Will Gold 'Bubble' Burst?
December 19th, 2013 at 12:03:03 PM
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Quote: BozThe only people that made money of gold are the advertisers on Rush, Beck and others who sell gold at 100% markups to paranoid stupid people.
Fixed your post :)
People like that who can't be bothered to do basic research are at risk of being scammed in any area of investing.
But I think it would be a stretch to suggest that investors haven't profited from gold. As the chart shows, the last decade or so has been mostly up:
The biggest ETF holding gold is GLD (with $34 billion in assets). GLD became available 9 years ago at around 44. Today's price is 115. That's a better gain than the broad stock market for the period.
But as I noted, the gold mining stocks have been more problematic. The XAU gold & silver stock index is now down over 65% from its 2011 high, whereas spot gold is down less than 40%.
"Scientists tell us that the fastest animal on earth, with a top speed of 120 feet per second, is a cow that has been dropped out of a helicopter."
December 19th, 2013 at 12:11:25 PM
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I only hold physical gold and silver bars, in a small allocation in relation to my overall net worth*. It's the conspiracy-theorist, apocalypse-predicting side of my brain that contributes to this. GLD or other ETFs and mining company stocks are not relevant to me. I just want to be able to barter for a chicken in the post-apocalyptic financial meltdown. I do need to finally get my handgun, so I can protect my gold stash. That's been on the back burner for a while.
Best-case scenario, I sell them off for cash in my retirement, and they have pretty much held their value vs. inflation. I'm not in it to speculate. The Wiz did kill me by unloading his 2 American Eagles near the height of the boom ($1710/toz spot price), but I knew that was risky. My next purchase after that was at $1200/toz, and my first purchase was around $900. I'll hold off for a while for my next purchase, but it will probably be silver, and I'll probably wait for the price to get down into the mid-high-teens.
*Currently 5.66%, varies with the price of stocks and metals, obvi, and whether I've made a recent purchase.
Best-case scenario, I sell them off for cash in my retirement, and they have pretty much held their value vs. inflation. I'm not in it to speculate. The Wiz did kill me by unloading his 2 American Eagles near the height of the boom ($1710/toz spot price), but I knew that was risky. My next purchase after that was at $1200/toz, and my first purchase was around $900. I'll hold off for a while for my next purchase, but it will probably be silver, and I'll probably wait for the price to get down into the mid-high-teens.
*Currently 5.66%, varies with the price of stocks and metals, obvi, and whether I've made a recent purchase.
"So drink gamble eat f***, because one day you will be dust." -ontariodealer
December 19th, 2013 at 12:16:37 PM
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Quote: AcesAndEightsI do need to finally get my handgun, so I can protect my gold stash.
Now there's a good investment. I mean, if you want something with a value that only goes up, even if you use it, and sees a jump of 300% whenever the Dems hold political power...
Just don't invest in ammo. I have enough problems as it is =p
The opinions of this moderator are for entertainment purposes only.
December 19th, 2013 at 12:19:57 PM
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Quote: AcesAndEightsI only hold physical gold and silver bars, I just want to be able to barter for a chicken in the post-apocalyptic financial meltdown. .
I'm guessing gold and silver will have no real value in a post-apocalyptic financial meltdown......now the chickens will be valuable, very valuable. Cows could become the worlds reserve currency.
Each day is better than the next
December 19th, 2013 at 12:32:18 PM
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Quote: treetopbuddyI'm guessing gold and silver will have no real value in a post-apocalyptic financial meltdown......now the chickens will be valuable, very valuable. Cows could become the worlds reserve currency.
Yes I've had this debate ad nauseum with my friends. My view is that gold and silver were used for barter since the dawn of time, and in a time of chaos and absence of any government currency, I believe they would return to that role. Yes, food, water, TP, drugs, and guns will also be used for barter. You can speculate about the exchange rate or completely disagree and say it would be worthless. No one can "win" that argument as we won't know until it happens.
"So drink gamble eat f***, because one day you will be dust." -ontariodealer
December 19th, 2013 at 12:32:50 PM
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I was hoping to live in the great country of New Utopia, but since Price Lazarus died, I guess I'll have to take my chances here :(
December 19th, 2013 at 12:34:23 PM
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Quote: FaceQuote: AcesAndEightsI do need to finally get my handgun, so I can protect my gold stash.
Now there's a good investment. I mean, if you want something with a value that only goes up, even if you use it, and sees a jump of 300% whenever the Dems hold political power...
Just don't invest in ammo. I have enough problems as it is =p
Yes. Also true. The thing is, if I have a gun, I'm going to want to practice at the range pretty often, especially at the beginning, and I only have time for so many hobbies.
Work, gambling, lifting (3x week for about an hour), playing Ultimate (once my knee heels), skiing in the winter, camping/hiking/backpacking in the summer, getting shit faced with my buddies/fiance...not a lot of time left in the week. Not to mention if we ever have kids...anyway. A Glock and a range membership is still on the list, just need to do it.
"So drink gamble eat f***, because one day you will be dust." -ontariodealer
December 19th, 2013 at 12:34:29 PM
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Quote: AcesAndEightsI only hold physical gold and silver bars, in a small allocation in relation to my overall net worth*. It's the conspiracy-theorist, apocalypse-predicting side of my brain that contributes to this. GLD or other ETFs and mining company stocks are not relevant to me.
I don't do guns. (I would shoot my eye out.) Therefore I don't do physical metals. I figure if the world deteriorates to that point, I'm just screwed.
Admittedly, "paper gold" such as GLD has its own set of risks.
"Scientists tell us that the fastest animal on earth, with a top speed of 120 feet per second, is a cow that has been dropped out of a helicopter."
December 19th, 2013 at 12:36:59 PM
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silver and gold may not be the thing posses in a post nuclear world.....I believe the metals have an affinity for radiation....? Something like that....I'm not looking it up.
Each day is better than the next
January 1st, 2014 at 7:35:43 PM
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Here's how the entire year went down (literally):
The red line shows broad US stock market performance, as indicated by SPY (S&P 500 index fund).
The purple line is "paper" physical gold, as indicated by the GLD fund.
And the green line is the GDX fund, which holds gold mining equities.
I've been adding to my already substantial positions in both GDX and various individual gold mining company stocks. The GDX carnage was remarkable, down over 55%, dramatically extending losses from 2011 and 2012. From this point, the green line must rise 200% to reach the current level of the red line.
Obviously a big decline is not a sufficient reason to declare a stock a bargain, but this situation is a little different. We have an entire industry being priced nearly to go out of business. Dividend suspensions and cuts have been almost daily news, affecting companies including AngloGold, Barrick, Gold Resource, Iamgold and Kinross. These companies are preserving cash to ensure that they remain solvent.
The situation for junior miners is even more dire, offering very little impetus for exploration, and existing sources of supply are diminishing as producers consider shuttering unprofitable mines. These are bullish factors for gold prices, and the economic fundamentals continue to suggest to me that gold should benefit as investors lose confidence in their paper currencies.
I have no association with the mining industry, so my knowledge is very incomplete, but it's a fascinating situation. I think it's worth a look.
The red line shows broad US stock market performance, as indicated by SPY (S&P 500 index fund).
The purple line is "paper" physical gold, as indicated by the GLD fund.
And the green line is the GDX fund, which holds gold mining equities.
I've been adding to my already substantial positions in both GDX and various individual gold mining company stocks. The GDX carnage was remarkable, down over 55%, dramatically extending losses from 2011 and 2012. From this point, the green line must rise 200% to reach the current level of the red line.
Obviously a big decline is not a sufficient reason to declare a stock a bargain, but this situation is a little different. We have an entire industry being priced nearly to go out of business. Dividend suspensions and cuts have been almost daily news, affecting companies including AngloGold, Barrick, Gold Resource, Iamgold and Kinross. These companies are preserving cash to ensure that they remain solvent.
The situation for junior miners is even more dire, offering very little impetus for exploration, and existing sources of supply are diminishing as producers consider shuttering unprofitable mines. These are bullish factors for gold prices, and the economic fundamentals continue to suggest to me that gold should benefit as investors lose confidence in their paper currencies.
I have no association with the mining industry, so my knowledge is very incomplete, but it's a fascinating situation. I think it's worth a look.
"Scientists tell us that the fastest animal on earth, with a top speed of 120 feet per second, is a cow that has been dropped out of a helicopter."
January 1st, 2014 at 9:07:48 PM
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For 1 year OK, gold is a loser. Its value is more long-term... a 10-year chart looks quite different, as does a 35-year chart. It does depend on method of investing and the market. I chose to begin in 2004/5. I'm still holding, because of my initial decision. Sure, I passed up a $1900 exit. But in 10 years I've tripled my original investment as opposed to quadrupled with better timing. A 3-bagger in 10 years is not a bad investment: a 30% loss in 1 year is.
Some people need to reimagine their thinking.
January 2nd, 2014 at 4:11:55 AM
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Quote: gpac1377The GDX carnage was remarkable
They say the volatility is higher by holding the mining companies and not the gold itself. When I was previously invested in gold it was mining companies, a fund [but not an etf]. I did not play it perfectly, but I have to say this was one thing I played very well.
The price of gold is now at a point where it is tempting me to take a position again. I am still thinking it will go down further. However, I will not cry in my beer if I miss out completely by being cautious now.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
January 2nd, 2014 at 5:01:04 AM
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A dollar is not worth a dollar. This statement may seem strange but if one realize what money is, this will make perfect sense.
If you own one once of gold, how much gold do you have? Gold is not in a bubble! The dollar is in a bubble.
Gold and silver is real money, and not tradition like the central bankers will have you believe. Gold and silver are money and fiat is a promise to pay you, not real money. When the sheeple realize this expect discussion about gold being in a bubble to be moot. I hope the price of it keeps going down. This will allow me to convert fiat for more physical ounces.
If you own one once of gold, how much gold do you have? Gold is not in a bubble! The dollar is in a bubble.
Gold and silver is real money, and not tradition like the central bankers will have you believe. Gold and silver are money and fiat is a promise to pay you, not real money. When the sheeple realize this expect discussion about gold being in a bubble to be moot. I hope the price of it keeps going down. This will allow me to convert fiat for more physical ounces.
Edward Snowden is not the criminal, the government is for violating the constitution!
February 1st, 2014 at 8:36:21 AM
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I'll update the chart I posted a few entries above. It showed that 2013 was brutal for gold, and a complete disaster for gold mining shares. Now here's January 2014:
It's a reversal of fortune, but despite the nearly 7% gain in mining stocks, note the jaw-dropping volatility, as the miners plummeted more than 2% on five different trading days. I commented in the stock pick thread that Newmont Mining released an entirely unremarkable earnings report and guidance, yet NEM collapsed 10% Friday. Newmont was never my favorite miner, but I bought it twice yesterday.
It's a reversal of fortune, but despite the nearly 7% gain in mining stocks, note the jaw-dropping volatility, as the miners plummeted more than 2% on five different trading days. I commented in the stock pick thread that Newmont Mining released an entirely unremarkable earnings report and guidance, yet NEM collapsed 10% Friday. Newmont was never my favorite miner, but I bought it twice yesterday.
"Scientists tell us that the fastest animal on earth, with a top speed of 120 feet per second, is a cow that has been dropped out of a helicopter."
March 19th, 2014 at 5:53:04 PM
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Update.
Below is the current year-to-date chart for the S&P 500 (red line), "paper" gold (purple line), and gold mining shares (green line):
The precious metals correction began Monday morning amid relaxation of concerns about Ukraine, and accelerated this afternoon, as Janet Yellen's remarks were perceived to be "hawkish."
For this update, I'll choose one reason why I'm bullish on gold and mining shares. As directed by Congress, the Federal Reserve observes a "dual mandate": (1) maximum employment, and (2) stable prices.
I'm not sure why a central bank should be responsible for employment, so I'll ignore #1. But #2 seems more straightforward. Stable prices. My definition of stable is "unchanged." But I don't have a PhD in Keynesian economics. Here's the Fed's definition of "stable":
http://www.federalreserve.gov/faqs/economy_14400.htm
So the Fed seeks to maintain inflation of at least 2%, because falling prices would be disastrous.
From an investing perspective, this is important because the public has been convinced that inflation is good, benefiting the value of everything you own, but not raising the cost of anything you buy.
You can see it in the reaction to Fed policy, which is accorded tremendous respect. At her press conference today, the questions for Yellen were softballs. Without opposition, there's nothing to stop the Fed from recklessly debasing the currency, and the obvious beneficiary (IMO) is gold.
Below is the current year-to-date chart for the S&P 500 (red line), "paper" gold (purple line), and gold mining shares (green line):
The precious metals correction began Monday morning amid relaxation of concerns about Ukraine, and accelerated this afternoon, as Janet Yellen's remarks were perceived to be "hawkish."
For this update, I'll choose one reason why I'm bullish on gold and mining shares. As directed by Congress, the Federal Reserve observes a "dual mandate": (1) maximum employment, and (2) stable prices.
I'm not sure why a central bank should be responsible for employment, so I'll ignore #1. But #2 seems more straightforward. Stable prices. My definition of stable is "unchanged." But I don't have a PhD in Keynesian economics. Here's the Fed's definition of "stable":
http://www.federalreserve.gov/faqs/economy_14400.htm
So the Fed seeks to maintain inflation of at least 2%, because falling prices would be disastrous.
From an investing perspective, this is important because the public has been convinced that inflation is good, benefiting the value of everything you own, but not raising the cost of anything you buy.
You can see it in the reaction to Fed policy, which is accorded tremendous respect. At her press conference today, the questions for Yellen were softballs. Without opposition, there's nothing to stop the Fed from recklessly debasing the currency, and the obvious beneficiary (IMO) is gold.
"Scientists tell us that the fastest animal on earth, with a top speed of 120 feet per second, is a cow that has been dropped out of a helicopter."
March 20th, 2014 at 6:25:29 AM
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Would you or anyone suggest in buying real gold ? if so why, if not why not?Quote: gpac1377Update.
The precious metals correction began Monday morning amid relaxation of concerns about Ukraine, and accelerated this afternoon, as Janet Yellen's remarks were perceived to be "hawkish."
For this update, I'll choose one reason why I'm bullish on gold and mining shares. As directed by Congress, the Federal Reserve observes a "dual mandate": (1) maximum employment, and (2) stable prices.
I'm not sure why a central bank should be responsible for employment, so I'll ignore #1. But #2 seems more straightforward. Stable prices. My definition of stable is "unchanged." But I don't have a PhD in Keynesian economics. Here's the Fed's definition of "stable":
http://www.federalreserve.gov/faqs/economy_14400.htm
So the Fed seeks to maintain inflation of at least 2%, because falling prices would be disastrous.
From an investing perspective, this is important because the public has been convinced that inflation is good, benefiting the value of everything you own, but not raising the cost of anything you buy.
You can see it in the reaction to Fed policy, which is accorded tremendous respect. At her press conference today, the questions for Yellen were softballs. Without opposition, there's nothing to stop the Fed from recklessly debasing the currency, and the obvious beneficiary (IMO) is gold.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
March 20th, 2014 at 6:51:27 AM
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It seems to have recovered back 6 months
March 20th, 2014 at 6:56:30 AM
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Will the gold bubble burst? Player or Banker? Can anyone really know?
Each day is better than the next
March 20th, 2014 at 7:10:57 AM
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Quote: pacomartin
It seems to have recovered back 6 months
Thanks. That chart appears to be a day or two behind. The spot price touched $1320 overnight, and is now rebounding toward 1330.
"Scientists tell us that the fastest animal on earth, with a top speed of 120 feet per second, is a cow that has been dropped out of a helicopter."
March 20th, 2014 at 7:18:24 AM
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Quote: AxelWolfWould you or anyone suggest in buying real gold ? if so why, if not why not?
I like gold (and silver) at current prices, but I prefer the equities, which are selling at severely distressed prices IMO.
Physical gold is awkward for a lot of reasons. It requires storage and protection, it doesn't earn or pay dividends the way a company does, and it's an easy target for government, which tends to consider gold "unpatriotic." Taxation of gold is already very harsh, and would likely worsen in an economic crisis. Confiscation happened in the 1930s, and could repeat.
Gold mining company shares offer the convenience of stock investing, and should be somewhat more difficult for government to punitively target.
If you do opt for physical exposure, my choice is a closed-end mutual fund: Central Fund of Canada (ticker CEF). It has a well-established history in a relatively safe country, holding both gold and silver, and the current price reflects a 5% discount. Unfortunately, I find the tax situation very confusing, so proceed with caution. I own my shares in an IRA, so there's less headache, but I may be missing out on potential advantages available in a taxable account.
I don't hold any gold in my direct possession.
"Scientists tell us that the fastest animal on earth, with a top speed of 120 feet per second, is a cow that has been dropped out of a helicopter."
March 20th, 2014 at 8:43:42 AM
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Quote: AxelWolfWould you or anyone suggest in buying real gold ? if so why, if not why not?
I own physical gold and silver. I wouldn't exactly recommend it, but I do it to satisfy that part of my brain that can't not predict total financial meltdown within my lifetime. In that circumstance, owning "paper" gold in a online brokerage account isn't going to do much good if the financial system has collapsed. Whereas I could theoretically take my physical metal and barter with someone for food (/me ignores the pointing and laughing). Yes I realize guns and ammunition would probably be more valuable in this situation.
I can pawn it off on the somewhat-more-rational part of my brain by considering a hedge against hyperinflation.
Seriously though, I don't have a lot. Maybe 5% of my net worth (I guess you could say that is a lot). I bought gold at a variety of price points...some around $900/toz, some at $1700/toz, most recently around $1200/toz. I've only purchased Silver twice, once around $12/toz and once around $30/toz. Overall if I were to sell right now, I would make a profit, but that's not the plan.
As to taxation, if you report it honestly it's just another capital gain/loss on Schedule D. But most of my transactions were made in cash, so there's no paper trail. Generally I'm honest on my taxes, but if I were forced to sell right now, I would sell the lots that are underwater, so it would be a capital loss anyway.
As to confiscation, again, very little paper trail. I doubt I would be at the top of the government's list. Also, they would have to find it :).
Best-case scenario, the metal is inherited by my heirs. Second-best-case scenario, I sell it in my waning years to supplement my retirement gambling bankroll (or to buy food/nursing home rent, whatever).
"So drink gamble eat f***, because one day you will be dust." -ontariodealer
March 20th, 2014 at 9:22:26 AM
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Quote: AcesAndEightsAs to taxation, if you report it honestly it's just another capital gain/loss on Schedule D.
Just a note on that. For US investors, gold is classified as a collectible, with a tax rate of 28% on long-term gains, whereas stocks and bonds are taxed at only 15% (or 20% for very high-income earners).
Low-income earners are taxed at lower rates, but collectibles are nevertheless disadvantaged versus stocks & bonds.
The situation affects not only physical gold, but also funds that hold gold, such as GLD.
Here are a couple of cites:
http://rodgers-associates.com/blog/irs-gold-not-an-investment/
http://money.cnn.com/2012/04/03/pf/funds/gold_oil_etfs_taxes.fortune/
"Scientists tell us that the fastest animal on earth, with a top speed of 120 feet per second, is a cow that has been dropped out of a helicopter."
March 20th, 2014 at 9:43:33 AM
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I would think people who live in middle america away from congested big cities(where i live near) would not even think the way I do,
But I envision a catastrophy where I have to load my valuables in my SUV and drive away (ie terrorist attack of SF involving nuclear weopon, and ensuing fallout) would not work out well in our society as it stands now. "the bad guys" knowing that almost every car on the road is loaded with valuables is not a great recipe for me getting to my destination.
I envision traffic at standstill with bands of thugs roaming between cars taking what they want. Not enough police or national guard to monitor every inch of a highway.I imagine "bad guys" in neighboring states laying in wait for a car with license plates from the affected state, knowing there is a good chance of finding gold coins and or jewelery. Out of state cars being broken into at hotels looking for valuables.
I doubt a terrorist would attack Iowa, so the people there might envision a more orderly catastrophy, a more generalized catastophy spread over the entire country where the "bad guys" wouldnt be around them like vultures.
But I envision a catastrophy where I have to load my valuables in my SUV and drive away (ie terrorist attack of SF involving nuclear weopon, and ensuing fallout) would not work out well in our society as it stands now. "the bad guys" knowing that almost every car on the road is loaded with valuables is not a great recipe for me getting to my destination.
I envision traffic at standstill with bands of thugs roaming between cars taking what they want. Not enough police or national guard to monitor every inch of a highway.I imagine "bad guys" in neighboring states laying in wait for a car with license plates from the affected state, knowing there is a good chance of finding gold coins and or jewelery. Out of state cars being broken into at hotels looking for valuables.
I doubt a terrorist would attack Iowa, so the people there might envision a more orderly catastrophy, a more generalized catastophy spread over the entire country where the "bad guys" wouldnt be around them like vultures.
March 20th, 2014 at 10:01:35 AM
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Quote: gpac1377Just a note on that. For US investors, gold is classified as a collectible, with a tax rate of 28% on long-term gains, whereas stocks and bonds are taxed at only 15% (or 20% for very high-income earners).
Low-income earners are taxed at lower rates, but collectibles are nevertheless disadvantaged versus stocks & bonds.
The situation affects not only physical gold, but also funds that hold gold, such as GLD.
Here are a couple of cites:
http://rodgers-associates.com/blog/irs-gold-not-an-investment/
http://money.cnn.com/2012/04/03/pf/funds/gold_oil_etfs_taxes.fortune/
WOW! I did not know that. Wow. The IRS never disappoints with their stupidity. Collectibles, really, my little bars of metal with no collectible value whatsoever? I am struggling really hard right now to comply with the new forum rules on profanity...
Well, given that new information, perhaps I will just give the IRS a hearty middle finger if I ever sell my physical metal. I doubt I would get caught anyway.
"So drink gamble eat f***, because one day you will be dust." -ontariodealer
March 20th, 2014 at 12:17:22 PM
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Yes I'm only talking about Physical gold. I have come across situations where someone is selling it for less then market price. I'm not sure if i can just go sell that gold for market price at the pawn shop (my guess is no?). I get people asking me for a loan on it (not sure how this would work). If i knew gold was going to hold or go up I might take a shot. I wouldn't be buying it in case of a zombie apocalypse or a financial melt down. I don't believe in such things. Guns would be a good choice in that situation. I love guns however, I don't think I like that idea here in Vegas(to many people I want to shoot. I dam well that was my parking spot ;)
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
March 20th, 2014 at 12:22:25 PM
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Quote: AxelWolfYes I'm only talking about Physical gold. I have come across situations where someone is selling it for less then market price. I'm not sure if i can just go sell that gold for market price at the pawn shop (my guess is no?). I get people asking me for a loan on it (not sure how this would work). If i knew gold was going to hold or go up I might take a shot. I wouldn't be buying it in case of a zombie apocalypse or a financial melt down. I don't believe in such things. Guns would be a good choice in that situation. I love guns however, I don't think I like that idea here in Vegas(to many people I want to shoot. I dam well that was my parking spot ;)
I don't have any experience selling, only buying. But my instinct is that a pawn shop would be the worst place to sell and would give you a terrible price.
In general, everything runs off of the "spot price." Businesses will charge you a markup on the spot price if you by, and undercut the spot price if you sell (hence how they make a profit). So if someone is trying to sell to you for less than the market price, the question is "how much less?" and "where can I turn around and sell this?" Probably they are trying to get more from you than they can get from the pawn shop, and are hoping you are only looking at the "spot."
There is a reputable precious metal dealer around where I live, and they charge a reasonable markup. It's been a while since I made a transaction, so I couldn't tell you the markup off the top of my head.
"So drink gamble eat f***, because one day you will be dust." -ontariodealer
March 20th, 2014 at 11:59:32 PM
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Quote: AcesAndEightsWhereas I could theoretically take my physical metal and barter with someone for food (/me ignores the pointing and laughing). Yes I realize guns and ammunition would probably be more valuable in this situation.
I find many people have this idea in the back of their minds. The 1/10 ounce gold coins seem made for that prospect.
Of course, you are going to pay a huge mark up over gold in one ounce coins.
But 1 ounce silver coins are $20.5 while 1/10 ounce gold coins are $133.
You are going to have to carry a lot of silver to make small purchases.
One last point. Your gold is probably not going to be worth much if society goes in decades of massive decay and anarchy. But their are a lot of scenarios that are much less shocking than Mel Gibson's Mad Max. A period of massive uncertainty that lasts a week, or being overseas during a time of extreme unsettled world finances are just as possible. Some physical gold and silver might be the difference between surviving such a mini cataclysm intact and healthy and on a jet plane or being left in a field for bird food.
March 21st, 2014 at 8:08:04 AM
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Quote: pacomartinSome physical gold and silver might be the difference between surviving such a mini cataclysm intact and healthy and on a jet plane or being left in a field for bird food.
A short-term dislocation could involve bank holidays or closures, so for that scenario I hold paper currency.
I may eventually buy a short-term amount of physical gold or silver, but I presume I won't be able to protect it if society breaks down severely.
Premiums for purchase are substantial. At the major online retailers such as APMEX and Kitco, I see markups of around 5% for 1-oz gold coins, 10% for fractional-ounce gold coins, and 15% for 1-oz silver coins. Shipping adds $10 to $30.
Local dealers will tend to charge higher premiums, and some are required to add sales tax. For example, Nevada requires sales tax on coins if the purchase price exceeds 50% of the face value. An American Eagle 1-oz gold coin has a face value of only $50, so it would be taxed. A generic gold bar would not be taxed in Nevada, but in a crisis, you want something that's recognizably authentic.
"Scientists tell us that the fastest animal on earth, with a top speed of 120 feet per second, is a cow that has been dropped out of a helicopter."
March 21st, 2014 at 8:24:03 AM
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In a crisis, I want Food, guns and gas. I have a feeling People with large amounts of addictive medications like Oxy would have the best things for trading. Since people will give or anything for them.Quote: gpac1377but in a crisis, you want something that's recognizably authentic.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
March 21st, 2014 at 8:58:34 AM
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The people with the guns will just take them.
March 21st, 2014 at 11:01:19 AM
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Quote: pacomartinI find many people have this idea in the back of their minds. The 1/10 ounce gold coins seem made for that prospect.
Of course, you are going to pay a huge mark up over gold in one ounce coins.
But 1 ounce silver coins are $20.5 while 1/10 ounce gold coins are $133.
You are going to have to carry a lot of silver to make small purchases.
All fine points. Enter, the Valcambi 50g CombiBar!. A 50g sheet of gold, pre-perforated into 1g chunks. 1 gram would currently get you about $45 bucks, and is much smaller than 2oz of silver.
"So drink gamble eat f***, because one day you will be dust." -ontariodealer
September 12th, 2014 at 8:00:43 AM
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I'm finally buying, in increments. I expect it to go down further, so buy some now, buy some later.
GLD etf this time. That fund is approx at same low as dec 19th
not going to own much till [and if] gold spot goes below $1200. Now, just want a position.
PS: any members trying to make money on British Pound? If Scots reject independence it'll soar. If they go for it, the Pound has already taken a beating. Alas, I just feel out of my comfort zone there.
spot price chart:
GLD etf this time. That fund is approx at same low as dec 19th
not going to own much till [and if] gold spot goes below $1200. Now, just want a position.
PS: any members trying to make money on British Pound? If Scots reject independence it'll soar. If they go for it, the Pound has already taken a beating. Alas, I just feel out of my comfort zone there.
spot price chart:
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
September 12th, 2014 at 10:12:41 AM
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Odiousgambit,
I have thought about taking a position in the Pound, if Scots reject independence it will recover all of its recent losses and probably gain some on top of that. The problem with this is the downside is huge. I have done limited research on this and analyst are saying that it could fall another 15-20pc in a worst case scenario. Furthermore, who knows what currency an independent Scotland would choose to use (Sterling Pound, Euro, new currency). These all have different levels of risk, chances of success, and impacts on the Bank of England.
I really have no idea so I am staying away.
I have thought about taking a position in the Pound, if Scots reject independence it will recover all of its recent losses and probably gain some on top of that. The problem with this is the downside is huge. I have done limited research on this and analyst are saying that it could fall another 15-20pc in a worst case scenario. Furthermore, who knows what currency an independent Scotland would choose to use (Sterling Pound, Euro, new currency). These all have different levels of risk, chances of success, and impacts on the Bank of England.
I really have no idea so I am staying away.
September 12th, 2014 at 11:52:36 AM
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Be careful of counterfeits. Everything can be faked and you can be buying garbage if you don't know your stuff.Quote: AxelWolfYes I'm only talking about Physical gold. I have come across situations where someone is selling it for less then market price. I'm not sure if i can just go sell that gold for market price at the pawn shop (my guess is no?). I get people asking me for a loan on it (not sure how this would work). If i knew gold was going to hold or go up I might take a shot. I wouldn't be buying it in case of a zombie apocalypse or a financial melt down. I don't believe in such things. Guns would be a good choice in that situation. I love guns however, I don't think I like that idea here in Vegas(to many people I want to shoot. I dam well that was my parking spot ;)
I am a robot.
September 13th, 2014 at 8:44:04 AM
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Quote: AxelWolfYes I'm only talking about Physical gold. I have come across situations where someone is selling it for less then market price. I'm not sure if i can just go sell that gold for market price at the pawn shop (my guess is no?). I get people asking me for a loan on it (not sure how this would work). If i knew gold was going to hold or go up I might take a shot. I wouldn't be buying it in case of a zombie apocalypse or a financial melt down. I don't believe in such things. Guns would be a good choice in that situation. I love guns however, I don't think I like that idea here in Vegas(to many people I want to shoot. I dam well that was my parking spot ;)
Costs almost nothing to get yourself a test kit to check the Karats and weight.
Gold/Silver/Plat test kit and scale.
I would think if you know what you're buying, you can flip it and get the melt price at the pawn shop.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
September 13th, 2014 at 11:03:05 AM
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As far as a bubble, I don't think you'll see one until Johnny Middle Class has sold all their holdings purchased through the years at lower prices. Zoom zoom zoom and a boom boom then.
I am a robot.
September 13th, 2014 at 11:58:23 AM
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Death of Money by James Rickards
I wonder if anyone else has read this book.
I have seen on the web a few people advocating the holding of physical Gold for the coming 'apocalyptic' scenarios and always found them to be on the fringe and not serious (some of them advocate all sorts of conspiracy theories from UFOs, Nasa never landing on the moon etc) so I dismissed them as irrelevant.
BUT reading this book which basically also advocates holding physical gold for 10%-20% of assets as a hedge against the possibility of financial meltdown, I found him quite more respectable than those on the fringe.
I found his analysis that a global financial meltdown is quite probable in the near future quite interesting and convincing. His argument range from US Debt, Federal Reserve Money printing, Probable High Inflation, China Shadow banking collapsing, BRICS getting fed up with the Dollar and a lot more.
His analysis concludes that the glovbal financial meltdown would result to a change of the gloabl financial system as we know it. Short term localised anarchy is possible but that is more relevant to 3rd world countries than to US and other developed countries.
And he concludes that the new global financial system will be based on a new Gold standard with the US$ no longer being the World Reserve Currency.
Note that a Gold Standard existed from the end of the 2nd world war until the 1970s.
No other currency can be the World Reserve Currency, so he also advocates that their will be a 'World' Currency, at least indirectly, in the form of SDR (Special Drawing Rights issued by the IMF). Ie Only governments and Central Banks (and maybe very big companies) will deal and have reserves in SDRs. The rest will deal with their currency. The currencies will be pegged against each other via the SDR mechanism and backed up by Gold. This SDR already exists and countries dealing with IMF on both sides (capital, lenders and borrowers) transact with it in SDRs. But currently these SDR money are a very small farction of World Reserves.
The most extravagant claim is that the price that gold should be for the new gold standard to work is around $9.000. In a sence US$ will be devalued against the Gold which is the 'real money'.
I agree with his arguments that a global financial meltdown is probable BUT I am still not convinced that the solution will be a new gold standard or even if a new gold standard is introduced the gold price will be that high.
I wonder if anyone else has read this book.
I have seen on the web a few people advocating the holding of physical Gold for the coming 'apocalyptic' scenarios and always found them to be on the fringe and not serious (some of them advocate all sorts of conspiracy theories from UFOs, Nasa never landing on the moon etc) so I dismissed them as irrelevant.
BUT reading this book which basically also advocates holding physical gold for 10%-20% of assets as a hedge against the possibility of financial meltdown, I found him quite more respectable than those on the fringe.
I found his analysis that a global financial meltdown is quite probable in the near future quite interesting and convincing. His argument range from US Debt, Federal Reserve Money printing, Probable High Inflation, China Shadow banking collapsing, BRICS getting fed up with the Dollar and a lot more.
His analysis concludes that the glovbal financial meltdown would result to a change of the gloabl financial system as we know it. Short term localised anarchy is possible but that is more relevant to 3rd world countries than to US and other developed countries.
And he concludes that the new global financial system will be based on a new Gold standard with the US$ no longer being the World Reserve Currency.
Note that a Gold Standard existed from the end of the 2nd world war until the 1970s.
No other currency can be the World Reserve Currency, so he also advocates that their will be a 'World' Currency, at least indirectly, in the form of SDR (Special Drawing Rights issued by the IMF). Ie Only governments and Central Banks (and maybe very big companies) will deal and have reserves in SDRs. The rest will deal with their currency. The currencies will be pegged against each other via the SDR mechanism and backed up by Gold. This SDR already exists and countries dealing with IMF on both sides (capital, lenders and borrowers) transact with it in SDRs. But currently these SDR money are a very small farction of World Reserves.
The most extravagant claim is that the price that gold should be for the new gold standard to work is around $9.000. In a sence US$ will be devalued against the Gold which is the 'real money'.
I agree with his arguments that a global financial meltdown is probable BUT I am still not convinced that the solution will be a new gold standard or even if a new gold standard is introduced the gold price will be that high.
September 13th, 2014 at 12:55:04 PM
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Quote: onenickelmiracleAs far as a bubble, I don't think you'll see one until Johnny Middle Class has sold all their holdings purchased through the years at lower prices. Zoom zoom zoom and a boom boom then.
Those guys who bought at similar prices as today and of course any who bought at higher prices, those are the guys who can panic. But you might have thought there would have been a panic before now, or you might think right now is a panic and we are seeing the first signs.
Some people say there is a reasonable floor for gold because of India, which can't get enough of it. The Chinese taste for gold is a factor too. That's not to say they can't panic either, but in those places we have considerable demand that is not speculation.
I advise at this stage not to buy any more than you can't hold on to for a long, long time.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
July 20th, 2015 at 1:46:00 PM
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Quote: odiousgambitI'm finally buying, in increments.
Actually, I put out a price for me to buy [Sept '14!] but only just now bought.
by the end of this same day lost a dollar a share in GDX
I plan to buy more [small position today] so let's hope dollar cost averaging saves me . After getting burned today, will wait for evidence of a floor.
Folks, Gold may be going through the floor!
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
July 20th, 2015 at 2:00:18 PM
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China is in deep doo doo and is flooding the
market with it's reserves, there is no floor.
"Talk from one local bank has been that 5 tonnes was dumped onto the Shanghai exchange, which is a huge order regardless of the time of day."
market with it's reserves, there is no floor.
"Talk from one local bank has been that 5 tonnes was dumped onto the Shanghai exchange, which is a huge order regardless of the time of day."
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
July 20th, 2015 at 4:45:59 PM
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Read 2 different articles this morning.
The first writer said gold was at a 5 year low, and the fundamentals show it will be rebounding this year.
The second article said gold has seen its time, and it is going to just keep sinking lower and lower.
Probably they were written by the same guy, using two different pen names. That way he can claim he made the right call next year.........
The first writer said gold was at a 5 year low, and the fundamentals show it will be rebounding this year.
The second article said gold has seen its time, and it is going to just keep sinking lower and lower.
Probably they were written by the same guy, using two different pen names. That way he can claim he made the right call next year.........
Always borrow money from a pessimist; They don't expect to get paid back !
Be yourself and speak your thoughts. Those who matter won't mind, and those that mind, don't matter!
July 20th, 2015 at 6:10:15 PM
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10 years ago it was below $500/oz
Could we go back 10 years? ... sometimes it be like that ... not unheard of ... I would really be stunned though, especially after waiting nearly a year for gold to shake off the $1200/oz support it held on to hard
Could we go back 10 years? ... sometimes it be like that ... not unheard of ... I would really be stunned though, especially after waiting nearly a year for gold to shake off the $1200/oz support it held on to hard
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
July 20th, 2015 at 8:12:07 PM
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Yes, and before that gold was also $2,079.33 in January 1980:Quote: odiousgambit10 years ago it was below $500/oz
http://www.macrotrends.net/1333/historical-gold-prices-100-year-chart
And that $2,079.33 market price in 1980 dollars would have to have grown to $6,020.98 (plus transaction costs) in today's dollars to break even: http://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/cpicalc.pl *EDIT, below.
Buy low, sell high. And good luck with that.
EDIT: Ooops. $2k & change was the inflation adjusted price. The nominal price in Jan 1980 dollars was $677.97, so > $2,000 is what you'd have to sell it for now in order to break even if bought in early 1980.
Suck dope, watch TV, make up stuff, be somebody on the internet.
July 20th, 2015 at 10:14:30 PM
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Quote: DrawingDeadBuy low, sell high. And good luck with that.
There's your answer right there.
aahigh.com
July 21st, 2015 at 5:06:53 AM
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But all those guys on the TV commercials said I would be rich if I bought gold. They seem like honest folks who really care about and my wellbeing.
And Glenn Beck even said they were good people. What would be in it for him to lie?
And Glenn Beck even said they were good people. What would be in it for him to lie?
July 21st, 2015 at 6:29:25 AM
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probably making the same pitch, only "there's buying opportunities now"
wait a minute, I think I fell for that LOL
wait a minute, I think I fell for that LOL
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
July 21st, 2015 at 7:19:55 AM
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Quote: odiousgambitprobably making the same pitch, only "there's buying opportunities now"
wait a minute, I think I fell for that LOL
Gold in small coin is an acceptable hedge against disaster. So are:
Large quantities of grains
Hundreds of hand operated portable water filters
Guns, and lots and lots of ammo, and crossbows, knives, swords, axes etc
Underground and or hidden bunkers
Tons of toilet paper and feminine hygiene products ;-)
Youuuuuu MIGHT be a 'rascal' if.......(nevermind ;-)...2F
August 20th, 2015 at 11:05:53 AM
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Sold my gold* today and don't care if it goes up from here. I will own it again at some point below $1100 and not own it when it goes above. If it oscillates? Can't ask for a better situation.
Cautiously buying stocks in index funds, including biotech [IBB]
*gold mines etf, GDX
Cautiously buying stocks in index funds, including biotech [IBB]
*gold mines etf, GDX
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
August 20th, 2015 at 11:43:40 AM
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Quote: odiousgambitSold my gold* today and don't care if it goes up from here. I will own it again at some point below $1100 and not own it when it goes above. If it oscillates? Can't ask for a better situation.
Cautiously buying stocks in index funds, including biotech [IBB]
*gold mines etf, GDX
Very weird, but I bought your gold today.
You want to make a deal so that neither of us loses?
Rather than just cancel each other out, would drive the brokers nuts, jump off bridges nuts!
Youuuuuu MIGHT be a 'rascal' if.......(nevermind ;-)...2F
August 20th, 2015 at 12:37:42 PM
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Quote: TwoFeathersATLVery weird, but I bought your gold today.
You want to make a deal so that neither of us loses?
Rather than just cancel each other out, would drive the brokers nuts, jump off bridges nuts!
I think they are happy to take our action LOL
It depends on who guesses right about where to jump in and where to jump out. Gold does happen to be something I believe in holding sometimes and unloading sometimes. Other assets, if you like buy and hold only, fine.
So far I can say I've never been hurt by gold, but I have been lucky.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
