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Wizard
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Wizard
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
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September 26th, 2021 at 11:00:29 AM permalink
Quote: joedol

I'd like to know why the mods put up with crap like this nonsense. The forum has really gone to hell
lately and everyone knows why.

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    I'm going to file this as an indefinite resignation.
    “Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence.” -- Carl Sagan
    Wizard
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    Wizard
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    September 26th, 2021 at 11:03:45 AM permalink
    Quote: Expectedvalue

    This 60 hands is bullshit.



    Personal insult/profanity -- Seven days.
    “Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence.” -- Carl Sagan
    TomG
    TomG
    Joined: Sep 26, 2010
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    Thanks for this post from:
    unJon
    September 26th, 2021 at 12:28:19 PM permalink
    Konik, whom I respect quite a lot, reported about a player winning "More than 50 hands". He isn't exactly clear if it is really consecutive wins, or if there is an occasional loss in there. He also provides a theory for why Wiz's (or any similar) analysis shouldn't apply:

    https://www.cigaraficionado.com/article/cheatin-man-7728

    (that whole series from him that went on for several years is worth checking out).
    AlanMendelson
    AlanMendelson
    Joined: Oct 5, 2011
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    September 26th, 2021 at 12:37:34 PM permalink
    Quote: Wizard

    Quote: MDawg

    Quote: Wizard

    Hmmm. I'm going to give you a chance to retract that before I pounce all over it.

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    It should be "some sixty" hands in a row. If you want to PM me I will tell you my average bet and how much exactly I walked with, and you figure out how many hands in a row I won! I was unstoppable. We can talk about this more when I see you or on the phone. It is truthful.

    Looking back, I wonder if the fact that they were constantly changing decks or getting to the point where they would deal only one hand to me and then shuffle was actually what made my streak possible. In any case, yes, it did happen.



    I would not be able to determine the exact consecutive number of hands based on that information. How many shuffles took place in between is not very relevant, compared to the enormity of your claim.

    That said, my page on variance in blackjack (which I always have difficulty finding) shows that under liberal Vegas Strip rules, shows the following probability of the net result per hand:

    Win: 42.43%
    Push: 8.48%
    Loss: 49.09%

    I'll nicely take out the pushes, for a probability of winning, given the bet was resolved, of 46.36%.

    Let me say that yes, I know the odds are a little different for other sets of rules. I am just making an estimate here.

    The probability of winning 60 hands in a row, starting at any one point, is 1 in 107,294,826,280,306,000,000.

    Let's say you play blackjack four hours a day, at 100 hands per hour, for a year, five days a week. The probability of seeing 60 wins in a row is about 1 in 102,885,449,857,828,000. Before somebody jumps down my black, this is just an estimate. It's not exactly right because of overlapping sequences of 60 hands.

    As a basis of comparison, the probability of winning the Powerball is 1 in 292,201,338 and the probability of winning Megamillions is 1 in 302,575,350. If you purchased one of each ticket, the probability of winning both would be 1 in 88,412,922,115,818,300. So, it's 16% more likely to win both lotteries, with two tickets, than do what you're claiming.

    I see the comparison to Alan's 18 yo's in a row as already been made. As a reminder, the probability of that, starting with any one roll, is 1 in 39,346,408,075,296,500,000,000. That is still 367 times more unlikely than starting with any one hand in blackjack, but they are the same order of magnitude.

    I have said many times that I don't believe Alan and think his memory is not perfect. I suspect he read somewhere that the probability of an 11 is 1 in 18, and the 18 stuck in his head.

    Likewise, I think your memory, or your math, is not perfect. You are now in the same basket with Alan. May you become good friends.
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    Since my name was brought up...

    For the record I DID NOT throw 18 yos in a row. I was at a craps table at Caesars Palace when a random shooter rolled 18 yos in a row. Also I never bet on the yo nor did the shooter or his friend... so I cant claim any huge winnings.

    Also I know little about blackjack and havent played it in years except at a free blackjack tournament at Red Rock Casino pre Covid.

    I did play Blackjack one time at the old Sahara when they had a $1 game. I bought in for $20 and I lost 20 hands in a row. I've been told that's some kind of a record. At the time the pit boss came over to me and said it was the worst run of bad luck he ever saw.

    I was playing okay... no stupid moves. But when I had 18 the dealer had 19. When I had 20 the dealer had 21. It was like that.

    Other players at the table got blackjacks but not me. Other players won but not me.

    Regarding 60+ wins in a row: after seeing a random roller throw 18 yos in a row i can believe 60 wins at blackjack in a row.

    By the way, my personal record is 4 yos in a row. And I took photos of dice being thrown and ending up stacked three different times and I sent those to the Wizard, and two of those throws were mine.

    I've also been married four times. Do the math on that too. LOL
    Mission146
    Mission146
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    September 26th, 2021 at 12:44:39 PM permalink
    Quote: FastEddie

    So since the odds of 18 yo’s is less than the odds of two dice landing atop each other 18 times in a row, you accept Alan’s claim as well ??? Fair is only fair !

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    Sure, why not? He says it happened. It’s mathematically possible.

    Besides, I never really went after Alan over that one. If you watch a Craps Table for twenty rolls, whatever the precise order of outcomes is, it’s pretty ridiculously unlikely that such a specific sequence will happen.

    Like I said before, the aspect of Alan’s story that I most questioned is that nobody bet the Yo!
    https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
    Mission146
    Mission146
    Joined: May 15, 2012
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    September 26th, 2021 at 12:48:41 PM permalink
    Quote: Dieter

    I believe this would be consistent with the mythology that many dealers perpetuate.

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    Not exactly a, “Mythology.” If Blackjack paid on a, “For one,” rather than, “To one,” basis, then pushes would be considered a win. That’s why slots can call so many outcomes in which a player has a net loss a, “Win.”
    https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
    Dieter
    Administrator
    Dieter
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    September 26th, 2021 at 1:26:44 PM permalink
    Quote: Mission146

    Quote: Dieter

    I believe this would be consistent with the mythology that many dealers perpetuate.

  • link to original post



    Not exactly a, “Mythology.” If Blackjack paid on a, “For one,” rather than, “To one,” basis, then pushes would be considered a win. That’s why slots can call so many outcomes in which a player has a net loss a, “Win.”
  • link to original post



    Quote: Random blackjack dealer, tapping table with back of hand


    A push is a win!



    Perhaps it's more of a religion than a mythology to miscategorize "not-loss" as "Win!"
    May the cards fall in your favor.
    JimRockford
    JimRockford
    Joined: Apr 17, 2012
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    September 26th, 2021 at 3:02:34 PM permalink
    Quote: AxelWolf

    Quote: JimRockford

    I recall that a few years back, a regular poster was nearly run out of here because he claimed 33 consecutive blackjack losses.

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    If you are talking about AOS it was 30.
  • link to original post


    I’m sure you’re right. I didn’t name the poster because so I would not be asked to provide evidence.
    "Truth is ever to be found in the simplicity, and not in the multiplicity and confusion of things." - Isaac Newton
    Wizard
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    Wizard
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    September 26th, 2021 at 3:03:51 PM permalink
    Quote: JimRockford

    I didn’t name the poster because so I would not be asked to provide evidence.

  • link to original post



    You would only get asked if somebody else did a coach's challenge.
    “Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence.” -- Carl Sagan
    Wellbush
    Wellbush
    Joined: Mar 23, 2021
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    September 26th, 2021 at 3:40:21 PM permalink
    Quote: Mission146

    I'm going to take MDawg at face value on this one and would highly encourage everyone to direct WellBush to this thread.

    In the event that, "Some sixty," consecutive Blackjack wins in a row can happen (disregarding pushes) as MDawg is claiming to have happened, AND the probability of losing an individual hand is greater than the probability of winning one (which it is) that means that MDawg was personally involved in an event that is LESS probable than losing, "Some sixty," hands in a row.

    Therefore, if WellBush accepts anything even close to this account as true, then any negative progression betting system he can come up with (as we already know) can fail.

    We have the real life proof account here, if MDawg is to be believed, except in reverse...because this event is actually less likely than losing some sixty hands in a row.

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    I have no problem whatsoever in responding to this post, except for one thing. A lack of protection for posters, especially on controversial topics. Kisses
    All persons reading my posts gamble at their own risk, as I do. I don't ordinarily dispute math. I may dispute math I don't understand, or if I think it's faulty. I am not a conspiracy theorist.

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