Betting the 2016 Election
Poll
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34 members have voted
| Name | Pays |
|---|---|
| Hillary Clinton | 2 |
| Marco Rubio | 6 |
| Jeb Bush | 9 |
| Chris Christie | 10 |
| Andrew Cuomo | 12 |
| Paul Ryan | 16 |
| Condoleeza Rice | 20 |
| Deval Patrick | 20 |
| Elizabeth Warren | 20 |
| Mark Warner | 20 |
| Martin O'Malley | 20 |
| Rahm Emmanuel | 20 |
| Rand Paul | 20 |
| Bob McDonnell | 25 |
| Cory Booker | 25 |
| Rob Portman | 25 |
| Jon Huntsman | 28 |
| Joe Biden | 33 |
| Michael Bloomberg | 33 |
| Mitt Romney | 33 |
| Sam Graves | 33 |
| Susana Martinez | 33 |
| Amy Klobuchar | 40 |
| Scott Walker | 40 |
| Bobby Jindal | 50 |
| David Petraeus | 50 |
| Mike Huckabee | 50 |
| Rick Santorum | 50 |
| Sarah Palin | 50 |
| Mike Pence | 66 |
| Dennis Kucinich | 100 |
| Eric Cantor | 100 |
| Evan Bayh | 100 |
| Herman Cain | 100 |
| John Kasich | 100 |
| John Thune | 100 |
| Julian Castro | 100 |
| Kathleen Sebelius | 100 |
| Kay Hagan | 100 |
| Mia Love | 100 |
| Michelle Obama | 100 |
| Newt Gingrich | 100 |
| Rick Perry | 100 |
| Tim Kaine | 100 |
I'd like to keep this thread focused on betting the election, as opposed to the election itself. Let me start by saying that they are taking a lot of juice out of these odds. The overall house advantage is 42.3%.
The question for the poll is who do you THINK is the best bet at these odds?
Because the 2106 election will be a midterm election. (haha) ;)Quote: WizardWilliam Hill is not accepting bets on the 2106 Election
Seriously though, I think Hillary's a great bet at this point. As time goes by, her odds will most certainly go down.
I'll go for whoever the republicans say will absolutely, cannot win on the Democrats side. That will be the best value....
I wonder about Condoleeza's chances, myself.
Quote: WizardWilliam Hill is not accepting bets on the ..
I don't understand your first sentence here; is it a typo and Wm Hill is "now" accepting bets, or is it because since we're in the US we can't bet, but others can?
I think Hillary's the best bet, followed by Chris Christie. Pity Jon Huntsman won't be a real choice.
Jeb Bush has some real background issues. He's going to look good until he looks very, very bad.
Marco Rubio's a joke and should be falling post 2014 if not before.
Amy Klobuchar's an old family friend, but I don't see her as President, and I don't think Hillary would be able to win on an all female ticket.
Quote: beachbumbabsI don't understand your first sentence here; is it a typo and Wm Hill is "now" accepting bets, or is it because since we're in the US we can't bet, but others can?
Sorry, typo. It should have said "now." Also, it is on the 2016 election, not 2106.
Quote: Beethoven9thBecause the 2106 election will be a midterm election. (haha) ;)Quote: WizardWilliam Hill is not accepting bets on the 2106 Election
Seriously though, I think Hillary's a great bet at this point. As time goes by, her odds will most certainly go down.
I'm thinking the opposite and she's worth fading.
Quote: DRichI think at 33-1 Joe Biden has value. Has a two term sitting VP ever got so little consideration?
Actually, until George H.W. Bush, no incumbent vice-president had gotten elected president since Martin Van Buren back in 1836.
Quote: DRichI think at 33-1 Joe Biden has value. Has a two term sitting VP ever got so little consideration?
I think Joe has played the buffoon too many times for people to trust him as President. He's pretty sharp, but it's cost him to be a "loose cannon", especially when he's let things out that the Obama White House wasn't ready to take a public position on. The party machine won't let him be a serious contender.
Elizabeth Warren for Prez
The only candidate that Wall St is afraid of.
Quote: terapinedElizabeth Warren for Prez
First Native American president? lol...
Quote: beachbumbabsI think Joe has played the buffoon too many times for people to trust him as President. He's pretty sharp, but it's cost him to be a "loose cannon", especially when he's let things out that the Obama White House wasn't ready to take a public position on. The party machine won't let him be a serious contender.
My thought is that if Hillary doesn't run Obama may be obligated to endorse Biden since he is his two time VP.
Has a two time VP that decides to run ever not been endorsed by their president? I don't think he will win, but I do see value at 33-1.
Posted with permission.
All hindsight of course.
Quote: WizardLet the record show I bet $50 at 10 to 1 odds against SOOPOO on Ben Carson to win the GOP primary.
Posted with permission.
Not exactly. The bet was on who was going to be the Republican nominee for president. Please confirm!
Quote: SOOPOONot exactly. The bet was on who was going to be the Republican nominee for president. Please confirm!
Yes, confirmed.
Quote: WizardLet the record show I bet $50 at 10 to 1 odds against SOOPOO on Ben Carson to win the GOP primary.
Carson, the Herman Cain of 2016. At least
Herman had a pulse, Carson always looks
like he's about to fall asleep.
Quote: UCivanShouldn't Trump be paid 8000 to 1? Like a Straight Flush in High Card Flush
Will you book 800 to 1?
| Candidate | 5 Dimes | Probability | Fair Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marco Rubio | 185 | 32.7% | 206 |
| Ted Cruz | 260 | 25.9% | 287 |
| Donald Trump | 320 | 22.2% | 351 |
| Jeb Bush | 825 | 10.1% | 894 |
| Chris Christie | 1450 | 6.0% | 1,565 |
| Ben Carson | 10000 | 0.9% | 10,749 |
| Carlie Fiorina | 15000 | 0.6% | 16,119 |
| John Kasich | 15000 | 0.6% | 16,119 |
| Mike Huckabee | 15000 | 0.6% | 16,119 |
| Rand Paul | 20000 | 0.5% | 21,490 |
P.S. I will not tolerate hijacking of this thread. This is a place to discuss betting on the election -- not for any anti-Muslim rants.
Quote: Pinit2winit@wizard I see sanders and trump going head to head in a baby boomers vs millenial battle. The question is how many young ones show up to vote. Personally I think the odds on sanders is best bet of placing one at all.
I will offer you 10 to 1 on Bernie and 3.5 to 1 on the Donald to win their respective nominations. Parlays allowed.
In the case of the democrats, 40% of the delegates are super delegates, and 90% of those super delegates are already committed to Hillary Clinton, meaning Hillary is more than a third of the way to the nomination before a single vote has been cast. This means out of the delegates that are won by the actual election process, Sanders would need to win about 75% to actually win the democtratic nomination.
This really is not an open democratic process. Don't make wagers like it is.
Quote: kewljIn the case of the democrats, 40% of the delegates are super delegates, and 90% of those super delegates are already committed to Hillary Clinton, meaning Hillary is more than a third of the way to the nomination before a single vote has been cast. This means out of the delegates that are won by the actual election process, Sanders would need to win about 75% to actually win the democtratic nomination.
If you feel so strongly about this, then you should be betting big on Hillary.
Quote: WizardIf you feel so strongly about this, then you should be betting big on Hillary.
I have given it some thought but there are a couple problems for me.
1.) I don't bet online and as near as I can figure Vegas casinos don't offer political wagers. (Must be against the law???) I realize this site is sponsored by an online casino, but I just don't feel comfortable that I will get my money.
2.) As a general rule, I am sort of an underdog guy. I like to get points or odds. I really don't like to lay huge odds, like an odds on favorite. There just is no such thing as a guaranteed winner.
3.) In this specific case, there is an outlying scenario that makes laying such long odds risky and that is that the candidate IS STILL UNDER INVESTIGATION. Seems unlikely, but that could possibly be a game changer.
This was before I met him, as I was in high school back in Florida, so I can't verify it, but he is generally a pretty truthful person. At most he may be exaggerating the amounts a bit, but I feel relatively sure he had some major money on the election and experienced a month of ups and downs between election night and the supreme court decision. If betting is about the excitement, he must have gotten his money's worth.....LOL.
Quote: beachbumbabsI'll take a parlay on Hillary and Christie. What are you offering?
I'll match the 5 Dimes odds of 14.5 to 1, and I won't even require the Hillary part, as I think that is nearly a sure thing.
Quote: WizardI'll match the 5 Dimes odds of 14.5 to 1, and I won't even require the Hillary part, as I think that is nearly a sure thing.
OK. $50 on Chris Christie at 14.5 to 1, please. Thank you!
Quote: Wizard3.5 to 1 on the Donald to win their respective nominations. Parlays allowed.
How about a parlay with Trump to win Republican nomination and Clinton to win Presidential election (currently -150 at William Hill)?
Quote: kewljWithout bothering to look, there must be another thread with a similar title, talking about Betting the election because I posted this morning that if you are really going to bet the election you better understand how the election process, particularly each party's nomination process REALLY works. I am talking about Super delegates. These are delegates appointed by the party big wigs, usually elected officials or party leaders that are not related to how the voters are actually voting.
In the case of the democrats, 40% of the delegates are super delegates, and 90% of those super delegates are already committed to Hillary Clinton, meaning Hillary is more than a third of the way to the nomination before a single vote has been cast. This means out of the delegates that are won by the actual election process, Sanders would need to win about 75% to actually win the democtratic nomination.
This really is not an open democratic process. Don't make wagers like it is.
Yeah. This is one reason I was happy to bet against Trump. Nate Silver recently reposted an article covering this as it pertains to him. There are plenty of additional mechanisms the party can use to reject a candidate that the silly voters want. They can even change the rules for winning the nomination.
Many of Trump's positions are likely intolerable to the GOP (and would be so for the DNC as well). For example, his opposition to NAFTA and the TPP. This, along with electability concerns, should motivate them to fight dirty if it comes to that.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trumps-six-stages-of-doom/
Quote: WizardI will offer you 10 to 1 on Bernie and 3.5 to 1 on the Donald to win their respective nominations. Parlays allowed.
I'll put a 100 on Trump to win GOP. Let me know if you'll book it.
Quote: MaxPenI'll put a 100 on Trump to win GOP. Let me know if you'll book it.
I'm afraid as a relatively new member, the most credit I can extend is $20. I'll book the full $100 if you pay in advance.
Quote: WizardI'm afraid as a relatively new member, the most credit I can extend is $20. I'll book the full $100 if you pay in advance.
Hypothetical only.?.
If I say I'd like to lay $100 on Trump to NOT win the GOP, and you covered that as well....
Could you be construed as an Internet based bookie? Or does there have to be Vig involved?
Is that the term, Vig?
Quote: WizardHere are the updated odds. The "probability" column shows the probability of winning after squeezing the juice out of the 5 Dimes line. Then the fair odds based on that probability.
Candidate 5 Dimes Probability Fair Odds Marco Rubio 185 32.7% 206 Ted Cruz 260 25.9% 287 Donald Trump 320 22.2% 351 Jeb Bush 825 10.1% 894 Chris Christie 1450 6.0% 1,565 Ben Carson 10000 0.9% 10,749 Carlie Fiorina 15000 0.6% 16,119 John Kasich 15000 0.6% 16,119 Mike Huckabee 15000 0.6% 16,119 Rand Paul 20000 0.5% 21,490
P.S. I will not tolerate hijacking of this thread. This is a place to discuss betting on the election -- not for any anti-Muslim rants.
Where is Donald on the 5 dimes list? Is he that favored that there is no action?
Quote: TwoFeathersATLCould you be construed as an Internet based bookie? Or does there have to be Vig involved?
Is that the term, Vig?
Absolutely not. These are just friendly bets and the site makes no promises that the loser will honor them.
There is no vig.
Quote: WizardAbsolutely not. These are just friendly bets and the site makes no promises that the loser will honor them.
There is no vig.
It was a tougue-in-cheek question ;-)
But as time goes by that other bet, the one where Trump DOES win the GOP might look more attractive. Hopefully we don't get quite that close to the brink, but it is still early....
Happy New Year to us all!
Quote: WizardI'm afraid as a relatively new member, the most credit I can extend is $20. I'll book the full $100 if you pay in advance.
I've met max pen and he is a stand up guy and I vouch for his trust.
Quote: djatcI've met max pen and he is a stand up guy and I vouch for his trust.
With your vouching, no doubt the Wiz will allow you to send the other $80 on his behalf..;-)
product ? Just wondering.
I think Trump will do something like Ron Paul did, or Ross Perot, and pull out long enough to screw up his chances.Quote: WizardAbsolutely not. These are just friendly bets and the site makes no promises that the loser will honor them.
There is no vig.
Ultimately he won't be sworn in as POTUS. Are you offering a wager on that?
Quote: petroglyphI think Trump will do something like Ron Paul did, or Ross Perot, and pull out long enough to screw up his chances.
Ultimately he won't be sworn in as POTUS. Are you offering a wager on that?
Rather than address that to anyone in particular, on this particular board, was there some wager you wanted to make, just between friends, that you wanted to offer?
I don't know how "lines" work, simple man really. https://youtu.be/sHQ_aTjXObs, see?Quote: TwoFeathersATLRather than address that to anyone in particular, on this particular board, was there some wager you wanted to make, just between friends, that you wanted to offer?
I put a lot of details out, I thought I would see if Wizard might offer some kind of odds with all that detail.
Are you saying the Trumpster is moving to Wash? I hate to take even money on it, seeing as how Don is every mans friend.
