Election Betting Odds
I used the starspangledgamblers affiliate link for a $200 sign up bonus:
https://starspangledgamblers.com/2022/10/25/the-5-key-indicators-that-will-predict-the-senate/
My 'sure bets' are the Republican to win Utah and the Democrat to win WA.
I would be interested to see a record of how past bets that were 11:1 on the eve of election day turned out. I would imagine that some resulted in a win for those betting on the underdog. Maybe Trump winning MI, WI, and PA in 2016? I can't think of any recent Senate or governor wins that were hugely surprising. GA going for Biden, Warnock, Ossoff in 2020 was surprising to many pundits but I think the odds shifted significantly toward Democrats in the days leading up to those elections.
Quote: JackSpadeThis is my first experience with PredictIt. I guess I won't be placing any bets on the presidential election since it looks like the site could be shutting down soon.
I used the starspangledgamblers affiliate link for a $200 sign up bonus:
https://starspangledgamblers.com/2022/10/25/the-5-key-indicators-that-will-predict-the-senate/
My 'sure bets' are the Republican to win Utah and the Democrat to win WA.
I would be interested to see a record of how past bets that were 11:1 on the eve of election day turned out. I would imagine that some resulted in a win for those betting on the underdog. Maybe Trump winning MI, WI, and PA in 2016? I can't think of any recent Senate or governor wins that were hugely surprising. GA going for Biden, Warnock, Ossoff in 2020 was surprising to many pundits but I think the odds shifted significantly toward Democrats in the days leading up to those elections.
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You are getting free money on those two bets. The ones you mentioned in 2016 I don't think were in the 'lock' column. "Surprising' yes, but shocking, no!
Have you withdrawn any money from them?
EDIT: Reports are that Paul Pelosi is currently undergoing brain surgery as a result of the attack.
Quote: JackSpadeI believe when the early results from Florida on election day 2016 showed Hillary ahead, Trump's odds of winning the presidency dipped below 10%.
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Trump flipped a bunch of States that had previously gone to Obama, so I wonder if they hadn't gotten results yet and were considering those in the bag for Hillary when estimating Trump at 10%....
Quote: TigerWu
He's 100% right.... Walker is an absolute train wreck. I know people in Georgia, and they're all leaving the state next year because apparently the politics down there is going to hell.
Wrong. I am sticking around to see what happens. Should be fun. Gas prices are the lowest in the country. Plus we get to spread our own gain of function disease -- terminal dumb-ass.
tuttigym
Joke number 2. Paul Pelosi found another way to get hammered.
Quote: EvenBobBest Paul Pelosi joke so far. It's been reported that both men were in their underwear when the police arrived. Obviously this was another Grinder hook-up gone bad.
Joke number 2. Paul Pelosi found another way to get hammered.
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Seems like EB enjoys political violence.
PS - if it was a Grindr hookup, no one would be wearing any underwear.
Quote: JackSpadehttps://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7112/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-US-Senate-election-in-Arizona
I just placed a small bet on Masters to lose. I also have a bet that AZ will be the closest Senate race. I think it's 50/50, polls show Kelly is slightly ahead, but bettors are now favoring Masters to win. Given the pricing, I think Kelly is the better bet.
Plus, I wanted to hedge my bet that Fetterman will lose to Dr. Oz in case the red wave fails to materialize. Democracy is strange, voters don't always act rationally or predictably, and Fetterman's communication disability might endear him to lots of people who will cast sympathy votes.
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Masters is now trading at a discount to Kelly. I sold Masters at his peak (so far). Fetterman's odds are rising, so I'm down a little on that position.
Zeldin is failing to gain any ground in NY despite the GOP now investing heavily in the race. Bringing in out of state. out of region Republican governors including Desantis and Youngkin to stump for Zeldin is a bizarre strategy. Desantis himself is facing re-election. He should be in Florida, doing his job. The only way a Republican is going to win in NY is by appealing to a sizeable share of Democrats.
https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7837/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-New-York-gubernatorial-election
Republicans will see a net pick up of +2 Senate seats, +27 House seats, and +3 Governorships.
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I see that 538 now predicts Republicans will pick up a Senate seat in the light blue state of Nevada.
Quote: SOOPOOPredictit over last 24 hours took a big shift towards Republicans in most elections. They have Zeldin at 31cents now. Nevada, Georgia, Pennsylvania all for Repub Senate. I think Tepubs are favored in 34 of the 50 gubernatorial outcomes. I’d be happy for two years. Biden being a check on Repub House and Senate limits what Repubs can do. And of course puts a (temporary) end to the liberal agenda. 34 states means 9 that voted for Biden over trump will elect a Republican governor. That’s a lot.
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I must admit that I am confused by your phrasing and am having trouble deciphering what you mean. Do you mean that we are expected to end up with 34 Republican Governors in 50 states? That would make more sense, but your use of the word, 'Outcomes,' throws me off because there are presently 28 Republican governors already and there are fourteen states where that position is not up this year.
It looks like Democrats have five governors who are not up for re-election this year, which leaves nine Republicans who are not.
According to Politico's prediction, which I am not expressly endorsing:
https://www.politico.com/2022-election/race-forecasts-ratings-and-predictions/governors/
They have 14 that are lean Democrat (or heavy Democrat) so that would make 19. Beyond that, they have five tossups and one, "Likely GOP," with Gerogia.
The tossup states are: Arizona, Kansas, OREGON (!!!???), Wisconsin and Nevada.
According to 538, Oregon is a dead heat, so it's possible you'd want to slightly favor the Republican as Republicans have outperformed polling (slightly) the last few cycles. That's not an official recommendation of any kind on my part, just an observation.
In Nevada, 538 has the Republican at a skin of teeth lead.
In Arizona, the Republican has a lead of over 2.5%.
538 would have the Democrat from Kansas in what I would consider a fairly safe lead in most election cycles, over five point aggregate lead. One thing that should be noted is that there hasn't been much polling in the state.
They give the Republican a slight lead in Wisconsin, but I'd call it anybody's game looking at individual polls.
Oregon is interesting in that it's a dead heat, but we've got an independent polling at or just below the teens. Interestingly, according to the date from this poll:
https://www.filesforprogress.org/datasets/2022/10/dfp_oregon_october18_2022_tabs.pdf
Democrats have a more negative view of the third-party candidate, Betsy Johnson (-51) compared to Republicans at (-27).
However, it would appear that a greater percentage of Democrats (8%) than Republicans (5%) plan to vote for Betsy Johnson.
My inclination is to think that she is seen as pulling votes away from the Democratic Nominee, Tina Kotek, so perhaps that is why so many Democrats seem to hate her. It would also appear that she is a centrist who used to be a Democrat, so that could be another reason they hate her. If social media is any indication, then it would seem that Democrats hate centrists who still themselves identify as Democrats.
The interesting dynamic that this creates is that we have seen, over several elections, that the third-party almost never pulls the percentage that polls would persuade people to presume. With that, it would seem that Democrats have a less favorable opinion of Johnson, but more are now claiming they are going to vote for her (compared to Republicans) so we assume there is going to be breakage and that the breakage is proportionate, then that would throw more votes to Kotek than the Republican nominee. If anyone else wants to dive into more polls, go ahead, I'm not planning to do an article on this election cycle, so that's about as deep as I plan to dive.
Georgia does not look particularly close.
Conclusion
It looks like 20 Democratic Governors (assuming Kansas holds) which would be a maximum of 30 Republican Governors, so I'm not sure where you are getting 34 of anything.
If you put a gun to my head, I think the Democrat wins Oregon and probably Kansas, from the look of it. I think Kansas might be a West Virginia sort of thing in that a Democrat in that state would be called a moderate Republican in most others. That would make it look like 29 (Republican) to 21 (Democrat) Governors, which is a flip of one state assuming Republicans win Arizona, Nevada and Wisconsin.
538 this morning now has Repubs 52-48 in the Senate.
By ‘outcome’ I meant who would be governor even if there was no election this year.
https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7632/How-many-Republican-governors-will-there-be-after-the-midterms
To get to 34, the red wave would have to be a red tsunami that lifts all the Republicans who have a plausible shot at winning.
The only poll that shows Zeldin winning in NY is Trafalgar, which always tilts Republican. In 2016, Trafalgar was more accurate than most polls but in 2020 I think it was less accurate. Trafalgar suggests that Cuomo supporters who don't like Hochul will vote for Zeldin in large numbers.
I am betting on the Republican to win OR, but the risk is that many liberals who tell pollsters they support the independent candidate will reluctantly vote Democrat to make sure the Republican doesn't win.
I’m still offering Hochul -100k and Whitmer -50k. I’ll also offer that neither Warnock nor Walker get 50%.
Apparently libertarian candidate in Pa dropped out and actually endorsed Oz! Big swing on Predictit towards Oz as a result.
Quote: SOOPOOPredictit has Republicans way ahead in states that 538 has as ‘skin of your teeth’. In the governors races.
538 this morning now has Repubs 52-48 in the Senate.
By ‘outcome’ I meant who would be governor even if there was no election this year.
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I can't say there has never been an exception, but I wouldn't live or die by the accuracy of what the PredictIt binary markets would lead one to believe.
Quote: SOOPOOIt looks like Repubs will win house by a fair margin, and the Senate by more than 51-49. It would have been interesting if exactly 51-49, as that would have opened the door for a Republican version of Joe Manchin. The lead in the house also prevents a single rogue Republican from exercising undue power like Manchin did in the Senate.
I’m still offering Hochul -100k and Whitmer -50k. I’ll also offer that neither Warnock nor Walker get 50%.
Apparently libertarian candidate in Pa dropped out and actually endorsed Oz! Big swing on Predictit towards Oz as a result.
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"Exercising undue power?", vis-a-vis- Manchin? Do you mean, "Being a moderate?"
Quote: Mission146Quote: SOOPOOIt looks like Repubs will win house by a fair margin, and the Senate by more than 51-49. It would have been interesting if exactly 51-49, as that would have opened the door for a Republican version of Joe Manchin. The lead in the house also prevents a single rogue Republican from exercising undue power like Manchin did in the Senate.
I’m still offering Hochul -100k and Whitmer -50k. I’ll also offer that neither Warnock nor Walker get 50%.
Apparently libertarian candidate in Pa dropped out and actually endorsed Oz! Big swing on Predictit towards Oz as a result.
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"Exercising undue power?", vis-a-vis- Manchin? Do you mean, "Being a moderate?"
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Not at all. Him being moderate or extreme was irrelevant to my point. My point was just that a single senator from the majority party could get basically whatever he wanted by letting his boss (Schumer) know there was NO BILL that would pass without his (Manchin's) permission. A single Senator from the small state of West Virginia being able to do that to me is a perfect example of 'exercising undue power'.
Quote: SOOPOO
Not at all. Him being moderate or extreme was irrelevant to my point. My point was just that a single senator from the majority party could get basically whatever he wanted by letting his boss (Schumer) know there was NO BILL that would pass without his (Manchin's) permission. A single Senator from the small state of West Virginia being able to do that to me is a perfect example of 'exercising undue power'.
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(Quote clipped, quote-in-quote removed)
I disagree. In theory, as long as Manchin believed that his actions and what he would or would not vote for represented the will of the State of West Virginia, then he was simply doing his job. His job is to represent the will of his constituents, not to represent the Democratic Party's agenda as a glorified rubber stamp.
Quote: EvenBobBest Paul Pelosi joke so far. It's been reported that both men were in their underwear when the police arrived. Obviously this was another Grinder hook-up gone bad.
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The word "joke" is doing a lot of heavy lifting in that sentence.
https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7634/Which-2022-Senate-race-will-be-the-closest
The price for AZ being the closest Senate race hasn't budged despite the fact that the odds of the race itself have been ranging right around 50/50 over the past several days. NV is currently 72/28 in favor of the Republican. There doesn't seem to be any particular reason why NV, GA, or NH should have a higher probability of being closer than AZ. Although any of them could wind up being the closest, I maintain that AZ is the best bet in this category given its low price.
Edit: Actually the price for AZ has gone down from .15 to .13 since I bought it while NH has gone up a few cents. Thinking about buying No on NV at .21 rather than buying more Yes on AZ at .13.
"The Democrats in Pennsylvania are so desperate they're even running a man who died of a stroke for the Senate."
Fetterman did not really die he just appears to be brain dead.
He wouldn't be the first dead Democrat to be elected to the Senate. Mel Carnahan did it in 2000.
Quote: EvenBobBill Maher in his monologue last Friday.
"The Democrats in Pennsylvania are so desperate they're even running a man who died of a stroke for the Senate."
Fetterman did not really die he just appears to be brain dead.
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That really speaks to how terrible a candidate Dr. Oz is if someone supposedly on the verge of death is neck and neck with him.... LOL...
Arizona judge ruled armed election monitors to stay 250 feet away from drop boxes.
"I think it's fair to say, democracy is in danger when ballot boxes take out a restraining order."
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RT: Mueller, She Wrote
I have been getting flooded with messages saying twitter unfollowed them from my account and vice versa. If you see this, check you’re following me and let me know if I’ve unfollowed you. It wasn’t intentional.
RT: Devin Nunes’ cow 🐮
Following everyone back when you have a large account takes years! There’s a daily limit.
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RT: Fox News
AOC complains her Twitter account 'conveniently' not working after tiff with CEO Elon Musk
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Trending: #NewNameForElonMusksTwitter
44BillionChan
Quote:Oprah Winfrey announces her support for Dr. Oz opponent, John Fetterman
lol
Oprah is atoning for inflicting Dr. Oz on the world…
Having said that, the billionaire elites are the chess players. The politicians in D.C. are the pieces that they move upon the board conveniently put into key positions. We are the small little beings breaking our backs holding up that board they walk upon laughing, cackling and dancing from the sound of tax revenue into their coffers.
Quote:It was always a lie. The whole thing was always a lie. And it was a lie meant to rile people up.....the promises you’re making that you’re gonna challenge the Electoral College and overturn the election, there’s not even a process for you to do that. It doesn’t even exist......But even just the others, they’re like, "Yeah, we know that, but we just, you know, people just need their last hurrah. Like, they just need to feel like we fought one last time. Trust me, it’ll be fine." And I was like, "No, it won’t. That’s not what people believe and that’s not what you’re telling them. And maybe you’re smart enough to know that but like …" So we have a lot of people in the political world that are just willing to say things they know aren’t true, they know aren’t true. It’s a huge manipulation.
From the Nov. 2nd episode of his podcast
Quote: TigerWuRepublican Congressman Dan Crenshaw admits the 2020 election was not stolen and that Republican politicians pushed the Big Lie to manipulate their supporters:
Quote:It was always a lie. The whole thing was always a lie. And it was a lie meant to rile people up.....the promises you’re making that you’re gonna challenge the Electoral College and overturn the election, there’s not even a process for you to do that. It doesn’t even exist......But even just the others, they’re like, "Yeah, we know that, but we just, you know, people just need their last hurrah. Like, they just need to feel like we fought one last time. Trust me, it’ll be fine." And I was like, "No, it won’t. That’s not what people believe and that’s not what you’re telling them. And maybe you’re smart enough to know that but like …" So we have a lot of people in the political world that are just willing to say things they know aren’t true, they know aren’t true. It’s a huge manipulation.
From the Nov. 2nd episode of his podcast
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Good post. Politicians lie all the time. On purpose. If the result of their lie is a positive, does that justify the lie? To use two simple examples, Obama’s lies about the cost and doctor selection when trumpeting the ACA were necessary to get the law passed. I think those who like the ACA now would say his lies were worth it.
Walker’s lies about (most things!) are necessary for him to have a chance at beating Warnock, and pretty much every Republican would say taking back the Senate far outweighs the negatives of Walker’s lies.
Third one…. Fauci lying about masks in the beginning of the pandemic.
Quote: SOOPOOQuote: TigerWuRepublican Congressman Dan Crenshaw admits the 2020 election was not stolen and that Republican politicians pushed the Big Lie to manipulate their supporters:
Quote:It was always a lie. The whole thing was always a lie. And it was a lie meant to rile people up.....the promises you’re making that you’re gonna challenge the Electoral College and overturn the election, there’s not even a process for you to do that. It doesn’t even exist......But even just the others, they’re like, "Yeah, we know that, but we just, you know, people just need their last hurrah. Like, they just need to feel like we fought one last time. Trust me, it’ll be fine." And I was like, "No, it won’t. That’s not what people believe and that’s not what you’re telling them. And maybe you’re smart enough to know that but like …" So we have a lot of people in the political world that are just willing to say things they know aren’t true, they know aren’t true. It’s a huge manipulation.
From the Nov. 2nd episode of his podcast
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Good post. Politicians lie all the time. On purpose. If the result of their lie is a positive, does that justify the lie? To use two simple examples, Obama’s lies about the cost and doctor selection when trumpeting the ACA were necessary to get the law passed. I think those who like the ACA now would say his lies were worth it.
Walker’s lies about (most things!) are necessary for him to have a chance at beating Warnock, and pretty much every Republican would say taking back the Senate far outweighs the negatives of Walker’s lies.
Third one…. Fauci lying about masks in the beginning of the pandemic.
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True, though I think most politicians deserve electric shocks per lie, particularly while running for office.
Quote: ChumpChangeBREAKING: The entire Human Rights team has just been fired from Twitter.
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My conspiracy theory is that Elon bought Twitter to run it into the ground on purpose just so he can get a $44 billion tax write off.
Quote: ChumpChangeBREAKING: The entire Human Rights team has just been fired from Twitter.
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The human rights team at Twitter. Talk about an oxymoron.. A team of 20-something gen Z's making six figures each and running everything through they're Woke checklist and calling that 'human rights'. Good riddance get a job where you really belong, Starbucks making lattes..
Quote: ams288For an Elon-hater like myself, few things have been more enjoyable that witnessing his disastrous first week.
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I don't have any opinions on Musk but the accomplishments of SpaceX under his direction are mind boggling and maybe the greatest accomplishments by any private company in such a short period of time.
Quote: JackSpadeWe'll see if Elon cares more about free speech than ad revenue. Woke corporations are pausing ads on Twitter until he agrees to put Woke activists back in charge of content moderation. If he doesn't overrule them and let Trump back on Twitter, then what was the point of buying the company? He always insisted it wasn't about the money.
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You have to hire enough mods to look at content. The majority of advertisers won't advertise next to porn for instance. Word or pictorial. And that's even before you get into the debate of politics.
Quote: JackSpadeWe'll see if Elon cares more about free speech than ad revenue. Woke corporations are pausing ads on Twitter until he agrees to put Woke activists back in charge of content moderation. If he doesn't overrule them and let Trump back on Twitter, then what was the point of buying the company? He always insisted it wasn't about the money.
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There's always a shake-up when new owners take over a corporation. Don't be silly enough to think what's happening this week is going to be happening 6 months from now. Elon Musk knows what the hell he's doing, he's the richest man in the world for a reason. In 2019 his net worth was 20 billion dollars, his net worth is about two hundred and thirty billion dollars today. I don't think he's too worried about making Twitter successful.
Quote: EvenBobQuote: JackSpadeWe'll see if Elon cares more about free speech than ad revenue. Woke corporations are pausing ads on Twitter until he agrees to put Woke activists back in charge of content moderation. If he doesn't overrule them and let Trump back on Twitter, then what was the point of buying the company? He always insisted it wasn't about the money.
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There's always a shake-up when new owners take over a corporation. Don't be silly enough to think what's happening this week is going to be happening 6 months from now. Elon Musk knows what the hell he's doing, he's the richest man in the world for a reason. In 2019 his net worth was 20 billion dollars, his net worth is about two hundred and thirty billion dollars today. I don't think he's too worried about making Twitter successful.
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If Elmo knew what he was doing, he would not have paid $44 billion for Twitter. He got hosed.
#Twitter Staff Warns Of #Election Chaos Following Massive Layoffs - YouTube https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2TtyOQeFseE
RT: Mueller, She Wrote
The sooner you realize Elon is here to dismantle twitter, the more sense everything he does makes.
RT: Angelo Carusone - https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1588696157794242560.html
There is some pretty substantial context about Twitter's 2023 revenue and advertisers that I think partly help explains why Musk is really losing it...
And it involves upfront ad sales. Let me explain...
Back Twitter (like a lot of digital companies) participates in an event called new fronts. At this event, they sell large chunks of ads for the following year.
Typically, Twitter sells like ~600-900M in ads at new fronts. That's guaranteed revenue for following year.
This year, they didn't sell much of anything.
A coalition called Stop The Deal spent time educating and using media buyers and big advertisers at the event to ask Twitter some basic questions about potential Musk takeover before giving him a guaranteed income for 2023.
Media buyers did ask those questions. Twitter had zero answers or assurances, the presentation imploded and ended shockingly early. Twitter from what I understand basically sold almost nothing and locked in extremely little 2023 revenue
This means that instead of heading into 2023 with 15-20% of 2023 already secured as they typically would have, Twitter heads into next year with almost none of that. All because of Musk's red pilled edgelord approach.
@elonmusk has had months to address these concerns or even learn about them. But instead, he's insisted on antagonizing the very businesses and people that sustain Twitter.
Back in May, the groups and companies weren't calling for a boycott, they were asking basic questions.
My point here is: It's actually worse than that I think a lot of people even appreciate all because Musk's conduct and commitments to roll back brand safety and community safeguards essentially obliterated Twitter's new front sales event that woulda secured 2023 revenue.
I kinda have to wonder if Google Play and the Apple Store are going to pull twitter next week, early. This is a global terrorist event at twitter.
RT: First Squawk
90% OF TWITTER ASIA IS FIRED: SOURCE
85% INDIA TWITTER IS FIRED: SOURCE
Elon tweeted that he'd buy TikTok just to delete it, so that's the message I get about any of his social media purchases now.
This should justify twitters' removal from the stores right here:
“The Jews” is trending on Twitter, and its algorithm has selected Ye as a “Top” person to follow while Elon Musk fires roughly half of the company’s staff, including many of its policy experts and content moderators.
Ye, formerly known as Kanye West, recently had his Twitter access limited after saying he would go “death con 3” on “JEWISH PEOPLE,” and has been dropped by the vast majority of his business partners after repeatedly making blatantly antisemitic comments over the last few weeks. The freeze on Ye's account has since been lifted.
Quote: ChumpChangeHe's a grifter losing millions a day from twitter.
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Hardly. When Jeff Bezos started Amazon he lost millions of dollars a year for years before he started making a profit and now look at it. They said he was nuts, for a while he was the richest man in the world nuts.
list of betting options for all of the key Senate, Governor, and House of Representative races.
The Republicans are the -300 favorite to control the Senate; here are the odds on some of the key Senate races:
Arizona: Blake Masters (R) -145 vs. Mark Kelly (D) +105
Georgia: Herschel Walker (R) -165 vs. Raphael Warnock (D) +125
Ohio: JD Vance (R) -800 vs. Tim Ryan (D) +425
Pennsylvania: Dr. Oz (R) -225 vs. John Fetterman (D) +160
Meanwhile, these are some of the Governor races that are getting the most action:
Arizona: Kari Lake (R) -800 vs. Katie Hobbs (D) +425
Michigan: Gretchen Whitmer (D) -325 vs. Tudor Dixon (R) +215
New York: Kathy Hochul (D) -450 vs. Lee Zeldin (R) +275
Pennsylvania: Josh Shapiro (D) -800 vs. Doug Mastriano (R) +425
Last up, the Republicans are the overwhelming -3000 favorite to control the House of Representatives.
