The never-ending horse thread

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March 5th, 2021 at 12:52:16 PM permalink

.........................

I wasn't able to access the PPs with your link
but I did look at the results of a couple of the entries on Equibase
I don't have a pick but I was quite surprised by the pretty high Equibase speed figures for claimers
would like to hear why you liked who you like

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lilredrooster

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March 5th, 2021 at 3:24:27 PM permalink

..............................

they never made a book or movie about it but the 1978 TC series had to be at least one of the greatest ever
in all 3 races Affirmed and Alydar dueled each other far ahead of the rest of the field - Affirmed won all 3
in the Belmont Affirmed just nosed out Alydar - what a race

pick up the stretch drive at 2:05

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Johnzimbo

Johnzimbo

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March 5th, 2021 at 3:39:44 PM permalink

Still remember watching that race in a friend's bedroom, when I was 17. Their family had a bookie but don't recall if we placed any bets, but an amazing race for sure

Keeneone

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March 5th, 2021 at 4:22:53 PM permalink

Quote: Keeneone
Here is a race I was trying to handicap today (3/5):
Santa Anita Race #8
Click on Fabozzi's Ultimate PPs to see the chart:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/briswatch.cgi/public/Winstar_Farm_LLC/SIDNEY'S+CANDY/2007/summary.html
Who would you select to win with $100 to bet?
I quickly landed on #8 French Getaway (w/M. Smith riding), but upon further inspection (and more time looking at the race) I would actually bet the #9 Worthy Turk. I will provide reasons after the race but they may be obvious to others.

I was completely wrong about this race/field. Last place for my pick. Horse handicapping can be very humbling.

lilredrooster

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March 6th, 2021 at 11:04:22 AM permalink

Quote: Keeneone

I was completely wrong about this race/field. Last place for my pick. Horse handicapping can be very humbling.

you don't need to beat yourself up about that
you know a lot
you will get more than your fair share of winners - for sure

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Keeneone

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March 8th, 2021 at 11:25:34 AM permalink

Thanks. The chart of the race does state the horse was bumped after the start, eased late, and walked off.
https://www.equibase.com/premium/chartEmb.cfm?track=SA&raceDate=03/05/2021&cy=USA&rn=8
He is in my DRF horse watch list, so I will see where he shows up next. I felt he was a live longshot in the race (for many reasons) and would be put into the race early. Didn't happen, on to the next race...
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The Kentucky Derby is ~54 days away. Not sure if the site really needs a separate thread for the KD and the Triple Crown races. Maybe when we get one month out I will start a new thread for discussion.

lilredrooster

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March 10th, 2021 at 1:31:25 PM permalink

..................................

more than 2 dozen trainers, vets and others face criminal charges for doping horses
this is the first time that criminal charges have been presented against scofflaws such as these
previously, it was usually slaps on the wrist from racing officials
trainer Jorge Navarro is named as the ringleader
he has compiled an excellent lifetime record of 22% wins and 46% in the money finishes
now, everybody knows how he accomplished this

𝐥𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞m 𝐫𝐨𝐭 𝐢𝐧 𝐩𝐫𝐢𝐬𝐨𝐧

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/ncna1153126

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Last edited by: lilredrooster on Mar 10, 2021

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lilredrooster

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March 22nd, 2021 at 2:25:13 AM permalink

...............................

it's always nice to get something for free - cheapskate that I am
the linked site - timeform.us gives anyone who registers for a free account 2 free PPs per day in their unique format
and it's the best format I've ever seen
timeform focuses on pace - and just about all talented cappers believe that early speed is the most important angle in picking winners
because although closers are exciting to watch - they get blocked and forced very wide too often
of course, in picking winners, early speed choices need to have staying power
a horse with early speed doesn't need to be a frontrunner - he can be what timeform calls a "tracker" - others call a "stalker" - within striking distance of the leader

https://www.timeformus.com/login?ReturnUrl=/

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speedycrap

speedycrap

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March 22nd, 2021 at 8:59:20 AM permalink

Thanks for sharing.

speedycrap

speedycrap

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March 22nd, 2021 at 8:42:55 PM permalink

I just checked the site. It offered 2 free races per day. $6/day. $65/month.

lilredrooster

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April 6th, 2021 at 9:48:41 AM permalink

.....................

because of the rules of this forum I cannot post who this guy is or where he posted this
but he is a guy I respect for his skills as a capper
he posted his picks (see image) for Mahoning Valley today
the 1st race has already gone off - too late for that one
after the card is finished I will report how he did (his R.O.I.) based on $2.00 win bets for the top choice and $1.00 exacta box for the top 3 or top 2 if one is scratched
if the top horse is scratched I will report on the R.O.I. for the 2nd choice

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lilredrooster

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April 6th, 2021 at 1:16:43 PM permalink

....................

not a good day at all for my man
he won 3 win bets with very short prices and 3 exactas with very short prices

R.O.I. = negative 21%

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Keeneone

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April 6th, 2021 at 1:37:52 PM permalink

His longest M/L odds pick (5/1 #3 in Race 8) got bet hard and crushed the field.

I did catch the 4th race live. Two horse close finish with big bump down the lane and an inquiry. Resulted in no change. If you watch the replay, the #7 looks absolutely massive running next to the small #2.
https://www.hollywoodmahoningvalley.com/racing/racing-video-and-replay

lilredrooster

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April 6th, 2021 at 3:34:20 PM permalink

........................

in fairness to the guy - he makes the picks before he knows the real odds
also - betting the whole card and coming up a winner - very difficult to do
if he picked 2 or 3 races per day I think his skill would show up a lot more

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Keeneone

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April 6th, 2021 at 3:52:27 PM permalink

Quote: lilredrooster
........................
in fairness to the guy - he makes the picks before he knows the real odds
also - betting the whole card and coming up a winner - very difficult to do
if he picked 2 or 3 races per day I think his skill would show up a lot more
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I agree, thanks for posting the details.

lilredrooster

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April 8th, 2021 at 2:39:42 AM permalink

...........................

okay, let's give this guy another chance
here are his top picks for Oaklawn today
this will be the last time I post when he picks a whole card
he does something he calls "speed blast" picking just a few horses in short races
he did very well with that the 1st time I tracked it - if he posts that again I will re-post it here
I will report how he did based on win bets for his top picks

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SOOPOO

SOOPOO

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April 8th, 2021 at 5:21:54 AM permalink

Quote: lilredrooster
...........................

okay, let's give this guy another chance
here are his top picks for Oaklawn today
this will be the last time I post when he picks a whole card
he does something he calls "speed blast" picking just a few horses in short races
he did very well with that the 1st time I tracked it - if he posts that again I will re-post it here
I will report how he did based on win bets for his top picks

If someone is �forced� to pick an entire card, I would assume the handicapper would admit some (most?) of his picks are -EV given the large �take� the track does (is it 17%?)? The public has to be off a bit to allow there to be a real + EV situation. I have no idea what percentage of races that happens in, but it isn�t every race on the card.

lilredrooster

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April 8th, 2021 at 7:06:02 AM permalink

Quote: SOOPOO

If someone is �forced� to pick an entire card, I would assume the handicapper would admit some (most?) of his picks are -EV given the large �take� the track does (is it 17%?)? The public has to be off a bit to allow there to be a real + EV situation. I have no idea what percentage of races that happens in, but it isn�t every race on the card.

that's true but this guy wouldn't admit that - for reasons you might guess
2 key things - first, he doesn't know the real odds
any capper worth his salt and he sees 2 strong contenders - and one is 6/5 and one is 7/2 is going to bet the 7/2 choice even if the 6/5 choice is a little stronger
since he doesn't know the actual odds he can't make a decision like that

the second thing is that most find a good bet when they believe they have some insight into a particular race - such as there's 3 speedsters who are likely to duel early and knock themselves out giving an opportunity to the closers who aren't out of gas to run them down

nobody is going to be able to have a good insight into each of 9 races on a card

still and all, it's kind of interesting - to me anyway - that's why I posted it
he makes complex calculations from software to make his picks
but the greatest software in the world isn't going to have a winning day picking 9 races on a single card too often
if the software was wired in to the live odds - which is what the Benter/Woods syndicate did in Hong Kong back in the day - then I wouldn't be so negative

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lilredrooster

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April 8th, 2021 at 3:30:04 PM permalink

......................

another bad card from the pickster
he hit only 2 short price faves

R.O.I. - negative 54%

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lilredrooster

https://spectrumlocalnews.com/nc/charlotte/ap-top-news/2021/04/10/blackmore-becomes-1st-female-jockey-to-win-grand-national

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April 10th, 2021 at 10:01:57 AM permalink

.............................

what a race - Rachel Blackmore becomes the first female jockey in history to win England's Grand National - a few minutes ago - aboard Minella Times
40 horses - 30 hurdles - just under 4½ miles -

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Keeneone

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April 10th, 2021 at 10:17:51 AM permalink

What a wild and amazing race. Well done for the jock and connections.
Only 15 finished the event and sadly one runner did not survive (The Long Mile). :(
https://www.theguardian.com/sport/live/2021/apr/10/grand-national-2021-latest-news-and-tips-aintree-horse-racing-live

Johnzimbo

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April 10th, 2021 at 1:23:37 PM permalink

I remember watching this race on TV around 1982. My buddy and i of course had to pick a horse to root for. Between the small TV my roommates and I had, the crappy rabbit ear reception and the announcer's accent we had no clue who was winning or who had fallen and when the race was over my buddy just says "My horse had trouble" :)

ThatDonGuy

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April 10th, 2021 at 3:16:40 PM permalink

Quote: Johnzimbo
I remember watching this race on TV around 1982.

I remember listening to it on the radio on the BBC World Service Saturday morning sports program - especially the 1993 race, where the starting tape that they use instead of a starting gate didn't lift properly and they tried to call a false start, but most of the horses went around anyway; they managed to stop some more after the first lap, but 14 continued around. Eventually, the decision was made to call it a no contest and not to rerun the race that year.

Speaking of the Grand National and radio, here's some trivia: the first time the BBC was given permission to broadcast the Grand National, on radio, it was not allowed to have any sort of commentary during the race, out of fear that it would affect sales of newspapers covering the race. All it could have was the sound of the horses going around, which became a problem because the track was soft that day. (For similar reasons, news programs were not allowed after something like 7 PM each night; otherwise, the thinking was, who would bother buying the next day's newspapers?)

charliepatrick

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April 10th, 2021 at 3:44:24 PM permalink

Quote: lilredrooster
...Rachel Blackmore becomes the first female jockey in history to win England's Grand National...Minella Times...

For those not fully familiar with UK racing, The Grand National is one of the big jump races on the calendar. With 40 runners to choose from, usually it brings out people, including "housewives", many who never bet on anything else in the year, to bookmakers . They even provide customised betting forms. There are other "Grand Nationals" (Welsh, Scottish, Irish) but none as big as this one.

I sense this year the lockdown has saved bookmakers money (the odds drifted from 9/1 in the morning to 11/1 SP) as many would have bet on Rachel hoping for a fairy-tale result; especially after Cheltenham where she had been the leading jockey there - https://www.irishtimes.com/sport/racing/rachael-blackmore-caps-stellar-cheltenham-festival-with-top-jockey-title-1.4514871

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/horse-racing/56701659

fwiw I actually went to Aintree in 1987 and the course was packed out, an amazing atmosphere. Luckily they have big screens so you can see how the race unfolds. The previous evening I had also gone to an organised walk round the course led by an ex-jockey (probably raising money for the injured jockeys fund). Those fences are big!

Keeneone

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April 10th, 2021 at 6:13:42 PM permalink

Listening to a horse race on the radio with no call almost seems like a silly joke. Funny but true I guess.
There is even a video of the 1927 race (with no sound):

Those fences are really high, horses are amazingly athletic.

lilredrooster

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April 11th, 2021 at 1:46:19 AM permalink

.....................

Rachel Blackmore is the first female jockey to win it

unless you count Liz Taylor in 1944 in the movie "National Velvet"............................(-:\

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JohnGalt

JohnGalt

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April 12th, 2021 at 2:41:57 PM permalink

Link below relating to the owner of the winner and 8 of the 40 runners in the race.
He ended up losing the $5.2m tax case referred to in 2017

https://www.pokerstrategy.com/news/world-of-poker/$17.4m-Backgammon-win-for-racehorse-owner-_96740/

Keeneone

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April 12th, 2021 at 4:47:14 PM permalink

Quote: lilredrooster
.....................

Rachel Blackmore is the first female jockey to win it

unless you count Liz Taylor in 1944 in the movie "National Velvet"............................(-:\

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I recently watched (and enjoyed) National Velvet for the first time. The 12 year old LT could actually ride a bit. I also recently watched a UK movie, Dark Horse: The Incredible True Story of Dream Alliance, about a Grand National horse and his syndicate ownership group.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dark_Horse:_The_Incredible_True_Story_of_Dream_Alliance
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dream_Alliance

lilredrooster

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April 21st, 2021 at 4:13:59 AM permalink

.......................

okay, this is 𝙖𝙗𝙨𝙤𝙪𝙩𝙚𝙡𝙮 the last chance for this guy unless he wins here - I will track and report results for win and place
this is something he calls "trainer moves" - Tampa today - a few shots and mid price runners - ML anyway

I g🇦🇻e h🇮🇲 🇦🇳🇴🇹🇭🇪r c🇭🇦🇳🇨e c🇦🇺🇸🇪 I s🇦🇼 🇭🇮m c🇷🇺🇸🇭 🇹🇭e c🇦🇷d t🇼🇮🇨🇪 🇼🇭🇪🇳 I d🇮🇩🇳't p🇴🇸🇹

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Last edited by: lilredrooster on Apr 21, 2021

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lilredrooster

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April 21st, 2021 at 1:45:33 PM permalink

......................

he broke exactly even today - considering a bet on both Win and Place
he didn't get any good prices on his wins - there were lots of scratches

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charliepatrick

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April 21st, 2021 at 1:54:28 PM permalink

At 15/2 2nd should have shown a profit - https://www.skysports.com/racing/racecards/tampa-bay-downs/21-04-2021/1003681/race-3-claiming (although the book value of 121% looks fairly terrible).

Keeneone

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April 21st, 2021 at 5:33:03 PM permalink

Quote: lilredrooster
......................
he broke exactly even today - considering a bet on both Win and Place
he didn't get any good prices on his wins - there were lots of scratches
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Most of his picks went off at much lower odds compared with the ML. Some of the drop was likely due to scratches. He is either seeing/hearing stuff others are also seeing/hearing or he has a bit of a following depressing the odds. In the 8th race he had the 7/5 winner who was 12/1 morning line in an 8k claimer for F+M 3+. Big swing in price for a large track like TBay ime.

lilredrooster

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April 29th, 2021 at 2:20:08 AM permalink

.....................

this is the timeform.us breakdown of the Kentucky Oaks which can be thought of as the KY Derby for fillies. the big no. is a speed figure that considers pace and previous relevant races - maybe best thought of as a power no. - interestingly they have the fave Malathaat as being out of the money - the figures to the right of the big no. are the early pace and closing speed figures - up top on the right is how they see the early pace situation - timeform is highly regarded by many serious bettors - this race will be televised by NBCSP

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onenickelmiracle

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May 4th, 2021 at 4:00:26 PM permalink

How is Pimlico not in Maryland but in Chile? I bet on a race, and then realized how insane it was. The jockey was showing off standing up on the horse before the finish line for at least 50 feet.

I am a robot.

lilredrooster

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May 5th, 2021 at 4:02:00 AM permalink

.....................................................................

..............................(~:\

for the first time in my life I bet on Hong Kong racing, Happy Valley
race 1 went off at 6:45 a.m. est a few minutes ago

it's only a Wednesday there but there was $ millions in the pools

on another forum a poster claimed he was winning there by dutching the top 3 faves - there are many more horses in the field than in U.S. racing so the payouts on them is generally a lot larger

of course that he could win that easily sounds like a crock to me but I did it anyway - with a small amount - recreational stuff

the bet won and I almost doubled my money - pretty fun - of course it wouldn't have been as much fun if I'd have lost

I will do this again with small amounts for fun - like the old saying goes - "I'd rather be lucky than good"

Twin Spires offers betting on Hong Kong racing as well as on many European races some of which also have very large fields

not sure about the other legal U.S. books but I would guess they have this too - not wanting to be put in an uncompetitive postion

Quote: onenickelmiracle
How is Pimlico not in Maryland but in Chile? I bet on a race, and then realized how insane it was. The jockey was showing off standing up on the horse before the finish line for at least 50 feet.

the link explains how and why this happened

https://www.paulickreport.com/horseplayers-category/maryland-jockey-club-to-begin-latin-american-simulcasts-on-may-3/

I've seen an article on Chile racing and their takeouts are much higher than in the U.S.
I would guess that to be true with other South American venues

years ago when they were doing this I made a bet - I think Chile - an exacta box that won with a horse 7/1 over a 5/1

it paid $11.00 for a $1.00 bet

never again will I bet South American style

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Last edited by: lilredrooster on May 5, 2021

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onenickelmiracle

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May 5th, 2021 at 4:56:53 AM permalink

I really do not like any foreign racing. Australian I could tolerate but they run clockwise(which was the standard we defy), and all the horses have the same color flags on their bodies. I can never tell who is who, guess they don't want privilege. Big fields, hills, I'm always lost when the race begins. The Chilean racing, no thanks after the jockey showed off standing up for at least what I thought was before the finish line, I don't know.

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lilredrooster

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May 6th, 2021 at 3:26:27 AM permalink

......................

got a laugh out of this one
jock thought he won - started celebrating too soon - he hadn't actually crossed the wire - ended up 3rd
imagine if you had big bucks riding on his mount ....................................................................................................................(~:\

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onenickelmiracle

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May 6th, 2021 at 4:20:31 AM permalink

Quote: lilredrooster
......................

got a laugh out of this one
jock thought he won - started celebrating too soon - he hadn't actually crossed the wire - ended up 3rd
imagine if you had big bucks riding on his mount ....................................................................................................................(~:\

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Who can forget Leon Lett?

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ThatDonGuy

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May 9th, 2021 at 7:30:47 AM permalink

Quote: onenickelmiracle
Who can forget Leon Lett?

Never mind that - who can forget Willie Shoemaker...at the 1957 Kentucky Derby, no less?

Speaking of the Derby, Medina Spirit tested positive for excess betamethasone. Further tests still need to be done before the horse can be disqualified. In case anybody wonders if bets on the second-place horse would be paid off, I assume the same rules apply now as in 1969, when Dancer's Image was DQed after the fact; since the race was declared official, win bets on the horse originally declared as second are not paid.

unJon

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May 9th, 2021 at 7:51:47 AM permalink

Quote: ThatDonGuy
Never mind that - who can forget Willie Shoemaker...at the 1957 Kentucky Derby, no less?

Speaking of the Derby, Medina Spirit tested positive for excess betamethasone. Further tests still need to be done before the horse can be disqualified. In case anybody wonders if bets on the second-place horse would be paid off, I assume the same rules apply now as in 1969, when Dancer's Image was DQed after the fact; since the race was declared official, win bets on the horse originally declared as second are not paid.

If this holds up, Baffert should be banned for life.

The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.

billryan

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May 9th, 2021 at 5:15:06 PM permalink

Quote: unJon
Quote: ThatDonGuy
Never mind that - who can forget Willie Shoemaker...at the 1957 Kentucky Derby, no less?

Speaking of the Derby, Medina Spirit tested positive for excess betamethasone. Further tests still need to be done before the horse can be disqualified. In case anybody wonders if bets on the second-place horse would be paid off, I assume the same rules apply now as in 1969, when Dancer's Image was DQed after the fact; since the race was declared official, win bets on the horse originally declared as second are not paid.

If this holds up, Baffert should be banned for life.

Ban him retroactively. Strip him and his horses of their wins. How many of his drugged-up horses sold for inflated stud prices and are producing mediocre offspring that need performance enhancers to compete.

The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.

onenickelmiracle

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May 10th, 2021 at 1:46:02 AM permalink

I'm still confused about what trainers even do with horses after all these years especially when what they're supposed to do sounds like the work of veternarians.

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lilredrooster

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May 10th, 2021 at 1:59:57 AM permalink

Quote: onenickelmiracle
I'm still confused about what trainers even do with horses after all these years especially when what they're supposed to do sounds like the work of veternarians.

I'm assuming you're only referring to the drug issue
obviously trainers have a great amount of work to do with the horse that doesn't involve drugs

vets are employed by trainers and are under their thumbs

and they don't have the scruples that most Doctors who deal with humans have

the internal policies and traditions of racing specify that the Trainer has total responsibility for the condition of the horse

if there is a problem he cannot blame someone else

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Last edited by: lilredrooster on May 10, 2021

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onenickelmiracle

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May 11th, 2021 at 2:23:10 PM permalink

Are profit lines really real??? Sounds too good to be true. From what I see, it would seem like the tracks are handing you money if you get twice the true odds on a horse. I can see how maybe they're unreliable if horses are scratched, but I'm also not sure if they're constantly changing based on the current entries. I'm currently seeing 45/1 on a horse showing PL 12/1, 40 vs 18/1, 23 vs 9/1, and 11 vs 7/1. Who wouldn't bet these horses if they're showing the true odds?

2 horses 50 to 1 with PL odds 12 and 18 to 1 and neither looked like they had had a chance. Otherwise if this was real, you would kill it betting these horses.

Last edited by: onenickelmiracle on May 11, 2021

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lilredrooster

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May 11th, 2021 at 3:10:05 PM permalink

Quote: onenickelmiracle
Are profit lines really real??? Sounds too good to be true.

no, they're not real - in fact they're a joke - a sales tactic - making it look like they're giving you something great

nobody can know for sure the true odds on a horse - it's all speculation - the best estimate on the odds comes from the final tote odds - the aggregate judgement of the bettors themselves

I've looked at this stuff and it looked way out of whack - like it was done by a child - the best policy is to completely ignore it

there are 2 great signals IMHO you can get from the tote itself:

1. a favorite made cold by the bettors - i.e. morning line 7/5 and going off at 5/2 - he will lose, I believe, more often than the odds indicate

2. an extreme bet down - i.e. - 8/1 on the morning line bet down to 7/5 - this is insider money that brought the odds on this horse down

bet downs on maiden specials for first time starters are also excellent clues - if a horse is even money who has never even run before - somebody knows something

and these clues are best at the very big tracks - not where the local yokels bet out in the woods somewhere with $3,200 in the win pool

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Please don't feed the trolls

onenickelmiracle

Threads: 212
Posts: 8277

Joined: Jan 26, 2012

May 11th, 2021 at 3:50:37 PM permalink

If they're bogus, they're bogus. The only way to know for sure is to keep track of them against the results. You have to imagine most people aren't seeing them when the races are going on though. Of course the odds can change drastically even if you made a bet right before the start. If just a few bet $300, the odds could be wrecked.

Quote:
What do the "Profit Line" odds under the red arrow represent?
Published 01/18/2013|Updated 01/09/2019
What do the "Profit Line" odds represent?
Profit Line odds represent each horse's estimated probability of winning based on a rigorous computer study encompassing thousands of races. Profit Line odds incorporate numerous handicapping factors (speed, class, pace, form, weight, distance, surface, trainer, jockey, pedigree, recency, etc.). Profit Line odds are provided for all North American thoroughbred races (not available for harness and foreign races). There are countless ways to use Profit Line to help you make winning bets.

The horse with the lowest Profit Line odds is deemed to be the most likely winner according to Profit Line.

Look for Profit Line "overlays" (noted in GREEN). Whenever the current odds of a horse is greater than (or equal to) the Profit Line odds, the Profit Line odds are displayed in GREEN. Profit Line deems these "overlays" because the current odds are greater than (or equal to) to the horse's estimated fair chances of winning which means that you will get a higher return on your wager based on live odds than the Profit Line program predicted based on the handicapping factors evaluated.

If those words are untrue, sounds a little serious.

I am a robot.

lilredrooster

Threads: 232
Posts: 6575

Joined: May 8, 2015

June 2nd, 2021 at 1:38:20 PM permalink

........................

the doggy liked the #4 horse - the 4 broke well and got the lead and then when the 4 started to fade in the stretch the doggy started saying the race was rigged

Please don't feed the trolls

lilredrooster

Threads: 232
Posts: 6575

Joined: May 8, 2015

July 18th, 2021 at 2:15:47 AM permalink

....................

star jock Paco Lopez took a terrible spill in a big race - the Haskell
it's hard to watch this
anyway he's okay - - I've bet on lots of Paco's mounts and I'm very glad he's okay
Secretariat's jock was paralyzed from a spill after starring on Big Red

.

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Please don't feed the trolls

lilredrooster