Coronavirus math
It takes on average 5 days from exposure to the virus to develop symptoms of being infected. If you become infected with the virus, the chance of you dying is between .5% and 1.0% and that will take place on average 19 days later. So for 114 people to die on March 24th from the virus, somewhere between 11,400 and 22,800 people were infected with the virus on March 1st in New York.
114/.005=22,800 114/.01=11,400
Is it possible that these numbers are close to the truth?
Thanks
Queens , NY is starting to get attention as 13 people died in one hospital in a little over 24 hours. Two of my friends were in that very hospital but were transferred to a different one.
Quote: billryan237 US deaths today, and there is still many hours to go.
The US now leads the world in COVID cases. Once again America is great...at something.
Quote: GDBONESTo me at least part of the problem with controlling the spread of the virus in New York and in the rest of the country is that we missed the whole beginning of the outbreak. Everyone felt reassured that there were very few cases because there was no testing available. On March 1st, New York reported only one case of coronavirus, but looking at the 114 of new fatalities from the virus reported on 3/24, the actual number of people infected in New York on March 1st was actually quite a bit higher.
It takes on average 5 days from exposure to the virus to develop symptoms of being infected. If you become infected with the virus, the chance of you dying is between .5% and 1.0% and that will take place on average 19 days later. So for 114 people to die on March 24th from the virus, somewhere between 11,400 and 22,800 people were infected with the virus on March 1st in New York.
114/.005=22,800 114/.01=11,400
Is it possible that these numbers are close to the truth?
Thanks
This sure makes you consider how many people have already had and either died/recovered from undocumented COVID, let's call it "pre-USA-outbreak", during the original cold/flu season this year? Perhaps entire families and other cohorts have been exposed, shared, experienced signs/symptoms and recovered, essentially decreasing the "true-count" (lol, had to refer to gambling) or the "true death rate/count". I recall myself and several friends/family close to me being TOTALLY wiped out by 'something' from a time frame of Christmas Eve through the end of February, during REGULAR flu season. Specifically, I rode the couch HARD for about 3 days, right up to the time I left to go on a 3-4 day work trip in mid-Feb sometime. But I stayed my ass home, didn't go see a physician, drank my OJ and fluids, medicated, laid low, and I kicked it within about a week, which for me is a LONG ILLNESS. For those of you who know me, I'm generally speaking a young and healthy individual with a strong immune system. I'm the "basically have to be next to dying to see the doctor" kind of guy. But I can tell you what I didn't do during that time... go see my elderly grandparents, or visit with friends. I stayed in, and protected myself and got better. I know I'm not the first to think this, but perhaps this ENTIRE issue could have been avoided with just normal, healthy sanitary behaviors? How many times do we as casino-goers and airport-frequenters see folks (esp. Men) leave the restroom without washing their hands at all? Daily...
Sorry, this got more rambly than I meant for it to be. Be well.
-Bruce
Quote: Bruce1This sure makes you consider how many people have already had and either died/recovered from undocumented COVID, let's call it "pre-USA-outbreak", during the original cold/flu season this year? Perhaps entire families and other cohorts have been exposed, shared, experienced signs/symptoms and recovered, essentially decreasing the "true-count" (lol, had to refer to gambling) or the "true death rate/count". I recall myself and several friends/family close to me being TOTALLY wiped out by 'something' from a time frame of Christmas Eve through the end of February, during REGULAR flu season. Specifically, I rode the couch HARD for about 3 days, right up to the time I left to go on a 3-4 day work trip in mid-Feb sometime. But I stayed my ass home, didn't go see a physician, drank my OJ and fluids, medicated, laid low, and I kicked it within about a week, which for me is a LONG ILLNESS. For those of you who know me, I'm generally speaking a young and healthy individual with a strong immune system. I'm the "basically have to be next to dying to see the doctor" kind of guy. But I can tell you what I didn't do during that time... go see my elderly grandparents, or visit with friends. I stayed in, and protected myself and got better. I know I'm not the first to think this, but perhaps this ENTIRE issue could have been avoided with just normal, healthy sanitary behaviors? How many times do we as casino-goers and airport-frequenters see folks (esp. Men) leave the restroom without washing their hands at all? Daily...
Sorry, this got more rambly than I meant for it to be. Be well.
-Bruce
I think my whole family and friends network had that. Same time frame this past January - starts first night with vomiting and headache. Total lethargy.
After 2nd day small improvement. Third day is finally on road to recovery
That it?
Where there is smoke, there is fire. However, based on not seeing all kinds of deaths around us, it wasn't here. We're all hopeful we already have had it, but we didn't.Quote: Bruce1This sure makes you consider how many people have already had and either died/recovered from undocumented COVID, let's call it "pre-USA-outbreak", during the original cold/flu season this year? Perhaps entire families and other cohorts have been exposed, shared, experienced signs/symptoms and recovered, essentially decreasing the "true-count" (lol, had to refer to gambling) or the "true death rate/count". I recall myself and several friends/family close to me being TOTALLY wiped out by 'something' from a time frame of Christmas Eve through the end of February, during REGULAR flu season. Specifically, I rode the couch HARD for about 3 days, right up to the time I left to go on a 3-4 day work trip in mid-Feb sometime. But I stayed my ass home, didn't go see a physician, drank my OJ and fluids, medicated, laid low, and I kicked it within about a week, which for me is a LONG ILLNESS. For those of you who know me, I'm generally speaking a young and healthy individual with a strong immune system. I'm the "basically have to be next to dying to see the doctor" kind of guy. But I can tell you what I didn't do during that time... go see my elderly grandparents, or visit with friends. I stayed in, and protected myself and got better. I know I'm not the first to think this, but perhaps this ENTIRE issue could have been avoided with just normal, healthy sanitary behaviors? How many times do we as casino-goers and airport-frequenters see folks (esp. Men) leave the restroom without washing their hands at all? Daily...
Sorry, this got more rambly than I meant for it to be. Be well.
-Bruce
Quote: Bruce1Nope, no nausea/vomiting, mostly just cough, PND, congestion, severe headache, overall malaise. Probably the worst 'seasonal illness', call it what you want, in the adult portion of my life. I was HARD out of commission for a SOLID 3 days, the following 3 weren't fun, but tolerable. This is mostly irrelevant to the point of my comment though, regarding the "un-accounted for COVID patients".
Had that. Called the MN dept of health. Never had a fever. Their take was no fever = no test = no Covid. Wife had it so bad she went to the er. They wouldn't admit her, but had us buy a nebulizer so she could breathe. But, same thing - no fever, no test, "no Covid".
Quote: rdw4potusHad that. Called the MN dept of health. Never had a fever. Their take was no fever = no test = no Covid. Wife had it so bad she went to the er. They wouldn't admit her, but had us buy a nebulizer so she could breathe. But, same thing - no fever, no test, "no Covid".
They're starting to find that "no fever" is not as good a differentiation as they thought, specifically looking at Italy's stats. There are a significant number of cases that started with gastrointestinal issues, then moved to respiratory distress without fever, but still tested positive. I don't have numbers. I'm not sure they do.
Monkey sees Bruce able to go out , monkey wants to go out.
Suppose there is one or two percent of the population that can safely go out. So what? Is a factory going to reopen with two percent of the work force? Will a bar open up for two percent of its people? If it did, you can bet some people who shouldn't be out will go anyway.
Its not a bad theory, but putting it into practice simply isn't pragmatic.
We won't even get into false negatives.
Please don't be the weakest link.
We need to figure out who had it already using this method
Quote: Bruce1
Btw, did you lose your sense of smell? Never heard of that with the flu.
Quote: Bruce1This sure makes you consider how many people have already had and either died/recovered from undocumented COVID, let's call it "pre-USA-outbreak", during the original cold/flu season this year? Perhaps entire families and other cohorts have been exposed, shared, experienced signs/symptoms and recovered, essentially decreasing the "true-count" (lol, had to refer to gambling) or the "true death rate/count". I recall myself and several friends/family close to me being TOTALLY wiped out by 'something' from a time frame of Christmas Eve through the end of February, during REGULAR flu season. Specifically, I rode the couch HARD for about 3 days, right up to the time I left to go on a 3-4 day work trip in mid-Feb sometime. But I stayed my ass home, didn't go see a physician, drank my OJ and fluids, medicated, laid low, and I kicked it within about a week, which for me is a LONG ILLNESS. For those of you who know me, I'm generally speaking a young and healthy individual with a strong immune system. I'm the "basically have to be next to dying to see the doctor" kind of guy. But I can tell you what I didn't do during that time... go see my elderly grandparents, or visit with friends. I stayed in, and protected myself and got better. I know I'm not the first to think this, but perhaps this ENTIRE issue could have been avoided with just normal, healthy sanitary behaviors? How many times do we as casino-goers and airport-frequenters see folks (esp. Men) leave the restroom without washing their hands at all? Daily...
Sorry, this got more rambly than I meant for it to be. Be well.
-Bruce
I went to the urgent care for the first time in years on Christmas Day. Part of me really hopes it somehow was this. But not counting on it.
Quote: rxwineBtw, did you lose your sense of smell? Never heard of that with the flu.
That's VERY common with colds.
Well that was before, now with some cases being verified where we live, maybe during this time, we may have had it. Sounds just about the same, just not as likely to be a survivor when you're really a COVID VIRGIN.
I don't think take-out delivery food is safe, I will no longer be having it. If someone spits on your pizza by accident, who knows, I think you're getting it if you're not microwaving the food really well. Who will do this to a salad or a hot pizza. This is stress, at some point in the future, we are either dead or recovered, or somehow unaffected, this will be where to focus.
SIGH :(
This will crash the hospital system. With no ICUs available, the disease mortality rate will be running to 15% from then on.
So America hits 100,000 cases by the weekend, it could hit a million cases by April 7, hit 10 million cases by April 17, hit 100 million cases by April 27.
Extreme prolonged lockdowns could slow this whole thing down, but you'll still crash the hospital system by the end of summer.
So, if lockdowns are outlawed, hospitals crash, the disease mortality rate goes to 15%, but everybody else doing normal things can't go to the hospital, period! Get in a car crash on the way to work? The hospital is a hot zone, can't go in there. The mortality rate of people dying doing other things could add up to 20%. So 15% + 20% = about a 1/3rd chance of dying in this pandemic in America.
What China is doing is interesting but they have to ban visitors now because everybody else is still contagious. Other states are looking at New York and telling New Yorkers to quarantine for 14 days or leave their state. I expect the military will shut down the New York State border within 2 weeks.
So if you live in a city of 1.5 million, 225,000 could die from the disease, 300,000 could die of the anarchy of Mad Max, for a total of 525,000 or just over 1/3rd. All that could take 2-4 months. YMMV
Quote: KeyserThat's VERY common with colds.
I never have. Unless my nose is so stuffy that I can't breathe through it.
I believe rxwine is talking about losing smell/taste before you show any real symptoms of Covid-19, which has been reported more recently.
Quote: ChumpChangeIt will spread by a factor of 10 every 6 days, unless you throw in some social distancing then it might take 8-10 days.
This will crash the hospital system. With no ICUs available, the disease mortality rate will be running to 15% from then on.
So America hits 100,000 cases by the weekend, it could hit a million cases by April 7, hit 10 million cases by April 17, hit 100 million cases by April 27.
Extreme prolonged lockdowns could slow this whole thing down, but you'll still crash the hospital system by the end of summer.
So, if lockdowns are outlawed, hospitals crash, the disease mortality rate goes to 15%, but everybody else doing normal things can't go to the hospital, period! Get in a car crash on the way to work? The hospital is a hot zone, can't go in there. The mortality rate of people dying doing other things could add up to 20%. So 15% + 20% = about a 1/3rd chance of dying in this pandemic in America.
What China is doing is interesting but they have to ban visitors now because everybody else is still contagious. Other states are looking at New York and telling New Yorkers to quarantine for 14 days or leave their state. I expect the military will shut down the New York State border within 2 weeks.
So if you live in a city of 1.5 million, 225,000 could die from the disease, 300,000 could die of the anarchy of Mad Max, for a total of 525,000 or just over 1/3rd. All that could take 2-4 months. YMMV
Hoover dam, what a load of garbage.
At least in the US, the only people getting tested are those who show up to the hospital with severe symptoms, so the mortality rate among those who are tested will be exaggerated.
Obviously the mortality rate will go up as ventilators/medical resources become strained.
Iceland was in a unique position to have the capability to test a huge percentage of their population, They reported that among those who tested positive, something like 60% were completely asymptomatic.
You will continue to hear reports of healthy 30 somethings dying from this. With so many people getting infected, that is expected. Although not common, young and healthy people die from the flu every year, you just never hear about it.
Who knows why some people get 0 symptoms and others end up in the ICU. It’s really just a genetic lottery at this point.
Quote: DeMangoHoover dam, what a load of garbage.
Yeah. Those numbers are pretty off I think. A factor of ten every 6 days isn't sustainable I think with the current data. I'm on the pessimistic side still, but I'm thinking we'll still be under 100k deaths nationwide. Hopefully closer to 25k-50k.
Quote: gamerfreak
Who knows why some people get 0 symptoms and others end up in the ICU. It’s really just a genetic lottery at this point.
Yeah this part of the disease is quite scary to me. I'm thinking your genetics can help or hurt you with this. :(
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_flu_pandemic_by_country
2009 pandemic world total Stats
https://www.beckershospitalreview.com/public-health/swine-flu-8-facts-about-the-world-s-last-pandemic-in-2009.html?fbclid=IwAR0grksKBMcVo77hQVC6_jcyVhD04-sLevdQCwB37bpvdIYXuN4qNgXIW_I
2009 pandemic had a vaccine in 2009.
https://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/vaccination/vaccine_keyfacts.htm?fbclid=IwAR1T4c1PhVm08X4j6HbQ3QXiIwXANZ4B2aUhu-A-DdI9p-RwsEU9hLvF2yQ
Quote: tringlomaneYeah. Those numbers are pretty off I think. A factor of ten every 6 days isn't sustainable I think with the current data. I'm on the pessimistic side still, but I'm thinking we'll still be under 100k deaths nationwide. Hopefully closer to 25k-50k.
Couple of Doctors at Stanford thinking .01% mortality nationwide, 20-40K, or same as the normal flu season.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_flu_pandemic_by_country
2009 pandemic world total Stats
https://www.beckershospitalreview.com/public-health/swine-flu-8-facts-about-the-world-s-last-pandemic-in-2009.html?fbclid=IwAR0grksKBMcVo77hQVC6_jcyVhD04-sLevdQCwB37bpvdIYXuN4qNgXIW_I
2009 had a vaccine in oct 2009.
https://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/vaccination/vaccine_keyfacts.htm?fbclid=IwAR1T4c1PhVm08X4j6HbQ3QXiIwXANZ4B2aUhu-A-DdI9p-RwsEU9hLvF2yQ
Since we've done such a large prison release, perhaps we could put smokers in the prisons to protect them, and the rest of us from them, and the diseases that often follow the smokers.
Quote: DeMangoCouple of Doctors at Stanford thinking .01% mortality nationwide, 20-40K, or same as the normal flu season.
WE will be over 2,000 dead by Saturday and almost certainly over 5,000 in a week. How many dead will it take before you stop comparing it to the flu? Do you have any reason to think these daily numbers won't keep going up for the next month?
This is a hundred year storm.Hopefully it doesn't grow into a five hundred year one.
The Government just ordered GM to start producing vitally needed goods, but we are looking at mid June for them to convert production lines.I assume that means they think this will still be a problem after that. If it doubles once a week for ten weeks, we are screwed.
A Vaccine is many months away, at best and if those anti-malaria drugs work, the math still looks bad.
If you have a reason to be optimistic, please share.
Quote: billryanWE will be over 2,000 dead by Saturday and almost certainly over 5,000 in a week. How many dead will it take before you stop comparing it to the flu? Do you have any reason to think these daily numbers won't keep going up for the next month?
This is a hundred year storm.Hopefully it doesn't grow into a five hundred year one.
The Government just ordered GM to start producing vitally needed goods, but we are looking at mid June for them to convert production lines.I assume that means they think this will still be a problem after that. If it doubles once a week for ten weeks, we are screwed.
A Vaccine is many months away, at best and if those anti-malaria drugs work, the math still looks bad.
If you have a reason to be optimistic, please share.
Can you read? The math is changing with more stats coming in. 1% mortality is more than 3 million. In the US. Seems that’s what you want.
Quote: DeMangoCan you read? The math is changing with more stats coming in. 1% mortality is more than 3 million. In the US. Seems that’s what you want.
The math is getting worse. Or am I missing something?
What I want is for everyone to do their part, like the President asked , and I'd love people to take this seriously.
The NYPD has 12% of its Officers out , many in self quarantine. Many exposed by people who shouldn't have been there. What happens if that keeps pace with the virus. As more people get sick, there will be less people to care for them. If this is anything like Italy or Spain, hundreds of Doctors will die. Who replaces them?
Quote: onenickelmiracle
I don't think take-out delivery food is safe,
SIGH :(
We have avoided all take-out since our pseudo quarantine. They touch the bag, may breathe on the food or packaging, etc.... Son went to pick up a pizza, said although not crushed like a sardine on a New York Subway, it was crowded waiting.
The problem is, there is a lot of math out there. The more that gets tested the worse it looks. The President even predicted that would happen. If, if we believe China it’s over right? A lot of chicken littles out there who don’t want somebody re-elected. And they are in charge of most of the press, spreading a ton of misinformation.Quote: billryanThe math is getting worse. Or am I missing something?
What I want is for everyone to do their part, like the President asked , and I'd love people to take this seriously.
Today I got a “get out of jail” card, actually a letter from the USPS. This letter will inform any and all authorities that I am an essential worker, authorized to drive a car to and from work. In addition to Postal ID badge. This is knuckin futs. Today the New York Times blamed the Christians! There are going to be a lot of disappointed folks when this clears up without martial law.
Quote: DeMangoCouple of Doctors at Stanford thinking .01% mortality nationwide, 20-40K, or same as the normal flu season.
Really? That low??
Do these Stanford doctors make any assumptions about hospitals functioning well or poorly? Is this a news interview? Or, a peer-reviewed journal article with a full explanation and a more detailed data analysis? I sure would like to know more... link, perhaps?
Quote: DeMangoCouple of Doctors at Stanford thinking .01% mortality nationwide, 20-40K, or same as the normal flu season.
So Italy has a complete healthcare breakdown every flu season. They just never showed it until this year.
The models I saw had optimistic variations predicting 80,000 U.S. deaths. That would be twice the annual regular flu deaths in half the time. Those were the optimistic if-we-shelter-in-place numbers.
I expect that it'll be considerably worse.
Quote: LuckyPhowReally? That low??
Do these Stanford doctors make any assumptions about hospitals functioning well or poorly? Is this a news interview? Or, a peer-reviewed journal article with a full explanation and a more detailed data analysis? I sure would like to know more... link, perhaps?
https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/coronavirus/stanford-doctors-coronavirus-fatality-rate-may-be-far-lower-current?fbclid=IwAR0EJBI7IKOm18QbdFcqh8zIh8mgVpPXWqTKKDEidmjO-thOrs68fHJsHQY#.Xn4heDm1PLt.facebook
Hopefully this works
Quote: redietzEstimates are for California to have 50% total population infected or more. New York 50-70%. Germany expects 50%-70%.
The models I saw had optimistic variations predicting 80,000 U.S. deaths. That would be twice the annual regular flu deaths in half the time. Those were the optimistic if-we-shelter-in-place numbers.
I expect that it'll be considerably worse.
From The Washington Post no less:https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/03/21/facing-covid-19-reality-national-lockdown-is-no-cure/
Quote: DeMangoFrom The Washington Post no less:https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/03/21/facing-covid-19-reality-national-lockdown-is-no-cure/
First of all, do you pay to see the Washington Post? I will not and I'm blocked from reading it.
Secondly, whatever they are saying is BS. If I have a house full of rats, cats, bats, whatever, and make no way to enter or leave, all the animals die eventually. Actually India is doing it now, so we'll see. If all the people didn't go along with it and some cheated, testing and hunting down chain of infection and quarantining would work. You either snuff this thing, or you get it over with. I'm still thinking infecting as many people not at risk and quarantining would fix most of the problem. All the hotel rooms in America are pretty much empty, the young can be placed there. Young school aged children can be kept at schools.
Quote: onenickelmiracleFirst of all, do you pay to see the Washington Post? I will not and I'm blocked from reading it.
Secondly, whatever they are saying is BS. If I have a house full of rats, cats, bats, whatever, and make no way to enter or leave, all the animals die eventually. Actually India is doing it now, so we'll see. If all the people didn't go along with it and some cheated, testing and hunting down chain of infection and quarantining would work. You either snuff this thing, or you get it over with. I'm still thinking infecting as many people not at risk and quarantining would fix most of the problem. All the hotel rooms in America are pretty much empty, the young can be placed there. Young school aged children can be kept at schools.
Interesting thought. But innkeepers ain't going to do that for free.
And that Stanford prediction is probably a bit optimistic. We'll probably be at 10k deaths in two weeks. It really depends on how deadly this is overall. Testing varies so greatly by state, it's still hard to say.
Can't say enough good things about Scott at VitalVegas and his reporting. If you are not on Twitter, these times would be a good reason.
https://www.newscientist.com/article/2238578-uk-has-enough-intensive-care-units-for-coronavirus-expert-predicts/
--helpmespock
Quote: jjjooogggThe swine flu vaccine was released in 6 months. I hope we see a Coronavirus vaccine in June or July.
As the real testing for the vaccine won't start until September, I'm afraid you might be a bit optimistic.
I realize people want go grasp at miracle solutions, but this fantasy that it is going to go away in two or three weeks is going to get a lot of people killed.
