Election Betting
I think the discussion of "election odds" must necessarily have a component that is a discussion of odds that Biden will continue to be a candidate. Certainly, that kind of discussion is allowed. I do agree with Darkoz that a couple of posts slipped into partisanship a bit, but it was minor; please consider this to be a gently-worded reminder/warning to everyone to keep partisan remarks out of your posts.
During a time in which changes in election odds might be the top topic of almost every newscast, I don't think it's appropriate to have a hair-trigger on closing this thread.
Quote: gordonm888Remember that VP nominees are selected on the floor of the convention by votes of the state delegations; they are not bound by the rules to the preference of the Presidential nominee
link to original post
While that's true to a point, in fact, this isn't quite the way it works.
The Democratic Party "Call to the Convention" does specify that there is a roll call for VP, but I don't think there has been a full roll call since probably the 1980s. What happened at first was this:
(Chair) The Secretary will call the roll.
(Secretary) Alabama
(Alabama delegation) Alabama yields to {usually the state the President's VP choice is from}
(Secretary) {VP's state}
(VP's state delegate) Mister/Madam Chair, we move to suspend the rules and nominate the VP nominee by acclamation.
(Chair) The motion is to suspend the rules and nominate the VP nominee by acclamation. All those in favor?
(Pretty much everybody) AYE!
(Chair) All those opposed?
(there's always one - occasionally, quite a few) no
(Chair) In the opinion of the chair, the ayes have it, and {the President's VP choice} is the Democratic Party Nominee for Vice President.
I think that, if there is only one VP nominee, they go right to the vote for acclamation, but I'm not sure they even do that any more. Note that the Democratic Party requires a 2/3 vote to suspend the rules. Also note that "superdelegates" are allowed to vote on the first VP ballot.
A Democratic Party VP nominee requires a petition with between 300 and 600 delegates' signatures on it, no more than 50 being from any particular state.
The Republicans don't even bother with the vote by acclamation (which, unlike the Democrats, requires only a majority vote).
Republican Party Rule 40(a): "if there is only one candidate for nomination for Vice President of the United States who has demonstrated the support required by paragraph (b) of this rule, a motion to nominate for such office by acclamation shall be in order and no calling of the roll with respect to such office shall be required."
Rule 40(b) says that a candidate for VP requires the support of a majority of the delegates of at least eight states.
https://www.reviewjournal.com/sports/betting/bidens-election-betting-odds-plummet-after-debate-with-trump-3076803/?utm_campaign=widget&utm_medium=latest&utm_source=homepage&utm_term=Biden%E2%80%99s%20election%20betting%20odds%20plummet%20after%20debate%20with%20Trump
Yes. He had a bad day. We've all had bad days. But that doesn't erase all the good he has done for the country in the past four years or the good he will do in the next four and blah blah blah.
Will voters buy it? This late in the game, if Biden doesn't voluntarily step aside they don't have a choice. The primaries are over and he has all the delegates.
They could force him to leave for health reasons, but how would that scenario play out? The blue team would break into pro and anti Biden factions with the anti further subdivided by who the replacement should be. By the time a person was selected and fences mended with the losers, Americans would be belching out their Thanksgiving dinners while the Trump transition team plans out the next four years.
So for team blue, Biden is the guy. The only thing to do now is wait for the new battleground state polls and then see if New York puts Trump in prison.
Quote: GialmereDespite the knee jerk calls to withdraw, Biden has made it clear that he's not going anywhere. Considering the circumstances, the evolving spin is pretty good, along the lines of...
Yes. He had a bad day. We've all had bad days. But that doesn't erase all the good he has done for the country in the past four years or the good he will do in the next four and blah blah blah.
Will voters buy it? This late in the game, if Biden doesn't voluntarily step aside they don't have a choice. The primaries are over and he has all the delegates.
They could force him to leave for health reasons, but how would that scenario play out? The blue team would break into pro and anti Biden factions with the anti further subdivided by who the replacement should be. By the time a person was selected and fences mended with the losers, Americans would be belching out their Thanksgiving dinners while the Trump transition team plans out the next four years.
So for team blue, Biden is the guy. The only thing to do now is wait for the new battleground state polls and then see if New York puts Trump in prison.
link to original post
I don't think you understand the spirit of this thread. Your post is 100% political and has nothing to do with what the thread is about, it's why it keeps getting closed down.
Quote: EvenBobQuote: GialmereDespite the knee jerk calls to withdraw, Biden has made it clear that he's not going anywhere. Considering the circumstances, the evolving spin is pretty good, along the lines of...
Yes. He had a bad day. We've all had bad days. But that doesn't erase all the good he has done for the country in the past four years or the good he will do in the next four and blah blah blah.
Will voters buy it? This late in the game, if Biden doesn't voluntarily step aside they don't have a choice. The primaries are over and he has all the delegates.
They could force him to leave for health reasons, but how would that scenario play out? The blue team would break into pro and anti Biden factions with the anti further subdivided by who the replacement should be. By the time a person was selected and fences mended with the losers, Americans would be belching out their Thanksgiving dinners while the Trump transition team plans out the next four years.
So for team blue, Biden is the guy. The only thing to do now is wait for the new battleground state polls and then see if New York puts Trump in prison.
link to original post
I don't think you understand the spirit of this thread. Your post is 100% political and has nothing to do with what the thread is about, it's why it keeps getting closed down.
link to original post
Pot calling the kettle black.
Quote: unJonQuote: ams288I think there is enough evidence from the past decade to show that debates don’t matter at all.
link to original post
Posts that haven’t aged well.
link to original post
Quote:New general Election Poll - Post debate
🔵 Biden 45% (+1)
🔴 Trump 44%
Last poll was a tie
Morning Consult - 2000 RV - 6/28
One thing is certain: No one knows anything.
Quote: ams288
One thing is certain: No one knows anything.
link to original post
General polling still shows Trump and Biden pretty neck and neck. It's just the betting odds where there's a lot of movement, especially from the debate.
Quote: TigerWuQuote: ams288
One thing is certain: No one knows anything.
link to original post
General polling still shows Trump and Biden pretty neck and neck. It's just the betting odds where there's a lot of movement, especially from the debate.
link to original post
For the one thousandth time…. If the ‘general polling’ shows Biden and Trump neck and neck in the popular vote, that is an EASY electoral college win for Trump.
If they are really tied in the popular vote polling, OF COURSE Trump will be favored by a betting site.
Quote: ams288Quote: unJonQuote: ams288I think there is enough evidence from the past decade to show that debates don’t matter at all.
link to original post
Posts that haven’t aged well.
link to original postQuote:New general Election Poll - Post debate
🔵 Biden 45% (+1)
🔴 Trump 44%
Last poll was a tie
Morning Consult - 2000 RV - 6/28
One thing is certain: No one knows anything.
link to original post
I don’t think you actually believe what you posted is meaningful.
Quote: EvenBobI don't think you understand the spirit of this thread. Your post is 100% political and has nothing to do with what the thread is about, it's why it keeps getting closed down.
link to original post
I would say it's 100% analytical. To rephrase:
Newsom is a sucker bet.
Quote: unJonQuote: ams288Quote: unJonQuote: ams288I think there is enough evidence from the past decade to show that debates don’t matter at all.
link to original post
Posts that haven’t aged well.
link to original postQuote:New general Election Poll - Post debate
🔵 Biden 45% (+1)
🔴 Trump 44%
Last poll was a tie
Morning Consult - 2000 RV - 6/28
One thing is certain: No one knows anything.
link to original post
I don’t think you actually believe what you posted is meaningful.
link to original post
I believe it is more meaningful than any number one could post from PredictIt or some other betting site.
Quote: ams288Quote: unJonQuote: ams288Quote: unJonQuote: ams288I think there is enough evidence from the past decade to show that debates don’t matter at all.
link to original post
Posts that haven’t aged well.
link to original postQuote:New general Election Poll - Post debate
🔵 Biden 45% (+1)
🔴 Trump 44%
Last poll was a tie
Morning Consult - 2000 RV - 6/28
One thing is certain: No one knows anything.
link to original post
I don’t think you actually believe what you posted is meaningful.
link to original post
I believe it is more meaningful than any number one could post from PredictIt or some other betting site.
link to original post
I have to disagree. The national totals for either Trump or Biden are close to irrelevant. They include useless stats like total votes in NY, Cali, Wyoming, Utah, etc…. If Biden wins NY by 2 million instead of 1.5 million what difference does it make?
The betting sites presumably are focused in on who will win the Electoral College, not the popular vote.
Quote: SOOPOOI have to disagree. The national totals for either Trump or Biden are close to irrelevant. They include useless stats like total votes in NY, Cali, Wyoming, Utah, etc…. If Biden wins NY by 2 million instead of 1.5 million what difference does it make?
The betting sites presumably are focused in on who will win the Electoral College, not the popular vote.
link to original post
I stand by my original statement of “no one knows anything.”
That is ESPECIALLY true of anyone foolish enough to blow their money on Election Betting sites.
Quote: ams288
I stand by my original statement of “no one knows anything.”
That is ESPECIALLY true of anyone foolish enough to blow their money on Election Betting sites.
link to original post
We are discussing the future. Thus, technically, no one knows for certain. But even though there is no certainty, we all manage to move through live, making plans and decisions, because we can cope with a future that is defined in terms of probabilities.
Here are some things that we do know. A large fraction of the electorate is locked in. The two major candidates are well known to the country. And the race is neck and neck.
Quote: gordonm888And the race is neck and neck.
I was quite surprised by your post
I didn't think that could possibly be true after the debate
in fact the linked site indicates that in their post debate poll Biden is still ahead by one point
another poll had Trump ahead by 2 points
even though they took a survey that indicated that 47% of Democratic voters want Biden replaced
so you were correct - I never would have guessed that
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/what-polls-say-after-first-2024-trump-biden-presidential-debate.html
.
Quote: lilredroosterQuote: gordonm888And the race is neck and neck.
I was quite surprised by your post
I didn't think that could possibly be true after the debate
in fact the linked site indicates that in their post debate poll Biden is still ahead by one point
another poll had Trump ahead by 2 points
even though they took a survey that indicated that 47% of Democratic voters want Biden replaced
so you were correct - I never would have guessed that
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/what-polls-say-after-first-2024-trump-biden-presidential-debate.html
link to original post
Well, I was trying to be non-controversial. My comments were intended to be a little more "meta" than applying to just this moment. The race is tight in many states and the electoral college race appears to be close. As I said, a large majority of the electorate is entrenched in their preferences. Almost everyone is extremely familiar with both these guys. I'm not claiming that things aren't changing right now, or that things won't continue to change in the next 4 months. Just that the election outcome is perched on a knife-edge. I suspect the race will be decided by the currently undecided and the double-haters; maybe the young first-time voters. And by turn-out, by enthusiasm - a factor which polls don't always capture.
Quote: gordonm888I had the extraordinary experience of not seeing the debate and not being aware until late Friday of what had happened. Because I have been absorbed by an activity in my real life. It has left me feeling somewhat dispassionate about what happened.
I think the discussion of "election odds" must necessarily have a component that is a discussion of odds that Biden will continue to be a candidate. Certainly, that kind of discussion is allowed. I do agree with Darkoz that a couple of posts slipped into partisanship a bit, but it was minor; please consider this to be a gently-worded reminder/warning to everyone to keep partisan remarks out of your posts.
During a time in which changes in election odds might be the top topic of almost every newscast, I don't think it's appropriate to have a hair-trigger on closing this thread.
link to original post
I'd like to see the odds that the 25th amendment will be invoked. At this point, we already know that the family is intervening to ensure that he doesn't run.
Quote: Keyserwe already know that the family is intervening to ensure that he doesn't run.
link to original post
Where did you read that?
Biden’s Family Tells Him to Keep Fighting as They Huddle at Camp David
President Biden is trying to figure out how to tamp down Democratic anxiety after last week’s disastrous debate performance.
Quote: lilredroosterQuote: gordonm888And the race is neck and neck.
I was quite surprised by your post
I didn't think that could possibly be true after the debate
in fact the linked site indicates that in their post debate poll Biden is still ahead by one point
another poll had Trump ahead by 2 points
even though they took a survey that indicated that 47% of Democratic voters want Biden replaced
so you were correct - I never would have guessed that
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/what-polls-say-after-first-2024-trump-biden-presidential-debate.html
.
link to original post
I don't think much changed after the debate.
Biden's debate performance sparks concerns, but voters are largely unmoved
President Joe Biden's first debate performance raises questions about his fitness for office, but a new poll suggests voters' opinions remain largely unchanged
As well, I would agree that changing horses in mid stream is generally not a good idea.
Historian who predicted 9 of the last 10 election results says Democrats shouldn't drop Joe Biden
Allan Lichtman, the historian who has correctly forecast the results of nine out of the 10 most recent presidential elections argued on Saturday that replacing President Joe Biden could cost Democrats the 2024 election.
Biden is 81
if he has an underlying condition that is causing him to become confused it can only get worse as he gets older
if his condition does get much worse as we approach November and it becomes obvious that he is incapable of performing his duties it will be too late to make a change
if that happens the Dems are in a hopeless situation
would they vote for someone for POTUS who likely suffers from dementia_________?
to me, it's a shame that Biden's ego is so large that he refuses to acknowledge what everybody knows
before Biden, Reagan was the oldest Prez and he was 77 when he left office
if Biden is elected he would be 86 at the end of his Presidency_________ he never should have decided to run again - he's a man with a gigantic ego
.
Looking at the odds makers everyday since the debate Trump has gone up Biden has gone down. If the polls show something radically different than this in the next 10 days that would be pretty strange. Not a single person who watched that debate or who's watched it since has a positive opinion of what occurred.
Quote: lilredrooster.
would they vote for someone for POTUS who likely suffers from dementia_________?
.
link to original post
They would before voting for a lying rapist convicted felon who attempted to overthrow the last election.
Strange how one side thinks the other side has boundaries while they clearly dont.
By at least his second term he couldn’t do anything like that. He was already failing due to early Alzheimer’s. Yet his Presidency managed.
Only difference now would be that Biden’s decline is public knowledge while Reagan’s was closely guarded. Older members of my family still occasionally mention how they knew about Reagan before the public knew.
And Reagan’s issue was Alzheimer’s. Biden is just getting a little slow is all.
Some people in their final years decline mentally others only physically.
Quote: MDawgMembers of my family knew Reagan well. At a dinner table when he was younger he could meet a guest once and remember his name many dinner parties later, is what I’ve been told.
By at least his second term he couldn’t do anything like that. He was already failing due to early Alzheimer’s. Yet his Presidency managed.
Only difference now would be that Biden’s decline is public knowledge while Reagan’s was closely guarded. Older members of my family still occasionally mention how they knew about Reagan before the public knew.
And Reagan’s issue was Alzheimer’s. Biden is just getting a little slow is all.
Some people in their final years decline mentally others only physically.
link to original post
Agreed.
Besides I don't understand why the American people seem to forget that if Biden or any president suddenly becomes unable to fulfill his duties that scenario has a solution called the vice president
Quote: darkoz
Besides I don't understand why the American people seem to forget that if Biden or any president suddenly becomes unable to fulfill his duties that scenario has a solution called the vice president
yes,
but if he is unable to fulfill his duties, which are considerable, before the election - that is an entirely different matter
.
Quote: lilredroosterQuote: darkoz
Besides I don't understand why the American people seem to forget that if Biden or any president suddenly becomes unable to fulfill his duties that scenario has a solution called the vice president
yes,
but if he is unable to fulfill his duties, which are considerable, before the election - that is an entirely different matter
.
link to original post
Democrats will vote for someone unable to fulfill his duties (waiting for the vice president to take over) before endangering the country with a convicted felon attempting to destroy the country
Every election in my life it’s been how future of democracy at stake, but this time it’s different, yada yada yada. I can imagine this year may be more people “throwing their vote away” and not voting for either than any prior election though based on perceived incompetence.
It is a testament to that Biden is a less than immensely popular candidate that Trump has a chance at all in 2024.
Quote: darkozQuote: lilredroosterQuote: darkoz
Besides I don't understand why the American people seem to forget that if Biden or any president suddenly becomes unable to fulfill his duties that scenario has a solution called the vice president
yes,
but if he is unable to fulfill his duties, which are considerable, before the election - that is an entirely different matter
.
link to original post
Democrats will vote for someone unable to fulfill his duties (waiting for the vice president to take over) before endangering the country with a convicted felon attempting to destroy the country
link to original post
What part of “no political posts” does your mind not grasp?
Quote: AZDuffmanQuote: darkozQuote: lilredroosterQuote: darkoz
Besides I don't understand why the American people seem to forget that if Biden or any president suddenly becomes unable to fulfill his duties that scenario has a solution called the vice president
yes,
but if he is unable to fulfill his duties, which are considerable, before the election - that is an entirely different matter
.
link to original post
Democrats will vote for someone unable to fulfill his duties (waiting for the vice president to take over) before endangering the country with a convicted felon attempting to destroy the country
link to original post
What part of “no political posts” does your mind not grasp?
link to original post
He grasps it. He is just requesting a vacation. His last few posts might as well have just said ‘please suspend me!’
Quote: SOOPOOQuote: AZDuffmanQuote: darkozQuote: lilredroosterQuote: darkoz
Besides I don't understand why the American people seem to forget that if Biden or any president suddenly becomes unable to fulfill his duties that scenario has a solution called the vice president
yes,
but if he is unable to fulfill his duties, which are considerable, before the election - that is an entirely different matter
.
link to original post
Democrats will vote for someone unable to fulfill his duties (waiting for the vice president to take over) before endangering the country with a convicted felon attempting to destroy the country
link to original post
What part of “no political posts” does your mind not grasp?
link to original post
He grasps it. He is just requesting a vacation. His last few posts might as well have just said ‘please suspend me!’
link to original post
You were referring to this one?
Quote: lilredrooster.
Biden is 81
if he has an underlying condition that is causing him to become confused it can only get worse as he gets older
if his condition does get much worse as we approach November and it becomes obvious that he is incapable of performing his duties it will be too late to make a change
if that happens the Dems are in a hopeless situation
would they vote for someone for POTUS who likely suffers from dementia_________?
to me, it's a shame that Biden's ego is so large that he refuses to acknowledge what everybody knows
before Biden, Reagan was the oldest Prez and he was 77 when he left office
if Biden is elected he would be 86 at the end of his Presidency_________ he never should have decided to run again - he's a man with a gigantic ego
.
link to original post
Or maybe this one?
Quote: mcallister3200‘20 Biden is the only candidate in the past 2 elections where a large block of people weren’t actively voting against the human being and could focus on their policies/politics. Assuming he stays it’s about if and how much that’s changed.
link to original post
Or perhaps this one?
Quote: MDawgIf there were some JFK caliber candidate around Trump would have been blown out of the water in 2016 and there would be no match up involving him at all today or ever.
It is a testament to that Biden is a less than immensely popular candidate that Trump has a chance at all in 2024.
link to original post
Or how about this one?
Quote: Keyser
I'd like to see the odds that the 25th amendment will be invoked. At this point, we already know that the family is intervening to ensure that he doesn't run.
link to original post
Oh sorry none of those were by me.
I guess we are all having a political discussion at this point.
Time for the entire thread to go on holiday?
Maybe I missed one or two, but these are 8 states that are often considered swing states.
Ohio. T + 9
Florida. T +9
Georgia. T + 6
Arizona. T +5
Nevada. T + 4
Michigan. T + 2
Pennsylvania. T +2
Wisconsin. T +1
It’s not July yet. So lots can change. But that’s a daunting task for Biden to turn around.
This was on ‘538’.
Quote: darkozQuote: lilredrooster.
would they vote for someone for POTUS who likely suffers from dementia_________?
link to original post
They would before voting for a lying rapist convicted felon who attempted to overthrow the last election.
Strange how one side thinks the other side has boundaries while they clearly dont.
link to original post
Quote: darkozQuote: lilredroosterQuote: darkoz
Besides I don't understand why the American people seem to forget that if Biden or any president suddenly becomes unable to fulfill his duties that scenario has a solution called the vice president
yes,
but if he is unable to fulfill his duties, which are considerable, before the election - that is an entirely different matter
link to original post
Democrats will vote for someone unable to fulfill his duties (waiting for the vice president to take over) before endangering the country with a convicted felon attempting to destroy the country
link to original post
4 day suspension for DarkOz for partisan political speech.
Just checked YouTube and ran into this TYT short that Joe Biden isn't listening to anybody but Jill & Hunter Biden on whether he should remain in the race, lol. Maybe they are reconsidering some kind of pardon or commutation of Hunter's sentence immediately, just after Joe said he would do no such thing.
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/4jbsqAbCdPw
If Joe Biden resigns from the Presidency this week, and Kamala Harris becomes President, she would inherit none of the delegates Biden has already won. She would have to earn them herself at the Convention in August. It would be a free-for-all at the Convention, so Harris would not be guaranteed to be the nominee if she was already President.
Quote: SOOPOOI am always more interested in State specific polls.
Maybe I missed one or two, but these are 8 states that are often considered swing states.
Ohio. T + 9
Florida. T +9
Georgia. T + 6
Arizona. T +5
Nevada. T + 4
Michigan. T + 2
Pennsylvania. T +2
Wisconsin. T +1
It’s not July yet. So lots can change. But that’s a daunting task for Biden to turn around.
This was on ‘538’.
link to original post
Was that the same polling unit or just quoting polls out there? I always wondered if anyone actually polls all states the same way. Not many will as that would be time consuming and expensive.
I just checked the betting lines at betonline.com and they don't make any sense - see link
they have Trump at -175 and Biden at +350
that means you could bet on both sides and guarantee yourself a profit
bet $275 on Trump and $100 on Biden
if Trump wins you win $157 on the bet on him minus the $100 bet on Biden for a net gain of $57
if Biden wins you win $350 minus the $275 bet on Trump for a net gain of $75
hunh________________???
help me out here - am I missing something - hard to believe they would price those bets wrongly
Edit - the lines are probably correct because of all of the betting lines shown on the others - but it's quite surprising
https://sports.betonline.ag/sportsbook/futures-and-props/us-election/president
.
Quote: lilredrooster.
I just checked the betting lines at betonline.com and they don't make any sense - see link
they have Trump at -175 and Biden at +350
that means you could bet on both sides and guarantee yourself a profit
bet $275 on Trump and $100 on Biden
if Trump wins you win $157 on the bet on him minus the $100 bet on Biden for a net gain of $57
if Biden wins you win $350 minus the $275 bet on Trump for a net gain of $75
hunh________________???
help me out here - am I missing something - hard to believe they would price those bets wrongly
Edit - the lines are probably correct because of all of the betting lines shown on the others - but it's quite surprising
https://sports.betonline.ag/sportsbook/futures-and-props/us-election/president
.
link to original post
You’re risking Biden being the ultimate Dem candidate.
Quote: unJonQuote: lilredrooster.
I just checked the betting lines at betonline.com and they don't make any sense - see link
they have Trump at -175 and Biden at +350
that means you could bet on both sides and guarantee yourself a profit
bet $275 on Trump and $100 on Biden
if Trump wins you win $157 on the bet on him minus the $100 bet on Biden for a net gain of $57
if Biden wins you win $350 minus the $275 bet on Trump for a net gain of $75
hunh________________???
help me out here - am I missing something - hard to believe they would price those bets wrongly
Edit - the lines are probably correct because of all of the betting lines shown on the others - but it's quite surprising
https://sports.betonline.ag/sportsbook/futures-and-props/us-election/president
.
link to original post
You’re risking Biden being the ultimate Dem candidate.
link to original post
If that is a risk it seems it is seriously out of price. I have to wonder if these lines are not being set by non Americans who are thinking the odds of no Biden are higher than they are?
anybody who thinks these betting lines don't indicate a great likelihood of loss for the Dems is kidding themselves
the betting public doesn't often make big mistakes when big money is bet - the odds reflect how the public has bet - the lines have been adjusted accordingly
it is very likely that the odds shown reflect the true probabilities at this time
that doesn't mean that Biden couldn't win - it just mean that at this moment it is very unlikely -
.
Quote: lilredrooster.
anybody who thinks these betting lines don't indicate a great likelihood of loss for the Dems is kidding themselves
the betting public doesn't often make big mistakes when big money is bet - the odds reflect how the public has bet - the lines have been adjusted accordingly
it is very likely that the odds shown reflect the true probabilities at this time
that doesn't mean that Biden couldn't win - it just mean that at this moment it is very unlikely -
link to original post
If I was someone who bets on politics (I'm not) I would absolutely be betting money on Trump right now. Not because I'm a Trump supporter or because I want him to win, but rather because I don't want him to win. So, even if he does win, my preferred candidate lost, but hey, at least I made some money off of it.
My point is, I wonder how much people like me are affecting the betting odds. Are people betting on Trump/Biden because they don't want that candidate to win, and winning some money is at least a "consolation prize?"
Quote: TigerWuQuote: lilredrooster.
anybody who thinks these betting lines don't indicate a great likelihood of loss for the Dems is kidding themselves
the betting public doesn't often make big mistakes when big money is bet - the odds reflect how the public has bet - the lines have been adjusted accordingly
it is very likely that the odds shown reflect the true probabilities at this time
that doesn't mean that Biden couldn't win - it just mean that at this moment it is very unlikely -
link to original post
If I was someone who bets on politics (I'm not) I would absolutely be betting money on Trump right now. Not because I'm a Trump supporter or because I want him to win, but rather because I don't want him to win. So, even if he does win, my preferred candidate lost, but hey, at least I made some money off of it.
My point is, I wonder how much people like me are affecting the betting odds. Are people betting on Trump/Biden because they don't want that candidate to win, and winning some money is at least a "consolation prize?"
link to original post
If they’re actually betting on it then they’re not really people like you though? I doubt someone with the consolation mindset is really ever betting “serious” money, so it would have to be an absolute mass amount of people to really effect it.
Just an incredible amount of just wild speculation for this point in the cycle. Maybe it’s settled now but as of 6/28 betfair exchange had Trump 56.8, Non Biden dem candidate 20.1, Biden 18.8%. That non Biden 20% was split between a half dozen different names.
Is a real possibility that many of these books got hit with enough Trump money on the immediate hours during/after the debate that they’ve intentionally over shaded the line towards Trump at this point in order to pull in more action against him to balance their books?
Quote: lilredroosterthat doesn't mean that Biden couldn't win - it just mean that at this moment it is very unlikely -
.
link to original post
It is impossible for Biden to win “at this moment,” mainly because it is July 1st and no one is voting.
the betting lines are also affected by what has been proven in horse racing - a favorite/longshot bias - that is the tendency of the betting public to bet more on longshots than they should and less on faves than they should
in horse racing if you bet on every longshot at 20/1 or greater you would lose at least double the takeout in the long run, and at 40/1 or higher at least triple
Michelle Obama - +1200_____________get outa here - a ridiculous line - they're taking in sucker money
Gretchen Whitmer - + 1800__________get serious - sucker money for sure
Gavin Newsom +700 - a whole lotta sucker money on that dude
.
Quote: TigerWuQuote: lilredrooster.
anybody who thinks these betting lines don't indicate a great likelihood of loss for the Dems is kidding themselves
the betting public doesn't often make big mistakes when big money is bet - the odds reflect how the public has bet - the lines have been adjusted accordingly
it is very likely that the odds shown reflect the true probabilities at this time
that doesn't mean that Biden couldn't win - it just mean that at this moment it is very unlikely -
link to original post
If I was someone who bets on politics (I'm not) I would absolutely be betting money on Trump right now. Not because I'm a Trump supporter or because I want him to win, but rather because I don't want him to win. So, even if he does win, my preferred candidate lost, but hey, at least I made some money off of it.
My point is, I wonder how much people like me are affecting the betting odds. Are people betting on Trump/Biden because they don't want that candidate to win, and winning some money is at least a "consolation prize?"
link to original post
You sound like me in SB xxx. That interception sealed the loss but then I realized my block hit for $200.
Quote: lilredrooster.
the betting lines are also affected by what has been proven in horse racing - a favorite/longshot bias - that is the tendency of the betting public to bet more on longshots than they should and less on faves than they should
in horse racing if you bet on every longshot at 20/1 or greater you would lose at least double the takeout in the long run, and at 40/1 or higher at least triple
Michelle Obama - +1200_____________get outa here - a ridiculous line - they're taking in sucker money
Gretchen Whitmer - + 1800__________get serious - sucker money for sure
Gavin Newsom +700 - a whole lotta sucker money on that dude
.
link to original post
Yeah, I'm reading that replacement deadlines for Wisconsin and Nevada (both necessary for a potential blue team victory) have passed. There are, however, exceptions for death in Wisconsin, and death or insanity in Nevada.
Both are blue states so they could quickly change their laws, but they'd have to do it under the intense glare of the national spotlight and the optics of overturning an election result would be problematic to say the least. The Biden people would fight them the entire way, while the red team would stand on the sidelines, handing out torches and pitchforks to whichever blue factions needs them.
Meanwhile, the deadlines for a candidate to appear on the ballot in other states (notably Georgia) are approaching.
