DRich
DRich
Joined: Jul 6, 2012
  • Threads: 74
  • Posts: 6855
July 18th, 2016 at 6:45:40 PM permalink
What is the over/under on what percent of the popular vote you think Hillary will get?

What is the over/under on what percent of the popular vote you think Donald will get?

If I had to guess today I would say 55% for Hillary and 43% for Donald. If anyone thinks I am way off I might be willing to bet on it.
Living longer does not always infer +EV
TomG
TomG
Joined: Sep 26, 2010
  • Threads: 13
  • Posts: 2108
July 18th, 2016 at 7:12:06 PM permalink
Quote: DRich


If I had to guess today I would say 55% for Hillary and 43% for Donald. If anyone thinks I am way off I might be willing to bet on it.



I'll take Hillary under 55, how much are you looking to put on it?
ams288
ams288
Joined: Sep 26, 2012
  • Threads: 22
  • Posts: 5413
July 18th, 2016 at 7:15:36 PM permalink
This seems like an election where no one will get over 50% of the popular vote (which is not that uncommon, historically...).
Ding Dong the Witch is Dead
ams288
ams288
Joined: Sep 26, 2012
  • Threads: 22
  • Posts: 5413
July 18th, 2016 at 7:19:17 PM permalink
Check out fivethirtyeight.

They have the odds of Hillary getting over 50% of the vote at 25.8%.

The odds that Trump gets over 50% are only at 7.3%.

Their current forecast is:

Clinton 47.1
Trump 43.7
Johnson 7.9
Ding Dong the Witch is Dead
DRich
DRich
Joined: Jul 6, 2012
  • Threads: 74
  • Posts: 6855
July 18th, 2016 at 7:21:54 PM permalink
Quote: TomG

I'll take Hillary under 55, how much are you looking to put on it?



I said I would bet if someone thinks I am way off. I will take over 50% for $100 if someone wants to offer it. Just a fun bet that I am not willing to bet more on.
Living longer does not always infer +EV
MrGoldenSun
MrGoldenSun
Joined: Apr 1, 2016
  • Threads: 3
  • Posts: 252
July 18th, 2016 at 7:25:28 PM permalink
My lines would be

Hillary 47
Donald 42
DRich
DRich
Joined: Jul 6, 2012
  • Threads: 74
  • Posts: 6855
July 18th, 2016 at 7:30:13 PM permalink
Quote: MrGoldenSun

My lines would be

Hillary 47
Donald 42



I would be shocked if 11% went to other candidates.
Living longer does not always infer +EV
MaxPen
MaxPen
Joined: Feb 4, 2015
  • Threads: 13
  • Posts: 3634
July 18th, 2016 at 8:26:56 PM permalink
Quote: DRich

I said I would bet if someone thinks I am way off. I will take over 50% for $100 if someone wants to offer it. Just a fun bet that I am not willing to bet more on.



I will take the other side of that. Reply if you want to book.
DRich
DRich
Joined: Jul 6, 2012
  • Threads: 74
  • Posts: 6855
July 18th, 2016 at 8:36:58 PM permalink
Quote: MaxPen

I will take the other side of that. Reply if you want to book.



Sounds good to me. I have Hillary over 50% of the popular vote for $100. I'm sure you are the favorite now but I expect Trump to fall off.
Living longer does not always infer +EV
beachbumbabs
Administrator
beachbumbabs
Joined: May 21, 2013
  • Threads: 99
  • Posts: 14230
July 18th, 2016 at 9:56:56 PM permalink
I will take Hillary over 50% for 200. Anybody want the under? Your side would include 50.0. Mine starts at 50.1.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.

  • Jump to: