James Holzhauer on Jeopardy

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May 24th, 2019 at 6:53:53 AM permalink

I Guess, but wagering only 10k IMO is the reason why people are not going to beat James. If everyone makes wagers like that they are going to be hoping he screws up and not that they beat him. I would think it should be this.

Nate $25,800 + $10,000 = $35,800
James $31,200 + $20,908 = $52,108

James needs to make sure a nate double doesnt beat him so 20401 should be James wager, he made it 20908 so that his total would be a number he likes. Ok whatever.

Nate knows that James is going to wager at least 20401 so James is either going to get it right and Nate can't win or he gets it wrong and James drops to $10799.

So with a 10k wager nate either gets 15800 or 35800. If he is maximizing his winnings he should have wagered $15000 for a $1 at $10800 or a big win at $40800. So basically he left 5k on the table.

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GWAE

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May 24th, 2019 at 6:57:29 AM permalink

on days like today when I won't be home to watch the show I look at the results in the morning by going here.
https://thejeopardyfan.com/2019/05/final-jeopardy-5-24-2019.html

Today it says.
Looking to find out who won Jeopardy! today? Tonight’s results will be posted once the show airs!

hmmmmmm.... first time it has said that and normally I look around 7am and now it is 10am. Could today be the day and they don't want to spoil it?

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Gabes22

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May 24th, 2019 at 7:29:38 AM permalink

IIRC when Ken Jennings lost it was out in the public domain a while before it aired. I think it is just as likely James has a record day

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charliepatrick

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May 24th, 2019 at 9:11:48 AM permalink

Quote: GWAE
....going here.... https://thejeopardyfan.com/2019/05/final-jeopardy-5-24-2019.html ....Tonight’s results will be posted once the show airs!...

They've got the result there now. I noticed they posted the video on dailymotion a little late today (it's there now).

It was interesting in answering "Steve Young used his left hand to toss 6 TD passes in this team's 1995 Super Bowl rout of the Chargers" James' reply was "First bet I ever lost, who are the

49ers

."

Google doesn't find today's game, so here is a link ( https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x798a5z )

GWAE

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May 24th, 2019 at 9:34:46 AM permalink

Quote: charliepatrick
They've got the result there now. I noticed they posted the video on dailymotion a little late today (it's there now).

It was interesting in answering "Steve Young used his left hand to toss 6 TD passes in this team's 1995 Super Bowl rout of the Chargers" James' reply was "First bet I ever lost, who are the
49ers
."

Google doesn't find today's game, so here is a link ( https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x798a5z )

Was his final jeopardy answer a joke? I didnt watch it just saw the results

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GWAE

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May 24th, 2019 at 9:38:19 AM permalink

that is a crazy high total for only getting 1 DJ

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charliepatrick

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May 24th, 2019 at 9:51:02 AM permalink

Quote: GWAE
that is a crazy high total for only getting 1 DJ

From the jeopardyfan site

Quote:
$24,600 is a record score after the Jeopardy! round; the previous record is $22,012, set during James’ 7th game.

TDVegas

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May 24th, 2019 at 10:04:04 AM permalink

Nate played it right. The opponents lined up to play him have to rethink their own strategy based on how James plays. It's going to take a miracle to beat him. Nate would have pulled it off with two true daily doubles. He went for it on the first one but not the second. I know, risky as hell....but whether I lose in the red or lose by $5,000...still a loss.

Kudos to this opponent...hopefully his future competitors saw this episode. If anything, runaway games are boring.

TDVegas

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May 24th, 2019 at 7:05:10 PM permalink

2 dud opponents today.

EdCollins

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May 24th, 2019 at 8:24:29 PM permalink

Here's a recap of his 27 wins:

GWAE

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May 24th, 2019 at 8:25:43 PM permalink

Is his average more than the highest win prior to him?

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EdCollins

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May 24th, 2019 at 8:36:36 PM permalink

Quote: GWAE
Is his average more than the highest win prior to him?

It was for awhile but not anymore. As you can see, the last several games dropped his average to below $77,000.

TDVegas

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May 24th, 2019 at 8:41:59 PM permalink

I think half his wins (14 of 27) broke the old highest win total. Just an amazing, indestructible run.

Today's opponents looked bad....which just shows you the level he is playing at. All these contestants go thru a fairly difficult pre approval process, and he makes them look like they don't belong on stage.

9 of every 10 games are a runaway (89%)

He's answering questions correctly at a 97% clip. Astonishing. Human Wikipedia.

Last edited by: TDVegas on May 24, 2019

Nathan

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May 25th, 2019 at 5:26:09 AM permalink

I won't be surprised if there become conspiracies that someone from Jeopardy Team has been secretly feeding James the right answers to boost their ratings or that James himself had a friend or some feeding him the right answers and they can split the money. Stuff like this happened before.

In both The Hunger Games and in gambling, may the odds be ever in your favor. :D "Man Babes" #AxelFabulous "Olive oil is processed but it only has one ingredient, olive oil."-Even Bob, March 27/28th. :D The 2 year war is over! Woo-hoo! :D I sometimes speak in metaphors. ;) Remember this. ;) Crack the code. :D 8.9.13.25.14.1.13.5.9.19.14.1.20.8.1.14! :D "For about the 4096th time, let me offer a radical idea to those of you who don't like Nathan -- block her and don't visit Nathan's Corner. What is so complicated about it?" Wizard, August 21st. :D

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May 25th, 2019 at 5:35:57 AM permalink

Quote: Nathan
I won't be surprised if there become conspiracies that someone from Jeopardy Team has been secretly feeding James the right answers to boost their ratings or that James himself had a friend or some feeding him the right answers and they can split the money. Stuff like this happened before.

Dont clutter our jeopardy thread with nonsense. Go back to the corner.

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TDVegas

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May 25th, 2019 at 8:30:28 AM permalink

Quote: Nathan
I won't be surprised if there become conspiracies that someone from Jeopardy Team has been secretly feeding James the right answers to boost their ratings or that James himself had a friend or some feeding him the right answers and they can split the money. Stuff like this happened before.

No chance. Just because it happened before is no reason to suggest something like that will happen here. The Black Sox scandal happened before too...doesn't mean we should speculate that it's going to happen again.

There was never any talk of that during Ken Jennings run.

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May 25th, 2019 at 8:27:30 PM permalink

Quote: CrystalMath
I think the correct wager is anything <15,000. His only chance at winning is if James answers wrong, but a wager under 15k still gives him the win even if they both miss the answer.

James must wager at least $20,401. If he answers incorrectly, he is left with $10,799.

Nate goes in with $25,800, so he can wager $15,000 to secure first place if they both answer wrong.

I hope you guys are happy, this image took me hours to put together.

As a reminder, James' score was $31,200 and Nate's was $25,800. The difference is $5,400

Here are some things this chart shows.

If James wagers $28,800 or more and is correct, he wins.
If James wagers between $5,400 and $25,800, then if Nate wagers within $5400 of Jame's wager, then the only way James can lose if he is wrong AND Nate is correct.
If Nate wagers more than $5,400 above James' wager, then Nate wins if he is correct.

Basically, Nate needs to ask himself, if James is wrong, will I be right or wrong? If he thinks right, then wager big, if wrong, then wager small. Of course, Nate won't know for sure. Thus, the ultimate strategy is to randomize -- James between $0 and $28,800 and Nate between $0 and $25,800.

Give the high probability of correct answers, James should have a high probability of wagering high, over $20,400*. Nate should be more likely to wager low and hope James is wrong.

As we all know, the actual wagers were James $20,908 and Nate $10,000. This put Nate in a position of needing James to be wrong to win. Both were right, so James won.

* Corrected

Last edited by: Wizard on Jun 4, 2019

"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)

Commish

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May 25th, 2019 at 8:38:37 PM permalink

James has changed this game forever. If you have a 90% chance of getting the correct answer contestants will realize that they need to go all in. The game will be forever changed, even after James is gone.

billryan

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May 25th, 2019 at 8:42:31 PM permalink

He broke the game. It's toast.
I finally watched five minutes of it. The guy rubs me the wrong way. I hope he breaks all the records everywhere, but I won't be watching.

The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened

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May 25th, 2019 at 9:20:25 PM permalink

I heard they already changed the rules to let new players practice with the clicker before the show. This is very valuable, as experienced players get a feeling clicking first, without being too early.

In my opinion, they should do away with the importance of the clicker by making the questions harder. Then again, that might lose the audience.

I would not be surprised if the show doesn't survive more than a year after Alex's departure.

"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)

michael99000

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May 26th, 2019 at 12:12:14 AM permalink

Quote: Wizard
I hope you guys are happy, this image took me hours to put together.

As a reminder, James' score was $31,200 and Nate's was $25,800. The difference is $5,400

Here are some things this chart shows.

If James wagers $28,800 or more and is correct, he wins.
.

I don’t understand that last sentence. Wouldn’t James only need to end up at $1 more than $25,800 x 2 , in order to guarantee he wins if he’s correct ?

That would mean the last sentence should say if James wagers $20,401 and is correct , he wins.

Maybe I’m missing something.

RS

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May 26th, 2019 at 12:45:57 AM permalink

Quote: Wizard
I heard they already changed the rules to let new players practice with the clicker before the show. This is very valuable, as experienced players get a feeling clicking first, without being too early.

In my opinion, they should do away with the importance of the clicker by making the questions harder. Then again, that might lose the audience.

I would not be surprised if the show doesn't survive more than a year after Alex's departure.

Thinking about it some, I don't really like the first-to-click-in system. After all, the game (IMO) is about knowing trivia and shouldn't be about some secondary and un-related skill. Given that it appears most contestants know most answers, it seems it's almost 100% based on clicker speed. That shouldn't take anything away from James, though, because he really does know his s***. Check out the episode of him on "Monster Cash Fast Money" or whatever that other show was that he was on...he answered like 12 questions correctly in 60 seconds and absolutely destroyed "The Beast" dude.

Unfortunately, it doesn't seem like there's a way to make it interesting for the audience (EG: Keep questions not-impossible, even though they're pretty much all impossible for me), remove the physical skill element of button clicking, and having it run in a timely manner. Final Jeopardy is too slow to do for all questions, multiple choice makes it too easy.

Maybe make it so they can buzz in anytime, even before question is fully asked (technically, answer is fully given by Trebek, but w/e). Once they buzz in, question gets removed so they can't buzz in ASAP then read the question and then answer. Perhaps make the loss be worth 2x the profit. So you either win $600 or lose $1,200.

Aussie

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May 26th, 2019 at 3:06:11 AM permalink

It will be interesting to see how he goes against Jennings & Rutter when the inevitable tournament takes place. His tactics won’t be as effective given that everyone will know they need to play the same way.

avianrandy

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May 26th, 2019 at 3:08:24 AM permalink

The name of that other show is called The Chase. Is it any wonder Brooke Burns(the host) used to be on Baywatch? or as some called it Babewatch lol

SkittleCar1

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May 26th, 2019 at 4:57:46 AM permalink

Quote: Wizard

I would not be surprised if the show doesn't survive more than a year after Alex's departure.

I thought the same thing when Drew Carey took over The Price is Right. Here it is, over a decade later, and it seems a younger fan base and demographic has taken over.

I've seen rumors of Ken Jennings taking over. I don't see that happening. He doesnt have any TV experience other than being on Jeopardy. My choice would be Dan Patrick. He's done Sports Jeopardy and he speaks well.

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May 26th, 2019 at 6:04:07 AM permalink

Quote: michael99000
That would mean the last sentence should say if James wagers $20,401 and is correct , he wins.

You're right, thanks. That was a typo on my part.

"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)

Wizard
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May 26th, 2019 at 6:09:18 AM permalink

Quote: RS
Maybe make it so they can buzz in anytime, even before question is fully asked (technically, answer is fully given by Trebek, but w/e). Once they buzz in, question gets removed so they can't buzz in ASAP then read the question and then answer. Perhaps make the loss be worth 2x the profit. So you either win $600 or lose $1,200.

Unless the make they questions significantly more difficult, every player would buzz in at the earliest chance, even before the question was seen/heard. However, I like the idea of losing more than the wager if you're wrong.

I had a Jeopardy cartridge for my Nintendo and I would always press the button without even seeing the question, as the questions were pretty easy, for me at least.

"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)

RonC

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May 26th, 2019 at 6:27:22 AM permalink

Quote: Wizard
I would not be surprised if the show doesn't survive more than a year after Alex's departure.

From March, 1964 until today, the show has existed in some form for all but 8 years. It wasn't always daily.

People enjoy trivia. I enjoy knowing answers the contestants don't get right, but that isn't happening a lot right now.

I would predict that the show will survive in some format once Alex departs.

There may be another period of changes (or maybe even some time off the air) in how often it is on or on how it is aired...but it was here before Alex...

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May 26th, 2019 at 8:24:30 AM permalink

Quote: Wizard
Unless the make they questions significantly more difficult, every player would buzz in at the earliest chance, even before the question was seen/heard. However, I like the idea of losing more than the wager if you're wrong.

I had a Jeopardy cartridge for my Nintendo and I would always press the button without even seeing the question, as the questions were pretty easy, for me at least.

"From the premiere of the original Jeopardy! until the end of the first season of the current syndicated series, contestants were allowed to ring in as soon as the clue was revealed. Since September 1985, contestants are required to wait until the clue is read before ringing in. To accommodate the rule change, lights were added to the game board (unseen by home viewers) to signify when it is permissible for contestants to signal; attempting to signal before the light goes on locks the contestant out for half of a second. The change was made to allow the home audience to play along with the show more easily and to keep an extremely fast contestant from potentially dominating the game. In pre-1985 episodes, a buzzer would sound when a contestant signaled; according to Trebek, the buzzer was eliminated because it was "distracting to the viewers" and sometimes presented a problem when contestants rang in while Trebek was still reading the clue."

EdCollins

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May 27th, 2019 at 7:39:21 PM permalink

Wow. Just wow.

The scores going into tonight's Final Jeopardy Round:

James: $72,022
Monica: $6,600
Scott: $6,200

James had more than 5.5 times the amount of Monica and Scott combined!

Rigondeaux

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May 27th, 2019 at 8:17:34 PM permalink

I agree that buzzer speed/timing is too important. No idea how to remedy it.

I just remembered this. When I was a kid, I didn't realize that most of the answers had clues in them and I thought my parents were geniuses for knowing all that stuff of the tops of their heads

TDVegas

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May 27th, 2019 at 8:51:17 PM permalink

No question his ability to be a split second ahead of his opponents with the buzzer is playing a role. Generally, a solid player gets a feel for buzzing quicker as the game develops...but it may take some time. These opponents don't have the option for a learning curve as James has already closed out the game in the first round.

Blow out today..in every sense.

EdCollins

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May 27th, 2019 at 9:12:54 PM permalink

Holzhauer is getting stronger as time goes on.

His average daily win over his first 14 games was $75,825.
His average daily win over his most recent 14 games is $81,000.

His average daily win over his first ten games was $69,779.
His average daily win over his most recent ten games is $86,595.

ams288

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May 28th, 2019 at 4:18:33 AM permalink

Anyone know when this season ends and the summer break begins?

I feel like if he’s still around when the new season starts in the fall the competition will be tougher because the new contestants will have had more time to study his strategy.

Ding Dong the Witch is Dead

EdCollins

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May 28th, 2019 at 5:47:30 AM permalink

Quote: ams288
Anyone know when this season ends and the summer break begins?

Yes, I think so. The current season is Season 35, Week 38. It should end on Friday, July 29th. When this current week began (yesterday), there were a full nine weeks left to go in this season.

(I read this somewhere on thejeopardyfan website.)

ams288

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May 28th, 2019 at 6:19:03 AM permalink

Quote: EdCollins
Yes, I think so. The current season is Season 35, Week 38. It should end on Friday, July 29th. When this current week began (yesterday), there were a full nine weeks left to go in this season.

(I read this somewhere on thejeopardyfan website.)

Oh wow, I thought we were closer to the end of the season than that.

Ding Dong the Witch is Dead

GWAE

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May 28th, 2019 at 6:31:04 AM permalink

Quote: EdCollins
Yes, I think so. The current season is Season 35, Week 38. It should end on Friday, July 29th. When this current week began (yesterday), there were a full nine weeks left to go in this season.

(I read this somewhere on thejeopardyfan website.)

BBB said the same thing after her interview

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beachbumbabs

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May 28th, 2019 at 6:42:39 AM permalink

Quote: ams288
Quote: EdCollins
Yes, I think so. The current season is Season 35, Week 38. It should end on Friday, July 29th. When this current week began (yesterday), there were a full nine weeks left to go in this season.

(I read this somewhere on thejeopardyfan website.)

Oh wow, I thought we were closer to the end of the season than that.

I think we kind of are. They're done taping new shows for the season - they finished about 6 weeks ago.

However, they have some tournaments to air (at least one) in the time between now and the start of season 36, and they may have put (rumored) a couple weeks of season 36 in ahead of Alex's treatment. They changed their taping schedule in late March-early April to get some amount of shows ahead.

The people who know where things are, aren't talking about it, at least not that I've heard. If James is still on when taping resumes, he could be anywhere from win ~42 to win 62.

If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.

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May 28th, 2019 at 6:43:41 AM permalink

Quote: ams288
Oh wow, I thought we were closer to the end of the season than that.

For all I know, the current season still might include a Senior's Tournament, or a Doctor's Tournament, or a Cashier's Tournament, or a Farmer's Tournament, or some other silly tournament.

SkittleCar1

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May 28th, 2019 at 8:42:15 AM permalink

Quote: EdCollins
For all I know, the current season still might include a Senior's Tournament, or a Doctor's Tournament, or a Cashier's Tournament, or a Farmer's Tournament, or some other silly tournament.

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May 28th, 2019 at 10:29:57 AM permalink

Quote: EdCollins
For all I know, the current season still might include a Senior's Tournament, or a Doctor's Tournament, or a Cashier's Tournament, or a Farmer's Tournament, or some other silly tournament.

maybe a leading cashier from walgreens vs cvs vs rite aid

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May 28th, 2019 at 12:37:00 PM permalink

There was an interview of Ken Jennings on Good Morning America today. Nothing shocking in anything he said. He was asked why James' average win per show is so much higher than Ken's. His answer was, and I'm paraphrasing, that James' goal was likely to maximize the total amount during his run, while Ken wanted to maximize the length of his run. He was also asked about a duel of between the two. Ken said that at his prime he would have had a better chance, but even at his age now he would still be competitive and it would likely come down to who found the Daily Doubles.

"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)

Ayecarumba

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May 28th, 2019 at 12:52:53 PM permalink

Suppose James' opponents colluded to accomplish three things:
1) Select clues and provide answers as slowly as possible in order to leave some clues on the board unanswered.
2) Search for Daily Doubles rather than clearing columns methodically.
3) One player will "kamikaze" James by buzzing in as quickly as possible on every clue, regardless of whether they know the correct response or not in an effort to buy the other some time, and throw off James' buzzer rhythm.

Would the double team have a chance?

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May 28th, 2019 at 1:03:03 PM permalink

No, because I don't think any of these three things will work at all.

1) If this item is done, at most just a few clues would remain unanswered, most likely the smaller value clues. What's left would be insignificant.

2) Players already do their best searching for Daily Doubles as it is now. (The best way to search for them is to answer questions correctly.) Other than not selecting any further questions in a category in which the first DD has been revealed, I don't think you can improve your odds much at all, if any, by "actively searching" for them.

3) Most players are already trying to buzz in quickly as possible, as soon as they are given the light to go ahead and do so. Assuming an opponent CAN and does buzz in first, with an incorrect answer, James has just as much of a chance to buzz in before the other opponent, after the first person answers incorrectly.

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May 28th, 2019 at 1:43:08 PM permalink

I do question Jennings suggestion that he wanted more wins verses more money. The best way to ensure longevity is to make each game a runaway. James is running away in 9 of 10 games.

I see absolutely nothing that can stop him. It's going to take a miracle combination of missing the daily doubles, answering them incorrectly or simply not having double cash over his opponent and getting stumped in final jeopardy. Plus you're going to need an opponent that is darn strong.

Last 2 sessions the opponents have been on the weaker side.

Go down swinging. You're not going to beat him wagering $2,000 on a DD when you have 7,000 banked. Gonna have to push it all out there.

At worst, if James gets the first DD wrong....he's even with his opponents.

TDVegas