Chasing Quads instead of Royals
June 24th, 2022 at 6:53:44 AM
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Two random videos, no context: zero interest. Ciao.Quote: rektfasthttps://viewsync.net/watch?v=cv_TXmPFo9o&t=60&v=rtWUeSdXoQ0&t=0&mode=solo
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Psalm 25:16
Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted.
Proverbs 18:2
A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
June 24th, 2022 at 6:55:55 AM
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Well for starters they're both card-themed roguelikes in which a player tries to maximize the use of his limited resources to survive as long as possible against an unwinnable situation
June 24th, 2022 at 7:37:50 AM
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Quote: rektfast
It's a ROGUELIKE.
"Roguelike is a subgenre of role-playing computer games tradionally characterized by a dungeon crawl through procedurally generated levels, turn-based gameplay, grid-based movement, and permanent death of the player character."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roguelike
Procedurally generated levels: random five-card hands.
Turn-based gameplay: choosing which cards to keep.
Permanent death of the player character: bankruptcy.
Everyone is scoring VP wrong. Professional roguelike players don't take the high scores from all their runs and add them together. That makes no sense! The objective of a roguelike is to stay alive as long as possible against impossible odds, the .5% casino take!
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Do "professional roguelike players" fund their future games with the proceeds from prior games? I'm not sure. I haven't looked into playing rogue as a business. I think that single run scores are likely not fungible in the same way that cash money is.
There may be some broad similarities. There are certainly specific differences.
Quote: a snippet of Roguelets A B C
Drink no wine and smoke no stogies;
He just love to eat them roguies.
Boom-de-yada.
Your ideas certainly represent a novel departure from established effective practices.
Best of luck as you fool around and find out test your assumptions.
May the cards fall in your favor.
June 24th, 2022 at 7:57:35 AM
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Look, my friends were all professional Magic: the Gathering players.
I made all-in day trading calls that would have made people 500%. (I would reproduce them here, but they were in private Telegrams. I could screenshot Coinbase receipts but people would just assume it was Photoshopped) We're in a bear market and I'm still up 2.17 times my initial, lul
Seriously, I used to stream video games 10 hours a day. I was a game journalist. I have probably 1000 hours in DOTA 2.
I'm not suggesting that video poker is similar to a roguelike. I'm TELLING YOU that video poker is a roguelike.
Now am I saying that video poker is literally Magic: the Gathering Shandalar or FTL? No. But the strategy would be the same
I made all-in day trading calls that would have made people 500%. (I would reproduce them here, but they were in private Telegrams. I could screenshot Coinbase receipts but people would just assume it was Photoshopped) We're in a bear market and I'm still up 2.17 times my initial, lul
Seriously, I used to stream video games 10 hours a day. I was a game journalist. I have probably 1000 hours in DOTA 2.
I'm not suggesting that video poker is similar to a roguelike. I'm TELLING YOU that video poker is a roguelike.
Now am I saying that video poker is literally Magic: the Gathering Shandalar or FTL? No. But the strategy would be the same
June 24th, 2022 at 9:03:10 AM
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I'm sure you've done very well.for yourself in the past.
I am not sure your expertise directly translates into this endeavour.
I am not sure your expertise directly translates into this endeavour.
May the cards fall in your favor.
June 24th, 2022 at 1:18:18 PM
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In day trading people set stop-losses and limit orders all the time. Is that a "betting system" too? Are people going to argue that it's mathematically unsound?
Why not set triggered cash-out and buy-in numbers for a video poker bankroll? It's almost literally the same thing. Your VP bankroll is like a stock chart. You sell (leave the machine) when it's up.
VP is already the safest game out there other than keeping your money in the bank and collecting $.0000000001 annual interest. Why not apply a betting system? The worst case scenario is nothing happens.
Now, Martingale and Paroli are stupid and don't work, but there is surely some mathematical equation that would be superior to assuming you have infinite money and time.
https://towardsdatascience.com/bringing-deep-neural-networks-to-slay-the-spire-a2971d5a5115
Read this quote from the following article: Evaluating a card based on the average damage reduced in a fight if a player adds the card to their deck is an unbiased approach to create decks relative to these deck sets. Providing this metric to player’s helps them make the best possible choice at each decision node.
You see? "Average damage reduced in a fight." The "fight" is sustaining your finite bankroll over a potentially infinite period of time. If you were teaching an AI to learn video poker, it would need to know how much money (hit points) it has left before choosing which cards to keep. As your bankroll declines, your time preference increases!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PgFjo4RL6kA
Why not set triggered cash-out and buy-in numbers for a video poker bankroll? It's almost literally the same thing. Your VP bankroll is like a stock chart. You sell (leave the machine) when it's up.
VP is already the safest game out there other than keeping your money in the bank and collecting $.0000000001 annual interest. Why not apply a betting system? The worst case scenario is nothing happens.
Now, Martingale and Paroli are stupid and don't work, but there is surely some mathematical equation that would be superior to assuming you have infinite money and time.
https://towardsdatascience.com/bringing-deep-neural-networks-to-slay-the-spire-a2971d5a5115
Read this quote from the following article: Evaluating a card based on the average damage reduced in a fight if a player adds the card to their deck is an unbiased approach to create decks relative to these deck sets. Providing this metric to player’s helps them make the best possible choice at each decision node.
You see? "Average damage reduced in a fight." The "fight" is sustaining your finite bankroll over a potentially infinite period of time. If you were teaching an AI to learn video poker, it would need to know how much money (hit points) it has left before choosing which cards to keep. As your bankroll declines, your time preference increases!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PgFjo4RL6kA
July 9th, 2022 at 11:00:22 AM
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I thought about this thread the other night when I was dealt flush w/ 4 to the RF on 5-play. Lucky for me I followed the wizard's math instead of taking the guaranteed $150.
If I did the math right on your strategy for beating a negative game is to get quads every 391 hands on average instead of every 423 hands. I think the better strategy would be to use perfect strategy and get lucky to average quads every 391 hands.
If I did the math right on your strategy for beating a negative game is to get quads every 391 hands on average instead of every 423 hands. I think the better strategy would be to use perfect strategy and get lucky to average quads every 391 hands.
July 9th, 2022 at 11:06:50 AM
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I apologize, I explained my J or B betting system really badly.
I perform technical analysis on our bankroll as though it were a stock chart and cash out when it's 10-20% up on the session. Usually this would mean stopping immediately after hitting quads in your 423-hand session. You consider each run a separate instance and aim to cash out each session in the green by playing perfect strategy until your session bankroll is below 50% in which case you favor short-term profit over long-term draws like three to a royal.
I am absolutely convinced that with a betting system you can improve VP profits.
I would codify this into a mathematical system but lack the knowledge to do so. But I do know that there is something to this since VP is identical to other roguelike games or even just playing the stock market.
I perform technical analysis on our bankroll as though it were a stock chart and cash out when it's 10-20% up on the session. Usually this would mean stopping immediately after hitting quads in your 423-hand session. You consider each run a separate instance and aim to cash out each session in the green by playing perfect strategy until your session bankroll is below 50% in which case you favor short-term profit over long-term draws like three to a royal.
I am absolutely convinced that with a betting system you can improve VP profits.
I would codify this into a mathematical system but lack the knowledge to do so. But I do know that there is something to this since VP is identical to other roguelike games or even just playing the stock market.
July 9th, 2022 at 11:12:16 AM
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If I played 423 hands at $1.25 per hand, that'd be $528.75 total bet, divide by $6/point equals 88 session points. Quads pays $31.25 at 125 coins, or $62.50 at 250 coins, or higher for other games. I think playing Jacks or Better is a better idea if trying to win a certain free play amount back. I'm going with $10 per 1 quarter bet. So if I win a $50 free play, I could play 5 quarter coins, play 8-9 session points and cash-out anytime I get to over 200 credits after that and not have to go way down trying to win quads.
If I win $250 in free play, that'd be 5 sessions of $50 buy-ins at 5 x 25 cents per hand.
If I win $250 in free play, that'd be 5 sessions of $50 buy-ins at 5 x 25 cents per hand.
Last edited by: ChumpChange on Jul 9, 2022
July 9th, 2022 at 11:58:22 AM
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Jacks or Better is the only game I know how to play optimally and it is the simplest to explain this system.
Every practice attempt I make using this system and quitting while ahead I usually end up +$200 from the $1000 starting amount. I think 20% up is the max you should expect from a session and obviously is better than playing the stock market and having to pay taxes on every transaction. Even playing like a complete idiot and making bad holds, you are usually up 20% at one point during a given session.
I honestly think that after taxes and fees I would have been better off just using a betting system with Jacks or Better than playing the crypto market.
Like I said, most of Rob Singer's special plays are retarded, but he is correct that you are supposed to manage your bankroll on a per-session basis. Nobody plays slots and assumes that they are going to keep playing forever at max bet—that's a retarded assumption. The "long run" is a logical fallacy.
Every practice attempt I make using this system and quitting while ahead I usually end up +$200 from the $1000 starting amount. I think 20% up is the max you should expect from a session and obviously is better than playing the stock market and having to pay taxes on every transaction. Even playing like a complete idiot and making bad holds, you are usually up 20% at one point during a given session.
I honestly think that after taxes and fees I would have been better off just using a betting system with Jacks or Better than playing the crypto market.
Like I said, most of Rob Singer's special plays are retarded, but he is correct that you are supposed to manage your bankroll on a per-session basis. Nobody plays slots and assumes that they are going to keep playing forever at max bet—that's a retarded assumption. The "long run" is a logical fallacy.
July 9th, 2022 at 7:26:38 PM
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Are you saying that you haven’t had any losing sessions?
Expectation is the root of all heartache.
July 9th, 2022 at 7:41:16 PM
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I practice with this system on a simulator and am successful an extremely large percentage of the time. I've hit two royals in practice so I must have played around 100,000 hands maybe? Probably more
My closest casino is a hundred miles away, but I will test this system IRL later this month after I'm done moving.
Like I said, you should play at the highest possible denomination with enough bankroll for 423 x denomination x max bet and walk when you're up 10-20%.
Remember, your bankroll is like day trading. You don't have a "long run" because you have to close your positions by the end of the day. This is the only way to counteract the house edge. I was trying a similar strategy intraday trading the fluctuations of a stablecoin like XLM but just like with this, the required bankroll is enormous since the variance is so small. I am absolutely certain that if I had six figures instead of five to trade with that I could effectively have printed money with this strategy.
Incidentally, 423 hands makes the math easier since it's easy to remember you should hit 1 Quads, 4.7 Full Houses, 5 Flushes, and 5 Straights. There was some minor rounding so if those figures are incorrect please correct me.
I have to keep track on paper, but you could probably do some weird shit with your fingers to keep a running count.
Remember, it's like card counting in blackjack, but for the average number of made hands. The deeper you are in the set, the more shoe penetration.
People think it's the gambler's fallacy to believe you're "due," but it's more like a construction schedule. You need to know if you're ahead or behind in order to manage the project. If you're significantly behind, you may have to alter your play strategy to focus on short-term gains instead of draws.
My closest casino is a hundred miles away, but I will test this system IRL later this month after I'm done moving.
Like I said, you should play at the highest possible denomination with enough bankroll for 423 x denomination x max bet and walk when you're up 10-20%.
Remember, your bankroll is like day trading. You don't have a "long run" because you have to close your positions by the end of the day. This is the only way to counteract the house edge. I was trying a similar strategy intraday trading the fluctuations of a stablecoin like XLM but just like with this, the required bankroll is enormous since the variance is so small. I am absolutely certain that if I had six figures instead of five to trade with that I could effectively have printed money with this strategy.
Incidentally, 423 hands makes the math easier since it's easy to remember you should hit 1 Quads, 4.7 Full Houses, 5 Flushes, and 5 Straights. There was some minor rounding so if those figures are incorrect please correct me.
I have to keep track on paper, but you could probably do some weird shit with your fingers to keep a running count.
Remember, it's like card counting in blackjack, but for the average number of made hands. The deeper you are in the set, the more shoe penetration.
People think it's the gambler's fallacy to believe you're "due," but it's more like a construction schedule. You need to know if you're ahead or behind in order to manage the project. If you're significantly behind, you may have to alter your play strategy to focus on short-term gains instead of draws.
July 9th, 2022 at 8:03:49 PM
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Can you define “extremely large” for the group? I’m just asking you to quantify your positive results, rather than continuing to qualify them, as you have done so abundantly.
Expectation is the root of all heartache.
July 9th, 2022 at 8:12:13 PM
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I've had losing practice sessions where I played perfectly and still lost the entire $1000 bankroll, sure. The 99.5% payback isn't guaranteed, obviously.
How many sets of 423 would you want me to do as a sample size? While practicing after hitting quads I would just throw the paper with all my notes out, I didn't think to save them. Earliest I've hit quads and stopped was the first 50 hands.
How many sets of 423 would you want me to do as a sample size? While practicing after hitting quads I would just throw the paper with all my notes out, I didn't think to save them. Earliest I've hit quads and stopped was the first 50 hands.
July 9th, 2022 at 8:34:27 PM
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If people were to take all the extra time they use trying to come up with a system to beat -EV games and instead looked for stronger +EV plays they wouldn't have to worry about the "Long-run". Depending on how things are allocated, if you get a +2% or more advantage on VP you will see a fairly consistent profit in the short run. No need for all this session BR management crap, quitting while you are ahead/behind mumbo-jumbo, and moving around denomination nonsense. Simply play within your bankroll, put in the time, and count your profits.Quote: rektfastJacks or Better is the only game I know how to play optimally and it is the simplest to explain this system.
Every practice attempt I make using this system and quitting while ahead I usually end up +$200 from the $1000 starting amount. I think 20% up is the max you should expect from a session and obviously is better than playing the stock market and having to pay taxes on every transaction. Even playing like a complete idiot and making bad holds, you are usually up 20% at one point during a given session.
I honestly think that after taxes and fees I would have been better off just using a betting system with Jacks or Better than playing the crypto market.
Like I said, most of Rob Singer's special plays are retarded, but he is correct that you are supposed to manage your bankroll on a per-session basis. Nobody plays slots and assumes that they are going to keep playing forever at max bet—that's a retarded assumption. The "long run" is a logical fallacy.
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♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
July 9th, 2022 at 8:40:44 PM
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I think we all understand that one will have losing sessions. I guess I just needed to see that you acknowledge them, as I don’t believe you had yet. Your claims are meaningless (to anyone, including yourself, I hope) if you trash your results before analyzing them.
So, you don’t know how often you lost the full $1,000, or how many times you won 10-20%, but you hit 2 Royals in about 100,000 hands? That’s well within expectation for perfect play. The only problem is that I have no idea how often you’ve changed your strategy due to being down during a session…
How many sessions? Couldn’t say. To start with, I would try at least 10 RF cycles. This is the RF cycle based on the percentage of hands that you play using perfect strategy and the percentage played at “your quads over royal” strategy. Depending on the results, 10 RF cycles may just be the beginning.
So, you don’t know how often you lost the full $1,000, or how many times you won 10-20%, but you hit 2 Royals in about 100,000 hands? That’s well within expectation for perfect play. The only problem is that I have no idea how often you’ve changed your strategy due to being down during a session…
How many sessions? Couldn’t say. To start with, I would try at least 10 RF cycles. This is the RF cycle based on the percentage of hands that you play using perfect strategy and the percentage played at “your quads over royal” strategy. Depending on the results, 10 RF cycles may just be the beginning.
Expectation is the root of all heartache.
July 9th, 2022 at 8:51:26 PM
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I'm going to start recording once I bet real money. Hopefully in a couple weeks once all my stuff is packed. Plus I'll need the data for taxes, etc.
"No need for all this session BR management crap, quitting while you are ahead/behind mumbo-jumbo, and moving around denomination nonsense."
Technically any time you walk away from a VP machine in the green, you "won" the game.
Does anyone know about high frequency trading stablecoins? Identical strategies would work for VP. Video poker is essentially just investing in a stablecoin over an extremely short period of time.
Above is an intraday XLM price chart. Now imagine your session VP bankroll in the place of that chart. You are supposed to decide when to sell (walk away). The problem, as with VP, is that the oscillations are so minor that you need a very large amount of money in order to capitalize on them. If not for taxes, I would just trade stablecoins all day long, but I think VP is just better, especially with decent comps
"No need for all this session BR management crap, quitting while you are ahead/behind mumbo-jumbo, and moving around denomination nonsense."
Technically any time you walk away from a VP machine in the green, you "won" the game.
Does anyone know about high frequency trading stablecoins? Identical strategies would work for VP. Video poker is essentially just investing in a stablecoin over an extremely short period of time.
Above is an intraday XLM price chart. Now imagine your session VP bankroll in the place of that chart. You are supposed to decide when to sell (walk away). The problem, as with VP, is that the oscillations are so minor that you need a very large amount of money in order to capitalize on them. If not for taxes, I would just trade stablecoins all day long, but I think VP is just better, especially with decent comps
July 9th, 2022 at 9:06:01 PM
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I guess I exhausted my allotment of questions…
Just know that you don’t have to settle for full pay Jacks or Better plus comps. There are better deals to be had, system or not. Best of luck!
Just know that you don’t have to settle for full pay Jacks or Better plus comps. There are better deals to be had, system or not. Best of luck!
Expectation is the root of all heartache.
July 9th, 2022 at 10:03:35 PM
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Technically any time you walk away from a VP machine in the red, you "lost" the game—the nice thing about playing with an excellent advantage and not some 9/6 with marginal comps is the fact that when you lose you actually win, and when you win, you win... It all comes close to what it's supposed to be over a large number of hands. Advantage+hands played correctly = profits. The more you play the closer to expectation you get.Quote: rektfast
Technically any time you walk away from a VP machine in the green, you "won" the game.
Last time I checked comps don't pay the bills or build bankrolls unless you can get some significant comp value and turn it into cash. The last time I checked that kind of stuff was few and far between.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
July 10th, 2022 at 6:13:39 AM
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Is there any way to automate perfect VP play and graph the bankroll? Then we could just run a simulator over and over and compare the charts. You would have to reset the bankroll to initial every time you hit quads though.
This is basically what I want to do: https://www.investopedia.com/articles/trading/05/scalping.asp
This is basically what I want to do: https://www.investopedia.com/articles/trading/05/scalping.asp
July 10th, 2022 at 8:02:19 AM
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Explain where the scalping comes in when playing Video Poker? And don't say hitting quads because that has nothing to do with scalping, it's just part of the cycle. If you want to scalp somthing related to gambling go scalp sports, that's a legit and profitable angle. If you believe you have a small advantage playing VP via comps then there's no need for anything fancy, just play the highest denomination you can within your bankroll.Quote: rektfastIs there any way to automate perfect VP play and graph the bankroll? Then we could just run a simulator over and over and compare the charts. You would have to reset the bankroll to initial every time you hit quads though.
This is basically what I want to do: https://www.investopedia.com/articles/trading/05/scalping.asp
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You would be significantly better off spending your time figuring out the players club marketing system at the places you are going to be playing.
I think we are being trolled, but hopefully someome legit might see this thread and think twice before venturing into somthing like this.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
July 10th, 2022 at 8:15:44 AM
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Quote: AxelWolfIf you believe you have a small advantage playing VP via comps then there's no need for anything fancy, just play the highest denomination you can within your bankroll.
Obviously people should always max bet and get player's rewards. I'm saying that people are misunderstanding what VP is. "Playing" video poker is the equivalent of watching a stock chart and deciding when to sell. When you put your money in the machine, you are triggering an oscillation that can temporarily rise above your initial but is guaranteed to eventually crash to zero due to the house edge. Therefore, you need to take short-term positions similar to day trading.
Every VP session is like a different stock chart you're investing in. Sometimes you hit quads or a straight flush early and the stock outperforms, so you cash out. Other times your bankroll falls to 50% initial and you cut your losses. You see what I mean?
People haven't beaten VP because they think it's all one long session, but that is a misunderstanding.
In the eighties, people played Dungeons & Dragons as a competitive game, trying to survive as long as possible on a delve before deciding when to head back to town (or if they beat the final boss and finished the adventure). Each separate party would compare how much gold and experience they had at the end, and that is the team that won.
You wouldn't take all the different runs and average them together like most people think of video poker: that makes no sense.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/D%26D_Championship_Series
July 10th, 2022 at 8:47:13 AM
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Quote: rektfast
In the eighties, people played Dungeons & Dragons as a competitive game, trying to survive as long as possible on a delve before deciding when to head back to town (or if they beat the final boss and finished the adventure). Each separate party would compare how much gold and experience they had at the end, and that is the team that won.
You wouldn't take all the different runs and average them together like most people think of video poker: that makes no sense.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/D%26D_Championship_Series
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If you are not competing in some sort of video poker contest, where your score is compared to the scores of other competitors to determine prize awards, this comparison seems inappropriate.
Most people, most of the time, do not play in this manner.
May the cards fall in your favor.
July 10th, 2022 at 9:34:02 AM
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[Sock redacted]
Last edited by: OnceDear on Jul 10, 2022
July 10th, 2022 at 9:36:03 AM
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Yeah that's why I wasn't keeping track of practice sessions: you could just cherrypick winning sessions. Once I'm playing for real cash I'll keep a log and see what happens
July 10th, 2022 at 9:40:04 AM
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Quote: iwinuloseyou claim you are ahead of the game, how many hands/hours played? what is the total bankroll at stake? how many total bankrolls have you cloned and never had to dip into your own cash? can you provide proof at real casino live money plays?
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No, I do not.
I foolishly attempted a strategy similar to the one you propose, and lost about $30k.
I do not recommend this course of action for those hoping to make money.
It is, however, your money, and you are welcome to squander it as you wish.
Best of luck in your endeavours.
May the cards fall in your favor.
July 10th, 2022 at 9:40:42 AM
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[Sock redacted]
Last edited by: OnceDear on Jul 10, 2022
July 10th, 2022 at 9:59:54 AM
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[Sock redacted]
Last edited by: OnceDear on Jul 10, 2022
July 10th, 2022 at 10:03:32 AM
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Thanks for the interest.
You see, most people think that "optimal play" in VP just means choosing the right cards to keep. That is only the beginning. The real strategy is when to cash out and what to do with the money.
If there is a good forum about day trading, we should ask them what they think of video poker and how they would beat it.
Off the top of my head, I would always sell a double top on a stock chart, which would be equated in VP to two quads close together possibly? Like I said, research technical analysis. You beat VP through technical analysis, not fundamental analysis like the standard strategy indicates.
You see, most people think that "optimal play" in VP just means choosing the right cards to keep. That is only the beginning. The real strategy is when to cash out and what to do with the money.
If there is a good forum about day trading, we should ask them what they think of video poker and how they would beat it.
Off the top of my head, I would always sell a double top on a stock chart, which would be equated in VP to two quads close together possibly? Like I said, research technical analysis. You beat VP through technical analysis, not fundamental analysis like the standard strategy indicates.
July 10th, 2022 at 10:52:02 AM
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I say there's nothing wrong with having win goals and stop losses, but I use correct strategy to the best of my ability.
July 10th, 2022 at 11:15:10 AM
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[Sock redacted]
Last edited by: OnceDear on Jul 10, 2022
July 10th, 2022 at 11:28:37 AM
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Quote: iwinuloseare you the same alan who interview Rob on youtube? that Rob has some far out ideas how the video poker engine runs =)
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Yes that's me. But I don't follow Rob's special plays. I only interviewed him about them to create a record of what they are.
July 10th, 2022 at 11:47:31 AM
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[Sock redacted]
Last edited by: OnceDear on Jul 10, 2022
July 10th, 2022 at 2:58:53 PM
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There are definitely times when you are supposed to use your remaining bankroll to make special plays, but the math required to know what plays to make and when is probably too difficult to perform mentally. Rob thinks you should go for long shots and draws when you're low on money to catch up, but I'm pretty sure you should do the opposite and only gamble on long shots when you have enough money to keep your session going for comps.
July 10th, 2022 at 3:41:13 PM
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Quote: rektfastThere are definitely times when you are supposed to use your remaining bankroll to make special plays, but the math required to know what plays to make and when is probably too difficult to perform mentally. Rob thinks you should go for long shots and draws when you're low on money to catch up, but I'm pretty sure you should do the opposite and only gamble on long shots when you have enough money to keep your session going for comps.
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I’m not sure why you think day trading and VP are similar.
Other than both involving money it is an Apples to Oranges comparison.
VP has a built in house edge.
There is no built in house edge in the stock market. There are transaction fees, but any investor with enough knowledge could preform well enough to make a profit even after the fees.
But in VP unless you find a game that returns more than 100% including comps & or promos you always end broke.
Multiply your bankroll by any percentage less than 100% enough times & you will always either end up broke or with less money that you started.
Sure you can get lucky in a session and end up with more money than you started that session with and quit, but so what?
If you have the right knowledge to make a profit day trading why not just keep your money in that?
If you wanna play video poker for fun then go for it.
If you think you can win more money than you lose quitting each session when you are ahead then best of luck with that.
July 10th, 2022 at 5:28:53 PM
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Quote: rektfastThere are definitely times when you are supposed to use your remaining bankroll to make special plays, but the math required to know what plays to make and when is probably too difficult to perform mentally. Rob thinks you should go for long shots and draws when you're low on money to catch up, but I'm pretty sure you should do the opposite and only gamble on long shots when you have enough money to keep your session going for comps.
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Rektfast some people think you are Rob Singer. I don't think you are because of the things you wrote. There are definite differences between you and Rob.
But here's an example of what you're talking about. Its from one of my interviews with Rob years ago.
He talks about going for a long shot royal -- in this case 1 out of 1,081 I think -- instead of going for quad queens, or at least holding 3 of a kind.
Rob is very specific about when to take the long shot -- and it's when he's desperate for a big win.
https://youtu.be/o_fSgz3Df_8
July 10th, 2022 at 5:34:28 PM
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Lots of Rob's old articles are still available on Internet archives. Even for people who disagree with his strategy, I suggest people read them.
Rob plays to win: I play to not lose. So we have the same idea, just in reverse.
Rob plays to win: I play to not lose. So we have the same idea, just in reverse.
July 11th, 2022 at 6:25:01 AM
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Quote: rektfastLots of Rob's old articles are still available on Internet archives. Even for people who disagree with his strategy, I suggest people read them.
Rob plays to win: I play to not lose. So we have the same idea, just in reverse.
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rektfast,
Wouldn't the reverse of "plays to win" be "plays to lose", or, more accurately, "plays not to win"?
Dog Hand
July 11th, 2022 at 8:33:05 AM
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I mean comp hustling like Stephen Paddock to use video poker as money laundering is essentially the same thing as "playing not to lose." VP is probably the only game where you could stay at the same nominal amount of money and still be +EV due to comps or free play or whatever.
I'm curious what machines Paddock played and if he just used optimal strategy or not. Presumably his bankroll would have been large enough to do stupid things like holding a kicker in games with higher variance, etc.
I'm curious what machines Paddock played and if he just used optimal strategy or not. Presumably his bankroll would have been large enough to do stupid things like holding a kicker in games with higher variance, etc.
July 11th, 2022 at 11:26:20 AM
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Quote: rektfastI mean comp hustling like Stephen Paddock to use video poker as money laundering is essentially the same thing as "playing not to lose." VP is probably the only game where you could stay at the same nominal amount of money and still be +EV due to comps or free play or whatever.
I'm curious what machines Paddock played and if he just used optimal strategy or not. Presumably his bankroll would have been large enough to do stupid things like holding a kicker in games with higher variance, etc.
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Why would you bring up Paddock?
July 11th, 2022 at 11:42:21 AM
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He was obviously quite good at VP, I'm curious if he had his own bankroll management and betting system
July 11th, 2022 at 11:48:25 AM
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Yahoo reported that “Paddock’s finances have become a significant focal point” in the authorities’ search for a motive. According to Yahoo, more than two hundred “casino or wire transactions by Paddock . . . were flagged for review by FinCEN, the U.S. government’s Financial Crimes Enforcement Network, which collects data to identify potential money laundering or covert terrorism financing.” Casinos are required by the federal government to follow a variety of regulations intended to prevent money laundering.
https://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/stephen-paddock-and-the-world-of-video-poker
So it's either the guns or the $10K CTRs.
https://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/stephen-paddock-and-the-world-of-video-poker
So it's either the guns or the $10K CTRs.
July 11th, 2022 at 11:53:43 AM
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Quote: rektfastHe was obviously quite good at VP, I'm curious if he had his own bankroll management and betting system
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You really picked a bad VP hero.
Try again.
July 11th, 2022 at 12:30:50 PM
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High-level poker players change their betting strategy similar to what rektfast has been advocating when they are in tournaments. They will not chase what they perceive as hands in which they have a small EV advantage if the wagers are large and increase their chances of busting out. Why call someone with all your chips when you expect to have only a 51/49 advantage? It's very important to not lose all (or most) of your chips, and the concept of expected value misses that entirely.
This is particularly true when there are pay-out jumps involved (late in the tournament). So, poker players have developed some decision models (such as the Integrated Chip Model) that only weakly consider the EV of the bet (or don't consider it at all) but rather focus on the stack sizes of the players and payout structure.
I recommend that people read some articles or books on advanced poker theory (such as ICM and Game Theory Optimal for tournaments) to understand how EV is not the only criterion when you have a finite stack.
Note: On the other hand, in cash games poker players use EV to make decisions because they can re-buy - i.e., they essentially have infinite stacks to gamble with.
This is particularly true when there are pay-out jumps involved (late in the tournament). So, poker players have developed some decision models (such as the Integrated Chip Model) that only weakly consider the EV of the bet (or don't consider it at all) but rather focus on the stack sizes of the players and payout structure.
I recommend that people read some articles or books on advanced poker theory (such as ICM and Game Theory Optimal for tournaments) to understand how EV is not the only criterion when you have a finite stack.
Note: On the other hand, in cash games poker players use EV to make decisions because they can re-buy - i.e., they essentially have infinite stacks to gamble with.
Last edited by: gordonm888 on Jul 11, 2022
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
July 11th, 2022 at 12:52:06 PM
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Yeah, recently I was just playing one of those crappy online poker games (not for real money since it's illegal where I live like everything else). In a Hold 'em tournament I was dealt 5h6h on the very first hand in decent position and three players went all-in.
I was certain I was crushed, but technically the correct thing to do is call with your suited connectors because of the pot odds (I would have been getting five to one or something). Because it was a tournament, however, that would have meant gambling my place in the standings for a middling chance of victory.
I am pretty sure I folded, half the players busted out, and later on I finished 3rd.
My suited connectors would have won the hand anyway, for the record.
I was certain I was crushed, but technically the correct thing to do is call with your suited connectors because of the pot odds (I would have been getting five to one or something). Because it was a tournament, however, that would have meant gambling my place in the standings for a middling chance of victory.
I am pretty sure I folded, half the players busted out, and later on I finished 3rd.
My suited connectors would have won the hand anyway, for the record.
July 11th, 2022 at 6:51:44 PM
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Quote: AlanMendelsonQuote: rektfastHe was obviously quite good at VP, I'm curious if he had his own bankroll management and betting system
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You really picked a bad VP hero.
Try again.
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You are right, that and a another guy that has to buy white prop money to post pics of his winnings online.
July 11th, 2022 at 7:39:32 PM
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That's fair, I don't know any other people who played VP all day off the top of my head. I'm sure that anyone who no-lifes the game will have useful AP knowledge but obviously most people don't share that kind of info
July 12th, 2022 at 6:38:15 AM
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Quote: rektfastThat's fair, I don't know any other people who played VP all day off the top of my head. I'm sure that anyone who no-lifes the game will have useful AP knowledge but obviously most people don't share that kind of info
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I know many people that play video poker about 4 hours a day seven days a week and they have zero AP knowledge. Just a bunch of degenerate ploppies.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
July 12th, 2022 at 9:30:04 AM
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Quote: DRichQuote: rektfastThat's fair, I don't know any other people who played VP all day off the top of my head. I'm sure that anyone who no-lifes the game will have useful AP knowledge but obviously most people don't share that kind of info
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I know many people that play video poker about 4 hours a day seven days a week and they have zero AP knowledge. Just a bunch of degenerate ploppies.
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Here we go again: it's the "if you're not an AP you must be a ploppie" argument.
July 12th, 2022 at 9:33:07 AM
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Quote: AlanMendelsonQuote: DRichQuote: rektfastThat's fair, I don't know any other people who played VP all day off the top of my head. I'm sure that anyone who no-lifes the game will have useful AP knowledge but obviously most people don't share that kind of info
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I know many people that play video poker about 4 hours a day seven days a week and they have zero AP knowledge. Just a bunch of degenerate ploppies.
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Here we go again: it's the "if you're not an AP you must be a ploppie" argument.
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That may be the case for some, but I personally know these people and can tell you they are ploppies. I have probably spent hundreds of hours with these people and I think I have a pretty good read on them.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
