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RS
RS
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May 11th, 2015 at 4:55:25 AM permalink
Wait WTF -- what do you mean I lost??? I don't get my fcking bonus $$$?
OnceDear
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May 11th, 2015 at 5:05:21 AM permalink
Quote: RS

Wait WTF -- what do you mean I lost??? I don't get my fcking bonus $$$?


Lol @ RS
If you withdraw before meeting wagering requirements, you get no bonus. You did meet betting requirements didn't you?
It will be annoying to you and amusing to us... well not maybe amusing... If you report they take the negative winnings from you to balance your account.
Psalm 25:16 Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted. Proverbs 18:2 A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
teddys
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May 11th, 2015 at 5:48:48 AM permalink
Quote: RS

Wait WTF -- what do you mean I lost??? I don't get my fcking bonus $$$?


Quote: OnceDear

Lol @ RS
If you withdraw before meeting wagering requirements, you get no bonus. You did meet betting requirements didn't you?
It will be annoying to you and amusing to us... well not maybe amusing... If you report they take the negative winnings from you to balance your account.



It doesn't matter if you met the wagering requirements or not. All their bonuses are "sticky." Which means that on any withdrawal you make after meeting the wagering requirements, they will subtract the amount of the bonus. You have to finish over and above the amount of your deposit + bonus to profit at all.

I just lost the last of my bankroll on blackjack flat betting $20. I'm down $1,400.00 cash. I don't think I will deposit any more. I don't trust this online casino at all. It seems like they were gaffing the double downs especially.
"Dice, verily, are armed with goads and driving-hooks, deceiving and tormenting, causing grievous woe." -Rig Veda 10.34.4
Wizard
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May 11th, 2015 at 6:06:56 AM permalink
Quote: teddys

It doesn't matter if you met the wagering requirements or not. All their bonuses are "sticky." Which means that on any withdrawal you make after meeting the wagering requirements, they will subtract the amount of the bonus. You have to finish over and above the amount of your deposit + bonus to profit at all.



Is there any easy way to tell when you did meet the wagering requirement?

Quote:

I just lost the last of my bankroll on blackjack flat betting $20. I'm down $1,400.00 cash. I don't think I will deposit any more. I don't trust this online casino at all. It seems like they were gaffing the double downs especially.



I'm sorry to hear that Teddy. I was doing really badly on the doubles for a while, getting small cards almost every time. However, when I started to track it my results seemed normal. A skeptic could easily argue I had bad luck.

Again, if you can get a log file I'd be happy to look at it. After you gave them $1,400 it would seem the least they could do.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
teddys
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May 11th, 2015 at 6:12:45 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Is there any easy way to tell when you did meet the wagering requirement?

You can go into the promotions tab and click on the active button next to your bonus, and it will tell you how much wagering you have left.

Of course, when I was playing, they couldn't get the bonus to show up on my list so I had no idea how far away I was and had to ask every time. Typical.

Quote: Wizard

I'm sorry to hear that Teddy. I was doing really badly on the doubles for a while, getting small cards almost every time. However, when I started to track it my results seemed normal. A skeptic could easily argue I had bad luck.

Again, if you can get a log file I'd be happy to look at it. After you gave them $1,400 it would seem the least they could do.

It wasn't that I was getting small cards, it was that the dealer was drawing to 20 and 21 more often that I believe is statistically possible.

I have requested a log file from support. Let's see if they send it.

May I ask if you won? Would you recommend making more deposits, or do you think there is enough evidence to be wary of this casino by now?
"Dice, verily, are armed with goads and driving-hooks, deceiving and tormenting, causing grievous woe." -Rig Veda 10.34.4
Wizard
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May 11th, 2015 at 6:29:25 AM permalink
Quote: teddys

You can go into the promotions tab and click on the active button next to your bonus, and it will tell you how much wagering you have left.



Thanks.

Quote:

May I ask if you won? Would you recommend making more deposits, or do you think there is enough evidence to be wary of this casino by now?



I just had another good session so am about even. The problem is there is a lot of circumstantial evidence but I need a smoking gun. I view it like a death penalty case, I need a very high threshold of proof to convict. Personally, I still have a reasonable doubt.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
Romes
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May 11th, 2015 at 7:22:08 AM permalink
Here are my "cashier logs" of my sessions. Yes, I only had 4, and this is ALL the blackjack I played on their site (tried to play JoB after I determined the blackjack was rigged, that's when I ran in to the "A-2-3-4-5" isn't a straight rule of theirs). This also doesn't include my business partners stats, which were equally detrimental. I mean, what are the odds of us never bettering more than $20/hand (and really having an average bet of about $15) and losing a $3,500 over a day or two in a single deck player advantage blackjack game? Welp, here's my results:


Game Start End Bets Total Wager NET RESULT
Classic Blackjack 2015-05-06 08:10 2015-05-06 10:29 223 $3,580.50 ($1,039.50)
Classic Blackjack 2015-05-06 10:30 2015-05-06 10:48 107 $2,140.00 ($420.00)
Surrender 2015-05-06 10:50 2015-05-06 11:37 118 $930.00 ($27.50)
Surrender 2015-05-06 11:38 2015-05-06 14:23 657 $4,126.00 ($48.00)

***I'm not sure how this took in to affect my "double up" gambles, etc... Which I had a few for a couple dollars, then started betting $40 per gamble when I was under the false advertising assumption that it paid 2-1, when I then lost 14 "coin flips" in a row!!

From this we can derive the following information:
Session 1: Avg Bet = $16.06, Hands played = 223... EV = (223)(16.06)(.0075) = $26.86... SD = Sqrt(223)(1.1*16.06) = $263.81. My net loss was $1,039.50, which would be 4 Standard Deviations out.

Session 2: Avg Bet = $20, Hands played = 107... EV = (107)(20)(.0075) = $16.05... SD = Sqrt(107)(1.1*20) = $227.57. My net loss was $420, which would be almost 2 Standard Deviations out.

Session 3: Avg Bet = $7.88, Hands played = 118... EV = (118)(7.88)(.0075) = $6.97... SD = Sqrt(118)(1.1*7.88) = $94.16. My net loss was $27.50, which would be within 1 Standard Deviation. Interesting to note like all of their games/wagers, when you bet like $5, it seems to be "normal." It's when you bet $20/hand or more that you seem to just get absolutely obliterated. You can see this 'proof' from Sessions 1 & 2 vs Sessions 3 & 4.

Session 2: Avg Bet = $6.28, Hands played = 657... EV = (657)(6.28)(.0075) = $30.95... SD = Sqrt(657)(1.1*6.28) = $177.07. My net loss was $48, which would be within 1 Standard Deviation.

Again, note how my average bet is less than $10 and I still fall within 1 SD, even though I NEVER HAD A WINNING SESSION of blackjack where the game supposedly had a player advantage.

SUMMARY
Total Hands Played: 1105
Total Amount Wagered: $10,776.50
Overall Average Bet: $9.75

Overall EV = (1105)(9.75)(.0075) = $80.80
Overall SD = Sqrt(1105)(1.1*9.75) = $356.52

ACTUAL Overall Loss = $1,535.00 ... 4.31 Standard Deviations from EV ...and I'd like to point out my last 2 sessions of only betting an average bet UNDER $10 definitely 'smoothed out' my results just a little.
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
OnceDear
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May 11th, 2015 at 7:27:59 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Thanks.



I just had another good session so am about even. The problem is there is a lot of circumstantial evidence but I need a smoking gun. I view it like a death penalty case, I need a very high threshold of proof to convict. Personally, I still have a reasonable doubt.



What about the accusation that the certification logo that they show is ripped off and that they don't seem to have said certification?

Quote: another forum

Hi xxxxx,

Certified sites have our logo. When you click on the logo, it shows the certificate issued by us. From inside this certificate you can click on “Original” which will display the Original certificate on our web site.

Regards,

Kiren
iTech Labs
www.itechlabs.com.au



ps. logo seems to be for their rng, not for their games.
Psalm 25:16 Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted. Proverbs 18:2 A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
teddys
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May 11th, 2015 at 7:30:10 AM permalink
Quote: Romes

after I determined the blackjack was rigged

What made you determine that? I would agree with you. The downswings were just incredible. Dealer seemed to draw to 21 (not even just 20) WAY too many times on double downs. I wish I had kept track. I think I will if I make another deposit. (Not bloody likely at this point).
"Dice, verily, are armed with goads and driving-hooks, deceiving and tormenting, causing grievous woe." -Rig Veda 10.34.4
Ibeatyouraces
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May 11th, 2015 at 7:32:37 AM permalink
You guys are a glutton for punishment.
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
Romes
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May 11th, 2015 at 7:35:32 AM permalink
Quote: teddys

What made you determine that? I would agree with you. The downswings were just incredible. Dealer seemed to draw to 21 (not even just 20) WAY too many times on double downs. I wish I had kept track. I think I will if I make another deposit. (Not bloody likely at this point).


Review my other posts where I log my sessions/EV's/SD's. Overall I was out OVER 4 standard deviations from my EV, after 1105 hands, with an average bet of like $15, and lost a little over $1,500 (all of my bonus money).

FYI (Wizard), I did request a hand by hand log of my blackjack sessions. So I suppose now it's a waiting game to see if a) they provide them, b) they jumble the numbers when providing them, or c) they actually provide real logs which will ultimately show their game is not fair.
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
Wizard
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May 11th, 2015 at 7:37:24 AM permalink
Quote: OnceDear

What about the accusation that the certification logo that they show is ripped off and that they don't seem to have said certification?



I have written iTechLabs three times asking if Mission2Game was properly using their seal. I have yet to receive a reply. Regarding that quote from Kiren, it could be that M2G forgot to link it to the iTechs site. That could be filed under careless error rather than theft.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
teddys
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May 11th, 2015 at 7:39:05 AM permalink
Quote: Ibeatyouraces

You guys are a glutton for punishment.

I never disputed that :)
"Dice, verily, are armed with goads and driving-hooks, deceiving and tormenting, causing grievous woe." -Rig Veda 10.34.4
Wizard
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May 11th, 2015 at 7:46:47 AM permalink
Quote: OnceDear

What about the accusation that the certification logo that they show is ripped off and that they don't seem to have said certification?



To add to this, iTechLabs keeps a list of clients on their web site. One of them is "Soft Magic." M2G uses Soft Magic Dice as their software provider.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
teddys
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May 11th, 2015 at 7:51:36 AM permalink
I just got an e-mail from M2G. They have a new bonus available for 225% match up to $1350 in bonus.

I think I'll hold off on that.
"Dice, verily, are armed with goads and driving-hooks, deceiving and tormenting, causing grievous woe." -Rig Veda 10.34.4
Romes
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May 11th, 2015 at 8:21:00 AM permalink
Quote: teddys

I just got an e-mail from M2G. They have a new bonus available for 225% match up to $1350 in bonus.

I think I'll hold off on that.


lol but you're a prime customer! Tomorrow they'll personally call you and say "Hey, we want you back, we miss you... we need you. Hows about we make it a 400% bonus then???" =p
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
GWAE
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May 11th, 2015 at 9:30:26 AM permalink
I am jealous of all you. I wish I had an extra $300 to light on fire. I can't even afford to read this forum.
Expect the worst and you will never be disappointed. I AM NOT PART OF GWAE RADIO SHOW
mustangsally
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May 11th, 2015 at 10:03:56 AM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

Please give your opinion if you think this casino is fair or not? Do you think people should continue to play it under the premise its fair?

you mean honest in the games it offers as the games to me do not look fair (by gaming definition that IS).
you play games all the time that are not fair but are honest, you hope.

Quote: AxelWolf

Your math, statistics and simulations are meaningless when it comes to online gambling.

so are the Wizards
Quote: AxelWolf

There's a high probability many online casinos are not fair.

you mean are not honest

Quote: AxelWolf

You can claim everything is statistically within reason, we cant argue with that <snip>

ok
enough said

looks to me no one in this thread knows the max bet to make per round with a bankroll of say $1500 and an edge of 0.71%

I bet $9 (i round up)
the Wizard knows the answer (or knew the answer at one time)
and >=$20 is way too high and just increases the RoR but some will be luckier than others.

"say it is not so Sally!"

"the casino cheats!"
a voice crying in the wilderness...
"ask to see the code that is behind the casino games in question."

"NO WAY"
"do not look behind that curtain!"

over bet your bankroll and cry cheating (not all cheat all the time maybe, imo)
an open option to use
an event of 1 in 100,000 never happens (probability = 0)
an event of 1 in 100 million never happens either, not every week around the world

OK
time for tea and "Meet the Wife"
Go Freddie

found this 2
calculate the unit bankroll required when having the edge
looks to be used all over the internet and is messy as always in me Excel
I Heart Vi Hart
CrystalMath
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May 11th, 2015 at 11:42:27 AM permalink
I deposited $25 this morning, but I did not take any bonuses. I played blackjack for $1, then switched back and forth between blackjack and video poker. I feel like I got a fair game, and my balance is now $110, after a few four of a kinds. It could be that the games are gaffed when you are playing with a bonus or at higher bet levels, but I'm not going to find out.

Now, I'm trying to cashout and it doesn't give me any payment options. I've opened a support ticket, so I'll see how that goes.

For anyone who plays here, I recommend downloading a program called Fiddler. It allows you to capture web traffic. When you are done playing, you can use the search function and find "blackjack-response". Make sure you choose the option to select matches and to search binaries. Then, right click on one of the sessions and select "Decode Selected Sessions." Then, right click again and choose Save >> Selected Sessions >> as Text to save the log to a file. The results will look something like this:

Quote:


...
{"blackjack-response":{"next":"WAN","payout":{"open":"2500","bet":"100","win":"0","close":"2400","bonus":"0","real":"2500"},"complete":"false","dealer":{"card":{"name":"six","up":"true","suit":"SPADE","keep":"false","winner":"false"},"number":"1","win":"0","bet":"0","score":"6"},"hand":{"card":[{"name":"queen","up":"true","suit":"DIAMOND","keep":"false","winner":"false"},{"name":"five","up":"true","suit":"HEART","keep":"false","winner":"false"}],"number":"1","win":"200","bet":"100","history":{"action":"bet"},"options":{"option":[{"name":"hit","@attributes":{"conditional":"false"}},{"name":"stand","@attributes":{"conditional":"false"}}]},"score":"15"},"player-cash-account":{"balance-after-bet":{"total":"2400","real-total":"2400","bonus":"0"},"balance-start":{"total":"2500","real-total":"2500","bonus":"0"},"balance-end":{"total":"2400","real-total":"2400","bonus":"0"}},"balances":{"total":"2500","bonus":"0","real":"2500"}}}
...
{"blackjack-response":{"next":"WAN","payout":{"open":"2400","bet":"0","win":"200","close":"2600","bonus":"0","real":"2400"},"complete":"true","dealer":{"card":[{"name":"six","up":"true","suit":"SPADE","keep":"false","winner":"false"},{"name":"king","up":"true","suit":"DIAMOND","keep":"false","winner":"false"},{"name":"eight","up":"true","suit":"HEART","keep":"false","winner":"false"}],"number":"1","win":"0","bet":"0","score":"24"},"hand":{"card":[{"name":"queen","up":"true","suit":"DIAMOND","keep":"false","winner":"false"},{"name":"five","up":"true","suit":"HEART","keep":"false","winner":"false"}],"number":"1","win":"200","bet":"100","history":{"action":["bet","stand"]},"options":{"option":{"name":"bet","@attributes":{"conditional":"false"}}},"score":"15"},"gamble-info":{"odds":{"odd":[{"id":"ONE_IN_TWO","payout":"400","options":{"option":["RED","BLACK"]}},{"id":"ONE_IN_FOUR","payout":"800","options":{"option":["CLUB","DIAMOND","HEART","SPADE"]}}]},"history-cards":""},"balances":{"total":"2400","bonus":"0","real":"2400"},"player-cash-account":{"balance-start":{"total":"2400","real-total":"2400","bonus":"0"},"balance-end":{"total":"2600","real-total":"2600","bonus":"0"},"balance-after-bet":{"total":"2400","real-total":"2400","bonus":"0"}}}}



This will contain all of the information necessary to analyze the fairness of the game.
I heart Crystal Math.
OnceDear
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May 11th, 2015 at 11:47:38 AM permalink
Quote: CrystalMath

I deposited $25 this morning, but I did not take any bonuses. . . .

Now, I'm trying to cashout and it doesn't give me any payment options. I've opened a support ticket, so I'll see how that goes.



Whaaaa?
Maybe they never had to bother designing a cash out process.
Psalm 25:16 Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted. Proverbs 18:2 A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
CrystalMath
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May 11th, 2015 at 11:49:14 AM permalink
I just read the cashout terms and conditions, and the only cashout method available in the US is wire transfer with a $200 minimum and a $45 fee. I'm not sure if that means I can cashout $200 and receive $155 or if I must cashout $245 to receive $200. Also, if I deposit more money in order to reach the minimum, I must wager that money at least 1x to avoid extra fees.
I heart Crystal Math.
OnceDear
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May 11th, 2015 at 11:53:56 AM permalink
Quote: CrystalMath

I just read the cashout terms and conditions, and the only cashout method available in the US is wire transfer with a $200 minimum and a $45 fee. I'm not sure if that means I can cashout $200 and receive $155 or if I must cashout $245 to receive $200. Also, if I deposit more money in order to reach the minimum, I must wager that money at least 1x to avoid extra fees.


6u993r me backwards!!!!

Nothing sounds good about this casino.
But it has a great affiliate scheme, so just about every mention of it online is a sign up affiliate link. Buries the quite frequent criticisms.

And spam????
Who's signed up and not had his inbox filled with bonus offers? Who's detected that the unsub link in said spam will not work?
Psalm 25:16 Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted. Proverbs 18:2 A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
Wizard
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May 11th, 2015 at 11:55:14 AM permalink
A friend of mine who is not a forum member has Emailed me dozens of times insisting he got cheated by M2G. Here is his play summary.



He says he flat bet $50, except for when he was near zero he bet less to have double/split money. Here is a summary of his play:

Number of bets: 222
Average bet $48.62
Expected win: 1.33 units
Actual win: -61.19 units
Loss due to "bad luck": 62.52 units
One standard deviation: 16.39 units
Number standard deviations down: 3.81
Probability of luck this bad or worse = 1 in 14,658 (assuming flat betting, which was nearly the case)

There is a lot of circumstantial evidence that something fishy is going on. Still, I wish I could get my hands on a bloody glove.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
Romes
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May 11th, 2015 at 11:59:17 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

A friend of mine who is not a forum member has Emailed me dozens of times insisting he got cheated by M2G. Here is his play summary.



He says he flat bet $50, except for when he was near zero he bet less to have double/split money. Here is a summary of his play:

Number of bets: 222
Average bet $48.62
Expected win: 1.33 units
Actual win: -61.19 units
Loss due to "bad luck": 62.52 units
One standard deviation: 16.39 units
Number standard deviations down: 3.81
Probability of luck this bad or worse = 1 in 14,658 (assuming flat betting, which was nearly the case)

There is a lot of circumstantial evidence that something fishy is going on. Still, I wish I could get my hands on a bloody glove.


That's the 5th person or so to be more than 3 SD's out... of the like 6 that said they deposited. I should think there's a LOT of blood to DNA test =P.
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
Wizard
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May 11th, 2015 at 12:21:02 PM permalink
Quote: Romes

That's the 5th person or so to be more than 3 SD's out... of the like 6 that said they deposited. I should think there's a LOT of blood to DNA test =P.



I'm not doubting anybody experience but I'm still hoping to get something more black and white. It probably cost at least a million dollars to launch this casino so I want to be very slow about making any formal accusations.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
mustangsally
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May 11th, 2015 at 1:05:23 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

One standard deviation: 16.39 units

so standard deviation for this game = 1.1
i would have thought it to be much higher at least 1.16 or maybe even 1.2
that by itself increases a session RoR as you know

time for a cvdata run
I Heart Vi Hart
Romes
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May 11th, 2015 at 1:15:17 PM permalink
Since I have little better to do with my account... I was playing the "without wheels" JoB they offer. I max bet the $1 denomination for a total wager of $5. It took my money and froze (not dealing any cards). I sent 4 messages over the last 15 minutes to the "chat window" which is usually compulsively filled with a support person asking if they can help you. Crickets at this point... Guess I'll have to open my 7th support ticket?
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
beachbumbabs
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May 11th, 2015 at 1:22:02 PM permalink
Quote: beachbumbabs

Bankroll was determined by depositing $200.00, matched by a 777% deposit, for a starting total of 1754.00.
All sessions were 100 hands.
All sessions were flat bet for 1 unit.
All decisions were determined using the strategy chart on page 1 of this thread.
500 hands were played on day 1. 1100 hands were played on day 2.
Some other games were tried on day 1 after the end of the BJ session, which is why the total changes from row 5 to row 6.





GameUnit size in $Starting BR in $Ending BR in $Net $$Net UnitsSD in $SD result
Classic10
1754.00
1804.00
50.00
5.0
$110.00
0.454545
Royal25
1773.30
1910.80
137.50
5.5
$275.00
0.500000
Royal25
1910.80
2360.80
450.00
18.0
$275.00
1.636364
Royal25
2360.80
2635.80
275.00
11.0
$275.00
1.000000
Royal 25
2635.80
2598.30
-37.50
-1.5
$275.00
-.136364
Royal(2nd day) 25
2508.30
2495.80
-12.50
-.5
$275.00
-.045455
Royal 25
2495.80
2858.30
362.50
14.5
$275.00
1.318182
Royal 25
2858.30
3245.80
387.50
15.5
$275.00
1.409091
Royal 25
3245.80
3483.30
237.50
9.5
$275.00
0.863636
Royal 25
3483.30
3433.30
-50.00
-2.0
$275.00
-0.181818
Royal 25
3433.30
3345.80
-87.50
-3.5
$275.00
-0.318182
Royal 25
3345.80
2733.30
-612.50
-24.5
$275.00
-2.227273
Royal 25
2733.30
1533.30
-1200.00
-48.0
$275.00
-4.363636
Surrender 15
1533.30
1075.80
-457.50
-30.5
$165.00
-2.772727
Surrender 15
1075.80
528.30
-547.50
-36.5
$165.00
-3.318182
Surrender 15
528.30
228.30
-300.00
-20.0
$165.00
-1.818182
TOTALS1600=22.1875avg
-$1405.00
-88
$244.06
-1.43918


I have this data also by unit & $$ won/loss every 10 hands, and the cards initially dealt, decisions made, and result for each hand individually.
There was 1 inadvertent strategy error, when "hit" was clicked instead of "stand", resulting in a loss/player bust. However, assuming the card taken inadvertently was the card the dealer would have received, the hand would still have been a loss. Also assuming that the cards are shuffled each deal (as I understood from an earlier post), this error should not change the win/loss record accuracy. If that is not correct, then there was 1 strategy error.

I would like to know if this data is now in a useful format, and if not, please advise what is lacking and/or can be provided from my records.



EDIT: Updated the table above using Rome's formulae earlier in this thread. Am looking at overall results: Specifically, SD sqrt(1600)*(1.1*22.1875) = $976.25, showing -1.44 SD's total with a loss of -1405.00. Would appreciate knowing I calculated these correctly, if anyone has the time. Thanks!

Was thinking I could simply divide my total loss by average SD of 244.06, which gave me a much larger SD of -5.756722, which is what it FELT like, but I think that's an incorrect calculation. Not sure.

Whatever the correct math is, dumping 500 hands straight (after the game dropped out and refreshed, and I had to sign back in and reload the game) felt like a deliberate re-set into a different probability matrix. The turnaround was overwhelming.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
teddys
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May 11th, 2015 at 1:28:22 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

A friend of mine who is not a forum member has Emailed me dozens of times insisting he got cheated by M2G. Here is his play summary.

He says he flat bet $50, except for when he was near zero he bet less to have double/split money. Here is a summary of his play:

Number of bets: 222
Average bet $48.62
Expected win: 1.33 units
Actual win: -61.19 units
Loss due to "bad luck": 62.52 units
One standard deviation: 16.39 units
Number standard deviations down: 3.81
Probability of luck this bad or worse = 1 in 14,658 (assuming flat betting, which was nearly the case)

There is a lot of circumstantial evidence that something fishy is going on. Still, I wish I could get my hands on a bloody glove.

Jesus Christ, he went down $3,000.00 in 222 $50 bets? That's like a half an hour of betting. I have NEVER seen a result that bad, live or electronic. That's not even within the bell curve! Considering my results were anectdotally just as bad, and considering Romes and BBB's results, I am 70% sure this blackjack game is gaffed. I am not willing to be as equivocal as Mike.

Quote: beachbumbabs

Whatever the correct math is, dumping 500 hands straight (after the game dropped out and refreshed, and I had to sign back in and reload the game) felt like a deliberate re-set into a different probability matrix. The turnaround was overwhelming.

I agree. It seemed to kick you out and then when you came back, it went REALLY far south, quickly.
"Dice, verily, are armed with goads and driving-hooks, deceiving and tormenting, causing grievous woe." -Rig Veda 10.34.4
Romes
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May 11th, 2015 at 1:34:55 PM permalink
Quote: beachbumbabs

...
EDIT: Updated the table above using Rome's formulae earlier in this thread. Am looking at overall results: Specifically, SD sqrt(1600)*(1.1*22.1875) = $976.25, showing -1.44 SD's total with a loss of -1405.00. Would appreciate knowing I calculated these correctly, if anyone has the time. Thanks!

Was thinking I could simply divide my total loss by average SD of 244.06, which gave me a much larger SD of -5.756722, which is what it FELT like, but I think that's an incorrect calculation. Not sure.

Whatever the correct math is, dumping 500 hands straight (after the game dropped out and refreshed, and I had to sign back in and reload the game) felt like a deliberate re-set into a different probability matrix. The turnaround was overwhelming.


Babs, I believe you did it correctly. Your "One Hand Standard Deviation" on any 1 hand is 1.1*AvgBet. Then, to find your SD for any number of hands (such as your total number of hands) it is SD = Sqrt(NumHands)*OneHandSD which yes is the same as SD = Sqrt(NumHands)(1.1*AvgBet).

I don't see anywhere on your char what your number of hands was, but I think you stated your average bet was 22.1875, correct? You can also get your average bet from your total action divided by the number of events. I.e. $10,000 worth of action over 100 hands, your average bet = 10,000/100 = $100.
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
beachbumbabs
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May 11th, 2015 at 1:35:20 PM permalink
Quote: teddys

Jesus Christ, he went down $3,000.00 in 222 $50 bets? That's like a half an hour of betting. I have NEVER seen a result that bad, live or electronic. That's not even within the bell curve! Considering my results were anectdotally just as bad, and considering Romes and BBB's results, I am 70% sure this blackjack game is gaffed. I am not willing to be as equivocal as Mike.



Yeah, if you isolate out my last 500 hands (a not insignificant sample size), I lost $3.117.50 on an average bet of $19, for an SD of 467.338207, and that's -6.67076 SD's.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
beachbumbabs
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May 11th, 2015 at 1:37:24 PM permalink
Thanks, Romes! It was stated above the table. Each line was 100 bets, flat-bet at the amount listed.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
Romes
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May 11th, 2015 at 1:44:39 PM permalink
Quote: beachbumbabs

Thanks, Romes! It was stated above the table. Each line was 100 bets, flat-bet at the amount listed.


Ah, my mistake for missing that! I was too drawn immediately to the data =P.
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
Ibeatyouraces
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May 11th, 2015 at 1:45:39 PM permalink
Quote: teddys

...I am 70% sure this blackjack game is gaffed...


I'm infinity% sure!
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
beachbumbabs
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May 11th, 2015 at 2:30:30 PM permalink
Well, my losing ways continue. Had some money still in the account (still do), so...

100 hands each row, flat-betting $2.00.

GameUnit size in $Starting BR in $Ending BR in $Net $$Net UnitsSD in $SD result
Classic2
228.30
132.30
-96.00
-48
$22.00
-4.363636
Classic2
132.30
96.30
-36.00
-18
$22.00
-1.636364
Classic2
96.30
25.30
-71.00
-35.5
$22.00
-3.227273


The first hundred included a streak of 26 non-wins, with 2 pushes, 4 surrenders, 3 lost doubles, and 8 player busts. Bleah.

EDIT: Added 200 more hands to the chart above to keep the stats together. Probably too broke to continue, but that's 1900 hands.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
teddys
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May 11th, 2015 at 2:35:18 PM permalink
Quote: beachbumbabs

Well, my losing ways continue. Had some money still in the account (still do), so...

100 hands, flat-betting $2.00.

GameUnit size in $Starting BR in $Ending BR in $Net $$Net UnitsSD in $SD result
Classic2
228.30
132.30
-96.00
-48
$22.00
-4.363636


This included a streak of 26 non-wins, with 2 pushes, 4 surrenders, 3 lost doubles, and 8 player busts. Bleah.

I just threw up a little.

AceOfSpades says don't even bother posting until you lose 30 hands in a row. He wants to keep his record intact.
"Dice, verily, are armed with goads and driving-hooks, deceiving and tormenting, causing grievous woe." -Rig Veda 10.34.4
AxelWolf
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May 11th, 2015 at 3:21:39 PM permalink
Quote: CrystalMath

I deposited $25 this morning, but I did not take any bonuses. I played blackjack for $1, then switched back and forth between blackjack and video poker. I feel like I got a fair game, and my balance is now $110, after a few four of a kinds. It could be that the games are gaffed when you are playing with a bonus or at higher bet levels, but I'm not going to find out.

Now, I'm trying to cashout and it doesn't give me any payment options. I've opened a support ticket, so I'll see how that goes.

For anyone who plays here, I recommend downloading a program called Fiddler. It allows you to capture web traffic. When you are done playing, you can use the search function and find "blackjack-response". Make sure you choose the option to select matches and to search binaries. Then, right click on one of the sessions and select "Decode Selected Sessions." Then, right click again and choose Save >> Selected Sessions >> as Text to save the log to a file. The results will look something like this:

Quote:


...
{"blackjack-response":{"next":"WAN","payout":{"open":"2500","bet":"100","win":"0","close":"2400","bonus":"0","real":"2500"},"complete":"false","dealer":{"card":{"name":"six","up":"true","suit":"SPADE","keep":"false","winner":"false"},"number":"1","win":"0","bet":"0","score":"6"},"hand":{"card":[{"name":"queen","up":"true","suit":"DIAMOND","keep":"false","winner":"false"},{"name":"five","up":"true","suit":"HEART","keep":"false","winner":"false"}],"number":"1","win":"200","bet":"100","history":{"action":"bet"},"options":{"option":[{"name":"hit","@attributes":{"conditional":"false"}},{"name":"stand","@attributes":{"conditional":"false"}}]},"score":"15"},"player-cash-account":{"balance-after-bet":{"total":"2400","real-total":"2400","bonus":"0"},"balance-start":{"total":"2500","real-total":"2500","bonus":"0"},"balance-end":{"total":"2400","real-total":"2400","bonus":"0"}},"balances":{"total":"2500","bonus":"0","real":"2500"}}}
...
{"blackjack-response":{"next":"WAN","payout":{"open":"2400","bet":"0","win":"200","close":"2600","bonus":"0","real":"2400"},"complete":"true","dealer":{"card":[{"name":"six","up":"true","suit":"SPADE","keep":"false","winner":"false"},{"name":"king","up":"true","suit":"DIAMOND","keep":"false","winner":"false"},{"name":"eight","up":"true","suit":"HEART","keep":"false","winner":"false"}],"number":"1","win":"0","bet":"0","score":"24"},"hand":{"card":[{"name":"queen","up":"true","suit":"DIAMOND","keep":"false","winner":"false"},{"name":"five","up":"true","suit":"HEART","keep":"false","winner":"false"}],"number":"1","win":"200","bet":"100","history":{"action":["bet","stand"]},"options":{"option":{"name":"bet","@attributes":{"conditional":"false"}}},"score":"15"},"gamble-info":{"odds":{"odd":[{"id":"ONE_IN_TWO","payout":"400","options":{"option":["RED","BLACK"]}},{"id":"ONE_IN_FOUR","payout":"800","options":{"option":["CLUB","DIAMOND","HEART","SPADE"]}}]},"history-cards":""},"balances":{"total":"2400","bonus":"0","real":"2400"},"player-cash-account":{"balance-start":{"total":"2400","real-total":"2400","bonus":"0"},"balance-end":{"total":"2600","real-total":"2600","bonus":"0"},"balance-after-bet":{"total":"2400","real-total":"2400","bonus":"0"}}}}



This will contain all of the information necessary to analyze the fairness of the game.

data used while betting $1 is not reliable. I have been saying this for a long time.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
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May 11th, 2015 at 3:36:25 PM permalink
I hereby make a pronouncement:

The Wizard has met an opponent worthy of his steel!

Meaning:


There is a great challenge astore for the Wizard to prove this outfit is indeed manipulating. Can it be done or shall WoV have just provided a bunch of scalps for the site's wall ... not to be avenged!!!!!!!!!
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
CrystalMath
CrystalMath
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May 11th, 2015 at 3:42:38 PM permalink
I agree, Axel. I was just sharing a method to track the data.
I heart Crystal Math.
AxelWolf
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May 11th, 2015 at 3:45:17 PM permalink
Quote: mustangsally

you mean honest in the games it offers as the games to me do not look fair (by gaming definition that IS).
you play games all the time that are not fair but are honest, you hope.

so are the Wizards
you mean are not honest

ok
enough said

looks to me no one in this thread knows the max bet to make per round with a bankroll of say $1500 and an edge of 0.71%

I bet $9 (i round up)
the Wizard knows the answer (or knew the answer at one time)
and >=$20 is way too high and just increases the RoR but some will be luckier than others.

"say it is not so Sally!"

"the casino cheats!"
a voice crying in the wilderness...
"ask to see the code that is behind the casino games in question."

"NO WAY"
"do not look behind that curtain!"

over bet your bankroll and cry cheating (not all cheat all the time maybe, imo)
an open option to use
an event of 1 in 100,000 never happens (probability = 0)
an event of 1 in 100 million never happens either, not every week around the world

OK
time for tea and "Meet the Wife"
Go Freddie

found this 2
calculate the unit bankroll required when having the edge
looks to be used all over the internet and is messy as always in me Excel


You know what I meant to say. I was asking if you think the software is cheating/gaffed or however you want to phrase it.

Yes, so are everyone's math/statistics/ simulations online, but not everyone wants people to lose money like you do.

Its not crying wolf when the wolf was just in the next town, and now you keep seeing dead half eaten pigs in the woods. Its obvious to me your trying to use math/simulations/statistics to encourage and assure the kids its ok to play in the woods.

I needed 1 visit and $200 to this casino to know I shouldn't return. Not because I ran bad, I have ran bad many times in my life on much bigger edges. Its because every time i independently suspected an online casino was cheating, it turns out it was. Thats what originally made me find wizzard of odds.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
AxelWolf
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May 11th, 2015 at 3:52:13 PM permalink
Quote: CrystalMath

I agree, Axel. I was just sharing a method to track the data.

I know, you know, you even say it in your post. I just was hoping others will see it and realize it as well.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
RS
RS
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May 11th, 2015 at 3:59:24 PM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

Its obvious to me your trying to use math/simulations/statistics to encourage and assure the kids its ok to play in the woods.



That's most of what she does.



BTW, those of you who lost -- were you betting the 50/50 red black or whatever stuff? Or was it 100% CLASSIC blackjack?
beachbumbabs
beachbumbabs
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May 11th, 2015 at 4:06:19 PM permalink
Quote: RS

That's most of what she does.



BTW, those of you who lost -- were you betting the 50/50 red black or whatever stuff? Or was it 100% CLASSIC blackjack?



I am personally terrible at 50/50 rebets, so I only played BJ. Also didn't want those results "tainting" my report.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
teddys
teddys
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May 11th, 2015 at 4:31:15 PM permalink
Quote: RS

That's most of what she does.



BTW, those of you who lost -- were you betting the 50/50 red black or whatever stuff? Or was it 100% CLASSIC blackjack?

Surrender/Classic blackjack exclusively, never for less than $20. When I bet above $20 I played ROYAL blackjack.

$20-$30 flat bets, or even more, is well within my comfort zone. But this was a massacre.
"Dice, verily, are armed with goads and driving-hooks, deceiving and tormenting, causing grievous woe." -Rig Veda 10.34.4
mustangsally
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May 11th, 2015 at 5:23:34 PM permalink
Quote: teddys

Jesus Christ, he went down $3,000.00 in 222 $50 bets?
That's like a half an hour of betting.

yep
60 freekin betting units
Quote: teddys

I have NEVER seen a result that bad, live or electronic.
That's not even within the bell curve!

sure it is!
using Don Schlesinger's trip RoR formula that is available to the public
i show with an edge of .71%
SD = 1.1
222 rounds played
RoR = 1 in 5,680

when the
SD = 1.15
RoR = 1 in 2,997

so
SD matters

the Wizard can calculate this 4u too
(i think he would rather do something else)

who knows Kelly betting?
not Kellie betting

imo, the Wizard should now buy-in for a cool $10,000 and make $50 flat bets for 222 rounds
the chance to bust that is abouts 1 in 1.08211E+34
no way, he would Kelly bet for sure


Oh o o
are you the one, one, i thinks so,
that kept over-betting your small buy-ins at the craps table and likes bears and

Ah, maybe that was another teddy

this is so entertaining
I Heart Vi Hart
mustangsally
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May 11th, 2015 at 5:27:37 PM permalink
Quote: beachbumbabs

I am personally terrible at 50/50 rebets, so I only played BJ.
Also didn't want those results "tainting" my report.

what really matters is the color of your nails
while all this was going on

you... yellow neon
no lucks neededs
I Heart Vi Hart
mustangsally
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May 11th, 2015 at 5:37:32 PM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

You know what I meant to say. I was asking if you think the software is cheating/gaffed or however you want to phrase it.

i say ALL online software cheats, but not all the time
just my opinion

it is really how good the programmer is

Quote: AxelWolf

Yes, so are everyone's math/statistics/ simulations online, but not everyone wants people to lose money like you do.

i am not the only one
and for me it makes life so simple

Quote: AxelWolf

Its not crying wolf when the wolf was just in the next town, and now you keep seeing dead half eaten pigs in the woods. Its obvious to me your trying to use math/simulations/statistics to encourage and assure the kids its ok to play in the woods.

i did not think i used a simulation as the math is very easy to do
maybe i added one sim for color

I say not one person should play online any where
until the US get their act together and that should make the playing field fair.

Quote: AxelWolf

I needed 1 visit and $200 to this casino to know I shouldn't return.

i know you are special
maybe i do not tell you that often enough
Quote: AxelWolf

Not because I ran bad, I have ran bad many times in my life on much bigger edges. Its because every time i independently suspected an online casino was cheating, it turns out it was. Thats what originally made me find wizzard of odds.

and now he wants you to play online
more often and that is ok for him to ask and suggest too

you know
Brian Wilson of the Beach Boys used to write songs in a sand box in his living room, so the story goes
I love his 2 daughters from his first wife, I love her too
she is so cute!
even today
I Heart Vi Hart
Wizard
Administrator
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May 11th, 2015 at 7:29:51 PM permalink
Quote: mustangsally

so standard deviation for this game = 1.1
i would have thought it to be much higher at least 1.16 or maybe even 1.2



I estimated it lower because of the no re-splitting rule and lots of surrenders. I'm all ears as to a more precise value.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
AxelWolf
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May 11th, 2015 at 8:21:21 PM permalink
Quote: mustangsally

i say ALL online software cheats, but not all the time
just my opinion

it is really how good the programmer is

i am not the only one
and for me it makes life so simple

i did not think i used a simulation as the math is very easy to do
maybe i added one sim for color

I say not one person should play online any where
until the US get their act together and that should make the playing field fair.

i know you are special
maybe i do not tell you that often enough

Quote: AxelWolf

Not because I ran bad, I have ran bad many times in my life on much bigger edges. Its because every time i independently suspected an online casino was cheating, it turns out it was. Thats what originally made me find wizzard of odds.

and now he wants you to play online
more often and that is ok for him to ask and suggest too

you know
Brian Wilson of the Beach Boys used to write songs in a sand box in his living room, so the story goes
I love his 2 daughters from his first wife, I love her too
she is so cute!
even today

Im glad we are on the same page, with one exception... I don't want evryone to lose. The only people I want to lose are people I dislike and that's not many people TBH In the RW I'd rather not think about people I dislike and concentrate on people I do like.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
rudeboyoi
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May 11th, 2015 at 8:46:08 PM permalink
I've enjoyed following this thread. It's another example of anarchy in action. How to deal with fraud in a stateless society. The other recent example here being the strictlyAP welching incident.
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