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ChumpChange
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June 22nd, 2022 at 12:58:59 PM permalink
Yeah well the floor VP machines pay 8/5 while the High Limit machines pay 9/5 on Jacks or Better. If you play the $1 denom machines and you can't get 9/5 on the floor, go to the High Limit room,

I just went through the Wizard's site for Video Poker payouts and my local high limit room is in the 98%-99% payback range.
https://wizardofodds.com/games/video-poker/basics/#game-return-calculator

If I'm chasing Quads, the 9/7 Double Bonus pays 99.1%, the 9/6 Double Double Bonus pays 98.98%, the 9/6/4 Triple Double Bonus pays 98.154%, and the 9/5/3 Triple Triple Bonus pays 98.61%. Since I'm new to VP, I don't understand these names of games. There's a Deuces Double Double Bonus (25/15/9) game for 6 coins that isn't quite in the Wizard's calculation sphere that I'm guessing is around 99%.
Last edited by: ChumpChange on Jun 22, 2022
ChumpChange
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June 22nd, 2022 at 1:17:02 PM permalink
Quote: rektfast

Well, everyone knows Martingale is flawed. Have people tested every betting system with VP to see if one works? I guess Paroli doesn't work either since it's just Martingale in reverse.

What if you think of hitting quads or not in 423 hands like playing the pass line in craps? That should be a similar enough comparison.
link to original post



Losing 11 odds bets to winning 3 odds bets leaves an 8 bet difference.
rektfast
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June 22nd, 2022 at 6:47:50 PM permalink
I am tentatively going to say that Paroli would be superior to Martingale for this system, if only because playing VP and doubling down on every loss will get your car repoed. Both are trash, however, and I am open to any other ideas.

So right now we assume perfect VP play and 423 times the wager in bankroll. Bring a notebook and tally your hands (royals, quads, flushes, boats, straights, basically anything that isn't a push) and compare to a chart that says how often each hand is expected to occur. You want to stop playing while you are ahead of the mathematically expected number of complete hands. For simplicity's sake we'll talk about standard Jacks or Better.

Royal Flush 1 / 40,000
Four of a kind 1 / 423
Full House 1 / 90
Flush 1 / 85
Straight 1 / 80
Straight Flush 1 / 9,150

Remember, we're only playing up to 423 hands. So we should expect 1 Quads, 4.7 Full Houses, 5 Flushes, and 5 Straights. RF and SF are statistical anomalies and would probably put your bankroll in the green anyway, so you would stop playing if you hit those just as though you had hit quads.

Most important is to know how deep you are into the 423 hand set (the equivalent of shoe penetration in card counting, but instead of counting cards obviously we're counting the types of hands we end up with). If you ever hit quads or better and the resulting hand puts your bankroll in the green, you stop and mark the set as a "win." If not, you play out the 423 hand set and mark it as a "loss."

Every won set, you double your bet and start over again. On a lost set, your wager remains the same. At three consecutive sets won, stop playing.

If your session bankroll falls below 50%, you are considered bloodied and should mitigate the damage by using special plays to save money until you're back above 50%, at which point you resume mathematically perfect play. If anyone has any ideas about how to alter your strategy to stay solvent and keep earning comps with a dwindling session bankroll, let me know. I've never heard any good explanation of which special plays to use when.

Ironically video poker is almost exactly like playing D&D 4th Edition, Slay the Spire, or raiding in World of Warcraft. Most people don't realize that your hit points (bankroll) are a resource: arguably the most important resource in VP. If I have one hit point (credit) left, I'm not going to fight the monster (go for a draw over a pair) regardless of what your stupid poker calculator says.

Why don't video poker calculators take your remaining money into account?

Because they're wrong!
ChumpChange
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June 22nd, 2022 at 7:11:31 PM permalink
You could double your denomination for every 200 coins you're down in the session.
$1 until -$200
$2 until -$600
$5 until -$1,600
$10 until -$3,600
$25 until -$8,600
Get this far you lost. If you win, reduce your denom based on the chart above.
Win to above $200, cash out and start over.
It really randomizes what denom you'll hit the Royal Flush or Straight Flush on.
Dieter
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June 22nd, 2022 at 7:37:26 PM permalink
Quote: rektfast

Why don't video poker calculators take your remaining money into account?

Because they're wrong!
link to original post



The hold calculators do not account for bankroll.
There is an assumption that when you begin the hand, you can afford to play it.

There are other calculators that can help determine how much bankroll you need to survive the ups and downs of variance.
May the cards fall in your favor.
AxelWolf
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June 22nd, 2022 at 10:31:32 PM permalink
Quote: rektfast

Mathematically perfect long-run play ignores the time value of money. Even putting aside inflation, would you rather have a royal ten years from now or a flush today? Someone said once, if casinos throw people out for counting cards in blackjack, why don't they throw people out for playing machine-perfect VP?
link to original post

You don't have to play VP 100% perfect 100% of the time to make it profitable, as long as your mistakes cost you less than the EV you are earning, it will still be profitable.

Changing your strategy on VP isn't going to magically get you a royal today. Depending on how aggressive you are, you might get a royal 12%-20% faster. Each day you are playing incorrectly, you are just tossing money out the window in order to get your 4,000 coins a day earyer than you would normally.

lets assume it costs you $150 extra playing an altered strategy, is waiting an extra day for a $150 worthwhile? I think most people would say yes.


Quite a few people have been tossed out of casinos for "for playing machine-perfect VP" on +EV machines.

The difference between VP and blackjack is that there are very few machines that are beatable straight up and the ones that are are not really worth a significant amount. The casinos can eslily target someomes players card and restrict them from offers, or simply change the VP payables.They can't really do that so easy with Blackjack. They also belive they can fairly accurately track who's making money and how much on their machines.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
ChumpChange
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June 22nd, 2022 at 11:10:08 PM permalink
I got a suspicious looking non-Royal.



Well, I'm down 400 coins with no Quads and no Straight Flushes. Goodnight.
Last edited by: ChumpChange on Jun 22, 2022
rektfast
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June 23rd, 2022 at 8:41:04 AM permalink
Talking about special plays, what if we rated hands in terms of time preference? Only rating hands by EV is short-sighted.

From Wikipedia: A practical example is if Jim and Bob go out for a drink and Jim has no money so Bob lends Jim $10. The next day Jim comes back to Bob, and Jim says, "Bob, you can have $10 now, or at the end of the month when I get paid I will give you $15." Bob's time preference would change depending on if he trusted Jim and how much he needs the money now, thinks he can wait, or would prefer to have $15 at the end of the month than $10 now. Present and expected needs, present and expected income affect the time preference.

So when you are at full bankroll, you go for draws with high EV and low chances of hitting it big (royals), but when your bankroll is dwindling, you forego draws in favor of immediate money to recover back to a safer bankroll amount (like taking JJ and getting paid right now). Remember, even treading water in VP is +EV because you are probably earning comps and free drinks.

For example, if you have one credit left, you would no longer go for four-to-a-flush because the odds of making it are 1/5. If you had enough credits to afford 5 attempts to hit the flush on average, then you would go for it. The problem is that doing this math on the fly with penalties etc. and then switching back to regular EV play at >50% bankroll would become extremely complicated.

You see what I'm saying? So the idea of special plays is not inherently retarded, as most APs assert. Singer tries to explain this, but he does a really terrible job, so most people dismiss the idea completely. Actually, not only does he explain it badly, he proposes the exact opposite: taking more risky plays the lower your bankroll is. That is literally the reverse of what you are supposed to do.

The real question is WHAT special plays to make and WHEN.

For the record, I am calling this betting system "Quad Damage."
Last edited by: rektfast on Jun 23, 2022
Dieter
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June 23rd, 2022 at 10:04:34 AM permalink
Quote: rektfast

Talking about special plays, what if we rated hands in terms of time preference? Only rating hands by EV is short-sighted.



Holding 0 cards vs holding 5 cards represents a difference of less than 1 second for most players, perhaps as long as 3 seconds for entry level players.

Are you suggesting that it is an advantage to play suboptimally to save a few seconds?


Quote:

The real question is WHAT special plays to make and WHEN.
link to original post



Either you can afford to play, or you can't. Playing tight because you're afraid to lose keeps you from winning in the long run.

Personal story:
I made a really dumb hold a few years ago, before I "got it". I believe the hold was 5 to a dirty royal instead of 4 to a natural royal; a play which basically cost me $600 in a few seconds.
Yeah, I won on the hand ("game result" was higher value than "game cost"), but I made the foolish play because I was afraid of variance.
I couldn't understand why people were hassling me for being foolish instead of congratulating my win at the time.
I've straightened up since.

Best of luck.
May the cards fall in your favor.
rektfast
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June 23rd, 2022 at 10:26:02 AM permalink
I mean "time preference" in terms of keeping your current bankroll above zero so you keep earning comps and stay alive for the 423 hand set to hopefully hit Quads, not in terms of hands-per-hour.

Talking about HPH, however, I am infamously bad with fat-fingering and in spite of knowing the correct mathematical play almost every time, I still click through two-pairs because I'm an idiot and playing too fast. If anyone has any idea how to clean up inputs, let me know. I guess the answer is slowing down or reading the cards out loud. Maybe wait three seconds in between hands or something to double-check?

For example, I just had a practice set in the bathroom where I was playing obviously too fast, barely reading the cards at all and missing low pairs with only 97.8% accuracy, but I would still have been up because I hit quads early and would have stopped playing according to this betting system. So just mashing the DRAW button like League of Legends and then stopping when you're in the green is probably still better than playing VP forever with a .5% house edge.

I think most VP theory is wrong. Stuff like holding QT suited over AQ off is objectively correct, but mistakes like holding the AQ because you're literally playing while pissing in a urinal cost a miniscule amount of EV, and half the time when you make the wrong selection you still get a playable hand.

You see the chart at https://wizardofodds.com/games/video-poker/analyzer/

There is a column called "Variance." I am saying that when your session bankroll declines, you should opt for low variance hands (like Jacks, hence "Jacks or Better") over drawing to a bigger hand and going bust. This is basically Negreanu's Small Ball but applied to VP instead of Hold 'em.

Hell, playing VP wrong on purpose is still better than most slot machines.

More important than the "micro" of when to hold AT suited is the "macro" of what your bankroll strategy is and how to keep playing.

Like if the odds of getting paid on an low card open-ender are 1/6, shouldn't you have at minimum six hands in bankroll as insurance? What if your session only has enough credits for three more hands? Should you throw it away then?

I do think there is something to considering each session of VP a separate winnable game.

Just practiced the system on a simulator while not pissing and hit quads at hand 471 with three irrelevant option select "misplays" (about 99.5% accuracy) and ended with a $55 profit. We hit quads once, 6 full houses, 7 flushes, and 6 straights. I really like this system and will try it the next time I'm in at a casino.

The only problem is the bookkeeping required to pull this off looks comically suspicious.
Last edited by: rektfast on Jun 23, 2022
ChumpChange
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June 23rd, 2022 at 3:26:15 PM permalink
I started over, but I was at -$400 from the night before. I won a 4 of a kind, and I'm up 280 coins for the day.
If I was raising my denom from an above post, I'd be $600 down and starting to bet $5 coins, and winning 280 coins x $5 would be a $1,400 win, so I'd be $800 ahead. I could cash out now and start a new session at the $1 denom.


I could have lowered my denom back to $2 on a Full House win and I'd have a 280 coins x $2 or $560 win, so I'd still be $40 behind and reducing my denom back to $1. I've got to decide whether to put 200 credits in the machine for each denom set and stay at that denom until I get to a Quads or bust situation, or reducing my denom when I get to certain balances as described in my previous post.
Last edited by: ChumpChange on Jun 23, 2022
rektfast
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June 23rd, 2022 at 3:29:50 PM permalink
Sets, Two Pairs, and hands where you don't make any money all cancel out. They're literally just loading screens between quads.

You could teach a bonobo to play VP just selecting face cards and hitting draw over and over and as long as it walks away the second it hits four-of-a-kind it will still be better than most advantage players
KevinAA
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June 23rd, 2022 at 4:18:31 PM permalink
One time I saw someone making notes while playing VP. Security didn't bother him because the casino does not care. The reason they don't care because this is not going to help you. All you're doing is wasting your time.

If you change strategy and select cards with a lower EV, but lower variance, because you're getting low on funds, then you should stop gambling completely. You should never step foot into a casino if you get worried when your session bankroll gets low.
rektfast
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June 23rd, 2022 at 4:20:35 PM permalink
That's reassuring.

I am only interested in VP because I used to day trade crypto and although I made a retarded amount of money, I think that advantage play VP is strictly better than playing the rigged stock market. The worst case scenario in video poker is that you get 99.5% of your money back. The worst case scenario in the market is BlackRock buys your house and the IRS shoots your family during a no-knock raid
ChumpChange
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June 23rd, 2022 at 4:25:46 PM permalink
I just need some way to set my gambling diary on fire after getting so many W-2G's in the High Limit Room. I could just play Black Jack instead.
rektfast
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June 23rd, 2022 at 4:27:21 PM permalink
People make fun of Rob Singer but he was really smart to be a gambling writer and then write off transportation to and from the casino, food, etc. as business expenses
AxelWolf
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June 23rd, 2022 at 5:00:09 PM permalink
Quote: rektfast

People make fun of Rob Singer but he was really smart to be a gambling writer and then write off transportation to and from the casino, food, etc. as business expenses
link to original post

I like Rob singer, but his VP system is totally bunk. Also, you would have to go back and read the entire soga, but apparently he had been snowing Alan Menolson for year's regarding how he actually made his money. Rob Claims he was making it on the double up bug. ROB has missed 2 appointments with serious people willing to meet up and get proof of a few of his claim. He was offered a free 5k just to show up and yet he didn't.

Perhaps he has so much money that 5k is Chump change but if yo you indicate you are going to be somewhere at a certain time then you should show up. I'm certain that one person showed up(he had proof enough for me) and the other person would have shown up had their been a conformation by Rob.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
Dieter
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June 23rd, 2022 at 5:10:41 PM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

I like Rob singer, but his VP system is totally bunk. Also, you would have to go back and read the entire soga, but apparently he had been snowing Alan Menolson for year's regarding how he actually made his money.

link to original post



For the interested, much of the saga may be found here:
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/video-poker/34633-rob-singer-discuss/#post766655
May the cards fall in your favor.
ChumpChange
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June 23rd, 2022 at 5:11:51 PM permalink
I got my 2nd Quads. I was on my 2nd 200 coin buy-in of the 2nd session, so my denom was $2. I was at -$200 + -$300 = -$500 then I won 250 x $2 = $500, so I broke even on this session even though it says I'm down 100 coins on the screen. I'll just reset the screen back to 1,000 coins and reduce my denom to $1 again (if I keep playing).
rektfast
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June 23rd, 2022 at 5:25:20 PM permalink
Quote: ChumpChange

I got my 2nd Quads. I was on my 2nd 200 coin buy-in of the 2nd session, so my denom was $2. I was at -$200 + -$300 = -$500 then I won 250 x $2 = $500, so I broke even on this session even though it says I'm down 100 coins on the screen. I'll just reset the screen back to 1,000 coins and reduce my denom to $1 again (if I keep playing).

link to original post



Basically every session you hit quads you made money, right? I really think there's something to Quad Frequency as a VP attack. I know you're never "due" anything, but it's like most hands are just noise and the only things that matter are quads and royals.
ChumpChange
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June 23rd, 2022 at 5:32:17 PM permalink
There's some slippage due to my 200 coin buy-ins and odd denominations. So hitting a Quads may or may not finish my session ahead. If I was going to play the Wiz's game from 1,000 credits, down to 0 credits without hitting a Quad, I would have blown through all 5 denominations. Playing Double Double Bonus presents an opportunity to win beyond just 250 coins for Quads though, so maybe a big blowout loss could be made up for later.
rektfast
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June 23rd, 2022 at 5:38:03 PM permalink
I'll test another set of my 423-hand special play system and see what happens. Ironically you can't test with one of those 100 Play VP machines with lots of hands simultaneously because you have to stop and double the wager whenever you hit quads and keep a running count of the different hands you hit, plus make special plays to preserve bankroll, so the bookkeeping becomes impossible.

If anyone has played Slay the Spire, that is basically my VP strategy. Replace the HP with bankroll and the monsters with flush draws and you'll have an idea.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OqLbG5O8dag



For this "run" of Video Poker, a beatable video game, our final totals were 1 Four-of-a-Kind (the final boss), 5 Full Houses (compared to expected 4.7), 3 Flushes, and 3 Straights. As you can see, not only were we ahead of schedule on Boats, we also hit Quads within 119 hands. Because this success was so statistically anomalous, never even having to resort to special plays at <50% bankroll, we would have cashed out with a profit of 31% or started a new set at double the wager, having defeated Video Poker and seen the credits roll.
Last edited by: rektfast on Jun 23, 2022
ChumpChange
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June 23rd, 2022 at 6:49:08 PM permalink
I'll be getting nervous if quads don't show up for 2,000 hands.
rektfast
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June 23rd, 2022 at 6:51:56 PM permalink
I am 100% convinced that pro Magic: the Gathering players like Jon Finkel would be better than video poker APs if you explained to them that bankroll was like their life total and picking cards to keep was like taking a mulligan. The problem with VP players is they don't use the remaining bankroll as a resource when deciding what cards to keep and which to throw away. That would be like playing Magic: the Gathering and trying to do combat math without knowing how much Life you have left. Utter idiocy
ChumpChange
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June 23rd, 2022 at 7:00:11 PM permalink
I used to have my strategy on an index card that I'd bring to the VP machine. It'd tell me what cards to keep for the best advantage. I was playing bad payout machines so by the time I played 1,000 hands, I was a bit too far behind. I don't remember those strategy cards anymore and I'd have to scour the internet to rewrite them for the VP games I care to play. I think I ordered a strategy book by mail order long before I had internet, so if I find that I can compare it to internet age strategies.
rektfast
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June 23rd, 2022 at 7:02:31 PM permalink
The reason people haven't solved VP is because they're not approaching it as a video game. There are people who can beat XCOM 2: War of the Chosen on Iron Man. You think they couldn't figure out a system to make money on video poker, a game with a .5% house edge? That's practically a ROUNDING ERROR. People beat Dark Souls 3 without even being goddamn hit, how hard is a game based on five-card draw? Just embarrassing
ChumpChange
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June 23rd, 2022 at 7:05:28 PM permalink
Casino games aren't video games that aren't casino games. There's a whole universe of bankroll to learn that doesn't really apply to a grocery store checkout line.
ChumpChange
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June 23rd, 2022 at 7:27:31 PM permalink
I played for about 7 minutes this time instead of well over an hour and hit a Quad. Since I'm up less than $200, I'll keep going with the 3rd session at the $1 denom.
I'm trying Double Double Bonus Plus because I like to get paid 5 coins less on a Full House so I can get paid more for a 5-K Quad with an Ace kicker. /s
Actually the local machines pay 45 on a Full House, not 50.


An hour later, I'm down 200 credits. Time to change the denom to $2.
Half an hour later, I'm down another 200 credits. Time to change the denom to $5.
20 minutes later, I'm down another 200 credits. Time to change the denom to $10.
20 minutes later, I'm down another 140 credits before I hit a 4 of a kind for 400 credits.
So that's -$200 + -$400 + -$1,000 + -$1,400 = -$3,000 and I won $4,000, so I'm up $1,000 for the 3rd session.


I shouldn't consider a session over unless I hit Quads, a Straight Flush, or a Royal Flush, (or go bust through all 5 denoms). Quitting on an early win when I'm just over $200 ahead is a mistake, unless I'm leaving.
If I started a 4th session and pocketed that $180 from the 1st win in this post, I would have had a low balance of 80 credits left from 1,000 before I hit the 2nd Quads.
So that's -$200 + -$400 + -$1,000 + -$2,000 + -$3,000 = -$6,600 and I would have won $10,000 (400 x $25), so I'd be ahead $3,400. But I was so close to going bust it isn't funny.
Last edited by: ChumpChange on Jun 23, 2022
unJon
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OnceDear
June 23rd, 2022 at 8:21:06 PM permalink
I can’t take this thread seriously any more. Best of luck.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
rektfast
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June 23rd, 2022 at 8:33:33 PM permalink
I can't take seriously anyone whose proposal to beat a game with a .5% house edge is "play forever as though your bankroll were infinity" instead of "hit quads and buy a bottle of jack"

VP is not Minecraft, you are not supposed to play it forever. VP is Press Your Luck and your objective is to cash out when your return is overperforming what would be mathematically expected
OnceDear
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June 24th, 2022 at 1:06:49 AM permalink
Quote: rektfast

I can't take seriously anyone whose proposal to beat a game with a .5% house edge is "play forever as though your bankroll were infinity" instead of "hit quads and buy a bottle of jack"

VP is not Minecraft, you are not supposed to play it forever. VP is Press Your Luck and your objective is to cash out when your return is overperforming what would be mathematically expected
link to original post

"Hit Quads and buy a bottle of Jack" is as fun a playing style as any. Playing a sub-optimal play as proposed in this thread may be more fun than perfect strategy, just as many money management systems can be more fun than flat betting. You pay your money, you take your choice. I quite like d'Alembert with £100 session bankroll and a £50 win goal. More fun than flat betting. But I still play correct strategy.
But it's also hard to take seriously a proposal to beat a game with a .5% house edge by "cash out when your return is overperforming what would be mathematically expected"
That's just a paraphrasing of 'Hit and run' 'quit while you are ahead' 'Have a Win Goal' ' Break up sessions'.
Fortunately, this is the BS* subforum where such BS* belongs. Here you can propose and advocate any strategy that you like.

To be clear, BS* = "Betting Systems"
Psalm 25:16 Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted. Proverbs 18:2 A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
rektfast
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June 24th, 2022 at 4:29:25 AM permalink
Most APs don't even know what genre the game of video poker is. If they don't even know what the game they're playing is, how are they going to beat it?

No, it's not a card game.

It's a ROGUELIKE.

"Roguelike is a subgenre of role-playing computer games tradionally characterized by a dungeon crawl through procedurally generated levels, turn-based gameplay, grid-based movement, and permanent death of the player character."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roguelike

Procedurally generated levels: random five-card hands.

Turn-based gameplay: choosing which cards to keep.

Permanent death of the player character: bankruptcy.

Everyone is scoring VP wrong. Professional roguelike players don't take the high scores from all their runs and add them together. That makes no sense! The objective of a roguelike is to stay alive as long as possible against impossible odds, the .5% casino take!

Every attempt (session) is a SEPARATE INSTANCE in which the objective is to maximize the value of your CURRENT BANKROLL. Meaning THE MONEY YOU CURRENTLY HAVE. Do you have infinite money? Then why are you using a betting system that ASSUMES YOU OWN A GOLD MINE?

Just taking lines of play that take for granted the bad input assumptions of playing with infinite bankroll over an infinite period of time is ASININE! Like I said, I play perfect strategy until hitting below 50% bankroll. That doesn't even happen unless you're at the nadir of the graph of the expected value of what ACTUALLY matters, the numbers of hands you made versus the mathematically expected amount.

You're not making misplays: you're staying alive until your luck balances out and you can leave in the green. The second your bankroll stabilizes, you go right back to keeping 2s 6s 4s and never hitting the straight flush like a good boy.

The Federal Reserve debases the US dollar ten percent a year!

How can there be a long run when not only are you fighting a house edge, but the CREDITS THEMSELVES are losing value?

No, wrong. VP is like Dungeons and Dragons. And what do you do after a successful dungeon delve? You go back to town and spend your gold on equipment: assets with positive cash flow.

Unless one of the steps in an AP's betting system is "Cash out and buy real estate and a gun," they are WRONG
unJon
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June 24th, 2022 at 4:40:35 AM permalink
Starting to sound like US Paper Games . . .
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
OnceDear
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June 24th, 2022 at 4:46:06 AM permalink
Quote: rektfast

Most APs don't even know what genre the game of video poker is. If they don't even know what the game they're playing is, how are they going to beat it?

No, it's not a card game.

It's a ROGUELIKE.

"Roguelike is a subgenre of role-playing computer games tradionally characterized by a dungeon crawl through procedurally generated levels, turn-based gameplay, grid-based movement, and permanent death of the player character."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roguelike

Procedurally generated levels: random five-card hands.

Turn-based gameplay: choosing which cards to keep.

Permanent death of the player character: bankruptcy.

Everyone is scoring VP wrong. Professional roguelike players don't take the high scores from all their runs and add them together. That makes no sense!

Every attempt (session) is a SEPARATE INSTANCE in which the objective is to maximize the value of your CURRENT BANKROLL. Meaning THE MONEY YOU CURRENTLY HAVE. Do you have infinite money? Then why are you using a betting system that ASSUMES YOU OWN A GOLD MINE?

Just taking lines of play that assume the bad input assumptions of playing with infinite bankroll over an infinite period of time is ASININE! Like I said, I play perfect strategy until hitting below 50% bankroll. That doesn't even happen unless you're at the nadir of the graph of the expected value of what ACTUALLY matters, the numbers of hands you made versus the mathematically expected amount.

You're not making misplays: you're staying alive until your luck balances out and you can leave in the green. The second your bankroll stabilizes, you go right back to keeping 2s 6s 4s and never hitting the straight flush like a good boy.

The Federal Reserve debases the US dollar ten percent a year!

How can there be a long run when not only are you fighting a house edge, but the CREDITS THEMSELVES are losing value?

No, wrong. VP is like Dungeons and Dragons. And what do you do after a successful dungeon delve? You go back to town and spend your gold on equipment: assets with positive cash flow.

Unless one of the steps in an AP's betting system is "Cash out and buy real estate and a gun," they are WRONG
link to original post


Ummm. Nope. I don't understand. All I perceive is advice to break sessíons after a win and to go spend. On the few occasions where VP is an Advantage play, with a player edge, the player will simply employ Kelly betting for as long as the play is worthwhile. He will not take a break to go spend his profit. The ap won't play into a disadvantage in the first place, except for amusement.
So... What's your advantage. How do YOU beat it or do you play it for the occasions where you cash out a profit and shrug off the times you lose your session bankroll...or are you one of those legends that never loses because of your special plays
Psalm 25:16 Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted. Proverbs 18:2 A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
rektfast
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June 24th, 2022 at 4:47:24 AM permalink
Let's take Diablo as an example. Say there is a hardcore Diablo 2 player who plays with permadeath on. He is sure to manage his health carefully so he doesn't die and lose his character, because that would mean the game is over and he lost.

"I'm an advantage Diablo 2 player," Wizard of Vegas says.
"Oh, really? What's your strategy?" xxBL00d4thabl00DGod14xx asks.
Wizard of Vegas replies, "Well, first I assume my character has infinite health..."

And they aren't special plays. When you are about to die in Diablo, you DRINK A POTION aka FAVOR HANDS THAT YOU ARE LIKELY TO HIT NOW, RATHER THAN IN TEN YEARS.
OnceDear
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June 24th, 2022 at 4:54:10 AM permalink
Quote: unJon

Starting to sound like US Paper Games . . .
link to original post

for fear of anything close to personal insult territory, I see what you mean. Rekfast may be serious or he may be having a laugh at our expense. For now he's within the rules and his posts are on tópic for this sub forum as described by Wizard
"All betting systems are worthless. However, for the mathematically challenged, here is a forum of your own."

If he knows how to beat VP. He's most welcome to just go and take all those riches that the casino want him to have.... But he seems more inclined to help us see the light. An odd, altruistic concept.
Psalm 25:16 Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted. Proverbs 18:2 A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
rektfast
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June 24th, 2022 at 4:56:37 AM permalink
I am completely serious, if your strategy is to become +EV with perfect play and comps in the long run then you are just losing money to currency debasement. If you're robbing a bank, is your plan to stay in the bank forever and never exit? How is staying in a casino forever any different?
OnceDear
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June 24th, 2022 at 5:04:21 AM permalink
Quote: rektfast

I am completely serious, if your strategy is to become +EV with perfect play and comps in the long run then you are just losing money to currency debasement. If you're robbing a bank, is your plan to stay in the bank forever and never exit? How is staying in a casino forever any different?
link to original post

I'm completely serious. What's the point of leaving the casino and spending your profit? On the days after you leave the casino with a loss, don't you simply go to the ATM and top up your session bankroll from your salary or savings. All you seem to be doing is taking your salary for a trip to the casino on the way to the store. When you win you can have more groceries. When you lose you have less. In aggregate. You will tend to have less because on aggregate you lose the house edge x the sum of wagers placed.... I ask again. Where is your advantage.
Psalm 25:16 Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted. Proverbs 18:2 A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
rektfast
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June 24th, 2022 at 5:10:09 AM permalink
The way to beat video poker is to redenominate your credits from US dollars to +EV assets and then use the positive cash flow to create a feedback loop. You need your passive APR to be greater than the casino house edge.

Something like Algorand used to provide more than .5% value a year by staking, but I am pretty sure they reduced it.

Also obviously you have to squeeze out extra value by not paying ATM fees, eating outside of the casino, etc.

But yes I am serious that you should ask professional roguelike players how they would attack VP.
OnceDear
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June 24th, 2022 at 5:17:16 AM permalink
Rekfast.... Simplest of questions.... Where are you going with this thread? You suggest a strategy of sub optimal play which reduces variance?... But it's sub optimal play.... Vis a Vis one where You will tend to lose money in aggregate. If the purpose is greater amusement and more sessions where you can boast a win, then fair enough. But so what.
I don't think any Ap works on the basis of infinite bankroll. We decide on a total bankroll at risk and if we have any sense, we constantly play a percentage of that which is proportional to house edge. if we have an advantage, we will eventually tend to wager more and vice versa. Dealing with variance is a whole different matter.
Hit and run and trying to have good sessions sort of implies that sessions matter. They don't.
Psalm 25:16 Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted. Proverbs 18:2 A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
OnceDear
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June 24th, 2022 at 5:19:22 AM permalink
Quote: rektfast

The way to beat video poker is to redenominate your credits from US dollars to +EV assets and then use the positive cash flow to create a feedback loop. You need your passive APR to be greater than the casino house edge.

Something like Algorand used to provide more than .5% value a year by staking, but I am pretty sure they reduced it.

Also obviously you have to squeeze out extra value by not paying ATM fees, eating outside of the casino, etc.

But yes I am serious that you should ask professional roguelike players how they would attack VP.
link to original post

nope... Not getting it. Where is your advantage. Where do you gain value? Why are you here chatting while you could be hitting the casinos with another VP session. As to professional roguelike players. I have no concept of that profession, nor any interest in it, no matter how often yo expound the idea.
Psalm 25:16 Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted. Proverbs 18:2 A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
rektfast
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June 24th, 2022 at 5:23:31 AM permalink
All VP systems ignore the time value of money. They pay lip service to the house edge, but fail to realize that you're allowed to make an edge yourself. Imagine for a moment that banks were still paying 18% interest like in the 80s. Suddenly the question of whether to take a pair now or a 20% chance at a flush is not so simple. If you get paid immediately, you would be able to immediately start generating additional income in order to overcome the casino's advantage. You see what I'm saying? VP simulators pay in credits, but casinos pay in dollars. You're allowed to spend dollars to make more dollars.
OnceDear
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June 24th, 2022 at 5:39:44 AM permalink
Quote: rektfast

All VP systems ignore the time value of money. They pay lip service to the house edge, but fail to realize that you're allowed to make an edge yourself. Imagine for a moment that banks were still paying 18% interest like in the 80s. Suddenly the question of whether to take a pair now or a 20% chance at a flush is not so simple. If you get paid immediately, you would be able to immediately start generating additional income in order to overcome the casino's advantage. You see what I'm saying? VP simulators pay in credits, but casinos pay in dollars. You're allowed to spend dollars to make more dollars.
link to original post

so. Let's see if I understand. your strategy is to visit a casino, win, then go and invest your winnings outside the casino where they generate profit?
What about those sessions where you lose, and the session that follows that.....
Where does VP or the casino add value? Why not just take your session bankroll to wherever you can profitably invest it. If you've found a way of getting a player advantage, you've not done much of a job of explaining it. You haven't said what you do when you have a losing session.


And what the heck have VP simulators got to do with anything
Psalm 25:16 Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted. Proverbs 18:2 A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
OnceDear
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June 24th, 2022 at 5:51:31 AM permalink
Quote: rektfast

No. But if you think of your bankroll like a sine wave, you want to cash out at the apex. So shouldn't we play few hands, but at very high bets per hand, and then just quit once you're ahead? I feel like just playing VP forever is a losing proposition even if with comps you can get slightly over 100% RTP. There has to be some way to limit the scope of the game and make it winnable.
link to original post

"like a sine wave
..."

I get it now.
You are an adherent to gamblers fallacy. Play while you are winning. Go outside while you would be losing, come back and play again when you are scheduled to win again. What could go wrong!?
Psalm 25:16 Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted. Proverbs 18:2 A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
OnceDear
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June 24th, 2022 at 5:53:53 AM permalink
Quote: rektfast

If it is based on an atomic clock or whatever you could probably rig the RNG by pulling the lever at equal milliseconds apart, right? People say slot machines tend to give out hand pays the same day and time over and over which implies it is not randomized properly
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people say the moon is made of cheese. People are not to be relied on.
Psalm 25:16 Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted. Proverbs 18:2 A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
rektfast
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June 24th, 2022 at 6:02:47 AM permalink
You can literally buy crypto on a cell phone in a casino and stake it for +EV.

And VP simulators don't have anything to do with anything, that's the point! VP simulators assume that you're chained to the VP machine like Plato's Cave and can never leave. Of course the game isn't winnable if you assume that. But in real life, you can cash out and buy stuff that generates an income.

Video poker is one component of an overall gambling strategy.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RRXbThKFCfw

In Payday 2, you are robbing a bank. Your objective is to pocket as much cash as possible, make a profit, and get out. If you stay too long, you will die in a shootout with the police. Good Payday 2 players run the mission over and over, making money each time. Each attempt at the mission is a separate instance. You don't win by staying in the same bank FOREVER and fighting escalating waves of cops until it's too late to get to the van.
DRich
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June 24th, 2022 at 6:17:11 AM permalink
OnceDear, give it up. This battle can not be won.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
AxelWolf
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June 24th, 2022 at 6:25:51 AM permalink
Very few, if any, professional VP players are messing around
with low .5-1% advantages. They are usually playing with higher edges than that.

You are super late to the party since VP is one of the least profitable Advantage plays methods around nowadays.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
OnceDear
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June 24th, 2022 at 6:29:40 AM permalink
Quote: rektfast

You can literally buy crypto on a cell phone in a casino and stake it for +EV.

And VP simulators don't have anything to do with anything, that's the point! VP simulators assume that you're chained to the VP machine like Plato's Cave and can never leave. Of course the game isn't winnable if you assume that. But in real life, you can cash out and buy stuff that generates an income.

Video poker is one component of an overall gambling strategy.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RRXbThKFCfw

In Payday 2, you are robbing a bank. Your objective is to pocket as much cash as possible, make a profit, and get out. If you stay too long, you will die in a shootout with the police. Good Payday 2 players run the mission over and over, making money each time. Each attempt at the mission is a separate instance. You don't win by staying in the same bank FOREVER and fighting escalating waves of cops until it's too late to get to the van.
link to original post

I disagree with the first premise. And if you think the best way to rob a bank is a quick hot and run, repeatedly, then go with that strategy. One day the police will be in there waiting for you. More often you go, more chance of it being that day.
So. Go to the casino. Log into your crypto trading account and get rich. I cannot conceive of what VP brings to the table..., Maybe a free buffet or coffee while you do your online stuff.
You brought some false premises and voodoo to this thread. I see the whole thread as -Ev. I will leave you to take your inspired wisdom to the casino . Good luck.
Psalm 25:16 Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted. Proverbs 18:2 A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
rektfast
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