My sports bet tracking
Quote: GWAEThen there is no way for you to know your system is working.
My balance is increasing and the method is working as expected. That is a pretty good indicator.
Quote: kubikulannDo you use code for neutrality, or because eye and hand cannot produce the answer?
Also, your statement that bankroll plays a role seems contradictory with first mentioning 33.92$ as a starting BR then switching to zero.
The code was for neutrality. I also wanted to code it because I can run lots of trials quickly. I switched to zero base at another users suggestion to show my running total. My bankroll is a little more than $34.
Yes, I got that much. But are your choices dependent on it? On 34 or on the running total?Quote: es330tdy. I switched to zero base at another users suggestion to show my running total. My bankroll is a little more than $34.
Quote: es330tdMy balance is increasing and the method is working as expected. That is a pretty good indicator.
You said that you back tested it. It is not possible to back test something without having data. You are just making stuff up at this point. Good luck with your system but I am exiting this non sense.
Quote: kubikulannYes, I got that much. But are your choices dependent on it? On 34 or on the running total?
Got it. Yes. How much I bet is a function of my balance. I will include that info on future posts.
Quote: es330tdBecause I still don’t believe it myself. I had a thought occur to me when reading something Shackleford wrote. Curiosity made me throw together a quick test program and it didn’t blow up immediately like other systems. That then made me wonder if managing the bet sizes made a difference. After making this adjustment and running a couple thousand trial tests it only produced single digit failure rates. At that point I decided it had merit and decided to try it out on the site I had access to. I am still not certain I programmed my code right or that I am not somehow influencing the record. Next step is a public trial.
I think you are not understanding what a 'system' is when the Wiz says no betting system will work. If you have found some way to identify an advantage that is reproducible that the linemakers are not aware of, then you could make money in the long run. You have not shared with us how you select your picks.
As an example, (hypothetical, of course) it is possible that an average bet on UFC fighters from Brazil produce a net win when they fight in Brazil, but betting against them produces a net win when they fight in the USA, Making those bets now would not be considered a betting system.
In other words, if somehow(extremely doubtful) you have found a way to identify picks that are +EV, your 'system' will work. If your picks are -EV (likely), your system will fail.
Running Total: +0.36
Sport: MLB
Game: Oakland @ Houston 9/12/19
Pick: Houston - 259
Wager: $0.89
Quote: es330tdBalance: $34.24
Running Total: +0.36
Sport: MLB
Game: Oakland @ Houston 9/12/19
Pick: Houston - 259
Wager: $0.89
How frequently will your system pick an underdog to bet on on the money line?
Quote: SOOPOOHow frequently will your system pick an underdog to bet on on the money line?
My system is based on bet size and bankroll management.
Quote: es330tdMy system is based on bet size and bankroll management.
If that is the case it is bound to be a losing system, because, well, it is a system! But I'll be rooting for you! Good luck.
Quote: es330tdNever. I only bet heavy favorites.
This is what made Mustang Sally and her husband very rich. So I'm guessing there's something to it if you have a solid plan. And disciplineD betting. And are willing to win pennies per dollar with lots of small bets.
Oh, I’m sorry to read that. I hoped your system exploited a bias that some Wizard’s comment and a 20-year backdata analysis had made you discover.Quote: es330tdMy system is based on bet size and bankroll management.
Bet size and bankroll management are tools to use on a positive EV. They will never beat a negative EV. And even favorites have (normally) a negative edge for the bettor. Unless a bias exists....
Like, if the book thinks the true odds is not attractive enough and lowers the price. Or, if the book underestimates how far the favorite is favorite...
Then, I guess, playing the favorite would be positive EV.
Quote: beachbumbabsThis is what made Mustang Sally and her husband very rich. So I'm guessing there's something to it if you have a solid plan. And disciplineD betting. And are willing to win pennies per dollar with lots of small bets.
I don’t get this reference to Mustang Sally. Can you elaborate?
Quote: SOOPOOIf that is the case it is bound to be a losing system, because, well, it is a system! But I'll be rooting for you! Good luck.
I thought this too but I haven’t gotten it to break in a year and a half of betting. Only by going on the record can I know if it works.
Quote: es330tdI don’t get this reference to Mustang Sally. Can you elaborate?
If you search for her as a member and read her most recent threads, (which are months old, maybe a year now), she described in much detail how they were betting heavy favorites. Then he died suddenly, leaving a huge cash out from their method, and she collected the money, moved away, and disappeared from the board here.
She's gone away for long periods before and returned, so she may be back again, but I'm guessing this time is different and she's moved on.
You'll have to work for it, because she took a couple months to drip info into the forum, but the aggregate is probably worth the read.
Maybe there is a language barrier here. Are you saying your systems inputs are only about bet size and bankroll management. There is no other criteria you use to select which heavy favorites to bet on?Quote: es330tdMy system is based on bet size and bankroll management.
Quote: unJonMaybe there is a language barrier here. Are you saying your systems inputs are only about bet size and bankroll management. There is no other criteria you use to select which heavy favorites to bet on?
My system is a combination of choosing games according to a criteria then sizing my bets based on bankroll and results.
Proof?Quote: beachbumbabsThis is what made Mustang Sally and her husband very rich.
Quote: beachbumbabsThis is what made Mustang Sally and her husband very rich. So I'm guessing there's something to it if you have a solid plan. And disciplineD betting. And are willing to win pennies per dollar with lots of small bets.
I believe she bet heavy favorites.
The “made them rich” part I’m not so sold on.
Quote: es330tdBalance: $34.24
Running Total: +0.36
Sport: MLB
Game: Oakland @ Houston 9/12/19
Pick: Houston - 259
Wager: $0.89
Oakland 3
Houston 2
How's the bankroll now? That's why betting only heavy favorites is an uphill battle. A couple of those and you cant recover without going all Martingale on us.
PS. I dont believe Mustang Sally and Mr. Sally made it rich betting heavy favorites either.
ZCore13
(quote truncates to relevant bit.)Quote: Zcore13Oakland 3
Houston 2
How's the bankroll now?
You can’t tell? He gave you the starting bankroll ($34.24) and the wager size ($0.89). I think there’s a mathematical relationship that will tell me what the bankroll is now. Hmmm. Maybe I’ll ask the Wiz if he can figure it out.
Promoting a system showing a one shot win is as silly as criticizing it showing a one shot loss.Quote:Oakland 3
Houston 2
How's the bankroll now? That's why betting only heavy favorites is an uphill battle. A couple of those and you cant recover without going all Martingale on us.
Es330 has the wisdom to show the whole process, and the lowbrow know-it-alls jump on the first down.
I remember playing a cards game with students. I was calculating expected gain.
I lost one game - chance is not always on your side.
Those st[y]pi[g]s were all, ‘‘You see, your math is worthless’’. Asini!
I confess I expected more math ‘savviness’ from members of this forum.
Maybe you believe wanking produces deafness. Maybe you believe Jesus existed for real.Quote: Zcore13PS. I dont believe Mustang Sally and Mr. Sally made it rich betting heavy favorites either.
Let me tell you: this forum doesn’t care what you —or I, or anybody— believe(s). Facts, just facts.
Quote: michael99000I believe she bet heavy favorites.
The “made them rich” part I’m not so sold on.
yeah especially when she claims to win on craps every time she plays
Quote: AxelWolfProof?
None exists. Awful lie by a mod.
LOLQuote: beachbumbabsThis is what made Mustang Sally and her husband very rich.
just a myth
When her Dad died, (I went to high school with her Dad) he left an insurance company and lots of cash to her and her Mom and they cashed in.
MS did not like the fact I was now interested in her Mom and not just the money, so she threw fits and moved her and her Mom to some new house and state way far, far from Nevada. (I do text with her Mom)
LOL
When MS husband died, she got a good deal of cash he had stashed away (her name was on the account)
that was different from the business he owned with his brother.
I think she got super rich after a court case she won.
she did ok with her Craps team play and her 'in-game heavy favorite money line betting' that most can not do as it is only offered online and at some casinos during the game and for only a few minutes at most.
the starter of this thread is a piece of work, imo
testing million games that he 'found' and could not validate that they are all 100% accurate
LOL
many have seen this over the years
nothing new here
Quote: SM777None exists. Awful lie by a mod.
Really? There are dozens of posts where she made or discussed that claim and how they did it . How exactly am I "lying" by discussing that claim, which DOES closely resemble what es is doing? I made the reference specifically so he could go look at what someone with heavy math chops was doing, in the archives here.
I don't lie. And I don't appreciate you claiming I do. Disbelieve MS all you want, but don't be calling me a liar here.
Quote: 7crapsLOL
just a myth
When her Dad died, (I went to high school with her Dad) he left an insurance company and lots of cash to her and her Mom and they cashed in.
MS did not like the fact I was now interested in her Mom and not just the money, so she threw fits and moved her and her Mom to some new house and state way far, far from Nevada. (I do text with her Mom)
LOL
When MS husband died, she got a good deal of cash he had stashed away (her name was on the account)
that was different from the business he owned with his brother.
I think she got super rich after a court case she won.
she did ok with her Craps team play and her 'in-game heavy favorite money line betting' that most can not do as it is only offered online and at some casinos during the game and for only a few minutes at most.
the starter of this thread is a piece of work, imo
testing million games that he 'found' and could not validate that they are all 100% accurate
LOL
many have seen this over the years
nothing new here
I really appreciate you giving us some info on what was going on with her. Thanks.
Balance: $33.35
Running Total: ($.57)
Record: 2-2
No wager 9/13/2019
Quote: beachbumbabsReally? There are dozens of posts where she made or discussed that claim and how they did it . How exactly am I "lying" by discussing that claim, which DOES closely resemble what es is doing? I made the reference specifically so he could go look at what someone with heavy math chops was doing, in the archives here.
I don't lie. And I don't appreciate you claiming I do. Disbelieve MS all you want, but don't be calling me a liar here.
"Made that claim" is proof her awful betting system made her rich?
I think I was 1 of 7 in here who immediately cried foul on that baseless claim, unless you consider Mustang Sally typing it proof. Which it appears many don't.
Absence of proof is not proof of absence.Quote: SM777"Made that claim" is proof her awful betting system made her rich?
I think I was 1 of 7 in here who immediately cried foul on that baseless claim, unless you consider Mustang Sally typing it proof. Which it appears many don't.
Or do you believe in God and astrology and such? It has not been ‘proven’ false.
If someone wrote here ‘Jesus saved me’, would you call them a liar?
Facts.
Just the facts.
something is off here.Quote: es330tdLast Result: ($0.89)
Balance: $33.35
Running Total: ($.57)
Record: 2-2
No wager 9/13/2019
was a post changed? I get this as current
| date | type | game | team 2 win | bet # | $ wager | total wagered | odds | result | net | total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9/6/2019 | MLB | SF @ LAD | Dodgers-260 | 1 | 0.84 | 0.84 | -260 | Loss | -0.84 | -0.84 |
| 9/7/2019 | MLB | Detroit @ Oakland | Oakland-282 | 2 | 2.82 | 3.66 | -282 | Win | 1 | 0.16 |
| 9/8/2019 | MLB | Detroit @ Oakland | Oakland-286 | 3 | 0.46 | 4.12 | -286 | Win | 0.16 | 0.32 |
| 9/9/2019 | NFL | Houston @ New Orleans | NO-289 | 4 | 0.96 | 5.08 | -289 | Win | 0.34 | 0.66 |
| 9/12/2019 | MLB | Oakland @ Houston | Houston - 259 | 5 | 0.89 | 5.97 | -259 | Loss | -0.89 | -0.23 |
| . | . | . | . | 6 | . | . | . | . | . | . |
| . | . | . | . | 7 | . | . | . | . | . | . |
| . | . | . | . | 8 | . | . | . | . | . | . |
| . | . | . | . | 9 | . | . | . | . | . | . |
| . | . | . | . | 10 | . | . | . | . | . | . |
| . | . | . | . | 11 | . | . | . | . | . | . |
| . | . | . | . | 12 | . | . | . | . | . | . |
| . | . | . | . | 13 | . | . | . | . | . | . |
| . | . | . | . | 14 | . | . | . | . | . | . |
| . | . | . | . | 15 | . | . | . | . | . | . |
| . | . | . | . | 16 | . | . | . | . | . | . |
sure.Quote: beachbumbabsI really appreciate you giving us some info on what was going on with her. Thanks.
it is all I know
in truth and reality, It was you (that I never met) that caused (well, started it rolling)
the friction between MS and me and her Mom.
I take ONE trip to Florida and
"I am cheating on her Mom"
LOL at the time.
If BBB reported what she thought to be true then I don't consider it a lie.Quote: SM777"Made that claim" is proof her awful betting system made her rich?
I think I was 1 of 7 in here who immediately cried foul on that baseless claim, unless you consider Mustang Sally typing it proof. Which it appears many don't.
I was also under the impression that Mustang Sally did YouTube reviews a things like Disney toys and whatnot. I was under the impression she did quite well doing those they were well done I can't really remember but I thought for sure they had a significant amount of views. Come to think of it your might have been a discussion about this already what she said they weren't doing well.
I don't know, I guess it really doesn't matter if they made tons of money via Sports and or craps... unless she's going to give us the secret sauce recipe. Whatever the case, whatever they were doing if it did work I would have to assume it took one hell of a bankroll and significant risk to eke out a small percentage win.
Lover or hater her, she was fun to have on the forum either way.
Quote: prozemaNew England is a heavy favorite this week. I think they will win. I'm not saying it's a good bet, but I didn't want you to miss a heavy favorite and that one is really heavy.
I see in college football Georgia is listed at -14600 over arkansas state
Quote: vegasI see in college football Georgia is listed at -14600 over arkansas state
I thought he was just betting professional sports.
Quote: prozemaI thought he was just betting professional sports.
You could be right. Even if he was betting college I think those odds would be a bit much.
Quote: es330tdBalance: $34.24
Running Total: +0.36
Sport: MLB
Game: Oakland @ Houston 9/12/19
Pick: Houston - 259
Wager: $0.89
The accounting is a little off here. You shortchanged yourself. It should be:
Balance: $34.28
Running Total: +0.66
Quote: es330tdLast Result: ($0.89)
Balance: $33.35
Running Total: ($.57)
Record: 2-2
No wager 9/13/2019
The .34 difference (.04 in the Balance and 0.30 in the Running Total) was carried over to your most recent tally, which should be:
Last Result ($0.89)
Balance: $34.28 -.0.89 = $33.69
Running Total: 0.66 - 0.89 = ($0.23)
Record: 3-2
This agrees with 7craps totals (although I think the 9/9 bet of 0.96 on NO-289 might have paid 0.33 instead of 0.34. Not sure)
As far as Georgis laying 146-1 yesterday. I'd say that was + EV. I would have lost a bridge jumper on Manchester City versus Norwich. MC had a long win streak against teams recently promoted to EPL. Not any more....
Quote: prozemaI thought he was just betting professional sports.
I am not going anywhere near college sports, especially college football. Too high a chance of a Michigan- Appalacian State.
Overlooked a candidate:
Last Result ($0.89)
Balance: $34.28 -.0.89 = $33.69
Running Total: 0.66 - 0.89 = ($0.23)
Record: 3-2
Sport: MLB
Game: Pirates @ Cubs 9/15/19
Pick: Cubs-254
Wager: $2.09
I also add I don’t like wagering MLB towards the end of the regular season. Picks in MLB are much more dependable when the season is competitive.
While this is not an official Wizard of Odds system challenge, in my testing I followed his conditions and could not get the strategy to break. As I have said in previous posts, I have devised a methodology that combines game selection, bet sizing and bankroll management. That is what I am testing.
Wrong.Quote: es330td<…> Martingale works if a person has an unlimited bankroll and a casino will accept a big enough wager.
First off, infinity does not exist in the concrete world. Neither unlimited bankroll, nor infinite time.
Hence, saying « this proposition is valid iff that impossible condition is true » is equivalent to saying « this proposition is false ». That is the basis of an argument ab absurdo.
But even then... Spending too long a time wagering too big amounts just to win ONE unit is not what I would call « working ». Your time has more value than that one unit, and the amounts have an opportunity cost much larger also.
And what’s the utility of winning one unit when you have infinite bankroll? One divided by infinity is zero.
