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11 votes (32.35%)
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1 vote (2.94%)
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6 votes (17.64%)
16 votes (47.05%)

34 members have voted

Wizard
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Wizard
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
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October 30th, 2015 at 8:53:05 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Not exactly. The bet was on who was going to be the Republican nominee for president. Please confirm!



Yes, confirmed.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
UCivan
UCivan
Joined: Sep 3, 2011
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October 30th, 2015 at 10:15:05 AM permalink
Shouldn't Trump be paid 8000 to 1? Like a Straight Flush in High Card Flush
EvenBob
EvenBob
Joined: Jul 18, 2010
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October 30th, 2015 at 10:37:11 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Let the record show I bet $50 at 10 to 1 odds against SOOPOO on Ben Carson to win the GOP primary.



Carson, the Herman Cain of 2016. At least
Herman had a pulse, Carson always looks
like he's about to fall asleep.
"It's not enough to succeed, your friends must fail." Gore Vidal
Wizard
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Wizard
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
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October 30th, 2015 at 11:05:06 AM permalink
Quote: UCivan

Shouldn't Trump be paid 8000 to 1? Like a Straight Flush in High Card Flush



Will you book 800 to 1?
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
UCivan
UCivan
Joined: Sep 3, 2011
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October 30th, 2015 at 11:07:40 AM permalink
If the minimum is $1, yes, I will bet. But then after my bet, the odds might change to 799.90 to 1.
Wizard
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Wizard
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December 28th, 2015 at 2:45:49 PM permalink
Here are the updated odds. The "probability" column shows the probability of winning after squeezing the juice out of the 5 Dimes line. Then the fair odds based on that probability.

Candidate 5 Dimes Probability Fair Odds
Marco Rubio 185 32.7% 206
Ted Cruz 260 25.9% 287
Donald Trump 320 22.2% 351
Jeb Bush 825 10.1% 894
Chris Christie 1450 6.0% 1,565
Ben Carson 10000 0.9% 10,749
Carlie Fiorina 15000 0.6% 16,119
John Kasich 15000 0.6% 16,119
Mike Huckabee 15000 0.6% 16,119
Rand Paul 20000 0.5% 21,490


P.S. I will not tolerate hijacking of this thread. This is a place to discuss betting on the election -- not for any anti-Muslim rants.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
Pinit2winit
Pinit2winit
Joined: Sep 8, 2015
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December 28th, 2015 at 2:50:26 PM permalink
@wizard I see sanders and trump going head to head in a baby boomers vs millenial battle. The question is how many young ones show up to vote. Personally I think the odds on sanders is best bet of placing one at all.
Wizard
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Wizard
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
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December 28th, 2015 at 2:58:58 PM permalink
Quote: Pinit2winit

@wizard I see sanders and trump going head to head in a baby boomers vs millenial battle. The question is how many young ones show up to vote. Personally I think the odds on sanders is best bet of placing one at all.



I will offer you 10 to 1 on Bernie and 3.5 to 1 on the Donald to win their respective nominations. Parlays allowed.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
kewlj
kewlj
Joined: Apr 17, 2012
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December 28th, 2015 at 3:03:36 PM permalink
Without bothering to look, there must be another thread with a similar title, talking about Betting the election because I posted this morning that if you are really going to bet the election you better understand how the election process, particularly each party's nomination process REALLY works. I am talking about Super delegates. These are delegates appointed by the party big wigs, usually elected officials or party leaders that are not related to how the voters are actually voting.

In the case of the democrats, 40% of the delegates are super delegates, and 90% of those super delegates are already committed to Hillary Clinton, meaning Hillary is more than a third of the way to the nomination before a single vote has been cast. This means out of the delegates that are won by the actual election process, Sanders would need to win about 75% to actually win the democtratic nomination.

This really is not an open democratic process. Don't make wagers like it is.
DRich
DRich
Joined: Jul 6, 2012
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December 28th, 2015 at 3:07:34 PM permalink
I think Trump would have had a better chance to win the nomination if he ran as a democrat. A lot less competition and I think a lot of the young voters registered as Democrats would have voted for him as an anti-Hilliary vote and because they know his name from TV. A lot of young voters do not even remember the Clinton presidency.
Living longer does not always infer +EV

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