Betting the 2016 Election

Quote: kewlj

In the case of the democrats, 40% of the delegates are super delegates, and 90% of those super delegates are already committed to Hillary Clinton, meaning Hillary is more than a third of the way to the nomination before a single vote has been cast. This means out of the delegates that are won by the actual election process, Sanders would need to win about 75% to actually win the democtratic nomination.

If you feel so strongly about this, then you should be betting big on Hillary.

Quote: Wizard

If you feel so strongly about this, then you should be betting big on Hillary.

I have given it some thought but there are a couple problems for me.

1.) I don't bet online and as near as I can figure Vegas casinos don't offer political wagers. (Must be against the law???) I realize this site is sponsored by an online casino, but I just don't feel comfortable that I will get my money.

2.) As a general rule, I am sort of an underdog guy. I like to get points or odds. I really don't like to lay huge odds, like an odds on favorite. There just is no such thing as a guaranteed winner.

3.) In this specific case, there is an outlying scenario that makes laying such long odds risky and that is that the candidate IS STILL UNDER INVESTIGATION. Seems unlikely, but that could possibly be a game changer.

I'll take a parlay on Hillary and Christie. What are you offering?

My partner claims to have wagered and lost on Al Gore in 2000. He claims at the time he was betting sports (football) online while living in Philadelphia and every time he won some wagers that fall (1999, I guess) he would wager the winnings on Al Gore to win the presidency. So he had many different wagers at slightly different odds but by election night he had more than 12 thousand wagered for a return of more than 29 thousand (win of 17 thousand).

This was before I met him, as I was in high school back in Florida, so I can't verify it, but he is generally a pretty truthful person. At most he may be exaggerating the amounts a bit, but I feel relatively sure he had some major money on the election and experienced a month of ups and downs between election night and the supreme court decision. If betting is about the excitement, he must have gotten his money's worth.....LOL.

Quote: beachbumbabs

I'll take a parlay on Hillary and Christie. What are you offering?

I'll match the 5 Dimes odds of 14.5 to 1, and I won't even require the Hillary part, as I think that is nearly a sure thing.

Quote: Wizard

I'll match the 5 Dimes odds of 14.5 to 1, and I won't even require the Hillary part, as I think that is nearly a sure thing.

OK. $50 on Chris Christie at 14.5 to 1, please. Thank you!

Quote: Wizard

3.5 to 1 on the Donald to win their respective nominations. Parlays allowed.

How about a parlay with Trump to win Republican nomination and Clinton to win Presidential election (currently -150 at William Hill)?

Quote: kewlj

Without bothering to look, there must be another thread with a similar title, talking about Betting the election because I posted this morning that if you are really going to bet the election you better understand how the election process, particularly each party's nomination process REALLY works. I am talking about Super delegates. These are delegates appointed by the party big wigs, usually elected officials or party leaders that are not related to how the voters are actually voting.

In the case of the democrats, 40% of the delegates are super delegates, and 90% of those super delegates are already committed to Hillary Clinton, meaning Hillary is more than a third of the way to the nomination before a single vote has been cast. This means out of the delegates that are won by the actual election process, Sanders would need to win about 75% to actually win the democtratic nomination.

This really is not an open democratic process. Don't make wagers like it is.

Yeah. This is one reason I was happy to bet against Trump. Nate Silver recently reposted an article covering this as it pertains to him. There are plenty of additional mechanisms the party can use to reject a candidate that the silly voters want. They can even change the rules for winning the nomination.

Many of Trump's positions are likely intolerable to the GOP (and would be so for the DNC as well). For example, his opposition to NAFTA and the TPP. This, along with electability concerns, should motivate them to fight dirty if it comes to that.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trumps-six-stages-of-doom/

Quote: Wizard

I will offer you 10 to 1 on Bernie and 3.5 to 1 on the Donald to win their respective nominations. Parlays allowed.

I'll put a 100 on Trump to win GOP. Let me know if you'll book it.

Quote: MaxPen

I'll put a 100 on Trump to win GOP. Let me know if you'll book it.

I'm afraid as a relatively new member, the most credit I can extend is $20. I'll book the full $100 if you pay in advance.