and the crowd is silenced....
Quote: AxelWolfLets pretend someone can roll anything they want because of skill. Are you just saying that the edge belongs to just the player? If so how would you describe what happens to the casinos edge?
It's always a mathematical house edge as long as it remains random.
Is your question directed at me?
I am saying the house edge in craps is a constant, and what ability or skill or lack of ability or skill has no impact on the math that determines the edge in craps.
The edge in craps is simply a function of the 36 possible combinations of the dice -- and that's all the edge has ever been.
Now, if you are asking if a player who can "control" the dice has an edge over the game, then yes, the player has an edge over the game and the casino. But that player's PERSONAL EDGE does not change the house edge or the odds or the math of the game.
For example: if a player somehow can control the dice so that he can throw ten hard-6s in a row, that player will have a personal edge or advantage over the casino. BUT each time the player throws the dice the casino still has an edge over the player.
I am afraid that the defined mathematical edge that the casino has over players in the game of craps is being confused with what would happen if a player somehow could roll some number more than another number. These are "apples" and "oranges."
I again refer you to the Wizard's chart of odds for the game of craps: NO WHERE does he indicate the house edge changes because of any skill or lack of skill of the shooter. And that is strictly because the edge in craps is defined by the combinations of the 36 faces on the two dice.
That statement can't be true under the circumstances we are talking about. If only one guy plays at a craps table forever who can control the dice every time theQuote: AlanMendelson
For example: if a player somehow can control the dice so that he can throw ten hard-6s in a row, that player will have a personal edge or advantage over the casino. BUT each time the player throws the dice the casino still has an edge over the player.
.
casino wouldn't have an edge over the player. The mathematical odds of the game (assuming its a random roller or there's no rolling at all) wont change.
You used a VP scenario 1 out of 47 for a 1CD . However if the machine if gaffed and it comes up 10x more often than it should the casino doesn't have an edge and its no longer 1 in 47.
Quote: AxelWolfThat statement can't be true under the circumstances we are talking about. If only one guy plays at a craps table forever who can control the dice every time the
casino wouldn't have an edge over the player. The mathematical odds of the game (assuming its a random roller or there's no rolling at all) wont change.
You used a VP scenario 1 out of 47 for a 1CD . However if the machine if gaffed and it comes up 10x more often than it should the casino doesn't have an edge and its no longer 1 in 47.
WHAT ARE YOU TALKING ABOUT?
You asked a hypothetical question and I gave you an answer.
We're not talking about gaffed video poker machines.
We are talking about how the edge is calculated at the game of craps.
Again, WHAT ARE YOU TALKING ABOUT?
This discussion is ridiculous because you want to make up your own rules, conditions, stories to confuse and not answer a question.
So I am going to ask the WIZARD:
Wizard, does the house edge in the game of craps change based on the ability or lack of ability of a player to hit or not hit certain numbers when throwing dice? Please answer and end this.
I think you brought VP into this. It shouldn't have been used in the first place. Since it was, I think DC, if possible, or sliding is the same as a gaffed VP machine except the player is the one gaffing the dice.Quote: AlanMendelsonWHAT ARE YOU TALKING ABOUT?
You asked a hypothetical question and I gave you an answer.
We're not talking about gaffed video poker machines.
We are talking about how the edge is calculated at the game of craps.
Again, WHAT ARE YOU TALKING ABOUT?
This discussion is ridiculous because you want to make up your own rules, conditions, stories to confuse and not answer a question.
So I am going to ask the WIZARD:
Wizard, does the house edge in the game of craps change based on the ability or lack of ability of a player to hit or not hit certain numbers when throwing dice? Please answer and end this.
There's a difference in EDGE and odds. If there's a way to alter the outcome, it doesn't change the odds of the payout, but the edge one has, must change.
I'm confused why you said this " For example: if a player somehow can control the dice so that he can throw ten hard-6s in a row, that player will have a personal edge or advantage over the casino. BUT each time the player throws the dice the casino still has an edge over the player." The casino can't have an edge over a player if he can force the dice to land ten hard 6s in a row as long as hes betting that. If the player isn't betting that then it changes the Edge for the casino.
But anytime something is being altered the edge changes it could be positive or negative.
Quote: AlanMendelsonWHAT ARE YOU TALKING ABOUT?
You asked a hypothetical question and I gave you an answer.
We're not talking about gaffed video poker machines.
We are talking about how the edge is calculated at the game of craps.
Again, WHAT ARE YOU TALKING ABOUT?
This discussion is ridiculous because you want to make up your own rules, conditions, stories to confuse and not answer a question.
So I am going to ask the WIZARD:
Wizard, does the house edge in the game of craps change based on the ability or lack of ability of a player to hit or not hit certain numbers when throwing dice? Please answer and end this.
This is a pretty hilarious thread, although I'm just going to assume the above poster is drunk. The house edge is calculated on all possible outcomes weighted by probability, and the payout (or loss) on each. On a pair of regular dice, thrown by an average person, we know the chance of each face is 1/6. if the dice were gaffed, certain bets would have a player advantage, but the corresponding bet would have a sharply increased house edge. What Alan is saying is across the whole spectrum of bets the house edge would be unchanged. I'm not sure that's true, as certain numbers would be best exploited by higher vig wagers, but I don't know.
It's simple craps has a built in edge thats dictated by the payouts. Unless you have something extra/different added or you can cheat/angle shoot.You can't gain an edge.Quote: MoscaThe parties to this discussion have not agreed on the definition of terms. Hence the misunderstanding and subsequent argument.
Quote: MoscaThe parties to this discussion have not agreed on the definition of terms. Hence the misunderstanding and subsequent argument.
Quote: tongniI'm not sure that's true, as certain numbers would be best exploited by higher vig wagers, but I don't know.
You might successfully offset the house edge, itself, but you can never attain the full value yield of your efforts. Unless, you can find completely extrinsic variables to the payout and win odds.
To calculate probabilities requires no dice be present. The probability [odds] will never change. Only the semantics.
Quote: petroglyphThe probability [odds] will never change. Only the semantics.
Not even at the speed of light?
Quote: KerkebetQuote: petroglyphThe probability [odds] will never change. Only the semantics.
Not even at the speed of light?
If you leave the crap table at the speed of light, the top two numbers will never change?
edit; however as you leave you will still be able to hear the dealer asking for a tip
Quote: AlanMendelson
For example: if a player somehow can control the dice so that he can throw ten hard-6s in a row, that player will have a personal edge or advantage over the casino. BUT each time the player throws the dice the casino still has an edge over the player.
"Player has the edge but house has the edge too." You do seem drunk.
If I can slide a die, one's face is 6 up and will not tumble, the other die is tossed randomly, and I bet in the field, does the house edge change? According to the Wizard, "The house edge is defined as the ratio of the average loss to the initial bet", from your link.
So let's see, a 1 or 2 would cause a loss, a 3,4, or 5 would win, and a 6 would win 3x. Using a $100 wager, that gives me an average loss of -$66.66. Now gotta find a ratio from average loss to initial bet, -$66.66/$100 = -66.6% or -0.666. So the HE, according to Wizard's definition, is -66.6%...giving the player a 66.6% edge over the house.
Quote: AlanMendelson...if a player somehow can control the dice so that he can throw ten hard-6s in a row, that player will have a personal edge or advantage over the casino. BUT each time the player throws the dice the casino still has an edge over the player.
Both cannot have a definite "edge" against the other at the same time, on the same roll.
Given that a random game is required by the casino (they allow dice controllers to set the dice because the casinos believe that dice setting is an ineffective affectation), were a player IN FACT able to control dem bones as you suggest, then the casino would view it as cheating, as it would remove the required edge which the house should have against the player on every roll.
Quote: AxelWolfIt's simple craps has a built in edge thats dictated by the payouts. Unless you have something extra/different added or you can cheat/angle shoot.You can't gain an edge.
Oh, I understand completely. The fact that the player gains an edge relative to the house doesn't negate the house edge, which is a function of the odds and the payouts.
The disagreement stems from one side negating one with the other, and one side saying both apply at the same time.
Quote: AlanMendelsonLet's see if a simple question will lead to a simple answer. According to the Wizard of Odds the House Edge on the passline flat bet is 1.41% Question: can someone who is an accomplished shooter (dice influencer or controller)change that House Edge? Or will the House Edge on the passline bet always be 1.41-percent?
Quote: WOO_HouseEdgeThe house edge is defined as the ratio of the average loss to the initial bet.
Let's say someone can control the dice with 100% accuracy and can throw whatever number he wants. For example, if he wanted to throw a 4-3, he will throw a 4-3. Dice control, obviously, isn't THAT strong, but let's just assume someone could do this.
You ask, if someone can control the dice, would the pass line HE still be 1.41%? Let's look at the definition, according to the Wizard on WOO: Ratio of average loss to initial bet.
In the instance where someone had 100% accuracy of the dice (and he wanted to roll 7's on the come out roll), then with a $100 wager, the average loss would be -$100 (in other words, +$100 win).
HE = Avg_Loss / Initial Wager
HE = -$100 / $100
HE = -1
HE = -100%
-100% != 1.41%
If a passline shooter can control the dice with perfect accuracy, he changes the house edge on the passline from 1.41% to -100%.
Granted, no one can control the dice with perfect accuracy. I personally don't think anyone can influence the dice to be anything other than random (except for dice sliding or extremely short rolls, ie: letting them roll off of your hand without actually tossing them).
That being said, if a player could control/influence the dice, the pass line would no longer have a House Edge of 1.41%.*
* Well, theoretically, he could control the dice in a fashion to keep the HE on the pass-line to still be 1.41%, but the probabilities would be different. But, that's a far stretch.
For example, he could throw the dice so that twelve (6,6) is the result of the throw 2/36, and ace-deuce (1,2) is the result of the throw 1/36 times....leaving all the rest of the probabilities the same (1/6 chance of a 7, 5/36 chance of a 6....etc.).
Or hell, he could throw them in a way that 3-3 is rolled 5/36 of the times, and 1-5, 2-4 is never rolled.....6-3 is rolled 4/36 of the time and 5-4 is never rolled....5-5 is rolled 3/36 of the time and 6-4 is never rolled....etc.
Quote: RS
That being said, if a player could control/influence the dice, the pass line would no longer have a House Edge of 1.41%.*
Yes,..that would be true if the so-called DI could be at 100% and never throw a seven! Here is the problem with what everybody is saying. That will never happen so any theory that you have about the house edge changing goes right out the window.
So-called DI's have no way of telling when the next seven will be coming, unlike card counting, where you know that the count is now in your favor and you can put out those larger bets. A so-called DI could keep getting killed if those sevens kept coming. The house edge does not change when you are playing craps and you are a so-called DI.
Thinking that you have an edge on the game of craps is a death sentence. You need more then a theory to win at craps and no one will ever shoot at 100%. All you have to do is watch all of the slow-motion videos that we now have of the dice hitting the tables and you can see why that will never happen!
When anybody is talking about the so-called DI's, they throw all of their common sense right out of the window. When the on-axis craps schools come up with a few videos that show their dice staying on axis all of the time, then you can put your theory to work, until then forget about it!
A 'deck influencer' who could draw more than the normal distrubition of high cards from the deck would have an advantage. Of course no one can do this in real life. But if they could, they would have an advantage. They still wouldn't know if the next card was a 10, or if they would win the next hand.
Now you are a ball influencer in roulette. Through telekenisis, you can reduce the frequency of green coming up. On even money bets, you have reduced the house edge. Your telekenisis also favors red over black. You now have an advantage, if you bet on red. You won't get red every time, and might even still get a few greens. You don't know what will happen next.
These things are, of course, impossible, but
Here is the important part
If it was possible, it would change the player edge in the game.
Next important part
The house edge is the opposite of the aggregated player edges.
Quote: Dalex64You are mixing up what you can do in real life vs what would happen mathematically. The argument I keep seeing is "it is impossible to change the distribution of the dice, therefore changing the distribution of the dice does not change the house edge." This statement is logically false.
Not what I was thinking. Unless someone tells me I am wrong I thought the house edge in craps was nothing more than the number of expected times various combinations show using two fair dice. And if someone influenced dice for better or worse it would be described as variance. In other words the house edge was fixed while player results varied
I am still hoping The Wizard will comment.
The House Edge is a mathematically precise term that makes the following assumptions:
It is calculated using a fair distribution of all possible results in an entire cycle of the mechanism, whether cards, dice, roulette wheel, whatever. Each craps bet individually is based on a winning or losing result being 1 or more chances of 36 possible to the mechanism. Odds are paid at slightly less than their cycle rate of occurrence, with the exception of bets that are paid at exactly their cycle rate of occurrence (IE odds behind the PL). They take the same amount when you lose (all of it), but when you win, they pay you some amount less than they would owe you if you were playing them for true stakes.
Each possible result in the cycle is multiplied by its odds payout, including losses, with positive payouts going to the player, negative payouts to the house, for each bet that uses that subset of cards/dice/roulette spin. (Return)
All of those possible results are added up for a total Expected Value, one for each occurrence in the cycle. If the Expected Value is negative, it is a House Advantage, or Edge. If the Expected Value is positive, it is a Player Advantage.
No matter what manipulation an individual player makes with the mechanism, the House Edge of the game itself does not change.
However, if a player were to able to reliably control the mechanism and bet according to his pre-known result, the player (and only him, or with his confederates) could enjoy a Player Advantage over the game. That PA, as a percentage would be affected by how often it could be used without detection, how reliably it worked, how completely it worked (maybe you only see a hole card 1/2 the time; maybe you can tell value sometimes, but other times only paint/no paint) how long it could be used at any one game. The bet progression or amounts the player used while taking advantage of it would not affect the PA, but would affect the total amount of money won.
I think you folks have been talking past each other this entire conversation, with scrambled definitions. Perhaps this will help, perhaps not.
Quote: beachbumbabs
No matter what manipulation an individual player makes with the mechanism, the House Edge of the game itself does not change.
However, if a player were to able to reliably control the mechanism and bet according to his pre-known result, the player (and only him, or with his confederates) could enjoy a Player Advantage over the game.
Thank you.
Quote: AlanMendelsonUnless someone tells me I am wrong I thought the house edge in craps was nothing more than the number of expected times various combinations show using two fair dice. And if someone influenced dice for better or worse it would be described as variance. In other words the house edge was fixed while player results varied
Quote: Dalex64If there is only one player playing, and he is playing with an advantage, what is the house edge?
the house edge is the same house edge whether there were 12 players at the table. the house edge does not change. Geez.
I don't understand why the house bothers backing off card counters, then, if their edge never changes.
Edited to add: it is my assertion that player edge and house edge are equal and opposite, at all times.
Influencing the dice for better or worse results (from expectation) is not variance. The wins and losses that are different from EV is the variance. Influencing the dice (IF it could be done) would change your EV. Changing your EV by dice influencing is not variance.
http://www.mathsisfun.com/data/standard-deviation.html
So in the end you are both right depending on the viewpoint used.
(edit. took out a "in" that crept in somehow)
Quote: Dalex64I don't understand why the house bothers backing off card counters, then, if their edge never changes.
Question:
Can you count cards if BJ were played with a single deck and a new shuffle after each hand/round is played? Of course not. And in the case of a single deck with a reshuffle after each hand/round played the house edge is fixed.
Next question:
If the deck is not reshuffled after each hand/round, or if the multi decks are not reshuffled after each hand/round, and the played cards are removed from the game, does the distribution of the remaining cards in the deck/shoe change? Of course it does. Can you count cards if certain cards are removed from play for the next hand/round? Of course you can.
Another question:
If 6-6 (box cars) is thrown in the game of craps, are the 6s removed from the dice for the next throw?
If 1-1 (snake eyes) is thrown in the game of craps, are the 1s removed from the dice for the next throw?
Does it make sense to you that in blackjack the odds or edge facing the player can change with each subsequent hand when the cards are not automatically reshuffled, but in craps the odds or edge facing the player never changes?
Quote: Dalex64There is your misunderstanding right there. The claim of DI is that the odds of the face showing on the die has changed and is not equal to the other faces.
Alan seems to think that a DI is changing the occurrence of particular numbers due to "variance", and not due to changing the probability of the number being rolled.
If a DI is capable of changing the occurrence of, say a 6, so that it rolls just as many times as the 7, then the probability of it has changed from 5/11 to 1/2, which thus affects the house edge.
Quote: AlanMendelsonQuestion:
Can you count cards if BJ were played with a single deck and a new shuffle after each hand/round is played? Of course not. And in the case of a single deck with a reshuffle after each hand/round played the house edge is fixed.
Next question:
If the deck is not reshuffled after each hand/round, or if the multi decks are not reshuffled after each hand/round, and the played cards are removed from the game, does the distribution of the remaining cards in the deck/shoe change? Of course it does. Can you count cards if certain cards are removed from play for the next hand/round? Of course you can.
Another question:
If 6-6 (box cars) is thrown in the game of craps, are the 6s removed from the dice for the next throw?
If 1-1 (snake eyes) is thrown in the game of craps, are the 1s removed from the dice for the next throw?
Does it make sense to you that in blackjack the odds or edge facing the player can change with each subsequent hand when the cards are not automatically reshuffled, but in craps the odds or edge facing the player never changes?
I like your questions. Some questions you forgot to ask:
What happens to the edge if a dice influencer/controller can alter the probabilities of the faces? What if someone could throw the dice in a manner so that neither die can land on 1? Does the edge change?
If you answer the question incorrectly, then you need to visit a math class or start learning about math. Once you learn how math, probabilities, and how to calculate edges/advantages, then you'll be able to answer the question correctly.
If you answer the question correctly, then that shows you are wrong when you say a dice controller can change the house edge.
NOTE: I don't believe in dice influence nor dice control. This is all purely theoretical. Although, I do find it comical how people who believe in such foolishness (as well as other voodoo) really have no idea how math/probabilities/distributions/edges/etc. all work together.
Quote: RSI like your questions. Some questions you forgot to ask:
What happens to the edge if a dice influencer/controller can alter the probabilities of the faces? What if someone could throw the dice in a manner so that neither die can land on 1? Does the edge change?
If you answer the question incorrectly, then you need to visit a math class or start learning about math. Once you learn how math, probabilities, and how to calculate edges/advantages, then you'll be able to answer the question correctly.
If you answer the question correctly, then that shows you are wrong when you say a dice controller can change the house edge.
NOTE: I don't believe in dice influence nor dice control. This is all purely theoretical. Although, I do find it comical how people who believe in such foolishness (as well as other voodoo) really have no idea how math/probabilities/distributions/edges/etc. all work together.
Address this question please to beachbumbabs... who has already answered it. Or, read what she wrote.
Quote: wudgedAlan seems to think that a DI is changing the occurrence of particular numbers due to "variance", and not due to changing the probability of the number being rolled.
If a DI is capable of changing the occurrence of, say a 6, so that it rolls just as many times as the 7, then the probability of it has changed from 5/11 to 1/2, which thus affects the house edge.
It no longer matters. He has chosen who he wants to believe. It is a matter of faith.
Quote: AlanMendelsonAddress this question please to beachbumbabs... who has already answered it. Or, read what she wrote.
She's wrong.
Quote: Dalex64She's wrong.
Wow, well this is interesting. Beachbumbabs is wrong?
Quote: AlanMendelsonWow, well this is interesting. Beachbumbabs is wrong?
Not exactly, although these two sentences directly contradict each other:
Quote: beachbumbabsNo matter what manipulation an individual player makes with the mechanism, the House Edge of the game itself does not change.
However, if a player were to able to reliably control the mechanism and bet according to his pre-known result, the player (and only him, or with his confederates) could enjoy a Player Advantage over the game.
The first statement is wrong, while the second is correct. She says no matter the manipulation of the mechanism, the edge does not change, however the mechanism may be manipulated to change the edge.
If the dice are in fact being manipulated, whether through sliding, DI, shaved faces, weights, magnets, voodoo, et al, the edge is changed for all bettors, including the house. Depending on the manipulation, it may skew the results in favor or for the worse for all bettors involved.
Quote: AlanMendelsonYou are confusing "edge" with "advantage." they are not interchangable.
You're confusing a coward's "losing intelligently" to look "cool" with the dignity of actually fighting for something worthwhile and losing graciously.
Understandable.
Quote: AlanMendelsonYou are confusing "edge" with "advantage." they are not interchangable.
An "advantage" is when the "edge" is negative for the house. They are not "interchangeable" but they are in direct correlation with one another.
Yeah. Isn't the very definition of advantage play the reduction or reversal of house edge?Quote: wudgedAn "advantage" is when the "edge" is negative for the house. They are not "interchangeable" but they are in direct correlation with one another.
Quote: DeMangoSome people just need to quit while they are behind. MoneyLA is notorious on various boards for this. Just roll us 18 yo's in a row.
I didn't roll the 18 yos in a row.
Again, I think you should be asking beachbumbabs. Why aren't you?
Quote: superrickI know what I would do if I rolled 18 yos in a row. I would never tell anybody about it. The same thing goes for seeing 18 yos in a row. Some things are better off let alone!
Why don't we change the subject?? That would make sense since I've been called drunk by several of you. And when beachbumbabs offers a very eloquent discussion about terminology everyone ignores it, but continues to dump on me.
At least that would fit the title.Quote: AlanMendelsonWhy don't we change the subject?? That would make sense since I've been called drunk by several of you. And when beachbumbabs offers a very eloquent discussion about terminology everyone ignores it, but continues to dump on me.
No disrespect to BBB, nor am I saying anyone is right or wrong, but just because BBB said something doesn't make it correct.
Quote: AxelWolfNo disrespect to BBB, nor am I saying anyone is right or wrong, but just because BBB said something doesn't make it correct.
Which is why I have been asking the Wizard himself to comment. If there is anyone who knows the definition of house edge it would be the Wizard. As I mentioned, what he has written before about the edge of various bets in craps does not include any mention, footnotes or variables based on whether or not a shooter rolls more or less of any number.
And that is the question -- and the only question: what is the house edge in craps and how is it determined and does the result of any shooter affect the "house edge"?
Certainly if the performance of a shooter or parade of shooters at a table affects the house edge, we should know about it. It should be so noted in all that is written about the house edge at craps. However -- I've never seen it, except in a discussion in this thread.
I must ask, have the participants in this thread uncovered a "new math" in the game of craps which until now has been unknown? Is there a variable house edge as it pertains to the bets at craps?
