Election Betting Odds
October 26th, 2022 at 1:17:36 PM
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Quote: SOOPOOQuote: tuttigymThe speech was political rhetoric and no more inflammatory than what those on the other side keep saying about "stealing our democracy" and "taking back our country." I am pretty confident that you could ferret out some similar high-volume speeches from just about any politician running for office today. It is what politics is all about.
tuttigym
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This!!!!
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There's a difference of scale. I don't know what the magnitude of difference is though.
Sanitized for Your Protection
October 26th, 2022 at 1:23:54 PM
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Just when it looked like Fetterman was in trouble, Donny to hold a rally.
Nothing motivates Dems to the polls like that fat oaf coming to town…
Wonder if he will mock Fetterman’s stroke symptoms? That should help with suburban voters…
He’s not above mocking disabled people…
Nothing motivates Dems to the polls like that fat oaf coming to town…
Wonder if he will mock Fetterman’s stroke symptoms? That should help with suburban voters…
He’s not above mocking disabled people…
Ding Dong the Witch is Dead
October 26th, 2022 at 1:34:11 PM
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Quote: ams288
He’s not above mocking disabled people…
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It's okay, he's allowed.... he's disabled himself.
October 26th, 2022 at 1:37:48 PM
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I am assuming something changed in this thread. I see very little discussion about betting and odds on the election. It seems like political blabbering to me. Hopefully it will reverse course and get back to betting. Let the nonsense go back over to DT
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
October 26th, 2022 at 1:49:28 PM
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Quote: tuttigymQuote: TigerWu
What is the double standard?
It seems the majority of convictions shown were for "parading and demonstrating." I am assuming that those who were convicted were Republican. Doesn't the First Amendment allow for "public assembly" and "free speech"? Do we now have precedent to arrest anyone who "parades" and "demonstrates" for or against causes?
As I posted previously, lawlessness in any form is unacceptable and should be accountable, and it should be equal regardless of political views.
tuttigym
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Can you cite convictions for parading and/or demonstrating for any Jan 6 defendant?
Gene
October 26th, 2022 at 1:52:32 PM
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Quote: DRichI am assuming something changed in this thread. I see very little discussion about betting and odds on the election. It seems like political blabbering to me. Hopefully it will reverse course and get back to betting. Let the nonsense go back over to DT
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Useless post, DRich. Why don’t you respond to my offers of bets some posts back?
October 26th, 2022 at 2:08:30 PM
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Quote: DRichI am assuming something changed in this thread. I see very little discussion about betting and odds on the election. It seems like political blabbering to me. Hopefully it will reverse course and get back to betting. Let the nonsense go back over to DT
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It was intended to be an open discussion about election odds. Then moderators decided to ban any political analysis pertaining to election odds. Then moderators decided to welcome any political analysis regardless of whether it pertains to election odds.
October 26th, 2022 at 2:30:46 PM
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Quote: SOOPOOQuote: DRichI am assuming something changed in this thread. I see very little discussion about betting and odds on the election. It seems like political blabbering to me. Hopefully it will reverse course and get back to betting. Let the nonsense go back over to DT
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Useless post, DRich. Why don’t you respond to my offers of bets some posts back?
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Sorry Soopoo. I probably missed it. I skipped to the end of this thread when I saw what happened to it. If it was about election betting I wouldn't know much about it. I don't follow politics.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
October 26th, 2022 at 3:32:59 PM
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Predictit currently has a Biden impeachment at 31 cents. I feel like this is way too low. I think a Biden impeachment is a lock once Republicans take over the House.
October 26th, 2022 at 3:57:39 PM
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Quote: TigerWuPredictit currently has a Biden impeachment at 31 cents. I feel like this is way too low. I think a Biden impeachment is a lock once Republicans take over the House.
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You'd have to believe Biden will commit an offense that is widely perceived as impeachable. So far he has not.
It would be in the GOP's interest to keep Biden in office so they can run against him in 2024. Impeachment would likely backfire politically and is therefore unlikely to be on Speaker Kevin McCarthy's agenda.
Biden failing to finish out his term for any reason would be a better bet. If at some point he knew that he was going to be impeached, he might just offer to resign to avoid the process playing out. He might resign for health or other reasons. He might also die.
October 26th, 2022 at 4:12:43 PM
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Impeachment is going nowhere without 67 senate votes. It will be a GOP talking point full of lies.
October 26th, 2022 at 6:08:55 PM
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Quote: SOOPOOQuote: WizardQuote: SOOPOOMike made an obviously inflammatory allegation. I’m asking for a source.
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My source is largely his speech in front of the White House Jan 6. Yes, he didn't use the word "insurrection." He did know the crowd was armed and emotionally charged up, which he called to march to the Capitol. He also never repudiated Giuliani's, "Let's have trial by combat." The riots went on for hours while he sat watching on TV, doing nothing to stop it, despite plenty of pleas to do so. Eventually, he justified the events with this tweet.
"These are the things and events that happen when a sacred landslide election victory is so unceremoniously & viciously stripped away from great patriots who have been badly & unfairly treated for so long. Go home with love & in peace. Remember this day forever!" -- Donald J. Trump
Source
I'll concede my wording could have been better and will retract my comment. I am still not sure what Trump thought or hoped would go down, as long as it ended with him staying in power.
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Then you and I are now 100% in agreement. His actions, as per his usual, are likely to rile up his imbecile followers. Sort of like when Shumer used incendiary language threatening the right leaning Supreme Court Justices. It’s not smart. But neither is criminal.
Trump did NOT ‘call for’ and armed insurrection.
If you want to say…. If it wasn’t for Trump and his stupid minions, there wouldn’t have been an armed insurrection, I’ll agree with that, too.
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I want clarification here .Soopoo just called Trump supporters imbeciles and stupid and he's not being reprimanded for it. Does that mean I can call liberals whatever I want without repercussion? Calling a group of people stupid imbeciles is about as bad as it gets. I have a few choice words about liberals, more than a few actually as to what they've done to this country in the last 2 years. And why they're going to be so soundly rejected on November 8th. We will never have a true idea of how badly Trump winning in 2016 hurt the liberal agenda. That's why they were so upset because Hillary was supposed to win and be coronated and it was going to set the table for them to be in power for the next 10 to 15 years and change the entire framework of the United States. And Trump screwed all that up. Just for that he's a national hero.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
October 26th, 2022 at 7:38:08 PM
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Quote: EvenBobQuote: SOOPOO
I’m not about to read a thousand word post. Please give me ONE where he CALLED FOR an armed insurrection. Thanks.
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They never will because he never did and they know he ever did. All they have is guesswork about what was in his mind or they have a second cousin who knows an intern who works in the White House who heard somebody say that they heard somebody else say that somebody overheard Trump call for an insurrection. That's all they have, which is nothing. This is why the January 6th hearings are such a clown show joke. Nobody cares, nobody watches them because they're ado about nothing. Remember all that summer 2020 black lives matter and antifa we're literally burning cities down in Democratic districts and nothing was done. Where are the hearings about that.
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So far, the Jan 6 testimony is first hand accounts. So you have evidence of non first-hand accounts and hearsay?
Gene
October 26th, 2022 at 8:24:06 PM
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Quote: TigerWuPredictit currently has a Biden impeachment at 31 cents. I feel like this is way too low. I think a Biden impeachment is a lock once Republicans take over the House.
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Interesting thought. I would bet against it if it was even money. There only need to be 10 or so Republican House members to not vote to impeach to block a foolhardy attempt at impeaching Biden. Even though it is a ‘House’ thing, I’d bet McConnell would work behind the scenes against it. As stupid as the Trump impeachment was, this one would be stupider. The Republicans would be smarter to censure him on whatever make believe charges they pick.
October 26th, 2022 at 8:28:14 PM
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Quote: GenoDRPhQuote: EvenBobQuote: SOOPOO
I’m not about to read a thousand word post. Please give me ONE where he CALLED FOR an armed insurrection. Thanks.
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They never will because he never did and they know he ever did. All they have is guesswork about what was in his mind or they have a second cousin who knows an intern who works in the White House who heard somebody say that they heard somebody else say that somebody overheard Trump call for an insurrection. That's all they have, which is nothing. This is why the January 6th hearings are such a clown show joke. Nobody cares, nobody watches them because they're ado about nothing. Remember all that summer 2020 black lives matter and antifa we're literally burning cities down in Democratic districts and nothing was done. Where are the hearings about that.
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So far, the Jan 6 testimony is first hand accounts. So you have evidence of non first-hand accounts and hearsay?
Gene
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I’ve not read any testimony linking Trump to calling for an armed insurrection. If you can link me to some such testimony, please do. Him being a loser watching TV eating Big Macs while the thugs were attacking our election process is not calling for an armed insurrection.
Trump failed on January 6. Luckily he was voted out before then. The less I hear about him the better, both for me, and the country.
October 27th, 2022 at 4:45:47 AM
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Wall Street Silver on Twitter: "Leaked footage of Elon's first day at Twitter 🔊sound ...🤣 https://t.co/dSpn30bbgf" / Twitter https://twitter.com/WallStreetSilv/status/1585387783606390784
RT: optimistic zerohedge @zerohedgeparody - 22h
BREAKING: ELON TELLS TWITTER EMPLOYEES THEY CAN WORK FROM HOME JUST NOT FOR TWITTER
*****************************************************************
So should I appeal to get my twitter account reactivated or should I bet on twitter shutting its doors for good when 75% of the staff gets thrown out?
Pretty sure my twitter appeal would go like this:
Skechers says Ye escorted out of building after unannounced visit.
I would imagine 75% of twitter users will be immediately suspended too, especially the blue checkmark crowd. But that will be hard to do with no staff.
Not sure if this is true, but...
RT: Hey @BillKristol have you noticed how much your Twitter traffic is down?? It’s almost like most of your followers were bots? Something must of happened at Twitter HQ
(When the replies to tweets are down 90% or more, something is way off.)
***************************************************************************************
RT: The Wall Street Journal @WSJ 1h
If Elon Musk reinstates former President Donald Trump’s Twitter account after completing a takeover of the company, several companies plan to suspend ad spending on the platform, a top ad buyer said
************************************
Trending: #IWasGoingToQuitTwitterBut Twitter quit me first.
RT: optimistic zerohedge @zerohedgeparody - 22h
BREAKING: ELON TELLS TWITTER EMPLOYEES THEY CAN WORK FROM HOME JUST NOT FOR TWITTER
*****************************************************************
So should I appeal to get my twitter account reactivated or should I bet on twitter shutting its doors for good when 75% of the staff gets thrown out?
Pretty sure my twitter appeal would go like this:
Skechers says Ye escorted out of building after unannounced visit.
I would imagine 75% of twitter users will be immediately suspended too, especially the blue checkmark crowd. But that will be hard to do with no staff.
Not sure if this is true, but...
RT: Hey @BillKristol have you noticed how much your Twitter traffic is down?? It’s almost like most of your followers were bots? Something must of happened at Twitter HQ
(When the replies to tweets are down 90% or more, something is way off.)
***************************************************************************************
RT: The Wall Street Journal @WSJ 1h
If Elon Musk reinstates former President Donald Trump’s Twitter account after completing a takeover of the company, several companies plan to suspend ad spending on the platform, a top ad buyer said
************************************
Trending: #IWasGoingToQuitTwitterBut Twitter quit me first.
Last edited by: ChumpChange on Oct 27, 2022
October 27th, 2022 at 7:20:22 AM
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Google ‘Fetterman disaster’ and you will come up with any number of articles basically quoting ‘Democrat strategists’
Here are some of their points
1. Immediately fire whoever is in charge of the campaign that allowed him to participate in a live debate
2. Immediately divert as much money as possible to a winnable election.
3. Figure out how it is possible that he did not resign from the campaign, so that a Democrat had a chance to beat Oz.
Predictit has Fetterman now with a 1/3 chance of winning, so I think giving up now is not indicated. Astonishingly, Walker is now pennies AHEAD of Warnock!
Can you imagine a conversation between Fetterman and Walker!!!!?????
I may have posted this before. But I’ll take Hochul -100,000 over Zeldin at even money if anyone is interested.
Here are some of their points
1. Immediately fire whoever is in charge of the campaign that allowed him to participate in a live debate
2. Immediately divert as much money as possible to a winnable election.
3. Figure out how it is possible that he did not resign from the campaign, so that a Democrat had a chance to beat Oz.
Predictit has Fetterman now with a 1/3 chance of winning, so I think giving up now is not indicated. Astonishingly, Walker is now pennies AHEAD of Warnock!
Can you imagine a conversation between Fetterman and Walker!!!!?????
I may have posted this before. But I’ll take Hochul -100,000 over Zeldin at even money if anyone is interested.
October 27th, 2022 at 7:47:10 AM
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Quote: EvenBobI want clarification here .Soopoo just called Trump supporters imbeciles and stupid and he's not being reprimanded for it. Does that mean I can call liberals whatever I want without repercussion?
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I didn't take action because it was a general statement and didn't single out any particular forum members nor was in response to something a Trump supporter said.
For now, go ahead and say what you have to say about liberals in general, subject to other forum rules.
I reserve the right to change my mind. Reminder that if you don't like your political speech being infringed, the rules are much more relaxed at DT.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
October 27th, 2022 at 7:49:28 AM
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Quote: SOOPOOGoogle ‘Fetterman disaster’ and you will come up with any number of articles basically quoting ‘Democrat strategists’
Here are some of their points
1. Immediately fire whoever is in charge of the campaign that allowed him to participate in a live debate
2. Immediately divert as much money as possible to a winnable election.
3. Figure out how it is possible that he did not resign from the campaign, so that a Democrat had a chance to beat Oz.
Predictit has Fetterman now with a 1/3 chance of winning, so I think giving up now is not indicated. Astonishingly, Walker is now pennies AHEAD of Warnock!
Can you imagine a conversation between Fetterman and Walker!!!!?????
I may have posted this before. But I’ll take Hochul -100,000 over Zeldin at even money if anyone is interested.
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I would suggest that the answer to #3 is that, even with the stroke, he was beating all heck out of Oz in the polling up until a month or two ago and was really lighting the Oz campaign up on social media. Dr. Oz was basically the king of gaffes for a few months getting names of grocery stores wrong in campaign ads and his campaign also caught some heat for all but making fun of Fetterman for having a stroke.
Point #1 is really the big one. All Fetterman really had to do was continue to win the ad war, donation battle and continue to own Oz all over the socials. I think the (perceived) problem with that strategy was that Oz eventually got out of his own way and stopped having so many gaffes.
According to some polls, Fetterman still has a slight to moderate lead, but the debate has probably not been accounted for in those polls yet, so we will see how it goes. I can't put an exact number on it, but I think I would give Fetterman slightly better than a 33% chance of winning, but as ever, the problem with PredictIt is the fees on the way out assuming you don't already have money on there. You'd really need to perceive that you have a super healthy advantage to want to make a new deposit.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
October 27th, 2022 at 7:52:47 AM
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Quote: WizardQuote: EvenBobI want clarification here .Soopoo just called Trump supporters imbeciles and stupid and he's not being reprimanded for it. Does that mean I can call liberals whatever I want without repercussion?
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I didn't take action because it was a general statement and didn't single out any particular forum members nor was in response to something a Trump supporter said.
For now, go ahead and say what you have to say about liberals in general, subject to other forum rules.
I reserve the right to change my mind. Reminder that if you don't like your political speech being infringed, the rules are much more relaxed at DT.
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Good call Wiz! I like to think I am the member that BOTH sides want suspended! I’ll make Bob happy…. If you are a minion of Omar, AOC, Talib, et al…. You are an imbecile!
October 27th, 2022 at 8:27:05 AM
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Quote: JackSpadeYou'd have to believe Biden will commit an offense that is widely perceived as impeachable. So far he has not.
I agree with this, but there are a lot of GOP members that believe he has. Marjorie Taylor Greene, for example, has unsuccessfully tried several times to get an impeachment going already.
Quote:It would be in the GOP's interest to keep Biden in office so they can run against him in 2024. Impeachment would likely backfire politically and is therefore unlikely to be on Speaker Kevin McCarthy's agenda.
Biden failing to finish out his term for any reason would be a better bet. If at some point he knew that he was going to be impeached, he might just offer to resign to avoid the process playing out. He might resign for health or other reasons. He might also die.
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I think they would level an impeachment or two purely for show, for "revenge" on the Democrats for doing it to Trump and to cheapen the process. I don't think anyone seriously is going to try and remove him from office, though, even if the GOP takes the Senate. If he resigns, it would have to be soon, because they would probably want to warm people up as much as possible to Kamala Harris to prep her for a 2024 run.
Quote: ChumpChangeImpeachment is going nowhere without 67 senate votes. It will be a GOP talking point full of lies.
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Yes, but that's what they want.
Most of the GOP's platform is just empty talking points. They didn't even have a new platform in 2020; they literally just said "we're just gonna go with whatever we said in 2016." (Interestingly, their 2016 platform supports Puerto Rican statehood.)
Quote: EvenBob
We will never have a true idea of how badly Trump winning in 2016 hurt the liberal agenda. That's why they were so upset because Hillary was supposed to win and be coronated and it was going to set the table for them to be in power for the next 10 to 15 years and change the entire framework of the United States. And Trump screwed all that up.
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You're correct here, but not for the reasons you think you are....LOL
October 27th, 2022 at 8:50:06 AM
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So much talk about NY’s Governor race…. Yet we are sleeping on OK’s Governor race.
Ding Dong the Witch is Dead
October 27th, 2022 at 9:07:22 AM
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Quote: ams288So much talk about NY’s Governor race…. Yet we are sleeping on OK’s Governor race.
I live in Oklahoma. It is an extremely conservative state. 100% of counties went for Trump both times.
But I think people are veeerrrry slowly becoming less and less conservative around here, especially in the cities and larger towns. In 2016 I saw a decent number of Trump signs in people's yards. In 2020 I saw almost none. There were, I think, three Biden signs on my block alone and zero Trump signs (unless you count a tiny bumper sticker on one car at the end of the block).
I haven't heard anything good about Stitt, the current Republican Governor. Haven't seen a single Stitt sign in anyone's yards, but I've seen a TON of Joy Hofmeister signs around. If Stitt wins again, it is going to be by the skin of his teeth; he's barely ahead in the polls as it is. It's going to be very interesting if Oklahoma gets a Democrat governor.
I won't be surprised if 100% of Oklahoma counties go to the Republican Pres. candidate in 2024, but I also won't be surprised if a few of the more "liberal" counties finally turn blue.
October 27th, 2022 at 9:49:36 AM
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Oklahoma has long been presumed to be safe R for governor. It doesn't even register in the odds because nobody was willing to take the other side. If it has suddenly become competitive, that's quite a stunning development - especially given that most other states are seeing Republicans rise in the polls.
I know Stitt has been implicated in some scandals, but I thought they were old news.
Oklahoma would appear to be becoming 'less conservative' if you look at the rapid proliferation of marijuana dispensaries in its cities. But that doesn't appear to be correlating at all with more votes for Democrats. OK City used to have a Democrat in Congress but now the district is safe R.
Anyway, if Stitt is struggling it has everything to do with him and nothing to do with his party affiliation.
I know Stitt has been implicated in some scandals, but I thought they were old news.
Oklahoma would appear to be becoming 'less conservative' if you look at the rapid proliferation of marijuana dispensaries in its cities. But that doesn't appear to be correlating at all with more votes for Democrats. OK City used to have a Democrat in Congress but now the district is safe R.
Anyway, if Stitt is struggling it has everything to do with him and nothing to do with his party affiliation.
October 27th, 2022 at 10:02:56 AM
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Quote: TigerWuPredictit currently has a Biden impeachment at 31 cents. I feel like this is way too low. I think a Biden impeachment is a lock once Republicans take over the House.
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I disagree Tiger. If the "red" wave occurs which would be a mandate, I believe the GOP membership will actually try to get something done, but to no avail. Biden's administration and DOJ will present obstacles that a slim senate majority cannot overcome. Somehow they will need to inform the populace of the FBI and DOJ's lack of intensity on crime, immigration, etc. while at the same time trying to get energy, inflation, and foreign policy moving in the right direction.
Their biggest problem is media bias and getting the messages out to the uninformed.
tuttigym
October 27th, 2022 at 10:05:49 AM
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Quote: ams288So much talk about NY’s Governor race…. Yet we are sleeping on OK’s Governor race.
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I can’t even find betting odds on Predictit. Stitt must be an incredibly weak candidate. I care little about Governor races outside of my home state. I care somewhat about Senate and House races. The makeup of the house and Senate affects all Americans. The governor of Oklahoma is a blip on my radar screen.
October 27th, 2022 at 10:10:49 AM
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Quote: GenoDRPhQuote: tuttigymQuote: TigerWu
What is the double standard?
It seems the majority of convictions shown were for "parading and demonstrating." I am assuming that those who were convicted were Republican. Doesn't the First Amendment allow for "public assembly" and "free speech"? Do we now have precedent to arrest anyone who "parades" and "demonstrates" for or against causes?
As I posted previously, lawlessness in any form is unacceptable and should be accountable, and it should be equal regardless of political views.
tuttigym
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Can you cite convictions for parading and/or demonstrating for any Jan 6 defendant?
Gene
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I do not know how to post a link but on page 11 of this thread, TigerWu posted the link of the cases and convictions. It is quite informative and seems to be very accurate. Thanks Tiger.
tuttigym
October 27th, 2022 at 10:37:44 AM
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Quote: TigerWuQuote: ams288So much talk about NY’s Governor race…. Yet we are sleeping on OK’s Governor race.
I live in Oklahoma. It is an extremely conservative state. 100% of counties went for Trump both times.
But I think people are veeerrrry slowly becoming less and less conservative around here, especially in the cities and larger towns. In 2016 I saw a decent number of Trump signs in people's yards. In 2020 I saw almost none. There were, I think, three Biden signs on my block alone and zero Trump signs (unless you count a tiny bumper sticker on one car at the end of the block).
I haven't heard anything good about Stitt, the current Republican Governor. Haven't seen a single Stitt sign in anyone's yards, but I've seen a TON of Joy Hofmeister signs around. If Stitt wins again, it is going to be by the skin of his teeth; he's barely ahead in the polls as it is. It's going to be very interesting if Oklahoma gets a Democrat governor.
I won't be surprised if 100% of Oklahoma counties go to the Republican Pres. candidate in 2024, but I also won't be surprised if a few of the more "liberal" counties finally turn blue.
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I think your state is experiencing a population shift of "carpetbaggers" from CA, NY, WA., etc.
tuttigym
October 27th, 2022 at 11:06:37 AM
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Quote: tuttigymQuote: GenoDRPhQuote: tuttigymQuote: TigerWu
What is the double standard?
It seems the majority of convictions shown were for "parading and demonstrating." I am assuming that those who were convicted were Republican. Doesn't the First Amendment allow for "public assembly" and "free speech"? Do we now have precedent to arrest anyone who "parades" and "demonstrates" for or against causes?
As I posted previously, lawlessness in any form is unacceptable and should be accountable, and it should be equal regardless of political views.
tuttigym
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Can you cite convictions for parading and/or demonstrating for any Jan 6 defendant?
Gene
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I do not know how to post a link but on page 11 of this thread, TigerWu posted the link of the cases and convictions. It is quite informative and seems to be very accurate. Thanks Tiger.
tuttigym
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And none were for parading or demonstrating. All were for crimes, sometimes violent ones.
Gene
October 27th, 2022 at 11:17:08 AM
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Quote: SOOPOOQuote: GenoDRPhQuote: EvenBobQuote: SOOPOO
I’m not about to read a thousand word post. Please give me ONE where he CALLED FOR an armed insurrection. Thanks.
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They never will because he never did and they know he ever did. All they have is guesswork about what was in his mind or they have a second cousin who knows an intern who works in the White House who heard somebody say that they heard somebody else say that somebody overheard Trump call for an insurrection. That's all they have, which is nothing. This is why the January 6th hearings are such a clown show joke. Nobody cares, nobody watches them because they're ado about nothing. Remember all that summer 2020 black lives matter and antifa we're literally burning cities down in Democratic districts and nothing was done. Where are the hearings about that.
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So far, the Jan 6 testimony is first hand accounts. So you have evidence of non first-hand accounts and hearsay?
Gene
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I’ve not read any testimony linking Trump to calling for an armed insurrection. If you can link me to some such testimony, please do. Him being a loser watching TV eating Big Macs while the thugs were attacking our election process is not calling for an armed insurrection.
Trump failed on January 6. Luckily he was voted out before then. The less I hear about him the better, both for me, and the country.
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We've already addressed his support for the rally goers and those marching to the Capital to be armed. As well, Multiple persons inside the WH gave sworn testimony under oath of Trump's support for the insurrectionists while it was occurring. His public statements since have only reinforced that support. To wit:
https://www.npr.org/2022/07/22/1112323797/jan-6-hearing-recap-187-minutes
Good enough for you?
Gene
October 27th, 2022 at 11:58:37 AM
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Quote: GenoDRPhAnd none were for parading or demonstrating. All were for crimes, sometimes violent ones.
Gene
You need to read the last column showing results of trials or adjudications. There were guilty pleas for "parading" and "demonstrating."
tuttigym
October 27th, 2022 at 12:59:09 PM
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Quote: GenoDRPhQuote: SOOPOOQuote: GenoDRPhQuote: EvenBobQuote: SOOPOO
I’m not about to read a thousand word post. Please give me ONE where he CALLED FOR an armed insurrection. Thanks.
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They never will because he never did and they know he ever did. All they have is guesswork about what was in his mind or they have a second cousin who knows an intern who works in the White House who heard somebody say that they heard somebody else say that somebody overheard Trump call for an insurrection. That's all they have, which is nothing. This is why the January 6th hearings are such a clown show joke. Nobody cares, nobody watches them because they're ado about nothing. Remember all that summer 2020 black lives matter and antifa we're literally burning cities down in Democratic districts and nothing was done. Where are the hearings about that.
link to original post
So far, the Jan 6 testimony is first hand accounts. So you have evidence of non first-hand accounts and hearsay?
Gene
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I’ve not read any testimony linking Trump to calling for an armed insurrection. If you can link me to some such testimony, please do. Him being a loser watching TV eating Big Macs while the thugs were attacking our election process is not calling for an armed insurrection.
Trump failed on January 6. Luckily he was voted out before then. The less I hear about him the better, both for me, and the country.
link to original post
We've already addressed his support for the rally goers and those marching to the Capital to be armed. As well, Multiple persons inside the WH gave sworn testimony under oath of Trump's support for the insurrectionists while it was occurring. His public statements since have only reinforced that support. To wit:
https://www.npr.org/2022/07/22/1112323797/jan-6-hearing-recap-187-minutes
Good enough for you?
Gene
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Good enough for me to label Trump a bad man, and unfit to be President. Not enough for me to convict him of a crime. There are probably tens of millions of Americans that would 'support' those that attacked the Capitol. By "support' I mean being happy it was happening. If by 'support' you mean providing the arms for the purpose of the attack, or participated in the attack, then I think we have prosecuted those responsible already. Trump may be responsible for the behavior of his supporters in a vague sense, but not in a criminal sense. Your link does nothing to change that fact. He WILL NOT be convicted of anything relating to the january 6 insurrection attempt, unless there is evidence that has not been made public yet.
October 27th, 2022 at 1:01:16 PM
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Trump's lawyers say he will testify to the Jan. 6th Committee, but it's doubtful Trump has heard that yet.
October 27th, 2022 at 1:03:00 PM
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Quote: SOOPOOHe WILL NOT be convicted of anything relating to the january 6 insurrection attempt, unless there is evidence that has not been made public yet.
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I agree. If they pinch him for anything it will be Mar-a-lago related, or for one of those boring financial investigations going on in New York, and even then it's going to be a slap on the wrist. If the GOP takes Congress and Trump announces a 2024 run, then I bet even all that will go away.
October 27th, 2022 at 1:50:26 PM
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Quote: tuttigymQuote: TigerWu
What is the double standard?
It seems the majority of convictions shown were for "parading and demonstrating." I am assuming that those who were convicted were Republican. Doesn't the First Amendment allow for "public assembly" and "free speech"? Do we now have precedent to arrest anyone who "parades" and "demonstrates" for or against causes?
As I posted previously, lawlessness in any form is unacceptable and should be accountable, and it should be equal regardless of political views.
tuttigym
link to original post
Not necessarily. Title 40, Section 5104(e)(2)(G) of the United States Code says: "An individual or group of individuals may not willfully and knowingly parade, demonstrate, or picket in any of the Capitol Buildings." Notice that parading, demonstrating, and picketing outside of the buildings is not a crime in and of itself.
Note that Title 40, Section 5104(e)(2)(C)(i) says that it is also illegal, "with the intent to disrupt the orderly conduct of official business, enter or remain in a room in any of the Capitol Buildings set aside or designated for the use of either House of Congress or a Member, committee, officer, or employee of Congress, or either House of Congress."
Full text of 40 USC 5104
October 27th, 2022 at 2:14:31 PM
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Dup deleted
Gene
Gene
October 27th, 2022 at 2:14:38 PM
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Here in MA, we have an open race for governor, all Congressional seats, all state house and state senate seats and 4 ballot questions. None of the races are competitive, as the Democratic incumbents or candidates are expected to win handily and with the exception of the Governor's race, none are drawing much media or public attention. Our incumbent Gov, Republican Charlie Baker, is not running for reelection. He is the most popular Governor in the country and is considered among the last of a dying breed-a moderate pro-choice Republican. The Mass GOP has lurched far to the right and none of their candidate's rhetoric is flying here at all.
Most of the public and media attention is on the four ballot questions. Question #1 will impose a 4% surtax on incomes over $1 million. Question #2 rewrites the insurance laws regarding dental insurance, question #3 increases the number of liquor licenses for stores and question #4 would repeal an already existing law allowing illegal immigrants to get a MA driver license.
Gene
Most of the public and media attention is on the four ballot questions. Question #1 will impose a 4% surtax on incomes over $1 million. Question #2 rewrites the insurance laws regarding dental insurance, question #3 increases the number of liquor licenses for stores and question #4 would repeal an already existing law allowing illegal immigrants to get a MA driver license.
Gene
October 27th, 2022 at 3:02:02 PM
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Quote: TigerWu\
I live in Oklahoma. It is an extremely conservative state.
People live in Oklahoma? I assumed it was just there to breed NFL quarterbacks.
I have been to Oral Roberts University, the Alfred Murrah building, and of course Cattleman's.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
October 27th, 2022 at 3:15:58 PM
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Chuck Schumer caught on a hot mic talking to Biden:
https://twitter.com/riegerreport/status/1585728117200543748?s=46&t=swXgXdIE34eIcUhlUJTLcg
Reminder: GA goes to a runoff in January if no one gets to 50% (pretty likely).
Quote:"It looks like the debate didn't hurt us too much in Pennsylvania as of today, so that's good...we're picking up steam in Nevada...The state where we're going downhill is Georgia. It's hard to believe that they will go for Herschel Walker."
https://twitter.com/riegerreport/status/1585728117200543748?s=46&t=swXgXdIE34eIcUhlUJTLcg
Reminder: GA goes to a runoff in January if no one gets to 50% (pretty likely).
Ding Dong the Witch is Dead
October 27th, 2022 at 3:25:31 PM
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Quote: DRich
People live in Oklahoma?
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I'm convinced that no one actually wants to live here, but it's so cheap that no one can bring themselves to leave!
Quote: ams288Chuck Schumer caught on a hot mic talking to Biden:
Quote:"....... It's hard to believe that they will go for Herschel Walker."
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He's 100% right.... Walker is an absolute train wreck. I know people in Georgia, and they're all leaving the state next year because apparently the politics down there is going to hell.
October 27th, 2022 at 11:53:16 PM
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https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7112/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-US-Senate-election-in-Arizona
I just placed a small bet on Masters to lose. I also have a bet that AZ will be the closest Senate race. I think it's 50/50, polls show Kelly is slightly ahead, but bettors are now favoring Masters to win. Given the pricing, I think Kelly is the better bet.
Plus, I wanted to hedge my bet that Fetterman will lose to Dr. Oz in case the red wave fails to materialize. Democracy is strange, voters don't always act rationally or predictably, and Fetterman's communication disability might endear him to lots of people who will cast sympathy votes.
I just placed a small bet on Masters to lose. I also have a bet that AZ will be the closest Senate race. I think it's 50/50, polls show Kelly is slightly ahead, but bettors are now favoring Masters to win. Given the pricing, I think Kelly is the better bet.
Plus, I wanted to hedge my bet that Fetterman will lose to Dr. Oz in case the red wave fails to materialize. Democracy is strange, voters don't always act rationally or predictably, and Fetterman's communication disability might endear him to lots of people who will cast sympathy votes.
October 28th, 2022 at 6:39:26 AM
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Quote: JackSpadehttps://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7112/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-US-Senate-election-in-Arizona
I just placed a small bet on Masters to lose. I also have a bet that AZ will be the closest Senate race. I think it's 50/50, polls show Kelly is slightly ahead, but bettors are now favoring Masters to win. Given the pricing, I think Kelly is the better bet.
Plus, I wanted to hedge my bet that Fetterman will lose to Dr. Oz in case the red wave fails to materialize. Democracy is strange, voters don't always act rationally or predictably, and Fetterman's communication disability might endear him to lots of people who will cast sympathy votes.
link to original post
Here's the thing about Fetterman: I don't know whether or not his present health issues are going to matter to moderates (what few seem to be left) or independents, but I am almost positive it wouldn't impact his turnout amongst Democrats.
Given the political division in this country and the fact that Fetterman is considered to be pretty well left of center, he doesn't have to be able to speak---or really do much else particularly well---to just go in and vote party line. I actually think his health issues would be more impactful if he wasn't so far to the left, at least, among people who are highly inclined to vote blue anyway.
Another aspect that I consider is that Oz was all but handpicked by Trump, which is arguably why he would have any chance of winning in Pennsylvania to begin with, (given that he is, objectively, a carpetbagger--'moved in' with his inlaws just so that he could run) but also is a negative for those independents and moderates (of which there are arguably enough) who don't particularly care for Trump and would not be inclined to vote for someone just because Trump endorsed him, or perhaps are even less likely to vote for someone because of that.
I think that's also evidenced by the fact that, despite Trump's endorsement, Oz only narrowly defeated another carpetbagger (though one with stronger ties to PA), Dave McCormick, in the primary. In the meantime, Fetterman absolutely ran away with the Democratic nomination in that primary.
The most recent poll has Oz with a slight lead over Fetterman (the pollster was InsiderAdvantage and I found this on 538), but that consists of 750 likely voters, which is a small sample size to say the least. The InsiderAdvantage poll also asked who voters thought won the Fetterman/Oz debates and, unsurprisingly, voters went for Oz in basically a no contest well beyond any margin of error.
In short, I think it's really anyone's race and would give a slight advantage to Oz. My opinion is for discussion purposes only and should not be taken as betting advice, but if I had to call it, I would give Fetterman somewhere between a 40-45% probability of winning. I might adjust this as more recent polls come out.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
October 28th, 2022 at 6:46:54 AM
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The current metro area population of Philadelphia in 2022 is 5,756,000, a 0.38% increase from 2021. The metro area population of Philadelphia in 2021 was 5,734,000, a 0.3% increase from 2020. The metro area population of Philadelphia in 2020 was 5,717,000, a 0.21% increase from 2019.
Pennsylvania (U.S. state abbreviation is 'PA') is the north-eastern state of USA borders New York to the east and north, Ohio to the west, Maryland to the south. Pennsylvania population in 2022 is estimated to be 12.9 million and 5th most populous US state. (What? No NJ?)
Pennsylvania Demographics: White: 79.37%, Black or African American: 11.09%, Asian: 3.51%, Two or more races: 3.38%
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Study: 52% say they are not giving out candy for Halloween this year because of inflation.
Pennsylvania (U.S. state abbreviation is 'PA') is the north-eastern state of USA borders New York to the east and north, Ohio to the west, Maryland to the south. Pennsylvania population in 2022 is estimated to be 12.9 million and 5th most populous US state. (What? No NJ?)
Pennsylvania Demographics: White: 79.37%, Black or African American: 11.09%, Asian: 3.51%, Two or more races: 3.38%
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Study: 52% say they are not giving out candy for Halloween this year because of inflation.
October 28th, 2022 at 6:48:55 AM
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In the meantime, according to the same pollster, Shapiro leads Mastriano in the PA gubernatorial race 50%-42% with 4% going for Libertarian Matt Hackenburg and 4% either undecided or voting for some other person.
Recent advertisements have many quotes of Mastriano saying things such as gay marriage should be made absolutely illegal (not that he'd have the power to actually do such a thing as Federal law and SCOTUS decisions are presently contrary to that) and he is also pro-life and proudly gives no way for any exceptions whatsoever.
It's really tough to imagine Mastriano winning, but there is an outside shot if he somehow gets every far right conservative to turnout for him. Given how far to the right he is on these social issues, and how vociferous he is about those positions, I really have a tough time envisioning him collecting very many independent or moderate votes.
What might swing an additional 1-3% his way, in my opinion, is that recent history has indicated that of those who say they are going to vote for the Libertarian, (in polls) half or more tend to break for one of the major parties when the time comes to actually cast their vote and those voters tend to break for the Republican...not 100%, but certainly disproportionately favor the Republican.
Of course, it might be different this time if the Libertarians in question prioritize these social issues. I'm no expert, but I would say that a high percentage of Libertarians favor gay marriage (not that Mastriano could do anything about it anyway) and while the pro-life/pro-choice is pretty split depending on religious views, Libertarians do tend to have a strong opinion on the issue regardless of what side they are on.
I guess, if nothing else, we can give it to Mastriano for at least being honest about his views. He's made it pretty clear that he has no interest in appealing to moderates whatsoever.
Recent advertisements have many quotes of Mastriano saying things such as gay marriage should be made absolutely illegal (not that he'd have the power to actually do such a thing as Federal law and SCOTUS decisions are presently contrary to that) and he is also pro-life and proudly gives no way for any exceptions whatsoever.
It's really tough to imagine Mastriano winning, but there is an outside shot if he somehow gets every far right conservative to turnout for him. Given how far to the right he is on these social issues, and how vociferous he is about those positions, I really have a tough time envisioning him collecting very many independent or moderate votes.
What might swing an additional 1-3% his way, in my opinion, is that recent history has indicated that of those who say they are going to vote for the Libertarian, (in polls) half or more tend to break for one of the major parties when the time comes to actually cast their vote and those voters tend to break for the Republican...not 100%, but certainly disproportionately favor the Republican.
Of course, it might be different this time if the Libertarians in question prioritize these social issues. I'm no expert, but I would say that a high percentage of Libertarians favor gay marriage (not that Mastriano could do anything about it anyway) and while the pro-life/pro-choice is pretty split depending on religious views, Libertarians do tend to have a strong opinion on the issue regardless of what side they are on.
I guess, if nothing else, we can give it to Mastriano for at least being honest about his views. He's made it pretty clear that he has no interest in appealing to moderates whatsoever.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
October 28th, 2022 at 8:10:09 AM
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Since we were talking about this a few pages ago:
Newly un-redacted report shows how feds politicized response to 2020 Portland protests
Newly un-redacted report shows how feds politicized response to 2020 Portland protests
Quote:Since 2020, Oregon Senator Ron Wyden and other members of Oregon’s congressional delegation have pressed the Justice Department and DHS for more details about the Trump administration’s response to the 2020 racial justice protests. In a statement Thursday, Wyden said Oregonians have a right to a full accounting of the Trump administration’s “twisted efforts to provoke violence in Portland for his political gain.”
“Now the public knows much more about how political DHS officials spied on Oregonians for exercising their First Amendment right to protest and justified it with baseless conspiracy theories,” Wyden said.
October 28th, 2022 at 9:21:10 AM
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I have been fascinated about PredictIt once I became aware of it. I always assumed it was not available to US citizens. I was wrong. Apparently they got some letter of exemption allowing them to accept US bettors if certain conditions were met. And also apparently the US Gov has decided that the conditions are not being met and thus it will be made illegal in February of 2023.
It seemed like a gold mine of available bets. I can get Democrat to win Colorado Senate and only have to lay 7-1? Only 13-1 to get Democrat to win Illinois Governor? Only 11-1 to get Republican to win Utah Senate race? There are more egregious ones with odds of 20-1 or longer that are sure bets.
If they weren't being closed down I'd join. (I would have lost $$$ on Clinton over Trump!)
Anyone with any first hand experience with them?
It seemed like a gold mine of available bets. I can get Democrat to win Colorado Senate and only have to lay 7-1? Only 13-1 to get Democrat to win Illinois Governor? Only 11-1 to get Republican to win Utah Senate race? There are more egregious ones with odds of 20-1 or longer that are sure bets.
If they weren't being closed down I'd join. (I would have lost $$$ on Clinton over Trump!)
Anyone with any first hand experience with them?
October 28th, 2022 at 9:35:36 AM
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The Pelosi residence in San Francisco was intruded upon last night and a hammer wielding assailant attacked Nancy Pelosi's husband while shouting "Where's Nancy!". So this appears to be a MAGA-related attack and the suspect has been captured. Pelosi's husband is in the hospital with facial injuries. A press conference will be starting imminently on select cable news channels, just don't know which ones. Nancy has security with her wherever she goes, but she wasn't at home, so her husband & residence was apparently unguarded. The suspect will be guilty of a federal crime, but justice rarely gets served these days.
October 28th, 2022 at 9:41:53 AM
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Quote: ChumpChangeThe Pelosi residence in San Francisco was intruded upon last night and a hammer wielding assailant attacked Nancy Pelosi's husband while shouting "Where's Nancy!". So this appears to be a MAGA-related attack and the suspect has been captured. Pelosi's husband is in the hospital with facial injuries. A press conference will be starting imminently on select cable news channels, just don't know which ones. Nancy has security with her wherever she goes, but she wasn't at home, so her husband & residence was apparently unguarded. The suspect will be guilty of a federal crime, but justice rarely gets served these days.
link to original post
Well if it happened in California to anyone OTHER than a Democrat politician or her family the assailant would be out on 'no bail' already.
I hope the assailant is given a life sentence for whatever crimes he can be charged with.
Clearly, both the Left and the Right will be using this attack for political gain.
My guess is (ever so slightly) more valuable to attack the 'soft on crime' Democrats.
October 28th, 2022 at 9:46:15 AM
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Quote: ChumpChangeThe Pelosi residence in San Francisco was intruded upon last night and a hammer wielding assailant attacked Nancy Pelosi's husband while shouting "Where's Nancy!". So this appears to be a MAGA-related attack and the suspect has been captured.
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Pff....it's obviously a deep-state, false-flag, Antifa psyop just to make Trump look bad. I bet if you look in that guy's wallet you'll find hundreds of dollars in Soros-bux.
October 28th, 2022 at 9:50:14 AM
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Quote: TigerWuQuote: ChumpChangeThe Pelosi residence in San Francisco was intruded upon last night and a hammer wielding assailant attacked Nancy Pelosi's husband while shouting "Where's Nancy!". So this appears to be a MAGA-related attack and the suspect has been captured.
link to original post
Pff....it's obviously a deep-state, false-flag, Antifa psyop just to make Trump look bad. I bet if you look in that guy's wallet you'll find hundreds of dollars in Soros-bux.
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I'm afraid that would be the first reaction of my immediate relatives.
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An assailant identified as David Depape broke into the couple's home early Friday morning and "violently assaulted" the 82-year-old Paul Pelosi with a hammer, causing blunt-force trauma to his head and body, and the House speaker's husband reportedly underwent brain surgery.
Depape, of Berkeley, has previously made news for taking part in nude anti-war protests in the Castro neighborhood.
The attacker tried to tie up Pelosi until his wife returned home and was asking "where is Nancy," and he allegedly told police he was waiting for the House speaker when they arrived.
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TV news says his social media posts are insane QAnon conspiracy posts, Alex Jones stuff at least.
Does Elon Musk want to get sued for a billion dollars for letting Alex Jones back onto twitter?
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RT: BREAKING 🚨: Twitter reportedly hiring Iver Mectin to tackle Covid-19 misinformation across the platform.
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Kanye West’s Twitter account restored -
RT ElonMusk: Ye’s account was restored by Twitter before the acquisition. They did not consult with or inform me.
3:10 PM · Oct 28, 2022
(He's either lying or refusing to suspend him again.)
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Real: Elon Musk Pledges to Spend First Day as Twitter Boss Helping User Named Catturd
Last edited by: ChumpChange on Oct 28, 2022
