"Advantage Player" and Craps
Poll
 | 35 votes (58.33%) | ||
| | 25 votes (41.66%) |
60 members have voted
Logically, one would think it should allow for a controlled throw, IF consistency as to grip, force, angle etc. mattered worth a damn.
It doesn't; at least nobody has proven that it does, and at the end of the day the lack of proof is the salient point.
Ahigh did not even come close to a controlled throw. While he worked very hard, you
watch his videos and in his casino play his dice would hit the table and bounce all over
the table.
If I learned one thing the very hard way over the past 8 years it is that standing at your
table hour after hour expecting to be able to control the dice, is miles away from standing
at your table 30 minutes a day to learn how to win at craps .
There is a lot in what Math says about understanding what you are doing to make money.
He is just looking at the wrong things, but he is at least smart enough to look.
dicesetter
That exact thought has been wondered by many others over the past four centuries:Quote: WizardofnothingWell what I meant was,,let's just say all tables are the same and all dice and other conditions the same- would a robot throwing dice exactly the same exact way:force:direction each time produce a statistical abnormality that is above any normal standard deviation?
Translated by John Arbuthnot in 1692 from "De Ratiociniis in Ludo Aleae", which in turn was translated from the original 1656 German work "Van Rekeningh in Spelen van Geluck" by Christiaan Huygens. "Of the Laws of Chance" was one of the earliest books on gaming math. Of course, probability theory itself arose out of the need to calculate the odds for certain wagers but that's a different story.Quote: Of the Laws of Chance, or, a method of Calculation of the Hazards of Game, Plainly demonstrated, And applied to Games as present most in UseIt is impossible for a Die, with such determin'd force and direction, not to fall on such determin'd side, only I don't know the force and direction which makes it fall on such determin'd side, and therefore I call it Chance, wich is nothing but the want of art...
My take on it is this: it wouldn't be a huge engineering effort (in the scheme of things) to build a dice throwing machine that had super-human precision. It doesn't have to be perfect precision, just super-human. If that super-human machine can't bias the throw of a fair pair of dice on a casino table, it's reasonable to conclude that no human can either. There are several different ways that a biased throw could work, but only a small number of them -- probably 10 or fewer. Rigorously testing all of them would, in my mind, put the question to bed. It's a test I've wanted to run for many years now but I don't have the time to devote to doing it properly. It'd make a great paper, though. Maybe someday.
For what it's worth, though, countermeasures against precision throwing are trivial to implement. If the rubber pyramids aren't enough, there are easy additions. For example, the Four Queens in downtown Las Vegas has slight ridges under the felt at each end of the table, almost like a flattened washboard. They're not tall enough to lead to cocked dice but they should be plenty to ruin the chances of sliding or any throw that relies on a perfectly flat table.
Hey, hey. Real control isn't about forcing it. Does one have to walk around for fifty years or so like a doddering old fool before it finally hits you over the head?Quote: TwoFeathersATLThe robot cannot exercise telekidices...
I beg your pardon. The condition didn't kick in until 10-15 years ago ;-)Quote: TheGrimReaper13Hey, hey. Real control isn't about forcing it. Do you have to walk around for fifty years or so like a doddering old fool before it finally hits you over the head?
Oh!Quote: TheGrimReaper13Sorry about that, I was changing 'you' to 'one' as you responded. You...
Now I'm a bugger, and a nimble one at that?
You like livin' on the edge, dontcha ;-?
<edit> < and note to the greenies> Pls, Pls, Pls ; I officially request that anything that anyone says about me cannot ever, not ever, be considered an insult. I have written that down, had it notorized, and sent via the postal service to the forum mgt. If you don't get it, don't blame me ;-)
Read that a couple times, change the spacing.
Don't do this with a mouth full of liquid.
I am not responsible for your keyboard.
I claim immunity ;-)
I recall reading several years ago that some casinos were changing the surface under the felt, using materials with differing "bounce" characteristics; it was described (I believe by Heavy) as a "Frankenstein" surface.
I wonder if such a thing is fairly common and verified?
That would imply that someone worried about Dice Influencing would it not? Cats chasing their tails is fun to watch ;-)Quote: MrVOn the subject of casino countermeasures to dice setting:
I recall reading several years ago that some casinos were changing the surface under the felt, using materials with differing "bounce" characteristics; it was described (I believe by Heavy) as a "Frankenstein" surface.
I wonder if such a thing is fairly common and verified?
Quote: TwoFeathersATL...Cats chasing their tails is fun to watch ;-)
More fun watching them chase lasers.
https://youtu.be/qot5_7NFUtA
Quote: WizardofnothingHere is a dumb question ...
Math.....
If someone created a machine that replicated the same throw every single time / if dice influencing is true that that robot should roll the exact same roll every time - or at least a statistical abnormality of times . Or am I missing something ?
We've done that thread to death. It's an engineering impossibility. Alan M would say "But we can land a spaceship on a moving spinning comet, so it's just a matter of investing time, money and expertise on the design."
Then we all counter with " We didn't just release that spaceship from our grip and wave it goodbye, we steered it every metre of the way."
Can't be done. Won't be done. And of course, if it could be done, even badly, the casinos would not take wagers on it.
I am ashamed. I have to admit I have tortured our cats with lazer pointers.Quote: IbeatyouracesMore fun watching them chase lasers.
https://youtu.be/qot5_7NFUtA
Used them on the balcony at the beach as well. People behave like cats sometimes ;-)
Once security knocks on the door, time to knock it off, time to re-charge the batteries ;-)
It's possible that someone could build a throwing machine which never misses by only chance. Call it the "18 yo's machine". And that someone will, eventually, improve upon this. Certainly, even something with zero chance could happen.Quote: OnceDearWe've done that thread to death. It's an engineering impossibility. Alan M would say "But we can land a spaceship on a moving spinning comet, so it's just a matter of investing time, money and expertise on the design."
Then we all counter with " We didn't just release that spaceship from our grip and wave it goodbye, we steered it every metre of the way."
Can't be done. Won't be done. And of course, if it could be done, even badly, the casinos would not take wagers on it.
I call rounding errors, you go sit quietly in a corner now.
Quote: TheGrimReaper13It's possible that someone could build a throwing machine which never misses by only chance. Call it the "18 yo's machine". And that someone will, eventually, improve upon this. Certainly, even something with zero chance could happen.
Come's down to the meaning of possible.
Just like some would insist that seeing 18 yos in a row is impossible, or that there's 'zero chance' that Alan saw it.
But it doesn't need to be anywhere close to perfect, just super-human. We build machines with super-human accuracy all the time, and that's all you'd need to disprove the hypothesis that a human could be successful.Quote: OnceDearWe've done that thread to death. It's an engineering impossibility.
Quote: MathExtremistBut it doesn't need to be anywhere close to perfect, just super-human. We build machines with super-human accuracy all the time, and that's all you'd need to disprove the hypothesis that a human could be successful.
Agreed,
And still, I don't recall us seeing it done.
Not even close.
You're right about that. It's on my bucket list but I have a lot of other things to do first. I fully expect that by the time I get around to it, someone else will have beaten me to the punch.Quote: OnceDearAgreed,
And still, I don't recall us seeing it done.
Not even close.
Quote: TwoFeathersATL"Zero chance" ?
I call rounding errors, you go sit quietly in a corner now.
Quote:* Note that when you're dealing with an infinite number of possible events, an event that could conceivably happen might have probability zero. Consider the example of picking a random number between 1 and 10 - what is the probability that you'll pick 5.0724? It's zero, but it could happen.
http://mathforum.org/dr.math/faq/faq.prob.intro.html
Anyway, I think that what tends to happen with the "more successful" AP gamblers is they overstate what seems, to them, impossible. So much structured talk about "ploppies" to re-inforce the old self-image in an oddball venture? Putting doctors and AP's on the same page.
Makes me think of a conversation which God may have had with himself, and the Devil, regarding creating people.Quote: ernestmiddleInstead of an arm, why not some sort of elevated slide, with a gate and the top, designed to end an inch ot two above the felt. Controlled velocity, landing on axis, etc.
The universe lets go of things every moment, long enough to shuffle up. It never makes a mortal mistake, hasn't stopped yet.
I believe that's what they used in the Kapitaniak paper:Quote: ernestmiddleInstead of an arm, why not some sort of elevated slide, with a gate and the top, designed to end an inch ot two above the felt. Controlled velocity, landing on axis, etc.
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/234029725_The_three-dimensional_dynamics_of_the_die_throw
Once a reliable combination of bets is found, it's usually followed up with negative progressive betting. Once a relatively small profit is made, the advantage player leaves the table.
One example would be betting 10 on the field, and 5 on the any7. For that next roll, you'd have a 22:14 advantage over the casino. If a 5, 6 or 8 comes out, you lose and you up your bets in a fashion to recover your losses.
The Martingale system or whatever variation that is added is all but useless in a negative expectation game, but this has been modified into a game where there are more winning combinations than losing combinations, so chasing losses isn't actually all too absurd.
Combining place bets is another form of advantage gambling. Placing both the 4 and 10 for $5 apiece gives the player 6 combinations to win $9.00 and 6 combinations to lose $10.00.
Making multiple place bets until more than 6 dice combinations are covered then chasing the losses in a way that keeps the betting structure advantageous for the player.
Always walking away with a modest profit per hour.
Quote: Jimbo(And I apologize if this has been covered before.)
Oh sweet summer child.
Quote: MrChukklezAlways walking away with a modest profit per hour.
I bow to you, Oh Buddha of the bones.
Please, Oh Gambling Guru, enlighten me further.
Quote: MrChukklezAdvantage play in craps involves distributing bets amongst the different proposition bets and place bets in an attempt to change the game into something the player is expected to win.
Once a reliable combination of bets is found, it's usually followed up with negative progressive betting. Once a relatively small profit is made, the advantage player leaves the table.
One example would be betting 10 on the field, and 5 on the any7. For that next roll, you'd have a 22:14 advantage over the casino. If a 5, 6 or 8 comes out, you lose and you up your bets in a fashion to recover your losses.
The Martingale system or whatever variation that is added is all but useless in a negative expectation game, but this has been modified into a game where there are more winning combinations than losing combinations, so chasing losses isn't actually all too absurd.
Combining place bets is another form of advantage gambling. Placing both the 4 and 10 for $5 apiece gives the player 6 combinations to win $9.00 and 6 combinations to lose $10.00.
Making multiple place bets until more than 6 dice combinations are covered then chasing the losses in a way that keeps the betting structure advantageous for the player.
Always walking away with a modest profit per hour.
I used to not want to sell my magic secret of beating craps until I discovered a way to beat the stock market for thousands of dollars every day. Since I have discovered the secret to the stock market I will share the trick to beating craps. You simply have to buy the 4 and 10 while also betting the big 6 and big 8 and field. You also bet on boxcars snake eyes and Yo. That gives you 30 ways to win and the only possible way to lose is if someone rolls a 7. have fun getting rich, just pay it forward. If anyone wants to attend my stock seminar I only charge $875, but there is a two week waiting list so act now.
Quote: OzzyOsbourneI used to not want to sell my magic secret of beating craps until I discovered a way to beat the stock market for thousands of dollars every day. Since I have discovered the secret to the stock market I will share the trick to beating craps. You simply have to buy the 4 and 10 while also betting the big 6 and big 8 and field. You also bet on boxcars snake eyes and Yo. That gives you 30 ways to win and the only possible way to lose is if someone rolls a 7. have fun getting rich, just pay it forward. If anyone wants to attend my stock seminar I only charge $875, but there is a two week waiting list so act now.
Ah yes, the sacred "buy 4 and 10 and corner 6 and 8 with field and boxcars and snake eyes and yo" method. It has served me quite well. I have never lost usually with this method. Unfortunately for you, the cat has been out of the bag for quite some time.
Also, it should be noted that this system performs much better when you also make a LAY BET against the 4 AND 10. That way if the dreaded 7 is rolled, you get some of your money back. Do not worry about the shooter rolling a 5, as that is unlikely.
I also teach seminars. They are 1 on 1 personal training sessions where I coach you in live play. Any game, I will coach you. I don't have a set hourly price, so I won't gauge you. Instead, I ask for a mere 25% of session profits as payment, which is quite a good deal -- you can trust I will be working hard to make sure you win....I don't get paid if you lose!! In the extremely rare event of a loss, unfortunately, that will all land on you---but thats the cost of doing business.
I also teach dice setting classes at the casino of your choosing and will instruct you on ways to improve your toss. Same payment method as above (I only get paid if you win).
Don't be fooled by imitators. There is much money to be made. I don't play on my own money because I'm not greedy, and there is more to life than just making money. I want to help others win at the casino games of gambling, but require payment (I'm not crazy).
Quote: gamerfreakI'm very skeptical about any sort of real AP in craps, but Wong's book is next on my list, and from what I've heard he gives some sort of merit to the concept??? I feel like that should mean something....
I would proceed with extreme caution.
Quote: RSI don't have a set hourly price, so I won't gauge you. Instead, I ask for a mere 25% of session profits as payment, which is quite a good deal -
I'll do it for twenty tree fiddy percent
Now... mrchukklez's post almost had me ready to play ... very convincing but after watching all my friends do nothing but lose at dice in the long run I have to pass. Damn post was convincing though and now I see why all those hucksters make all that money teaching systems!!
Quote: MrChukklezOne example would be betting 10 on the field, and 5 on the any7. For that next roll, you'd have a 22:14 advantage over the casino...
Placing both the 4 and 10 for $5 apiece gives the player 6 combinations to win $9.00 and 6 combinations to lose $10.00...
Couldn't resist posting the highlights. That last scenario must strike fear into the hearts of the casinos.
We have to thank Mr. Chucklehead* for giving us his secrets, a lot of guys make you pay first, then you get the secrets.
*also couldn't resist my little joke, apologies
Please explain to me how all of those bets carry a house edge... Yet by adding all of those negative expectations together you think it turns it positive?Quote: MrChukklezAdvantage play in craps involves distributing bets amongst the different proposition bets and place bets in an attempt to change the game into something the player is expected to win.
Once a reliable combination of bets is found, it's usually followed up with negative progressive betting. Once a relatively small profit is made, the advantage player leaves the table.
One example would be betting 10 on the field, and 5 on the any7. For that next roll, you'd have a 22:14 advantage over the casino. If a 5, 6 or 8 comes out, you lose and you up your bets in a fashion to recover your losses.
The Martingale system or whatever variation that is added is all but useless in a negative expectation game, but this has been modified into a game where there are more winning combinations than losing combinations, so chasing losses isn't actually all too absurd.
Combining place bets is another form of advantage gambling. Placing both the 4 and 10 for $5 apiece gives the player 6 combinations to win $9.00 and 6 combinations to lose $10.00.
Making multiple place bets until more than 6 dice combinations are covered then chasing the losses in a way that keeps the betting structure advantageous for the player.
Always walking away with a modest profit per hour.
That's like saying -1 + -2 + -3 + -4 = + (anything).
In all seriousness, 100% not joking... Here is the only GUARANTEED AP play in craps NOT to lose money:
Buying someone else's don't bets after the come out for even money is +EV. It requires a willing non-AP, but if they really don't like 6s and 8s, I'm happy to oblige.Quote: gamerfreakUnless there is an inherent flaw in a bet/payout/promotion, I can't think of any other way the game could be played at an advantage other than dice control.
Quote: MathExtremistBuying someone else's don't bets after the come out for even money is +EV. It requires a willing non-AP, but if they really don't like 6s and 8s, I'm happy to oblige.
Where do you play MathExtmst?
Wherever I happen to be that also happens to have a dice table. I once followed someone around downtown LV buying his don'ts, if that's what you're asking.Quote: WatchMeWinWhere do you play MathExtmst?
Quote: MathExtremistWherever I happen to be that also happens to have a dice table. I once followed someone around downtown LV buying his don'ts, if that's what you're asking.
I just wanted to know where you normally play because I wld like to play craps with you sometime. I assume you live in vegas then?
Simple math time... On any given roll:Quote: MrChukklezAdvantage play in craps involves distributing bets amongst the different proposition bets and place bets in an attempt to change the game into something the player is expected to win.
Once a reliable combination of bets is found, it's usually followed up with negative progressive betting. Once a relatively small profit is made, the advantage player leaves the table.
One example would be betting 10 on the field, and 5 on the any7. For that next roll, you'd have a 22:14 advantage over the casino. If a 5, 6 or 8 comes out, you lose and you up your bets in a fashion to recover your losses.
The Martingale system or whatever variation that is added is all but useless in a negative expectation game, but this has been modified into a game where there are more winning combinations than losing combinations, so chasing losses isn't actually all too absurd.
Combining place bets is another form of advantage gambling. Placing both the 4 and 10 for $5 apiece gives the player 6 combinations to win $9.00 and 6 combinations to lose $10.00.
Making multiple place bets until more than 6 dice combinations are covered then chasing the losses in a way that keeps the betting structure advantageous for the player.
Always walking away with a modest profit per hour.
EV = (Field single pay - any 7 loss) + (Field double pay - any 7 loss) + (Any 7 pay - field loss) - (5, 6, 8 lose)
EV = (14/36)(10-5) + (2/36)(20-5) + (6/36)(25-10) - (14/36)(-15)
EV = (14/36)(5) + (2/36)15 + (6/36)(15) - (14/36)(-15)
EV = 1.9444 + .8333 + 2.5 - 5.8333
EV = -.5556
If you double your bet:
EV(doubled bet) = 2(EV) = -1.1113
If you quadruple your bet:
EV(4x bet) = 4(EV) = -2.2225
....and so on... YOU LOSE MONEY EVERY SINGLE THROW and eventually when you get enough throws to start moving towards the long run you will GUARANTEED LOSE MONEY.
No, but I fly there frequently on business. Unfortunately, I've had a few trips recently where I was so busy I didn't even have time to shoot dice. Oh well.Quote: WatchMeWinI just wanted to know where you normally play because I wld like to play craps with you sometime. I assume you live in vegas then?
You don't have to schlep around town. I bet only 5X of the allowed 10X. And I've even found a couple of box people/floor supervisors who say they rate odds. But those ratings don't seem anywhere near what playing the slots reaps.Quote: MathExtremistWherever I happen to be that also happens to have a dice table. I once followed someone around downtown LV buying his don'ts, if that's what you're asking.
No, I'm not talking about odds. This guy was pulling his don't bets after the come out. I paid him face value and took over the bets, which we're conditionally +EV at that point.Quote: SanchoPanzaYou don't have to schlep around town. I bet only 5X of the allowed 10X. And I've even found a couple of box people/floor supervisors who say they rate odds. But those ratings don't seem anywhere near what playing the slots reaps.
Quote: MathExtremistNo, but I fly there frequently on business. Unfortunately, I've had a few trips recently where I was so busy I didn't even have time to shoot dice. Oh well.
Where do you live?
