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Wellbush
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October 7th, 2021 at 6:27:47 AM permalink
Sometimes I've found the wording a bit unclear. Like, winning 60 'blackjack hands' in-a-row Vs winning 60 'blackjacks' in-a-row. They're completely different, and I'm assuming it was NOT, winning 60 'blackjacks' in-a-row (by that I mean every hand was a 'blackjack' for the player, for approx 60 hands).
Last edited by: Wellbush on Oct 7, 2021
All persons reading my posts gamble at their own risk, as I do. I don't ordinarily dispute math. I may dispute math I don't understand, or if I think it's faulty. I am not a conspiracy theorist.
OnceDear
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October 7th, 2021 at 8:42:41 AM permalink
Quote: Wellbush

Sometimes I've found the wording a bit unclear. Like, winning 60 'blackjack hands' in-a-row Vs winning 60 'blackjacks' in-a-row. They're completely different, and I'm assuming it was NOT, winning 60 'blackjacks' in-a-row (by that I mean every hand was a 'blackjack' for the player, for approx 60 hands).

  • link to original post

    I think your assumption was fair: Not 60 Blackjacks in a row.
    Now THAT would be quite something.
    Probability of 60 Blackjacks in a row! = (2 x (1 / 13) x (4 / 13))^60 = 3.25234750531e-80
    or to put it another way...

    1 in 30,700,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000

    But if you spend enough time in a casino, anything can happen.
    Psalm 25:16 Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted. Proverbs 18:2 A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
    unJon
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    October 7th, 2021 at 8:55:06 AM permalink
    Quote: OnceDear

    Quote: Wellbush

    Sometimes I've found the wording a bit unclear. Like, winning 60 'blackjack hands' in-a-row Vs winning 60 'blackjacks' in-a-row. They're completely different, and I'm assuming it was NOT, winning 60 'blackjacks' in-a-row (by that I mean every hand was a 'blackjack' for the player, for approx 60 hands).

  • link to original post

    I think your assumption was fair: Not 60 Blackjacks in a row.
    Now THAT would be quite something.
    Probability of 60 Blackjacks in a row! = (2 x (1 / 13) x (4 / 13))^60 = 3.25234750531e-80
    or to put it another way...

    1 in 30,700,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000

    But if you spend enough time in a casino, anything can happen.
  • link to original post



    It’s lower. It’s zero. They aren’t going to shuffle the deck or shoe every hand if the aces are coming out. That’s a good count for the house. And there aren’t enough aces in the deck or shoe to get you through BJs all the way.
    The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
    Wellbush
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    October 7th, 2021 at 9:10:36 AM permalink
    Yes, that makes sense. There are not enough jacks and aces about, for approx 60 blackjacks in-a-row.
    All persons reading my posts gamble at their own risk, as I do. I don't ordinarily dispute math. I may dispute math I don't understand, or if I think it's faulty. I am not a conspiracy theorist.
    AlanMendelson
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    October 7th, 2021 at 9:18:48 AM permalink
    Quote: Wellbush

    Yes, that makes sense. There are not enough jacks and aces about, for approx 60 blackjacks in-a-row.

  • link to original post



    I'm not a blackjack player but if in a single deck game or a double deck game the cards were reshuffled after every hand or two or three or four. Isnt there enough blackjack cards available for a continuous run of 21s?
    Wellbush
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    October 7th, 2021 at 9:25:15 AM permalink
    Quote: AlanMendelson

    I'm not a blackjack player but if in a single deck game or a double deck game the cards were reshuffled after every hand or two or three or four. Isnt there enough blackjack cards available for a continuous run of 21s?

  • link to original post

    not the '60 in-a-row' sort of bj run. Possibly 10 in-a-row, but even that would be pretty extreme.

    We would need to know if a Continuous Shuffle Machine (CSM) was being used, and when the completed hand cards were put back into the machine. That would give us a better idea re the situation.

    I'm not familiar with what goes on when CSMs are not deployed, but I find it hard to imagine that a casino would have their dealers reshuffle cards after just a few hands, if CSMs are not deployed.
    All persons reading my posts gamble at their own risk, as I do. I don't ordinarily dispute math. I may dispute math I don't understand, or if I think it's faulty. I am not a conspiracy theorist.
    MDawg
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    October 7th, 2021 at 9:33:09 AM permalink
    Getting a bunch of blackjacks in a row, or just plain getting blackjacks isn't what is reassuring - hitting them for a higher than usual bet is what matters. Sometimes I'll be playing and keep getting blackjacks on my minimum or close to minimum bets, and that's not so edifying.

    On one double deck session many years ago I was losing, got frustrated, complained to the dealer (off handedly, this dealer knew me pretty well), and slammed table limit (5000 at the time), after the shuffle and left it out. I got four blackjacks in a row! at table limit.

    "See how fast things can turn around?"

    Now, that was cool. I dropped the bet after the fourth blackjack. I recall thinking that four aces in a row seemed like a good portion of the deck. I still won that fifth hand too, but not with a blackjack. I kept playing for some time, but that 30K in four hands definitely helped and got me back ahead for the session.

    A pit boss once told me of a 5000 flat bettor at blackjack who got down to the last chip, and ended up emptying the rack. And then I've also seen a blackjack player who was up a pyramidal mountain of 5000 chips, gradually lose them all.

    Speaking of pyramidal mountains of chips - if you've ever seen Dennis Rodman play, he used to play at the Hard Rock Vegas with Carmen Electra at his side, he always had a pyramidal mountain of chips (but, "just" purple 500s) in front of him at the blackjack table. And he always lost. Sad story just like Mike Tyson at the Golden Nugget - the casinos sometimes eat these sports stars alive by relieving them of much of their assets.

    These days you still see major sports figures and celebrities at the casinos, but most of them seem to just pop in for a short session, play at not ridiculously high levels, and then leave. You do read about some who get in over their heads, but nowadays seem to be more the exception than the rule.
    Last edited by: MDawg on Oct 7, 2021
    I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people. https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
    OnceDear
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    October 7th, 2021 at 10:15:23 AM permalink
    Quote: MDawg

    On one double deck session many years ago I was losing, got frustrated, complained to the dealer (off handedly, this dealer knew me pretty well), and slammed table limit (5000 at the time), after the shuffle and left it out. I got four blackjacks in a row! at table limit.

  • link to original post

    I Believe you. 1 in 199153 events happen all the time. Your judgement was perfect, slamming down max, if you knew they were coming.
    Just another day.
    Psalm 25:16 Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted. Proverbs 18:2 A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
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    October 7th, 2021 at 10:40:23 AM permalink
    Quote: Dieter



    I have no idea why people are so hung up about a recollection of a card game from almost 20 years ago.



    I’ll help you understand. The vast majority of posters here do not believe that MDawg has consistently crushed the casinos playing the negative expectation game, baccarat. Nor do they believe his unrealistic claims of success on the tie bets. Plus a myriad of other claims. The fact that he could even make a claim of ‘some 60 hands in a row’ just adds evidence to the lack of credibility exhibited. Once confronted with the ludicrous nature of the claim, he then walked it back. I don’t know about you, but when I make a claim about my consecutive free throw streak (high 67), I am sure there were not ‘some’ misses in there. If I won 60 or so BJ hands with a loss sprinkled in here or there, I would NEVER have stated I won 60 in a row. I’d have said I had a real hot streak. But NEVER saying ‘in a row’ unless, well, there was no loss in the sample discussed.
    Dieter
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    October 7th, 2021 at 10:55:15 AM permalink
    Quote: SOOPOO

    I’ll help you understand. The vast majority of posters here do not believe that MDawg has consistently crushed the casinos playing the negative expectation game, baccarat.

  • link to original post



    I understand what people are hung up about.

    I do not understand why.
    May the cards fall in your favor.
    OnceDear
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    October 7th, 2021 at 10:56:43 AM permalink
    Quote: SOOPOO

    I’ll help you understand. The vast majority of posters here do not believe that MDawg has consistently crushed the casinos playing the negative expectation game, baccarat. Nor do they believe his unrealistic claims of success on the tie bets. Plus a myriad of other claims. The fact that he could even make a claim of ‘some 60 hands in a row’ just adds evidence to the lack of credibility exhibited. Once confronted with the ludicrous nature of the claim, he then walked it back. I don’t know about you, but when I make a claim about my consecutive free throw streak (high 67), I am sure there were not ‘some’ misses in there. If I won 60 or so BJ hands with a loss sprinkled in here or there, I would NEVER have stated I won 60 in a row. I’d have said I had a real hot streak. But NEVER saying ‘in a row’ unless, well, there was no loss in the sample discussed.

  • link to original post

    MDawg is held in high esteem here. Maybe partly because his own posts indicate that he is one of life's high rollers and big winners. Some folk look up to him. He has a fan club.
    It's rather interesting when one who we all look up to outs himself as fallible or even outs himself to have told us an untruth, even a technical untruth, which he later reworks or retracts. It's even more interesting when the backpedal only happens under the intense interrogation of his peers (or followers, or whoever). I believe that such is the situation in this thread.
    There is nothing wrong with quoting a somewhat flawed memory in an anecdote. But it does taint our perception of previous or subsequent anecdotes. We should not be too harsh on Mdawg. His anecdotes are entertaining. We should maybe look to ourselves for how much we take them literally.
    Psalm 25:16 Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted. Proverbs 18:2 A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
    Expectedvalue
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    October 7th, 2021 at 11:12:13 AM permalink
    Quote: Dieter

    Quote: SOOPOO

    I’ll help you understand. The vast majority of posters here do not believe that MDawg has consistently crushed the casinos playing the negative expectation game, baccarat.

  • link to original post



    I understand what people are hung up about.

    I do not understand why.
  • link to original post





    You don’t understand why? This guy comes in and makes claims which outfit right defy even the highest odds. He makes counterintuitive claims and then doubles down on them. Post claims of having millions and talks in the third person. Brags to no end, where as most people would simply say my room at the hotel, he brags by constantly saying my suite. There is another lawyer in town. , actually two of them one is naqvi who has multiple billboards and the other I won’t name . Both have the same persona and want everyone to think they are the bear at everything they do. And always go out of their way to prove it
    darkoz
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    October 7th, 2021 at 11:30:21 AM permalink
    Let's not discount that while making these claims MDawg and his supporters run an anti-AP conversation where math based plays are doubted, called into question, etc
    For Whom the bus tolls; The bus tolls for thee
    MDawg
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    October 7th, 2021 at 11:39:35 AM permalink
    Quote: OnceDear

    MDawg is held in high esteem here. Maybe partly because his own posts indicate that he is one of life's high rollers and big winners. Some folk look up to him. He has a fan club.

  • link to original post


    Thank you.


    Quote: OnceDear

    It's even more interesting when the backpedal only happens under the intense interrogation of his peers (or followers, or whoever). I believe that such is the situation in this thread.
    There is nothing wrong with quoting a somewhat flawed memory in an anecdote. But it does taint our perception of previous or subsequent anecdotes. We should not be too harsh on Mdawg. His anecdotes are entertaining. We should maybe look to ourselves for how much we take them literally.

  • link to original post


    Uhh, intense pressure? Wait a - hold on a minute - how does an internet forum constitute intense pressure? Intense pressure might be...when I was down a cool million on an intended few minute AMZN trade end of 2018, but I hung tough until a few months later when I sold at a profit. Actually, if I didn't view that as intense pressure why would I view anything coming from an internet forum as intense?

    I clarified/retracted what I had originally posted because it was the right thing to do to make more clear what might have happened. But the fact remains that it was an amazing notable session that was talked about for years at that casino. I'd say that anyone who has experienced anything extraordinary would consider it as just another anecdote, but anyone who has not, might be skeptical or worse - get bent out of shape with a "why hasn't anything like that happened to me" attitude. Have you ever cut a deck and experienced four blackjacks in a row at table limit, or fourteen Banks in a row right out the gate at Bacc. betting progressively 1000, 2000, 3000, 4000, etc.? or taken 100 or 200 to ten or twenty thousand dollars in one shoe? If yes - then most of what I post would just seem routine. If not, well - then - I don't know. Certainly I expect that someone like Archie Karas would accept that massive run ups might be possible.

    Everything I post is 100% factual. Here's another blackjack truth, I once took the change, about sixty bucks, from paying off the commission on a Bacc shoe and jammed it parlaying it all the way to five or six grand at a Blackjack table while waiting for the Bacc shuffle, and then returned to the Bacc table with five or six grand more than what I had minutes prior. My friends who were with me on that trip and witnessed it still talk about that one.

    If you're somewhat fearless and willing to lay it out there, anything might happen. I'd say that much of the time people lose at casinos because they are afraid to lay it out there big when they should, and then later lay it out there big when they shouldn't. I try not to fall into that pit. Of course I have, like anyone else, but over all I think I've avoided that sort of thing pretty well.
    I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people. https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
    teliot
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    October 7th, 2021 at 11:42:15 AM permalink
    Quote: OnceDear

    MDawg is held in high esteem here.

    I don't believe you.
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    Expectedvalue
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    October 7th, 2021 at 11:45:33 AM permalink
    So you are now saying there is a time to lay it out there big in baccarat?
    coachbelly
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    October 7th, 2021 at 11:54:25 AM permalink
    Quote: MDawg

    I clarified/retracted what I had originally posted because it was the right thing to do to make more clear what might have happened.


    There seems to be a group of members who can't reconcile that your recollections from some 20 years ago may not be as clear and detailed as your current reports.

    As if, since you can't remember exactly what you ate some 20 years ago, then your report of what you ate today should be dismissed as dubious.
    Expectedvalue
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    October 7th, 2021 at 12:09:55 PM permalink
    Well coach yes, if you claim you are fried dinosaur brains in Africa 20 years ago only to find out you didn’t then yes you should be called into question. ONCE YOU MAKE THAT CLAIM.
    MDawg
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    October 7th, 2021 at 12:23:06 PM permalink
    There are three kinds of people.

    1. The first, make things happen.

    2. The second, watch things happen.

    3. The third, wonder, What the h happened?
    I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people. https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
    Expectedvalue
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    October 7th, 2021 at 12:35:31 PM permalink
    Is that a hijack to throw us off topic? Why are you adding that?
    SOOPOO
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    October 7th, 2021 at 12:38:49 PM permalink
    Quote: MDawg

    There are three kinds of people.

    1. The first, make things happen.

    2. The second, watch things happen.

    3. The third, wonder, What the h happened?

  • link to original post



    Interesting! I think I’m all 3! I enjoy all 3! Golf round today…. Made a bunch of long putts! (1)
    Watched new guy stuff his wedges consistently! (2)
    Saw him hit wedge over bunker with no green to work with to downhill green and it STOPPED a few feet from hole. (3).

    All 3 on the golf course today.
    OnceDear
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    October 7th, 2021 at 1:00:05 PM permalink
    Quote: MDawg

    Uhh, intense pressure? Wait a - hold on a minute - how does an internet forum constitute intense pressure? Intense pressure might be...when I was down a cool million on an intended few minute AMZN trade end of 2018, but I hung tough until a few months later when I sold at a profit. Actually, if I didn't view that as intense pressure why would I view anything coming from an internet forum as intense?


    I said intense interrogation. Not pressure.
    But well done in explaining how little pressure you feel while making Million Dollar martingales averages down trades. And well done telling us again about how blithely you smash Baccarat.
    Quote:


    I clarified/retracted what I had originally posted because it was the right thing to do to make more clear what might have happened.

    Sorry, but I believe you retracted/clarified only because you were effectively called out. As you've said, you have posted this anecdote a few times over the years. You only retracted this time, because?

    Quote:

    Have you ever cut a deck and experienced four blackjacks in a row at table limit, or fourteen Banks in a row right out the gate at Bacc. betting progressively 1000, 2000, 3000, 4000, etc.? or taken 100 or 200 to ten or twenty thousand dollars in one shoe? If yes - then most of what I post would just seem routine.

    We note, how exceptional you are!
    Quote:

    Everything I post is 100% factual.

    How thoroughly has that been disproved in this very thread? Each time you make that claim, we will remind ourselves here.
    Quote:

    Here's another blackjack truth, I once took the change, about sixty bucks, from paying off the commission on a Bacc shoe and jammed it parlaying it all the way to five or six grand at a Blackjack table while waiting for the Bacc shuffle, and then returned to the Bacc table with five or six grand more than what I had minutes prior. My friends who were with me on that trip and witnessed it still talk about that one.

    OK. I'll bite. was it five or six? Is your memory, and the memory of your witnesses, of such an incredible event uncertain? Such an unforgettable event and you collectively can only pitch to within 20% ?!
    Quote:

  • link to original post

    Last edited by: OnceDear on Oct 7, 2021
    Psalm 25:16 Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted. Proverbs 18:2 A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
    coachbelly
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    October 7th, 2021 at 2:18:52 PM permalink
    Quote: Expectedvalue

    you claim you are fried dinosaur brains in Africa 20 years ago only to find out you didn’t


    You can eat fried dinosaur brains today, how would you find out that what you ate 20 years ago wasn't dinosaur brains?
    MDawg
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    October 7th, 2021 at 3:50:29 PM permalink
    OnceDear's saying that MDawg clarified/retracted only because he was "called out" is wrong, and a reaching speculation on his part.

    As well, saying that anything has been "disproved," let alone "thoroughly," is again in the opinion of the writer. Nothing has been proved or disproved, all that has happened is that the odds for what has been claimed have been calculated, perhaps correctly, perhaps not, given that my recollection of what exactly happened in terms of how many hands in a row I won, is not precise.

    I don't care if something is darn near impossible. Unlikely events including miracles have happened over the course of human history according to billions of believers, and it is up to you to decide whether something has happened or not. What I describe is certainly not on the order of a miracle.

    There was a small crowd around me when I was winning, and it wasn't because of the sums I was winning - which, again ended with merely some $70K ahead - no vast sum - but rather because I just kept winning and winning and winning. It was extraordinary. The pit staff, dealers and casino marveled at reminding me of that streak for years to come not because I won a mere $70K, but because at that session, I was unstoppable, for so long.
    I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people. https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
    OnceDear
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    October 7th, 2021 at 4:04:33 PM permalink
    Quote: MDawg

    OnceDear's saying that MDawg clarified/retracted only because he was "called out" is wrong, and a reaching speculation on his part.

    As well, saying that anything has been "disproved," let alone "thoroughly," is again in the opinion of the writer. Nothing has been proved or disproved, all that has happened is that the odds for what has been claimed have been calculated, perhaps correctly, perhaps not, given that my recollection of what exactly happened in terms of how many hands in a row I won, is not precise.

    I don't care if something is darn near impossible. Unlikely events including miracles have happened over the course of human history according to billions of believers, and it is up to you to decide whether something has happened or not. What I describe is certainly not on the order of a miracle.

    There was a small crowd around me when I was winning, and it wasn't because of the sums I was winning - which, again ended with merely some $70K ahead - no vast sum - but rather because I just kept winning and winning and winning. It was extraordinary. The pit staff, dealers and casino marveled at reminding me of that streak for years to come not because I won a mere $70K, but because at that session, I was unstoppable, for so long.

  • link to original post

    MDawg...... I can see we need to revisit some super simple questions. Not about what you recall happening, but what actually happened. We can also look into your own assessment of your memory function, later.
    Did you assert that you encountered 'some sixty winning hands in a row' ( I moved the 'some' for you)
    Does 'in a row' mean that apart from ties, there were ZERO losing hands in that streak.
    Would 30 wins, one loss and another 30 wins qualify as some sixty wins in a row'?
    (Clue. It wouldn't for me)
    Later you asserted that you won just short of $70k at $800 per hand. and you quit when you encountered 2 consecutive losses the first time. So, by wizard's estimation you actually won about 70 some hands.
    So are you now accepting that within that session of 70some hands there was only ONE losing hand? Or maybe a few separate losing hands?
    If there were losing hands, do you accept that you did not have some 60 winning hands in a row but that you actually had 'some 70 winning hands in a session of over 70 some hands... with only the occasional individual loss?

    Had I witnessed the session, or Had I been MDawg, and he had been very steadily winning his 800 flat bets, with say 10 consecutive wins, a loss, 20 more wins, a loss, 5 more wins, a loss, 30 wins, a loss... etc till he was 70k up and stopped out at a pair of losses, I'd have said, and would still say "Wow! MDawg was unstoppable." BUT. No Way in hades was that anything in the ballpark of some sixty wins IN A ROW.

    It's never been the Some Sixty in dispute. It has been the IN A ROW, Which is frankly the basis of all the calculations.
    Psalm 25:16 Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted. Proverbs 18:2 A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
    teliot
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    October 7th, 2021 at 4:12:41 PM permalink
    Quote: MDawg

    OnceDear's saying that MDawg clarified/retracted only because he was "called out" is wrong, and a reaching speculation on his part.

    As well, saying that anything has been "disproved," let alone "thoroughly," is again in the opinion of the writer. Nothing has been proved or disproved, all that has happened is that the odds for what has been claimed have been calculated, perhaps correctly, perhaps not, given that my recollection of what exactly happened in terms of how many hands in a row I won, is not precise.

    I don't care if something is darn near impossible. Unlikely events including miracles have happened over the course of human history according to billions of believers, and it is up to you to decide whether something has happened or not. What I describe is certainly not on the order of a miracle.

    There was a small crowd around me when I was winning, and it wasn't because of the sums I was winning - which, again ended with merely some $70K ahead - no vast sum - but rather because I just kept winning and winning and winning. It was extraordinary. The pit staff, dealers and casino marveled at reminding me of that streak for years to come not because I won a mere $70K, but because at that session, I was unstoppable, for so long.

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    I don't believe you.
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    mwalz9
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    October 7th, 2021 at 4:14:31 PM permalink
    Quote: MDawg

    There are three kinds of people.

    1. The first, make things happen.

    2. The second, watch things happen.

    3. The third, wonder, What the h happened?

  • link to original post



    Im all 3 as well.

    1)I log into this forum to make things happen.

    2)I watch people post ridiculous claims on here.

    3)I wonder what the h*!! really happened.

    I usually do that daily.
    coachbelly
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    October 7th, 2021 at 4:17:31 PM permalink
    Quote: OnceDear

    I can see we need to revisit some super simple questions. Not about what you recall happening, but what actually happened.


    You can accept his recollection or not, but how would he be able to say with certainty, that what he recalls of this event from 20 years ago is not what actually happened?
    OnceDear
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    October 7th, 2021 at 4:23:37 PM permalink
    Quote: coachbelly

    You can accept his recollection or not, but how would he (or anyone) be able to say with certainty, that what he recalls of this event from 20 years ago is not what actually happened?

  • link to original post

    Quote: MDawg

    It should be "some sixty" hands in a row. If you want to PM me I will tell you my average bet and how much exactly I walked with, and you figure out how many hands in a row I won! I was unstoppable. We can talk about this more when I see you or on the phone. It is truthful.

    Looking back, I wonder if the fact that they were constantly changing decks or getting to the point where they would deal only one hand to me and then shuffle was actually what made my streak possible. In any case, yes, it did happen.

    And yes, I have posted about this at WOV before.

  • link to original post



    Bolding mine.
    Some sixty hands in a row did happen. That sir was MDawg's assertion.
    Any of us could assert or accept that he recalled wrongly. He had not done so by that point in the thread.
    Psalm 25:16 Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted. Proverbs 18:2 A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
    coachbelly
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    October 7th, 2021 at 4:28:00 PM permalink
    Quote: OnceDear

    Some sixty hands in a row did happen. That sir was MDawg's assertion


    Yes...that is his recollection.

    How could he say with certainty that's not what actually happened?
    OnceDear
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    October 7th, 2021 at 4:32:38 PM permalink
    Quote: coachbelly

    Yes...that is his recollection.

    How could he say with certainty that's not what actually happened?

  • link to original post

    Nobody is asking him to. He asserted that it happened. Only a while later did he accept that that was only how he recalled it.
    It was the original forceful assertion that was and is challenged. Many of his assertions go unchallenged. Maybe in future we will be more rigorous in doubting his memory.
    Psalm 25:16 Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted. Proverbs 18:2 A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
    OnceDear
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    October 7th, 2021 at 4:37:20 PM permalink
    Quote: MDawg

    all that has happened is that the odds for what has been claimed have been calculated, perhaps correctly, perhaps not, given that my recollection of what exactly happened in terms of how many hands in a row I won, is not precise.

  • link to original post

    Garbage in, garbage out.
    The odds for what has been claimed have been accurately calculated. That accuracy is not in question and is not qualified by the odds of what ACTUALLY happened. Nobody has or can calculate the odds of what actually happened because there is no reliable testimony as to what actually happened. None. Zero. Zilch.
    Psalm 25:16 Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted. Proverbs 18:2 A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
    coachbelly
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    October 7th, 2021 at 4:42:00 PM permalink
    Quote: OnceDear

    Only a while later did he accept that that was only how he recalled it.


    What are you talking about?

    He always accepted his recollection.
    OnceDear
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    October 7th, 2021 at 4:45:34 PM permalink
    Quote: MDawg

    I was beating the h out of the house at single deck, won sixty some hands in a row, they kept changing decks (although this had zero effect, I just kept winning every single hand anyway...


    This, and only this. assertion is being challenged.

    I don't believe it happened. Who does?
    IMHO, It did not happen.
    The poster that asserted it did happen is mistaken. His recollection, while good for 20 or so years, is incorrect.
    Psalm 25:16 Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted. Proverbs 18:2 A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
    coachbelly
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    October 7th, 2021 at 4:47:49 PM permalink
    Quote: OnceDear

    there is no reliable testimony as to what actually happened.


    What's not precise is how many hands in a row he won.

    That's why he used the qualifier "some" .

    But he can't reliably testify that a loss occurred mid-steak, because that's not his recollection.
    coachbelly
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    October 7th, 2021 at 4:52:31 PM permalink
    Quote: OnceDear

    This, and only this. assertion is being challenged.


    Haven't you asserted that, since you consider his recollection of an event from 20 years ago to be mistaken, then his recollections relayed in his current trip reports should be dismissed as mistaken as well?

    Maybe it wasn't you, that's why I asked.

    I'll go look for the quote, you can answer to the best of your recollection while I do.
    OnceDear
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    October 7th, 2021 at 4:57:30 PM permalink
    Quote: coachbelly

    What's not precise is how many hands in a row he won.

    That's why he used the qualifier "some" .

    But he can't reliably testify that a loss occurred mid-steak, because that's not his recollection.

  • link to original post

    'In a row' is 'In a row'
    Whether it's some 60 or 70 some. It's not in a row if there was ONE or more losses interspersed.
    Mdawg claimed some 60 in a row. That claim was in error.
    Which gives us reason to question his other statistically extremely unlikely claims, such as...
    "I once saw 49 consecutive baccarat hands with 48 Player wins, not counting ties. "

    One of MDawg's extremely clear and explicit assertions. So statistically unlikely that it should be dismissed as not having happened.
    Psalm 25:16 Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted. Proverbs 18:2 A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
    OnceDear
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    October 7th, 2021 at 4:59:58 PM permalink
    Quote: coachbelly

    Haven't you asserted that, since you consider his recollection of an event from 20 years ago to be mistaken, then his recollections relayed in his current trip reports should be dismissed as mistaken as well?

    Maybe it wasn't you, that's why I asked.

    I'll go look for the quote, you can answer to the best of your recollection while I do.

  • link to original post

    I don't recall saying that. I doubt I did.
    Psalm 25:16 Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted. Proverbs 18:2 A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
    Wellbush
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    October 7th, 2021 at 5:17:49 PM permalink
    I believe MD is a good casino player. The exactness of everything is impossible to verify unless I witness it myself. That never happens.

    He has been witnessed playing and winning like he says he does. I don't think I'm gullible. I'm happy to read and comment on his posts.
    All persons reading my posts gamble at their own risk, as I do. I don't ordinarily dispute math. I may dispute math I don't understand, or if I think it's faulty. I am not a conspiracy theorist.
    Dieter
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    October 7th, 2021 at 5:47:58 PM permalink
    Quote: Expectedvalue

    Quote: Dieter

    Quote: SOOPOO

    I’ll help you understand. The vast majority of posters here do not believe that MDawg has consistently crushed the casinos playing the negative expectation game, baccarat.

  • link to original post



    I understand what people are hung up about.

    I do not understand why.
  • link to original post





    You don’t understand why? This guy comes in and makes claims which outfit right defy even the highest odds. He makes counterintuitive claims and then doubles down on them. Post claims of having millions and talks in the third person. Brags to no end, where as most people would simply say my room at the hotel, he brags by constantly saying my suite. There is another lawyer in town. , actually two of them one is naqvi who has multiple billboards and the other I won’t name . Both have the same persona and want everyone to think they are the bear at everything they do. And always go out of their way to prove it
  • link to original post



    Yes, those would be more "what"s that people are hung up about.

    Why would someone get hung up on any of it?

    It doesn't affect my play. It probably doesn't affect yours.

    I don't see a pot of gold glimmering at the end of the gotcha rainbow.
    May the cards fall in your favor.
    Wellbush
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    October 7th, 2021 at 5:50:55 PM permalink
    Quote: mwalz9

    Quote: MDawg

    There are three kinds of people.

    1. The first, make things happen.

    2. The second, watch things happen.

    3. The third, wonder, What the h happened?

  • link to original post



    Im all 3 as well.

    1)I log into this forum to make things happen.

    2)I watch people post ridiculous claims on here.

    3)I wonder what the h*!! really happened.

    I usually do that daily.
  • link to original post

    joke of the day 😊
    All persons reading my posts gamble at their own risk, as I do. I don't ordinarily dispute math. I may dispute math I don't understand, or if I think it's faulty. I am not a conspiracy theorist.
    AxelWolf
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    October 7th, 2021 at 5:54:09 PM permalink
    Quote: Dieter

    Quote: Expectedvalue

    Quote: Dieter

    Quote: SOOPOO

    I’ll help you understand. The vast majority of posters here do not believe that MDawg has consistently crushed the casinos playing the negative expectation game, baccarat.

  • link to original post



    I understand what people are hung up about.

    I do not understand why.
  • link to original post





    You don’t understand why? This guy comes in and makes claims which outfit right defy even the highest odds. He makes counterintuitive claims and then doubles down on them. Post claims of having millions and talks in the third person. Brags to no end, where as most people would simply say my room at the hotel, he brags by constantly saying my suite. There is another lawyer in town. , actually two of them one is naqvi who has multiple billboards and the other I won’t name . Both have the same persona and want everyone to think they are the bear at everything they do. And always go out of their way to prove it
  • link to original post



    Yes, those would be more "what"s that people are hung up about.

    Why would someone get hung up on any of it?

    It doesn't affect my play. It probably doesn't affect yours.

    I don't see a pot of gold glimmering at the end of the gotcha rainbow.
  • link to original post

    So are you asking why people care about getting to the truth of things and not blindly just believe outrageous claims?
    ♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
    coachbelly
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    October 7th, 2021 at 5:54:40 PM permalink
    Quote: OnceDear

    This, and only this assertion is being challenged.


    That statement is disingenuous...everything is being challenged, based on an opinion that MDawg's recollection of all details of an event from some 20 years ago is somewhat mistaken.

    Quote: OnceDear

    I think he damaged his credibility just a little. It's that same credibility that supports his every assertion, his every session report.



    Quote: OnceDear

    There is nothing wrong with quoting a somewhat flawed memory in an anecdote. But it does taint our perception of previous or subsequent anecdotes.



    Quote: OnceDear

    Each time you make that claim, we will remind ourselves here.



    Quote: Expectedvalue

    His exact memory with all stories is now questioned in at least this posters mind.

    redietz
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    teliot
    October 7th, 2021 at 6:00:23 PM permalink
    Here's some WHYs, obvious as they are:

    1) It undoubtedly affects the way SOME readers play. Just look at Wellbush and Marcus. Some people actually care about others.
    2) It undermines the credibility of the entire forum.
    3) One of the reasons it undermines the credibility of the entire forum is because the forum has become a billboard for these claims. Does anyone really post more than MDawg?
    4) It alienates and denigrates the accomplishments and expertise of people who have actually won lifetime gambling.

    I cannot believe a mod would actually be, or pretend to be, baffled at the WHYs, obvious as they are. It's either completely disingenuous or completely naive.
    "You can't breathe dead hippo waking, sleeping, and eating, and at the same time keep your precarious grip on existence."
    Dieter
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    October 7th, 2021 at 7:27:41 PM permalink
    Quote: redietz

    Here's some WHYs, obvious as they are:

    1) It undoubtedly affects the way SOME readers play. Just look at Wellbush and Marcus. Some people actually care about others.
    2) It undermines the credibility of the entire forum.
    3) One of the reasons it undermines the credibility of the entire forum is because the forum has become a billboard for these claims. Does anyone really post more than MDawg?
    4) It alienates and denigrates the accomplishments and expertise of people who have actually won lifetime gambling.

    I cannot believe a mod would actually be, or pretend to be, baffled at the WHYs, obvious as they are. It's either completely disingenuous or completely naive.

  • link to original post



    1) Dubious. People are going to play the way they want.
    2) Maybe. This is page 35 or 36 of arguing over a memory of a 20 year old card game. That should be troubling enough.
    3) Has it? Most of the claims are relegated to the back pages, unless discussion persists.
    4) Valid. Say you don't believe it, say it's a sextillion to one event (or whatever the math says).

    Thanks for humoring my curiosity.
    May the cards fall in your favor.
    AxelWolf
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    October 7th, 2021 at 8:12:03 PM permalink
    From WOO Ask The Wizard.

    MDAWG FROM XXXXXXXXXXX

    Q: I once saw 49 consecutive baccarat hands with 48 Player wins, not counting ties. What is the probability of that per shoe?

    The Wizard
    A: The average shoe has 80.884 total hands. The probability of a Tie is 0.095156, so if we take those out we can expect 73.18740 hands per shoe, not counting ties.

    The probability of any 49 consecutive hands, not counting ties, having 48 Player wins is 1 in 21,922,409,835,345. However, there are 25.1874 possible starting points for these 49 hands, to make estimate. Thus, the probability of seeing the aforementioned event in a shoe is 1 in 870,371,922,467. This is not a hard and fast answer, but what I feel is a very good estimate.
    -------------------------------------------------------------
    I'm seeing a trend here. One must ask themselves, how accurate is this account?
    ♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
    lilredrooster
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    October 8th, 2021 at 5:40:16 AM permalink
    ___________


    despite all the nonsense here at least there is solid info coming from the leader, the Mods and a few others who beat down the voodoo claims

    Mission is great at this, I don't know where he gets the patience for it - I certainly don't have it

    there is another gambling forum where the leader is a voodoo practitioner______________that's really, really bad

    so, we do have some things to be thankful for here


    .
    Please don't feed the trolls
    Wellbush
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    October 8th, 2021 at 5:51:59 AM permalink
    Quote: redietz

    Here's some WHYs, obvious as they are:

    1) It undoubtedly affects the way SOME readers play. Just look at Wellbush and Marcus. Some people actually care about others.

    doesn't effect my play. I got my own strategy.

    I'm fully responsible for my own foray into gambling. So should everyone else be.

    It's also not MD's responsibility to warn gamblers about the dangers of gambling. That's WOV's responsibility, and they're doing it how and when they want to.
    Quote: redietz

    2) It undermines the credibility of the entire forum.

    I don't think so.
    Quote: redietz

    3) One of the reasons it undermines the credibility of the entire forum is because the forum has become a billboard for these claims. Does anyone really post more than MDawg?

    maybe more people visit the forum due to MD
    Quote: redietz

    4) It alienates and denigrates the accomplishments and expertise of people who have actually won lifetime gambling.

    why? How?

    Quote: redietz

    I cannot believe a mod would actually be, or pretend to be, baffled at the WHYs, obvious as they are.

    I'm making the point your arguments are seriously overstated🤷
    Quote: redietz

    It's either completely disingenuous or completely naive.

  • link to original post

    All persons reading my posts gamble at their own risk, as I do. I don't ordinarily dispute math. I may dispute math I don't understand, or if I think it's faulty. I am not a conspiracy theorist.
    MDawg
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    October 8th, 2021 at 8:55:33 AM permalink
    People who don't get out much aren't going to see much. As well we might have some confirmation bias going on here - if my experience at table games is limited or revolves around losing I'm going to think it's harder to win. Doesn't change what happened, just affects the likelihood of acceptance of it.

    In any case, what happened actually happened and the chips I pocketed as a result of the streak were quite real.
    Last edited by: MDawg on Oct 8, 2021
    I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people. https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
    Wellbush
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    October 8th, 2021 at 11:39:50 AM permalink
    OnceDear seems to be suggesting that MD has seriously walked back his claim re 60 winning hands in-a-row. I don't think MD has walked back his claim much at all. Just saying 🤷
    All persons reading my posts gamble at their own risk, as I do. I don't ordinarily dispute math. I may dispute math I don't understand, or if I think it's faulty. I am not a conspiracy theorist.
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