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lilredrooster
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November 4th, 2021 at 3:59:04 AM permalink
_________


Bob Baffert is again standing tall at the Breeders Cup
running 8 horses
more scrutiny of him but basically his CA chums are again letting him skate yet again

this is a total disgrace to the sport and will give ammo to those who hate racing
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https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20211103-controversial-trainer-baffert-seeks-breeders-cup-classic-win


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lilredrooster
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November 5th, 2021 at 1:42:02 AM permalink
________

this is the Timeform breakdown of tomorrow's Breeders Cup Classic - the featured event of the weekend
last year more than $35 million was bet on this race alone
it's a long race with 4 frontruners - Knicks Go, Medina Spirit, Hot Rod Charlie, and Art Collector
they may very well knock themselves out dueling for the lead leaving an ideal trip for a plodding longshot to pick up the pieces

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charliepatrick
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November 5th, 2021 at 2:15:12 AM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

...tomorrow's Breeders Cup Classic - the featured event of the weekend
last year more than $35 million was bet on this race alone...an ideal trip for a plodding longshot to pick up the pieces...link to original post

5/2 and 3/1 seem good prices, however the odds for the rest are currently slightly bigger on UK bookies (possibly these are ante-post, if so you would lose if they were non runners)
https://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/2021-11-07-del-mar/00:40/winner
ThatDonGuy
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November 5th, 2021 at 9:15:38 AM permalink
I just noticed that the 3-year-olds get a 4-pound weight allowance. How long has that been happening?
lilredrooster
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November 5th, 2021 at 9:54:28 AM permalink
Quote: ThatDonGuy

I just noticed that the 3-year-olds get a 4-pound weight allowance. How long has that been happening?
link to original post




a very, very long time



other reasons to get a weight allowance -

a female running against males

the jock is an apprentice

to even out the competition typically when some horses have recently won a race and others haven't won a race in a few months
or some horses have won a higher caliber race and others haven't

this is an example of this from a Stakes race:

"Weight 122 Lbs. Non-winners of a race other than maiden, claiming, starter or state-bred allowance allowed 2 Lbs.; maidens allowed 4 Lbs."

a "maiden" is a horse that has never won



the weight thing is decided by the Racing Secretary and is spelled out in the conditions of the race which appears on the official program and in the official charts


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Last edited by: lilredrooster on Nov 5, 2021
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
mwalz9
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November 5th, 2021 at 10:14:59 AM permalink
I have a $10 free bet that must be used on that race. I dont follow it closely enough to make an educated decision.

Who ya got?
ThatDonGuy
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November 5th, 2021 at 11:11:45 AM permalink
I understand what allowances are (and what a handicap race is).

What I don't know is, how long has the Breeders Cup Classic been doing this? I thought all non-filly/mare horses had the same weight, like it is in the Kentucky Derby.

I found links to the Equibase charts going back to 1991, and even back then, 3-year-olds got 122 (and fillies/mares get a 3-pound allowance) - except that southern hemisphere 3-year-olds get 117 for some reason.


Horse racing question of the day: what states besides Kentucky ban betting entries (e.g. 1 & 1A), whether outright or on particular races? The last time I looked, Kentucky didn't allow them for any races with a purse of $1 million or higher, but I am having a little trouble determining if California has a similar rule.
Last edited by: ThatDonGuy on Nov 5, 2021
charliepatrick
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November 5th, 2021 at 12:24:14 PM permalink
Quote: mwalz9

I have a $10 free bet ...Who ya got?
link to original post

I put my £2 each way based on the name being Charlie (only got 9/2 rather than 5/1).
lilredrooster
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November 5th, 2021 at 1:07:05 PM permalink
Quote: ThatDonGuy



What I don't know is, how long has the Breeders Cup Classic been doing this? I thought all non-filly/mare horses had the same weight, like it is in the Kentucky Derby.

I found links to the Equibase charts going back to 1991, and even back then, 3-year-olds got 122 (and fillies/mares get a 3-pound allowance) - except that southern hemisphere 3-year-olds get 117 for some reason.


Horse racing question of the day: what states besides Kentucky ban betting entries (e.g. 1 & 1A), whether outright or on particular races? The last time I looked, Kentucky didn't allow them for any races with a purse of $1 million or higher, but I am having a little trouble determining if California has a similar rule.
link to original post




the Breeders Cup only goes back to 1984 - you found charts going back to 1991 - as far as I know they always have done this

the KY Derby is of course completely different because only 3 year olds are allowed to compete

I don't know the answer to your question about coupled entries

but I do know the reason some States banned them

the racing authorities believed, and they were surely correct - that some Trainers did not have good intentions with the coupled entries

specifically, some would use one horse as a "rabbit" knowing he couldn't win - but he would go as fast as he could early and duel with the other speed horses and often wear them down_________that made the job of the legitimate competitor - a tracker or a closer - easier

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Johnzimbo
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November 5th, 2021 at 3:14:10 PM permalink
Somewhere I have the Daily Racing Form from the initial BC in 1984. If I can find I will see what the conditions were for the first Classic
ThatDonGuy
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November 6th, 2021 at 11:47:13 AM permalink
NBC Sports Network was just discussing that BC Juvenile Turf incident - and how a significant number of bettors were burned by the 1 being scratched, so their Pick 3/4/5 bets were transferred to the opening line favorite. A couple of the talking heads suggested changing the rules for this sort of thing, but to what? I vaguely remember when the Pick 6 started in California, there was a separate betting pool for situations where a horse was scratched, although this was before carryovers (every day's Pick Six pool went 75% to whoever picked the most winners and 25% to the second-most).

BTW, the closest thing I could find to this situation in the California Horse Racing Board rules, which are in effect at Del Mar, is rule 1974(b):
"If a horse is removed from the wagering pool due to a totalizator error, or due to any other error, and neither the trainer nor the owner is at fault, the horse shall start in the race as a non-wagering interest for the purse only and shall be disregarded for pari-mutuel purposes."
charliepatrick
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November 6th, 2021 at 2:04:50 PM permalink
I first heard about this on the live coverage on UK (from NBC) this evening and then saw the article: https://www.racingpost.com/news/breeders-cup-juvenile-turf-1-2-paid-out-as-winners-after-pre-race-debacle/520526
UK bookies realise the goodwill that can be got from doing the right thing, even if it costs them money; so many paid out on both results, some even didn't apply Rule4 (a rule that applies to pay-outs on board or SP prices when horse(s) are withdrawn before a new market is formed).
lilredrooster
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November 6th, 2021 at 2:53:22 PM permalink
__________


just became aware of an astonishing stat

favorites across all of thoroughbred racing win just about 33% of the time

but the Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies favorites, with the win yesterday, have now won 19 of 38 times___________50%

that's really remarkable - especially considering that you would expect 2 year olds to be less predictable than the older horses


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lilredrooster
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November 7th, 2021 at 1:23:12 PM permalink
___________


𝑬𝑿𝑨𝑪𝑻𝑨 𝑶𝑽𝑬𝑹𝑳𝑨𝒀


it's been my admittedly unscientific but nonetheless compelling (to me) observation/speculation that exacta payouts on the low odds horses are often very generous

the accepted way to calculate a fair exacta payout after the takeout is considered is this:

(odds on the winning horse) times (odds on the 2nd place finisher + 1)______this will give you a fair payout on a $1.00 bet after the takeout

throughout racing, in the long run, the first or 2nd fave wins about 55% of all races

here is a look at some $2.00 exacta payouts at Churchill from yesterday:

please note that as far as I know all tracks will allow a $1.00 exacta bet as long as it is a box or wheel - unlike win bets

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Race 2_________2.50/1.40__________fair payout__________12.00__________actual payout_________23.40

Race 4_________2.00/2.30__________fair payout__________13.20__________actual payout_________20.60

Race 10________3.70/2.60__________fair payout__________ 26.64__________actual payout_________37.60


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why does this happen?
because typical horseplayers are longshot lovers
they overbet the shots causing them to get less than a fair payout on them_________and underbet the low odds horses causing them to get more than a fair payout


here are 2 payouts from Churchill where longshots came in the 1st and 2nd positions
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11/6____Race 5__________7.40/14.10___________fair payout___________217.44___________actual payout__________125.00

11/5____Race 8__________21.10/7.70___________fair payout___________367.14___________actual payout__________288.20


actually, horses priced at 7.40 and 7.70 are not true longshots
generally longshots are considered to be horses priced at 10/1 or more

I didn't want to spend a lot of time looking for that - it doesn't happen too often
but in those instances when it does happen - the payouts are usually even worse than shown


of course, when a longshot lover gets a $288 payout for a $2.00 bet he's hardly going to care if it's short of what would be fair

but he's never ever going to be a long run winner playing that way

all of this is considering that no handicapping at all is done

if a player is an excellent handicapper than these longshot payouts may be more than fair

if he's a poor handicapper - which is often the case - he's really going to get creamed in the long run


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mcallister3200
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November 7th, 2021 at 2:06:16 PM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

__________


just became aware of an astonishing stat

favorites across all of thoroughbred racing win just about 33% of the time

but the Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies favorites, with the win yesterday, have now won 19 of 38 times___________50%

that's really remarkable - especially considering that you would expect 2 year olds to be less predictable than the older horses


.
link to original post



There might be SOMETHING there, but a sample size of 38 is going to have an awful lot of noise.
lilredrooster
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November 7th, 2021 at 2:57:57 PM permalink
___________


a further observation/speculation on the exacta pools re the big tracks only
I don't trust the little tracks

those that bet NYRA (Belmont, Saratoga and Aqueduct) are sharper than those that bet in the Midwest/South pools - Churchill and Keeneland

although anyone can bet anywhere due to technology - still I believe there are different characters to the different locales

I couldn't find anything this extreme at Belmont - but I could easily find it at Churchill

I believe that NYRA bettors don't fall for the longshot sucker bets anywhere near as much as they do at Churchill and Keeneland

CA (Santa Anita & Del Mar) seems to me to be in between the 2 - but IMHO the NYRA pools are the hardest to beat

I don't consider the Gulfstream bettors to be as sharp as NYRA bettors - but their pools are hard to beat too


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lilredrooster
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November 27th, 2021 at 3:01:47 AM permalink
__________


on another forum there is a guy who has been crunching tons of racing data for almost 20 years
something like 95% of his crunches show a loss
maybe 3% show breaking even
there is one where he recently posted results of 500 races that shows around a 14.5% profit

these types of bets don't happen often
they are win bets on horses going off at less than 1/2 - if it was a money line NFL bet that would mean less than -200

this happens because the long shot lovers get excited when a horse is bet down that low - the odds on all of the others rise tremendously

I play to scan the races and whenever I see a fave bet way down below 1/2 I will make a win bet doing no handicapping at all

this guy is kind of weird - he doesn't bet - he just crunches data - but I trust him - his data seems realistic - I've read this before about horses bet way down - but I never before seen a post of data such as this

a bet that pays so little is a kind of bet many gamblers, including me, hate
but I will hold my nose and make it anyway


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the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
lilredrooster
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December 7th, 2021 at 2:45:34 AM permalink
____________


Medina Spirit, the disputed KY Derby winner died suddenly Monday after a workout

a cardiac event is the suspected cause of death

a full necropsy will be conducted - there is a great deal of suspicion surrounding this horse

he was a tough, game horse - it wasn't his fault that his trainer messed with him

he finished 1st or 2nd in in 9 out of 10 races - all but one was a high grade stakes race


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https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2021/12/06/medina-spirit-horse-death/


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lilredrooster
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January 2nd, 2022 at 1:51:42 AM permalink
_____________


a new movie about racing - "Jockey" - is getting rave reviews

the lead actor, Clifton Collins, worked as a grunt at the track to get the respect of riders involved in the moviemaking

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the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
lilredrooster
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January 4th, 2022 at 8:41:35 AM permalink
____________


Bob Baffert, the disgraced trainer of the Derby winner found with illegal drugs in his system is now saying 𝙝𝙚 𝙬𝙞𝙡𝙡 𝙤𝙛𝙛𝙚𝙧 𝙖 𝙧𝙚𝙬𝙖𝙧𝙙 to whoever put illegal drugs into the horses under his care

sounds like he wants to blame a groom for it - or something like that

the link details some of the illegal drugs associated with this bad actor who needs to be kicked out of racing completely

the guy is totally disgusting - makes me want to puke
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https://www.paulickreport.com/news/the-biz/nyra-adds-to-baffert-files-trainer-said-someone-gave-bute-to-his-horses-would-offer-reward-to-solve-case/


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Dieter
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January 4th, 2022 at 9:11:18 AM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

____________


Bob Baffert, the disgraced trainer of the Derby winner found with illegal drugs in his system is now saying 𝙝𝙚 𝙬𝙞𝙡𝙡 𝙤𝙛𝙛𝙚𝙧 𝙖 𝙧𝙚𝙬𝙖𝙧𝙙 to whoever put illegal drugs into the horses under his care
link to original post



Can you clarify?

Is he offering a reward to whoever drugged the horses, or offering a reward for information in solving the case?
May the cards fall in your favor.
lilredrooster
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January 4th, 2022 at 9:58:27 AM permalink
Quote: Dieter

Quote: lilredrooster

____________


Bob Baffert, the disgraced trainer of the Derby winner found with illegal drugs in his system is now saying 𝙝𝙚 𝙬𝙞𝙡𝙡 𝙤𝙛𝙛𝙚𝙧 𝙖 𝙧𝙚𝙬𝙖𝙧𝙙 to whoever put illegal drugs into the horses under his care
link to original post



Can you clarify?

Is he offering a reward to whoever drugged the horses, or offering a reward for information in solving the case?
link to original post



yes, you caught my error - sorry about that

he is offering a reward to somebody for helping solve the case according to the link

although I don't believe there is any case - in racing the Trainer is solely responsible for the condition of the horse

if there is a problem of any kind with the horse his blaming someone else will not be acceptable to the authorities


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Dieter
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January 4th, 2022 at 10:26:58 AM permalink
Thanks. That is at least consistent.

Even if it's not the trainer's fault, it would seem to still be the trainer's responsibility.
May the cards fall in your favor.
billryan
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January 4th, 2022 at 11:54:11 AM permalink
Maybe he can hire the same investigators that OJ is using.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
lilredrooster
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January 20th, 2022 at 3:06:40 AM permalink
_____________


the new movie "Jockey" is getting rave reviews - only in theaters at this time
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the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
lilredrooster
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January 24th, 2022 at 5:00:03 AM permalink
____________


great archived article from Barry Meadow re a horseplayer who has made millions - rebates are part of it

Barry Meadow is probably the most respected author and handicapper out there

of course, anybody seeing a story like this would suspect it's bogus - but if it comes from Barry - no way - it's not bogus

in 2002 this guy, Tim Haley, pushed $24 million in bets thru - and he quotes an R.O.I. of just 0.95% against the takeout - that's not counting rebates

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https://horseracinggold.com/Horse-Racing-System-Article-2.htm


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lilredrooster
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February 22nd, 2022 at 1:20:26 AM permalink
_____________


very high win % trainer Bob Baffert has been slapped down hard by racing officials - due to a failed drug test

his horse from last year - Medina Spirit - has been stripped of his Kentucky Derby win and the 2nd place finisher Mandaloun will be declared the winner for the record books

also, Baffert will not be allowed to enter any of his horses in any of this year's Triple Crown races - this has got to sting

Baffert has pumped up his lawyers to challenge this - they don't have a chance - might as well save money and hire some kid right out of law school


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https://www.nbcnews.com/news/sports/medina-spirit-stripped-kentucky-derby-win-trainer-bob-baffert-fined-su-rcna17092


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billryan
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February 22nd, 2022 at 5:19:49 AM permalink
Medina Spirit dropped dead last fall. Healthy three-year-old horses don't do that. Baffert should be banned outright, but no one will do that.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
mcallister3200
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February 22nd, 2022 at 7:11:58 AM permalink
Quote: billryan

Baffert should be banned outright, but no one will do that.
link to original post



Agree. I realize cheating is rampant in horse racing so there would be an argument that a ban is harsh when thereís so many cheaters getting a slap on the wrist or unpunished: However, I donít think the sport can claim with a straight face to have much or any integrity by allowing the guy to continue. If you let him back, you know heís going to do it again or incentivizing others to cheat because theyíre pretty much telling you itís ok or expected by not issuing severe enough penalties.
Gialmere
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February 22nd, 2022 at 8:38:54 AM permalink
The trouble is, like it or not, Baffert is the only household name celebrity the sport can boast. Even his bad publicity is arguably better than no publicity since, at the very least, it gets people talking about horse racing.
Have you tried 22 tonight? I said 22.
mcallister3200
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February 22nd, 2022 at 9:09:19 AM permalink
I donít know if thatís right or not. At least for me, a complete casual, heís THE reason the sport is synonymous with cheating in my mind. So, at least for someone like me, I donít know if a bad rep is better than no rep.
DRich
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February 22nd, 2022 at 9:20:14 AM permalink
Quote: mcallister3200

I donít know if thatís right or not. At least for me, a complete casual, heís THE reason the sport is synonymous with cheating in my mind. So, at least for someone like me, I donít know if a bad rep is better than no rep.
link to original post



I am like you just a casual fan. I only watch the big televised races and he is the only trainer I know. The only other name I know is D. Wayne Lucas whom I believe is an owner but I am not even sure about that.

I did see American Pharaoh at Del Mar and that is the extent of my historical racing knowledge.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
billryan
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February 22nd, 2022 at 9:41:41 AM permalink
Quote: DRich

Quote: mcallister3200

I donít know if thatís right or not. At least for me, a complete casual, heís THE reason the sport is synonymous with cheating in my mind. So, at least for someone like me, I donít know if a bad rep is better than no rep.
link to original post



I am like you just a casual fan. I only watch the big televised races and he is the only trainer I know. The only other name I know is D. Wayne Lucas whom I believe is an owner but I am not even sure about that.

I did see American Pharaoh at Del Mar and that is the extent of my historical racing knowledge.
link to original post



I will double your knowledge. Lucas was the first trainer to win the three Triple Crown races in a single year with two different horses.
I think he is the only one but not certain.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
Gialmere
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July 31st, 2022 at 10:19:18 PM permalink


Here's an odd ending to a race. It's making the rounds because of the name of the eventual winner. But never mind the politics. Can you imagine having big money riding on Moro Flyboy?
Have you tried 22 tonight? I said 22.
camapl
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August 1st, 2022 at 1:28:19 PM permalink
Quote: Gialmere



Here's an odd ending to a race. It's making the rounds because of the name of the eventual winner. But never mind the politics. Can you imagine having big money riding on Moro Flyboy?
link to original post



Wow, about how often is the jockey dislodged from his horse during a race on average? And how often is it from the lead horse? I could see this happening more often in the pack, both in saddle and on buggyÖ
Expectation is the root of all heartache.
Johnzimbo
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camapl
August 1st, 2022 at 4:13:36 PM permalink
That was a few weeks ago and the question asked is...the jockey hits the horse right handed once and it veers left...and then he does it a second time for some reason, not sure if or what he was thinking
Gundy
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camapl
August 2nd, 2022 at 4:17:21 AM permalink
Quote: Johnzimbo

That was a few weeks ago and the question asked is...the jockey hits the horse right handed once and it veers left...and then he does it a second time for some reason, not sure if or what he was thinking
link to original post



Yep. This is the jockey's fault.
lilredrooster
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September 9th, 2022 at 3:22:46 AM permalink
____________


hilarious - to me anyway - Kramer (Seinfeld) gets a hot tip on a horse and takes action - it all starts at 1:32 in the vid

Kramer is the funniest character on that show imo - funnier than Seinfeld himself - best Seinfeld episode ever imo






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there is a flaw in the script - it shows him tearing up his tickets - but he somehow cashes anyway



..
Last edited by: lilredrooster on Sep 9, 2022
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
lilredrooster
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September 11th, 2022 at 12:12:27 AM permalink
__________


things go a little better for KY betting horseplayers at Ellis Park and KY Downs - re breakage - payouts to the exact penny

traditionally breakage goes to the 20 cent point - meaning a place bet that figures to pay $2.99 will only pay $2.80 and the bettor loses almost 25% of his profit

although a few tracks have paid down to the 10 cent point

the tracks have tried to justify this by saying having mutual tellers deal with all that change will slow things down too much - total nonsense


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https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/261362/penny-breakage-payoffs-underway-at-ellis-park


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Last edited by: lilredrooster on Sep 11, 2022
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
lilredrooster
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April 6th, 2023 at 1:55:45 AM permalink
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there is a very interesting book - called "The Wisdom of Crowds" by James Surowiecki

he points to various things including horse racing to show that the speculation of crowds is often very accurate

in thoroughbred racing in the U.S. the public's top pick - the favorite - wins about 37% of all the races

- a bet on only faves would greatly reduce the loss due to the takeout but would not overcome it - bettors avoid betting on the fave because of the well documented favorite/longshot bias - they greatly prefer big payouts to small ones

the 37% figure is truly an amazing stat

I don't believe that there is one single handicapper in the entire world who could match that if he had to make a pick in every race and had only the morning line and the past performances to use for reference


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the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
Johnzimbo
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April 6th, 2023 at 7:07:52 AM permalink
I had always read it was 33% of the time the favorite wins.
lilredrooster
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April 6th, 2023 at 7:20:22 AM permalink
Quote: Johnzimbo

I had always read it was 33% of the time the favorite wins.
link to original post


the % has increased in the last few years because of the shrinking field size due to various issues

for example - today at Aqueduct:

4 races with just 6 horses entered - 3 races with just 7 - and 1 race with 8

and there are sure to be scratches and probably at least a couple of races will be run with just 5 horses

ridiculous - it didn't used to be like that

the chart in the link shows the average field size as being 9.03 in 1985 and then it began shrinking

in 2022 the average field size was 7.59


https://jockeyclub.com/default.asp?section=FB&area=10


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Last edited by: lilredrooster on Apr 6, 2023
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
avianrandy
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September 3rd, 2023 at 2:43:57 AM permalink
Last night I seen a question stating sometimes the finish of a horse race is so close they have to use a photo finish to determine the winner. The question was what is it called when a winner cannot be determined even by photo finish?
answer given was a dead heat
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