My sports bet tracking
November 10th, 2019 at 7:11:22 AM
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Quote: unJonHe’s not trying to AP the website for $1. He’s trying to test some sports betting system.
he doesnt need to bet .37 to test a system. He should bet aggressively to win some money and keep track of whatever his method is to see if he is betting well.
Expect the worst and you will never be disappointed.
I AM NOT PART OF GWAE RADIO SHOW
November 10th, 2019 at 7:21:31 AM
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Quote: michael99000Is there a per game max bet? Could you risk the entire $37 on one game now if you wanted to ?
There are some limits but I am not clear what they are and they differ whether it is real money or play money. What limits there are appear to be related to how much you can win, not how much you can wager. I haven’t paid attention to them because they appear to be related to winning on highly positive situations like +250 moneyline or multiple team parleys where a person can win a lot for a small wager. Since all my bets are on heavy favorites I have never run into a limit.
November 10th, 2019 at 11:22:02 AM
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He doesn't need to bet anything to test this system, that's assuming he's not using some kind of gut feelings and handicapping because it wouldn't matter what the results are. As soon as someone starts putting any meaningful amounts of money on games they start second-guessing themselves and making completely different decisions than they normally would.Quote: GWAEhe doesnt need to bet .37 to test a system. He should bet aggressively to win some money and keep track of whatever his method is to see if he is betting well.
If he needs a site to keep himself honest, that's a big red flag.
He's willing to spend his time screwing around with little bets obviously, he should be trying to maximize his value on that site and test the system some other way and use the profits from that site to ramp up betting his other system if it works.
But whatever works for him and whatever he's happy doing.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
November 10th, 2019 at 2:09:54 PM
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Quote: AxelWolfIf he needs a site to keep himself honest, that's a big red flag.
He's willing to spend his time screwing around with little bets obviously, he should be trying to maximize his value on that site and test the system some other way and use the profits from that site to ramp up betting his other system if it works.
But whatever works for him and whatever he's happy doing.
I have no need for a site to keep me honest, I do have a need to keep my results “clean.” Because of promotional bets they offer and bets I place on other events there is a difference between my strategy betting and my balance at the site which about $1.00 higher.
The bets I am making are my real world test of my strategy but I fail to see how I could do better. I am betting the maximum sustainable amount for growth, more would increase my risk of ruin. My method calls for me to do exactly what I am doing.
November 10th, 2019 at 2:24:23 PM
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I'm not into sports betting, but I do find this thread interesting. What I don't understand is why the OP doesn't run a scaled up version in parallel. Nothing life changing, but maybe start a parallel 'portfolio' with a bankroll of say $100 or some higher amount that he can afford to lose.Quote: es330tdThe bets I am making are my real world test of my strategy but I fail to see how I could do better. I am betting the maximum sustainable amount for growth, more would increase my risk of ruin. My method calls for me to do exactly what I am doing.
Same 'system', same picks, same growth or loss rate, same percentage of bankroll in each stake.
If nothing else, it would be amusing to relate how he turned 100 into 3000 just for amusement.
He SEEMS to be achieving a respectable growth rate. The strategy already has what looks like a decent track record.
It would seem a shame to watch a successful 'method' turn a dollar into a thousand dollars without at least investing decent seed bankroll.
Or is there a reason why it won't scale up?
Psalm 25:16
Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted.
Proverbs 18:2
A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
November 10th, 2019 at 2:31:32 PM
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Quote: OnceDearI'm not into sports betting, but I do find this thread interesting. What I don't understand is why the OP doesn't run a scaled up version in parallel. Nothing life changing, but maybe start a parallel 'portfolio' with a bankroll of say $100 or some higher amount that he can afford to lose.
Same 'system', same picks, same growth or loss rate, same percentage of bankroll in each stake.
If nothing else, it would be amusing to relate how he turned 100 into 3000 just for amusement.
He SEEMS to be achieving a respectable growth rate. The strategy already has what looks like a decent track record.
It would seem a shame to watch a successful 'method' turn a dollar into a thousand dollars without at least investing decent seed bankroll.
Or is there a reason why it won't scale up?
It definitely does not have a decent enough track record to be considered successful or even close. With his strategy, he's 2 losses away from being negative. He's doing ok right now, but it most likely won't continue this way.
ZCore13
I am an employee of a Casino. Former Table Games Director,, current Pit Supervisor. All the personal opinions I post are my own and do not represent the opinions of the Casino or Tribe that I work for.
November 10th, 2019 at 3:32:28 PM
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Quote: Zcore13It definitely does not have a decent enough track record to be considered successful or even close. With his strategy, he's 2 losses away from being negative. He's doing ok right now, but it most likely won't continue this way.
ZCore13
Agree. Unless he has found a way to identify lines that allow for a +EV bet, his system will eventually fail. The OP is on a free roll. He has said a few times that he does not know if his system will work. What better way to test a likely to fail system than on a free roll?
November 10th, 2019 at 4:59:50 PM
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Quote: SOOPOOAgree. Unless he has found a way to identify lines that allow for a +EV bet, his system will eventually fail. The OP is on a free roll. He has said a few times that he does not know if his system will work. What better way to test a likely to fail system than on a free roll?
I Would say a better way is to just record results without actual wagers and use the site to try to free roll real money.
Expect the worst and you will never be disappointed.
I AM NOT PART OF GWAE RADIO SHOW
November 10th, 2019 at 5:14:21 PM
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EV of that free $1 is huge! ;-)Quote: GWAEI Would say a better way is to just record results without actual wagers and use the site to try to free roll real money.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
November 10th, 2019 at 5:33:38 PM
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Quote: OnceDearOr is there a reason why it won't scale up?
It won’t scale up because I can’t add funds. Back before they made internet gambling impossible I had an account at Sportsinteraction where you could make bets of $1.00. If I lived where sports betting was legal I could at least be doing this with whole dollars but as a Texas resident this seems to be my only “live” avenue for making sports wagers that are not me just making stuff up in an Excel spreadsheet. I could be claiming to make bets 100 times what I am but I wanted to post what I’m actually doing. If anybody questioned me I could provide screenshots of my app showing the actual wagers I’ve made.
There is no brick & mortar casino out there that wouldn’t accept my action for 100 or even 1000 times what I am wagering.
November 10th, 2019 at 5:53:12 PM
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Quote: Zcore13It definitely does not have a decent enough track record to be considered successful or even close. With his strategy, he's 2 losses away from being negative. He's doing ok right now, but it most likely won't continue this way.
ZCore13
This is why I am doing this publicly. It took me 500 wagers to grow from $1.00 to $35.00. If it worked once it will either work again or fail. I am here, plodding along, until one or the other happens.
November 10th, 2019 at 6:03:12 PM
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Quote: GWAEI Would say a better way is to just record results without actual wagers and use the site to try to free roll real money.
Sports betting is fun. I can’t get money out until my real money balance exceeds $200. If the options are “track in an Excel spreadsheet where I have to do calculations” or “make actual bets, even if for pennies” wouldn’t you rather place actual bets? At least this way I have a goal; there is a $200 reward at the end of this if I am right.
November 10th, 2019 at 6:08:30 PM
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I like the way that the OP is doing it. It is legit but won't scale. It sounds like the free promo money he is getting may offset the -EV. I don't understand why he is being criticized, He is not claiming it is a get rich scheme, only that he may make a few dollars if he continues. Probably the most legit poster for sports that we have seen on this forum. Why do we care if he only wins $10?
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
November 10th, 2019 at 6:34:56 PM
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Correct! For all practical purposes, this is a scale invariant endeavor, and if some folks are annoyed that it involves a beginning balance of $33.92, and wagers of $1.00 or so, then they should just use their imagination and add a few zeros before the decimals when thinking about it.Quote: es330tdThere is no brick & mortar casino out there that wouldn’t accept my action for 100 or even 1000 times what I am wagering.
As for those who question your betting theory, I would ask them now, at this early stage of the test, to state their objective criteria for evaluating the success or failure of your theory based on the outcomes of the wagers. Without that, any comments on the validity of your theory will ring hollow.
Last edited by: UP84 on Nov 10, 2019
November 10th, 2019 at 6:41:54 PM
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Quote: DRichI like the way that the OP is doing it. It is legit but won't scale. It sounds like the free promo money he is getting may offset the -EV. I don't understand why he is being criticized, He is not claiming it is a get rich scheme, only that he may make a few dollars if he continues. Probably the most legit poster for sports that we have seen on this forum. Why do we care if he only wins $10?
I use the promo money to place bets on other stuff, not this strategy. 100% of the wagers I am placing for this test are in the real money account only. I was doing that before but am no longer doing so to keep the strategy legit. This is what I meant about keeping the process “honest.”
November 10th, 2019 at 7:04:32 PM
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Also, I don't think the OP has expressly stated what HIS criteria for success is, nor do I think it's necessary, unless he starts to claim success.
November 10th, 2019 at 7:18:38 PM
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Quote: UP84Also, I don't think the OP has expressly stated what HIS criteria for success is, nor do I think it's necessary, unless he starts to claim success.
My initial criteria for success is doubling my balance two times. It will probably take me a year or more and a few hundred more wagers.
November 11th, 2019 at 5:46:33 AM
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Quote: UP84As for those who question your betting theory, I would ask them now, at this early stage of the test, to state their objective criteria for evaluating the success or failure of your theory based on the outcomes of the wagers. Without that, any comments on the validity of your theory will ring hollow.
This does not matter to me. If it works, their goalposts will be passed wherever they are moved.
November 11th, 2019 at 6:56:32 AM
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Last Result: +0.36
Running Balance: $3.80
Balance: $37.72
Sport: NFL
Game: Seattle @ SF 11/11/19
Pick: 49’ers-259
Wager: $0.94
Running Balance: $3.80
Balance: $37.72
Sport: NFL
Game: Seattle @ SF 11/11/19
Pick: 49’ers-259
Wager: $0.94
November 11th, 2019 at 11:59:45 AM
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Quote: OnceDearI'm not into sports betting, but I do find this thread interesting.
Thank you, though my last several picks have all been right. Picking correctly every time is great but not a reasonable long term strategy one can rely on. I think it gets interesting when I lose a game and have to make it back. SportsPlays says I’m 212-82-3 over the last year so I do lose about 25% of the time.
November 12th, 2019 at 1:57:18 AM
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Last Result: (.94)
Running Balance: 2.86
Balance: 36.78
Sport: NBA
Game: Brooklyn @ Utah 11/12/19
Pick: Jazz-266
Wager: 2.32
Running Balance: 2.86
Balance: 36.78
Sport: NBA
Game: Brooklyn @ Utah 11/12/19
Pick: Jazz-266
Wager: 2.32
November 13th, 2019 at 9:14:25 PM
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Last Result: .87
Running Balance: 3.73
Balance: $37.65
Sport: NBA
Game: Atlanta@Phoenix 11/14/19
Pick: Suns-281
Wager: 1.22
Running Balance: 3.73
Balance: $37.65
Sport: NBA
Game: Atlanta@Phoenix 11/14/19
Pick: Suns-281
Wager: 1.22
November 14th, 2019 at 8:48:20 PM
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Last Result: +.43
Running Balance: 4.16
Balance: 38.08
Sport: NBA
Game: Washington @ Minnesota 11/15/19
Pick: Timberwolves-271
Wager: 1.03
Running Balance: 4.16
Balance: 38.08
Sport: NBA
Game: Washington @ Minnesota 11/15/19
Pick: Timberwolves-271
Wager: 1.03
November 17th, 2019 at 5:05:49 AM
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Last Result -1.03
Running Balance: 3.13
Balance: $37.05
Sport: NBA
Game: Washington @ Orlando 11/17/19
Pick: Orlando-263
Wager: $2.50
Running Balance: 3.13
Balance: $37.05
Sport: NBA
Game: Washington @ Orlando 11/17/19
Pick: Orlando-263
Wager: $2.50
November 17th, 2019 at 8:39:18 AM
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Quote: es330tdLast Result -1.03
Running Balance: 3.13
Balance: $37.05
Sport: NBA
Game: Washington @ Orlando 11/17/19
Pick: Orlando-263
Wager: $2.50
OMG. Orlando is a heavy favorite in ANY game? Wizards' entire starting 5 must be benched. Lol...
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
November 17th, 2019 at 9:57:32 AM
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Quote: beachbumbabsOMG. Orlando is a heavy favorite in ANY game? Wizards' entire starting 5 must be benched. Lol...
I was shocked as well but this is the game my methodology said to pick. I expect to be wrong 25% of the time so the Wizards could still win this.
November 17th, 2019 at 5:22:39 PM
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Orlando wins!Quote: beachbumbabsOMG. Orlando is a heavy favorite in ANY game? Wizards' entire starting 5 must be benched. Lol...
When a rock is thrown into a pack of dogs, the one that yells the loudest is the one who got hit.
November 17th, 2019 at 5:33:48 PM
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Last Result: +.95
Running Balance: 4.08
Balance: 38.00
Sport: NBA
Game: Portland @ Houston 11/18/19
Pick: Rockets -261
Wager: 1.21
Running Balance: 4.08
Balance: 38.00
Sport: NBA
Game: Portland @ Houston 11/18/19
Pick: Rockets -261
Wager: 1.21
November 18th, 2019 at 7:41:55 PM
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Last Result: +.46
Running Balance: 4.54
Balance: $38.46
Sport: NBA
Game: Golden State @ Memphis 11/19/19
Pick: Grizzlies-261
Wager: 1.00
Running Balance: 4.54
Balance: $38.46
Sport: NBA
Game: Golden State @ Memphis 11/19/19
Pick: Grizzlies-261
Wager: 1.00
November 19th, 2019 at 7:55:23 AM
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early stage of the testQuote: UP84As for those who question your betting theory, I would ask them now, at this early stage of the test, to state their objective criteria...
OP already stated this early on (he has tested this to his satisfaction and says "so what' to the sports experts that have used super computers to find winnings in data - data mining)
"I am not going to reveal this system to anybody but Mike Shackleford
and even then only if he asks me directly what I am doing.
I actually tested this in python using one million trials and will give him my source code."
"I tested it using one million trials and I have followed it for 500 actual picks to get me here. In all that time I have never considered anyone else’s opinion or pick. I am going to keep to my method until I get to where I want or I am bankrupt. I will declare success or failure at that point."
"What I am relying on for my criteria should not ever change so I am not worried about missing out; in fact, I used twenty years of back data to choose my selection criteria."
later on stated the data he used was NOT his and was not verified (yrp, made up stuff)
"Where did you find a place that gave you 20 years worth of money line betting lines?"
"It was anecdotal. I relied on summaries from other sources. I didn’t look it up myself but found analyses from others telling me what I needed to know. I wasn’t looking for fine grained info."
anecdotal: not necessarily true or reliable, because based on personal accounts rather than facts or research.
remember the LAST chase system? It had NOT lost in last 9 years (of back-testing) and CRASHED big time in less than 4 months...
NBA has lots of +ev bets during the season due to the heavy schedule of those back-to-back road games (no matter what the NBA says)
update:
| date | type | game | team 2 win | bet # | wager | total wagered | odds | result | net | total | day start bank | bet of bank | end bank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9/6/2019 | MLB | SF @ LAD | Dodgers-260 | 1 | $0.84 | $0.84 | -260 | Loss | ($0.84) | ($0.84) | $33.92 | 2.476% | $33.08 |
| 9/7/2019 | MLB | Detroit @ Oakland | Oakland-282 | 2 | $2.82 | $3.66 | -282 | Win | $1.00 | $0.16 | $33.08 | 8.525% | $34.08 |
| 9/8/2019 | MLB | Detroit @ Oakland | Oakland-286 | 3 | $0.46 | $4.12 | -286 | Win | $0.16 | $0.32 | $34.08 | 1.350% | $34.24 |
| 9/9/2019 | NFL | Houston @ New Orleans | NO-289 | 4 | $0.96 | $5.08 | -289 | Win | $0.34 | $0.66 | $34.24 | 2.804% | $34.58 |
| 9/12/2019 | MLB | Oakland @ Houston | Houston - 259 | 5 | $0.89 | $5.97 | -259 | Loss | ($0.89) | ($0.23) | $34.58 | 2.574% | $33.69 |
| 9/15/2019 | MLB | Pirates @ Cubs | Cubs-254 | 6 | $2.09 | $8.06 | -254 | Win | $0.82 | $0.59 | $33.69 | 6.204% | $34.51 |
| 9/16/2019 | MLB | KC @ Oakland | A’s - 277 | 7 | $0.67 | $8.73 | -277 | Loss | ($0.67) | ($0.08) | $34.51 | 1.941% | $33.84 |
| 9/17/2019 | MLB | Texas @ Houston | Astros-297 | 8 | $1.61 | $10.34 | -297 | Win | $0.54 | $0.46 | $33.84 | 4.758% | $34.38 |
| 9/18/2019 | MLB | LA@New York Yankees | Yankees -305 | 9 | $1.10 | $11.44 | -305 | Loss | ($1.10) | ($0.64) | $34.38 | 3.200% | $33.28 |
| 9/19/2019 | MLB | KC @ Minn | Twins-255 | 10 | $2.10 | $13.54 | -255 | Win | $0.82 | $0.18 | $33.28 | 6.310% | $34.10 |
| 9/22/2019 | NFL | Pittsburgh @ SF | SF-295 | 11 | $1.63 | $15.17 | -295 | Win | $0.55 | $0.73 | $34.10 | 4.780% | $34.65 |
| 9/22/2019 | NFL | Oak @ Indy | Colts-271 | 12 | $0.74 | $15.91 | -271 | Loss | ($0.74) | ($0.01) | $34.65 | 2.136% | $33.91 |
| 10/5/2019 | MLB | TB @ Houston | Astros -310 | 13 | $1.59 | $17.50 | -310 | Win | $0.51 | $0.50 | $33.91 | 4.689% | $34.42 |
| 10/10/2019 | MLB | TB @ Houston | Astros -280 | 14 | $0.93 | $18.43 | -280 | Win | $0.33 | $0.83 | $34.42 | 2.702% | $34.75 |
| 10/27/2019 | NBA | Miami@Minnesota | Timberwolves-256 | 15 | $0.44 | $18.87 | -256 | Win | $0.17 | $1.00 | $34.75 | 1.266% | $34.92 |
| 10/30/2019 | NBA | Minnesota @ Philadelphia | 76ers-270 | 16 | $0.92 | $19.79 | -270 | Win | $0.34 | $1.34 | $34.92 | 2.635% | $35.26 |
| 11/1/2019 | NBA | Cleveland @ Indiana | Indiana -311 | 17 | $1.04 | $20.83 | -311 | Win | $0.34 | $1.68 | $35.26 | 2.950% | $35.60 |
| 11/4/2019 | NBA | Houston @ Memphis | Hou -267 | 18 | $0.91 | $21.74 | -267 | Win | $0.34 | $2.02 | $35.60 | 2.556% | $35.94 |
| 11/5/2019 | NBA | LA@Chicago | LA-300 | 19 | $1.02 | $22.76 | -300 | Win | $0.34 | $2.36 | $35.94 | 2.838% | $36.28 |
| 11/6/2019 | NBA | Orlando @ Dallas | Mavericks-298 | 20 | $1.08 | $23.84 | -298 | Win | $0.36 | $2.72 | $36.28 | 2.977% | $36.64 |
| 11/8/2019 | NBA | Memphis@Orlando | Magic-265 | 21 | $0.96 | $24.80 | -265 | Win | $0.36 | $3.08 | $36.64 | 2.620% | $37.00 |
| 11/9/2019 | NBA | Houston @ Chicago | Houston -281 | 22 | $1.02 | $25.82 | -281 | Win | $0.36 | $3.44 | $37.00 | 2.757% | $37.36 |
| 11/10/2019 | NBA | Milwaukee @ Oklahoma City | Bucks-293 | 23 | $1.06 | $26.88 | -293 | Win | $0.36 | $3.80 | $37.36 | 2.837% | $37.72 |
| 11/11/2019 | NFL | Seattle @ SF | 49’ers-259 | 24 | $0.94 | $27.82 | -293 | Loss | ($0.94) | $2.86 | $37.72 | 2.492% | $36.78 |
| 11/12/2019 | NBA | Brooklyn @ Utah 11/12/19 | Jazz-266 | 25 | $2.32 | $30.14 | -266 | Win | $0.87 | $3.73 | $36.78 | 6.308% | $37.65 |
| 11/14/2019 | NBA | Atlanta@Phoenix | Suns-281 | 26 | $1.22 | $31.36 | -281 | Win | $0.43 | $4.16 | $37.65 | 3.240% | $38.08 |
| 11/15/2019 | NBA | Washington @ Minnesota | Timberwolves-271 | 27 | $1.03 | $32.39 | -271 | Loss | ($1.03) | $3.13 | $38.08 | 2.705% | $37.05 |
| 11/17/2019 | NBA | Washington @ Orlando | Orlando-263 | 28 | $2.50 | $34.89 | -263 | Win | $0.95 | $4.08 | $37.05 | 6.748% | $38.00 |
| 11/18/2019 | NBA | Portland @ Houston 11/18/19 | Rockets -261 | 29 | $1.21 | $36.10 | -261 | Win | $0.46 | $4.54 | $38.00 | 3.184% | $38.46 |
winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)
November 19th, 2019 at 9:15:18 AM
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Quote: 7crapsremember the LAST chase system? It had NOT lost in last 9 years (of back-testing) and CRASHED big time in less than 4 months...
This is the reason I am live testing. Any system can be tweaked to fit back data. Only by testing my system on action as it happens can I get actual results. If I had somehow rigged my methodology it will be revealed by actual outcomes.
Since you seem to be obsessing about how I looked at data to determine how I make picks I will share with everyone what I did.
I wanted to find an outcome that occurred at a particular frequency. By lurking on a number of sites (but never posting) and doing a lot of searches I was able to collect back sports line data. I even found a site where you can get entire seasons of games with the moneyline odds at game time. I imported the data into a database and ran queries against the data. (I’m a certified database professional. Queries are what I do.) I didn’t go back and test against every game. Once I knew the frequency of an event occurring I can use that as a proxy for actual data. Running that proxy in one million trials in python gave me a Monte Carlo results set of outcomes.
Let’s say that my hypothesis is that home teams on Wednesdays that are on an odd number day of the month win at a disproportionate rate. I don’t need to look at every game in history to run an aggregate query against the data.
Once I had a simulation that worked I knew my methodology was sound. Next step was real world testing. That is what I did before I started this thread. Once I had some success (and the system worked through multiple multiple consecutive loss sequences) I decided the next step was to test with others watching to ensure it was clean.
That is where we are today.
Last edited by: es330td on Nov 19, 2019
November 19th, 2019 at 10:15:33 AM
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Quote: es330td
Let’s say that my hypothesis is that home teams on Wednesdays that are on an odd number day of the month win at a disproportionate rate. I don’t need to look at every game in history to run an aggregate query against the data.
Sounds fool proof long term. An absolute game changer.
November 19th, 2019 at 7:58:05 PM
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Quote: SM777Sounds fool proof long term. An absolute game changer.
It only works if the visiting pitcher has an “O” in his last name so it is of limited utility. ;-)
November 19th, 2019 at 9:45:03 PM
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Save all that time and just bet the biggest fav each bet......wait...that’s what you do. It works most of the time. Maybe it will run good for years
50-50-90 Rule: Anytime you have a 50-50 chance of getting something right, there is a 90% probability you'll get it wrong
November 19th, 2019 at 10:16:18 PM
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Quote: SM777Sounds fool proof long term. An absolute game changer.
Obviously, he is using a silly example for fun. At least I thought it was obvious.
November 19th, 2019 at 10:37:59 PM
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Quote: es330tdIt only works if the visiting pitcher has an “O” in his last name so it is of limited utility. ;-)
Now I get why you took Gerrit cOle a few times.
But Houston is a much better bet at home, where they can get those cameras correctly positioned for sign stealing
November 20th, 2019 at 4:42:22 AM
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Quote: vegasSave all that time and just bet the biggest fav each bet......wait...that’s what you do. It works most of the time. Maybe it will run good for years
It does not appear that he takes the biggest favorite. It seems like he takes favorites that he hast to lay between 2 1/2 and 4 to 1. I don't recall him taking a bridge jumper type favorite where are you have to lay eight or nine or 10 to 1.
November 20th, 2019 at 5:47:14 AM
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Quote: SOOPOOIt does not appear that he takes the biggest favorite. It seems like he takes favorites that he hast to lay between 2 1/2 and 4 to 1. I don't recall him taking a bridge jumper type favorite where are you have to lay eight or nine or 10 to 1.
I never go over -300. Losing a -500 takes too long to win back. Worse, as there is clearly a chase element to the methodology consecutive losses would put me in a huge hole.
November 20th, 2019 at 7:45:01 AM
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that statement is totally IDIOTIC (showing complete lack of thought or common sense) and 100% FALSE.Quote: es330tdI never go over -300. Losing a -500 takes too long to win back.
It only takes one win (IF BET CORRECTLY - proper amount wagered) to gain a net win
-300
bet $3 trying to win $1... Bet lost
now down $3. need to win $4 on next wager
another -300 requires $12 wagered to win $4 and show a $1 profit
Bet WINS and $1 profit is achieved - ONLY 1 bet required.
-500
bet $5 trying to win $1... Bet lost
now down 5. need to win $6 on next wager
another -500 requires $30 wagered to win $6 and show a $1 profit
Bet WINS and $1 profit is achieved - ONLY 1 bet required.
the above example did NOT take too long to win back the 1st lost bet - it REQUIRED MORE to be wagered.
"Losing a -500 takes too long to win back."
nice try
I gather this was not what you wanted to get across
define HUGE andQuote: es330tdWorse, as there is clearly a chase element to the methodology consecutive losses would put me in a huge hole.
when 'something' that is NOT HUGH becomes HUGE.
added: to the casual reader one would think risking $15 to win $1 is WAY better than risking $35 to win $1
they may not know a -500 wager should have a HIGHER probability of winning than a -300 wager.
better and HIGHER here are NOT defined.
winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)
November 20th, 2019 at 9:16:13 AM
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I don’t try to win back the entire amount of a loss on the next wager. Since I’m not willing to bet more I have to bet more times. Even if a subsequent wager was a sure thing for a fractional gain, if it takes too many wagers to get back to even then it isn’t worth the time.
A bet becomes “huge“ instead of “not huge“ if losing the wager would require an unsustainably large follow up bet.
A bet becomes “huge“ instead of “not huge“ if losing the wager would require an unsustainably large follow up bet.
November 20th, 2019 at 10:27:58 AM
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| date | type | game | team 2 win | bet # | wager | total wagered | odds | result | net | total | day start bank | bet of bank | end bank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9/6/2019 | MLB | SF @ LAD | Dodgers-260 | 1 | $0.84 | $0.84 | -260 | Loss | ($0.84) | ($0.84) | $33.92 | 2.476% | $33.08 |
| 9/7/2019 | MLB | Detroit @ Oakland | Oakland-282 | 2 | $2.82 | $3.66 | -282 | Win | $1.00 | $0.16 | $33.08 | 8.525% | $34.08 |
| 9/8/2019 | MLB | Detroit @ Oakland | Oakland-286 | 3 | $0.46 | $4.12 | -286 | Win | $0.16 | $0.32 | $34.08 | 1.350% | $34.24 |
| 9/9/2019 | NFL | Houston @ New Orleans | NO-289 | 4 | $0.96 | $5.08 | -289 | Win | $0.34 | $0.66 | $34.24 | 2.804% | $34.58 |
| 9/12/2019 | MLB | Oakland @ Houston | Houston - 259 | 5 | $0.89 | $5.97 | -259 | Loss | ($0.89) | ($0.23) | $34.58 | 2.574% | $33.69 |
| 9/15/2019 | MLB | Pirates @ Cubs | Cubs-254 | 6 | $2.09 | $8.06 | -254 | Win | $0.82 | $0.59 | $33.69 | 6.204% | $34.51 |
| 9/16/2019 | MLB | KC @ Oakland | A’s - 277 | 7 | $0.67 | $8.73 | -277 | Loss | ($0.67) | ($0.08) | $34.51 | 1.941% | $33.84 |
| 9/17/2019 | MLB | Texas @ Houston | Astros-297 | 8 | $1.61 | $10.34 | -297 | Win | $0.54 | $0.46 | $33.84 | 4.758% | $34.38 |
| 9/18/2019 | MLB | LA@New York Yankees | Yankees -305 | 9 | $1.10 | $11.44 | -305 | Loss | ($1.10) | ($0.64) | $34.38 | 3.200% | $33.28 |
| 9/19/2019 | MLB | KC @ Minn | Twins-255 | 10 | $2.10 | $13.54 | -255 | Win | $0.82 | $0.18 | $33.28 | 6.310% | $34.10 |
| 9/22/2019 | NFL | Pittsburgh @ SF | SF-295 | 11 | $1.63 | $15.17 | -295 | Win | $0.55 | $0.73 | $34.10 | 4.780% | $34.65 |
| 9/22/2019 | NFL | Oak @ Indy | Colts-271 | 12 | $0.74 | $15.91 | -271 | Loss | ($0.74) | ($0.01) | $34.65 | 2.136% | $33.91 |
| 10/5/2019 | MLB | TB @ Houston | Astros -310 | 13 | $1.59 | $17.50 | -310 | Win | $0.51 | $0.50 | $33.91 | 4.689% | $34.42 |
| 10/10/2019 | MLB | TB @ Houston | Astros -280 | 14 | $0.93 | $18.43 | -280 | Win | $0.33 | $0.83 | $34.42 | 2.702% | $34.75 |
| 10/27/2019 | NBA | Miami@Minnesota | Timberwolves-256 | 15 | $0.44 | $18.87 | -256 | Win | $0.17 | $1.00 | $34.75 | 1.266% | $34.92 |
| 10/30/2019 | NBA | Minnesota @ Philadelphia | 76ers-270 | 16 | $0.92 | $19.79 | -270 | Win | $0.34 | $1.34 | $34.92 | 2.635% | $35.26 |
| 11/1/2019 | NBA | Cleveland @ Indiana | Indiana -311 | 17 | $1.04 | $20.83 | -311 | Win | $0.34 | $1.68 | $35.26 | 2.950% | $35.60 |
| 11/4/2019 | NBA | Houston @ Memphis | Hou -267 | 18 | $0.91 | $21.74 | -267 | Win | $0.34 | $2.02 | $35.60 | 2.556% | $35.94 |
| 11/5/2019 | NBA | LA@Chicago | LA-300 | 19 | $1.02 | $22.76 | -300 | Win | $0.34 | $2.36 | $35.94 | 2.838% | $36.28 |
| 11/6/2019 | NBA | Orlando @ Dallas | Mavericks-298 | 20 | $1.08 | $23.84 | -298 | Win | $0.36 | $2.72 | $36.28 | 2.977% | $36.64 |
| 11/8/2019 | NBA | Memphis@Orlando | Magic-265 | 21 | $0.96 | $24.80 | -265 | Win | $0.36 | $3.08 | $36.64 | 2.620% | $37.00 |
| 11/9/2019 | NBA | Houston @ Chicago | Houston -281 | 22 | $1.02 | $25.82 | -281 | Win | $0.36 | $3.44 | $37.00 | 2.757% | $37.36 |
| 11/10/2019 | NBA | Milwaukee @ Oklahoma City | Bucks-293 | 23 | $1.06 | $26.88 | -293 | Win | $0.36 | $3.80 | $37.36 | 2.837% | $37.72 |
| 11/11/2019 | NFL | Seattle @ SF | 49’ers-259 | 24 | $0.94 | $27.82 | -293 | Loss | ($0.94) | $2.86 | $37.72 | 2.492% | $36.78 |
| 11/12/2019 | NBA | Brooklyn @ Utah 11/12/19 | Jazz-266 | 25 | $2.32 | $30.14 | -266 | Win | $0.87 | $3.73 | $36.78 | 6.308% | $37.65 |
| 11/14/2019 | NBA | Atlanta@Phoenix | Suns-281 | 26 | $1.22 | $31.36 | -281 | Win | $0.43 | $4.16 | $37.65 | 3.240% | $38.08 |
| 11/15/2019 | NBA | Washington @ Minnesota | Timberwolves-271 | 27 | $1.03 | $32.39 | -271 | Loss | ($1.03) | $3.13 | $38.08 | 2.705% | $37.05 |
| 11/17/2019 | NBA | Washington @ Orlando | Orlando-263 | 28 | $2.50 | $34.89 | -263 | Win | $0.95 | $4.08 | $37.05 | 6.748% | $38.00 |
| 11/18/2019 | NBA | Portland @ Houston 11/18/19 | Rockets -261 | 29 | $1.21 | $36.10 | -261 | Win | $0.46 | $4.54 | $38.00 | 3.184% | $38.46 |
| 11/19/2019 | NBA | Golden State @ Memphis | Grizzlies-261 | 30 | $1.00 | $37.10 | -261 | Loss | ($1.00) | $3.54 | $38.46 | 2.600% | $37.46 |
winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)
November 20th, 2019 at 3:06:17 PM
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Last Result: -1.00
Running Balance: $3.54
Balance: $37.46
Sport: NBA
Game: Boston @ LA Clippers 11/20/19
Pick: Clippers-298
Wager: 2.75
Running Balance: $3.54
Balance: $37.46
Sport: NBA
Game: Boston @ LA Clippers 11/20/19
Pick: Clippers-298
Wager: 2.75
November 21st, 2019 at 9:52:50 AM
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Quote: es330tdLast Result: -1.00
Running Balance: $3.54
Balance: $37.46
Sport: NBA
Game: Boston @ LA Clippers 11/20/19
Pick: Clippers-298
Wager: 2.75
I did not like making this wager. I said I would follow my process and did but I fully expected to lose last night.
November 21st, 2019 at 9:54:17 AM
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Nail biter but a winner.Quote: es330tdI did not like making this wager. I said I would follow my process and did but I fully expected to lose last night.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
November 22nd, 2019 at 2:50:03 AM
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Last Result: +.92
Running Balance: 4.46
Bankroll: 38.38
Sport: NBA
Game: Atlanta @ Detroit 11/22/19
Pick: Detroit-255
Wager: 0.69
Running Balance: 4.46
Bankroll: 38.38
Sport: NBA
Game: Atlanta @ Detroit 11/22/19
Pick: Detroit-255
Wager: 0.69
November 22nd, 2019 at 8:43:24 PM
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| date | type | game | team 2 win | bet # | wager | total wagered | odds | result | net | total | day start bank | bet of bank | end bank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9/6/2019 | MLB | SF @ LAD | Dodgers-260 | 1 | $0.84 | $0.84 | -260 | Loss | ($0.84) | ($0.84) | $33.92 | 2.476% | $33.08 |
| 9/7/2019 | MLB | Detroit @ Oakland | Oakland-282 | 2 | $2.82 | $3.66 | -282 | Win | $1.00 | $0.16 | $33.08 | 8.525% | $34.08 |
| 9/8/2019 | MLB | Detroit @ Oakland | Oakland-286 | 3 | $0.46 | $4.12 | -286 | Win | $0.16 | $0.32 | $34.08 | 1.350% | $34.24 |
| 9/9/2019 | NFL | Houston @ New Orleans | NO-289 | 4 | $0.96 | $5.08 | -289 | Win | $0.34 | $0.66 | $34.24 | 2.804% | $34.58 |
| 9/12/2019 | MLB | Oakland @ Houston | Houston - 259 | 5 | $0.89 | $5.97 | -259 | Loss | ($0.89) | ($0.23) | $34.58 | 2.574% | $33.69 |
| 9/15/2019 | MLB | Pirates @ Cubs | Cubs-254 | 6 | $2.09 | $8.06 | -254 | Win | $0.82 | $0.59 | $33.69 | 6.204% | $34.51 |
| 9/16/2019 | MLB | KC @ Oakland | A’s - 277 | 7 | $0.67 | $8.73 | -277 | Loss | ($0.67) | ($0.08) | $34.51 | 1.941% | $33.84 |
| 9/17/2019 | MLB | Texas @ Houston | Astros-297 | 8 | $1.61 | $10.34 | -297 | Win | $0.54 | $0.46 | $33.84 | 4.758% | $34.38 |
| 9/18/2019 | MLB | LA@New York Yankees | Yankees -305 | 9 | $1.10 | $11.44 | -305 | Loss | ($1.10) | ($0.64) | $34.38 | 3.200% | $33.28 |
| 9/19/2019 | MLB | KC @ Minn | Twins-255 | 10 | $2.10 | $13.54 | -255 | Win | $0.82 | $0.18 | $33.28 | 6.310% | $34.10 |
| 9/22/2019 | NFL | Pittsburgh @ SF | SF-295 | 11 | $1.63 | $15.17 | -295 | Win | $0.55 | $0.73 | $34.10 | 4.780% | $34.65 |
| 9/22/2019 | NFL | Oak @ Indy | Colts-271 | 12 | $0.74 | $15.91 | -271 | Loss | ($0.74) | ($0.01) | $34.65 | 2.136% | $33.91 |
| 10/5/2019 | MLB | TB @ Houston | Astros -310 | 13 | $1.59 | $17.50 | -310 | Win | $0.51 | $0.50 | $33.91 | 4.689% | $34.42 |
| 10/10/2019 | MLB | TB @ Houston | Astros -280 | 14 | $0.93 | $18.43 | -280 | Win | $0.33 | $0.83 | $34.42 | 2.702% | $34.75 |
| 10/27/2019 | NBA | Miami@Minnesota | Timberwolves-256 | 15 | $0.44 | $18.87 | -256 | Win | $0.17 | $1.00 | $34.75 | 1.266% | $34.92 |
| 10/30/2019 | NBA | Minnesota @ Philadelphia | 76ers-270 | 16 | $0.92 | $19.79 | -270 | Win | $0.34 | $1.34 | $34.92 | 2.635% | $35.26 |
| 11/1/2019 | NBA | Cleveland @ Indiana | Indiana -311 | 17 | $1.04 | $20.83 | -311 | Win | $0.34 | $1.68 | $35.26 | 2.950% | $35.60 |
| 11/4/2019 | NBA | Houston @ Memphis | Hou -267 | 18 | $0.91 | $21.74 | -267 | Win | $0.34 | $2.02 | $35.60 | 2.556% | $35.94 |
| 11/5/2019 | NBA | LA@Chicago | LA-300 | 19 | $1.02 | $22.76 | -300 | Win | $0.34 | $2.36 | $35.94 | 2.838% | $36.28 |
| 11/6/2019 | NBA | Orlando @ Dallas | Mavericks-298 | 20 | $1.08 | $23.84 | -298 | Win | $0.36 | $2.72 | $36.28 | 2.977% | $36.64 |
| 11/8/2019 | NBA | Memphis@Orlando | Magic-265 | 21 | $0.96 | $24.80 | -265 | Win | $0.36 | $3.08 | $36.64 | 2.620% | $37.00 |
| 11/9/2019 | NBA | Houston @ Chicago | Houston -281 | 22 | $1.02 | $25.82 | -281 | Win | $0.36 | $3.44 | $37.00 | 2.757% | $37.36 |
| 11/10/2019 | NBA | Milwaukee @ Oklahoma City | Bucks-293 | 23 | $1.06 | $26.88 | -293 | Win | $0.36 | $3.80 | $37.36 | 2.837% | $37.72 |
| 11/11/2019 | NFL | Seattle @ SF | 49’ers-259 | 24 | $0.94 | $27.82 | -293 | Loss | ($0.94) | $2.86 | $37.72 | 2.492% | $36.78 |
| 11/12/2019 | NBA | Brooklyn @ Utah 11/12/19 | Jazz-266 | 25 | $2.32 | $30.14 | -266 | Win | $0.87 | $3.73 | $36.78 | 6.308% | $37.65 |
| 11/14/2019 | NBA | Atlanta@Phoenix | Suns-281 | 26 | $1.22 | $31.36 | -281 | Win | $0.43 | $4.16 | $37.65 | 3.240% | $38.08 |
| 11/15/2019 | NBA | Washington @ Minnesota | Timberwolves-271 | 27 | $1.03 | $32.39 | -271 | Loss | ($1.03) | $3.13 | $38.08 | 2.705% | $37.05 |
| 11/17/2019 | NBA | Washington @ Orlando | Orlando-263 | 28 | $2.50 | $34.89 | -263 | Win | $0.95 | $4.08 | $37.05 | 6.748% | $38.00 |
| 11/18/2019 | NBA | Portland @ Houston 11/18/19 | Rockets -261 | 29 | $1.21 | $36.10 | -261 | Win | $0.46 | $4.54 | $38.00 | 3.184% | $38.46 |
| 11/19/2019 | NBA | Golden State @ Memphis | Grizzlies-261 | 30 | $1.00 | $37.10 | -261 | Loss | ($1.00) | $3.54 | $38.46 | 2.600% | $37.46 |
| 11/20/2019 | NBA | Boston @ LA Clippers | Clippers-298 | 31 | $2.75 | $39.85 | -298 | Win | $0.92 | $4.46 | $37.46 | 7.341% | $38.38 |
| 11/22/2019 | NBA | Atlanta @ Detroit | Detroit-255 | 32 | $0.69 | $40.54 | -255 | Win | $0.27 | $4.73 | $38.38 | 1.798% | $38.65 |
profit chart
winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)
November 23rd, 2019 at 12:31:17 AM
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I like the graph. That chart is going to get tedious when I have 100+ wagers of history.
Last edited by: es330td on Nov 23, 2019
November 23rd, 2019 at 5:25:56 AM
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Last Result: +.27
Running Balance: 4.73
Balance: 38.65
Sport: NBA
Game: Toronto @ Atlanta 11/23/19
Pick: Raptors-297
Wager: 1.14
Running Balance: 4.73
Balance: 38.65
Sport: NBA
Game: Toronto @ Atlanta 11/23/19
Pick: Raptors-297
Wager: 1.14
November 23rd, 2019 at 9:57:22 AM
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We are running an NFL picks contest on the crapsforum.com. 8 guys....1 guy is at -50% and the rest are lower. I believe you need to be about 53% (vig) to break even and a true handicapper who can make bank would probably be in the 57% to 60% range to make it worthwhile.
Those who can do it aren't advertising or selling they can, IMO.
If someone can pull off sports wagering as a consistent money maker...kudos. I only know of 2. Billy Walters and Lefty Rosenthal. Obviously there could be more....but if I pull up the sports betting web sites, seems there are 1,000's who can do it AND are willing to sell you those picks.
Cough, cough....BS.
Those who can do it aren't advertising or selling they can, IMO.
If someone can pull off sports wagering as a consistent money maker...kudos. I only know of 2. Billy Walters and Lefty Rosenthal. Obviously there could be more....but if I pull up the sports betting web sites, seems there are 1,000's who can do it AND are willing to sell you those picks.
Cough, cough....BS.
November 23rd, 2019 at 11:33:03 AM
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Quote: 7crapsthat statement is totally IDIOTIC (showing complete lack of thought or common sense) and 100% FALSE.Quote: es330tdI never go over -300. Losing a -500 takes too long to win back.
It only takes one win (IF BET CORRECTLY - proper amount wagered) to gain a net win
-300
bet $3 trying to win $1... Bet lost
now down $3. need to win $4 on next wager
another -300 requires $12 wagered to win $4 and show a $1 profit
Bet WINS and $1 profit is achieved - ONLY 1 bet required.
-500
bet $5 trying to win $1... Bet lost
now down 5. need to win $6 on next wager
another -500 requires $30 wagered to win $6 and show a $1 profit
Bet WINS and $1 profit is achieved - ONLY 1 bet required.
the above example did NOT take too long to win back the 1st lost bet - it REQUIRED MORE to be wagered.
"Losing a -500 takes too long to win back."
nice try
I gather this was not what you wanted to get across
define HUGE and
when 'something' that is NOT HUGH becomes HUGE.
added: to the casual reader one would think risking $15 to win $1 is WAY better than risking $35 to win $1
they may not know a -500 wager should have a HIGHER probability of winning than a -300 wager.
better and HIGHER here are NOT defined.
We get it -- you and sally love your martingale on huge favs.
