Blackjack game with 0.75% player advantage
Oh, nothing to say?Quote: AxelWolf
that is ok (adds to the count)
no reason to be shy
many bet against the current trend and lose more than their shirt
oh, now i see, you may need a shirt and maybe more
that is a simple request in Las Vegas (Nevada, not NM)
btw
the expected number of 2 runs in 30 attempts = 3.75
the mode = 4
here is sim data
group middle freq freq/100
---------------------------------------------
-0.5 <= x < 0.50 0.00 20234 0.20%
0.50 <= x < 1.50 1.00 252978 2.53%
1.50 <= x < 2.50 2.00 1192087 11.92%
2.50 <= x < 3.50 3.00 2709038 27.09%
3.50 <= x < 4.50 4.00 3179469 31.79%
4.50 <= x < 5.50 5.00 1949824 19.50%
5.50 <= x < 6.50 6.00 604251 6.04%
6.50 <= x < 7.50 7.00 86951 0.87%
7.50 <= x < 8.50 8.00 5092 0.05%
8.50 <= x < 9.50 9.00 76 0.00%
---------------------------------------------
grouped data
items: 10000000
minimum value: 0.00
first quartile: 3.00
median: 4.00
third quartile: 5.00
maximum value: 9.00
mean value: 3.75 <<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<----------
midrange: 4.50
range: 9.00
interquartile range: 2.00
mean abs deviation: 0.98
sample variance (n): 1.47
sample variance (n-1): 1.47
sample std dev (n): 1.21
sample std dev (n-1): 1.21
---------------------------------------------
cumulative
---------------------------------------------
-0.5 <= x < 0.50 0.00 20234 0.20%
0.50 <= x < 1.50 1.00 273212 2.73%
1.50 <= x < 2.50 2.00 1465299 14.65%
2.50 <= x < 3.50 3.00 4174337 41.74%
3.50 <= x < 4.50 4.00 7353806 73.54%
4.50 <= x < 5.50 5.00 9303630 93.04%
5.50 <= x < 6.50 6.00 9907881 99.08%
6.50 <= x < 7.50 7.00 9994832 99.95%
7.50 <= x < 8.50 8.00 9999924 100.00%
8.50 <= x < 9.50 9.00 10000000 100.00%
because some think it is more impressive to run a sim (not counting any errors of course)
than to do the math
i do both to catch me mistakes (mis-takes)
girls night out!
go Angels!
score more runs
Quote: IbeatyouracesCan you just imagine the streaks AceofSpades would get playing this?
The dealer just got 9 blackjacks in a row. Is that unusual in a double deck game? :-)
Quote: 1BBThe dealer just got 9 blackjacks in a row. Is that unusual in a double deck game? :-)
Not if using euchre decks :-)
I will say though, I've been involved in a high count where the dealer got 7 in a row. Fortunately insurance was warranted and the ace was up on 5 of them.
Quote: RomesIf we have the Wizards Protection (denoted in the first pot) and we've mathematically proved the games can't be beat (and half of them straight CHEAT, like their slots and JoB) then there should be some way, correct?
I was not thinking about the wizard protection so hopefully you are right.
Not to defend them but I have a question. If you say you are down 8 sds for 1 session; is that selective math? Shouldn't the only thing that matters be the overall total? My math and statistics suck so this is a real question. Wouldn't 1 session be the same as me sitting at a table and after losing 10 out of 11 say something is wrong because I am way outside of the curve?
depends on the shape of the curveQuote: GWAEIf you say you are down 8 sds for 1 session; is that selective math?
if it is normal then !!!!
what normal may look like
if it is not normal and looks to be on crack
then the numbers of ev and sd are meaningless
what not normal and looks to be on crack may look like
seems the Wizard (and many others - i did NOT name names)
has let the people down on normal distribution understanding
can't win them all!
11 is you sample size?Quote: GWAEWouldn't 1 session be the same as me sitting at a table and after losing 10 out of 11 say something is wrong because I am way outside of the curve?
Houston, we need a Nurse in Room 7, NOW!
Quote: RomesJesus babs... So in 300 hands, FLAT BETTING $15/hand, you lost $1,305?? 87 unit downswing in 300 hands flat betting...
EV = (300)(15)(.0075) = +$33.75
SD = Sqrt(300)*(1.1)(15) = Sqrt(300)*(16.5) = $285.79
Thus, you're a little over 4.5 SD's from your expected value. Anything over 3 and I consider it pretty rare and should pretty much never happen. Considering I was out 7 SD one session and 8 SD another, this should be mathematical proof that the game cheats. Perhaps it doesn't cheat EVERY session, but this should not be happening in a supposed player advantage game. I officially call shenanagains.
And on a surrender game no less!
Quote: RomesSo I just got an e-mail back from Support about my "Straight not paying" issue in JoB:
Since you already have a dialogue going with them about this, can please ask them if this rule that A-2-3-4-5 is not a straight applies to their other poker-based games as well.
Thanks.
| Royal flush | 800 | 494,149,020 | 0.000025 | 0.019832 |
| Straight flush | 50 | 1,922,873,904 | 0.000096 | 0.004823 |
| Four of a kind | 25 | 47,127,024,588 | 0.002364 | 0.059106 |
| Full house | 9 | 229,682,770,092 | 0.011523 | 0.103703 |
| Flush | 6 | 216,538,813,956 | 0.010863 | 0.065179 |
| Straight | 4 | 204,916,873,572 | 0.010280 | 0.041121 |
| Three of a kind | 3 | 1,486,329,874,824 | 0.074565 | 0.223696 |
| Two pair | 2 | 2,581,692,027,264 | 0.129517 | 0.259034 |
| Jacks or better | 1 | 4,305,098,939,220 | 0.215976 | 0.215976 |
| Nothing | 0 | 10,859,427,170,760 | 0.544790 | 0.000000 |
| Total | 19,933,230,517,200 | 1.000000 | 0.992471 |
In other words, a reduction in the return of 0.30%.
Quote: WizardSince you already have a dialogue going with them about this, can please ask them if this rule that A-2-3-4-5 is not a straight applies to their other poker-based games as well.
Thanks.
I inquired and will update you when I know something.
Can you take the data that's been provided thus far for blackjack and see what the probabilities of it are? I know they're kind of scattered, but I'm sure you could at a minimum see how much some are up, and others are down, to derive an "average bet", "number of hands", "avg advantage", and overall win/loss. This way you could leverage all of our results to find our group EV and SD's. When we find that as a group we're SD's in to the negative, wouldn't that be rather indicative of an answer?
The BJ game doesn't appear to 'cheat' every time. Some people have had winning sessions (babs) but then turn around and lose 87 units in 300 hands flat betting (4.5 SD's to the negative). In my own experiences I believe I'm "combined" about 5-6 SD's to the negative, which to me is all the math one should need. SD's cover your "bad luck"... 3 SD's is 99.9%. To be out somewhere near 6 is downright impossible =/.
Quote: RomesCan you take the data that's been provided thus far for blackjack and see what the probabilities of it are? I know they're kind of scattered, but I'm sure you could at a minimum see how much some are up, and others are down, to derive an "average bet", "number of hands", "avg advantage", and overall win/loss. This way you could leverage all of our results to find our group EV and SD's. When we find that as a group we're SD's in to the negative, wouldn't that be rather indicative of an answer?
The BJ game doesn't appear to 'cheat' every time. Some people have had winning sessions (babs) but then turn around and lose 87 units in 300 hands flat betting (4.5 SD's to the negative). In my own experiences I believe I'm "combined" about 5-6 SD's to the negative, which to me is all the math one should need. SD's cover your "bad luck"... 3 SD's is 99.9%. To be out somewhere near 6 is downright impossible =/.
It isn't that I don't want to help, but it is sloppy statistics to arbitrarily combine separate player experiences. The way to make a case is to formulate a hypothesis of how they are cheating before playing, then gather evidence, then evaluate the evidence against the hypothesis.
If you're able to tell me how much you would have bet and lost assuming you flat bet the entire time, I'd be happy to evaluate that.
Quote: teddysI just made the last $200 deposit plus a $1100 match for $1310 total. Flat betting $40, I went up to about $1600 and then everything went south quickly. Busted out. I'm done with this casino. I'd be interested to see how other people do. I lost $900.
And this is for a supposed player advantage game... How many hands did you play?
how large was the average bet and the starting bankroll?Quote: RomesAnd this is for a supposed player advantage game... How many hands did you play?
playing with a small advantage requires a very large bankroll and the proper size bets
who knows what those values are?
using Alan Krigman's Risk of ruin calculator in ExcelQuote: teddysI just made the last $200 deposit plus a $1100 match for $1310 total. Flat betting $40, I went up to about $1600 and then everything went south quickly. Busted out.
edge: 0.0075
std deviation: 1.15
bankroll: $1,310
bet size: 40
win goal: $1,310
just to double your start bank
RoR = 40.8%
the chance to turn 1310 into 1610 is abouts 84.7%
schools out!
Don't give a shit what the "math" says, the common sense voice in my head says "DON'T BET ONLINE."
Quote: HowManyDon't give a shit what the "math" says,
Official warning for profanity.
All sessions were 100 hands.
All sessions were flat bet for 1 unit.
All decisions were determined using the strategy chart on page 1 of this thread.
500 hands were played on day 1. 1100 hands were played on day 2.
Some other games were tried on day 1 after the end of the BJ session, which is why the total changes from row 5 to row 6.
| Game | Unit size in $ | Starting BR in $ | Ending BR in $ | Net $$ | Net Units |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Classic | 10 | 1754.00 | 1804.00 | 50.00 | 5.0 |
| Royal | 25 | 1773.30 | 1910.80 | 137.50 | 5.5 |
| Royal | 25 | 1910.80 | 2360.80 | 450.00 | 18.0 |
| Royal | 25 | 2360.80 | 2635.80 | 275.00 | 11.0 |
| Royal | 25 | 2635.80 | 2598.30 | -37.50 | -1.5 |
| Royal(2nd day) | 25 | 2508.30 | 2495.80 | -12.50 | -.5 |
| Royal | 25 | 2495.80 | 2858.30 | 362.50 | 14.5 |
| Royal | 25 | 2858.30 | 3245.80 | 387.50 | 15.5 |
| Royal | 25 | 3245.80 | 3483.30 | 237.50 | 9.5 |
| Royal | 25 | 3483.30 | 3433.30 | -50.00 | -2.0 |
| Royal | 25 | 3433.30 | 3345.80 | -87.50 | -3.5 |
| Royal | 25 | 3345.80 | 2733.30 | -612.50 | -24.5 |
| Royal | 25 | 2733.30 | 1533.30 | -1200.00 | -48.0 |
| Surrender | 15 | 1533.30 | 1075.80 | -457.50 | -30.5 |
| Surrender | 15 | 1075.80 | 528.30 | -547.50 | -36.5 |
| Surrender | 15 | 528.30 | 228.30 | -300.00 | -20.0 |
| TOTALS | 1600 hands |
I have this data also by unit & $$ won/loss every 10 hands, and the cards initially dealt, decisions made, and result for each hand individually.
There was 1 inadvertent strategy error, when "hit" was clicked instead of "stand", resulting in a loss/player bust. However, assuming the card taken inadvertently was the card the dealer would have received, the hand would still have been a loss. Also assuming that the cards are shuffled each deal (as I understood from an earlier post), this error should not change the win/loss record accuracy. If that is not correct, then there was 1 strategy error.
I would like to know if this data is now in a useful format, and if not, please advise what is lacking and/or can be provided from my records.
That's the type of attitude/ black & white thinking that can cost you thousands and keep people from advancing . Here is something that was phenomenal. kengam77 explains it best. https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/online/4189-the-greatest-bonus-promotion-in-online-gambling-history/2/#post52446Quote: HowManyNo chance I will EVER bet online.
Don't give a shit what the "math" says, the common sense voice in my head says "DON'T BET ONLINE."
Everyone that I know made EZ $$$$$$ and got paid. There is/has been many more good plays online. Many people have made 10's of thousands online
I think Zuga got his start by playing stuff online.
People should be thanking the Wizard regardless. It could/could've turned out to be spectacular. Most Everyone knows there's a risk online. I don't think anyone who played this really gives a hoot about the small investment they put up.
You might play 10 different opportunities and lose, but it only takes one and you could make thousands.
There's people who go around missing good stuff in B&M casinos because they think the way you do about regular casinos.
Tune in later to find out if I'm able to stay above water, withdraw, and get paid! :)
Quote: AxelWolfThat's the type of attitude/ black & white thinking that can cost you thousands and keep people from advancing . Here is something that was phenomenal. kengam77 explains it best. https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/online/4189-the-greatest-bonus-promotion-in-online-gambling-history/2/#post52446
Everyone that I know made EZ $$$$$$ and got paid. There is/has been many more good plays online. Many people have made 10's of thousands online
I think Zuga got his start by playing stuff online.
People should be thanking the Wizard regardless. It could/could've turned out to be spectacular. Most Everyone knows there's a risk online. I don't think anyone who played this really gives a hoot about the small investment they put up.
You might play 10 different opportunities and lose, but it only takes one and you could make thousands.
There's people who go around missing good stuff in B&M casinos because they think the way you do about regular casinos.
Good read
Quote: 'withdrawl' on m2g website
Transaction Information
Currency *:
Amount *: .
Bank Information
Bank name *: SWIFT:
Bank city *: Routing number:
Bank state *: IBAN:
Account type: Account number:
Apparently I can cash out now (I think?). I'm a little unsure about this wire-transfer stuff. If I supply this information, can I get f*cked in the d*ck? ie: They take all the money out of my account? And wtf is SWIFT and IBAN?
Quote: RSWait WTF -- it wants to do a wire transfer?
Apparently I can cash out now (I think?). I'm a little unsure about this wire-transfer stuff. If I supply this information, can I get f*cked in the d*ck? ie: They take all the money out of my account? And wtf is SWIFT and IBAN?
Well done!!!!!!!! Let us know the scale of it and how you did it.
SWIFT and IBAN just identify your bank.
In the UK, we have 'The Direct Debit Guarantee' That would cover any risk that they suck money out (Like a chargeback process on your Cheque account). It's all the sort of info that's available any time you hand over a cheque.
Quote: RomesI'm down my entire bonus ($1500) in about 1.5 hours of play with an average bet of $10 (bet re sizing with the bankroll). I only did the "double up" 15 times when I learned that a) it's clearly rigged (betting any amount of $20 or more), and b) it only pays 1-1 instead of the advertised 2-1.
Quick Math
Average bet: $10.
Standard Deviation in Blackjack: 1.1
SD for 1 hand: 10*1.1 = 11
I'm confused on how it says I've only put ~$2,000 worth of action through, but assuming that's true then I've played approximately 181 hands, which seems wayyyy short considering I've been clicking rather fast over my 1.5 hours of play. Even so, that means my SD for 181 hands = Sqrt(181)*11 = 148.32.
EV = (NumOfEvents)(AvgBet)(advantage) = (181)(10)(.0075) = $13.58.
SD = +- $148.32.
...Yet I'm down $1,500. This is like 10 Standard Deviations out of the norm. Allowing that I did the double up and lost some winnings (15 times, half of which was $2 half of which was $40) I should have another ~$200. So let's pretend I'm only down $1,300... That's still 8 Standard Deviations out. I.E. Impossible??? Wizard, could you confirm my math?
Just eyeballing it, your math looks right, based on the assumptions made. However, you probably did play more and the doubles do muddy the waters.
Can I trouble you to ask them for a log file. Once on chat they said one can be requested by Email. He didn't say the request would be honored but it doesn't hurt to try. Once I have the log file I can do an exact calculation.
Quote: teddysBecause I am a masochist I deposited another $400 cash and claimed a 350% bonus. I have now run my bankroll up to $3640, so I am up $1830 including the deductible bonus. So I'm up overall over my cash deposits of $1300 assuming I was able to cash out now.
Tune in later to find out if I'm able to stay above water, withdraw, and get paid! :)
I don't believe in luck so I'll say "may you be on the right side of the bell curve."
Bankroll is down to $1700. I know this isn't as exciting as Ace's trip reports.Quote: WizardQuote: teddysBecause I am a masochist I deposited another $400 cash and claimed a 350% bonus. I have now run my bankroll up to $3640, so I am up $1830 including the deductible bonus. So I'm up overall over my cash deposits of $1300 assuming I was able to cash out now.
Tune in later to find out if I'm able to stay above water, withdraw, and get paid! :)
I don't believe in luck so I'll say "may you be on the right side of the bell curve."
Quote: teddysBankroll is $777. TS to tower, Mayday! Mayday!
Good money after bad.
Look on the bright side. When it reaches $0 that will count as meeting the wagering requirements, so you can draw it out.
Quote: teddysBankroll is $777. TS to tower, Mayday! Mayday!
Tower to TS pull up! Are you taking the beating on BJ?
Yes. I'm down to $250 now. Something seems fishy about this game, I can't put my finger on it. Is anybody winning?Quote: rainmanTower to TS pull up! Are you taking the beating on BJ?
RS may have won.Quote: teddysYes. I'm down to $250 now. Something seems fishy about this game, I can't put my finger on it. Is anybody winning?
Nothing fishy according to Sally and her math and simulations.
Anyone willing to sign up play and record their sessions? There's various programs that will record your desktop or whatever.
I may be willing to put up the money and take the action if someone is willing to do the work and they can follow perfect strategy .
PM me we can work out the details.
During this time I'm also willing to make a side wager on double up red/black with anyone who thinks its fair. make me an offer where you would have a +ev situation under normal fair circumstances. If you think it's fair you should have no problem taking the action and receiving a 5% advantage on a coin flip. remember the game is +ev off the top and you get bonuses and someone else would do the work.
we can make the bet prior to play. Then see it unfold via youtube.
my Mom loves fish and she gets that in an hour from now - it IS Mom's day at my house!Quote: AxelWolfRS may have won.
Nothing fishy according to Sally and her math and simulations.
where is the Wizard on helping his followers
Are these BJ players over-betting their bankroll?
Sally?
(Sally is watching her Angles play and score runs - they JUST scored 2 of them)
what IS the required bankroll for this AP
meal
to have a small RoR, say, 1 in 1000
is this Kelly?
or
Kelley?
or
Kellie?
who likes Blackjack experts?
where are they?
another slaughter
got to love them
I am now hungry for more
Ak, okQuote: beachbumbabsBankroll was determined by depositing $200.00, matched by a 777% deposit, for a starting total of 1754.00.
i thought bankroll (proper bankroll for an AP meal)
is determined by the edge,
avg bet, number of rounds to play and standard deviation and the possible risk of ruin
i also was under the impression that a lifetime bankroll could also be found
1754 sure feels...
Boy, i guess i was really wrong there!
Call Ahigh!
dinner at 3pm
added:
one word to learn about
VARIANCE
Please give your opinion if you think this casino is fair or not? Do you think people should continue to play it under the premise its fair?Quote: mustangsallymy Mom loves fish and she gets that in an hour from now - it IS Mom's day at my house!
where is the Wizard on helping his followers
Are these BJ players over-betting their bankroll?
Sally?
(Sally is watching her Angles play and score runs - they JUST scored 2 of them)
what IS the required bankroll for this AP
meal
to have a small RoR, say, 1 in 1000
is this Kelly?
or
Kelley?
or
Kellie?
who likes Blackjack experts?
where are they?
another slaughter
got to love them
I am now hungry for more
Your math, statistics and simulations are meaningless when it comes to online gambling. There's a high probability many online casinos are not fair.
You can claim everything is statistically within reason, we cant argue with that because we don't have enough data to prove different.
Hopefully anyone listening to you knows that you said something along the lines how you like and hope people lose their bankroll (a few times I believe)
Unless enough people are willing to play enough hands @ $20 or more at this casino we have no way of knowing. We can only use some logic and a gut feeling.
I don't encourage people to use gut feelings often, and never for dumb betting systems, however if it wasn't for some people using their gut feelings we wouldn't know about all the gaffed machines online and even previous gaffed machines in NV casinos.
I would hate to see people lose first and find out later it was gaffed to all hell.
I'm not anti online casinos. I have said this many times. There are good opportunities online. I encourage people to take a chance on seemingly good situations, but use caution. Online should be guilty until proven otherwise. Case After case, after case of online cheating has been proven and that's just the ones we know of.
If you think its fair put your money where your mouth is. Im willing to bet its not. I'M rooting that it is fair. If it is fair, anything I would lose betting its not fair, I could make up for playing.
Quote: teddysYes. I'm down to $250 now. Something seems fishy about this game, I can't put my finger on it. Is anybody winning?
Can you request a log file of your blackjack play. Please send to me when you get it.
| Session | Number Bets | Total bet | Total returned | Win | Win (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 14 | $560.00 | $720.00 | $160.00 | 28.57% |
| 11 | 45 | $900.00 | $1,030.00 | $130.00 | 14.44% |
| 10 | 21 | $210.00 | $260.00 | $50.00 | 23.81% |
| 9 | 36 | $770.00 | $760.00 | -$10.00 | -1.30% |
| 8 | 68 | $680.00 | $755.00 | $75.00 | 11.03% |
| 7 | 37 | $120.50 | $110.00 | -$10.50 | -8.71% |
| 6 | 81 | $810.00 | $750.00 | -$60.00 | -7.41% |
| 5 | 327 | $3,270.00 | $3,495.00 | $225.00 | 6.88% |
| 4 | 258 | $2,580.00 | $2,260.00 | -$320.00 | -12.40% |
| 3 | 86 | $2,888.00 | $1,887.50 | -$1,000.50 | -34.64% |
| 2 | 11 | $275.00 | $350.00 | $75.00 | 27.27% |
| 1 | 281 | $7,025.00 | $6,862.50 | -$162.50 | -2.31% |
| Total | 1265 | $20,088.50 | $19,240.00 | -$848.50 | -4.22% |
It is very hard to do any statistics on such summary statistics unless the player flat bet.
Gist of it, really bad results.
Quote: tongniwhat's the EV of the game if when dealer draws a card, if it busts him, it's discarded and he gets a second one which he keeps? I always assumed it's somewhere between -10-20%.
That's called dealing seconds, which is what Casino Bar was doing. I don't think the disadvantage is that high. Probably more like 5%.
xxxwww.casinomeister.com/forums/showthread.php?t=67150
and also slots....
xxxwww.casinomeister.com/forums/showthread.php?t=65958
It's got that same online casino lobby music that starts playing.
$200 deposit, $1554 bonus.
BJ - 150 bets, +275
BJ - 16 bets, -70
JOB - 91 bets, -505
BJ - 100 bets, +210
BJ - 89 bets, +20
JOB - 146 bets, -655
GOTL - 26 bets, +150
roulette - 1 bet, -10
BJ - 185 bets, -159
net: -744
Startted at $1754. Lost $744. Ended up with $1,010.
BJ alone: [not showing math here]
$10,600 put into action. with a +276 end result (BJ only), that puts me around a 2.603% return (or 102.603% return).
Too bad I played VP in there. That I'm thinking is a little....funky. I got 1 flush and 1 full house (or maybe 2 flushes or 2 full houses). Never hit anything better than that. Almost always played the $5 denomination ($25/pop).
So you lost. They subtract the bonus at the end so you are in negative numbers.Quote: RSMy results:
$200 deposit, $1554 bonus.
BJ - 150 bets, +275
BJ - 16 bets, -70
JOB - 91 bets, -505
BJ - 100 bets, +210
BJ - 89 bets, +20
JOB - 146 bets, -655
GOTL - 26 bets, +150
roulette - 1 bet, -10
BJ - 185 bets, -159
net: -744
Startted at $1754. Lost $744. Ended up with $1,010.
BJ alone: [not showing math here]
$10,600 put into action. with a +276 end result (BJ only), that puts me around a 2.603% return (or 102.603% return).
Too bad I played VP in there. That I'm thinking is a little....funky. I got 1 flush and 1 full house (or maybe 2 flushes or 2 full houses). Never hit anything better than that. Almost always played the $5 denomination ($25/pop).
I take it nobody won?
