Vegas Vacation with AOS
Quote: AxiomOfChoiceRemember that he is using the speed count. I don't know how quickly he is ramping, or if he is using any basic strategy deviations along with the speed count, or even if he is played perfect basic strategy (everyone makes mistakes) so it's hard to get a precise answer. If there's an edge in the DD game it's probably insignificant.
Was this post of mine truncated by an admin? If so, why? It broke no rules.
Quote: AxiomOfChoiceI thought you counted hands dealt and subtracted the number of high cards?
It doesn't matter, it's all nonsense anyway. I don't understand why you would look for this poorly-correlated 2nd-order effect when you can just count the number of cards that come out instead of counting the number of hands.
Advanced Speed Count: Just assume one high card and one low card per hand. So your count is always 0!
Yeah, whether you count only the low cards and subtract the hands, or if you count the hands and subtract only the high cards, the speed count works the same way: poorly.
Advanced speed count sounds great. Think how quickly you could implement it.
And then there is this scenario where Ace is able to recall many, many hands in row. What cards he had. What cards the dealer had. For a dozen hands or more. Ace, if you really have this kind of recall ability then the discussion should not be whether you should be using speed count or hi-lo. You should be using some level 5, rainman-type count, where you memorize every card played and know the percentages of the remaining cards to a high degree.
I suspect, what is occurring here, is what we refer to as selective memory. No doubt you have had a bad run this trip. But what you are recalling as 15 losses in a row is probably not quite that. Selective memory.
Quote: sodawaterYeah, whether you count only the low cards and subtract the hands, or if you count the hands and subtract only the high cards, the speed count works the same way: poorly.
Advanced speed count sounds great. Think how quickly you could implement it.
I feel like I unwittingly kicked off another round of aceofspades-bashing.
AoS, I feel you man. Regardless of expectation, edge, etc., it sucks to take a big loss like that.
I echo kewlj's earlier post to check your goals and expectations, and then hit it again.
Not even that. It is simple hyperbole. A few posts back, Ace stated:Quote: kewljI suspect, what is occurring here, is what we refer to as selective memory. No doubt you have had a bad run this trip. But what you are recalling as 15 losses in a row is probably not quite that. Selective memory.
Clearly the dealer did not pull a 9 on *every* 12 and AoS did not *always* pull a 10.Quote: AoS"I think my shock is not losing a hand---it is the "dealer pulls a 9 on every 12 and I always pull a 10" type of disbelief "
If I do the math, AoS lost about 35 top bets. That's a trivial short-term swing for most card counters. This type of loss will happen to the best of them in a single session.
Quote: coilmanMaybe this video will make ACE feel a little better .... or maybe not
http://sports.yahoo.com/video/john-daly-gambling-away-55-110000595.html
I enjoyed viewing that.
Daly has the correct attitude for a recreational gambler: gamble for fun, for pleasure, for the adrenaline rush.
I love how he didn't say he regrets losing 55M at BJ and slots.
Bravo.
Quote: AxiomOfChoiceWas this post of mine truncated by an admin? If so, why? It broke no rules.
If so, it wasn't me, so I have no idea.
These are MAJOR red flags Mr. ACE. I am going to close by returning to the sentiment that I expressed several days ago. You really need to sit down and seriously re-evaluate what you are doing and where you go from here, going forward.
Quote: AcesAndEightsI feel like I unwittingly kicked off another round of aceofspades-bashing.
AoS, I feel you man. Regardless of expectation, edge, etc., it sucks to take a big loss like that.
I echo kewlj's earlier post to check your goals and expectations, and then hit it again.
No! We are not bashing AoS. We are bashing speed count.
AoS is the victim here. He has been suckered by a scam system. We are trying to point that out so that he learns a real count instead. The point is to help him.
It's not really about the bad trip, specifically. If he was using a better count, his wins might have been a bit bigger, and his losses might have been a bit smaller, so his terrible weekend might have left him in slightly positive territory instead of slightly negative. It's all about increasing expectation, and then just putting in the hours.
Quote: Mission146If so, it wasn't me, so I have no idea.
It's possible that I accidentally hit ctrl-Z or something before I posted. I thought I had another paragraph in there (I know I wrote it)
Quote: teliot
If I do the math, AoS lost about 35 top bets. That's a trivial short-term swing for most card counters. This type of loss will happen to the best of them in a single session.
I am not sure what Ace's top wager is, or if it's even the same all the time? If it's $500, then yes, this trip's loss is 35 max wagers and that is not a rare occurrence. But I would not use the word 'trivial', Teliot. There is a lose rule of thumb that many casual counter go by of BR=100 top wagers. So the loss of 35 top wagers would be 1/3 of the BR. Hardy 'trivial'. Lol. Now, professional and serious counters play to a much lower RoR than that, so the loss of 35 top wagers, would not be as big a deal, but I still would not say 'trivial'. 35 top wagers IS significant. It's a pretty good black eye under any circumstances.
He asks host for 10% rebate on 15K loss.
I will try and do math, I said try. HE 00.5% X $200 average bet= House wins $1 per hand. 70 hands per hours House wins $70 per hour. 70+ hours x $70 = $5,000 House win. 5,000 X .30 = $1500 Rebate.
How many hours did Ace play, probably barely enough to cover room and food, if that !
House will rebate on expected win, not actual loss. Don Johnson taught them that.
Any math or real casino personnel feel free to jump in.
I was watching a table and a guy had 300 up got 2 aces then split out 2 more aces on top of those for 4 hands
He gets 2 3 4 5 lol
Dealer has Ace showing and dealer turns up an Ace
Then King then King to bust
Wonder if those cards were shuffled lol
Okay, it's not trivial.Quote: kewljSo the loss of 35 top wagers would be 1/3 of the BR. Hardy 'trivial'.
No doubt you've had that experience before multiple times, so you can speak to how it feels and its frequency far better than me. My point is that his result is not that out-of-range for what happens to card counters who use a stronger system with a larger spread playing better games.
Quote: teliotOkay, it's not trivial.
No doubt you've had that experience before multiple times, so you can speak to how it feels and its frequency far better than me. My point is that his result is not that out-of-range for what happens to card counters who use a stronger system with a larger spread playing better games.
Very good. I agree. Was just having a little trouble with the idea that 35 max bets is 'trivial'. Basically, just having trouble with your choice of words. Lol.
Also played $10 BJ for 8 plus hours in AC, Josie tapped out earlier so she was playing spot next to me with $100 I gave her.
End result I lost $1100. She won $1200 and change. With her asking me what to do on some hands.
No, the casinos in this country have not changed their ways with respect to Loss Rebates. There has been very little movement towards a T-Win based system for awarding top-tier players.Quote: Buzzard
House will rebate on expected win, not actual loss. Don Johnson taught them that.
Any math or real casino personnel feel free to jump in.
In my experience, large strip properties have fixed contracts for loss rebate programs, and then have quick-loss clauses for certain extreme cases. Typically, these programs begin with a deposit somewhere over $100k in the cage, and a minimum average bet of $1000. The player signs that he understands the terms of the contract. Then, 5% would be the starting guaranteed loss rebate, based on a minimum of 12 hours of play. You wouldn't get to 10% until you have a deposit over $250k, and up from there. Many properties still offer 20% loss rebates for their top-tier.
There are many particulars that make DJ's case different than the usual Loss Rebate program. However, Loss Rebate exploitation continues to be one of the largest ongoing advantage plays going on.
As for AoS, I am not sure he made a deposit in the cage. If he did, it was under $20k. This would not be enough for even a 5% rebate at most large properties in L.V.
It was funny and they were so thankful I told them it was free
That was a +EV moment this trip
Quote: aceofspadesA foreign couple just asked me how much the ticket is for the Aria Tram
It was funny and they were so thankful I told them it was free
That was a +EV moment this trip
Every dark cloud has one of them ace :)
When do you head back east?
Quote: TomspurEvery dark cloud has one of them ace :)
When do you head back east?
Tomorrow night so you never know what could happen in Vegas lol
Quote: aceofspadesJust witnessed the following:
I was watching a table and a guy had 300 up got 2 aces then split out 2 more aces on top of those for 4 hands
He gets 2 3 4 5 lol
Dealer has Ace showing and dealer turns up an Ace
Then King then King to bust
Wonder if those cards were shuffled lol
The cards had to have been shuffled, and shuffled well. New decks come with 12 or 24 cards in between each ace.
Do you need a personal loan in the mean time?Quote: aceofspadesTomorrow night so you never know what could happen in Vegas lol
What kind of watch to you have?
Quote: sodawaterThe cards had to have been shuffled, and shuffled well. New decks come with 12 or 24 cards in between each ace.
sodawater -- I cannot tell if you are countering my sarcasm with your own? of course I know they were shuffled lol
Quote: AxelWolfDo you need a personal loan in the mean time?
No but I thank you for the offer
Quote: aceofspadessodawater -- I cannot tell if you are countering my sarcasm with your own? of course I know they were shuffled lol
No, that's just my standard reply at the poker table when someone sees a flop like J-J-J and asks if the cards were shuffled.
Heck, how can things get any worse?
I'm not sure if You would have been thanking me since you had not heard the terms yet. http://mysteryoftheiniquity.com/2012/06/10/sell-your-soul-to-the-devil/Quote: aceofspadesNo but I thank you for the offer
Quote: MrVScrape up a few bucks and take a few shots at the Lions Share slot at MGM.
Heck, how can things get any worse?
John Daly has that machine tied up trying to re-coup 4% of his losses
Quote: djatcI feel ace is saying he uses speed count as cover. His presence maybe too high profile to give out his exact movements. I hope to god that's true, as I've looked over speed counting and found it too complicating as opposed to KO
Wow I am glad somebody thinks I'm high profile
:-)
Quote: djatcI feel ace is saying he uses speed count as cover. His presence maybe too high profile to give out his exact movements. I hope to god that's true, as I've looked over speed counting and found it too complicating as opposed to KO
That is pretty smart. I usually lose all my money as cover.
Quote: AxelWolfI'm not sure if You would have been thanking me since you had not heard the terms yet. http://mysteryoftheiniquity.com/2012/06/10/sell-your-soul-to-the-devil/
Well - since I don't believe in souls...sure!!!
I attended 16 years of Catholic school, so it's gotta be worth something.
Quote: sodawaterAxel...what will you offer me for my soul? Revel just sent me a coupon for $10 matchplay so you'd have to beat that.
I attended 16 years of Catholic school, so it's gotta be worth something.
Classic Revel :-)
Quote: AxiomOfChoiceThat is pretty smart. I usually lose all my money as cover.
I've lost $100's to receive a $15 gas card, so I know how you feel :(
I had value though.
But that low down feeling could never beat me in the end. I expect its the same for you. Get your ass out of the mud. When you are on the bottom there is no way to go but up. Up and out, Ace. That's where you and me are going, brother. Up and out. F--- the bull----, you and me, Ace are going up and out. We just need to regroup a little, put a little better plan down, then we are going to run with it.
Quote: AcesAndEights
You only brought $15K with you? That's madness for your betting level. My bet spread is (roughly) $25-$300 and I bring about that with me for a weekend trip to Vegas. You need to bring a lot more, or at least make sure your bank is ready to let you have more without the annoying phone calls and emails.
IMO, this is the best advice in this thread so far.
with $100 base bet, I would bring 50K with me for a three-day trip.
Quote: mickeycrimmYou've got two ways to go, Ace. You can go to hell or you can go to heaven. Do you think you are the only one to ever be in a predicament? Have you ever jumped off a freight train in the middle of the night, broke, cold, hungry, tired. And nothing but a town full of strangers to look forward to? No, you candy ass lawyer, you've never experienced that. I have. More than one time. I know that low down feeling.
But that low down feeling could never beat me in the end. I expect its the same for you. Get your ass out of the mud. When you are on the bottom there is no way to go but up. Up and out, Ace. That's where you and me are going, brother. Up and out. F--- the bull----, you and me, Ace are going up and out. We just need to regroup a little, put a little better plan down, then we are going to run with it.
Quote: mickeycrimmAnd trust me, brother. You and me? We are going to find a way out of the mud, period. No one can keep us down, Ace. Up and out. That's the way we are going brother. Faith and a good plan.
Are you sharing your creative writing homework with us?
Made back 2100 so far
Amazingly friendly staff at the Cromwell and sensually decorated
Might become my new place to stay
Quote: aceofspadesPlayed at The Cromwell and already got a host
Made back 2100 so far
Amazingly friendly staff at the Cromwell and sensually decorated
Might become my new place to stay
Good for you. Enjoy what is left of your vacation!
Quote: aceofspadesPlayed at The Cromwell and already got a host
Made back 2100 so far
Amazingly friendly staff at the Cromwell and sensually decorated
Might become my new place to stay
Did the rumors hold true about the place? 3:2 S17? What's the minimum?
