Coronavirus math
Quote: DRichI am the child of a high school principal. Fortunately I was never picked on because of it.
Were you a student at the same school? In one of my schools, we had the nephew of the Principal in class, and he took some abuse, and no one trusted him.
Quote: billryanWere you a student at the same school? In one of my schools, we had the nephew of the Principal in class, and he took some abuse, and no one trusted him.
That's kind of what I'm talking about, but I'm sure individual mileage will vary. I know that the main thing was nobody wanted to do sleepovers or have them do sleepovers just because it would be, "Weird," to deal with the teacher outside of school. I'm talking mostly about late Elementary into the Middle School years. I tend to think, until you reach a certain age, you know better but almost think of your teachers as existing in some kind of weird vacuum only materializing in this reality when the morning bell rings.
Quote: DRichI am the child of a high school principal. Fortunately I was never picked on because of it.
Me too. My dad was actually a principal at my highschool for the first 2 years I was there.
No one ever bothered me over it.
My mom was also a teacher at my middle school. Never had a problem with anyone over that either.
My friend was never even a little unfriendly about it with me after that.
Quote: Mission146That's kind of what I'm talking about, but I'm sure individual mileage will vary. I know that the main thing was nobody wanted to do sleepovers or have them do sleepovers just because it would be, "Weird," to deal with the teacher outside of school. I'm talking mostly about late Elementary into the Middle School years. I tend to think, until you reach a certain age, you know better but almost think of your teachers as existing in some kind of weird vacuum only materializing in this reality when the morning bell rings.
My friends who went to the same middle school I went to and my mom taught would sleep over.
Honestly no one cared about any of this.
Quote: gamerfreakMy friends who went to the same middle school I went to and my mom taught would sleep over.
Honestly no one cared about any of this.
Like I said, individual mileage and experience will almost certainly vary. There are two kids, in particular, I’m thinking of who were picked on a good deal and I can’t think of what other possible reason there would be. There wasn’t anything wrong with either of them, from what I could tell.
So, Tom was talking about how he has donated antibodies several times, and that during his most recent donation, the amount of antibodies in his system had decreased fairly significantly.
This is one of MY concern as someone who recovered and tested positive for antibodies. The medical people have been all over the place in regards to how long any kind of immunity might last. For a cold, antibodies and immunity last for about a year (although you can get a different strain within that year). For other viruses, antibodies and immunity last anywhere from 2 months to a whole lifetime. They really are just guessing as to how long people who have recovered from Covid-19 might have some protection for, which is why I haven't rushed back into the 'casino portion' of my life.
And people that had very mild cases or were asymptomatic produce even less antibodies, which just throws this whole idea of "herd immunity" out the window. We are going to need a vaccine to get out from under this virus and I am guessing it is going to be more like a flu shot, where you have to get it every year, maybe adjusted for whatever strain is dominate that year.
I hate to be in the anti-vax ranks, but frankly, would I really want to take a vaccine pushed through in a year when vaccines normally take many years to sort out long term safety? I'm a complete believer in vaccinations, but a vaccine hustled through under this kind of political pressure? No thanks. Let the smoke clear and the long term effects made evident. I could just see a vaccine hurried into place for save-the-economy reasons, like early re-opening, and then another oops!!
We're watching the world leader in health care for decades destroying itself through utter, blatant stupidity. Just a complete debacle. The folks who took solace in "deaths are going down" are going to have to pivot to some new delusion in about a week.
This would mean the concept of natural herd immunity is out the window.
This is also raising the questions about how long a vaccine would provide immunity. I heard one scientist say people might need to be vaccinated every few months.
It is looking more and more to me that this virus is here for the long haul. I think life as we knew it before March 2020, might be a thing of the past for quite a while.
The Houston Chronicle obituary section was 43 pages on Sunday.
There's 21 deaths per page, so that's about 900 deaths in the newspaper.
Quote: kewljThere was some disappointing news concerning immunity that emerged yesterday. It appears antibody level drop considerably after about 2 month (even less in some cases) which is indicating immunity may be more on the level of weeks or months as opposed to years to lifetime as they were hoping for and is the case with some viruses. This is a fear I have had for a while now, which is why I decided not to rush back into my "casino life".
This would mean the concept of natural herd immunity is out the window.
This is also raising the questions about how long a vaccine would provide immunity. I heard one scientist say people might need to be vaccinated every few months.
It is looking more and more to me that this virus is here for the long haul. I think life as we knew it before March 2020, might be a thing of the past for quite a while.
Multiple international studies show little sustained protection once you've had it, as kewlJ said. Many people lose protection in 20-30 days. So yes, herd immunity out the window. Vaccinations, whenever they arrive, may be short lived and 70-75% efficacy.
New world -- time to get a boatload of good-looking masks and a couple of hazmat suits like Embiid wore to fly down for the NBA season. You can get some cheap-ass hazmat suits for reasonable prices.
We need a treatment.
FDA is slow but we are close.
Leronlimab!
CytoDyn shares slammed as BLA filing for leronlimab in HIV hits a wall – Endpoints News
https://endpts.com/cytodyn-shares-slammed-as-bla-filing-for-leronlimab-in-hiv-hits-a-wall/
Quote: ChumpChangeLooks out the window:
CytoDyn shares slammed as BLA filing for leronlimab in HIV hits a wall – Endpoints News
https://endpts.com/cytodyn-shares-slammed-as-bla-filing-for-leronlimab-in-hiv-hits-a-wall/
Looks out the window and sees everything is fine:
https://microcapdaily.com/leronlimab-positive-cc-put-cytodyn-inc-otcmktscydy-back-on-track/126515/
Quote: ChumpChangeLooks out the window:
CytoDyn shares slammed as BLA filing for leronlimab in HIV hits a wall – Endpoints News
https://endpts.com/cytodyn-shares-slammed-as-bla-filing-for-leronlimab-in-hiv-hits-a-wall/
So the SEC has called for them to stop the obvious stock promotion, and the man who holds the US rights is a notorious felon currently incarcerated for stock fraud among many other crimes.
If Dark Oz reads this link and continues to promote this pos and his stock fraud scheme, it will speak volumes about his character.
Quote: billryanSo the SEC has called for them to stop the obvious stock promotion, and the man who holds the US rights is a notorious felon currently incarcerated for stock fraud among many other crimes.
If Dark Oz reads this link and continues to promote this pos and his stock fraud scheme, it will speak volumes about his character.
Bill
Citron (an independent company) asked for the company to stop stock promotion and made fraudulent claims about the stock.
Not the SEC.
Citron was forced to retract their fraudulent claims.
Today the stock has bounced back.
And not even sure what you are talking about as far as an incarcerated felon holding the U$ rights
Quote: darkozBill
Citron (an independent company) asked for the company to stop stock promotion and made fraudulent claims about the stock.
Not the SEC.
Citron was forced to retract their fraudulent claims.
Today the stock has bounced back.
And not even sure what you are talking about as far as an incarcerated felon holding the U$ rights
Read the link.
Shkreli was convicted of numerous stock fraud-related crimes.
This smelled like one of his schemes from the get-go but I didn't realize he was actually involved in this until today. I thought this was being done by amateur stock manipulators, not by Shkreli and his proxies.
Quote: billryanVyera has US distribution rights if this ever gets approved. Perhaps you don't know much about Vyera. Few do. It is a company that is an offshoot of Turing, spun off to avoid the terrible publicity Turing got after its principal owner Martin Shkreli became the poster boy for corporate greed when he tried to raise the price of a life-saving medicine some 5000%.
Shkreli was convicted of numerous stock fraud-related crimes.
This smelled like one of his schemes from the get-go but I didn't realize he was actually involved in this until today. I thought this was being done by amateur stock manipulators, not by Shkreli and his proxies.
You do know the difference between a distributor and a company owner.
BTW, I guess American Regent must also be a part of it.
https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2020/07/03/2057591/0/en/CytoDyn-Announces-Execution-of-Exclusive-Agreement-with-American-Regent-for-Distribution-and-Supply-of-Leronlimab-for-Treatment-of-COVID-19-in-United-States.html
Quote: darkozYou do know the difference between a distributor and a company owner.
BTW, I guess American Regent must also be a part of it.
https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2020/07/03/2057591/0/en/CytoDyn-Announces-Execution-of-Exclusive-Agreement-with-American-Regent-for-Distribution-and-Supply-of-Leronlimab-for-Treatment-of-COVID-19-in-United-States.html
I find it odd that American Regent doesn't feel this worthy of including in the news section of their website. An exclusive agreement of the drug that is going to save the world and they don't find it newsworthy? On the other hand, why would a company with the drug that is going to save the world sign an exclusive deal with a third-tier distributor.
Quote: billryan
I know that no legit pharma company wants anything to do with Shkrei.
I find it odd that American Regent doesn't feel this worthy of including in the news section of their website. An exclusive agreement of the drug that is going to save the world and they don't find it newsworthy? On the other hand, why would a company with the drug that is going to save the world sign an exclusive deal with a third-tier distributor.
Quote: ChumpChangeLooks out the window:
CytoDyn shares slammed as BLA filing for leronlimab in HIV hits a wall – Endpoints News
https://endpts.com/cytodyn-shares-slammed-as-bla-filing-for-leronlimab-in-hiv-hits-a-wall/
This was a request for more information about leronlimab use for HIV... not COVID 19
Quote: darkozDon't need vaccines
We need a treatment.
FDA is slow but we are close.
Leronlimab!
Why leronlimnab? What about the dirt-cheap steroid (dexamethadone?) that has already been studied to death and has been tested to have greater efficacy than any leronlimnab stockholder claims - a 30% reduction in death rate? Who needs a leronlimnab treatment that costs thousands of dollars per treatment and that doesn't move the needle within the statistical noise, - with unknown side effects?
Quote: gordonm888Why leronlimnab? What about the dirt-cheap steroid (dexamethadone?) that has already been studied to death and has been tested to have greater efficacy than any leronlimnab stockholder claims - a 30% reduction in death rate? Who needs a leronlimnab treatment that costs thousands of dollars per treatment and that doesn't move the needle within the statistical noise, - with unknown side effects?
Gordon that is an excellent question although a few things you said are not correct.
Dexamethasone - it is a steroid that does have side effects. One is a reduced immune system.
Reducing the immune system of people who are sick with covid is NOT a good idea.
So why did it help with the death rate?
Covid-19 has two stages. The first is where your immune system fights it off. If successful then you wind up asymptomatic or just mildly sick.
If not, then your immune system goes into a bad overdrive. It's called a "Cytokine Storm". Look it up if you have not heard about it.
Dexamethasone helps because it suppresses the immune system when it's going haywire from the Cytokine Storm. Which means it's efficacy is only when you are seriously ill and hospitalized.
So is Dexamethasone cheap? Yes. But at the expense of a huge hospital bill which will ensue because it's only to be used for severe patients.
Ask yourself why the FDA has NOT made Dexamethasone the preferred treatment method for Covid-19 when it's so cheap and we'll studied?
As to Leronlimab
Unknown side effects? It has been used by over 1000 patients with no side effects including some who took it every week for years as an HIV treatment In fact it's safety profile is so much stronger than Dexamethasone that the FDA has not required a safety trial protocol. That's already been proven.
Efficacy - that's the whole point of the current FDA clinical trials
They are doing 2 separate trials.
1) mild symptoms
2) severe/critical hospitalized
The plan is to use Leronlimab for EVERYONE.
Seriously ill? Get saved from death.
Just mildly ill? Go to hospital, get injection, go home.
A heck of a lot cheaper than Dexamethasone if you have to wait till you are hospitalized, right?
And BTW - Remdesiver. IV use only. You also have to use it only when shouldering a massive hospital stay and bill.
I hope that answered your question
Quote: darkozGordon that is an excellent question although a few things you said are not correct.
Dexamethasone - it is a steroid that does have side effects. One is a reduced immune system.
Reducing the immune system of people who are sick with covid is NOT a good idea.
So why did it help with the death rate?
Covid-19 has two stages. The first is where your immune system fights it off. If successful then you wind up asymptomatic or just mildly sick.
If not, then your immune system goes into a bad overdrive. It's called a "Cytokine Storm". Look it up if you have not heard about it.
Dexamethasone helps because it suppresses the immune system when it's going haywire from the Cytokine Storm. Which means it's efficacy is only when you are seriously ill and hospitalized.
So is Dexamethasone cheap? Yes. But at the expense of a huge hospital bill which will ensue because it's only to be used for severe patients.
Ask yourself why the FDA has NOT made Dexamethasone the preferred treatment method for Covid-19 when it's so cheap and we'll studied?
As to Leronlimab
Unknown side effects? It has been used by over 1000 patients with no side effects including some who took it every week for years as an HIV treatment In fact it's safety profile is so much stronger than Dexamethasone that the FDA has not required a safety trial protocol. That's already been proven.
Efficacy - that's the whole point of the current FDA clinical trials
They are doing 2 separate trials.
1) mild symptoms
2) severe/critical hospitalized
The plan is to use Leronlimab for EVERYONE.
Seriously ill? Get saved from death.
Just mildly ill? Go to hospital, get injection, go home.
A heck of a lot cheaper than Dexamethasone if you have to wait till you are hospitalized, right?
And BTW - Remdesiver. IV use only. You also have to use it only when shouldering a massive hospital stay and bill.
I hope that answered your question
This is just sad.
Whatever answer you gave is WRONG.
Virus Math focuses on six feet but it doesn't take a genius to figure out there is a heck of a difference between six inches and six feet.
Whenever I hear a friend of a friend story, i take it with a grain of salt. Yet, I wouldn't be surprised at all.Quote: JoemanSo, a friend of mine told me this story of two of his friends that went to get tested for Covid 19. They went to a testing site, filled out the application, and waited... and waited... and waited. Finally they gave up and left without being tested. Well, a few days later, they received their 'results' in the mail. Both of them tested POSITIVE! Makes me wonder things I can't say without getting political.
Quote: mcallister3200al hva va vjaljv aljv alv haljv aljv h
Try not to pocket post
You also seem to think it's either die or it's no big deal. Many people don't die but are left with scarred lungs, and the newest thing in Arizona is people getting severe blood clots which can potentially kill you or cause a stroke.
Quote: billryanWhy do you think your chances of dying if infected are less than one percent? Please explain how you came up with that?
You also seem to think it's either die or it's no big deal. Many people don't die but are left with scarred lungs, and the newest thing in Arizona is people getting severe blood clots which can potentially kill you or cause a stroke.
I believe that there are more people who had the virus than is being reported. Many had either no or mild symptoms and just didn't get tested. I think many of the deaths were also of people who would die from any serious infection and it just happened to be COVID-19. I also believe that treatments are effective, and if I get the disease I will use whatever 'pull' I may have to get Remdesivir early, and maybe even Leronlimab. The dexamethasone is cheap and readily available and only efficacious towards the later stage of the disease so I'd get that if needed as well. I also believe with the added experience of treating people with the disease, doctors and nurses are just better at helping people get through this.
I 100% do NOT think that many people do not have serious long term consequences, and have posted earlier about the horrific life some COVID-19 pulmonary cripples may face.
So answer is really a guess..... but i think it is a well thought out, educated guess....
Quote: SOOPOOI believe that there are more people who had the virus than is being reported. Many had either no or mild symptoms and just didn't get tested. I think many of the deaths were also of people who would die from any serious infection and it just happened to be COVID-19. I also believe that treatments are effective, and if I get the disease I will use whatever 'pull' I may have to get Remdesivir early, and maybe even Leronlimab. The dexamethasone is cheap and readily available and only efficacious towards the later stage of the disease so I'd get that if needed as well. I also believe with the added experience of treating people with the disease, doctors and nurses are just better at helping people get through this.
I 100% do NOT think that many people do not have serious long term consequences, and have posted earlier about the horrific life some COVID-19 pulmonary cripples may face.
So answer is really a guess..... but i think it is a well thought out, educated guess....
Sounds like a WAG to me, but whatever works for you.
They don't even have space in the ER for new patients and can't contaminate uninfected.
The death rate is climbing again.
Anyone who thinks Remdesvir or Dexamethasone is the answer is wrong. If the answer was here we would not be going in the wrong direction
Quote: ChumpChangeI hear Russia is gonna know more about America's COVID pandemic than the CDC from now on. Will new hospitalizations & new deaths suddenly cease because the data has been swept away by *****?
I don't think the new, non-CDC hospital data system will "sweep away" public access to coronavirus infection, hospitalization, and death data. Most (all?) states currently make that data available, and IMHO that will not change. The fact that hospitals no longer send data to the CDC does not mean that no one else gets that data.
Who knows? The new hospital data system may work far better than the decades-old CDC system. And, if it doesn't work better, that will quickly become apparent also. I await future developments with great anticipation.
Cozy bear is the suspect. Fancy bear nearby.
Quote: ChumpChangeBREAKING: Russia is now hacking America and its allies to steal COVID-19 vaccine research.
I'm curious why we aren't sharing that information in the first place.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/15/continued-600-weekly-unemployment-boosts-could-be-delayed-for-weeks.html?__source=twitter%7Cinternational
Quote: billryanI'm curious why we aren't sharing that information in the first place.
If we or an American company spends billions on developing a vaccine we certainly would share that for cost with other suffering countries.
It would not be fair for it to be stolen by Russia which simply gets the benefits of a billion dollar vaccine they spent nothing on
Today we had 75,000.
A story is going around about a woman who went to the ER, but she was told she needed to get a CV19 test first. Her daughter took her to a test center where they waited four hours until the women passed out. An ambulance took her back to the original hospital, where she was admitted with sunstroke. I can't speak to this particular story but it's certainly typical.
The hospital in Sierra Vista was loaned a refrigerated truck in anticipation of it being needed soon.
They decided to park it out front with a big Temporary Morgue sign. I'd like to think it might help change some minds, but I doubt it.
