Coronavirus math
Quote: billryanEvery person who gets infected extends the pandemic a few weeks. These 30,000 new infections will interact with others, especially if they don't get sick themselves, and those newly infected will each infect a few more. In a few weeks we have 100,000 people walking around infected, many of whom will be insisting on their right to infect others.
But another big problem is MANY Americans simply became tired of whatever "lockdown" their state/local government required. And harshly enforcing a strict lockdown with big fines for non-compliance would have the country in even a bigger uproar.
I'm watching New Zealand rugby on my DVR now with thousands of fans. They can do this because they had a STRICT lockdown and literally quashed the virus.
There is ZERO community spread in NZ currently. Their approach was stem and swift, but it did work. And only 22 out of ~5M died from Covid-19. In this case, they almost certainly had more flu deaths. They estimate 400-500 flu deaths a year there.
https://www.noted.co.nz/health/health-health/influenza-nz-evolving-threat
Broadway now shut down till January with no date set even then.
I doubt NY casinos (aside from Indian casinos) will open before January either.
They won't be able to explain opening those large gatherings when Broadway is shuttered.
Quote: darkozhttps://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nytimes.com/2020/06/29/theater/when-broadway-reopening-coronavirus.amp.html
Broadway now shut down till January with no date set even then.
I doubt NY casinos (aside from Indian casinos) will open before January either.
They won't be able to explain opening those large gatherings when Broadway is shuttered.
Real question in NY is whether schools open in the fall. Cuomo said he wants to but that anything can happen over next two months, so he hasn’t committed.
Quote: darkozLol, NY is open.
We got our Coronavirus cases down to almost nothing.
Florida and Texas are going back to lockdown. It will hit Vegas too.
Pretty soon you will have to travel to NY for your gambling
Oh wait, we instituted a 14 day quarantine to keep all the sick people out. Too bad;
Schools open? Nope
Gambling in NY? Next year maybe?
Picking up my car at MSY, be in Biloxi in under two hours. Where you going today?
Quote: DeMangoSchools open? Nope
Gambling in NY? Next year maybe?
Picking up my car at MSY, be in Biloxi in under two hours. Where you going today?
Physically I am at the dentist having elective surgery done (tooth implant). Everyone here wearing masks in the office till we are seen.
If you mean where I am going for income I have made $16,000 this week on the stock market from home
then there is this from the CDC (linked) which impacts upon the concept of herd immunity:
"A positive test result shows you might have antibodies from an infection with the virus that causes COVID-19. However, there is a chance a positive result means that you have antibodies from an infection with a virus from the same family of viruses (called coronaviruses), such as the one that causes the common cold.
Having antibodies to the virus that causes COVID-19 𝐦𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐭 provide protection from getting infected with the virus again. If it does, 𝐰𝐞 𝐝𝐨 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐤𝐧𝐨𝐰 how much protection the antibodies might provide or how long this protection might last."
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/coronavirus-antibody-testing-inaccurate-data-60-minutes-2020-06-28/
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/testing/serology-overview.html
At the beginning of the evening a sensible group of people will be going out with a stay safe plan, including masks and social distancing. By the end of the night its no masks, sharing drinks, passing the pot and group hugs all around .Quote: rxwineOpening bars is the least sensible. Closed area, drunk people -- what could go wrong?
LOL!Quote: billryanApril of which year?
Quote: DeMangoSchools open? Nope
Gambling in NY? Next year maybe?
Picking up my car at MSY, be in Biloxi in under two hours. Where you going today?
Hope you wore a mask. Mississippi had 669 new cases yesterday, while here in the cesspool (NYC) with almost 3x the population of Mississippi, we had 240.
Quote: UP84Hope you wore a mask. Mississippi had 669 new cases yesterday, while here in the cesspool (NYC) with almost 3x the population of Mississippi, we had 240.
None of that matters. All that is important is the casinos are open.
Quote: billryanNone of that matters. All that is important is the casinos are open.
even if the casinos are closed a gambler can still play slots 𝘶𝘴𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘩𝘪𝘴 𝘱𝘩𝘰𝘯𝘦 with the offshore books that are probably technically illegal for U.S. citizens to use
and get some really cool free play too if they read the fine print very carefully and are willing to say "𝘩𝘰𝘸 𝘩𝘪𝘨𝘩" when the casino says "𝘫𝘶𝘮𝘱."
𝙃𝙊𝙒 𝙎𝙒𝙀𝙀𝙏 𝙇𝙄𝙁𝙀 𝙄𝙎..........................................................😄
Quote:A team at Henry Ford Health System in Southeast Michigan said Thursday its study of 2,541 hospitalized patients found that those given hydroxychloroquine were much less likely to die.
Dr. Marcus Zervos, division head of infectious disease for Henry Ford Health System, said 26% of those not given hydroxychloroquine died, compared to 13% of those who got the drug. The team looked back at everyone treated in the hospital system since the first patient in March.
"Overall crude mortality rates were 18.1% in the entire cohort, 13.5% in the hydroxychloroquine alone group, 20.1% among those receiving hydroxychloroquine plus azithromycin, 22.4% among the azithromycin alone group, and 26.4% for neither drug," the team wrote in a report published in the International Journal of Infectious Diseases.
Our results do differ from some other studies," Zervos told a news conference. "What we think was important in ours ... is that patients were treated early. For hydroxychloroquine to have a benefit, it needs to begin before the patients begin to suffer some of the severe immune reactions that patients can have with Covid," he added.
One thing I notice that differs from earlier claims, is the survival rate is better without azithromycin which was often being promoted along with hydroxychloroquine.
I don't know how much more of the older drugs need to finish trials. We'll either hear more positive results soon or nothing, I imagine.
Hearing calls from the resident TV doctor that indoor dining should be banned nationwide. You're about 19 times more likely to get sick with indoors dining than with outdoors dining.
Quote: gordonm888Well, the federal Coronavirus task force (I think it was Dr. Fauci) announced at the press conference last night a current projection of 100,000 to 200,000 deaths in the U.S. from covid-19. They also did admit that the modelers say that we would have to be "very lucky" for the number to be low as 100,000. A number of 240,000 deaths was their worst case in the set of modeling runs that they were relying on.
They (the President) also said that the number of deaths was roughly projected at 2.2 million without social distancing.
They also said that the projections could change based on unexpected events - "if more sites flare up then expected" was a specific example that they mentioned. Michigan has flared in the last several days and they seemed to indicate that that was unexpected.
Finally, they said that the only way to get the number under 100,000 deaths would be "mitigation" -which means, I guess, breakthroughs in treatments or possibly in vaccines.
So, now the armchair analysts amongst us have a benchmark projection to denounce or support.
Spot on from 3 months ago
Quote: DeMangoQuote: gordonm888Well, the federal Coronavirus task force (I think it was Dr. Fauci) announced at the press conference last night a current projection of 100,000 to 200,000 deaths in the U.S. from covid-19. They also did admit that the modelers say that we would have to be "very lucky" for the number to be low as 100,000. A number of 240,000 deaths was their worst case in the set of modeling runs that they were relying on.
They (the President) also said that the number of deaths was roughly projected at 2.2 million without social distancing.
They also said that the projections could change based on unexpected events - "if more sites flare up then expected" was a specific example that they mentioned. Michigan has flared in the last several days and they seemed to indicate that that was unexpected.
Finally, they said that the only way to get the number under 100,000 deaths would be "mitigation" -which means, I guess, breakthroughs in treatments or possibly in vaccines.
So, now the armchair analysts amongst us have a benchmark projection to denounce or support.
Spot on from 3 months ago
The worst is yet to come they say (WHO). Someone here predicted 40k is about it when the numbers were still low. This will be about 2-3 years long battle.
But deaths are the second worse thing about this. The main issue is the high contagiousness, hospitalization rate and long term damage and high odds of secondary infection (long lasting illness and predisposure to other lung problems).
Quote: DeMangoQuote: gordonm888Well, the federal Coronavirus task force (I think it was Dr. Fauci) announced at the press conference last night a current projection of 100,000 to 200,000 deaths in the U.S. from covid-19. They also did admit that the modelers say that we would have to be "very lucky" for the number to be low as 100,000. A number of 240,000 deaths was their worst case in the set of modeling runs that they were relying on.
They (the President) also said that the number of deaths was roughly projected at 2.2 million without social distancing.
They also said that the projections could change based on unexpected events - "if more sites flare up then expected" was a specific example that they mentioned. Michigan has flared in the last several days and they seemed to indicate that that was unexpected.
Finally, they said that the only way to get the number under 100,000 deaths would be "mitigation" -which means, I guess, breakthroughs in treatments or possibly in vaccines.
So, now the armchair analysts amongst us have a benchmark projection to denounce or support.
Spot on from 3 months ago
Why don't you post some of your posts from three months ago?
I suspect this multiplying in the body faster is the reason more healthy younger people are getting sick. the original strain used to take 7-10 day for a person to have any symptoms, if they were going to have symptoms. It took this long because the virus reproduced or multiplied slower. So during that 7-10 days that the virus was reproducing and gaining strength, a healthy immune system was already creating antibodies to fight off the virus. In healthy people with a strong immune system the virus never really got the upper hand. The results was young healthy people had minor or no symptoms.
So with the virus now reproducing and multiplying faster, even the young healthy people are having symptoms and getting sick to some degree before the body catches up with the antibodies to fight off the virus.
So more people are getting sick and having symptoms, including younger healthy people, BUT although the experts haven't come out and said it yet, the death rate is dropping. people are not getting as critically sick and dying at the same rate as March and April. That is good news.
And for those of us that have had covid-19, even in the earlier form, so far scientists are saying the antibodies from the earlier form are still working against the newer "mutated" strains. To be honest, even though they say that, I myself don't have a lot of confidence in that. This virus is too new and changing and I just don't think they know enough about immunity yet. That is why I have chosen to put the casino related part of my life on hold for a while. I am a risk vs reward type guy and I am just not comfortable with the risk of spending a lot of time in the casino environment yet.
Quote: kewljSo this virus has clearly mutated since it's early form. Scientists have labeled the virus that is dominate today as G614, while the virus from March and April was D614. I have no idea what those labels mean. But they are saying today's virus is more contagious than the earlier form and it multiplies in the body 3 to 9 times quicker.
I suspect this multiplying in the body faster is the reason more healthy younger people are getting sick. the original strain used to take 7-10 day for a person to have any symptoms, if they were going to have symptoms. It took this long because the virus reproduced or multiplied slower. So during that 7-10 days that the virus was reproducing and gaining strength, a healthy immune system was already creating antibodies to fight off the virus. In healthy people with a strong immune system the virus never really got the upper hand. The results was young healthy people had minor or no symptoms.
So with the virus now reproducing and multiplying faster, even the young healthy people are having symptoms and getting sick to some degree before the body catches up with the antibodies to fight off the virus.
So more people are getting sick and having symptoms, including younger healthy people, BUT although the experts haven't come out and said it yet, the death rate is dropping. people are not getting as critically sick and dying at the same rate as March and April. That is good news.
And for those of us that have had covid-19, even in the earlier form, so far scientists are saying the antibodies from the earlier form are still working against the newer "mutated" strains. To be honest, even though they say that, I myself don't have a lot of confidence in that. This virus is too new and changing and I just don't think they know enough about immunity yet. That is why I have chosen to put the casino related part of my life on hold for a while. I am a risk vs reward type guy and I am just not comfortable with the risk of spending a lot of time in the casino environment yet.
Kewlj
Therapuetic treatment coming soon will make this no biggie.
Just go to hospital and get a few shots.
Leronlimab coming soon
Quote: darkozKewlj
Therapuetic treatment coming soon will make this no biggie.
Just go to hospital and get a few shots.
Leronlimab coming soon
Why is this pitcher of Kool Aid empty?
Quote: unJonWhy is this pitcher of Kool Aid empty?
OH I LOVE IT!!!
When Leronlimab saves the world I will rub it in every naysayers face.
I tried to help you guys see best medical course being worked on.
Oh well, I will laugh all the way to the bank
Quote: billryan
Why don't you post some of your posts from three months ago?
How about you! My posts centered on mortality rate. Is it 3.4% yet?
Quote: darkozOH I LOVE IT!!!
When Leronlimab saves the world I will rub it in every naysayers face.
I tried to help you guys see best medical course being worked on.
Oh well, I will laugh all the way to the bank
I love your new positive stance. Beats being negative Nancy (Karen).
Quote: DeMangoI love your new positive stance. Beats being negative Nancy (Karen).
I have a whole thread on Leronlimab and how it will be a game changer for Covid-19.
I have been positive the whole time.
But while that drug is in clinical trials we still need to mitigate this with safety protocol.
A lot of news coming out next week.
I am excited!!!!
Quote: darkozOH I LOVE IT!!!
When Leronlimab saves the world I will rub it in every naysayers face.
I tried to help you guys see best medical course being worked on.
Oh well, I will laugh all the way to the bank
Nice. Just to be clear, the tone of my post was light hearted ribbing. I really hope your right. And I hope you make a killing on the stock. But it doesn’t seem like a layup to me and I get a chuckle at how certain your posts are on the topic. I’m a constant cynical skeptic. Just how my brain is wired. Means all my investment money is in broad based ETFs. I’ll never hit a 10 bagger.
Quote: unJonNice. Just to be clear, the tone of my post was light hearted ribbing. I really hope your right. And I hope you make a killing on the stock. But it doesn’t seem like a layup to me and I get a chuckle at how certain your posts are on the topic. I’m a constant cynical skeptic. Just how my brain is wired. Means all my investment money is in broad based ETFs. I’ll never hit a 10 bagger.
There are half a dozen positive signs.
I will probably post them midweek.
I will stress signs. So positivity, not decisively.
But stars are aligning
Quote: darkozThere are half a dozen positive signs.
I will probably post them midweek.
I will stress signs. So positivity, not decisively.
But stars are aligning
Would you buy more of the stock at the current price?
Quote: darkozI have a whole thread on Leronlimab and how it will be a game changer for Covid-19.
I have been positive the whole time.
But while that drug is in clinical trials we still need to mitigate this with safety protocol.
A lot of news coming out next week.
I am excited!!!!
The more I read about CytoDyn, the company that invented Leronlimab, it sounds like a very shady company. I hope I am wrong as I bought a few shares of their stock.
Quote: DRichThe more I read about CytoDyn, the company that invented Leronlimab, it sounds like a very shady company. I hope I am wrong as I bought a few shares of their stock.
Tons of red flags. On the other hand, even paranoids have enemies.
Quote: rawtuff
The worst is yet to come they say (WHO). Someone here predicted 40k is about it when the numbers were still low. This will be about 2-3 years long battle.
But deaths are the second worse thing about this. The main issue is the high contagiousness, hospitalization rate and long term damage and high odds of secondary infection (long lasting illness and predisposure to other lung problems).
I'm not really super negative about the future. But I do wonder if the real second wave is combination of the height of the flu season and coronavirus since you can conceivably get both. In fact you could even get a cold on top of those two.
Quote: unJonWould you buy more of the stock at the current price?
I had put in a buy at $4. The price was just a bit higher.
Then it did nothing but climb to $10.
The shorts hit it bad Wednesday and it went down to $4.65. Almost triggered the additional buy.
But it didn't.
I don't like pulling the shares I have at $2.94 up by purchasing at the current price. Other people are stockpiling this stock at $6. So who knows.
This is my first ever stock purchase so I am cautiously learning. I invested because I believe in this specific drug so highly
Quote: rxwineI'm not really super negative about the future. But I do wonder if the real second wave is combination of the height of the flu season and coronavirus since you can conceivably get both. In fact you could even get a cold on top of those two.
That's precisely an issue to look forward too.
It happened with the Spanish Flu making the 2nd wave hundreds of times worse
Quote: DRichThe more I read about CytoDyn, the company that invented Leronlimab, it sounds like a very shady company. I hope I am wrong as I bought a few shares of their stock.
There are some short owners of this stock that are doing very underhanded tactics to scare investors.
Distributing false and misleading negative info.
Follow the science
Doctors from Montefiore and Albert Einstein school of medicine
Doctors from UCLA.
Doctor Yo
Dr. Been. (He is having the CEO on his show tomorrow. You should watch it.)
They are all discussing this drug. They are putting their degrees on the line for a scam company?
The FDA approved trials
The drug has been in testing five years with over 900 patients under FDA.
It's real.
Good news coming.
How much did you invest. What price if I may ask? Before Wednesday short attack?
But if it goes to 0, I haven't mortgaged my future. Let's see how it plays out!
Quote: darkoz
How much did you invest. What price if I may ask? Before Wednesday short attack?
I did my usual for a "fun" stock and bought $1000 worth. It was around $3 when I bought.
They do go on to warn that as more death certificates are processed, the rate may go up. So, while I am cautiously optimistic, I can't see this as anything but good news.Quote: CDCThis is the tenth consecutive week of a declining percentage of deaths due to PIC [Pneumonia/Influenza/COVID-19]. The percentage is equal to the epidemic threshold of 5.9% for week 26.
Note, if you follow the link above, you have to scroll down almost the whole page to get to the above quote. It's under the Mortality Surveillance heading.
Maybe not a naysayer, but I have definitely been a skeptic. That said, I do hope you are right and get a chance to rub it in my face while laughing on your way to the bank!Quote: darkozWhen Leronlimab saves the world I will rub it in every naysayers face. I tried to help you guys see best medical course being worked on. Oh well, I will laugh all the way to the bank
1) It's not usually in the best interests of the virus to kill a high percentage of its hosts, so one might expect a slightly lower mortality as time goes by.
2) The most vulnerable tend to die first, so by definition, mortality rates will go down since the most vulnerable rate-wise are dead. Yes, I know this is a duh, but some people miss it.
3) Health care professionals eventually figure out what works and what does not, so care becomes more effective and efficient.
Having said that, the percentage of deaths due to the virus will start climbing again within a couple of weeks, maybe this week. There seems to be a real push by early re-openers to now define success/failure by deaths as opposed to prevalence of disease. Well, that will all go to hell in a couple of weeks, and they will need to pivot to new rationales. But until then, and this is ominous:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jul/08/warning-of-serious-brain-disorders-in-people-with-mild-covid-symptoms
People are presuming long-term effects are non-serious, which is really quite a self-serving, ignorant perspective considering there is no long-term data of any kind. It's nice to believe what one prefers to believe, but that should be called "religion," because that's what it is.
On July 4th, we exceeded 130,000. Anyone want to hazard a guess on what will be reported by Labor Day?
I started noticing this too some time ago and after a while realized some of these are Uber or Lyft drivers.Quote: mcallister3200I get and support the masks indoors and any crowded outdoor spaces, but that is up with all the people driving, by themselves, in their own cars with a mask on. What? Protecting themselves from themselves? I still don’t really understand it if the explanation is just going from one place to another where it’s required or advisable because, for me at least, it seems I have the choice between either fitting them so that it feels loose enough that it can’t really be doing much or that it hurts my ears after between 1-2 hours wearing it.
Not half as much as you were hoping for, according to all the early prognosticators.Quote: billryanFor all this discussion of falling death numbers, allow me to point out that on Memorial Day there were just under 100,000 dead Americans.
On July 4th, we exceeded 130,000. Anyone want to hazard a guess on what will be reported by Labor Day?
6 largest medical distributors have sent a letter to Congress, that "raw material for PPE is in a really bad position worldwide", and "material for gowns is unavailable at any price."
Quote: redietzA new virus' mortality rate should go down ...
3) Health care professionals eventually figure out what works and what does not, so care becomes more effective and efficient.
Just as we got the basic foundational science in place where the research might yield discoveries such as society now needs, KA-POW! The Guardian article you referenced is a real eye-opener. Many thanx. I wonder how "long-term" C-virus effects will manifest themselves. Aren't we already seeing push-back from some who refuse to cooperate with C-virus contract tracers?
My local data show spikes of new cases over Easter and over Memorial Day. That is, the number of new cases rose the week following Easter and the week following Memorial Day, but with a decline 2 weeks later. By the end of March, growth in new cases only went up, with no indication of leveling. I doubt anyone in Florida knows the state's true infection rate. Florida's data are suspect, an issue in national news a few months ago.
Neighbors with school-age children are increasingly uncomfortable with untested local school board "safe re-opening" plans containing so many "unknowns." More parents now realize the gamble on offer. They are betting with the health of their children, and possibly the health of others. How does that raise the overall risk of a family getting the virus?
From your article, coronavirus may be an illness that "keeps on giving" long after you thought you were well. Yech! I mean, thanx. Something more to watch...
I knew no one who homeschooled in NY, met a few in Vegas but it seems much more popular in Arizona.
Quote: billryanIs it my imagination or are many of the people advocating for schools to reopen also the biggest proponents of homeschooling?
I knew no one who homeschooled in NY, met a few in Vegas but it seems much more popular in Arizona.
I know two families in Las Vegas that are home schooling. Ironically in both of those families at least one parent is a public school teacher.
Quote: DRichI know two families in Las Vegas that are home schooling. Ironically in both of those families at least one parent is a public school teacher.
Not entirely surprising with bullying and such, especially if the kid/one of the kids is male. We had a few male students who were children of teachers as I was growing up and they'd take crap for it from time to time.
Quote: Mission146Not entirely surprising with bullying and such, especially if the kid/one of the kids is male. We had a few male students who were children of teachers as I was growing up and they'd take crap for it from time to time.
I am the child of a high school principal. Fortunately I was never picked on because of it.
