Pro Video Poker

Quote: CardDolphin

I'll try to take one at a time, let me assume the royal is 1 in 4k so i spin 10k times i have a 92% chance of hitting it at least once and let us assume a $5k payout...,I will only lose $100 on average but will have over 90 percent chance of winning $5,000?

Your numbers are way off. Its more like 1 in 40,000 not 4,000 so 10,000 spins gives you about 25% chance of hitting a royal.
Your long term loss will be about $100 on a 99% game, but that figure already includes the possibility of you hitting the Royal.
If you are serious, forget everything you think you know and start over. Go back and read Dancers book as if you are reading about VP for the first time.
Your problem isn't what you don't know. Its that most of what you know is wrong or misunderstood.

Get off my back chief, im asking, i never said i was AP or knew everything or already did this or that , i was off by 1 zero

Quote: CardDolphin

I'll try to take one at a time, let me assume the royal is 1 in 4k so i spin 10k times i have a 92% chance of hitting it at least once and let us assume a $5k payout...,I will only lose $100 on average but will have over 90 percent chance of winning $5,000?

No,
let us start with Jacks or Better 9/6

what you propose does not exist and VP is a game that uses a strategy to play
your example has No strategy, so, no math

the royal is 1 in 40,391 so you play 10k times and have about a 22% chance of hitting it at least once and let us assume a $4k royal payout...
you can do the math on that...

"I will only lose $X on average "
there IS NO AVERAGE loss when you play 10k hands 1 time.
one can get an 'average loss per hand played, but that is different.

"but will have over X percent chance of winning $4,000?

this is EASILY calculated using existing VP software or computer programs/code to do it for you.
It is also easily simulated for those that want a double-check method.

for the JOB 9/6 example
one has a 69.91% chance of showing a NET LOSS
and
(edit) to win at least $4k is about 0.0460786 or 1 in 21.7

we could 'do the math' and get the average LOSS given a LOSS
and/or the average win given a win
but that is more than the basics here

the distribution of the game AFTER 10k hands is nothing close to a normal distribution
so ev and variance is meaningless
as can be seen in the distribution (not shown)

calculating and/or simulation become more valuable.

this should point to your next question

Quote: CardDolphin

i was off by 1 zero

I dont know what to say other than... LOL.

Quote: CardDolphin

Get off my back chief, im asking, i never said i was AP or knew everything or already did this or that , i was off by 1 zero

This might be my favorite post of all time on this forum.

Quote: CardDolphin

Get off my back chief, im asking, i never said i was AP or knew everything or already did this or that , i was off by 1 zero

Priceless. And a perfect new signature line.

Let's go to my next question. I do have the book video poker for the intelligent beginner and a while I have not read all of it I did skim the part where he talks about the percentage chance of being ahead or behind. It seems to me that the software in a video poker for winnerd itt does not calculate what percentage chance you will be ahead at "some point" but rather tells you what percentage chance you will be x amount of ahead after "x hands". My question is is there anything out there that tells you will you be so much ahead " at any point"? Or are they one in the same

Quote: CardDolphin

I'll try to take one at a time, let me assume the royal is 1 in 4k so i spin 10k times i have a 92% chance of hitting it at least once and let us assume a $5k payout...,I will only lose $100 on average but will have over 90 percent chance of winning $5,000?

No, it doesn't work that way.

Hitting any royal, assuming you use perfect strategy and no wilds, is about 1 in 42,000 hands, not 1 in 4000.

Edit: reading on, I see I'm way behind, here. I'll shut up now...

Quote: CardDolphin

Let's go to my next question. I do have the book video poker for the intelligent beginner and a while I have not read all of it I did skim the part where he talks about the percentage chance of being ahead or behind. It seems to me that the software in a video poker for winnerd itt does not calculate what percentage chance you will be ahead at "some point" but rather tells you what percentage chance you will be x amount of ahead after "x hands". My question is is there anything out there that tells you will you be so much ahead " at any point"? Or are they one in the same

If you'd have followed my advice, you'd be 100% ahead of the game at this point.

Or was it 10% ahead? No biggie. Its only one zero.

If you had followed his advice you’d have backed off. Chief.

Quote: CardDolphin

Get off my back chief, im asking, i never said i was AP or knew everything or already did this or that , i was off by 1 zero

Post of the Year candidate

Quote: CardDolphin

Let's go to my next question. I do have the book video poker for the intelligent beginner and a while I have not read all of it I did skim the part where he talks about the percentage chance of being ahead or behind. It seems to me that the software in a video poker for winnerd itt does not calculate what percentage chance you will be ahead at "some point" but rather tells you what percentage chance you will be x amount of ahead after "x hands". My question is is there anything out there that tells you will you be so much ahead " at any point"? Or are they one in the same

I would highly recommend this book. All the answers you seek are in it.

https://www.amazon.com/Undeniable-Truth-About-Video-Poker/dp/089650977X

Quote: mcallister3200

If you had followed his advice you’d have backed off. Chief.

No,,, he'd be at the $1 Store picking up a ribeye😃


















Sorry, couldn't help myself.