OnceDear
Administrator
OnceDear
Joined: Jun 1, 2014
  • Threads: 43
  • Posts: 3819
January 16th, 2019 at 1:19:31 PM permalink
Quote: Sirius666

Thats fine and I apologize but putting answers / comments in bold type is not exactly respectful either, but again since we are pointing things out, you should know yes?


Anyway, In your whole Black jack career? Your whole Poker career? Your whole anything career? How much have you made and lost? and how far are you ahead or behind?

Seriously, I invite anyone to try and answer honestly? Because according to Vegas and all the reports that would mean virtually EVERYONE is behind and cluding 99.9% of all the people on this forum, including the trolls.

Happy to answer honestly.
I'm broadly speaking a recreatational Blackjack player. I seldom bother with card counting, but I do, from time to time, exploit certain casino weaknesses.
You can read all about how my bankroll has run from Jan 2014 to recently in my blog

I'm happly to hear that you've had some good luck in Baccarat, assuming you are not exploiting anything. With decent bankroll, that's not so unlikely...
https://wizardofvegas.com/member/oncedear/blog/5/#post1370 explains how little luck you nee to turn $x into $x+$y
Here's a good snapshot of my wins and losses
https://wizardofvegas.com/member/oncedear/blog/#post1752
If you are enjoying the game, you're already winning.
Zcore13
Zcore13
Joined: Nov 30, 2009
  • Threads: 34
  • Posts: 3293
Thanks for this post from:
Hunterhill
January 16th, 2019 at 1:22:25 PM permalink
Quote: Sirius666

Thats fine and I apologize but putting answers / comments in bold type is not exactly respectful either, but again since we are pointing things out, you should know yes?


Anyway, In your whole Black jack career? Your whole Poker career? Your whole anything career? How much have you made and lost? and how far are you ahead or behind?

Seriously, I invite anyone to try and answer honestly? Because according to Vegas and all the reports that would mean virtually EVERYONE is behind, INCLUDING 99.9% of all the people on this forum, including you.



You will also be a lifetime loser when it's all said and done. You have no special skills or method. There is no pattern or system to beat the game. You are not an AP. Unless you are cheating, which it seems you are not, you won't overcome the house advantage in the long run, no matter what you do.


ZCore13
I am an employee of a Casino. All the personal opinions I post are my own and do not represent the opinions of the Casino or Tribe that I work for.
OnceDear
Administrator
OnceDear
Joined: Jun 1, 2014
  • Threads: 43
  • Posts: 3819
Thanks for this post from:
Sirius666
January 16th, 2019 at 1:25:40 PM permalink
Quote: Sirius666

Either again, in your estimation, WHAT constitutes an baccarat AP? other than RFBs & other rebates / commission reductions?

Or does that just not simply exist?

There you have it. Doesn't exist.
If you are enjoying the game, you're already winning.
Sirius666
Sirius666
Joined: Jan 14, 2019
  • Threads: 2
  • Posts: 11
January 16th, 2019 at 1:28:10 PM permalink
I appreciate your response. I have seen you respond to a lot of posts, and I like them.

My issue is with a few things.

First, the reality that all games against the house are negative expectation games (setting poker and other games aside where you don't go against the house directly). With that fact, other than RFBs, rebates, commission reductions, there is no way to have long term success in any games?

Second, I here so much about Black jack card counting, but unless you are truly truly sharp, from what ive seen with my own eyes and read, most people fail at it, and badly.

Thirdly, Poker seems to require 100+ hours a week of reading and practice and 3-5 yrs before you could really try and get out there and beat people for real.

4th, this is not towards you specifically, but I have read a good size chunk of the posts here, and I get a very strong impression, besides people (excuse the bad word) trolling others, no one here or comes on here on a regular basis is actually very successful at any of these games. Seriously, like 99.9% of everyone fails. So who are all the people on this site that supposedly have knowledge?

I'm not trying to start anything or be argumentative, but who are all these people? I want to meet some of you and see what you all are capable of. I want to know how much you guys are ahead or behind in all your games of chance?

I am willing to meet people and show myself. I don't care about this site. Pick a place and time in Vegas for example and lets meet and talk and see what everyone is about.
OnceDear
Administrator
OnceDear
Joined: Jun 1, 2014
  • Threads: 43
  • Posts: 3819
Thanks for this post from:
Sirius666
January 16th, 2019 at 1:41:42 PM permalink
Quote: Sirius666

I appreciate your response. I have seen you respond to a lot of posts, and I like them.

Good. Thanks.

Quote:

other than RFBs, rebates, commission reductions, there is no way to have long term success in any games?

Counting gives a way to get long term success. But it's hellishly hard work.
Quote:

Second, I here so much about Black jack card counting, but unless you are truly truly sharp, from what ive seen with my own eyes and read, most people fail at it, and badly.

I generally agree. Two notable members here Stabworld, and more recently Zenking, gave. is giving, it a real shot. But even these guys are far from on a get rich quick path. If there are folks here making big money just from BJ card counting, they are surely having to put long hours in and put a lot of bankroll at real risk of loss.
Quote:

Thirdly, Poker seems to require 100+ hours a week of reading and practice and 3-5 yrs before you could really try and get out there and beat people for real.

Poker is player v player and if you can get games where the other players have more money but less skill, you can probably make good profit. Not my forte.
Quote:

4th, this is not towards you specifically, but I have read a good size chunk of the posts here, and I get a very strong impression, besides people (excuse the bad word) trolling others, no one here or comes on here on a regular basis is actually very successful at any of these games. Seriously, like 99.9% of everyone fails. So who are all the people on this site that supposedly have knowledge?


I concur that the profit making, knowledgeable AP's on this, or any forum are few in number. But they have a mass of knowledge and wisdom. If you've lurked here a while, you know the real deal... and yes. You probably recognise some that are not. I assert that the strongest AP's are beating the casinos weaknesses rather than beating the games.
Quote:

I'm not trying to start anything or be argumentative, but who are all these people? I want to meet some of you and see what you all are capable of. I want to know how much you guys are ahead or behind in all your games of chance?

Maybe if you keep within the rules here and stay open minded, some of the Vegas members will reach out to you. However, I doubt your prowess at baccarat will win you any special kudos ( just telling it as I see it )
Some members have a 'spring fling' get together. I'm sure you'd enjoy it. Sadly I'm too far away for this year.

If you are enjoying the game, you're already winning.
Sirius666
Sirius666
Joined: Jan 14, 2019
  • Threads: 2
  • Posts: 11
January 16th, 2019 at 1:42:00 PM permalink
I just wanted to say thank you very much for taking the time to answer the previous post. I would like to get a sense of the back of everyone's baseball card.

So thats the cute and clever way of putting things. Very administrator like of course, but thats fine too. Its funny. I figured i'd get hit with that but its still funny.

Answer the other questions then?

Since blackjack is your game, then How much have you made and lost in Black jack in your career / free time? How far are you ahead or behind?

Since I'm not an AP, and even if i was, there is no such thing as an AP, so whatever ever the luck factor is, I'm up 182k and change over 5 yrs. Legit

Playing slots, often giving money to family to enjoy, and including tips, I'm down about $8500 over 20+ years. about 5k is all my own but about 3k is family, and $500 in tips for sure. could be as much as 9k but not worse than that at all.

Keno: up $1200. Use the mystic method the most, but its just for fun and got some good hits on four card.

Video poker: down less than $200. Don't play it much at all, unless bored hanging out with F&F waiting for a drink looking to switch things up a bit

Craps: never ever play it. Just don't like it.

Black Jack: Down about $700 over 20+ years, and thats a game I don't like,

Poker: Down maybe $100 b/c its another game I just don't play

3 card poker: Down $50 bucks at the most, b/c I only play it with friends and not by myself b/c I don't like it.

So WHERE DO YOU stand OnceDear? I am being 100% straight with you. Do it with me. This has nothing to do with who's better or worse or luckier or w/e. I want to know about all the people who come to this forum, b/c we all know other than 888, WoV / WoO is by far the best, and with all the stats out there, that means 99.9% OF EVERYONE HERE IS A LOSER, because no one can win in the long run right?

Show me the back of your baseball card man. Until then, I want to genuinely say thank you for your time and I do honestly appreciate yours and anyone thoughtful posts. all the best to you and yours.

P.S. I'm looking to branch out using my windfall and truly learn BJ and poker b/c like i said, I'm not going back to a 9-5 no matter what. I plan on dramatically reducing my time at the BAC tables and online to learn to more how to improve at the concepts of RFB commission reductions & rebates (which I have purposely and apparently stupidly avoided), but more so to see which game between BJ and Poker suits my brain and abilities, b/c even I know Bac is super simple.

P.P.S Thanks again and all the best until next time, and again I apologize if anything tone wise in my posts came out wrong. Peace out.
OnceDear
Administrator
OnceDear
Joined: Jun 1, 2014
  • Threads: 43
  • Posts: 3819
January 16th, 2019 at 1:53:15 PM permalink
Quote: Sirius666


So WHERE DO YOU stand OnceDear? I am being 100% straight with you. Do it with me. This has nothing to do with who's better or worse or luckier or w/e. I want to know about all the people who come to this forum, b/c we all know other than 888, WoV / WoO is by far the best, and with all the stats out there, that means 99.9% OF EVERYONE HERE IS A LOSER, because no one can win in the long run right?

Come on Once Dear? Show me the back of your baseball card man.



Maybe you clicked my links in mid edit. So I'll give you the tldr....

Jan 2014 invested £100 in online BJ. Won and cashed out >£6000 on day one.
proceeded to lose back at steady rate till I had just about £1200.
Did some aggressive wagering and some bonus exploits and won my way up to over £18,000.
Got banned from certain places/stuff and recreationally lost my way down to about £700.
Exploited some tasty exploits and worked back up to currently in pocket by just shy of £5,000
That's all from my initial £100 investment.

Revisit the links which are now correct.
Here's a good snapshot of my wins and losses
https://wizardofvegas.com/member/oncedear/blog/#post1752

And I'm a financially comfortable retiree playing recreationally at low stakes. Most of my play was/is at no advantage.
Incidentally. Unlike most players here, I see entertainment value in progressive wagering and if I have an online balance of say £900, You're darn tootin' that I'd try to marty my way up to 1000 before bedtime. Most times it works :o)

My bankroll is allowed to ebb and flow into a dedicated bank account. I log every buy in and cash out. My wagering is not subject to any tax.

Oh yes..... and I used to be able to keep a running total of all 'action' I'd placed. I cannot keep that record with my current casinos, but total since 2014 is in the ballpark £5m to £7m
so I should have lost about £30k of that at 0.5% so being up about £5k is not really remarkable.
Last edited by: OnceDear on Jan 16, 2019
If you are enjoying the game, you're already winning.
mamat
mamat
Joined: Jul 13, 2015
  • Threads: 3
  • Posts: 493
Thanks for this post from:
OnceDearbeachbumbabs
January 16th, 2019 at 2:11:11 PM permalink
Quote: OnceDear

I assert that the strongest AP's are beating the casinos weaknesses rather than beating the games.

(1) Some APs are mostly front-end players (beating the casino games).
(1a) Some beat "house" games (where the profits come from the casinos)
(1b) Or beat other players (e.g. poker)

(2) Other APs are mostly back-end players (living off casino marketing & "player retention" funds)
(2a) They might beat the casino games (10-40% of profit), but back-end money is the majority (60-90%).
(2b) Or they might lose on casino games (-10% to -30% loss), with back-end (110-130%)

Perhaps 95% of the gamblers who make money...make less than minimum wage after expenses.
Grinders. People making a little extra money (like Uber and Lyft drivers). People who want a little of the "good life"...so spend profits on drugs, women, and good food...so their bankroll stays the same year in, year out.

Really gifted, talented players can make $100K-200K in their first year, starting from $1,000 (or less).
Some have done the online poker challenges (Start with $0, and turn it into $10K-20K playing free games).
Others start by finding chips on casino floor and leftover slot tickets, and playing low-budget slots.

I was really clueless when I started. First year I tried playing full-time, I only made $14,000 (before expenses & tax).
I don't play much now. In 2018, just $6,200 profit, and not filing taxes as a "professional gambler" anymore.

So general advice is HAVE FUN! If you make a profit, cool.

Very difficult to consistently make $200/hr/person, 40 hrs/wk/person (pre-tax) on house games (unless you make a team which has lower-paid scouts & players), so gamblers who make more money usually move to
(3) Poker
(4) Sports
(5) Horses
(6) Stock market
(7) Real estate
(8) Starting businesses

Many of the most profitable APs are part-timers. Some of them have full-time jobs or businesses. Others are retired. The time management, money management, and people skills (e.g. employees, allies, and competitors) helpful for high profits, also are useful in regular jobs and entrepreneurship. Some professional teams issue each other tax forms, take detailed records of machine numbers for every slot machine they play, and are full-on business enterprises.

Full-time gamblers who are very good tend to move on to better pastures (unless they are poker players). When their bankrolls grow, the money they make from stocks, real estate, and businesses overshadows what they could make gambling. If an opportunity arises where they can make $500-2,000+/yr, they might start playing until that opportunity disappears.

Just have a good time. Don't get thrown out of too many casinos.
Last edited by: mamat on Jan 16, 2019
beachbumbabs
Administrator
beachbumbabs
Joined: May 21, 2013
  • Threads: 96
  • Posts: 13113
Thanks for this post from:
OnceDear
January 16th, 2019 at 2:15:22 PM permalink
Baccarat is not an AP friendly game. The closest anyone has come to AP ing (that I've heard) it are shuffle trackers and edge sorters, both of which need specific circumstances and careful setup to pay at an advantage. As casinos have learned from past practice, both are largely countermanded.

Baccarat sidebets are sometimes vulnerable to counting. Also some progressive sidebets become AP if they're high enough.

But there is no money-management plan or pattern identification or bet progression or counting technique that will beat the basic game over time. You have to find a vulnerability in how the game is shuffled or dealt, or cards marked, or other illegal or semi-legal ways to get an edge. Semi-legal in the sense of casinos will throw you out for it, even if they can't have you arrested.

If you're winning, great. You're on the plus side of variance. It won't last.

Most of the other games you mentioned might have an edge. Depends on a lot of things. Exception is craps with fair dice. There is no combination of bets, bet progression, or repeatable streak to live craps. Maybe you can find an ecraps table malfunctioning.

The rest of the games, there are ways. It should be obvious if you've read so much of the archives, that sharing those ways on a public board is highly discouraged among the regulars. To discuss it is to expose it to the casinos or distributors, who will plug that leak if they find out about it. That's how APs make their money, by seeing around corners, finding a vulnerability, bad procedures, unintended consequences, whatever.

They don't give that stuff away. Fresh ideas on how to beat games are constantly being discovered and practiced and shut off. So I don't think you're going to get any just asking for them here. But there are people reading this who tend to hire and train good candidates. That'd be your best bet, to watch your PM's for people suggesting a meet. And in the mean time, talk like someone worth recruiting.

Feedback - no one has said the slightest trolling thing to you. You might back off that insinuation a notch.

And, if you've already found 888, you should read all of Eliot Richardson's archives there, as well as the discussions here.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
OnceDear
Administrator
OnceDear
Joined: Jun 1, 2014
  • Threads: 43
  • Posts: 3819
January 16th, 2019 at 2:36:44 PM permalink
Quote: mamat

Perhaps 95% of the gamblers who make money...make less than minimum wage after expenses.
Grinders. People making a little extra money (like Uber and Lyft drivers). People who want a little of the "good life"...so spend profits on drugs, women, and good food...so their bankroll stays the same year in, year out.

Really gifted, talented players can make $100K-200K in their first year, starting from $1,000 (or less).
Some have done the online poker challenges (Start with $0, and turn it into $10K-20K playing free games).
Way better than me. First year I tried playing full-time, I only made $14,000 (before expenses & tax).

So general advice is HAVE FUN! If you make a profit, cool.

Very difficult to consistently make $200/hr/person, 40 hrs/wk/person (pre-tax) on house games (unless you make a team which has lower-paid scouts & players), so gamblers who make more money usually move to
(3) Poker
(4) Sports
(5) Horses
(6) Stock market
(7) Real estate
(8) Starting businesses

Many of the most profitable APs are part-timers. Some of them have full-time jobs or businesses. Others are retired. The time management, money management, and people skills (e.g. employees, allies, and competitors) helpful for high profits, also are useful in regular jobs and entrepreneurship.

Full-time gamblers who are very good tend to move on to better pastures (unless they are poker players). When their bankrolls grow, the money they make from stocks, real estate, and businesses overshadows what they could make gambling. If an opportunity arises where they can make $500-2,000+/yr, they might start playing until that opportunity disappears.

Just have a good time. Don't get thrown out of too many casinos.


Seconded.
I p155 about, partly playing loss making games at house edge of 0.3% and £1 per round and partly playing profitable promos at 99% player edge and up to £!00 per round ( sadly capped profits ) I enjoy both kinds of play. Some days it's just a rather spun out coin toss to turn 50 into either 0 or 100 and somedays it's just wagering through 100 of completely free play in the hope of cashing out 100. It's all fun and any exploits or freebies make it more so. Losing is fun too!
But then, I make a far greater advantage from running my own business and make far, far greater wagers on stocks and shares. Even there, careful use of stock options made me enough to retire early and comfortably.
Kudos to the OP if he made ~$200k playing baccarat. It's a rather meaningless stat unless he reveals what his total 'at risk' bankroll was. E.g anyone could easily walk into a game and marty 100,000 into 200,000 even if most of the 100,000 was just held back in reserve at the other end of an atm.
If you are enjoying the game, you're already winning.

  • Jump to: