Coronavirus math
January 6th, 2022 at 2:02:44 AM
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Generally, I believe that and hope it is true of this one.Quote: DeMangoQuote: OnceDearHopefully!Quote: unJonHearing there’s a new variant detected in France they think is more transmissible than Omicron. Hopefully it’s on the same trend of less severity too and pushes herd immunity down the home stretch.
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If it is, then Covid can take it's place in history as the dumbest bit of evolution since the giant panda.
don't count on it.
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Actually, if you listen to the scientists, each variant will spread faster and kill less.
I won't count on it, but I guess we will know soon.Quote:Count on it.
Listen to the fearmongers? I AM the fearmongers $:o)Quote:But you listen to the fear mongers instead.
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Actually I'm getting more optimistic about omicron, and I listen to all sides. It's just that I disagree with some.
Beware. The earth is NOT flat.
Hit and run is not a winning strategy:
Pressing into trends IS not a winning strategy:
Progressives are not a winning strategy:
Don't Buy It! .Don't even take it for free.
January 6th, 2022 at 4:33:28 AM
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You listen to all sides? Some sides are control freaks that ignore the science. To fully understand this you need to bring in politics, theology and money. Of course at least two no no's there. I don't worry about losing this argument, it will soon die kicking and screaming with all the billies and chumpsters being properly chastised. No matter what happens (allegedly) in Arizona. Fear of death is a powerful thing.
When a rock is thrown into a pack of dogs, the one that yells the loudest is the one who got hit.
January 6th, 2022 at 5:05:20 AM
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Quote: DeMangoQuote: OnceDearHopefully!Quote: unJonHearing there’s a new variant detected in France they think is more transmissible than Omicron. Hopefully it’s on the same trend of less severity too and pushes herd immunity down the home stretch.
link to original post
If it is, then Covid can take it's place in history as the dumbest bit of evolution since the giant panda.
don't count on it.
link to original post
Actually, if you listen to the scientists, each variant will spread faster and kill less. Count on it. But you listen to the fear mongers instead.
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That’s not true. It’s an evolutionary tendency that each new virus variant will be more transmissible and less severe. It’s not a necessity that each do so. The various genetic mutations are random. And one may cause more severity and more transmissibility (see Delta vs Beta). But that would be against the evolutionary pressure, so less likely as you run time forward.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
January 6th, 2022 at 5:16:24 AM
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Quote: unJonQuote: DeMangoQuote: OnceDearHopefully!Quote: unJonHearing there’s a new variant detected in France they think is more transmissible than Omicron. Hopefully it’s on the same trend of less severity too and pushes herd immunity down the home stretch.
link to original post
If it is, then Covid can take it's place in history as the dumbest bit of evolution since the giant panda.
don't count on it.
link to original post
Actually, if you listen to the scientists, each variant will spread faster and kill less. Count on it. But you listen to the fear mongers instead.
link to original post
That’s not true. It’s an evolutionary tendency that each new virus variant will be more transmissible and less severe. It’s not a necessity that each do so. The various genetic mutations are random. And one may cause more severity and more transmissibility (see Delta vs Beta). But that would be against the evolutionary pressure, so less likely as you run time forward.
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We do have the results from SWA that back up the evolutionary tendency! Nice try.
When a rock is thrown into a pack of dogs, the one that yells the loudest is the one who got hit.
January 6th, 2022 at 5:19:58 AM
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Quote: DeMangoQuote: unJonQuote: DeMangoQuote: OnceDearHopefully!Quote: unJonHearing there’s a new variant detected in France they think is more transmissible than Omicron. Hopefully it’s on the same trend of less severity too and pushes herd immunity down the home stretch.
link to original post
If it is, then Covid can take it's place in history as the dumbest bit of evolution since the giant panda.
don't count on it.
link to original post
Actually, if you listen to the scientists, each variant will spread faster and kill less. Count on it. But you listen to the fear mongers instead.
link to original post
That’s not true. It’s an evolutionary tendency that each new virus variant will be more transmissible and less severe. It’s not a necessity that each do so. The various genetic mutations are random. And one may cause more severity and more transmissibility (see Delta vs Beta). But that would be against the evolutionary pressure, so less likely as you run time forward.
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We do have the results from SWA that back up the evolutionary tendency! Nice try.
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I don’t know what SWA is. I also wasn’t trying. I was stating the science of it. Folk on both sides of the debate cherry-pick what they think is the science and ignore other bits.
I think I overall agree with you, generally. But your post above misstated and overstated what the science of evolution says.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
January 6th, 2022 at 5:34:13 AM
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RSA sorry, which used to be USA (Union) SWA is now Nambia. Republic of South Africa. Where all the good news about Omricon started.
When a rock is thrown into a pack of dogs, the one that yells the loudest is the one who got hit.
January 6th, 2022 at 5:38:51 AM
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Quote: DeMangoRSA sorry, which used to be USA (Union) SWA is now Nambia. Republic of South Africa. Where all the good news about Omricon started.
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Correct. Omicron looking like it fits the tendency. Delta did not. Will the next variant? No one knows. Over time it will tend to evolve that way, but no particular variant needs to fit the trend.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
January 6th, 2022 at 6:15:01 AM
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Quote: DeMango
We do have the results from SWA that back up the evolutionary tendency! Nice try.
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I lost all faith in SWA since Herb Kelleher passed away.
Order from chaos
January 6th, 2022 at 6:22:51 AM
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Quote: DRichQuote: DeMango
We do have the results from SWA that back up the evolutionary tendency! Nice try.
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I lost all faith in SWA since Herb Kelleher passed away.
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I hated SWA when I had to fly it for work. I'd rather take an hour cab to LGA than have to fly out of Islip on SWA.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
January 6th, 2022 at 9:55:41 AM
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Quote: DeMangoQuote: OnceDearHopefully!Quote: unJonHearing there’s a new variant detected in France they think is more transmissible than Omicron. Hopefully it’s on the same trend of less severity too and pushes herd immunity down the home stretch.
link to original post
If it is, then Covid can take it's place in history as the dumbest bit of evolution since the giant panda.
don't count on it.
link to original post
Actually, if you listen to the scientists, each variant will spread faster and kill less. Count on it. But you listen to the fear mongers instead.
link to original post
That's factually incorrect, it's just a general trend based on natural selection for a virus evolution to tend towards less severity and more transmissibility compared to the initial variant which jumped the species barrier over some period of time and x number of mutations.
But there is no specific inherent reason for a particular new variant to be less severe while more transmissible.
A new variant can easily exhibit both more severe and more transmissible qualities paired with optimal incubation period and waste entire population before it dies out with its hosts. There is a scientific concept in microbiology of viruses - optimal virulence, stating that a pathogen will evolve over time to an equilibrium point where its fitness is highest.
It's the combined efforts of scientists, medical workers, governments and citizens that helps weed out dangerous variants, not the virus evolution on it's own.
