MakingBook
MakingBook
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November 17th, 2012 at 8:50:33 AM permalink
As an ex-bookmaker, I can't resist setting odds on the showdown.

For entertainment purposes, lets go with:

+120 STEAL - SPLIT
+120 STEAL - STEAL
+300 SPLIT - SPLIT

Just my opinion; and I may be way off? Thoughts?
"I am a man devoured by the passion for gambling." --Dostoevsky, 1871
thecesspit
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November 17th, 2012 at 8:52:27 AM permalink
Quick... everyone put down $50 on split/split at +300. Then there's a huge incentive for the leaders to go the right way!
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
Wizard
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November 17th, 2012 at 9:14:46 AM permalink
Quote: thecesspit

Rules are rules. We should play as written. UNLESS the order wasn't random, in which case there should be a random draw between miplet and CM.



Fair point. I am big on following posted rules, as evidenced by my complaining in the Riviera promotion thread.

So, CrystalMath and avargov are tied for the greatest team share. We'll use the first score after the end of the first quarter (the game is already in the first quarter) in the Florida St./Maryland game to determine the leader. If the number of seconds at the time of that score is an odd number then CM will be the leader, even avargov.

My apologies miplet.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
bigfoot66
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November 17th, 2012 at 9:21:40 AM permalink
Quote: MakingBook

As an ex-bookmaker, I can't resist setting odds on the showdown.

For entertainment purposes, lets go with:

+120 STEAL - SPLIT
+120 STEAL - STEAL
+300 SPLIT - SPLIT

Just my opinion; and I may be way off? Thoughts?



Give me $1000 on steal/split ;)
Vote for Nobody 2020!
thecesspit
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November 17th, 2012 at 9:24:32 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Fair point. I am big on following posted rules, as evidenced by my complaining in the Riviera promotion thread.

So, CrystalMath and avargov are tied for the greatest team share. We'll use the first score after the end of the first quarter (the game is already in the first quarter) in the Florida St./Maryland game to determine the leader. If the number of seconds at the time of that score is an odd number then CM will be the leader, even avargov.

My apologies miplet.



I meant avargov not miplet, but I approve of this choice :)
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
Wizard
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November 17th, 2012 at 10:01:45 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

We'll use the first score after the end of the first quarter (the game is already in the first quarter) in the Florida St./Maryland game to determine the leader. If the number of seconds at the time of that score is an odd number then CM will be the leader, even avargov.



The first score of the second quarter was a field goal, right at 15:00, by Florida State. Since 1500 is an even number, avargov shall be the team leader.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
rdw4potus
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November 17th, 2012 at 10:16:25 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Quote: Wizard

We'll use the first score after the end of the first quarter (the game is already in the first quarter) in the Florida St./Maryland game to determine the leader. If the number of seconds at the time of that score is an odd number then CM will be the leader, even avargov.



The first score of the second quarter was a field goal, right at 15:00, by Florida State. Since 1500 is an even number, avargov shall be the team leader.



Actually the 3rd down play was at 15:00, and the field goal was at 14:51.
"So as the clock ticked and the day passed, opportunity met preparation, and luck happened." - Maurice Clarett
TIMSPEED
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November 17th, 2012 at 10:56:36 AM permalink
wow, I guessed wrong..
I was guessing that the first bracket would double STEAL, so I chose SPLIT to advance my opponent...
Had I of thought better, I would have chosen STEAL, so that way Mike's money would be history...
Ciest La Vie...
If you guys both choose STEAL, I'm going to be very disappointed...
Gambling calls to me...like this ~> http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Nap37mNSmQ
Wizard
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November 17th, 2012 at 11:16:17 AM permalink
Quote: rdw4potus

Actually the 3rd down play was at 15:00, and the field goal was at 14:51.



4th-8, MD8 15:00D. Hopkins kicked a 26-yard field goal

Source: http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/football/boxscore?gid=201211170005&page=plays
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
rdw4potus
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November 17th, 2012 at 11:23:44 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

4th-8, MD8 15:00D. Hopkins kicked a 26-yard field goal

Source: http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/football/boxscore?gid=201211170005&page=plays



It appears Yahoo has a misprint. Here's ESPN's page http://scores.espn.go.com/ncf/boxscore?gameId=323220120

There's no way that both the 3rd and 4th down plays occurred at 15:00 as Yahoo has reported.

I wonder how often disparities like this occur in sports reporting, and I wonder how prop bets would be resolved in the face of differentiated information. Is there an official source that is commonly used?
"So as the clock ticked and the day passed, opportunity met preparation, and luck happened." - Maurice Clarett
Wizard
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November 17th, 2012 at 11:51:44 AM permalink
Quote: rdw4potus

It appears Yahoo has a misprint. Here's ESPN's page http://scores.espn.go.com/ncf/boxscore?gameId=323220120

There's no way that both the 3rd and 4th down plays occurred at 15:00 as Yahoo has reported.

I wonder how often disparities like this occur in sports reporting, and I wonder how prop bets would be resolved in the face of differentiated information. Is there an official source that is commonly used?



I think you're right. Having used Yahoo sports thousands of times; I know they make a lot of errors. Even in things like the box scores, giving one point for a touchdown. So, in lieu of this apparant error, assuming ESPN is correct, CrystalMath is the new team leader. Hopefully the third time is the charm.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
Ayecarumba
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November 17th, 2012 at 1:50:15 PM permalink
Quote: Mission146

I will tell you guys that my strategy is very simple, you will all either continue to advance me or you will self-eliminate. I'm stealing, so you're gone anyway, don't even worry about that. For those of you who may meet me in the last round or two, if the price hasn't been chopped too many ways by then, I might share at that point, but if we're to the last round with six (or more) people, forget about it.

As far as the rest of you are concerned, I suggest that all of you share early or you're not going to be viewed as trustworthy in later rounds. If I run up against someone next round that stole this round, (assuming AyeCarumba doesn't go the MAD route) it's going to be the same thing, I'm eliminating you, so you decide whether or not I continue.

When we get to the later Rounds, if I'm paired up with some people who have not yet stolen, then we'll see.



The world is a different place in only seven days... I'm enjoying this game very much! Sharing has served us well to this point and there are good reasons to stay true to the original course. However, I would feel better if we had more assurances from our opponents that they agreed with Mission146.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
CrystalMath
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November 18th, 2012 at 2:37:53 PM permalink
Will everyone in my group please send me a PM with your thoughts.
I heart Crystal Math.
Ayecarumba
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November 19th, 2012 at 9:29:04 AM permalink
This thread has gone strangely quiet. Almost too quiet... I got a bad feeling about this...
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
TIMSPEED
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November 19th, 2012 at 9:32:13 AM permalink
Now I feel bad that I didn't make a winner in this game when I had the chance...
Gambling calls to me...like this ~> http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Nap37mNSmQ
CrystalMath
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November 19th, 2012 at 5:26:54 PM permalink
I implore my opponents to donate any winnings to charity.
I heart Crystal Math.
Wizard
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November 19th, 2012 at 6:07:02 PM permalink
Round 4 Results

Team 1: miplet + RaleighCraps + darnits + Ayecarumba + CrystalMath + avargov: Share
Team 2: WongBo + FinsRule + Mission146 + thecesspit: Steal

Team 1, I offer my commiserations for the knife in your back. Team 2, congratulations on a successful steal.

So, I owe each member of team 2 $50. PM me with how you would like to be paid.

As has been mentiond, donating winnings to charity is also an option. In particular, a well-known charity in Las Vegas is Opportunity Village. This is an organization for the benefit of the mentally disabled in Las Vegas. When Penn played on the Apprentice he chose OV to get his share of any prize money. I'm a little familiar with them via my kids' piano teacher. She had a son with downs syndrome. He went there on a daily basis. I'm not sure what he did there, but his mother was very supportive of the organization. It gave him something to do and gave her some relief from taking care of him all day. Sadly, said son died about a year ago, but I think his life was a lot happier due to Opporunity Village.

I will match any donations to the next Golden Balls prize pool.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
CrystalMath
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November 19th, 2012 at 6:13:28 PM permalink
I anticipated my team's opponents stealing. If any of it is donated to charity, my decision was worth it. I must say that they are men of their words, because they said nothing.
I heart Crystal Math.
AxiomOfChoice
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November 19th, 2012 at 6:17:48 PM permalink
Mission's team stole! My faith in humanity is restored.
WongBo
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November 19th, 2012 at 6:36:03 PM permalink
Please donate my share to
The Wong Bo Center for the Advancement of Baccarat Studies...
Ok forget that. Opporunity Village is a better cause
And I urge all of my fellow thieves ...er ...team members to follow suit.
In a bet, there is a fool and a thief. - Proverb.
thecesspit
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November 19th, 2012 at 6:45:29 PM permalink
I didn't vote for a steal, my vote counted for nothing in the end, and there was winnings to be had. The only round I considered a steal was versus Mission due to the number of words used to convince me to split...
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
MakingBook
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November 19th, 2012 at 6:58:08 PM permalink
Quote: bigfoot66

Give me $1000 on steal/split ;)



WINNER! +$1,200
"I am a man devoured by the passion for gambling." --Dostoevsky, 1871
AcesAndEights
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November 19th, 2012 at 7:14:29 PM permalink
C'mon guys. Charity shmarity...you won fair and square (deceit is a part of the game), take the money and run!
"So drink gamble eat f***, because one day you will be dust." -ontariodealer
RaleighCraps
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November 19th, 2012 at 7:26:00 PM permalink
Quote: CrystalMath

I anticipated my team's opponents stealing. If any of it is donated to charity, my decision was worth it. I must say that they are men of their words, because they said nothing.



CM,
I appreciate your vote to Share. It was a good game we played, and we can walk with our heads held high, especially if our thieving opponents {grin} donate their spoils to charity. Karma is waiting to kick their asses if they don't.
Always borrow money from a pessimist; They don't expect to get paid back ! Be yourself and speak your thoughts. Those who matter won't mind, and those that mind, don't matter!
Wizard
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November 19th, 2012 at 7:51:23 PM permalink
Quote: RaleighCraps

Karma is waiting to kick their asses if they don't.



Maybe even if they do. How much karma did Robin Hood have?
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
RaleighCraps
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November 19th, 2012 at 7:55:48 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Maybe even if they do. How much karma did Robin Hood have?


Robin Hood got Maid Marian!
Always borrow money from a pessimist; They don't expect to get paid back ! Be yourself and speak your thoughts. Those who matter won't mind, and those that mind, don't matter!
Mission146
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November 19th, 2012 at 7:59:47 PM permalink
Quote: CrystalMath

I anticipated my team's opponents stealing. If any of it is donated to charity, my decision was worth it. I must say that they are men of their words, because they said nothing.



Not me, I'm a lying sack of shit!

I will be, however, donating my money to a girl with leukemia, that part was true. $50 might be a little much for me to be risking on her behalf, though, so I'll probably just give it to her.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
Mission146
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November 19th, 2012 at 8:32:17 PM permalink
Oh, sorry!

I missed the part where The Wiz said he would match donations to that charity to the next prize pool, ok, put me down for that, please.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
avargov
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November 19th, 2012 at 9:06:58 PM permalink
I was afraid this would happen. Good game everyone!
Before you diagnose yourself with depression or low self-esteem, first make sure that you are not, in fact, just surrounded by assholes." ~ William Gibson
Mission146
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November 19th, 2012 at 11:01:45 PM permalink
Quote: RaleighCraps


For this reason, I implore everyone who is left in the game to follow the lead that has already been set by most of us, and consider donating your share to charity. With your mind now uncluttered by greed, it becomes a very simple vote to SHARE. And, if the Wizard does the donation to the charity of his choice, he will then reap the tax benefit, thus Wiz will also get something out of the $200 he graciously donated for this game.



It's not about the money, it's about winning. I know I couldn't have gotten past the goal line alone, but I think three teammates is a darn low number with whom to succeed, maybe myself and FinsRule could have went it alone, but I doubt it.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
RaleighCraps
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November 20th, 2012 at 7:11:09 AM permalink
Quote: Mission146

It's not about the money, it's about winning. I know I couldn't have gotten past the goal line alone, but I think three teammates is a darn low number with whom to succeed, maybe myself and FinsRule could have went it alone, but I doubt it.



Of course, had Timspeed seen through your manipulations, you would not have survived round 3, and 4 of the 6 winners would have been non-stealers.
should have, would have, could have.......

The only difference between your manipulations, and my attempt, is yours worked! ;-)

I do think the game would be more interesting with my addition to thwart the Steal, but I also recognizes it drastically changes the game.

Congrats to the winners.
Always borrow money from a pessimist; They don't expect to get paid back ! Be yourself and speak your thoughts. Those who matter won't mind, and those that mind, don't matter!
Ayecarumba
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November 20th, 2012 at 8:40:23 AM permalink
I also offer my congratulations to the winners. I am very curious about the process leading up to the decision to steal. Was it Wong Bo going it alone, or was there a vote? If a vote, was it unanimous?
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
WongBo
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November 20th, 2012 at 8:50:31 AM permalink
The world may never know....
I am confined to posting from my phone at the present time.
When I get back to my desk I will evade your questions in longer form.
;)
In a bet, there is a fool and a thief. - Proverb.
TIMSPEED
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November 20th, 2012 at 8:50:54 AM permalink
I'm glad to see my strategy of having the fewest winners worked.
Finsrule, you can thank me later, lol.
Gambling calls to me...like this ~> http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Nap37mNSmQ
Ayecarumba
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November 20th, 2012 at 9:05:28 AM permalink
Quote: WongBo

The world may never know....
I am confined to posting from my phone at the present time.
When I get back to my desk I will evade your questions in longer form.
;)



Hehe..

As for my former team members, please feel free to post any of my PM's related to the game. I'd love to know what you, and the others were thinking, and I think the board would find it interesting as well.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
SOOPOO
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November 20th, 2012 at 9:17:47 AM permalink
What I find most interesting about this game, is that there are 4 people who are being asked to donate $50 to a previously unknown charity, and I will guess that all 4 will do so, or at least pick a different charity. Interestingly, this is the same psychology casinos use, that is you are no longer playing with real money, rather, you are using 'house money'. The philanthropic winners will justify their donations with something like 'If Mike recommends it it must be a worthwhile charity'. If that be the case, then the losers should donate as well, as I doubt the $50 makes any significant difference in the net worths of any of the participants, and the winners net worths have only been increased by $50.
I think I read Mission is donating $50 to a leukemic girl. Mission, would you NOT have made a $50 donation had you not won?
FinsRule
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November 20th, 2012 at 9:45:07 AM permalink
On a sort of related note, I think the charity aspect of the game influenced the decision making too much. I didn't really care one way or another because if I didn't win, it didn't matter, the money would go to charity.

I'm still deciding what to do with the $50, but I'm sure I'm going to decide to give it to charity because I don't want to look like a jerk.
thecesspit
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November 20th, 2012 at 10:42:12 AM permalink
Just so everyone knows, I'm getting the wizard to send my winnings to me.

(It's then getting donated from there to a cause/event I'm personally interested in).
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
Wizard
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November 20th, 2012 at 10:42:19 AM permalink
Quote: FinsRule

On a sort of related note, I think the charity aspect of the game influenced the decision making too much. I didn't really care one way or another because if I didn't win, it didn't matter, the money would go to charity.



That is a fair point. I think in the next round I will not push the charity option so much. In fact, I might prohibit it. Let me think about it.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
JimRockford
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November 20th, 2012 at 10:47:06 AM permalink
The dynamic of this game reminds me of a cartel. Collectively the cartel has an interest in keeping whatever agreement is in place for price, fixing production limits etc. However individually, each member of the cartel always has an incentive to break the agreement and get more than their share.
"Truth is ever to be found in the simplicity, and not in the multiplicity and confusion of things." -- Isaac Newton
Ayecarumba
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November 20th, 2012 at 10:50:30 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

That is a fair point. I think in the next round I will not push the charity option so much. In fact, I might prohibit it. Let me think about it.



I would advise against any restrictions on how the winner(s) can use the money. The freedom to use it selfishly, give it away, or say you will do one, but do the other, is a fundamental aspect of the game.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
Ayecarumba
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November 20th, 2012 at 10:52:33 AM permalink
Quote: thecesspit

Just so everyone knows, I'm getting the wizard to send my winnings to me.

(It's then getting donated from there to a cause/event I'm personally interested in).



It would be considerate to comp him some postage and handling out of your winnings... just saying (because I am a bitter loser.. hehe).
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
thecesspit
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November 20th, 2012 at 10:54:23 AM permalink
Quote: Ayecarumba

It would be considerate to comp him some postage and handling out of your winnings... just saying (because I am a bitter loser.. hehe).



Electronic fund transfers don't cost postage... :p
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
Ayecarumba
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November 20th, 2012 at 11:04:56 AM permalink
Quote: thecesspit

Electronic fund transfers don't cost postage... :p

There's still "handling"... I think the Wizard bills like $300 an hour... hehe
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
DJTeddyBear
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November 20th, 2012 at 11:11:15 AM permalink
Quote: Ayecarumba

I would advise against any restrictions on how the winner(s) can use the money. The freedom to use it selfishly, give it away, or say you will do one, but do the other, is a fundamental aspect of the game.

I, too, would advice against restrictions regarding use.

However, remove the option to have the Wiz make the domation and earmarking it to charity becomes a more personal decision as well as physical;y demanding.

I.E. If you win, a check will be sent to your home. It's up to you do decide what to do with it.


On that note, maybe the Wiz should require a mailing address before allowing anyone to participate. Hmmm...
I invented a few casino games. Info: http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ ————————————————————————————————————— Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
AcesAndEights
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November 20th, 2012 at 11:36:50 AM permalink
Quote: DJTeddyBear

I, too, would advice against restrictions regarding use.

However, remove the option to have the Wiz make the domation and earmarking it to charity becomes a more personal decision as well as physical;y demanding.

I.E. If you win, a check will be sent to your home. It's up to you do decide what to do with it.


I agree with the Bear.
"So drink gamble eat f***, because one day you will be dust." -ontariodealer
RaleighCraps
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November 20th, 2012 at 12:58:36 PM permalink
Quote: FinsRule


On a sort of related note, I think the charity aspect of the game influenced the decision making too much. I didn't really care one way or another because if I didn't win, it didn't matter, the money would go to charity.

Quote: Wizard

That is a fair point. I think in the next round I will not push the charity option so much. In fact, I might prohibit it. Let me think about it.



The charity aspect was a fundamental change to the game. I was the first person to publicly announce that my winnings were going to charity, and I did that before round 1 was even started. I had decided that I wanted to Share all the way, and the only way that would work was to get people away from thinking they were going to win money. FinsRule comment was exactly what I was trying to achieve. I felt without that, there would be no winner, as there is no value in playing Share.

I would love to know if Wiz had decided before the game began, what the odds were that there would be no winner? Take away the charity aspect, and there is NO REASON for anyone to vote Share at the end. Both sides do your best to get your opponent to Share, but your vote is always going to be Steal.

With the new round robin twist, and the cumulative point system, there can be a reason to share.

Throw in my Fed option, where a Fed play causes the Steal to lose, and now you can have some serious head games going on.
Always borrow money from a pessimist; They don't expect to get paid back ! Be yourself and speak your thoughts. Those who matter won't mind, and those that mind, don't matter!
Ayecarumba
Ayecarumba
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November 20th, 2012 at 1:09:21 PM permalink
I like RCraps, "Fed" version. However, I agree that having a third, winning dimension, makes it a fundamentally different game, since the power of the formerly "Nuclear", steal option is significantly diminished. It's sort of like the Star Wars Defense system all over again.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
RaleighCraps
RaleighCraps
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November 20th, 2012 at 1:19:37 PM permalink
Quote: Ayecarumba

I like RCraps, "Fed" version. However, I agree that having a third, winning dimension, makes it a fundamentally different game, since the power of the formerly "Nuclear", steal option is significantly diminished. It's sort of like the Star Wars Defense system all over again.



Exactly. It becomes the "Either you let me win, or I take us both out mentality."
Always borrow money from a pessimist; They don't expect to get paid back ! Be yourself and speak your thoughts. Those who matter won't mind, and those that mind, don't matter!
WongBo
WongBo
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November 20th, 2012 at 1:35:20 PM permalink
In the interest of maintaining my postion on advantage play,
I will be asking Wizard for the $50.
Charity will have to wait until I see how far ahead I am at the end of december.
Also, I see a trend developing for future games and would hate to be a fool.
In a bet, there is a fool and a thief. - Proverb.
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