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gordonm888
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gordonm888
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September 26th, 2021 at 10:01:30 AM permalink
Let me say that I imagine that casino personnel would start to act like MDawg stated after, say, 12 wins in a row, and I can believe an account of a streak of 12-15 wins in a row. I just simply cannot have any level of confidence that "60 wins in a row" is an accurate account without very significant corroboration from independent observers -and even then I would not have high confidence in such a statistically unlikely account.

I am just being real here. Witnesses to accidents sometimes give completely conflicting accounts, and I have had personal experiences where I have realized how my memories of an event many years in my past were not accurate in some important particulars. I'm not an expert on this kind of subject, but like many others on this forum, I do feel I am an expert on gaming probabilities.
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
ThatDonGuy
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OnceDear
September 26th, 2021 at 10:20:14 AM permalink
Quote: MDawg

Well, what I remember is that I kept winning and winning and then when I finally lost two hands in a row I left. Which is why I recall no losses along the way....


So it's possible that you were up 60 hands (taking blackjacks and splits/doubles into account) before you lost two in a row? That sounds more feasible than "won 60-some hands in a row."
Wizard
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September 26th, 2021 at 10:20:47 AM permalink
Quote: redietz

You mods are a trip. Sometimes when people report their conversations with the wolfman, who by the way won 60 consecutive blackjack hands, you really should point out that they're mentally disturbed, lying, or both.

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    Personal insult. Based, in part, on past history -- seven days.
    ďExtraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence.Ē -- Carl Sagan
    MDawg
    MDawg
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    September 26th, 2021 at 10:24:24 AM permalink
    Quote: ThatDonGuy

    So it's possible that you were up 60 hands (taking blackjacks and splits/doubles into account) before you lost two in a row? That sounds more feasible than "won 60-some hands in a row."

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    Possible, yes. If I understand what you are saying?

    I very much recall how shocked I was that I lost two in a row, plus it was so late at night by then that I was really hungry and tired, and I just left, which is why I don't recall any losses before that although - again, I could not swear to that I did not lose a single hand along the way, nor to the exact numbers, which is why I said "some."
    Last edited by: MDawg on Sep 26, 2021
    I tell you itís wonderful to be here, man. I donít give a damn who wins or loses. Itís just wonderful to be here with you people. https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
    Wizard
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    September 26th, 2021 at 10:27:42 AM permalink
    Quote: MDawg

    What are the odds of taking $600. to a million and a half at blackjack in just a day or so? Come to think of it, what are the odds of losing a million and a half at a regular blackjack table in just a day (assuming correct play)? Streaks happen.

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    Let's simplify the question and use the pass bet in craps. If the shoeless man won just 11 bets in a row, he could parlay that $600 to $1,228,800. The probability of that is just 1 in 2,395. What you are claiming has a probability of 1 in 107,294,826,280,306,000,000.
    ďExtraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence.Ē -- Carl Sagan
    OnceDear
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    MDawg
    September 26th, 2021 at 10:32:01 AM permalink
    Quote: MDawg

    Quote: ThatDonGuy

    So it's possible that you were up 60 hands (taking blackjacks and splits/doubles into account) before you lost two in a row? That sounds more feasible than "won 60-some hands in a row."

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    Possible, yes.

    I very much recall how shocked I was that I lost two in a row, plus it was so late at night by then that I was really hungry and tired, and I just left, which is why I don't recall any losses before that although - again, I could not swear to that I did not lose a single hand along the way, nor to the exact numbers, which is why I said "some."
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    Notwithstanding that use of the word 'some' could modify the 60 but not mitigate the 'in a row', I think we are done here.
    We have our token suspension. We have (IMHO) MDawg walking back his assertion a little.
    I think it's 'honours even'
    An assertion has been debated in a civil manner. Thank's to all, even the suspended one.
    Let's hope no more controversy or suspensions in this thread.
    Beware. The earth is NOT flat. Hit and run is not a winning strategy: Pressing into trends IS not a winning strategy: Progressives are not a winning strategy: Don't Buy It! .Don't even take it for free.
    MDawg
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    September 26th, 2021 at 10:33:26 AM permalink
    Quote: Wizard

    Quote: MDawg

    What are the odds of taking $600. to a million and a half at blackjack in just a day or so? Come to think of it, what are the odds of losing a million and a half at a regular blackjack table in just a day (assuming correct play)? Streaks happen.

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    Let's simplify the question and use the pass bet in craps. If the shoeless man won just 11 bets in a row, he could parlay that $600 to $1,228,800. The probability of that is just 1 in 2,395. What you are claiming has a probability of 1 in 107,294,826,280,306,000,000.
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    From what I understand the shoeless bandit took a day to get to a million and a half (or so), so it wasn't on a parlay. And --- hold on a second. At the time the shoeless bandit was playing Blackjack, table max was, I believe 5000 (maybe even only 2500). The shoeless bandit win was in the mid 1990s or so, at Treasure Island. So, how do you figure 11 hands got him to $1.2M ?

    Plus I guess it was not even six hundred but just $400. with which the shoeless bandit started.

    Man, I wish I had read what you posted a few days ago. In that it would have gotten me thinking more about pressing and parlays. The other day I put five grand on a bet, and won. Then I left it up, and won again. After that I didn't care and left it up until I lost. I won 4/5 hands at 5000 not the greatest streak, but not bad. I didn't press, not those particular hands, because five grand seemed sufficient, at least at that moment. But had I thought about the 11 hand to 1.2M you mention, I might've been roused to greed.
    Last edited by: MDawg on Sep 26, 2021
    I tell you itís wonderful to be here, man. I donít give a damn who wins or loses. Itís just wonderful to be here with you people. https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
    Expectedvalue
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    September 26th, 2021 at 10:38:33 AM permalink
    Quote: OnceDear

    I doubt the 60 wins are in question. The absurdity being questioned is the 'in a row'

    I/We might accept that you played some 60 or so hands and won almost all of them, putting you maybe 60 hands ahead. If you were not counting hands and had maybe 65 hands with maybe only 3 or 4 individual losses amongst them, And that you back calculated the 60 from a reference to your final profit, then that would be plausible. Unlikely but plausible.

    It is absolutely forgivable for your recall to be flawed after 2 decades. No shame in that.
    It is absolutely unbelievable that 60 wins in a row occured.

    As an intelligent guy, you can do the maths. I invite you to accept that your recollection was flawed.

    I'M NOT calling you a liar, not even implying such. I invite you to look to your report as an impartial observer and recognise that it was likely to being a flawed memory.

    60 wins in a row a 1 in >1000000000000000000 event! C'mon!

    Stay safe.

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    I really take offense to oncedear and his nornal great job at the forum. Why do you give that dawg such leeway. He said it stands. Now you wanna let him back track. SCREW THIS. I was suspended for trying to work out my challenge and Clarify the rules and was held in stone. This 60 hands is bullshit. He knows it the forum knows it you know it the entire mdawg this is just ahhhhhh. Now he gets what he loves and his thread front and center again . We should hid any thread he makes in my opinon
    joedol
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    mwalz9
    September 26th, 2021 at 10:50:03 AM permalink
    I'd like to know why the mods put up with crap like this nonsense. The forum has really gone to hell
    lately and everyone knows why.
    Dieter
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    Dieter
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    September 26th, 2021 at 10:53:38 AM permalink
    Quote: Expectedvalue


    I really take offense to oncedear and his nornal great job at the forum. Why do you give that dawg such leeway.

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    There was some chatter within recent memory about "nobody comes here to see the mods moderate" and "maybe lighten up". I'm not attributing those comments to anyone in particular; they should be considered my summary.

    I think that particular trial placement can be considered ended.
    May the cards fall in your favor.

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