My sports bet tracking
As discussed in my previous post, I will not be discussing my strategy as this is merely a public record of my wagers
Balance: $33.92
MLB
SF @ LAD
Dodgers-260
Wager: $0.84
Edit: to those following this thread, I don’t need or want comments or feedback. This is solely for me to have a public record of my action. I am not trying to prove anything to anybody but myself. Yes, the wagers are low. I am only trying to show net upward progress.
ZCore13
Quote: es330td
Balance: $33.92
MLB
SF @ LAD
Dodgers-260
Wager: $0.84
if you win your bet on the Dodgers you'll win 32 cents
actually, I think it's great if you can get enjoyment out of the game by betting very small like that
good luck
that is good as, really, no one cares what your strategy is.Quote: es330tdAs discussed in my previous post, I will not be discussing my strategy...
in other words
just pick winners at above 60% rate at -$110
and heavy favorites like LA U picked (LOL)
good luck
been tried B4 and got slaughtered.
good luckQuote: es330tdBalance: $33.92
MLB
SF @ LAD
Dodgers-260
Wager: $0.84
Kershaw 64 pitches after 3 innings
after 4 innings: 81 pitches and 1 home run
game tied 1-1
Balance: 33.08
MLB
Detroit @ Oakland
Pick: Oakland-282
Wager: $2.82
good luckQuote: es330tdThis is proof of concept only.
tough picking large favorites that do not need to win
imo, you want to sell your system and make millions
LOL
in that case
no one cares
Love the format. Couple other things I'd recommend/ask for... Can you put a date next to the game, and under Balance can you put "Net" and keep a running tally of your + or - from the start of your first bet?Quote: es330tdRecord: 0-1
Balance: 33.08
MLB
Detroit @ Oakland
Pick: Oakland-282
Wager: $2.82
i.e.
Record: 0-1
Balance: 33.08
NET: -.84
MLB
Detroit @ Oakland 9/7/19
Pick: Oakland -282
Wager: $2.82
I guess we're assuming your only line will be coming from this one site since you're not price shopping multiple sites?
Looks like the Marty on heavy favorites. Oh boy fireworks might happen =).
Quote: es330tdThis is proof of concept only.
You dont need proof of concept. Just back test it.
Are these fake money or real dollars?Quote: es330tdHere goes…
Balance: $33.92
MLB
SF @ LAD
Dodgers-260
Wager: $0.84.
U 100% certain, with proof, that "he's not peddling BS nonsense" in the near future...Quote: RSDamn, tough crowd 'round here. As long as he's not peddling BS nonsense, let him do his thing.
show it, what you fear?
he has already placed the same stuff at 2 other sites I found, and I am totally a flckin' stewpid idiot and believe everyone and everything I read on the internet.
The OP is after proof
so OP can sell his system for millions $$$.
too much work making bets when buyers are all around. Popular Baccarat systems are listed on EBay for $50k and there are testimonies stating they work.
the writing is on the wall and I can read that.
"When I think back
On all the crap I learned in high school
It's a wonder
I can think at all
And though my lack of education
Hasn't hurt me none (nun?)
I can read the writing on the wall"
enjoy the flames
Quote: 7crapsU 100% certain, with proof, that "he's not peddling BS nonsense" in the near future...
show it, what you fear?
he has already placed the same stuff at 2 other sites I found, and I am totally a flckin' stewpid idiot and believe everyone and everything I read on the internet.
The OP is after proof
so OP can sell his system for millions $$$.
too much work making bets when buyers are all around. Popular Baccarat systems are listed on EBay for $50k and there are testimonies stating they work.
the writing is on the wall and I can read that.
"When I think back
On all the crap I learned in high school
It's a wonder
I can think at all
And though my lack of education
Hasn't hurt me none (nun?)
I can read the writing on the wall"
enjoy the flames
Dude, relax. r U 💯[hunnid!] percent % sUrE HE (HIM?) Wr0t3 tH3 sAmE tHinG 0n oTHr 4umZ or (err) weBSites?
I had to look up the videoQuote: DeMangoThank you Mr Kodachrome, Paul Simon!
his 1973 solo album There Goes Rhymin' Simon
best high school lyrics
teachers (most all of them) hated the song cuz of that (I.D.I.O.T.S.)
best school lyrics (Beach Boys)
"After six hours of school I've had enough for the day
I hit the radio dial and turn it up all the way
I gotta dance (dance dance dance now the beat's really hot) right on the spot"
interesting Kodachrome cover
Quote: 7craps
he has already placed the same stuff at 2 other sites I found, and I am totally a flckin' stewpid idiot and believe everyone and everything I read on the internet.
Can you please show me where I have posted this previously? The basis for my method came to me because of something I read here about two years ago. I don’t participate in any other sports betting forums that I know of.
I am not going to reveal this system to anybody but Mike Shackleford and even then only if he asks me directly what I am doing. I actually tested this in python using one million trials and will give him my source code.
The reason I am posting here is that I would like to put actual money behind something that has worked for me thus far. While I have been acting on my own, before I can commit real funds to this I have to go on the record publicly with my results.
You will never know what I am doing. Even if someone guesses exactly I will not confirm.
I think you have seen so many dishonest people you no longer believe someone can tell the truth.
Edit: these are real money bets I am making, despite the low values. When I say “put actual money” I mean $50 or $100 as opposed to $0.50.
Quote: RomesLove the format. Couple other things I'd recommend/ask for... Can you put a date next to the game, and under Balance can you put "Net" and keep a running tally of your + or - from the start of your first bet?
Yes. I kind of assumed that the date of my post would indicate the day of the game but I will add to my post explicitly.
Quote: Romes
I guess we're assuming your only line will be coming from this one site since you're not price shopping multiple sites?
I can only wager on this one site. I have to assume their line is close to what is available elsewhere. I haven’t checked. They match what ESPN shows on their gamecast previews.
Quote: Romes
Looks like the Marty on heavy favorites. Oh boy fireworks might happen =).
I don’t know what that is. I know very little about betting systems except that they aren’t supposed to work.
Edit: I just realized you might mean Martingale. If so then I know to what you refer. Will not confirm or deny but do realize it will be amusing to me to see what people guess I am doing if my record over my first 500 wagers continues to hold.
Last Result: won 1.00
Running balance: +$0.16
Record: 1-1 (.500)
Sport: MLB
Game: Detroit @ Oakland 9/8/19
Pick: Oakland-286
Wager: $0.46
And if you can put a starting bankroll that is of some importance. In other words, if you are 0-5 but have lost just $1.00, then just decide to start betting $2.00, go 0-5 again, then make a $100 bet, and win.... no one wants to hear you are up $80 after 11 bets.....
I am 4-0 this year by the way. I had Alabama money line yesterday.
Quote: SOOPOOI enjoy these threads. But I implore you NOT to put a 'record' down, as unless you are picking even money bets it is either meaningless, or misleading.
And if you can put a starting bankroll that is of some importance. In other words, if you are 0-5 but have lost just $1.00, then just decide to start betting $2.00, go 0-5 again, then make a $100 bet, and win.... no one wants to hear you are up $80 after 11 bets.....
I make one bet per day and post the amount of the bet. I don’t think it will be misleading to just keep the running balance.
Quote: SOOPOO
I am 4-0 this year by the way. I had Alabama money line yesterday.
Good thing you didnt have the spread. I think they won by 53 and the line was 55.
Quote: GWAEYou dont need proof of concept. Just back test it.
It is a lot more fun when there is actually something at stake.
Running Total: $0.32
Record: 2-1 (0.6666)
Sport: NFL
Game: Houston @ New Orleans
Pick: NO-289
Wager: $0.96
Running Total: $0.66
Record: 3-1 (0.75)
No wager for 9/10/19
So just an FYI, since you're doing this to test things and learn... The "sharp money" all around the sports betting arena was on the Texans +7. Glad you pulled it off (and so did my rather large bet Texans +7), but just a hint that it looks like you were on the wrong side there, at least according to all the sharp money bet in vegas and online.Quote: es330td...
Sport: NFL
Game: Houston @ New Orleans
Pick: NO-289
Wager: $0.96
Quote: es330tdI am not going to reveal this system to anybody but Mike Shackleford and even then only if he asks me directly what I am doing. I actually tested this in python using one million trials and will give him my source code.
betting on BIG favorites on the money line and betting BIG after a loss (the CHASE SYSTEM)
has been done at least 1.34 million times in the recent past.
It is a disaster waiting to happen and it does fail 100% of the time.
of course, many losers believe their way, and that is GREAT!
The top sports pickers laugh too.
so far
| bet # | $ wager | total wagered | odds | net | total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0.84 | 0.84 | -260 | -0.84 | -0.84 |
| 2 | 2.82 | 3.66 | -282 | 1 | 0.16 |
| 3 | 0.46 | 4.12 | -286 | 0.16 | 0.32 |
| 4 | 0.96 | 5.08 | -289 | 0.34 | 0.66 |
| 5 | . | . | . | . | . |
| 6 | . | . | . | . | . |
| 7 | . | . | . | . | . |
| 8 | . | . | . | . | . |
| 9 | . | . | . | . | . |
| 10 | . | . | . | . | . |
| 11 | . | . | . | . | . |
| 12 | . | . | . | . | . |
| 13 | . | . | . | . | . |
| 14 | . | . | . | . | . |
| 15 | . | . | . | . | . |
| 16 | . | . | . | . | . |
LOLQuote: es330tdYou will never know what I am doing. Even if someone guesses exactly I will not confirm.
great comedy!
take ALL the sports books cash and shut them all down
LOL
Well that is what was reported ATS, which did move to either +6.5 or +7 -120. But the money line didn’t move that way. Book I saw moved opposite direction from +240 earlier in day to +260.Quote: RomesSo just an FYI, since you're doing this to test things and learn... The "sharp money" all around the sports betting arena was on the Texans +7. Glad you pulled it off (and so did my rather large bet Texans +7), but just a hint that it looks like you were on the wrong side there, at least according to all the sharp money bet in vegas and online.
Quote: 7crapsbetting on BIG favorites on the money line and betting BIG after a loss (the CHASE SYSTEM)
has been done at least 1.34 million times in the recent past.
It is a disaster waiting to happen and it does fail 100% of the time.
When it does, I’ll quit. I am here because it has worked for me thus far and only by doing it where others can see can I know for certain.
Quote: 7craps
of course, many losers believe their way, and that is GREAT!
The top sports pickers laugh too.
LOL
great comedy!
take ALL the sports books cash and shut them all down
LOL
I’m playing with house money so why not test on someone else’s dime? Even if this worked, I’m not taking the book’s cash, just the bettors on the other side.
I'll be happy to save you some time and make you a declaration now.Quote: es330tdI will declare success or failure at that point.
do you know you can block the disparaging comments of those sinister know-it-alls, who for whatever bizarre psychological reason feel threatened when they see someone who knows his things better than they. Incompetence and lack of confidence are known to generate a need to belittle those who have competence and confidence.
Don’t read them. Don’t answer them. Misuse of your time and excessive respect for theirs.
Of course, even if you deny it, it is just too tempting as a game for us to guess what the system is. I would ask several questions if you had not explicitly said not to.
Keep on. It’s fun.
Quote: RomesSo just an FYI, since you're doing this to test things and learn... The "sharp money" all around the sports betting arena was on the Texans +7. Glad you pulled it off (and so did my rather large bet Texans +7), but just a hint that it looks like you were on the wrong side there, at least according to all the sharp money bet in vegas and online.
This is not accurate.
Quote: kubikulannI, among others, appreciate following your efforts.
Of course, even if you deny it, it is just too tempting as a game for us to guess what the system is. I would ask several questions if you had not explicitly said not to.
Keep on. It’s fun.
I fully expect people to attempt to guess what I am doing; in fact, I think that people will generally figure out what I am doing. What I am not going to do is confirm or deny people’s guesses. Like the guy who after my second pick said “Looks like a martingale on heavy favorites.” I didn’t reply to that to say yes or no.
Quote: kubikulannes330d,
do you know you can block the disparaging comments of those sinister know-it-alls, who for whatever bizarre psychological reason feel threatened when they see someone who knows his things better than they. Incompetence and lack of confidence are known to generate a need to belittle those who have competence and confidence.
Don’t read them. Don’t answer them. Misuse of your time and excessive respect for theirs.
I do know I can block comments. I want to see the criticism. I am here to see if something works and want to hear every last doubt or critique. I am being criticized after four data points; I have 500 so the early naysayers don’t really bother me. It is more amusing than anything else. I appreciate 7craps organizing my action in a clean table format.
The background behind this is pretty substantial. I was inspired to do this because of something Mike Shackleford wrote. I came up with the methodology and wrote a program to test it. I defined in the program what constituted success and failure, failure being total loss of bankroll. In 1 million trials it failed 14 times. As a person who has studied engineering I know this should not work and yet it has.
Everything I have done thus far has been done in secret. I could be making all of this up or I could have been altering in some way my activity to produce a desired outcome. What better way to verify the methodology then to do so publicly in the face of criticism?
I know why I pick the way I do; I have a well defined set of criteria so I don’t care what “the sharps“ are saying or doing. My picks are correct 69.2% thus far and that is sufficient when combined with my bet sizing algorithm. I have a pretty ambitious target to declare success and if there is something wrong with this methodology I am sure it will be exposed before reaching my success point. 500 isn’t that many trials so it could be I’ve just been lucky.
The only way to be certain is to do it “On the record.” Could there possibly be any better place to be proven right or wrong than a forum with a subheading that says “All betting systems are worthless?“
Quote: es330tdThanks but I have a method I am testing based on line, bet sizing and bankroll. I tested it using one million trials and I have followed it for 500 actual picks to get me here. In all that time I have never considered anyone else’s opinion or pick. I am going to keep to my method until I get to where I want or I am bankrupt. I will declare success or failure at that point.
If you go bankrupt betting .38 then you have some major life problems.
Quote: GWAEIf you go bankrupt betting .38 then you have some major life problems.
Lol. I have a bankroll number I am working against. In my other thread I said my balance at a betting site is about $34.
Quote: es330tdLol. I have a bankroll number I am working against. In my other thread I said my balance at a betting site is about $34.
yeah I saw that. Curious as to why you are not betting more. If you already tested it and have found it to do well why are you not betting $38 instead of .38. If I had a system that I truly that was good I wound start with $500 and see what happens. Trends and stats change so quickly. If you have a good thing going right now by the time you get some money down the trend could change and you missed out on your system.
Quote: GWAEyeah I saw that. Curious as to why you are not betting more. If you already tested it and have found it to do well why are you not betting $38 instead of .38. If I had a system that I truly that was good I wound start with $500 and see what happens. Trends and stats change so quickly. If you have a good thing going right now by the time you get some money down the trend could change and you missed out on your system.
The place I am betting does not allow a user to add funds. They give you a dollar of fake money to start with and then anything you win gets paid out in real money. I have built up my bankroll from wins. I haven’t looked for an online site I can use in Texas. Years ago I had an account at an online site (not sure if I can say the name) but got cut off when they changed the rules about online betting.
What I am relying on for my criteria should not ever change so I am not worried about missing out; in fact, I used twenty years of back data to choose my selection criteria. The system scales to the level I want so I have plenty of time. I have to be very certain this works before I commit to bigger money.
Quote: es330tdThe place I am betting does not allow a user to add funds. They give you a dollar of fake money to start with and then anything you win gets paid out in real money. I have built up my bankroll from wins. I haven’t looked for an online site I can use in Texas. Years ago I had an account at an online site (not sure if I can say the name) but got cut off when they changed the rules about online betting.
What I am relying on for my criteria should not ever change so I am not worried about missing out; in fact, I used twenty years of back data to choose my selection criteria. The system scales to the level I want so I have plenty of time. I have to be very certain this works before I commit to bigger money.
If that's the case then you should travel to somewhere to do good bets. Doesnt make any sense if you think you have a winning system to not be making money doing it. Screw the place with $1 free
Where did you find a place that gave you 20 years worth of money line betting lines?
Quote: es330tdIt was anecdotal. I relied on summaries from other sources. I didn’t look it up myself but found analyses from others telling me what I needed to know. I wasn’t looking for fine grained info.
You got money lines from people upto 20 years back? Please share that info.
Quote: GWAEIf that's the case then you should travel to somewhere to do good bets. Doesnt make any sense if you think you have a winning system to not be making money doing it. Screw the place with $1 free
Because I still don’t believe it myself. I had a thought occur to me when reading something Shackleford wrote. Curiosity made me throw together a quick test program and it didn’t blow up immediately like other systems. That then made me wonder if managing the bet sizes made a difference. After making this adjustment and running a couple thousand trial tests it only produced single digit failure rates. At that point I decided it had merit and decided to try it out on the site I had access to. I am still not certain I programmed my code right or that I am not somehow influencing the record. Next step is a public trial.
Quote: GWAEYou got money lines from people upto 20 years back? Please share that info.
I don’t have this. I searched for summary info I wanted. I can’t say more except that I learned what I needed to know.
Do you use code for neutrality, or because eye and hand cannot produce the answer?Quote: es330td. I am still not certain I programmed my code right or that I am not somehow influencing the record. Next step is a public trial.
Also, your statement that bankroll plays a role seems contradictory with first mentioning 33.92$ as a starting BR then switching to zero.
Quote: es330tdI don’t have this. I searched for summary info I wanted. I can’t say more except that I learned what I needed to know.
Then there is no way for you to know your system is working.
