Coronavirus math
Quote: MichaelBluejayBut both sets of people are a minority of the unvaccinated. ... it's not gonna be over any time soon.
More and more, I see the mask aversion, vaccination aversion, and other pandemic push-back as examples of the Dunning-Kruger effect. The Internet allows everyone to be their own "expert," and to assert their own opinion as equally worthy of consideration as anyone's MD or PhD, because the so-called expert saw a video about the issue this morning (or something similar).
If my Dunning-Kruger observations are accurate, Michael, I think your prediction is correct. If America continues to wrestle C-virus in the current haphazard manner, the pandemic won't be over for years. Many thanx for a great summary of our current situation. Much appreciated that you so often provide data to support your comments.
Quote: OnceDearhttps://coronavirus.jhu.edu/region/us/nevada
One of the problems with these numbers is the incubation period. How many visitors to Vegas catch the virus there but don't get sick until they get home, and how many people did they infect on their way home?
https://app.powerbigov.us/view?r=eyJrIjoiMjA2ZThiOWUtM2FlNS00MGY5LWFmYjUtNmQwNTQ3Nzg5N2I2IiwidCI6ImU0YTM0MGU2LWI4OWUtNGU2OC04ZWFhLTE1NDRkMjcwMzk4MCJ9
The recent hospitalization spike (under the "trends" tab) are really eye opening.
Not that it matters. Our Gov. tells us the crisis is over and masks and social distancing are in the past.
Quote: LuckyPhowIf my Dunning-Kruger observations are accurate, Michael, I think your prediction is correct. If America continues to wrestle C-virus in the current haphazard manner, the pandemic won't be over for years.
I agree. I'd go as far as to say that the USA will continue to wrestle C-virus in the current haphazard manner.
To a lesser extent the UK, Europe, Asia, Africa, [Insert region of your choosing] will similarly flounder.
There will be beacons of success, maybe such as Australia, New Zealand and even Hong Kong, but until all nations get it right, we are all part of the same haphazard manner. Meanwhile new global issues are incubating.
Look after you and yours.
OD
Nuff Said.
Maybe doing so could somewhat drive up the rate of junkies and homeless vaccinated, but other than that...
Maybe doing so could somewhat drive up the rate of junkies and homeless vaccinated, but other than that...
Quote: rxwineBased on what I've seen, many people will drive across town for a $5 play in casino cash, and then lose all their money.. You don't think there are some out there who would still take a meager incentive?
I'm sure there will be thousands nationwide. Perhaps hundreds of thousands. Every drop in the bucket counts. I'd do it the other way. $500 a month to every vaccinated American Citizen over 21.
That is the expected effect when the so-called public health officials shoot themselves in the backside, in the feet and in the mouth.Quote: LuckyPhow"The Internet allows everyone to be their own "expert," and to assert their own opinion as equally worthy of consideration as anyone's MD or PhD, because the so-called expert saw a video about the issue this morning."
The only reason I got vaccinated was for the free donuts.Quote: mcallister3200What a laughable insulting suggestion. We’ve already given non high earning people at least 36x that no comment on that specifically, $100 isn’t going to convince anyone but a child to do anything of consequence, he must think it’s still 1985 or something.
Quote: JoemanThe only reason I got vaccinated was for the free donuts.
i am jealous, i didn't get any food or snacks when i got vaccinated.
This is an ongoing promotion. You can get one each day if you want, assuming there is a participating KK near you.Quote: DRichQuote: JoemanThe only reason I got vaccinated was for the free donuts.
i am jealous, i didn't get any food or snacks when i got vaccinated.
It's time to reward yourself!
Quote: JoemanThis is an ongoing promotion. You can get one each day if you want, assuming there is a participating KK near you.Quote: DRichQuote: JoemanThe only reason I got vaccinated was for the free donuts.
i am jealous, i didn't get any food or snacks when i got vaccinated.
It's time to reward yourself!
I have no idea what a KK is.
Quote: rxwineBased on what I've seen, many people will drive across town for a $5 play in casino cash, and then lose all their money.. You don't think there are some out there who would still take a meager incentive?
I would include that in the “junkie” category, gambling junkies in this instance.
Would this free testing that is extended to an out of state resident extend to a non-U.S. national?
COVID-19 testing is performed at no cost to you. Health insurance companies are required to cover 100% of the cost. If you have insurance, we will ask for those details. If not, we may ask for identifying information in order to bill the federal program for the uninsured. In either case, you will owe nothing out of pocket.
Quote: DRichQuote: JoemanThis is an ongoing promotion. You can get one each day if you want, assuming there is a participating KK near you.Quote: DRichQuote: JoemanThe only reason I got vaccinated was for the free donuts.
i am jealous, i didn't get any food or snacks when i got vaccinated.
It's time to reward yourself!
I have no idea what a KK is.
Assuming Krispy Kreme donuts
My old club in NY is making vaccines mandatory for workers and guests. No honor code, either. Proof of vaccination required. Supposedly no exceptions but who knows how they actually enforce it.
Quote: DRich
I have no idea what a KK is.
Quote: DeMango
Assuming Krispy Kreme donuts
https://www.krispykreme.com/promos/vaccineoffer
Offer is valid at participating US locations only.
Quote: Keeneonehttps://www.krispykreme.com/promos/vaccineoffer
Offer is valid at participating US locations only.
Got it. Thank you
I assumed that you meant the vaccination site was giving away doughnuts. I surely wouldn't drive somewhere else to get one.
Quote: DRichGot it. Thank you
I assumed that you meant the vaccination site was giving away doughnuts. I surely wouldn't drive somewhere else to get one.
Do it on a Friday.
$1 dollar coke, free fries and a free donut. A breakfast any cardiologist would love.
Sorry, I am on a diet plus I am diabetic plus I have 3rd stage kidney failure. I also have an immune system to envy. I am fully vaccinated and believe this science: I am Covid immune. I cannot transmit the disease because I will not get the disease. If by some miniscule circumstance I do become infected, it will either be asymptomatic or mild in nature. The stats currently show that serious outcomes for the fully vaccinated are at 0.003+%. I really like those odds.Quote: billryanDo it on a Friday.
$1 dollar coke, free fries and a free donut. A breakfast any cardiologist would love.
tuttigym
Quote: tuttigymSorry, I am on a diet plus I am diabetic plus I have 3rd stage kidney failure. I also have an immune system to envy. I am fully vaccinated and believe this science: I am Covid immune. I cannot transmit the disease because I will not get the disease. If by some miniscule circumstance I do become infected, it will either be asymptomatic or mild in nature. The stats currently show that serious outcomes for the fully vaccinated are at 0.003+%. I really like those odds.
tuttigym
Believing you can't get the virus or transmit it is science fiction. Being fully vaccinated will almost definitely keep you from getting it bad enough to need to be hospitalized but you you can still get it and more importantly you can infect others with it.
Quote: billryanBelieving you can't get the virus or transmit it is science fiction. Being fully vaccinated will almost definitely keep you from getting it bad enough to need to be hospitalized but you you can still get it and more importantly you can infect others with it.
As previously written, the CDC's stats show 0.003+% chance. So it is the CDC's "science fiction"? Their message is so convoluted and mixed up belief in anything covid is anything but definitive or accurate.
tuttigym
tuttigym
Quote: DRichGot it. Thank you
I assumed that you meant the vaccination site was giving away doughnuts. I surely wouldn't drive somewhere else to get one.
The website suggests you can stop by a store once a day with a vaccine card to collect your doughnut.
They'd probably like you to buy a coffee or something, but if you're in the neighborhood and have a card and would like a doughnut...
Quote: billryanDo it on a Friday.
$1 dollar coke, free fries and a free donut. A breakfast any cardiologist would love.
what, i don't eat that poorly. i get the one dollar Sweet tea with my free french fry on fridays.
This is completely wrong, because you're conflating coronavirus with COVID.Quote: tuttigymI cannot transmit the disease because I will not get the disease.
Coronavirus is the organic matter that spreads from person to person.
COVID-19 is the disease *caused* by coronavirus.
A vaccinated person can still inhale coronavirus *particles*, and can still spew them on other people. Indeed, that's why CDC is recommending masks even for vaccinated people.
Also, the vaccines don't take the risk of infection down to zero. A few percent of people can still get sick, and even though they typically don't die, data suggests that they can transmit Delta just as easily as non-vaccinated people.
Quote: MichaelBluejayThis is completely wrong, because you're conflating coronavirus with COVID.
Coronavirus is the organic matter that spreads from person to person.
COVID-19 is the disease *caused* by coronavirus.
A vaccinated person can still inhale coronavirus *particles*, and can still spew them on other people. Indeed, that's why CDC is recommending masks even for vaccinated people.
Also, the vaccines don't take the risk of infection down to zero. A few percent of people can still get sick, and even though they typically don't die, data suggests that they can transmit Delta just as easily as non-vaccinated people.
I couldn't seem to find the right search words to find if there are any animal studies on the amount of virus one is exposed to, and the likelihood of contracting it. Mucous or saliva can sometimes stop small amount of infectious material before it actually encounters other body defenses. Not that people should really count on that. Just that people may be surprised they already had some contact with the virus and never realized how close they might have come to an active infection.
That first sentence seems to imply that the vaccinated person is just redistributing virus particles already in the air, which surely is not what you intended to say.Quote: MichaelBluejayA vaccinated person can still inhale coronavirus *particles*, and can still spew them on other people. Indeed, that's why CDC is recommending masks even for vaccinated people
"The CDC said the finding that fully vaccinated people could spread the virus was behind its move to change its mask guidance" but that spreading it does depend on breakthrough infections where the vaccinated person does become an infectious virus factory.
Personally, I tend to think that breakthrough infections are more common than 'they' want to portray.
The simple answer was coronavirus is much, MUCH bigger.Quote: tuttigymCan anyone tell us which molecule is larger: a covid-19 or an oxygen (O2)?
tuttigym
coronavirus diameter about 1 x 10^-7 metres
https://www.news-medical.net/health/The-Size-of-SARS-CoV-2-Compared-to-Other-Things.aspx
compared to
O2 molecule 1.2 x 10^-10 metres.
https://www.quora.com/What-is-the-molecular-diameter-of-oxygen?share=1
so very roughly 1000 times bigger
Intuitively I thought it would be 100s of thousands, but I seem to have been wrong in my guess.
It's too bad we don't have leaders capable of making such tough calls.
LOL. Minutes! That would be a plastic bag mandate. There would always be a few that wouldn't comply, so those that had would have wasted their lives.Quote: billryanSo if they made a mask mandate and made it so the masks didn't allow oxygen thru, we'd have this covid problem solved in a matter of days, maybe even hours.
It's too bad we don't have leaders capable of making such tough calls.
$:o)
Not dissimilar to asking everyone to isolate for 2 weeks. The virus would be extinct if we complied globally.... but for the few who didn't comply and then reseeded it.
Actually it worked pretty well in Wuhan where non compliance wasn't an option.
Now... Let's continue to steer clear of politics.
Quote: OnceDearThe simple answer was coronavirus is much, MUCH bigger.
coronavirus diameter about 1 x 10^-7 metres
https://www.news-medical.net/health/The-Size-of-SARS-CoV-2-Compared-to-Other-Things.aspx
compared to
O2 molecule 1.2 x 10^-10 metres.
https://www.quora.com/What-is-the-molecular-diameter-of-oxygen?share=1
so very roughly 1000 times bigger
Intuitively I thought it would be 100s of thousands, but I seem to have been wrong in my guess.
Thanks OD good info. Hand washing is regarded as a preventative action which is important in reducing the spread. However, the virus can enter one's system through the eyes. Those orifices are quite large enough to allow infection to enter. I am quite sure that there has been no study to determine possible transmission rates through those portals, but might be enlightening. Consider then not only masking but goggles for protection.
Conflicting statements about vaccination creating doubt in the populace is unfortunate. 164M+ vaccinated with only 6,000+ becoming infected says to me that their bodies might have rejected the treatment or some fell into the 5% non-efficacy group. I personally stand with those MD's who firmly believe those vaccinated cannot get nor spread the disease. 164M+ vs 6,000+ is a pretty overwhelming majority number. One other note: WE all sweat into the air and many of us spit and rinse out our mouths during and after exercise, what does that do for the infection rate? I choose not to live in fear of what may occur. The list of adverse events which may affect my well being are too long to contemplate and too intrusive to change my lifestyle.
tuttigym
Quote: billryanSo if they made a mask mandate and made it so the masks didn't allow oxygen thru, we'd have this covid problem solved in a matter of days, maybe even hours.
It's too bad we don't have leaders capable of making such tough calls.
Quoting OD ="Minutes" I am sure he also meant to say SUFFOCATION and death.
tuttigym
Your 6,000 figure is taken out of context and is wrong. The 6,000 figure is for people who have been hospitalized, not simply those who are infected.
Quote: billryanI've done a fair amount of reading on this and have seen very few doctors who have said a vaccinated person can not spread the virus. It's certainly not something I've seen Dr. Fauci or the CDC state. Do you have a link ?
Your 6,000 figure is taken out of context and is wrong. The 6,000 figure is for people who have been hospitalized, not simply those who are infected.
Dr. Fauci has been inconsistent at best and even unreliable at times in his pronouncements. The hospitalized figure for those infected after vaccination you cite is inaccurate. Perhaps you can provide a link or reliable source.
tuttigym
Quote: tuttigymDr. Fauci has been inconsistent at best and even unreliable at times in his pronouncements. The hospitalized figure for those infected after vaccination you cite is inaccurate. Perhaps you can provide a link or reliable source.
tuttigym
https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/breakthrough-covid-cases-least-125-000-fully-vaccinated-americans-have-n1275500
Some states even break it down by which vaccine one received, while other states, Florida for example, make it difficult to find out almost anything.
Quote: billryanhttps://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/breakthrough-covid-cases-least-125-000-fully-vaccinated-americans-have-n1275500
Some states even break it down by which vaccine one received, while other states, Florida for example, make it difficult to find out almost anything.
The CDC has done itself a disservice by de-emphasising its research and reporting of breakthrough cases.
Breakthrough source stats have all but been abandoned since May (Pre delta?), in favour of only researching breakthrough of those hospitalised.
Quote: cdcBeginning May 1, 2021, CDC transitioned from monitoring all reported COVID-19 vaccine breakthrough infections to investigating only those among patients who are hospitalized or die, thereby focusing on the cases of highest clinical and public health significance.
Quote: billryanhttps://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/breakthrough-covid-cases-least-125-000-fully-vaccinated-americans-have-n1275500
Some states even break it down by which vaccine one received, while other states, Florida for example, make it difficult to find out almost anything.
OK good. Thank you. What is interesting is that the article points out that less than 1% of those vaccinated, so far, are "breakthrough cases." As you correctly stated, 6-7k did result in hospitalizations which is a miniscule number of about .003+%. Being informed is so important so as to gage the overall threat. Many seem to be "hyperventilating" and exaggerating what we are facing, so that is why personal vigilance is of great value. The article also seems to infer that those who are successfully vaccinated cannot transmit the disease. I, personally, never take the flu vaccine as the efficacy rate is at about 60%. On the other hand, I was among the first to get the Moderna shots. I do not, at this time, feel the need to shelter myself or restrict my activities. I will continue to ask questions and seek credible information to guide me.
tuttigym
No. First of all, people don't transmit *the disease*, they transmit *coronavirus*, which is the biomatter that *causes* the disease, but is not the disease itself. Second, the article says explicitly that vaccinated people can transmit coronavirus:Quote: tuttigymThe article also seems to infer that those who are successfully vaccinated cannot transmit the disease.
Quote: NBC NewsThe CDC is now changing tactics amid new information showing that fully vaccinated people who get Covid can transmit the virus to others.
I'd suspect that is wrong. If they get it, I believe they are less likely to be symptomatic, but might well be contagious with high viral load, of the Delta variant.Quote: tuttigymThe article also seems to infer that those who are successfully vaccinated cannot transmit the disease.
tuttigym
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-9844761/CDC-FINALLY-releases-data-showing-vaccinated-people-viral-levels-Delta-variant.html
https://www.ibtimes.sg/delta-variant-attacks-vaccinated-people-same-viral-load-those-unvaccinated-data-59164
https://inews.co.uk/news/science/vaccinated-people-infected-delta-variant-contagious-unvaccinated-1128915
https://www.reuters.com/lifestyle/science/post-vaccination-infection-rare-possibly-contagious-study-refutes-another-anti-2021-05-26/ Note that pertains to May. Later, the Delta variant might have made that far worse.
Quote: tuttigymOK good. Thank you. What is interesting is that the article points out that less than 1% of those vaccinated, so far, are "breakthrough cases." As you correctly stated, 6-7k did result in hospitalizations which is a miniscule number of about .003+%. Being informed is so important so as to gage the overall threat. Many seem to be "hyperventilating" and exaggerating what we are facing, so that is why personal vigilance is of great value. The article also seems to infer that those who are successfully vaccinated cannot transmit the disease. I, personally, never take the flu vaccine as the efficacy rate is at about 60%. On the other hand, I was among the first to get the Moderna shots. I do not, at this time, feel the need to shelter myself or restrict my activities. I will continue to ask questions and seek credible information to guide me.
tuttigym
Can you highlight whatever it is in that article that makes you think a vaccinated person can't infect someone else.
FYI we have too much freezer burnt stuff left from the last "LockDown".
What the hell am I going to do with all this pizza sauce and jarred peaches that suck?
Quote: AxelWolfI'm ready for another Vacation. Oops, I meant to say lock Lockdown.
FYI we have too much freezer burnt stuff left from the last "LockDown".
What the hell am I going to do with all this pizza sauce and jarred peaches that suck?
I spent the last lockdown watching episodes of lockdown.
