Follow the Losers
July 15th, 2016 at 10:05:18 AM
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My gripe today is related to casinos with limited craps tables. There is nothing more annoying than getting onto a table where a majority of people are tossing 7s left and right. Especially when they fling them like they are ice cubes at a frat party. What is even more annoying is when you leave that table to find another one, get on an open table, one by one all of the losers from the table you left are standing next to you again!!
Yes, they all followed each other one by one!
And, to top that off, they start complaining about how that other table was so horrible that they were happy they came to a better table. HULLOOOO!!! MCFLY!!!
This has been my week. Last week I had a nice +$4,100 week. This week I'm down quite a bit. Even if I hold my money and wait, the same loser people take their sweet arse time tossing the dice and making horrible wagers that I have to wait forever to get them.
The next closest casino is 2 hours away from me. The new one will be 30 min from me when it opens next summer (presumably). I really do envy those of you from Vegas because you probably don't have this problem at all with the number of casinos and tables you can go to.
Yes, they all followed each other one by one!
And, to top that off, they start complaining about how that other table was so horrible that they were happy they came to a better table. HULLOOOO!!! MCFLY!!!
This has been my week. Last week I had a nice +$4,100 week. This week I'm down quite a bit. Even if I hold my money and wait, the same loser people take their sweet arse time tossing the dice and making horrible wagers that I have to wait forever to get them.
The next closest casino is 2 hours away from me. The new one will be 30 min from me when it opens next summer (presumably). I really do envy those of you from Vegas because you probably don't have this problem at all with the number of casinos and tables you can go to.
“It’s a dog eat dog world out there and I’m wearing milkbone underwear .” – Norm Peterson
July 15th, 2016 at 10:15:39 AM
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I'd also like to add a "how to know you are a moron" comment as well.
Because I got to the new open table first, they let me roll the dice first. I roll 3 points and a bunch of numbers and start making some money again. However, I like a better spot on the table about 3 spots to my right. So, I move there after I roll out.
One by one, 7, 7, 7, 7, 7 from the same follow the losers and the dice come back to me. Some old geezer at the end of the table says, "Wait, how come he gets to roll the dice again? He just rolled it a little while ago!!"
I responded with one of my favorite Robin Williams quotes. I said, "Because no one here wants to continue riding on top of a psychotic horse that is heading straight towards a burning barn!"
Morons....
Because I got to the new open table first, they let me roll the dice first. I roll 3 points and a bunch of numbers and start making some money again. However, I like a better spot on the table about 3 spots to my right. So, I move there after I roll out.
One by one, 7, 7, 7, 7, 7 from the same follow the losers and the dice come back to me. Some old geezer at the end of the table says, "Wait, how come he gets to roll the dice again? He just rolled it a little while ago!!"
I responded with one of my favorite Robin Williams quotes. I said, "Because no one here wants to continue riding on top of a psychotic horse that is heading straight towards a burning barn!"
Morons....
“It’s a dog eat dog world out there and I’m wearing milkbone underwear .” – Norm Peterson
July 15th, 2016 at 10:18:52 AM
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Oh, and yeah, I'm not quite myself this week. I'm pretty grumpy. So, apologies in advance.
“It’s a dog eat dog world out there and I’m wearing milkbone underwear .” – Norm Peterson
July 15th, 2016 at 11:05:27 AM
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So you think the table, people, or how you throw the dice have anything at all to do with the outcome...?
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
July 15th, 2016 at 11:43:09 AM
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Quote: RomesSo you think the table, people, or how you throw the dice have anything at all to do with the outcome...?
Table.. No.
People.. Yes.
Dice.. Yes.
“It’s a dog eat dog world out there and I’m wearing milkbone underwear .” – Norm Peterson
July 15th, 2016 at 11:44:20 AM
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Sorry to break it to you then, you're playing craps wrong.Quote: JoelDezeTable.. No.
People.. Yes.
Dice.. Yes.
Unless Johnny Loser on your left brings loaded dice in to the game, he's not affecting the random outcome of a random throw one bit. To think that he is would be just old fashion malarky.
It can make gambling more "fun" to have some superstitions to play along with. I even have some that are just for fun (and have nothing to do with the actual play), but when you get to the point of being really upset, which you state you were/are, then it's literally affecting your health in a negative EV way and purely not worth it because it's all in your head.
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
July 15th, 2016 at 12:36:53 PM
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Quote: RomesSorry to break it to you then, you're playing craps wrong.
Unless Johnny Loser on your left brings loaded dice in to the game, he's not affecting the random outcome of a random throw one bit. To think that he is would be just old fashion malarky.
It can make gambling more "fun" to have some superstitions to play along with. I even have some that are just for fun (and have nothing to do with the actual play), but when you get to the point of being really upset, which you state you were/are, then it's literally affecting your health in a negative EV way and purely not worth it because it's all in your head.
Maybe in the Romes world everyone loses over time. In my world, I have "never" lost over time. Your opinion is pure speculation. Why?
10 people are at a table.
Show me a 100,000+ dice roll test for each person.
The "fact" that you don't have the right data for each person in front of you clearly guides your opinion. The "fact" that you believe each person has the same randomly generated principles applied to them, without taking into account numerous advantages guides your meaningless opinion.
People that roll the same dice sets over and over again tend to hit a "random range of numbers" that are group biased. For me, those numbers are 3,4,6,8,9,12. I will hit these numbers far more often than I would ever hit a 7. And, likewise, when I watch a person that shows solid motion control that operates in a set, I pay attention to the types of numbers being rolled. I also pay attention to the count of rolls before a 7-out. If you genuinely believe that this is not possible then you are entitled to your "opinion". I'm not saying you have to believe me or not but don't ever assume that I'm playing craps wrong. Why? Because I'm winning. If you are losing at craps then continue playing your game. I'll play mine.
The people I'm complaining about are the ones that pick up the dice and roll them two feet before the wall (never hitting the wall) and rolling a 7. Anyone, with enough practice can roll "any number" without hitting an obstruction every single time. Don't believe me? Go YouTube it. I get away with a few of those types of rolls now and then but for the majority, get yelled at if I don't consistently hit the wall. Even then, I get away with hitting one dice against the wall and shorting another for a little while before getting yelled at again.
Your pseudo-random generators don't take into account any practiced philosophy of dice setting and throws. And, this particular post isn't even meant to discuss this particular topic.
Here's a factual piece of information for you to ponder.
About 3 weeks ago a black gentleman came to the table and he was close to 7 feet tall. I'm assuming he was a basketball player because he was tall and lean. He was left of stick. He could almost lean in and easily drop the dice with his motion. He was doing well until the dealers kept requesting that he not lean forward too much. This is just one "aspect advantage" that takes place on the table. There are many more.
But, keep on believing what you want. You are definitely entitled to your opinion.
“It’s a dog eat dog world out there and I’m wearing milkbone underwear .” – Norm Peterson
July 15th, 2016 at 12:46:17 PM
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It's not opinion, it's fact.
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
July 15th, 2016 at 1:07:39 PM
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Your argument is like saying "99 scientists believe in global warming, and 1 scientist doesn't... so you can't prove it does!" Same with your logic of "Just because you don't have 100,00 sample throws from 10 different people doesn't mean I'm not right!" Math and facts don't lie. The math shows other people have no affect. Logic shows this as well, but we rule that out because "logic" can be argued, whereas math cannot.
With what you're saying above, people tend to throw at "biased groups" of numbers. PLEASE EXPLAIN how this is possible with fair dice and random rolls? How can the guy to my left POSSIBLY be biased towards 4 if he has fair diced and random rolls? Because he wore a blue shirt today? What if he wore a red shirt? lol you're just talking in gibberish.
P.S. PLEASE do link to a video of someone being able to control a dice throw and hit the number they specify "CONSISTENTLY." Even I could make a video saying "8" then just simply try until I get an 8 and cut that in as the next throw... or make 1 uncut video (over and over and over) until I finally get it. Show me a video of someone saying "I'm going to throw twenty 8's in a row" then doing it. I won't hold my breath, because you can't, because no such video exists. No one who's ever believed in dice influence has ever shown a mathematical difference to a "random" roller in any kind of proof/video.
It is not me with "beliefs." I have math... Which is a factual correct answer. It's you who has "beliefs" such as the guy to your right is biased towards a group of numbers on a random throw. Please go wikipedia the word "random."
With what you're saying above, people tend to throw at "biased groups" of numbers. PLEASE EXPLAIN how this is possible with fair dice and random rolls? How can the guy to my left POSSIBLY be biased towards 4 if he has fair diced and random rolls? Because he wore a blue shirt today? What if he wore a red shirt? lol you're just talking in gibberish.
P.S. PLEASE do link to a video of someone being able to control a dice throw and hit the number they specify "CONSISTENTLY." Even I could make a video saying "8" then just simply try until I get an 8 and cut that in as the next throw... or make 1 uncut video (over and over and over) until I finally get it. Show me a video of someone saying "I'm going to throw twenty 8's in a row" then doing it. I won't hold my breath, because you can't, because no such video exists. No one who's ever believed in dice influence has ever shown a mathematical difference to a "random" roller in any kind of proof/video.
It is not me with "beliefs." I have math... Which is a factual correct answer. It's you who has "beliefs" such as the guy to your right is biased towards a group of numbers on a random throw. Please go wikipedia the word "random."
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
July 15th, 2016 at 1:46:50 PM
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Time for a Put Your Money Where Your Mouth Is Challenge
1) We meet in person... in Vegas, or wherever.
2) You will use a fictitious bankroll of 10,000 "units"
3) You will flat bet the pass line for 25,000 rolls. We would have to agree on an average time per roll as obviously time is of the essence, though I wouldn't want to "rush" you. So however fast you're willing to throw. This wager would likely take about 10 hours per day for about a week, pending how fast you throw... Though I'm willing to make it worth your time as I'm willing to wager just about any amount you want to put up. $10k? $25k? $50k? $10k is the minimum for a week of my time.
4) You can make 3-4-5 odds bets if you'd like.
5) You can play any other bets you'd like up to 5 units. Figuring your average bet at a real table being say $10, this would mean placing $50 on the 6 or 8, or $50 on a hard way, which is more than likely FAR MORE than you ever regularly do (5x, not $50). Even if you bet $50 normally, then this would be the same as dropping $250 on 6 or 8, or $250 on a hard way.
6) If you go broke, you lose. Should be nearly impossible to go broke if you're betting 1 "unit" out of a 10,000 "unit" bankroll... Less you want to play the other wagers a bunch. But hey, you never lose, so this shouldn't even be a concern.
7) We will get a mutually agreed 3rd party to play the roll of the PIT, for "no roll" calls, etc, and to also hold the money.
8) You are allowed to forfeit the bet at any time. If you do not throw within our agreed upon time (with the mutual judge deciding this to allow for emergencies/etc) to try to drag out the event, you lose.
9) If you win, I will make a video publicly shaming myself for not believing you, and denounce math as my champion. If you lose, you must make a video publicly shaming yourself for believing in voodoo and announcing math as the one true champion in the gambling world.
- If you're "really" serious about this I'm willing to make 6 figure wagers.
- For a guy who claims to NEVER lose I don't see how you wouldn't take this bet.
- After playing so much you "must" know your biased numbers?
- "Almost" anything you want, that doesn't affect the random outcome of the roll (which similar to a casino must hit the back wall). So bring all your NON-7-OUT friends to "stand around" the table and watch. With their "good luck" HOW CAN YOU LOSE?
I believe you can't beat the game. You believe you can. Put your money where your mouth is, or leave your beliefs be.
1) We meet in person... in Vegas, or wherever.
2) You will use a fictitious bankroll of 10,000 "units"
3) You will flat bet the pass line for 25,000 rolls. We would have to agree on an average time per roll as obviously time is of the essence, though I wouldn't want to "rush" you. So however fast you're willing to throw. This wager would likely take about 10 hours per day for about a week, pending how fast you throw... Though I'm willing to make it worth your time as I'm willing to wager just about any amount you want to put up. $10k? $25k? $50k? $10k is the minimum for a week of my time.
4) You can make 3-4-5 odds bets if you'd like.
5) You can play any other bets you'd like up to 5 units. Figuring your average bet at a real table being say $10, this would mean placing $50 on the 6 or 8, or $50 on a hard way, which is more than likely FAR MORE than you ever regularly do (5x, not $50). Even if you bet $50 normally, then this would be the same as dropping $250 on 6 or 8, or $250 on a hard way.
6) If you go broke, you lose. Should be nearly impossible to go broke if you're betting 1 "unit" out of a 10,000 "unit" bankroll... Less you want to play the other wagers a bunch. But hey, you never lose, so this shouldn't even be a concern.
7) We will get a mutually agreed 3rd party to play the roll of the PIT, for "no roll" calls, etc, and to also hold the money.
8) You are allowed to forfeit the bet at any time. If you do not throw within our agreed upon time (with the mutual judge deciding this to allow for emergencies/etc) to try to drag out the event, you lose.
9) If you win, I will make a video publicly shaming myself for not believing you, and denounce math as my champion. If you lose, you must make a video publicly shaming yourself for believing in voodoo and announcing math as the one true champion in the gambling world.
- If you're "really" serious about this I'm willing to make 6 figure wagers.
- For a guy who claims to NEVER lose I don't see how you wouldn't take this bet.
- After playing so much you "must" know your biased numbers?
- "Almost" anything you want, that doesn't affect the random outcome of the roll (which similar to a casino must hit the back wall). So bring all your NON-7-OUT friends to "stand around" the table and watch. With their "good luck" HOW CAN YOU LOSE?
I believe you can't beat the game. You believe you can. Put your money where your mouth is, or leave your beliefs be.
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
July 15th, 2016 at 3:16:43 PM
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July 15th, 2016 at 3:28:41 PM
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Quote: RomesIf you're "really" serious about this I'm willing to make 6 figure wagers
whoa!
pass the popcorn indeed!
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
July 15th, 2016 at 4:30:24 PM
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There no point in passing the popcorn. Nobody will ever back their kooky theories with $100, let alone 6 figures. The excuses and lame justifications can be humorous for a few seconds, but that's the extent of the entertainment.
July 15th, 2016 at 6:55:16 PM
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I love when people think others can't shoot. If you know they are throwing lots of 7s then play the dont when they shoot. Problem solved.
Expect the worst and you will never be disappointed.
I AM NOT PART OF GWAE RADIO SHOW
July 15th, 2016 at 6:57:29 PM
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I've been loving wov the past few days, so many prop bets flying around.
"Man Babes" #AxelFabulous
July 15th, 2016 at 7:27:07 PM
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Quote: JoelDezeTable.. No.
People.. Yes.
Dice.. Yes.
How about prayer?
'Emergencies' have always been the pretext on which the safeguards of individual liberty have been eroded.
July 16th, 2016 at 3:58:56 AM
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I have had an open invitation for anyone to join me anytime since the moment I arrived here. That has never changed.
“It’s a dog eat dog world out there and I’m wearing milkbone underwear .” – Norm Peterson
July 16th, 2016 at 4:09:44 AM
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Went last night and made $1,400. My buddy Jorge, who has never played before met me there. He started with $40 and ended with $998.
When math doesn't work everyone here will simply call it a string of luck. Well that luck has stretched over 4 months and many many hours of playing. Most of you can't see the smallest of details that can't be measured in a live setting. That is why you will continue to live in your boxes where it is safe in your minds.
When math doesn't work everyone here will simply call it a string of luck. Well that luck has stretched over 4 months and many many hours of playing. Most of you can't see the smallest of details that can't be measured in a live setting. That is why you will continue to live in your boxes where it is safe in your minds.
“It’s a dog eat dog world out there and I’m wearing milkbone underwear .” – Norm Peterson
July 16th, 2016 at 4:25:47 AM
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Quote: IbeatyouracesIt's not opinion, it's fact.
No, it is an opinion. Your logic is tested on paper and not on person. I know every bit of the math behind craps and the 7 never matches the probability for me. That is a fact. Over a 4-month period.
Your rebuttal is easy to see. Wait another 4 months. Wait another year. When a year comes up it will be wait another year again.
Math has to be accountable on multiple levels. You can build a game based on probability and APs will still take advantage of those games. Everyone here knows there are APs in many games. But, talk about craps and suddenly APs don't exist. Go figure.
“It’s a dog eat dog world out there and I’m wearing milkbone underwear .” – Norm Peterson
July 16th, 2016 at 4:36:55 AM
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Do you keep track of each roll of the dice you make? How many 7's (and 2's and 3's and 4's and...) have you rolled? How far away are these results from expectation? Have you done the math to determine your rolls are doing what you think they should be doing, and not luck/random? ie: Have you done a chi-squared test or any kind of test / math to determine there is something going out [which isn't random tosses]?
How about for other players at the table?
Do you set/control/influence/etc. the dice -- is that where you're coming from? Or are you saying there's something extra-ordinary (ie: not dice setting/influencing) that's making you and others throw different "ranges"?
How about for other players at the table?
Do you set/control/influence/etc. the dice -- is that where you're coming from? Or are you saying there's something extra-ordinary (ie: not dice setting/influencing) that's making you and others throw different "ranges"?
July 16th, 2016 at 4:49:40 AM
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This is why the world has terrorists to some extent- you just can't convince some people that there are not 700 virgins waiting for them in heaven if they kill in the name of god
No longer hiring, don’t ask because I won’t hire you either
July 16th, 2016 at 7:25:39 AM
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Quote: WizardofnothingThis is why the world has terrorists to some extent- you just can't convince some people that there are not 700 virgins waiting for them in heaven if they kill in the name of god
Terrorism has nothing to do with craps. It is almost impossible to have discussion and open debate on a specific topic without someone throwing ignorant statements into the mix. Either stay on topic or move on. I shouldn't even have to respond to this comment.
“It’s a dog eat dog world out there and I’m wearing milkbone underwear .” – Norm Peterson
July 16th, 2016 at 9:07:29 AM
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I probably love craps as much as anyone and have played A LOT! I have seen every kind of roll imaginable and have personally had 2 1 hour rolls throwing fairly random. I have yet to see a dice setter do me any favors really. I have though, a lot times had some young girl who never has played in her life and she will go through 2 stick changes! As much as i would love to believe in going to say not possible. But by all means if you can prove other wise come out do vegas lets team up!........we can find empty tables all the time where you can have the dice for hours, and if what you say is true......IM RETIRED!
Good judgment comes from experience, and a lot of that comes from bad judgment...<Will Rogers>
July 16th, 2016 at 9:33:16 AM
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Quote: JoelDezeNo, it is an opinion. Your logic is tested on paper and not on person. I know every bit of the math behind craps and the 7 never matches the probability for me. That is a fact. Over a 4-month period.
Your rebuttal is easy to see. Wait another 4 months. Wait another year. When a year comes up it will be wait another year again.
Math has to be accountable on multiple levels. You can build a game based on probability and APs will still take advantage of those games. Everyone here knows there are APs in many games. But, talk about craps and suddenly APs don't exist. Go figure.
My royal flushes are WELL exceeding the math over the last 6 months. Doesn't mean squat. Let's talk after billions of outcomes. Four months is meaningless in anything. DI is a fantasy and a fraud perpetrated to sell classes.
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
July 16th, 2016 at 12:17:34 PM
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Quote: JoelDezeAbout 3 weeks ago a black gentleman came to the table and he was close to 7 feet tall. . . . He could almost lean in and easily drop the dice with his motion. He was doing well until the dealers kept requesting that he not lean forward too much. This is just one "aspect advantage" that takes place on the table.
No, one has responded to this point that the OP made. In Craps, why do casinos restrict people from leaning over the table as they throw the dice? Are they concerned about the potential of the thrower to influence the outcome of the dice? Or is it that the thrower will momentarily obscure the view of the table from the overhead surveillance cameras, creating a jeopardy of someone making a change to the chip stacks on the table?
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
July 16th, 2016 at 1:03:49 PM
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Joel, WoN made a proposition to you to make a real money bet with him. Since you are still actively involved in this thread can you respond in some fashion? Thanks.
July 16th, 2016 at 1:08:22 PM
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Quote: gordonm888No, one has responded to this point that the OP made. In Craps, why do casinos restrict people from leaning over the table as they throw the dice? Are they concerned about the potential of the thrower to influence the outcome of the dice? Or is it that the thrower will momentarily obscure the view of the table from the overhead surveillance cameras, creating a jeopardy of someone making a change to the chip stacks on the table?
2 guesses as to what was seen:
*On a shorter table, a tall person with long arms can lean in to right of stick and create a very short roll that still hits the back wall. The roll can avoid the rubber diamonds of the wall more easily. I can see not allowing it.
*I recently was upbraided for leaning across stick when throwing from left of stick. I know for sure I was not hitting that dealer, but his "personal space" probably was being violated alright; perhaps contact undetectable to me took place. In any case the box woman piped up about it. If member Doc is reading, he was a witness. Was this what was seen?
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
July 16th, 2016 at 1:27:03 PM
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Quote: SOOPOOJoel, WoN made a proposition to you to make a real money bet with him. Since you are still actively involved in this thread can you respond in some fashion? Thanks.
I have mentioned time and time again where I play and that anyone is welcome to join me to see for themselves. The only time I visit Vegas is around week 8 or 9 of football season. My bank roll is reserved for football wagers during that time. I don't mind playing craps during that time but football is priority #1.
Off season I don't mind playing craps. It's fun and I win money. I don't claim and I've never cllaimed to throw a large amount of cash down on craps. The largest bank roll I've kept for craps play is $5k. The largest bank roll I've kept for weekend football betting is $75k. There's a big difference.
I don't really care if anyone believes me or not. Believe what you want to believe. I'm having fun playing my game and winning some money while doing it.
I have absolutely zero interest spending a week of my time to sit at a table for hours upon hours rolling dice. I'm not a young person anymore. I have more money and less time. Time is more precious to me than money.
However, my offer still stands. Anyone is welcome to join me at any time. When I come out to Vegas during football season I'll post dates. I'm more than happy to meet up with others once I get my wagers in.
“It’s a dog eat dog world out there and I’m wearing milkbone underwear .” – Norm Peterson
July 16th, 2016 at 1:31:50 PM
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Quote: JoelDeze
I have absolutely zero interest spending a week of my time to sit at a table for hours upon hours rolling dice. I'm not a young person anymore. I have more money and less time. Time is more precious to me than money.
However, my offer still stands. Anyone is welcome to join me at any time. When I come out to Vegas during football season I'll post dates. I'm more than happy to meet up with others once I get my wagers in.
Fair answer. I'll be in Vegas last week of October. If that's when you will be in town we can meet....
July 16th, 2016 at 1:35:27 PM
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I didn't go back and add up all your wins you claim to have had (perhaps you don't mention all the losses)
But it seems as if a 5k BR would be small compared to the amounts you are indicating..if you were confidant in your abilities in caps. You get where I'm going with this.
But it seems as if a 5k BR would be small compared to the amounts you are indicating..if you were confidant in your abilities in caps. You get where I'm going with this.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
July 17th, 2016 at 5:26:21 AM
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I wouldn't recommend dice control or as a way to get an edge. I wouldn't try it myself. I think there are better ways to get an edge. But, as to anyone who thinks it's not possible to do this; I disagree with that. Blackjack Hall of Famer Peter Griffin (I'm pretty sure it was in his book "Extra Stuff Gambling Ramblings") said that he was also a disbeliever. And then an expert dice thrower gave him an extremely impressive demonstration and he would no longer say that it's not feasible. For those who don't know, Peter Griffin is a major contributor to blackjack literature. Unfortunately I lost this book but I would guess that some APs still have this book and can verify what I just said.
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
July 17th, 2016 at 9:58:34 AM
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Unless he had a PhD in physics, his small sample size of what he witnessed is meaningless.
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
July 17th, 2016 at 11:24:18 AM
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Quote: IbeatyouracesUnless he had a PhD in physics, his small sample size of what he witnessed is meaningless.
He was a Professor of Mathematics at Cal State. I think he would have known if the sample size he witnessed was likely to be telling or not.
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
July 18th, 2016 at 4:22:19 AM
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Quote: WizardofnothingThis is why the world has terrorists to some extent- you just can't convince some people that there are not 700 virgins waiting for them in heaven if they kill in the name of god
Lol. Gamblers are truly an amazing bunch. I was playing blackjack the other day, and someone that clearly didn't know how to play hit his hard 14 against a dealer 6 and busted. An Asian woman got upset at him for "taking the dealer's bust card" (another ridiculous belief), and the dealer chastised him as well when she made her hand. He didn't really understand what had happened, so I explained to him that as a general rule, he'd do much better if he doesn't hit any hand he could bust on if the dealer is showing a 6 or less - leaving out the bust card nonsense. His buddy immediately said "that's right for the most part, but if you look up the odds, you'll see that's NOT the case when a 5 is showing". 4 shining examples of incorrect strategy/beliefs about the game came from 4 of the 5 people at the table, including the dealer, in a single hand.
People believe whatever BS sounds good to them, and it becomes fact in their minds. Craps reinforces this kind of thinking because it gives the illusion of control. No one is ever going to get this guy to believe that he doesn't have some special ability to roll the dice in a way that favors him, or convince him that those less "skilled" than him have an equal chance. Everyone in this thread is wasting their breath.
July 19th, 2016 at 3:50:41 AM
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Another blackjack legend, Stanford Wong (wonging it) believed dice control is feasible and wrote a book about it, "Wong on Dice."
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
July 19th, 2016 at 8:00:33 AM
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From just my educated guess on his postings he's got to be up like $20-30k "supposedly" from trips.Quote: AxelWolfI didn't go back and add up all your wins you claim to have had (perhaps you don't mention all the losses)...
OH BTW GUYS - I went last night and made $468,312 playing craps by NOT controlling the dice and winging them as hard as I could. Thus I submit this as 100% PROOF that non-dice control is a winning game! (this is what you sound like to us Joel)
For someone so "confident" and sure of his abilities, it strikes me as NON-AP to turn down such a large wager on just that, your "abilities." All the proof I need.
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
July 19th, 2016 at 8:02:47 AM
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Or a notable person of his stature capitalized on something non-provable with a large audience. Perhaps he does believe, perhaps not, but how much do you think the book made? I still love his books/etc, just think that one squeaked in with the others =p.Quote: lilredroosterAnother blackjack legend, Stanford Wong (wonging it) believed dice control is feasible and wrote a book about it, "Wong on Dice."
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
July 19th, 2016 at 10:33:12 AM
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Quote: RomesFrom just my educated guess on his postings he's got to be up like $20-30k "supposedly" from trips.
OH BTW GUYS - I went last night and made $468,312 playing craps by NOT controlling the dice and winging them as hard as I could. Thus I submit this as 100% PROOF that non-dice control is a winning game! (this is what you sound like to us Joel)
For someone so "confident" and sure of his abilities, it strikes me as NON-AP to turn down such a large wager on just that, your "abilities." All the proof I need.
No, I am winning moderately more than I lose. Some nights I have big wins and some nights I have medium losses. My biggest two win weeks are $5,100 and $4,100. My biggest two loss weeks are $2,300 and $1,900. I do not play the same amount of time each week. Sometimes I play twice a week. Sometimes I play four times a week. Lately, I've been playing more often. I've been dividing my time between Craps and Blackjack (70%/30%). I've gone down around $2k now and am sitting about +$12.8k.
I don't wing the dice. I practice at home and I practice at tables. I try to find the most open table I can so I can get more practice turns in. I'm no artist but I am a perfectionist. I'm very competitive and try to improve everything I do. That includes rolling dice. I tend to lose slowly at full tables over time because I'm just not patient enough to wait 10 turns for the dice to come back to me. I also don't like to play the DPL or DC. Lately, I'm changing my strategy to play more DPL and DC while waiting for my roll.
I am confident and I have to be confident. There's no sense rolling the dice and tossing any amount of money on the table if you aren't. As for turning down a wager, what do I have to prove to you? Nothing. You have zero control over anything I do in my life and no amount of goading is going to change that fact. I don't care if you believe me or not. What I say about what happens to me when I visit the casino is fact. It's not debatable. It unnerves you to think that there may be someone out there that can do something you can't. I would suggest you getting used to it. The sooner you realize that there are more talented people in this world than you, the sooner you can get back to retuning that commodore vic-20 inside your head. Climb out of that inconsolable paradigm you call your life and catch up to the modern world. It moves a little faster than you think. You remind me of the Sicilian in the "Princess Bride" that shouts in a lisp, "It's Inconceivable!"
“It’s a dog eat dog world out there and I’m wearing milkbone underwear .” – Norm Peterson
July 19th, 2016 at 11:41:16 AM
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Oh, but you do. You have something to prove to the entire forums if you're going to come in here and make wild un-mathematical claims. The majority of these forums (thankfully) believe in math and more/less like to see "real" proof... Not "hey guys I won $2k tonight!" That's not proof of anything. That was the point of my "Hey guys I made $480,000 tonight!" It's zero proof. There's only one proof, math. You claim A, I claim B, there's a way we can settle it and surprise surprise suddenly "you don't care." Just like all the others...Quote: JoelDeze...As for turning down a wager, what do I have to prove to you? Nothing...
Wrong again. MATH is not debatable. Your stories, are. They are just that, stories with no mathematical backing or basis.Quote: JoelDeze...I don't care if you believe me or not. What I say about what happens to me when I visit the casino is fact. It's not debatable.
lol trying to turn it in to a pissing contest? It must unnerve you that you're down so much money that no one believes your stories when you come here with zero proof. I could care less if you win or lose... I just care about the truth.Quote: JoelDezeIt unnerves you to think that there may be someone out there that can do something you can't...
Yes, you've got me. Your unbelievable talent (literally unbelievable) is SO FAR superior to mine. That's why I'm going to be up well more than 6 figures from AP'ing this year. That's why I also hold down a full time job as an engineer. Shit. I need to get my life together guys. My world is a lie...Quote: JoelDezeI would suggest you getting used to it. The sooner you realize that there are more talented people in this world than you, the sooner you can get back to retuning that commodore vic-20 inside your head. Climb out of that inconsolable paradigm you call your life and catch up to the modern world. It moves a little faster than you think. You remind me of the Sicilian in the "Princess Bride" that shouts in a lisp, "It's Inconceivable!"
...at least I have math, and she loves me <3.
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
July 19th, 2016 at 12:17:47 PM
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Quote: Romes
Yes, you've got me. Your unbelievable talent (literally unbelievable) is SO FAR superior to mine. That's why I'm going to be up well more than 6 figures from AP'ing this year. That's why I also hold down a full time job as an engineer. Shit. I need to get my life together guys. My world is a lie...
...at least I have math, and she loves me <3.
I have mentioned time and again that I have an open invitation. I even mentioned that I would post my Vegas dates during football season. I also mentioned that I would post my win/loss results. I just need to request them.
I don't know what type of proof you are after. The end results aren't going to satisfy your logic. I am a math person and I can see why it is difficult for you. If it makes you feel better I can give you a hug.
“It’s a dog eat dog world out there and I’m wearing milkbone underwear .” – Norm Peterson
July 19th, 2016 at 12:30:02 PM
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Quote: RomesOh, but you do. You have something to prove to the entire forums if you're going to come in here and make wild un-mathematical claims. The majority of these forums (thankfully) believe in math and more/less like to see "real" proof... Not "hey guys I won $2k tonight!" That's not proof of anything. . . .
Wrong again. MATH is not debatable. Your stories, are. They are just that, stories with no mathematical backing or basis.
Romes, you are one of my favorite posters and I agree with almost everything you post. But the claim of Dice Control is not refuted by math. If anything, the scientific objections to dice control arise out of physics and the objections are not fundamental, per se. The issue is whether microscopic variations in the throw of the dice (or the environmental conditions) make such a large difference in the outcome of the dice roll that the outcomes are 'essentially random' no matter how much a human being tries to control the throwing motion. I've seen one scientific journal article that claims that dice throws are '"essentially random" and I suspect that's right - but I'm personally not 100% sure.
I imagine you also are challenging the statistical significance of any interpreted correlations in the OP's data. But even here, I would challenge your statements.
There are two extremes for establishing statistical significance:
- A very large number of trials, so that even small influences can be detected with high confidence.
- A small number of trials with an outcome that is highly non-random.
For example, if a gambler can throw a single die and roll the same number 10 times in a row I think you would agree he can control the dice. This sequence is so extreme that if you observed it once it would be highly significant evidence that dice control exists.
So, we do not always need a large number of trials to create statistical confidence that dice throws are non-random. However, I agree that when the departure from randomness in the dice throw is small, i.e. when a small edge exists, then it will usually (but not always) require a large number of trials to establish confidence that it exists.
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
July 19th, 2016 at 12:57:57 PM
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I just want to know, this is a question.
Can I send my money now to Joel and have it doubled during the fall's NFL season?
Simple question, just 2F
Can I send my money now to Joel and have it doubled during the fall's NFL season?
Simple question, just 2F
Youuuuuu MIGHT be a 'rascal' if.......(nevermind ;-)...2F
July 19th, 2016 at 1:38:01 PM
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Appreciate the compliment gordon, but I will too disagree with you here. There is literally only 1 reason it hasn't be yet refuted... No "successful" Dice Controller has stepped up to the plate to record a large enough sampling size of throws. Anytime there's every been a bet made with 25k throws, 50k throws, or ideally 100k throws... No one will ever do it. "A moment ago it was like a night at the Apollo in here, now it's quiet as a mothaf*ckin church!" Just because something hasn't been proven false doesn't inversely make it true.Quote: gordonm888Romes, you are one of my favorite posters and I agree with almost everything you post. But the claim of Dice Control is not refuted by math....
There's exact replicas of us on the first planet just outside of our telescopes vision... Hey, you can't prove I'm wrong. Sometime people treat this as "then I must be right" when in reality it's "well, no, I can't mathematically prove it yet... but let's be honest."
I disagree. The very first thing I'd say is "Where's the proof? Do you have video?" etc. That's like me telling you right now, hey I can roll 18 yo's in a row on demand... I just proved dice control! When in reality it's just a flat out lie. I never rolled 18 yo's in a row and I couldn't if I wanted to. Yet if I bring that statement to the forums and post it where people "want" to believe everyone is being truthful then that's an issue. This is why most anyone who comes here with "wild" claims often end up leaving one way or another because they bring absolutely no proof with their story.. just as our OP.Quote: gordonm888For example, if a gambler can throw a single die and roll the same number 10 times in a row I think you would agree he can control the dice.
Now if there were un-edited, un-tainted, video evidence of someone rolling 18 yo's in a row (with fair dice)... Then I would believe that person could control the dice if they announced prior they were going to do that. Like most math people I'm entirely willing to change my view of something, given the right evidence and reasoning.
If you're going to focus on the shorter number of throws and higher number of standard deviations, this is ALL the more reason it MUST come with evidence. Again, it's literally the same as me saying "I made $480,000 in craps last night playing $10 pass line single odds!" It's nothing more than a short term story with no evidence and yet I'm being told repeatedly "it's the truth" when the summation of what the OP's posted in multiple threads is quite easy to disseminate as bullshit. Hell, his first thread was more/less to promote his NFL picks.
For goodness sakes.. If you can control the dice why wouldn't you make $100,000 from me??? Instead it's always "eh, I've got nothing to prove all the sudden." When one side is willing to put their money where their mouth is and the other isn't, that should speak for itself.
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
July 19th, 2016 at 1:50:08 PM
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The point gordon was making is that you don't necessarily need 100k trials to determine if you have an edge if the results are so non-random (ie: out of the ordinary). And sometimes you may need more than 100k trials.
If a roulette dealer said he could land the ball on 00 (or within 2 spaces on each side), 95% of the time after seeing him do this 18 out of 20 times, would you say, "I want 99,980 more trials!" ?
Now if a roulette dealer said he could do that but 15% of the time (when you expect it to occur 5/38'ths of the time or 13.15% of the time), and after 100 spins he did it 15 times......then yeah, you're going to want more proof than that.
If a roulette dealer said he could land the ball on 00 (or within 2 spaces on each side), 95% of the time after seeing him do this 18 out of 20 times, would you say, "I want 99,980 more trials!" ?
Now if a roulette dealer said he could do that but 15% of the time (when you expect it to occur 5/38'ths of the time or 13.15% of the time), and after 100 spins he did it 15 times......then yeah, you're going to want more proof than that.
July 19th, 2016 at 1:55:24 PM
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This is why my original bet was only 25k throws... not 100k.
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
July 19th, 2016 at 1:59:18 PM
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And how many throws can you get off in an hour? You don't think that's a bit ridiculous?
July 19th, 2016 at 2:19:10 PM
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Not at all for a potential $100k bet. I stated in the offer it would take a couple days at least... Is $100k in 1 week not worth it?Quote: RSAnd how many throws can you get off in an hour? You don't think that's a bit ridiculous?
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
July 19th, 2016 at 2:51:40 PM
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Quote: RomesOr a notable person of his stature capitalized on something non-provable with a large audience. Perhaps he does believe, perhaps not, but how much do you think the book made? I still love his books/etc, just think that one squeaked in with the others =p.
How much did he make from that book? I don't know for a fact but I would guess very little. I was in the book business for many years. Very few, other than best selling writers make good money from writing and/or publishing books. If you're not familiar with the book business (and maybe you are, I'm not saying that you are not), you would be shocked at how little some authors make especially considering the hundreds of hours many put into writing their books. For a great many it works out to be way less than minimum wage. Wong is well known but mainly by a rather small group of people in a rather esoteric undertaking. The book "Wong on Dice" did not attract much attention. He probably did better than most because he was very wise about self publishing and marketing his books; but still not a lot.
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
July 19th, 2016 at 3:35:42 PM
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One thing here is absolutely 100% being missed: for a bet, the number of trials can be any size
Why challenge someone to a number of trials that 'ain't happening'?
The Wizard has never demanded that, and he always wants these bets. Why? because of his motto, "not whether you win or lose but whether you had a good bet" [or something like that]
I'd go on about why ... but surely a group of gamblers already gets this! Quit demanding so many trials! You still have a good bet [assuming you are right]
Why challenge someone to a number of trials that 'ain't happening'?
The Wizard has never demanded that, and he always wants these bets. Why? because of his motto, "not whether you win or lose but whether you had a good bet" [or something like that]
I'd go on about why ... but surely a group of gamblers already gets this! Quit demanding so many trials! You still have a good bet [assuming you are right]
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
July 20th, 2016 at 1:47:28 AM
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OP's claim seems to be that "losers" who follow him from table to table throw more sevens than would be expected because they fling the dice haphazardly?
Whereas OP has the ability to control the dice when he is shooting; only it's his lack of patience when others are rolling that is keeping him from winning the multi-millions of dollars anyone who could control dice with even a 1% edge could expect?
So then the solution is obvious. OP should simply bet don't pass and 6x his flat bet on the odds every time a point is established as long as he is not shooting. Then when those uneducated shooters throw the dice like "ice cubes at a frat party" (is that a thing?), he should clean up. And as a bonus, when it's his turn to shoot, he can control the dice!
I must admit that my own craps play has been revolutionized in recent years. Whereas before I never set the dice, and always asked the stickman to dump the bowl when a die rolls off the table, now I set the dice religiously and insist on "same die" every time.
These measures have the benefits of slowing the game down, keeping the comp meter running, and making me look like a moron, which is also good for the comp rating.
Sometimes I even sit out a few shooters because they just throw the dice too haphazardly for me to bet on. I find this improves my expectation at a rate exactly equal to my average bet times the house edge.
Whereas OP has the ability to control the dice when he is shooting; only it's his lack of patience when others are rolling that is keeping him from winning the multi-millions of dollars anyone who could control dice with even a 1% edge could expect?
So then the solution is obvious. OP should simply bet don't pass and 6x his flat bet on the odds every time a point is established as long as he is not shooting. Then when those uneducated shooters throw the dice like "ice cubes at a frat party" (is that a thing?), he should clean up. And as a bonus, when it's his turn to shoot, he can control the dice!
I must admit that my own craps play has been revolutionized in recent years. Whereas before I never set the dice, and always asked the stickman to dump the bowl when a die rolls off the table, now I set the dice religiously and insist on "same die" every time.
These measures have the benefits of slowing the game down, keeping the comp meter running, and making me look like a moron, which is also good for the comp rating.
Sometimes I even sit out a few shooters because they just throw the dice too haphazardly for me to bet on. I find this improves my expectation at a rate exactly equal to my average bet times the house edge.
