Betting the 2016 Election
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34 members have voted
Quote: AxelWolfI have bets on this and and I can't even remember what they are now.
?
I will most likely be giving you a 100, unless of course, Hillary dies, withdraws, or gets disqualified before Nov. 8. If so you owe me 500. Bet made at Bocho Sushi.
Quote: MaxPenI will most likely be giving you a 100, unless of course, Hillary dies, withdraws, or gets disqualified before Nov. 8. If so you owe me 500. Bet made at Bocho Sushi.
Did I have any of that action or no?
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/general/26292-presidential-betting/
I'm not sure why that thread keeps falling off the grid, but wanted to link it here, and wish it were possible to combine them.
Quote: RSDid I have any of that action or no?
I have no action with you at all. As I only keep notes as to who I directly have action with. However, I do recall you taking 20% of Axel's action. That's just off of memory though.
Quote: beachbumbabsThere are several bets offered and booked in this thread, including mine with MaxPen :
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/general/26292-presidential-betting/
I'm not sure why that thread keeps falling off the grid, but wanted to link it here, and wish it were possible to combine them.
Not sure why that thread died off. I actually thought I would get more action on that one. I am not going to read the whole thread but that was for Hillary to get over 50% of the popular vote. According to my notes I have action with you and DRich on that.
Oh ya I bet she wouldn't withdraw, or get disqualified before Nov. 8 It's a push if she kills over right?Quote: MaxPenI will most likely be giving you a 100, unless of course, Hillary dies, withdraws, or gets disqualified before Nov. 8. If so you owe me 500. Bet made at Bocho Sushi.
$100 in Silver please.
I think I have action with Mike and someone else as well.
I highly doubt RS took action laying odds on anything. I had to give him 10,000 to 1 on a bet one time(no joke). He wouldn't even lay 100 to 1 he could say the alphabet. He would probably want odds.
Quote: WizardTime for an update. As of late 10/24/16:
Clinton: 83.0%
Trump: 16.4%.
Two days later and Trump continues to gradually climb:
Clinton: 82.3%
Trump: 16.8%
Quote: WizardTwo days later and Trump continues to gradually climb:
Clinton: 82.3%
Trump: 16.8%
Maybe that's because he hasn't said anything particularly reprehensible the last few days. He keeps coming back, like mold.
Frightening to think where this election might be going if he didn't shoot himself in the foot on a near-daily basis.
I'm beginning to think that maybe the best price on Clinton will be the day before the election. I had originally thought she'd be something like -7000 by then, but apparently, some bettors still like Trump.
Quote: mcallister3200For another, anyone running for president is going to be accused of everything under the sun, many false so anything said about trump or hill right now should be taken with a spoonful of salt.
Trump. Admitted. That. He. Grabs. Women. By. The. Pussy. On. Video.
I just wish Hillary would finally admit that She. Grabs. Women. By. The. Pussy.Quote: ams288Trump. Admitted. That. He. Grabs. Women. By. The. Pussy. On. Video.
Quote: AxelWolfI just wish Hillary would finally admit that She. Grabs. Women. By. The. Pussy.
Are you suggesting that her and Bill were tag teaming Monica?
Quote: AxelWolfI just wish Hillary would finally admit that She. Grabs. Women. By. The. Pussy.
So do I!
It's about time we have our first (openly) gay President!
Quote: ams288So do I!
It's about time we have our first (openly) gay President!
Why restrict it to humans? That's so speciesist. I want an actual pussy in the White House. My cat doesn't want the job, but she's sure she has some friends that would do a much better job than either Hillary or Donald.
Quote: WizardTime for an update. As of late 10/24/16:
Clinton: 83.0%
Trump: 16.4%.
What a difference a few Emails make. As of 11/1/16:
Clinton: 72.2%
Trump: 26.5%
Quote: WizardWhat a difference a few Emails make. As of 11/1/16:
Clinton: 72.2%
Trump: 26.5%
If by a 'few' you mean the 650,000 of Hillary's emails that were found on ANTHONY WEINER's computer... oh yeah, and Huma Abedin had "no idea" how they got there!!!!! Just the woman I want as chief of staff (Abedin) for just the woman I want as president (Clinton)......
What odds can you get on Trump winning the popular vote but losing the Electoral College?
Quote: WizardWhat a difference a few Emails make. As of 11/1/16:
Clinton: 72.2%
Trump: 26.5%
You would not have that cavalier attitude regarding the situation if you were operating overseas clandestinely and you had to run for your life because of careless exposure. There are 5 separate FBI investigations surrounding the Clinton's and associates. Are people really crazy enough to vote for a President that will wind up impeached upon assumption of office?
Quote: SOOPOO
What odds can you get on Trump winning the popular vote but losing the Electoral College?
Don't see one for Trump, but Election Winner doesn't win popular vote is +500 on dimes.
Quote: MaxPenYou would not have that cavalier attitude regarding the situation if you were operating overseas clandestinely and you had to run for your life because of careless exposure. There are 5 separate FBI investigations surrounding the Clinton's and associates. Are people really crazy enough to vote for a President that will wind up impeached upon assumption of office?
Likely. The problem for the republicans is that they nominated trump, had they made a safe choice Hillary would be crushed (she could still lose but she won't get crushed). Yeah I know why trump got nominated sick of the establishment, but you don't play a backup quarterback in front of a starter just because the starter is an asshole, you play to win.
The problem for the dems is they still nominated Hill, Bernie would have crushed trump instead of what's looking to be a close race between two candidates that both had so much obvious baggage it could have been avoided.
Quote: mcallister3200Likely. The problem for the republicans is that they nominated trump, had they made a safe choice Hillary would be crushed (she could still lose but she won't get crushed). Yeah I know why trump got nominated sick of the establishment, but you don't play a backup quarterback in front of a starter just because the starter is an asshole, you play to win.
The problem for the dems is they still nominated Hill, Bernie would have crushed trump instead of what's looking to be a close race between two candidates that both had so much obvious baggage it could have been avoided.
Couldn't agree more.
Clinton 71.43%
Trump 28.57%
Quote: WizardWhat a difference a few Emails make. As of 11/1/16:
Clinton: 72.2%
Trump: 26.5%
The tide has shifted against Trump in the last four days. As of 11/5/16:
Clinton: 77.9%
Trump: 22.0%
Quote: MaxPenAre people really crazy enough to vote for a President that will wind up impeached upon assumption of office?
I will bet you any amount of money up to $100,000 that if elected Hillary Clinton will not be impeached in her first year of being the President. Wizard as escrow?
Quote: SOOPOOWizard as escrow?
I accept. I would happily bet your side too.
Quote: SOOPOOI will bet you any amount of money up to $100,000 that if elected Hillary Clinton will not be impeached in her first year of being the President. Wizard as escrow?
The House of Representatives is the body that would vote to impeach. Based on what I've read/heard from some of my DC friends, Republicans are expected to lose about 15-20 seats, which would reduce their numbers from the current 246 to about 228. 218 constitutes a majority. You will have new members, members from swing districts, etc. Instances where the GOP caucus votes as a block will be rare. Very, very difficult to see how articles of impeachment, whether one agrees with them or not, would be approved. Far more likely that they'll never reach the House floor.
Define impeached, isn't that just a process of being accused or questioned about something? She could be impeached but not found guilty. I may have saved you and Mike 100k. This may technically fall under the no weasel clause.Quote: SOOPOOI will bet you any amount of money up to $100,000 that if elected Hillary Clinton will not be impeached in her first year of being the President. Wizard as escrow?
Besides they wouldn't dare impeach a really sick president would they? (-;
Quote: AxelWolfDefine impeached, isn't that just a process of being accused or questioned about something? She could be impeached but not found guilty.
Impeachment requires a majority vote in the House. Conviction requires a 2/3 majority vote in the Senate -- according to my memory of high school social studies class. Bill Clinton and Andrew Johnson were both impeached, but found not guilty; Nixon resigned before hearings could begin -- according to a 30 second google search.
(If I'm wrong in any of this, someone please correct me.)
While a conviction in the Senate will never happen, an impeachment against Hillary could go either way (with a lot depending on how the voting for Congress goes this week and also in 2018). Someone put up a line and I might be willing to bet up to $100 on it
Max would probably give you odds on that bet.. He will probably put in a parlay adding that she's in prison within a year.Quote: TomGImpeachment requires a majority vote in the House. Conviction requires a 2/3 majority vote in the Senate -- according to my memory of high school social studies class. Bill Clinton and Andrew Johnson were both impeached, but found not guilty; Nixon resigned before hearings could begin -- according to a 30 second google search.
(If I'm wrong in any of this, someone please correct me.)
While a conviction in the Senate will never happen, an impeachment against Hillary could go either way (with a lot depending on how the voting for Congress goes this week and also in 2018). Someone put up a line and I might be willing to bet up to $100 on it
Quote: AxelWolfMax would probably give you odds on that bet.. He will probably put in a parlay adding that she's in prison within a year.
Congress is powerless right now. The DOJ is corrupt to the core and it is so bad Trey Gowdy is pleading for the voters to do the right thing. I would like to hear SooPoo's opinion of Hillary's fate when she loses. My guess is the money behind her takes her out. I have no interest in action based on her winning.
Quote: WizardThe tide has shifted against Trump in the last four days. As of 11/5/16:
Clinton: 77.9%
Trump: 22.0%
I'm curious how these have changed today with FBI director Comey's new letter...
Odds have really shifted in just a couple of days
Just a couple days ago, most sites had Clinton at 1/3
Most sites have moved the odds to 1/5 to1/6
That's a big shift in just 2 days
Its the smart bet, you make a nice profit and collect in a couple of days
http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election-2016/winner
Quote: WizardThe tide has shifted against Trump in the last four days. As of 11/5/16:
Clinton: 77.9%
Trump: 22.0%
One day later, with nothing of interest in the news the odds have shifted significantly:
Clinton: 83.0%
Trump: 16.8%
I can't remember such an up and down market for an election before, and I've paid close attention to all of them since Gore/Bush in 2000.
I'm trying to broker a point spread bet with a friend and offered him Trump +91 or Clinton -91 electoral votes.
Trump alone pays more than Reps control WH and congress on 5d. Not enough to arb it, but there's bound to be value in a market like that.
Quote: MaxPenCongress is powerless right now. The DOJ is corrupt to the core and it is so bad Trey Gowdy is pleading for the voters to do the right thing. I would like to hear SooPoo's opinion of Hillary's fate when she loses. My guess is the money behind her takes her out. I have no interest in action based on her winning.
I think if Hillary loses she goes back to giving paid speeches, only change is that her asking price will likely double. I see no future for her in any elected position, or even appointed one. That is IF she loses. I expect her to be elected President. And with the changing demographics, I expect GWB to be the last Republican President for many a decade.
Haven't been this confident since my bets against Trump getting the nomination.
Quote: WizardOne day later, with nothing of interest in the news the odds have shifted significantly:
Clinton: 83.0%
Trump: 16.8%
I can't remember such an up and down market for an election before, and I've paid close attention to all of them since Gore/Bush in 2000.
I'm trying to broker a point spread bet with a friend and offered him Trump +91 or Clinton -91 electoral votes.
Right now, the spread on 5d is 99.5 with Trump -115 and Hil -105.
Quote: Wizard...
I'm trying to broker a point spread bet with a friend and offered him Trump +91 or Clinton -91 electoral votes.
That would be a good bet for the Clinton side. I think it will be in the high 90's
Quote: AyecarumbaThat would be a good bet for the Clinton side. I think it will be in the high 90's
The line moved since I offered 91. It is now 96.5.
Quote: WizardThe line moved since I offered 91. It is now 96.5.
What time do you think CNN will call it? I don't want to sit around all night watching their coverage, but I need to know when to start the "Concession Speech" countdown timer...
PST/Hawaii/Alaska polls close at 11 pm EST.
Quote: AyecarumbaWhat time do you think CNN will call it? I don't want to sit around all night watching their coverage, but I need to know when to start the "Concession Speech" countdown timer...
PST/Hawaii/Alaska polls close at 11 pm EST.
CNN is always way behind Fox News and MSNBC with their calls.... its odd. Fox/MSNBC/AP will call a state well before CNN and the CNN talking heads have to pretend like the rest of the world isn't ahead of them.
Quote: ams288CNN is always way behind Fox News and MSNBC with their calls.... its odd. Fox/MSNBC/AP will call a state well before CNN and the CNN talking heads have to pretend like the rest of the world isn't ahead of them.
My memories are faint, but I thought Fox was behind most others in 2012. It made it look like Romney had a chance for longer.
Quote: tringlomaneMy memories are faint, but I thought Fox was behind most others in 2012. It made it look like Romney had a chance for longer.
Fox is usually one of the firsts - they made headlines in 2012 because after Ohio was called for Obama, Karl Rove had an on-air meltdown and questioned the call. Then Megyn Kelly was forced to walk down the hall live on-air to interrogate the Decision Desk guys that made the call.
Quote: WizardOn the topic of election betting, I recently bet a friend $500 at 7 to 1 that Paul Ryan will be elected in 2020.
Donald Trump will never let that happen.... the next nominee will need the support of the Trumpsters, and they'll never go for Ryan.
Quote: WizardOn the topic of election betting, I recently bet a friend $500 at 7 to 1 that Paul Ryan will be elected in 2020.
You're friend got a deal. He should have to lay at least 3 times that and it would still be friendly. Just my humble opinion.
Quote: ams288Donald Trump will never let that happen.... the next nominee will need the support of the Trumpsters, and they'll never go for Ryan.
I totally agree
If there is somebody that holds a grudge, its Donald Trump
Paul Ryan may be the best nominee for the Republican party
But
Trump has no interest in what's best for the party.
He is a fanatic on settling scores
Trump will undermine Ryan and he has the influence to do that and will do it.
Quote: terapinedI totally agree
If there is somebody that holds a grudge, its Donald Trump
Paul Ryan may be the best nominee for the Republican party
But
Trump has no interest in what's best for the party.
He is a fanatic on settling scores
Trump will undermine Ryan and he has the influence to do that and will do it.
I disagree...sort of. I think Trump gets locked out of the party as the Republicans regroup for 2024, and close ranks on "outsiders". Unfortunately, I don't think the Republicans beat H. Clinton in 2020 unless she actually lets the Saudis send Israel back to the stone age.
Trump seems a lot like Teddy Roosevelt at the turn of the 20th century. I look for him to be back in 2020 with his version of the "Bull Moose" third party, splitting the conservatives, and handing the Democrats back the White House.
Quote: AyecarumbaI look for him to be back in 2020 with his version of the "Bull Moose" third party, splitting the conservatives, and handing the Democrats back the White House.
I don't. I predict he will not run in 2020. However I agree that Trump will not endorse Ryan. It could be a battle between Ryan and a Trump apprentice.
I still stand by the bet. I will say firmly that Paul Ryan will be president eventually. Maybe not 2020, but by 2028. That I would put even money on.
