Absolutely sickened

Ive now played 716.5 hours with 75% of those hours at 2x50-2x250 and im 25k under EV. And this is assuming a very conservative 60 rounds per hour when backcounting. I just dont understand what Im doing wrong or if im just plain unlucky or the state of PA is as corrupt as people say they are. From doing a bit of research, it looks like the PA gaming commission has a history of being corrupt. This leads me to believe me that being 25k under EV after a good sample size of over 700 hours that these casinos are cheating in some type of fashion, especially Harrahs in Philly. Either there are less 10s and aces than normal or it's being stacked with small cards, has to be one or the other. I dont play pitch games, so the dealers dealing seconds is not even a thought. I really dont know what else to conclude at this point. Yes this is another rant and need to get it off my chest. Im absolutely disgusted with my results. I expected A LOT more especially playing such great games.

If anyone is wondering, Vegas is cancelled until further notice. Bad variance has ruined it. Bankroll is at 45k and while i can move there and get a job, that's really not in my interest and it will be hard to get something anyway in such short notice, at least a decent paying job.

Zen,

Many thanx for the update. Not sure how to improve your BJ (as I don't play it). But, under the circumstances, I think you made the wise decision by not relocating at this time. Best wishes.

Quote: ZenKinG

Ive now played 716.5 hours with 75% of those hours at 2x50-2x250 and im 25k under EV. And this is assuming a very conservative 60 rounds per hour when backcounting. I just dont understand what Im doing wrong or if im just plain unlucky or the state of PA is as corrupt as people say they are. From doing a bit of research, it looks like the PA gaming commission has a history of being corrupt. This leads me to believe me that being 25k under EV after a good sample size of over 700 hours that these casinos are cheating in some type of fashion, especially Harrahs in Philly. Either there are less 10s and aces than normal or it's being stacked with small cards, has to be one or the other. I dont play pitch games, so the dealers dealing seconds is not even a thought. I really dont know what else to conclude at this point. Yes this is another rant and need to get it off my chest. Im absolutely disgusted with my results. I expected A LOT more especially playing such great games.

If anyone is wondering, Vegas is cancelled until further notice. Bad variance has ruined it. Bankroll is at 45k and while i can move there and get a job, that's really not in my interest and it will be hard to get something anyway in such short notice, at least a decent paying job.

I have no idea why you are not winning like you expect but I can Guarantee you, the casino is not cheating. Perhaps instead of researching if the PA GC is fixing games, you should look at your game. See if you are sure you are counting correct and not reaching at times, trying to get big plays down. Just a suggestion, your money, your game.

ZK... if you're willing to move to be a counter, you should be willing to pay $X for another established professional to check you out and evaluate your game. BJA have their "advanced boot camps" which I would think would be a perfect fit for you... Trip to vegas, numerous pro's checking over your game, etc, etc.

Quote: Romes

ZK... if you're willing to move to be a counter, you should be willing to pay $X for another established professional to check you out and evaluate your game. BJA have their "advanced boot camps" which I would think would be a perfect fit for you... Trip to vegas, numerous pro's checking over your game, etc, etc.

Thanks, but i test myself enough on verite to know im playing perfectly. Yes it's not the same as being in a casino, but the casino never has been able to rattle me since day 1. I always keep my composure, never get distracted, dont drink, etc.

The point of my rant threads are to hopefully get people who have struggled as well over a huge amount of hours as well and under performed like i have. If I can get similar stories, it would put me in a much better place as i kno im not the only one experiencing terrible fortune after so many hours. Honestly, i guess it could be worse because technically i could be the .003% and still be down according to CVCX, but if i was in that percentage, i probably should just retire now.

Playing over 700 hours and only having 23.5k to show for it when my EV is a conservative 50k, it hurts quite a bit. Im close to 1 SD down. As much as this thread sounds like im searching for pity, im not. Just wondering if others have experienced underperforming over such a long stretch of time/hours.

I tried. Click HERE if you want proof.


ZCore13

Quote: Boz

I have no idea why you are not winning like you expect but I can Guarantee you, the casino is not cheating. Perhaps instead of researching if the PA GC is fixing games, you should look at your game. See if you are sure you are counting correct and not reaching at times, trying to get big plays down. Just a suggestion, your money, your game.

Well, how does that saying go? When you rule out everything as the reason, the most unlikely scenario as unlikely as it is has to be the case. The unlikely scenario in this case is the state of PA being corrupt rigging the games. If it's not a statewide thing, it's several casinos in the commissions pocket. Harrahs and Sands seems to fit that criteria. A little bit of research already tells me the Pennsylvania Gaming Commission has history of being corrupt.

There's also a reason why Sands is 2nd in the country in casino revenue only behind las vegas. Coincidence? I think not. Oh by the way Harrahs has a nice big carpet and remodeling they've done recently, i cant help but feel i funded that. Even with casinos cheating me im still up close to 25k, unbelievable really.

Quote: ZenKinG

Thanks, but i test myself enough on verite to know im playing perfectly. Yes it's not the same as being in a casino, but the casino never has been able to rattle me since day 1. I always keep my composure, never get distracted, dont drink, etc.

The point of my rant threads are to hopefully get people who have struggled as well over a huge amount of hours as well and under performed like i have. If I can get similar stories, it would put me in a much better place. Playing over 700 hours and only having 23.5k to show for it when my EV is a conservative 50k, it hurts quite a bit. Im close to 1 SD down.

If you have a 45K BR, and you think you are being cheated(why you keep going back is beyond me), I dont know why you don't take a vacation or something like that, and test out your skills in LV?

Quote: ZenKinG

Thanks, but i test myself enough on verite to know im playing perfectly. Yes it's not the same as being in a casino, but the casino never has been able to rattle me since day 1. I always keep my composure, never get distracted, dont drink, etc.

The point of my rant threads are to hopefully get people who have struggled as well over a huge amount of hours as well and under performed like i have. If I can get similar stories, it would put me in a much better place as i kno im not the only one experiencing terrible fortune after so many hours. Honestly, i guess it could be worse because technically i could be the .003% and still be down according to CVCX, but if i was in that percentage, i probably should just retire now.

Playing over 700 hours and only having 23.5k to show for it when my EV is a conservative 50k, it hurts quite a bit. Im close to 1 SD down. As much as this thread sounds like im searching for pity, im not. Just wondering if others have experienced underperforming over such a long stretch of time/hours.

You answered your own question. You're 1 standard deviation below EV? The chance of that happening is 34% I believe.

You make it seem like you're the unluckiest person in the world or you're in the 0.003% or whatever......then say you're down about 1 SD?

DoesNotCompute.jpg

Quote: ZenKinG

Well, how does that saying go? When you rule out everything as the reason, the most unlikely scenario as unlikely as it is has to be the case. The unlikely scenario in this case is the state of PA being corrupt rigging the games. If it's not a statewide thing, it's several casinos in the commissions pocket. Harrahs and Sands seems to fit that criteria. A little bit of research already tells me the Pennsylvania Gaming Commission has history of being corrupt.

There's also a reason why Sands is 2nd in the country in casino revenue only behind las vegas. Coincidence? I think not. Oh by the way Harrahs has a nice big carpet and remodeling they've done recently, i cant help but feel i funded that. Even with casinos cheating me im still up close to 25k, unbelievable really.

Please stop claiming this bs that they are cheating.
So why are so many others winning at the shops you mention? You think they only target you and let everyone else win?
Romes gave you a good suggestion, but No, you are so sure that you're playing almost perfect.
People make mistakes.why not have someone verify your play in a casino environment.
Or is this just another troll thread .

Quote: crazydazy

You answered your own question. You're 1 standard deviation below EV? The chance of that happening is 34% I believe.

Probability of being 1 SD or more outside the mean is 32%. Probability of being down more than 1 SD is 16%. Op's results are hardly out of the ordinary. Ridiculous that he would accuse people of cheating without sufficient evidence. The accusation is very insulting towards hard working owners and employees.

I think I was down 3 SDs on a blackjack play once

It was quite a weird experience

Quote: Hunterhill

Please stop claiming this bs that they are cheating.
So why are so many others winning at the shops you mention? You think they only target you and let everyone else win?
Romes gave you a good suggestion, but No, you are so sure that you're playing almost perfect.
People make mistakes.why not have someone verify your play in a casino environment.
Or is this just another troll thread .

Listen, as much as you think i troll, i dont. I may sound like it, but im not some 10 yr old kid trolling blackjack forums or being paid to troll in any way. Im just completely frustrated that's all and i know people may find it annoying, i need to let it out some way and by ranting on the forums gives me a bit of a breather just to get it off my chest. Anyone that plays a game with a 1-1.5% edge with the amount of hours i put in should be able to understand where im coming from.

I got no one to check me out anyway, you guys make it seem like it's easy finding an AP that lives next to you. You make it seem like there's AP's right when you step outside across the street. You mention 'others' winning where i play, but that cant be proven over the internet and anyone can say what they want.

So far at Sands I've put in 201 hours to be exact and im up +559 there. At Harrahs i put in 108 hours with 1 deck cutoff S17, DAS, LS 6 deck games and im down -18,363 in the hole. Keep in mind ever since they switched from 8 decks to 6 decks i havent won ONE trip. Of those 108 hours, ive played maybe 60 hours at those 6 deck games and i dropped over 18k with those unbelievable rules and pen. LOL. Sands also has phenomenal rules S17,DAS,LS,RSA and i made $559. I was also in the hole at Sands at around -5k-10k on average for the whole 700 hours up until recently where i turned a good run and am now in the net positive there. Was actually up +4900 there until i dropped 4200 in two shoes today there and now im left with a measly 500 bucks in profit over 201 hours there.

So my results total after 716.5 hours overall is a +23,574. Yes, im winning but my EV is around 49k give or take, because i do play different games and different play styles as well as different bet sizes throughout these 716.5 hours due to bankroll fluctuation. But give or take i should be somewhere around 45k and im at 23k.

I knew this game was tough, but holy hell, this is the epitome of a grind. Now I know why blackjack is still offered nationwide and the world. It's just not easy. Really isnt. The thing that angers me is hearing about others have so much success. They make it seem so easy. I dont mind other people's success, but for example you have a guy 'smallcapgrowth' from the other forum who claims hes almost at a million. You got KJ who makes 6 figures a year or high 5 fiugres ever year. There's also others who ran up their bankroll so easily it seems. You got FLASH from the other forum who is a retired pro and made tons it seems playing blackjack. I just cant help but feel im as good as any of them, i play the best games, play optimal conditions, use a high level count(not that a higher level count means much but still).

Just very frustrated. Excuse my continous rants, but if i dont let it off my chest somewhere ill explode inside. I honestly would not have a problem losing if i had a huge bankroll and just played for fun, but growing a bankroll through counting cards has to be one of the most depressing things.

Quote: AxelWolf

If you have a 45K BR, and you think you are being cheated(why you keep going back is beyond me), I dont know why you don't take a vacation or something like that, and test out your skills in LV?

Because I want to have a good sized bankroll before heading out there. I want to have at least 55-60k in case i run into terrible variance and having rent/food expense/ and gas expense eating up my bankroll as well. Having around 55-60k lets me play for a decent hourly while also avoiding running into a bad streak and having to resize down. Last thing I want is running into a horrible streak, having to resize down and having to pay rent and other expenses. Apartments there in any decent area for a 1 bedroom are gonna be at least 800. There's really no studios i can find in any good area in vegas. The good area in vegas are all 1 bedroom and they start at 800+.

After doing the math i want to have at least bare minimum 50-55k. I also have jury duty coming up and that's been in the way of my moving out as i was really close to leave and was planning middle or end of this month since i was over the 50k threshold until i gave back 8k in 3 trips.

Quote: ZenKinG

Because I want to have a good sized bankroll before heading out there. I want to have at least 55-60k in case i run into terrible variance and having rent/food expense/ and gas expense eating up my bankroll as well. Having around 55-60k lets me play for a decent hourly while also avoiding running into a bad streak and having to resize down. Last thing I want is running into a horrible streak, having to resize down and having to pay rent and other expenses. Apartments there in any decent area for a 1 bedroom are gonna be at least 800. There's really no studios i can find in any good area in vegas. The good area in vegas are all 1 bedroom and they start at 800+.

After doing the math i want to have at least bare minimum 50-55k. I also have jury duty coming up and that's been in the way of my moving out as i was really close to leave and was planning middle or end of this month since i was over the 50k threshold until i gave back 8k in 3 trips.

Axel said "Vacation", not move out. Why not take a percentage of your bankroll and test your game out for a week in Vegas? I agree with those saying why go back to a place you feel is cheating you. There are other casinos in America besides PA. And if you don't want to spend dollars on a Vegas trip, have your tried AC? It's an hour away from Harrahs Philadelphia, the casino with the new carpet you feel is cheating. Expanding your playing houses will take one possible answer (cheating) away that you feel is hurting you.

Quote: Boz

Axel said "Vacation", not move out. Why not take a percentage of your bankroll and test your game out for a week in Vegas? I agree with those saying why go back to a place you feel is cheating you. There are other casinos in America besides PA. And if you don't want to spend dollars on a Vegas trip, have your tried AC? It's an hour away from Harrahs Philadelphia, the casino with the new carpet you feel is cheating. Expanding your playing houses will take one possible answer (cheating) away that you feel is hurting you.

AC has horrible games. It's also much further than the games i play in PA for the most part. The only decent games there are 50 minimum NMSE. Cant really be playing 50 off the top. I do sometimes but i wong out aggressively at -1. I have been thinking about AC though recently just to change the scenery a bit, as you can see im clearly disgusted with PA.

All i know is ill never recommend anyone try building a bankroll through counting cards. Maybe ive just been a bit unlucky and usually after this amount of hours you have a lot more to show for it, but if someone asked for my opinion, i would highly advise against counting to BUILD a BR.

I believe KJ had a rough start to his counting career as well. He used to play in AC and said he made about 20k grinding it for i dont know how long before moving out to vegas. He now is making around 6 figures on average. Just trying to see the positive sides of it, because this surely cant last. Unless NJ/PA is rigged of course and that's why KJ struggled as well. Maybe they started rigging it after Uston sued the life out of them. Mabye there's something hidden in the statutes that let's the state do as they please in terms of infringing on the games. I still remember in Vegas at Caesars while playing i said in a joking manner to the people at the table "I heard they cheat here". One of the pit bosses overheard me and said "It's all legal anyway right"?. Even though he was joking, red flags went on in my head. Maybe it is legal for casinos to cheat.

Variance sucks in the modern card counting games. A lot of the old time card counters played single deck and double deck games with a 1/2 deck or less cut off and grinded it out with a better edge. The shoe games now require twice the patience. Most full time players will have several 300 to 400 hour losing streaks. In order to make money counting you need a lot of hours, which is why many APS have looked to other avenues. Keep your head up! If you really want to succeed at counting you will get out what you put in.

I have been counting cards for 3 years. There were casinos that I simply could not beat even though I could spend few hundred hours counting cards there. But there were casinos that I exceeded my EV. For those casinos that I could not beat, I did not bother spending time thinking about it. I always spread my actions in different casinos. By spreading my actions, I get better comps and longevity in different casinos. I can understand your frustration but it's not going to help you if you focus on those casinos that you could not win. Why don't you spend time to find more casinos that you can beat? There are many casinos out there if you're willing to travel. It applies to almost everything in real life. If something doesn't work for you, move on or work around it.

As a side note, I got 86ed eventually at those casinos even though I lost a good chunk of money there.

Quote: ZenKinG

Listen, as much as you think i troll, i dont. I may sound like it, but im not some 10 yr old kid trolling blackjack forums or being paid to troll in any way. Im just completely frustrated that's all and i know people may find it annoying, i need to let it out some way and by ranting on the forums gives me a bit of a breather just to get it off my chest. Anyone that plays a game with a 1-1.5% edge with the amount of hours i put in should be able to understand where im coming from.

I got no one to check me out anyway, you guys make it seem like it's easy finding an AP that lives next to you. You make it seem like there's AP's right when you step outside across the street. You mention 'others' winning where i play, but that cant be proven over the internet and anyone can say what they want.

So far at Sands I've put in 201 hours to be exact and im up +559 there. At Harrahs i put in 108 hours with 1 deck cutoff S17, DAS, LS 6 deck games and im down -18,363 in the hole. Keep in mind ever since they switched from 8 decks to 6 decks i havent won ONE trip. Of those 108 hours, ive played maybe 60 hours at those 6 deck games and i dropped over 18k with those unbelievable rules and pen. LOL. Sands also has phenomenal rules S17,DAS,LS,RSA and i made $559. I was also in the hole at Sands at around -5k-10k on average for the whole 700 hours up until recently where i turned a good run and am now in the net positive there. Was actually up +4900 there until i dropped 4200 in two shoes today there and now im left with a measly 500 bucks in profit over 201 hours there.

So my results total after 716.5 hours overall is a +23,574. Yes, im winning but my EV is around 49k give or take, because i do play different games and different play styles as well as different bet sizes throughout these 716.5 hours due to bankroll fluctuation. But give or take i should be somewhere around 45k and im at 23k.

I knew this game was tough, but holy hell, this is the epitome of a grind. Now I know why blackjack is still offered nationwide and the world. It's just not easy. Really isnt. The thing that angers me is hearing about others have so much success. They make it seem so easy. I dont mind other people's success, but for example you have a guy 'smallcapgrowth' from the other forum who claims hes almost at a million. You got KJ who makes 6 figures a year or high 5 fiugres ever year. There's also others who ran up their bankroll so easily it seems. You got FLASH from the other forum who is a retired pro and made tons it seems playing blackjack. I just cant help but feel im as good as any of them, i play the best games, play optimal conditions, use a high level count(not that a higher level count means much but still).

Just very frustrated. Excuse my continous rants, but if i dont let it off my chest somewhere ill explode inside. I honestly would not have a problem losing if i had a huge bankroll and just played for fun, but growing a bankroll through counting cards has to be one of the most depressing things.

1. You might be over-estimating your EV, if you say after 716 hours you have generated 45k in EV that means you expect your hourly to be $62/hr. I don't know the game conditions you play, and the spread that you use/kelly fraction, but you could theoretically be over-estimating and it would be nice to know your exact strategy.

2. You might not be playing a perfect game. You don't know what mistakes you are making, because it is implicit that you wouldn't be making them if you had knowledge of them. What I mean is you might think you have a perfect game but in reality you might have a small leak some percentage of the time, everybody makes mistakes and to think in 716.5 hours you have played a PERFECT game with ZERO blunders would be laughable.

3. Small sample size. 716.5 hours at 60 hands/hr (you stated on other posts that you have an aggressive wong strategy) equates to 43k hands. 43k hands is nowhere near enough data to draw any statistically significant conclusions. At one point in this year I was running 2.7 SDs under EV, and am now just at EV. You said you are running at 1 SD under EV which is relatively normal.

The good news is that if everything you say is true, regression to the mean should make you feel good because when you start to run "normal" it's going to feel like running hot. Basically you are a favorite to run better than you are currently running and your next 716.5 hours should be easier than these. Variance can be a bankroll killer, not in its actual effect but by indirectly making people become less disciplined and "chasing losses" at the craps table. So if you are disciplined as you claim you are for a series of running bad, then you've already accomplished more than most.

Everywhere is rigged, so you might as well just give up.

Quote: ZenKinG

Ive now played 716.5 hours with 75% of those hours at 2x50-2x250 and im 25k under EV. And this is assuming a very conservative 60 rounds per hour when backcounting. I just dont understand what Im doing wrong or if im just plain unlucky or the state of PA is as corrupt as people say they are. From doing a bit of research, it looks like the PA gaming commission has a history of being corrupt. This leads me to believe me that being 25k under EV after a good sample size of over 700 hours that these casinos are cheating in some type of fashion, especially Harrahs in Philly. Either there are less 10s and aces than normal or it's being stacked with small cards, has to be one or the other. I dont play pitch games, so the dealers dealing seconds is not even a thought. I really dont know what else to conclude at this point. Yes this is another rant and need to get it off my chest. Im absolutely disgusted with my results. I expected A LOT more especially playing such great games.

If anyone is wondering, Vegas is cancelled until further notice. Bad variance has ruined it. Bankroll is at 45k and while i can move there and get a job, that's really not in my interest and it will be hard to get something anyway in such short notice, at least a decent paying job.

Good grief, why are you trying to count cards when you can hole card instead? The counting edge is so pitifully low that it's really a waste of time. Hole carding has a much higher edge.

Take off for Indiana, or FL and devour the weak dealers. Both locations are overflowing with opportunities and ripe with inefficient casinos that are making too much money.

Quote: Keyser

Good grief, why are you trying to count cards when you can hole card instead? The counting edge is so pitifully low that it's really a waste of time. Hole carding has a much higher edge.

Take off for Indiana, or FL and devour the weak dealers. Both locations are overflowing with opportunities and ripe with inefficient casinos that are making too much money.

Probably not much longer...

Quote: ZenKinG

Ive now played 716.5 hours with 75% of those hours at 2x50-2x250 and im 25k under EV. And this is assuming a very conservative 60 rounds per hour when backcounting. I just dont understand what Im doing wrong or if im just plain unlucky or the state of PA is as corrupt as people say they are. From doing a bit of research, it looks like the PA gaming commission has a history of being corrupt. This leads me to believe me that being 25k under EV after a good sample size of over 700 hours that these casinos are cheating in some type of fashion, especially Harrahs in Philly. Either there are less 10s and aces than normal or it's being stacked with small cards, has to be one or the other. I dont play pitch games, so the dealers dealing seconds is not even a thought. I really dont know what else to conclude at this point. Yes this is another rant and need to get it off my chest. Im absolutely disgusted with my results. I expected A LOT more especially playing such great games.

If anyone is wondering, Vegas is cancelled until further notice. Bad variance has ruined it. Bankroll is at 45k and while i can move there and get a job, that's really not in my interest and it will be hard to get something anyway in such short notice, at least a decent paying job.

Come on over to the craps tables today in Philly Harrahs.. Ill show you how to win in craps. They dont fix dice ..that Im aware of.

Having $45,000, (along with a car, your health, and a job skill) is more than enough to drive across the country and live in a new place to live. If you can't do that with as much money as you have now, you will never have enough money

Quote: ZenKinG

Thanks, but i test myself enough on verite to know im playing perfectly. Yes it's not the same as being in a casino, but the casino never has been able to rattle me since day 1. I always keep my composure, never get distracted, dont drink, etc.

Why post for advice if you're not willing to listen?

Quote: ZenKinG

Im close to 1 SD down.

There are some very kind, bright, helpful APs here. Once you posted that single sentence I am amazed a single one takes you seriously anymore.

It leaves only two possibilities--

1. You are trolling.
2. You have not even the most basic understanding of variance, to think being down 1 SD is worthy of a thread.

Which is it?

Simply put it is apparent that you just don't have the temperament to AP full time. Keep it as a serious hobby.

BJ counters are sometimes called "mechanics", and playing can be called "grinding it out".

For good reason
(1) The edge is small
(2) Bankroll required for safe play is very high.
(3) You might run negative for one year or longer.

In the 1990s, a friend (Won WSOP main event, and Dad wrote his Ph.D. on blackjack) explained to me that
(a) Maybe you win 0.5+ bets per HOUR
(b) At $5 BJ to make $2.50-7.50/hr you might want $4,000 bankroll (400X).
It was my introduction to RoR analysis.

It's VERY VERY common for people to overbet their bankroll.

Doesn't matter if you drink or talk while you play.
I learned to play cards in school, while drinking, talking with friends, and staying up all night for 36 hrs.

What matters is your actual skill in playing in the real world...
(a) Are you able to locate games with good penetration & conditions good for play?
(b) How long can you play without getting booted?
(c) What is your real world error rate?
(d) Are you able to get the big bets out, and bet enough at high odds, to make up for bets at <100% (given needs for camouflage)?

Quote: WatchMeWin

Come on over to the craps tables today in Philly Harrahs.. Ill show you how to win in craps. They dont fix dice ..that Im aware of.

That's great advice. Leave a game that he can win at long term for one he can't.


ZCore13

Quote: Zcore13

That's great advice. Leave a game that he can win at long term for one he can't.


ZCore13

Im not sure if he is real or not... but Ill be at Harrahs today if anyone wants to join and watch.

Quote: Zcore13

That's great advice. Leave a game that he can win at long term for one he can't.


ZCore13

According to WatchMeWin, with some positive thinking/attitude and good karma you can beat craps.

Quote: WatchMeWin

Im not sure if he is real or not... but Ill be at Harrahs today if anyone wants to join and watch.

They don't rig the dice there as well?

Quote: AxelWolf

According to WatchMeWin, with some positive thinking/attitude and good karma you can beat craps.

You forget to add my most important equation... DMK=HPS And I dont think just having good karma or positive attitude can bring winnings to the table... but I will say that rhythm and flow on the dice table is a real factor... and yes, negative energy on a slow moving crowded table , in my 20 year experience of playing dice on an average of 3x a week (ive probably seen over 2 million rolls live) I believe it does inexplicably have some affect. You can see it, hear it, taste it, feel it, or smell it... but energy is real. And having the discipline to hit and run is imperative. Its worked for me anyway. Whether it is a huge coincidence repeatedly or not, I cant believe that it is... and I am typically a skeptic and a rational person. Anyway, it is what it is. gl in your gaming, as always.

Quote: AxelWolf

They don't rig the dice there as well?

I dont think they rig the dice as they have too much to lose if it were exploited.... but then again, where there is BIG money, I never say never to anything. ha

Quote: WatchMeWin

You forget to add my most important equation... DMK=HPS And I dont think just having good karma or positive attitude can bring winnings to the table... but I will say that rhythm and flow on the dice table is a real factor... and yes, negative energy on a slow moving crowded table , in my 20 year experience of playing dice on an average of 3x a week (ive probably seen over 2 million rolls live) I believe it does inexplicably have some affect. You can see it, hear it, taste it, feel it, or smell it... but energy is real. And having the discipline to hit and run is imperative. Its worked for me anyway. Whether it is a huge coincidence repeatedly or not, I cant believe that it is... and I am typically a skeptic and a rational person. Anyway, it is what it is. gl in your gaming, as always.

I found a herd (is a group of unicorns called a herd?) of real live unicorns yesterday. Would anyone like to buy one? I'll sell them real cheap too. They might look like a dead horse with a spike shoved through their heads but I promise they are living unicorns.

Quote: WatchMeWin

You forget to add my most important equation... DMK=HPS And I dont think just having good karma or positive attitude can bring winnings to the table... but I will say that rhythm and flow on the dice table is a real factor... and yes, negative energy on a slow moving crowded table , in my 20 year experience of playing dice on an average of 3x a week (ive probably seen over 2 million rolls live) I believe it does inexplicably have some affect. You can see it, hear it, taste it, feel it, or smell it... but energy is real. And having the discipline to hit and run is imperative. Its worked for me anyway. Whether it is a huge coincidence repeatedly or not, I cant believe that it is... and I am typically a skeptic and a rational person. Anyway, it is what it is. gl in your gaming, as always.

btw, I was at Harrahs a few weeks ago. I walked up to the always crowded table and watch a guy scream and yell at everyone including the dealers... and not in a good way. There was 7 out after 7 out after 7 out. I stayed away and just watched with amazement. Finally, he busted out and left the table. I waited a few minutes then jumped in. I hit a few numbers and went off... and repeated a couple of times. Made about 50% on my money. From the corner of my eye, I could see that same negative bastard running back to the table with some more money.. he couldnt wait to f!#/ things up. He threw his money on the table.. I went off and down. You can guess what happened next.. 7 out right away. Then 3 more 7 outs right away. I didnt stay around to watch any more but I can assure you that he brought bad vibes and bad energy to the table... for what its worth.

Quote: PokerGrinder

I found a herd (is a group of unicorns called a herd?) of real live unicorns yesterday. Would anyone like to buy one? I'll sell them real cheap too. They might look like a dead horse with a spike shoved through their heads but I promise they are living unicorns.

How much? I used to hunt Unicorns.

Quote: ZenKinG

...I got no one to check me out anyway, you guys make it seem like it's easy finding an AP that lives next to you. You make it seem like there's AP's right when you step outside across the street...

This is what shows your youth/inexperience, and clearly one of your larger weaknesses as a person. Absolutely nothing is impossible. If you really want something to happen, you absolutely CAN make it happen. If you weren't so convinced you were playing so perfectly, then you'd be OPEN to the idea of dotting all of your i's and crossing all of your t's and getting checked out by someone qualified. If you wanted to go that route you could literally post a thread with an offer and more than likely get taken up by more than one AP. If you wanted to get checked out you could sign up for an advanced boot camp with BJA and meet A BUNCH of skilled AP's and get checked out by MULTIPLE qualified counters... but you don't want to. You are being closed minded about the possibility that you're not playing perfect. And maybe you are playing well enough, but I guarantee you're not playing as perfectly as you think you are. No one does. That was a tough pill for me to swallow a while back too, because everything I do I strive to do it 100% perfectly... Part of growing as a person is being able to be open minded to all possibilities, no matter how silly they may sound or how hard they are to believe. If you don't have hard proof one way or another, then BOTH possibilities are possible. Since you've never been checked out by a qualified counter, I 100% believe you could be counting perfect, and 100% believe you could be counting and playing like complete sh*t. You have no proof either way.

Same goes for Vegas. If you really wanted to make it happen, you'd make it happen. As someone else said, if $45k isn't enough, $55k won't be enough either. You HAD $50k a week ago... then lost ~$4k playing. Why were you playing still? Why didn't you pick up and move to Vegas with your $50k? If you wanted to move out there right now and play you could/would. You have enough of a bank and you could get a part time job and you could try to work for other AP teams (expanding your knowledge and EV in the process)... but you don't want to. You want to stay in the place you're in, and complain about being down 1 damn deviation... I thought you were down like 2.5 SD's. 1SD is basic, expected, and completely normal. If you can't handle 1SD, you're not cut out for counting.

When I posted on Ken Smith's board, I got a lot of help from APs. One invited me to a casino I didn't frequent, sat at the table with me and over lunch an hour later pointed out a flaw in my game I was completely unaware of.
Somewhere along the way, I've lost the desire to play cards for hours several days a week. Ten years ago, there was little I enjoyed more than playing for hours on end. I only mention it because without a backup plan in place, I'd be up a creek...

Quote: ZenKinG

Playing over 700 hours and only having 23.5k to show for it when my EV is a conservative 50k, it hurts quite a bit. Im close to 1 SD down. As much as this thread sounds like im searching for pity, im not. Just wondering if others have experienced underperforming over such a long stretch of time/hours.

Woah....
You estimated that you should be $50k up ($70 per hour)up and you are only $23.5k ($32 per hour) and you are surprised and irritated?
You claim to have more than doubled a starting bankroll which was way underfunded at (45k-(45k+23.5k))=21.5k. I don't understand what's to be sickened about?

Now. Onto your SD calculations: Did you estimate that you are "almost 1SD away" based on your estimated average bet size? Because you should actually estimate based on each individual bet size because a few big bets will have massive contribution. In any case, you claim that 700 hours is a "good sample size.": It's not! 'Almost 1SD away' is not at all remarkable ( if you calculated it properly) You stood a 1 in 3 chance of being there under the criteria that you yourself applied. over 32% of players playing as you did would experience equally crap results.

I'm taking your word for the calculated EV and SD, though I suspect your estimates were flawed.

I also doubt that you are as proficient as you think.

Think yourself lucky you came out ahead.

Quote: crazydazy

The good news is that if everything you say is true, regression to the mean should make you feel good because when you start to run "normal" it's going to feel like running hot. Basically you are a favorite to run better than you are currently running and your next 716.5 hours should be easier than these.

Hmmm no. Gambler's fallacy.

Quote: OnceDear

Hmmm no. Gambler's fallacy.

No, crazydazy is right.

If results are "below EV" to this point, he is a favorite to run better than that in the future. Starting at this point in time, he would be expected to have future results of "EV," which is obviously better than "below EV."

He is NOT favored to run better than EV in order to "make up" for his prior bad luck, which I think is at least one definition of "gambler's fallacy." But that is not what crazydazy is saying.

Quote: MrGoldenSun

No, crazydazy is right.

If results are "below EV" to this point, he is a favorite to run better than that in the future. Starting at this point in time, he would be expected to have future results of "EV," which is obviously better than "below EV."

He is NOT favored to run better than EV in order to "make up" for his prior bad luck, which I think is at least one definition of "gambler's fallacy." But that is not what crazydazy is saying.

Acknowledged

Zen,

Counting cards is actually just the cover play for hole carding. Meaning, most of the people making money say that they're counting, when they're really hole carding. The others are just camouflaging wins from elsewhere. The same is true when you're 86ed. It's just the cover story. You don't need to immediately know how many sds you are outside the norm, or whether or not your strategy is exactly to computer model, because in the casino if you're playing that way... you're not going to make dirt. You're also going to stick out like a sore thumb and the casino is going to limit your betting.

If you're into the minimalist lifestyle, then go for it. (FYI, women aren't particularly attracted to that) Just stick to counting.

However if you want to make money, think bigger. Get a higher edge, and learn the art of hole carding and edging.

Quote: OnceDear

Acknowledged

However, I also agree with your prior post, so everyone's a winner! 1 SD under is not remotely unusual, and I think there is a some chance OP is miscalculating EV or SD.

Quote: MrGoldenSun

However, I also agree with your prior post, so everyone's a winner! 1 SD under is not remotely unusual, and I think there is a some chance OP is miscalculating EV or SD.

Even a 1% error rate, can wreck havoc with your long-term return.

My guess is OP is used to being "smarter" than the people he's around, but unlike "even smarter" people (or not-so-smart people who have more wisdom, humbleness, or experience), is stubborn and has a hard time accepting good information & advice.

1) Not recognizing the value of good advice - bad sign...
2) Not recognizing "I might not be 100% correct in everything I say" - another bad sign...
3) Stubbornness is often a sign of "a little above-average" intelligence - good, but not so great sign...

Good luck to the OP.

...but I would suggest finding some more humility, intelligence, or experience.

Well I'm happy to report since I made this thread last week I've caught a good run of cards and rallied a +11,300 win over 3 trips totaling 26 hours. I'm now at an all time high in profit and my bankroll is over 55k.

I always knew this game was a roller coaster, but actually going through the swings you really start understanding the true nature of this sickening, but yet humbling game. Throughout these 750 hours, ive learned to never get big headed playing blackjack at least in the form of AP counting. Hole carding might be a bit of a different story.

I'm now somewhat close to EV, though not really sure because I've done a terrible job at estimating how many rounds per hour I actually get. I'm guessing through the combination of styles I play, that it's somewhere in the 60-70 rounds per hour range maybe higher because I do play heads up quite a bit.

All I know is for anyone considering counting, it is the epitome of a grind and it will test you internally to the point you actually start to believe casinos are cheating. (P.S. I still think Harrahs is cheating lol). Nonetheless, I now understand why blackjack still exists and it all makes sense now. Regardless of how good you are, the game is a huge grind and is tough to beat. More often than not, most players will fail because they don't have the discipline and perseverance or bankroll size to fight through the swings.

Here's to more good cards.

Quote: ZenKinG

Well I'm happy to report since I made this thread last week I've caught a good run of cards and rallied a +11,300 win over 3 trips totaling 26 hours. I'm now at an all time high in profit and my bankroll is over 55k.

I always knew this game was a roller coaster, but actually going through the swings you really start understanding the true nature of this sickening, but yet humbling game. Throughout these 750 hours, ive learned to never get big headed playing blackjack at least in the form of AP counting. Hole carding might be a bit of a different story.

I'm now somewhat close to EV, though not really sure because I've done a terrible job at estimating how many rounds per hour I actually get. I'm guessing through the combination of styles I play, that it's somewhere in the 60-70 rounds per hour range maybe higher because I do play heads up quite a bit.

All I know is for anyone considering counting, it is the epitome of a grind and it will test you internally to the point you actually start to believe casinos are cheating. (P.S. I still think Harrahs is cheating lol). Nonetheless, I now understand why blackjack still exists and it all makes sense now. Regardless of how good you are, the game is a huge grind and is tough to beat. More often than not, most players will fail because they don't have the discipline and perseverance or bankroll size to fight through the swings.

Here's to more good cards.

Do you play bj in the back room by the noodle bar at Harrahs Philly?

no i only play on the main floor. I actually never checked out the hi limit room, i might go check it out next time. What are the minimums in there? I sometimes play $50 games heads up at other stores and wong out at -1. Maybe ill do better in the hi limit room there.