Presidential betting
What is the over/under on what percent of the popular vote you think Donald will get?
If I had to guess today I would say 55% for Hillary and 43% for Donald. If anyone thinks I am way off I might be willing to bet on it.
Quote: DRich
If I had to guess today I would say 55% for Hillary and 43% for Donald. If anyone thinks I am way off I might be willing to bet on it.
I'll take Hillary under 55, how much are you looking to put on it?
They have the odds of Hillary getting over 50% of the vote at 25.8%.
The odds that Trump gets over 50% are only at 7.3%.
Their current forecast is:
Clinton 47.1
Trump 43.7
Johnson 7.9
Quote: TomGI'll take Hillary under 55, how much are you looking to put on it?
I said I would bet if someone thinks I am way off. I will take over 50% for $100 if someone wants to offer it. Just a fun bet that I am not willing to bet more on.
Hillary 47
Donald 42
Quote: MrGoldenSunMy lines would be
Hillary 47
Donald 42
I would be shocked if 11% went to other candidates.
Quote: DRichI said I would bet if someone thinks I am way off. I will take over 50% for $100 if someone wants to offer it. Just a fun bet that I am not willing to bet more on.
I will take the other side of that. Reply if you want to book.
Quote: MaxPenI will take the other side of that. Reply if you want to book.
Sounds good to me. I have Hillary over 50% of the popular vote for $100. I'm sure you are the favorite now but I expect Trump to fall off.
Quote: beachbumbabsI will take Hillary over 50% for 200. Anybody want the under? Your side would include 50.0. Mine starts at 50.1.
I will take the other side of that as well as DRich's. Anyone else? I'm willing to put up to 200 more on the under.
Just post back to confirm.
Quote: DRichSounds good to me. I have Hillary over 50% of the popular vote for $100. I'm sure you are the favorite now but I expect Trump to fall off.
Sounds good. Do you want to do the 50 in the same way as BBB proposed, or do you want it to push?
Quote: MaxPenI will take the other side of that as well as DRich's. Anyone else? I'm willing to put up to 200 more on the under.
Just post back to confirm.
It's a bet, prerequisite being that Trump and Clinton are the major party nominees on election day. No action if not.
Quote: beachbumbabsIt's a bet, prerequisite being that Trump and Clinton are the major party nominees on election day. No action if not.
OK. Done and booked.
BBB, can you let me know that this is acknowledged?
Still looking for an interested party, for 200 more.
Quote: MaxPenThis post is just to clarify. All action is based on popular vote as proposed by DRich in his OP. This is not electoral college votes. If there is any confusion, let me know.
BBB, can you let me know that this is acknowledged?
Still looking for an interested party, for 200 more.
Acknowledging.
Quote: DRichI said I would bet if someone thinks I am way off. I will take over 50% for $100 if someone wants to offer it. Just a fun bet that I am not willing to bet more on.
I see Clinton at 49-50 and Trump at 44-45, so wouldn't see any value in under 50, unless we said 50-51 was a push, but you've already gotten better offers.
Gary Johnson had less than 1% of the popular vote in 2012, so would be very surprised with anything over 5%. Most everyone who voted for Romney will vote for Trump, most everyone who voted for Obama will vote for Clinton. Even with 5-10% I don't know if Johnson could be considered a spoiler like Nadar. Nadar voters were former Clinton, future Kerry/Obama voters. Pretty much every Nadar vote would have gone to Gore. Johnson will likely draw from both sides. I like him a lot, especially on drugs, prisons, and national debt. Much better than the wacko they had in 2008
Quote: MaxPenSounds good. Do you want to do the 50 in the same way as BBB proposed, or do you want it to push?
I have over 50%, you get 50% and under.
Quote: DRichI have over 50%, you get 50% and under.
Ok. Good Luck
Quote: WizardofnothingMax I'll take up to 500 if anyone is interested-babs included
What side are you on? I am on the under and I am looking to get another 200 out on it.
I'll give you action bigfoot66. PM me to confirm.Quote: bigfoot66What's the moneyline on Trump to win? I'd bet $100 at +250.
Quote: AyecarumbaI'll give you action bigfoot66. PM me to confirm.
I'm happy to pm to confirm but I would prefer to do it here so that there is a public record of the bet. The proposition is "trump becomes the next president of the United States" you get all other candidates. My $100 against your $250 to be paid no later than 1 week after inaguration on our honor as gentlemen. Sound good?
I would take that action as well, my $100 on Trump vs anyone's $250 on anyone else. Got no problem with someone holding my $100 that is 'established' in this community. Just Feathers. But serious.Quote: bigfoot66I'm happy to pm to confirm but I would prefer to do it here so that there is a public record of the bet. The proposition is "trump becomes the next president of the United States" you get all other candidates. My $100 against your $250 to be paid no later than 1 week after inaguration on our honor as gentlemen. Sound good?
<edit> Damnation! I got to wait until inauguration? How about until someone is declared the winner?
Quote: bigfoot66I'm happy to pm to confirm but I would prefer to do it here so that there is a public record of the bet. The proposition is "trump becomes the next president of the United States" you get all other candidates. My $100 against your $250 to be paid no later than 1 week after inaguration on our honor as gentlemen. Sound good?
You have action. Good luck to America. It is going to be a rough 4 years either way.
Actually, that's fine. Just whenever the election is decided. Not to sound morbid or anything, but inauguration is a couple months later.Quote: bigfoot66So, what, 1 week after the electoral college meets?
Quote: AyecarumbaYou have action. Good luck to America. It is going to be a rough 4 years either way.
Very good. Every president eventually makes you miss the previous president:
Quote: bigfoot66Very good. Every president eventually makes you miss the previous president:
I have yet to miss George W Bush (shocking, I know).
Funny story: Last time I was in Vegas, there was a man at a craps table in the Mirage wearing a t-shirt on with a big picture of GWB's face on it that said "Miss me yet?"
I walked up to him and shouted "NOPE!"
My friend was like, "why'd you do that!?"
I told him I was drunk. (I was).
Quote: TwoFeathersATLI would take that action as well, my $100 on Trump vs anyone's $250 on anyone else. Got no problem with someone holding my $100 that is 'established' in this community. Just Feathers. But serious.
<edit> Damnation! I got to wait until inauguration? How about until someone is declared the winner?
2F, I can't offer you 2.5, but I can do 2.0. If you would like to take Trump for the win, your $100 against my $200, let me know.
Clinton 47%
Trump 44%
Al the rest 9%
Bill Clinton never received 50% of the popular vote, Hillary won't either.
The conservative/right people I know are more likely to vote Trump, but I'd say about 40%-50% are going with Johnson (which some of them would do even without Trump).
I'll likely go Johnson, and I voted for Obama once.
Now, these are people who pay close attention to politics and are more outside the box types, and therefore a minority. But at the same time, I think it's almost impossible for someone who knows a lot about politics (and who is not an elite, or linked to elites) to believe that Hillary is good for the country. So this will add up to a reasonable number of people. Some of them won't vote at all, though.
Trump gets more support, not so much from true believers, though they do exist. But many people think he's worth it as a hail mary and/or an FU to the establishment. At the same time, there are a number of people who just can't get on board. Some people wanted to like him, but are either uncomfortable with the targeting of minorities, or think his personal failings and limitations are so great that they can't support him.
Though I think some centrist/establishment Republican types might switch over to Hillary, as they agree on most things, and have the same general vision for the country.
So, I think that probably adds up to about 10% of voters who really can't stomach either one enough to vote for one them, no matter how much more they hate the other.
Quote: iamnomadMany people are underestimating the vote 3rd Party candidates will receive. I think it'll be about 8-12% of the popular vote. That said, I'll guess the results will be close to the following...
Clinton 47%
Trump 44%
Al the rest 9%
Bill Clinton never received 50% of the popular vote, Hillary won't either.
See, now, I think that would be a fun pool bet among the forum members, those 3 percentages.
I think it will be about
Hillary 52
Trump 41
Other 7
I might reassess after the debates, or after her vp pick. There are a lot of disaffected liberals and independents who will support, and show up to vote instead of sitting it out, if she picks Warren.
Quote: WizardI need to learn who this Johnson guy is. Why does the media seem to pay no attention to him? Could be the biggest spoiler since Ralph Nader.
He's certainly not new to the scene. Been around a long time. Johnson, not Nader. Well, both of them I guess.
Quote: bigfoot66I'm happy to pm to confirm but I would prefer to do it here so that there is a public record of the bet. The proposition is "trump becomes the next president of the United States" you get all other candidates. My $100 against your $250 to be paid no later than 1 week after inaguration on our honor as gentlemen. Sound good?
That definition leaves it open to technicalities. For example, if something happens to Obama before 1/20, then Joe Biden "becomes the next President."
Also, assuming Trump is elected, if there's a delay in swearing him in until after noon Eastern, the "well, technically Pence became President at noon as that is when the term started and Trump had not been inaugurated yet" types will come out of the woodwork. (This happened in 1989 when Bush's inauguration was delayed, and some people claim that Quayle was President for about three minutes.) I for one don't agree with that (Bush was the President; he just couldn't perform any actions until taking the oath), but I don't have money involved.
Also, what if something happens to Trump before 1/20? Does the bet result change, since Trump would not have ever "become President"?
While your proposal is a fair way to deal with these particular circumstances, I would prefer that we remove the incentive for profit at the demise of the President or President-elect, and agree that if President Obama, or President-Elect Trump passes away prior to the inauguration, the wager is cancelled.Quote: bigfoot66Good point. I was willing to bet with Aye because I believe him to be an honorable person so I'm not too worried about this. I would say that if trump dies between now and 1/20 I lose, if Obama dies on 1/5 and Biden is president from 1/5 until trump is inaugurated on 1/20 then I would win the bet.
Quote: AyecarumbaWhile your proposal is a fair way to deal with these particular circumstances, I would prefer that we remove the incentive for profit at the demise of the President or President-elect, and agree that if President Obama, or President-Elect Trump passes away prior to the inauguration, the wager is cancelled.
how about no action if if Clinton or trump passes away but action continues regardless of what happens to Mr Obama or any other candidate?
Quote: bigfoot66And to clarify the bet is a proposition around who is inagurated pursuant to the election in November.
On further reflection I accept your terms and I will include for your benefit in the interest of fairness that if Mrs Clinton passes away no action, please acknowledge.
Quote: bigfoot66On further reflection I accept your terms and I will include for your benefit in the interest of fairness that if Mrs Clinton passes away no action, please acknowledge.
Done and done.
Clinton -227 (69.4%)
Trump +242 (29.4%)
Quote: WizardHere are the Betfair odds, as of 7/24/16, converted to the American format:
Clinton -227 (69.4%)
Trump +242 (29.4%)
Does this imply a 1.2% chance of Stein or Johnson winning (seems awfully high), or is the reason that the sum is <100% a reflection of the house edge?
Quote: bigfoot66Does this imply a 1.2% chance of Stein or Johnson winning (seems awfully high), or is the reason that the sum is <100% a reflection of the house edge?
I'd say that is most of it. Keep in mind Betfair also charges a commission somehow. Can somebody reminds me the rules on that? Here are the odds you can get on third party candidates (on a "for one" basis):
Sanders: 150
Biden: 400
Ryan: 710
Kasich: 36 (is that all?)
Johnson: 200
Quote: bigfoot66Does this imply a 1.2% chance of Stein or Johnson winning (seems awfully high), or is the reason that the sum is <100% a reflection of the house edge?
I wonder if things like a death or physical impairment are calculated into that as well.
