SkittleCar1
SkittleCar1
  • Threads: 14
  • Posts: 253
Joined: Feb 7, 2014
June 3rd, 2019 at 4:22:43 AM permalink
I was hoping this was a leak to when he finally loses in a few weeks. But I checked today's contestant schedule, and the ones from the clip are on today. Damn.
Wiggins
Wiggins
  • Threads: 2
  • Posts: 78
Joined: Mar 26, 2015
Thanked by
beachbumbabstringlomane
June 3rd, 2019 at 5:15:55 AM permalink
I'm a member of a private torrent site where the Monday Jeopardy episodes are consistently released the Friday before. It has something to do with the episodes being sent out in advance to local affiliates without any encryption, making it easy for the video files to fall into the wrong hands. As far as I know there was no special "leak."
WatchMeWin
WatchMeWin
  • Threads: 105
  • Posts: 1636
Joined: May 20, 2011
June 3rd, 2019 at 7:07:31 AM permalink
Regardless of his loss, the guy is absolutely amazing! Not to give excuses for him, because Jen Jennings did it, but the stamina that is needed in filming 3 shows a day (I believe) can be overwhelming. Also, a huge factor is the timing with the buzzer. Even if you know all of the answers, but can get the buzzer timing down, you can't accumulate dollars.

I would love to see Ken Jennings and James in a showdown where there is no buzzer..... somehow they accumulate points on how much they know and how quickly they answer the questions.
'Winners hit n run... Losers stick around'
MDawg
MDawg
  • Threads: 40
  • Posts: 7609
Joined: Sep 27, 2018
June 3rd, 2019 at 7:40:21 AM permalink
I don't know what shows you have been watching, but a large part of the reason James has been winning IS his skill with the buzzer.
"James Holzhauer reveals extremely detailed method for mastering the art of 'Jeopardy!' buzzing"
https://ftw.usatoday.com/2019/05/jeopardy-james-holzhauer-buzzing-in-strategy

Your second paragraph proposing that "somehow they accumulate points on how much they know and how quickly they answer the questions" makes zero sense...the buzzer IS the way to gauge how quickly they answer the questions!

For example with the LSAT, used to assess aptitude of incoming law school students, most any intelligent college graduate could get all of the puzzle/logic/game/analogy type answers right given a few days to look it over, but it's not about getting the answers right, it's about getting the answers right in the allotted TIME.
I tell you itís wonderful to be here, man. I donít give a damn who wins or loses. Itís just wonderful to be here with you people. https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
TDVegas
TDVegas
  • Threads: 3
  • Posts: 1186
Joined: Oct 30, 2018
June 3rd, 2019 at 7:55:38 AM permalink
Quote: Wiggins

I'm a member of a private torrent site where the Monday Jeopardy episodes are consistently released the Friday before. It has something to do with the episodes being sent out in advance to local affiliates without any encryption, making it easy for the video files to fall into the wrong hands. As far as I know there was no special "leak."


If it was that easy for this to leak out....essentially an employee of an affiliate deciding he was going to be funny by stealing the content and disseminating it, I assume the controls will be tightened.

Itís also a bit disheartening that major news organizations not only revealed that the leak happened but ALSO told you the result.

I get that itís news and they report it. Revealing the outcome is unprofessional.

I made a point of not reading the NY Post from 4:30pm PST to 7:30pm....because they listed the result before it aired in Vegas. Who knew their front page headline yesterday was...
ďJamesí loses on MondayĒ....?
Last edited by: TDVegas on Jun 3, 2019
GWAE
GWAE
  • Threads: 93
  • Posts: 9854
Joined: Sep 20, 2013
June 3rd, 2019 at 9:25:18 AM permalink
I have no problem with a news outlet reporting things early. Is Jeopardy on NBC in all parts of the country or does that depend on local contracts? If it is on NBC on all places then CBS, ABC, and Fox definitely want to get in early. Now should NBC report it early? Why would they spoil their own network, other than to not get left behind by the others.
Expect the worst and you will never be disappointed. I AM NOT PART OF GWAE RADIO SHOW
Gabes22
Gabes22
  • Threads: 15
  • Posts: 1427
Joined: Jul 19, 2011
June 3rd, 2019 at 9:28:05 AM permalink
Jeopardy is on ABC, at least in Chicago
A flute with no holes is not a flute, a donut with no holes is a danish
GWAE
GWAE
  • Threads: 93
  • Posts: 9854
Joined: Sep 20, 2013
June 3rd, 2019 at 9:33:36 AM permalink
Quote: Gabes22

Jeopardy is on ABC, at least in Chicago



ahh well then my argument about the network doesnt matter. I guess they sell it to individual local channels.
Expect the worst and you will never be disappointed. I AM NOT PART OF GWAE RADIO SHOW
billryan
billryan
  • Threads: 240
  • Posts: 16282
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
June 3rd, 2019 at 11:10:52 AM permalink
Quote: tringlomane

At any point in the game? That will slow the game down early on and make it more boring. Heck the game could end early even.



Not if people are aware of the consequences. Just get it right and you don't have to worry.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
WatchMeWin
WatchMeWin
  • Threads: 105
  • Posts: 1636
Joined: May 20, 2011
June 3rd, 2019 at 11:49:44 AM permalink
Quote: MDawg

I don't know what shows you have been watching, but a large part of the reason James has been winning IS his skill with the buzzer.
"James Holzhauer reveals extremely detailed method for mastering the art of 'Jeopardy!' buzzing"
https://ftw.usatoday.com/2019/05/jeopardy-james-holzhauer-buzzing-in-strategy

Your second paragraph proposing that "somehow they accumulate points on how much they know and how quickly they answer the questions" makes zero sense...the buzzer IS the way to gauge how quickly they answer the questions!

For example with the LSAT, used to assess aptitude of incoming law school students, most any intelligent college graduate could get all of the puzzle/logic/game/analogy type answers right given a few days to look it over, but it's not about getting the answers right, it's about getting the answers right in the allotted TIME.



Im aware that part of his strategy and success has been from buzzing in first. There is a clear advantage to that.... this is what I am saying that I would like to see changed in some manner. You take the good with the bad, however, Im sure within the game that he lost, he probably knew all of the answers but just wasn't in sync with the buzzer timing as well as the other contestant. But that is part of the game and it is what it is.

Ive seen many contestants who appeared to try and buzz in frantically question after question but never got a chance to answer... when they apparently knew the answers immediately. So , yes, the buzzer is a skill and it certainly an advantage to helping you score.... but it doesnt mean that the other contestants were not as quick and knowledgeable as James on any given day (and vice versa on his losing day). They should have something like on the show 'Beat Shazam', where there are multiple choice questions and the fastest time to answer correctly gets points awarded. Shazam as four multiple choice answers (that would be too easy on jeapordy....so make it 10 multiple choice answers for them to navigate through and answer correctly. Fastest time correct wins that question... Just a thought.
'Winners hit n run... Losers stick around'
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
  • Threads: 164
  • Posts: 22296
Joined: Oct 10, 2012
June 3rd, 2019 at 12:04:02 PM permalink
Quote: Wiggins

I'm a member of a private torrent site where the Monday Jeopardy episodes are consistently released the Friday before. It has something to do with the episodes being sent out in advance to local affiliates without any encryption, making it easy for the video files to fall into the wrong hands. As far as I know there was no special "leak."

I know almost nothing about Torrent stuff. You have peaked my interest. This made me think of the Game Of Thrones betting and how some people accidentally got to see the show before the lines were closed. Could this private torrent site come into play in situations like that?
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
GWAE
GWAE
  • Threads: 93
  • Posts: 9854
Joined: Sep 20, 2013
June 3rd, 2019 at 12:45:17 PM permalink
So I guess everyone knows so we can openly discuss.

He lost the only way he was going to. She got the 2 DD and bet big on the first one. She chickened out on the second one.

He also only buzzed in first on 42% instead of his normal 60+ percent.

Let's go with conspiracy theory. Jeopardy messed with his buzzer so he wouldn't be first in so that he wouldnt beat Ken. Now Ken can still be the next host.
Expect the worst and you will never be disappointed. I AM NOT PART OF GWAE RADIO SHOW
MDawg
MDawg
  • Threads: 40
  • Posts: 7609
Joined: Sep 27, 2018
June 3rd, 2019 at 1:46:04 PM permalink
Conspiracy theory: Poppycock!

Without watching the entire episode, it's hard to comment without speculating. But looking just at his low bet @ the leaked segment, the first impulse is to assume that he was unsure of the "Christopher Marlowe" answer, why else bet low? I go with the simple explanation. Maybe after the fact he'll come up with some complicated reasoning for why he bet low, but keep in mind that he's a lifetime gambler, so who knows whether he'll ever tell the truth about why he bet or how he bet. He might not want to admit that he was unsure of the answer, even if in fact he was. Or that he screwed up, and didn't "go with the odds" in choosing his wager amount.

Again, assuming he was unsure of his answer, too bad he didn't have me there to signal him lol, I know Marlowe's poetry inside out. Again, without watching the episode, I'd guess it had something to do with the Passionate Shepherd, probably his most famous poem, or maybe something to do with his famous death.

Also, in general, maybe James just didn't know the quizzed content from this episode as well as he knew the content from prior episodes. Or put another way, his challenger knew the content better. That's again the simple explanation, which is usually the correct one.


Anyway, he did well, and perhaps ushered in a new era of picking the bottom first, versus top, of the Jeopardy board answers.
Last edited by: MDawg on Jun 3, 2019
I tell you itís wonderful to be here, man. I donít give a damn who wins or loses. Itís just wonderful to be here with you people. https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
Aussie
Aussie
  • Threads: 12
  • Posts: 415
Joined: Dec 29, 2009
June 3rd, 2019 at 2:26:56 PM permalink
Not sure why there is speculation about why he bet so low in final jeopardy. Has nothing to do with whether he thought he would get it right or not. Purely about the scores of the other players.

"I knew I could only win if Emma missed Final Jeopardy, as there was no way she wouldn't bet to cover my all-in bet," Holzhauer told The Action Network Monday. "So my only concern was getting overtaken by third place, and I bet just enough to make sure of locking him out. Betting big would have looked good for the cameras, but now I turn my straight bet (Emma misses) into a parlay (Emma misses and I get it right)."


https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/03/why-james-holzhauer-bet-so-little-during-his-last-final-jeopardy.html
EdCollins
EdCollins
  • Threads: 20
  • Posts: 1739
Joined: Oct 21, 2011
Thanked by
Rigondeaux
June 3rd, 2019 at 2:32:35 PM permalink
Quote: MDawg

... why else bet low?
...Maybe after the fact he'll come up with some complicated reasoning for why he bet low...

No complicated answer needed. He didn't need to bet large. It was not necessary. His low bet in Final Jeopardy was fine.

Note that he wasn't leading this time going into Final Jeopardy.

The correct betting strategy for the person leading is to bet enough to still win if the player in Second Place bets everything they have and answers correctly. Probably the majority of every person leading going into Final Jeopardy does this. (I can't ever recall seeing anyone NOT do this.) James could safely assume the gal would do this. (And this is exactly what she did.)

Thus, he knew the only way he could win would be if the woman answered incorrectly. If he bets small, his own response, whether it was right or wrong, becomes irrelevant.

Now, assume he made a large bet. Assume he bet it all, for example. If he bet it all, NOW he could only win the game if he got the final question right AND the woman got it wrong. The addition of the extra condition makes it less probable.

As it was, since the woman answered correctly, even if James had bet it all he would still have lost. If she had answered incorrectly, James would have won, because he bet small.

Again, his final (low) bet in Final Jeopardy was more than fine.

Edit: I see Aussie beat me in the explanation by a few minutes. :(
petroglyph
petroglyph
  • Threads: 19
  • Posts: 3360
Joined: Jan 3, 2013
June 3rd, 2019 at 2:55:45 PM permalink
When is enough enough? Maybe he was just ready to do something else? He doesn't seem to have the normal worries regular people do about how to pay the rent, or necessary sundries of life . Could have just been ready to do something else ?

If someone had the intellect to win continuously from now on, would showing up for work down at the show be what you would want to do with the rest of your life? I'm sure it cuts into other things time wise.
MDawg
MDawg
  • Threads: 40
  • Posts: 7609
Joined: Sep 27, 2018
June 3rd, 2019 at 3:01:24 PM permalink
If his goal truly was 1st place, then he should have bet at least $3201.

At the end he trails $23,400 to her $26,600. - by betting only $1399. even if she is unsure of her answer and decides to bet 0, or a dollar, he still loses. So $1399. is that "complicated (but worthless) explanation" I expected from him.

His betting $1399. then assumes that she will (1) bet anything at all, (2) bet more than $1801., (3) get the answer wrong, and that he (4) will get the answer right. If he had bet $3201., instead of all four of those having to happen in order for him to win, he would have won even if only (1) she did not bet, and (4) he gets the answer right, happened.

He must not have been 100% sure of his answer. If he was 100% sure, he would have bet it all, and this would have given him even more chances to win, such as if she decided to play it safe and bet less.

I think what really happened is that he realized that he was beaten and went for second place. His opponent was a librarian right? What librarian doesn't know about Christopher Marlowe? If James knew enough about Marlowe to know that his nickname was "Kit" then he would also have known that anyone with any English Lit. knowledge, such as a librarian, would be very familiar with that 16th century poet. Again, I haven't seen the episode yet, but I imagine that he already observed her whizzing down that Lit. category and realized that she was familiar with it.
Last edited by: MDawg on Jun 3, 2019
I tell you itís wonderful to be here, man. I donít give a damn who wins or loses. Itís just wonderful to be here with you people. https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
EdCollins
EdCollins
  • Threads: 20
  • Posts: 1739
Joined: Oct 21, 2011
June 3rd, 2019 at 3:15:10 PM permalink
Quote: MDawg

...If he had bet $3201., instead of all four of those having to happen in order for him to win, he would have won if she did not bet, and he gets the answer right...

But that's two scenarios. As it is, with the bet he made, he only needs one scenario... for her to miss the final question... in order for him to win.



Quote: MDawg

What librarian doesn't know about Christopher Marlowe? If James knew enough about Marlowe to know that his nickname was "Kit" then he would also have known that anyone with any English Lit. knowledge, such as a librarian, would be very familiar with that 16th century poet.

Christopher Marlowe was the correct answer to the Final Jeopardy question. The category, all they had to go on before making their wager, was "Shakespeare's Time." (The contestants make their bet after knowing the category but before seeing the question.) So James "knowing enough about Marlowe to know that his nickname was Kit" is irrelevant to the size of his bet... since at that point his bet has already been made.
MDawg
MDawg
  • Threads: 40
  • Posts: 7609
Joined: Sep 27, 2018
June 3rd, 2019 at 3:19:47 PM permalink
Exactly the point, by betting $1399. he left himself with only ONE scenario to win - that she bets a lot, and loses.

If he had bet over $3201. he had the additional scenario of her betting nothing, and his winning.

As I wrote above: it must have already been obvious to him that she knew that Lit. (Literature) category, from the way she had been whizzing through it.


Clearly, he gave up and went for second place.
I tell you itís wonderful to be here, man. I donít give a damn who wins or loses. Itís just wonderful to be here with you people. https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
MDawg
MDawg
  • Threads: 40
  • Posts: 7609
Joined: Sep 27, 2018
June 3rd, 2019 at 3:21:32 PM permalink
Quote: MDawg

Clearly, he gave up and went for second place.



In fact, I just found it:
ďSo my only concern was getting overtaken by third place, and I bet just enough to make sure of locking him out,Ē Holzhauer told The Action Network.
https://nypost.com/2019/06/03/james-holzhauers-losing-final-jeopardy-wager-in-his-own-words/
I tell you itís wonderful to be here, man. I donít give a damn who wins or loses. Itís just wonderful to be here with you people. https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
EdCollins
EdCollins
  • Threads: 20
  • Posts: 1739
Joined: Oct 21, 2011
June 3rd, 2019 at 3:29:34 PM permalink
No, no, no. He didn't GIVE UP and go for second place. That's not accurate at all.

He was still hoping she would answer incorrectly and that he would win. His only "concern" was to be sure to NOT allow the player in third place to overtake him, just in case he and the gal both answered the question incorrectly, and the third place gentleman answered correctly. In that scenario he would lose to the third place person if he, James, makes a large bet.

But as it is with his low bet, he STILL WINS THE GAME no matter how the third person answers (correctly or incorrectly)... since he didn't risk enough that a miss by him would allow the third place person to overtake him.
EdCollins
EdCollins
  • Threads: 20
  • Posts: 1739
Joined: Oct 21, 2011
June 3rd, 2019 at 3:32:55 PM permalink
https://thejeopardyfan.com/final-jeopardy-betting

Wagering Strategy 101: How To Bet In Final Jeopardy

Scroll down to Strategies For 2nd Place
Scroll down to Two-Thirds Game

That's this scenario for James. That's what he did.
MDawg
MDawg
  • Threads: 40
  • Posts: 7609
Joined: Sep 27, 2018
June 3rd, 2019 at 3:35:42 PM permalink
I guess when you get to the point that the player himself is saying what he did, and WOV posters are still arguing contrary to the man's own statement, it's time to leave this one alone!
I tell you itís wonderful to be here, man. I donít give a damn who wins or loses. Itís just wonderful to be here with you people. https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
SkittleCar1
SkittleCar1
  • Threads: 14
  • Posts: 253
Joined: Feb 7, 2014
June 3rd, 2019 at 3:41:14 PM permalink
Jeopardy is sold in syndication to your local station. It could be on your local ABC, CBS, FOX or NBC. And can air at the time they choose.
EdCollins
EdCollins
  • Threads: 20
  • Posts: 1739
Joined: Oct 21, 2011
June 3rd, 2019 at 3:44:54 PM permalink
Quote: MDawg

I guess when you get to the point that the player himself is saying what he did, and WOV posters are still arguing contrary to the man's own statement, it's time to leave this one alone!

Yes, the player (James) himself is saying what he did, but you're misinterpreting it.

You said, "clearly, he gave up and went for second place."

That's not at all true. James never said anything like that. He explained why he bet low. He wasn't giving up. He was preventing a possible scenario of the third place player overtaking him and the leader. His strategy was still to win, and his low bet was the best way to do that.
EdCollins
EdCollins
  • Threads: 20
  • Posts: 1739
Joined: Oct 21, 2011
June 3rd, 2019 at 3:46:08 PM permalink
Quote: SkittleCar1

Jeopardy is sold in syndication to your local station. It could be on your local ABC, CBS, FOX or NBC. And can air at the time they choose.

Yep. And as far as I can remember, our local ABC affiliate has always broadcasted the program, and always in the early evening here in Southern California.
Deucekies
Deucekies
  • Threads: 58
  • Posts: 1457
Joined: Jan 20, 2014
Thanked by
EdCollins
June 3rd, 2019 at 3:51:30 PM permalink
Quote: MDawg

I guess when you get to the point that the player himself is saying what he did, and WOV posters are still arguing contrary to the man's own statement, it's time to leave this one alone!



The flaw in your logic is that you're assuming Emma might wager something ridiculous.

If Emma is right, Emma wins. End of story. There's no "What if she wagers less than..." No. She's wagering enough to achieve 2x James's total + $1 every time. If she doesn't, she is the fool of fools, and never belonged on that stage.

So James's only hope is that Emma misses. So now what?

Emma misses, and drops down to table scraps. What about Jay? James has Jay locked out, and needs to keep it that way. By wagering no more than $1399, he stops Jay from overtaking him, and guarantees AT LEAST second place.

When James says he's only concentrated on beating Jay, that's not him resigning himself to second place. Whether he wins the game depends entirely on Emma, and there's nothing James can do to change that.

Does that help?
Casinos are not your friends, they want your money. But so does Disneyland. And there is no chance in hell that you will go to Disneyland and come back with more money than you went with. - AxelWolf and Mickeycrimm
EdCollins
EdCollins
  • Threads: 20
  • Posts: 1739
Joined: Oct 21, 2011
June 3rd, 2019 at 3:55:01 PM permalink
Quote: Deucekies

When James says he's only concentrated on beating Jay, that's not him resigning himself to second place.

Yes. Exactly. You said it better than I did. He still wants to win and is hoping to win and is still doing his best to win.
SkittleCar1
SkittleCar1
  • Threads: 14
  • Posts: 253
Joined: Feb 7, 2014
June 3rd, 2019 at 4:35:34 PM permalink
Well, it just ended here in Northeast NY. I was surprised how choked up Alex Trebek got at the end. Almost to tears.
beachbumbabs
beachbumbabs
  • Threads: 101
  • Posts: 14268
Joined: May 21, 2013
Thanked by
EdCollinsSOOPOO
June 3rd, 2019 at 4:35:52 PM permalink
Agreed. James wins if Emma misses and bets more than a couple thousand. He has to guard against 3rd place betting it all, and both he and Emma missing. I think he made the best percentage bet in that spot.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
charliepatrick
charliepatrick
  • Threads: 39
  • Posts: 2972
Joined: Jun 17, 2011
June 3rd, 2019 at 4:36:43 PM permalink
Shame that lots of spoilers have been around, when I started to look for a video of today's show google gave me a "spoiler alert", so I knew something was afoot (although it wasn't clear whether it was James beating the old record or losing). I have finally found a video ( https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X4Fzs15awzQ ) but not sure how long it will be around.
Interesting that the first Daily Double was the first question, so of no use to James really. Then both the other DDs went to Emma where she risked her entire stack (7.6k) and then only 3k. She took the lead and kept it until the final round. Emma bet $20201 correctly as if she gets it right she cannot be caught; James bets correctly so Jay cannot overtake him if he gets it wrong (James needs Emma to get question wrong to win). Technically Jay overbet, he cannot win (because James has him locked out) but should also hope Emma gets the question wrong so he can grab second even if he gets the question wrong.
Tanko
Tanko
  • Threads: 0
  • Posts: 1203
Joined: Apr 22, 2013
Thanked by
MDawg
June 3rd, 2019 at 5:06:34 PM permalink
I do not believe him. Heís a sports better who is used to betting large, and has seen his share of big losses. He rarely bet less than five figures whenever he had the chance on the show.

Suddenly, facing defeat against a librarian who did not get any answers wrong, and was about to be asked a question about Shakespeare, he bets $1,399 to guarantee himself second place and an extra measly $1,000, when an all in bet would have won the game and put him within $20k of the record.

Turns out, she's an English major at Princeton.
MDawg
MDawg
  • Threads: 40
  • Posts: 7609
Joined: Sep 27, 2018
June 3rd, 2019 at 5:10:46 PM permalink
This is actually the first entire episode I bothered to watch of Jeopardy in years.

Given that I didn't watch how James power housed through the prior episodes, with this one, where he lost, I have a much fresher, less biased outlook than anyone who has been watching all along. I observed that he had some luck working against him - that she got the two daily doubles and he did not - but even so, he seemed to be playing catch up for most of the game. She overpowered him. He didn't even look that great to me, watching in a vacuum and with no prior viewing of his previous games.

That look on his face when he makes his bet, he knew he was done for. He wasn't going to win in the category of Shakespeare versus a Princeton lit. major university level librarian. At a minimum, even if he had known nothing at all about her, he knew she had powered through the Lit. category earlier and knew her stuff in that field.

"Knowing the odds were not in his favor for first place, Holzhauer decided to protect himself against coming in third place."
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/03/why-james-holzhauer-bet-so-little-during-his-last-final-jeopardy.html

He bet to place. Not to win.

Or maybe, after all is said and done, it was the Curse of Drake.
https://uproxx.com/sports/jeopardy-champion-james-holzhauer-drake-curse-twitter/
I tell you itís wonderful to be here, man. I donít give a damn who wins or loses. Itís just wonderful to be here with you people. https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
GWAE
GWAE
  • Threads: 93
  • Posts: 9854
Joined: Sep 20, 2013
Thanked by
EdCollinstringlomane
June 3rd, 2019 at 5:11:03 PM permalink
Quote: Tanko

I do not believe him. Heís a sports better who is used to betting large, and has seen his share of big losses. He rarely bet less than five figures whenever he had the chance on the show.

Suddenly, facing defeat against a librarian who did not get any answers wrong, and was about to be asked a question about Shakespeare, he bets $1,399 to guarantee himself second place and an extra measly $1,000, when an all in bet would have won the game and put him within $20k of the record.



what don't you believe? He said what you just said, he was locking out 3rd.

He is a gambler, he was making the best EV play. Sure the 3300 bet or whatever could have given him another scenario, I think that her betting low was almost at 0%. No way is she going to be $0 and let him over take her. Especially on a category that I bet she felt good about. Best EV play was to guarantee 2k with a shot at the 1st prize.
Expect the worst and you will never be disappointed. I AM NOT PART OF GWAE RADIO SHOW
MDawg
MDawg
  • Threads: 40
  • Posts: 7609
Joined: Sep 27, 2018
June 3rd, 2019 at 5:12:58 PM permalink
Some people just want to believe in their heroes against all evidence to the contrary.

I'm sometimes the first to believe in a pattern where others believe that there might be none, but in this case this guy was simply overpowered by a superior opponent, at least, with reference to the subject matter of this particular show. His last ditch effort was just to bow out with a semblance of cleverness and make sure that he at least got 2nd place. He knew he was done for.

Or maybe Drake threw a curse on him, and tied his tongue that night.
I tell you itís wonderful to be here, man. I donít give a damn who wins or loses. Itís just wonderful to be here with you people. https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
Puckerbutt
Puckerbutt
  • Threads: 1
  • Posts: 176
Joined: Sep 24, 2013
Thanked by
MaxPenEdCollinsPokerGrinderJoeman
June 3rd, 2019 at 5:19:23 PM permalink
It's unbelievable that some folks still don't understand that his betting strategy was correct.
If'n I'd a knowed you wanted to have went with me - I'd a seen that you got to get to go.
MDawg
MDawg
  • Threads: 40
  • Posts: 7609
Joined: Sep 27, 2018
June 3rd, 2019 at 5:22:37 PM permalink
He punted. He went for the point spread instead of the win.
I tell you itís wonderful to be here, man. I donít give a damn who wins or loses. Itís just wonderful to be here with you people. https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
Gialmere
Gialmere
  • Threads: 45
  • Posts: 3000
Joined: Nov 26, 2018
June 3rd, 2019 at 5:29:57 PM permalink
I wonder if the new "buzzer practice" session helped her.

Also, any action on her losing tomorrow?
Have you tried 22 tonight? I said 22.
bj4fun
bj4fun
  • Threads: 21
  • Posts: 123
Joined: Dec 18, 2013
Thanked by
EdCollins
June 3rd, 2019 at 5:34:42 PM permalink
Quote: MDawg

Conspiracy theory: Poppycock!

Without watching the entire episode, it's hard to comment without speculating. But looking just at his low bet @ the leaked segment, the first impulse is to assume that he was unsure of the "Christopher Marlowe" answer, why else bet low? I go with the simple explanation. Maybe after the fact he'll come up with some complicated reasoning for why he bet low, but keep in mind that he's a lifetime gambler, so who knows whether he'll ever tell the truth about why he bet or how he bet. He might not want to admit that he was unsure of the answer, even if in fact he was. Or that he screwed up, and didn't "go with the odds" in choosing his wager amount.

Again, assuming he was unsure of his answer, too bad he didn't have me there to signal him lol, I know Marlowe's poetry inside out. Again, without watching the episode, I'd guess it had something to do with the Passionate Shepherd, probably his most famous poem, or maybe something to do with his famous death.

Also, in general, maybe James just didn't know the quizzed content from this episode as well as he knew the content from prior episodes. Or put another way, his challenger knew the content better. That's again the simple explanation, which is usually the correct one.


Anyway, he did well, and perhaps ushered in a new era of picking the bottom first, versus top, of the Jeopardy board answers.



Clearly MDawg doesn't understand how the betting in final Jeopardy works. The wagers happen prior to seeing the clue and cannot be changed. As with any professional gambler, James wagered exactly what he was suppose to wager to maximize his expected EV.
Wiggins
Wiggins
  • Threads: 2
  • Posts: 78
Joined: Mar 26, 2015
June 3rd, 2019 at 5:40:10 PM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

I know almost nothing about Torrent stuff. You have peaked my interest. This made me think of the Game Of Thrones betting and how some people accidentally got to see the show before the lines were closed. Could this private torrent site come into play in situations like that?



I watched him lose on Saturday and of course immediately looked for lines online but there was nothing posted anywhere. I believe the maximum wagers on entertainment props are very low anyway.
MDawg
MDawg
  • Threads: 40
  • Posts: 7609
Joined: Sep 27, 2018
June 3rd, 2019 at 5:42:10 PM permalink
He knew the category, Shakespeare, and he knew that she had powered through the Lit. category prior. As I recall, she got the $2000. question from that Lit. category effortlessly. He also knew, I believe, that she was a college level librarian. He had to know what it takes to get hired for such a job. As such, unless he was an idiot, he would have expected that she had a better chance at getting a question from that category right.

Anyway, he himself admitted that he went for 2nd place.

He looked weak compared to her throughout most of the game. The Drake curse was working.

He knew he was done for.
I tell you itís wonderful to be here, man. I donít give a damn who wins or loses. Itís just wonderful to be here with you people. https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
EdCollins
EdCollins
  • Threads: 20
  • Posts: 1739
Joined: Oct 21, 2011
June 3rd, 2019 at 5:42:21 PM permalink
Quote: Puckerbutt

It's unbelievable that some folks still don't understand that his betting strategy was correct.

Yes. The amazing part of it is that even after it is explained to them, they STILL don't understand. I can understand how someone might not realize it initially. But after the proper betting strategy is explained, to still not get it? Sigh...
EdCollins
EdCollins
  • Threads: 20
  • Posts: 1739
Joined: Oct 21, 2011
June 3rd, 2019 at 5:44:22 PM permalink
Quote: Tanko

...he bets $1,399 to guarantee himself second place and an extra measly $1,000, when an all in bet would have won the game and put him within $20k of the record.

Ah, but an all-in bet would not have won him the game. He would have still lost by exactly $1.00.
MDawg
MDawg
  • Threads: 40
  • Posts: 7609
Joined: Sep 27, 2018
June 3rd, 2019 at 5:46:15 PM permalink
I'm not saying he should have bet all in. He should have bet 3201 or more.

This way, if she decided to wager nothing or a dollar, then he would have a chance to win in that secondary way. I mean, he already saw that she was potentially risk adverse, betting only 3K on the second daily double.

But mostly he just realized that it was curtains and that he didn't have a greater chance of answering a question in that category more accurately than she did. This is the element that the statisticians here refuse to accept.

Obviously he's not going to come out and say, "Well, she seemed like she'd be more of an authority in Shakespeare than I, so I went for second place since I figured she'd probably answer right." That isn't going to further his gambling career as much as trying to do something clever and seem like a brilliant handicapper to the end.
I tell you itís wonderful to be here, man. I donít give a damn who wins or loses. Itís just wonderful to be here with you people. https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
Lovecomps
Lovecomps
  • Threads: 79
  • Posts: 427
Joined: Aug 12, 2018
Thanked by
MDawg
June 3rd, 2019 at 5:49:26 PM permalink
Good. I was pretty fed up with the guy.
The best things in life are not free.
EdCollins
EdCollins
  • Threads: 20
  • Posts: 1739
Joined: Oct 21, 2011
June 3rd, 2019 at 5:51:13 PM permalink
Quote: MDawg

...This way, if she decided to wager nothing or a dollar, then he would have a chance to win in that secondary way.

You obviously don't watch Jeopardy very often or at all. No one in first place ever does this. It's not proper strategy to do that. The chances of her doing that were so small it can, for all practical purposes, be ruled out completely.
TDVegas
TDVegas
  • Threads: 3
  • Posts: 1186
Joined: Oct 30, 2018
Thanked by
EdCollins
June 3rd, 2019 at 5:55:01 PM permalink
He played exactly how he was supposed to play it. His only chance was that she gets it wrong. By betting too much, he could still lose to the 3rd place contestant.
EdCollins
EdCollins
  • Threads: 20
  • Posts: 1739
Joined: Oct 21, 2011
Thanked by
Joeman
June 3rd, 2019 at 5:55:40 PM permalink
Quote: MDawg

...His last ditch effort was just to bow out with a semblance of cleverness and make sure that he at least got 2nd place.

This makes NO sense because the difference between 2nd Place and 3rd Place is just $1,000. When you've already won 32 games and earned 2.4 million in the process, an extra $1,000 is nothing. After his run, 3rd Place on his final show would be nothing to be ashamed of.
EdCollins
EdCollins
  • Threads: 20
  • Posts: 1739
Joined: Oct 21, 2011
Thanked by
TDVegas
June 3rd, 2019 at 5:56:25 PM permalink
Quote: TDVegas

He played exactly how he was supposed to play it. His only chance was that she gets it wrong. By betting too much, he could still lose to the 3rd place contestant.

Exactly. Glad to know some people understand.
MDawg
MDawg
  • Threads: 40
  • Posts: 7609
Joined: Sep 27, 2018
June 3rd, 2019 at 5:56:31 PM permalink
Okay then, if he KNEW she was going to bet a lot, then he should have bet a lot. Because he DID know that she was risk adverse, betting only 3K on the second daily double, so he could have hoped that she might not bet enough to ensure a win.

Bottom line is that he realized that she had a better chance at that category than he did, or - put another way, that someone with her background and proven prowess in the literature category would probably answer right, so he gave up and went for a guaranteed second place.
I tell you itís wonderful to be here, man. I donít give a damn who wins or loses. Itís just wonderful to be here with you people. https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
  • Jump to: