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darkoz
darkoz 
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September 16th, 2020 at 5:34:29 PM permalink
Quote: AZDuffman

We came awful close. And if we stay locked down we will be in one. Then you will actually have something to worry about.



Decisions are made as information is found. You do not lock a country down on a bunch of maybes. You do try to keep the population calm. Your reactions to this virus is exactly why you downplay threats early on.



While COVID-19 is new Coronavirus is not and certainly plague is not.

Your suggestion is to ignore all past precedent and just have a devil-may-care attitude. Country bedamned.
For Whom the bus tolls; The bus tolls for thee
rxwine
rxwine
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September 16th, 2020 at 5:56:08 PM permalink
Quote: AZDuffman


Decisions are made as information is found. You do not lock a country down on a bunch of maybes. You do try to keep the population calm. Your reactions to this virus is exactly why you downplay threats early on.



Leaders remain calm. But downplaying facts that matter is a fool's advice. If you observe people walking calmly out of a burning building who aren't walking fast enough to avoid getting trapped or burned alive you tell them to "run". You don't summarize later, "they died, but at least I didn't cause a panic".
Quasimodo? Does that name ring a bell?
darkoz
darkoz 
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September 16th, 2020 at 6:26:54 PM permalink
Quote: rxwine

Leaders remain calm. But downplaying facts that matter is a fool's advice. If you observe people walking calmly out of a burning building who aren't walking fast enough to avoid getting trapped or burned alive you tell them to "run". You don't summarize later, "they died, but at least I didn't cause a panic".



I'm pretty certain AZ would say, "take those kerchiefs and masks from off your face. Be free Americans and breathe in the fire fumes and smoke

"Don't let scientists tell you whether it's safe to breathe fire smoke. If you have diabetes or other health conditions it's not the fire killing you. We all die someday"
For Whom the bus tolls; The bus tolls for thee
redietz
redietz
Joined: Jun 5, 2019
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Minty
September 16th, 2020 at 8:06:26 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Great post. AZ has an agenda, which is to downplay the risks of COVID-19, and to laud the drug Trump trumpeted. It is clear by any objective person analyzing the available data that there is no statistically significant evidence that zinc/chloroquin is helpful. That of course does not rule out the possibility that it IS helpful. But if it is, it will not be a game changer. And AZ continually lowers the number of Covid-19 deaths by a ridiculous factor, because it suits his agenda, not because it is even close to being true.

These truths are self evident. COVID-19 is responsible for 100,000+ deaths in the USA. Most of the dead were old and sick already. But most were not on death's door yet.
The death rate for infected individuals is much lower than reported, as we don't know how many totally asymptomatic individuals were infected.

The argument should be on what our response should have been. Both my self evident facts, true as they are, do not tell us how much we should destroy the economy in the name of mitigating the spread of COVID-19.



I would think the first option would be to copy what other countries did -- namely more stringent lockdowns for 60-90 days. That pretty much got the virus under control across the board. New Zealand basically eliminated it with a harsh 75-day lockdown.

When the questions of economic damage come up, the question that doesn't usually get asked is why the U.S. should be considered more vulnerable, more fragile economically than Italy or Spain or South Korea or New Zealand and be unable to handle a lockdown sufficient to stamp down the virus. What is it about the U.S. economy that renders it so fragile? Or is "the economy will die" just an excuse to preserve the wealth of the top two percent who own 90% of the stocks? That's the question, and the U.S. better come up with an answer because this will not be the last pandemic in our lifetimes. The head of the South Korea infectious disease institute was asked when he expects the next one. His answer was four or five years, and he hopes to be retired by then.
"You can't breathe dead hippo waking, sleeping, and eating, and at the same time keep your precarious grip on existence."
AZDuffman
AZDuffman 
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September 17th, 2020 at 2:47:03 AM permalink
Quote: rxwine

Leaders remain calm. But downplaying facts that matter is a fool's advice. If you observe people walking calmly out of a burning building who aren't walking fast enough to avoid getting trapped or burned alive you tell them to "run". You don't summarize later, "they died, but at least I didn't cause a panic".



The first thing you do when there is a fire is tell people not to panic. Especially when the fire is small. I have been in several fire evacuations in my life. The rule was to leave orderly.
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
AZDuffman
AZDuffman 
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September 17th, 2020 at 2:49:52 AM permalink
Quote: darkoz

While COVID-19 is new Coronavirus is not and certainly plague is not.

Your suggestion is to ignore all past precedent and just have a devil-may-care attitude. Country bedamned.



My suggestion is to monitor the situation and take action when needed. With the virus only having killed 8,000 or so healthy people so far we did not need to destroy the economy. Those who had multiple other factors, i.e. the rest of the deaths, could have taken precautions on their own.

I look at it like an advantage player would look at it.
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
ChumpChange
ChumpChange 
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September 17th, 2020 at 2:51:08 AM permalink
This pandemic could wipe out most towns in 2-3 months if everybody jumped on the herd immunity train, but then they'd get it again because there is no immunity.
AZDuffman
AZDuffman 
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September 17th, 2020 at 2:53:29 AM permalink
Quote: ChumpChange

This pandemic could wipe out most towns in 2-3 months if everybody jumped on the herd immunity train, but then they'd get it again because there is no immunity.



You base this on what exactly?

99% of people who get it do not die. So how will it wipe towns out?
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
ChumpChange
ChumpChange 
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September 17th, 2020 at 3:20:19 AM permalink
15%-20% of those who get COVID-19 go to the hospital, if the hospitals are closed because of deadly pandemic panic, those 15%-20% will likely die. My county, and the country of Mexico have a 10% fatality rate. The rate of spread could go up by a factor of 10 every 10 days like what happened in NYC at the beginning.
Day 1: 10 cases
Day 10: 100 cases
Day 20: 1,000 cases
Day 30: 10,000 cases
Day 40: 100,000 cases
Day 50: 1 million cases
Day 60: 10 million cases.

We've escaped this onslaught due to state lockdowns in mid-March. 3-6 weeks later there were 10's of thousands of cases per day, and we're still there despite the lockdowns. There's over 6 million cases known, and there's not enough testing going on because the Federal Gov't has failed.

Frankly AZDuffman, I'm just about done writing to you about this subject. Don't ask my opinion anymore, and I'll have to ignore your opinion.
AZDuffman
AZDuffman 
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
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September 17th, 2020 at 4:21:57 AM permalink
Quote: ChumpChange

15%-20% of those who get COVID-19 go to the hospital, if the hospitals are closed because of deadly pandemic panic, those 15%-20% will likely die. My county, and the country of Mexico have a 10% fatality rate. The rate of spread could go up by a factor of 10 every 10 days like what happened in NYC at the beginning.
Day 1: 10 cases
Day 10: 100 cases
Day 20: 1,000 cases
Day 30: 10,000 cases
Day 40: 100,000 cases
Day 50: 1 million cases
Day 60: 10 million cases.


We've escaped this onslaught due to state lockdowns in mid-March. 3-6 weeks later there were 10's of thousands of cases per day, and we're still there despite the lockdowns. There's over 6 million cases known, and there's not enough testing going on because the Federal Gov't has failed.

Frankly AZDuffman, I'm just about done writing to you about this subject. Don't ask my opinion anymore, and I'll have to ignore your opinion.



You say there are 6MM cases which shows your "factor of 10" to be false. We are at about day 200 and you said there are only 6 million cases. By your numbers there by day 90 there would be 10 billion cases, IOW the entire planet would have had it and then some.

With only 20 people per state dying per day we really do not need so much more testing. In fact the curve has been flattened as deaths have been level for months now. Time to open up based on that standard.

I have not asked your opinion, I have merely shared mine. You want to stay in your house. I want to live a normal life.

Time to end the lockdowns and open up. Get rid of the mask rules. Let herd immunity do its job.
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others

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