Will Gold 'Bubble' Burst?
April 12th, 2013 at 3:49:37 PM
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Closed at $1477. Its been overpriced for a long time.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
April 12th, 2013 at 3:50:11 PM
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A bad day for gold, but bitcoins are back up over $100.
April 12th, 2013 at 4:17:40 PM
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Quote: pacomartin
One of my pet peeves is graphs like this. You make it look like gold took a 100% drop in price. Granted, if you went from 0 to 1600 the recent drop might not make such a big impact. I think it balances journalistic integrity and message if you at least make the high and low points round numbers, like 1400 to 1600.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
April 12th, 2013 at 4:23:09 PM
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Quote: WizardOne of my pet peeves is graphs like this. You make it look like gold took a 100% drop in price. Granted, if you went from 0 to 1600 the recent drop might not make such a big impact. I think it balances journalistic integrity and message if you at least make the high and low points round numbers, like 1400 to 1600.
I agree, it's a bad graph. Better off just writing $1477.60 DN 86.70
And thats a sizable drop, yikes.
April 12th, 2013 at 4:48:33 PM
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I'm not too worried about gold/silver prices.
I don't expect them to steadily gain or anything, but most people who invest in gold and silver do so to diversify and/or to hedge against the dollar (or other currency.) The variance we've seen is really nothing. So over a few months, it has varied 25ish percent. That's fine when it has steadily risen for decades and has gone up faster in the most recent years....
I'm one of those guys, the majority of my net worth is stored in dollars, but I made a relatively small investment in silver. That silver is now at a loss, but if I worried everytime it went down and cheered everytime it went up I'd be wasting my time. Overall, I expect it to gain against the dollar, but stay relatively steady in value.
IMO, most people who are invested in gold and silver don't care about these short term things... and most of us are positive that silver is headed to around 120-200 dollars per ounce. But that's a long term thing, and by the time it does, it will mostly be because the dollar went down, not really that silver went up. (And yes, I do believe that silver will reach that eventually, but I don't think gold specifically will grow at the same rate.)
I really don't care what the price is today, tomorrow, next week, or even next year. And most people who buy silver and gold don't, either. Most people buying these commodities expect a decline in the dollar, which is why they've chosen physical commodities. IMO this isn't a bubble, and won't burst. Not in the way you guys are predicting. It will probably lose value for a little while, only to bounce back again almost just as slowly. Silver and Gold have gained pretty steadily in the past decades, and the fluctuations in last few years have been due to uncertainty IMO.
The only reason that Gold and Silver will go down, almost like a bubble bursting, is if their is a lot more certainty in the market and strength in fiat currencies. And if that happens, that's good for us anyway.
I don't expect them to steadily gain or anything, but most people who invest in gold and silver do so to diversify and/or to hedge against the dollar (or other currency.) The variance we've seen is really nothing. So over a few months, it has varied 25ish percent. That's fine when it has steadily risen for decades and has gone up faster in the most recent years....
I'm one of those guys, the majority of my net worth is stored in dollars, but I made a relatively small investment in silver. That silver is now at a loss, but if I worried everytime it went down and cheered everytime it went up I'd be wasting my time. Overall, I expect it to gain against the dollar, but stay relatively steady in value.
IMO, most people who are invested in gold and silver don't care about these short term things... and most of us are positive that silver is headed to around 120-200 dollars per ounce. But that's a long term thing, and by the time it does, it will mostly be because the dollar went down, not really that silver went up. (And yes, I do believe that silver will reach that eventually, but I don't think gold specifically will grow at the same rate.)
I really don't care what the price is today, tomorrow, next week, or even next year. And most people who buy silver and gold don't, either. Most people buying these commodities expect a decline in the dollar, which is why they've chosen physical commodities. IMO this isn't a bubble, and won't burst. Not in the way you guys are predicting. It will probably lose value for a little while, only to bounce back again almost just as slowly. Silver and Gold have gained pretty steadily in the past decades, and the fluctuations in last few years have been due to uncertainty IMO.
The only reason that Gold and Silver will go down, almost like a bubble bursting, is if their is a lot more certainty in the market and strength in fiat currencies. And if that happens, that's good for us anyway.
April 12th, 2013 at 4:50:48 PM
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I realize gold and silver have been headed down, but are a few percent losses for a few days really indicative of anything meaningful for the commidities long term?
I don't think so, and if someone disagrees can they say why? Because I recall days where silver gained a few percent for a few days in a row. I never thought that would be a long term trend, b/c that's obviously not realistic.
I don't think so, and if someone disagrees can they say why? Because I recall days where silver gained a few percent for a few days in a row. I never thought that would be a long term trend, b/c that's obviously not realistic.
April 12th, 2013 at 5:44:28 PM
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Quote: WizardOne of my pet peeves is graphs like this.
I do try and change the graphs when I make them to have zero axis. But I just linked to the goldprice site without downloading the data and making my own graph. All it shows you is if there was any recovery during the day instead of just going in one direction.
At the end of the 5.54% drop today, the gold price is back to where it was in the summer of 2011.
April 13th, 2013 at 3:56:42 AM
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If the price of oil continues to decline, IMO there is an opportunity arising ... plenty of risk of course.
I like the Vanguard etf "VDE," which is all-energy actually. I've heard it said that etf's arent the best thing for speculating, but I don't spend a lot of time speculating. I like to pick sectors sometimes though. I am a re-balancer for the most part, which, btw, is *not* a type of buy-and-hold strategy.
I like the Vanguard etf "VDE," which is all-energy actually. I've heard it said that etf's arent the best thing for speculating, but I don't spend a lot of time speculating. I like to pick sectors sometimes though. I am a re-balancer for the most part, which, btw, is *not* a type of buy-and-hold strategy.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
April 13th, 2013 at 7:15:14 AM
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Alvan Toffler in his book Future Shock believed that precious metals would someday be viewed as stone axe primitive. Outside of industrial uses, a real bear case can be made for the yellow metal.
Each day is better than the next
April 13th, 2013 at 7:39:48 AM
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Industry wide it cost approximately 1,100 per ounce to get it out of the ground. So, in a sense a floor has been put on the price of the metal. All the low hanging fruit has been picked worldwide.
Each day is better than the next
April 13th, 2013 at 9:44:57 AM
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I missed this thread.
I've been following and reporting on the gold/silver market since the mid 1970s. I'm also the reporter who broke the story about the Hunts failing to meet their margin calls on silver... but that's ancient history.
Gold's rally of a couple of years ago started (break out point) at $1300. Patterns tend to repeat, so a retracement to $1300 is likely. Gold topped at about $1950 which was just below the $2,000 target of the big gold marketeers.
Last week gold fell by $111 an ounce, and it is only $177 above $1300. Maybe gold will bottom in this decline at $1300-1350. If gold should break below $1300 there is a long term support line at $1060 which is where the current bull market started.
Even if gold retreats to $1060 the long term bull market is still intact.
I've been following and reporting on the gold/silver market since the mid 1970s. I'm also the reporter who broke the story about the Hunts failing to meet their margin calls on silver... but that's ancient history.
Gold's rally of a couple of years ago started (break out point) at $1300. Patterns tend to repeat, so a retracement to $1300 is likely. Gold topped at about $1950 which was just below the $2,000 target of the big gold marketeers.
Last week gold fell by $111 an ounce, and it is only $177 above $1300. Maybe gold will bottom in this decline at $1300-1350. If gold should break below $1300 there is a long term support line at $1060 which is where the current bull market started.
Even if gold retreats to $1060 the long term bull market is still intact.
April 13th, 2013 at 9:58:48 AM
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AlanMendelson, the chart man. Your technical analysis looks good. Mining is probably the most productive work humans can engage in......everything begins with mining. If it can't be grown, it must be mined
Each day is better than the next
April 13th, 2013 at 10:13:37 AM
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I learned TA from Stan Weinstein in Miami in the early 1980s. I've lived by it since then. BUT I DON'T CHART CRAPS TABLES. (LOL)
April 13th, 2013 at 10:46:10 AM
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Quote: AlanMendelsonBUT I DON'T CHART CRAPS TABLES. (LOL)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=anXKnXVm-Kc
aahigh.com
April 14th, 2013 at 10:16:06 AM
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Quote: treetopbuddyAlanMendelson, the chart man. Your technical analysis looks good. Mining is probably the most productive work humans can engage in......everything begins with mining. If it can't be grown, it must be mined
Maybe some of the environmentalists on the forum will make note of you comments. So many of todays young people have the quick answer to any mining proposal as mining = bad without knowing any other details
Be careful when you follow the masses, the M is sometimes silent.
April 14th, 2013 at 11:00:03 AM
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Quote: kenarmanMaybe some of the environmentalists on the forum will make note of you comments. So many of todays young people have the quick answer to any mining proposal as mining = bad without knowing any other details
Environmentalism is nothing short of a religion. People need to give meaning to their meaningless lives. Environmentalist enjoy all the benefits of mining, right down to the match they use to start up the barbecue. The hypocrisy is incredible.
Each day is better than the next
April 15th, 2013 at 2:51:53 AM
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Some numbers (please correct any of these that are wrong, thanks).
Federal deficit:
$16,502,801
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
Gold:
$7,576,092
http://onlygold.com/tutorialpages/All_The_Gold_In_The_World.asp
US Dollar:
$829,000
http://www.newyorkfed.org/aboutthefed/fedpoint/fed01.html
Silver:
$393,741
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Silver_as_an_investment
Platinum:
$241,416
http://www.politifact.com/new-hampshire/statements/2013/jan/14/national-republican-congressional-committee/nrcc-compares-nations-debt-all-words-platinum-take/
BitCoin:
$1,250
http://blockchain.info/charts/market-cap
Federal deficit:
$16,502,801
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
Gold:
$7,576,092
http://onlygold.com/tutorialpages/All_The_Gold_In_The_World.asp
US Dollar:
$829,000
http://www.newyorkfed.org/aboutthefed/fedpoint/fed01.html
Silver:
$393,741
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Silver_as_an_investment
Platinum:
$241,416
http://www.politifact.com/new-hampshire/statements/2013/jan/14/national-republican-congressional-committee/nrcc-compares-nations-debt-all-words-platinum-take/
BitCoin:
$1,250
http://blockchain.info/charts/market-cap
aahigh.com
April 15th, 2013 at 4:06:37 AM
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In early trading today (Monday) gold dipped below $1400 an ounce. Anyone following technical analysis saw months ago that gold had a rally failure, and the break down through higher support levels ($1800, then $1700 and then $1600) cleared the way for the current slide.
$1300 is a likely retracement point because $1300 was the price where the recent bull run started -- the breakout.
The long term bull market goes back to around $1030-$1060.
I've been writing a weekly report about gold for the past 7 years on my site, not to mention the years I covered it going back to when I was a reporter at CBS in the mid 1970s.
http://www.alanbestbuys.com/id82.html
Right now at 4:06-AM Pacific gold is down another $67 an ounce from Friday's close.
$1300 is a likely retracement point because $1300 was the price where the recent bull run started -- the breakout.
The long term bull market goes back to around $1030-$1060.
I've been writing a weekly report about gold for the past 7 years on my site, not to mention the years I covered it going back to when I was a reporter at CBS in the mid 1970s.
http://www.alanbestbuys.com/id82.html
Right now at 4:06-AM Pacific gold is down another $67 an ounce from Friday's close.
April 15th, 2013 at 6:38:01 AM
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So much for all those gold commercials that have been
saying gold will hit $3000 an once in the next few years.
The EU countries will now panic and sell their reserves,
especially Cyprus and Italy, and it will go below $1300.
How many gold mining reality shows are on TV, 5?
Next year there won't be any.
saying gold will hit $3000 an once in the next few years.
The EU countries will now panic and sell their reserves,
especially Cyprus and Italy, and it will go below $1300.
How many gold mining reality shows are on TV, 5?
Next year there won't be any.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
April 15th, 2013 at 6:38:27 AM
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highly leveraged hedge funds dumping gold future contracts......
Each day is better than the next
April 15th, 2013 at 6:38:49 AM
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Here is a great chart for gold over the last five years which clearly shows the technical signals for the rally that started in 2009 and the recent market top that led to this big drop.
http://www.kitco.com/charts/historicalgold.html click on the options for "historical charts," "multi years," "2000-2013"
At the end of 2009 the gold market completed what is called a "reverse head and shoulders formation" which is very bullish. Those of you who read Investor's Business Daily might be more familiar with the term "cup and handle formation" and this is the same type of pattern.
the first market top came in September 2011, followed by a small retreat and then another attempt to get back to the record highs and this was the rally failure. The rally failure doomed the market to drop back and retest various support levels going back to 1030-1060 but I think there is an intermediate support level at 1300.
http://www.kitco.com/charts/historicalgold.html click on the options for "historical charts," "multi years," "2000-2013"
At the end of 2009 the gold market completed what is called a "reverse head and shoulders formation" which is very bullish. Those of you who read Investor's Business Daily might be more familiar with the term "cup and handle formation" and this is the same type of pattern.
the first market top came in September 2011, followed by a small retreat and then another attempt to get back to the record highs and this was the rally failure. The rally failure doomed the market to drop back and retest various support levels going back to 1030-1060 but I think there is an intermediate support level at 1300.
April 15th, 2013 at 6:50:50 AM
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I said before George Soros saw this coming in late 2011 and dumped
all his gold. Thats why those guys are billionaires, they know when to
buy and sell. They know when to be satisfied with a profit and not be
greedy.
all his gold. Thats why those guys are billionaires, they know when to
buy and sell. They know when to be satisfied with a profit and not be
greedy.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
April 15th, 2013 at 6:52:53 AM
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short the GLD if you think the selloff will continue. GLD Jun 125 puts 1.79.......
Each day is better than the next
April 15th, 2013 at 7:05:35 AM
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Quote: treetopbuddyshort the GLD if you think the selloff will continue. GLD Jun 125 puts 1.79.......
I think it might be too late for put options. Im not familiar with the premiums but my guess is there isn't much downside left but the premiums on puts would be high now. A better "bet" might be a long term call option at $1800 an ounce.
April 15th, 2013 at 7:10:06 AM
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the put options are expensive due to volatility. Up, down or sideways.......who knows?
Each day is better than the next
April 15th, 2013 at 7:25:17 AM
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Quote: treetopbuddythe put options are expensive due to volatility. Up, down or sideways.......who knows?
With the market seemingly crashing and all the commentaries about the market crashing (see kitco.com) it makes sense that the put options would have a big premium, but the call options should be dirt cheap.
how many of us regret not buying LVS when it was at $3 a share.
Same kind of gamble right now with long term gold options. But I am not familiar with the pricing on the options, so I would need more info.
Generally I don't like options. Here's what I think of the options market:
The biggest "call" is "help."
And when you buy puts you usually are one.
April 15th, 2013 at 7:32:16 AM
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So it happened. Right at $1398 now.
This is p.much exactly what I posted in here: https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/off-topic/8076-wov-challenge-predict-the-price-of-gold-on-jan-1-2013/4/
Off by 4 months... but then picking exact dates is best left to clairvoyants.
With all the events of the last 16 months, I stand by that number. $1,400 is about the fair value for gold with the world economy in its current condition.
Gold can't go down to 3 figures now. Maybe dip with a tiny spike (and I've got orders set JIC), but not remain there. With obamas around the world keeping their economies in the toilets, there isn't much else to invest money in.
Gold isn't going to grow to massive figures either. It's not that it isn't worth a lot; there just isn't enough dollars. Continuous growth can only happen in a hyperinflation scenario, and there isn't one. Therefore no real money backing a price near $2k, just temporary volatility.
This is p.much exactly what I posted in here: https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/off-topic/8076-wov-challenge-predict-the-price-of-gold-on-jan-1-2013/4/
Off by 4 months... but then picking exact dates is best left to clairvoyants.
With all the events of the last 16 months, I stand by that number. $1,400 is about the fair value for gold with the world economy in its current condition.
Gold can't go down to 3 figures now. Maybe dip with a tiny spike (and I've got orders set JIC), but not remain there. With obamas around the world keeping their economies in the toilets, there isn't much else to invest money in.
Gold isn't going to grow to massive figures either. It's not that it isn't worth a lot; there just isn't enough dollars. Continuous growth can only happen in a hyperinflation scenario, and there isn't one. Therefore no real money backing a price near $2k, just temporary volatility.
Resist ANFO Boston PRISM Stormfront IRA Freedom CIA Obama
April 15th, 2013 at 7:39:37 AM
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If somebody had special insight into LVS in summer of 09 a fortune could have been made. Buying out of the money call LEAPS (long term equity anticipation securities). 2 year contacts give or take that offer huge leverage. Now that would be AP.
Each day is better than the next
April 15th, 2013 at 7:59:31 AM
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Quote: treetopbuddyEnvironmentalism is nothing short of a religion. People need to give meaning to their meaningless lives. Environmentalist enjoy all the benefits of mining, right down to the match they use to start up the barbecue. The hypocrisy is incredible.
Most envtionmentalists tend to be the most clueless on the most simple "environmental" issues. Some don't know the difference between ozone depletion and so-called global warming and the purported causes of each. Most thing we have drilled all the oil wells we wi ever need a d if we simply conserve fuel we will be fine. They do not understand that a little pesticide is better than plowing and planting three times as many acres. They seem to think food and goods magically appear at the store with no need to be produced or transported.
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
April 15th, 2013 at 8:22:26 AM
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Nature is boring. The Grand Canyon. Yeah it's cool, but after 20 minutes I was ready to hit the road. Now the BIG hole in the ground outside of Bisbee Arizona is fascinating. Big cooper mining operation. Spent two days in the area.
Each day is better than the next
April 15th, 2013 at 8:24:54 AM
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Quote: P90$1,400 is about the fair value for gold with the world economy in its current condition.
What does it cost to mine an ounce of gold? In other words, at what gold price would a large gold mine in Nevada or Utah break even?
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
April 15th, 2013 at 8:31:05 AM
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last number I heard was 1100/ounce.....worldwide average. Some areas still have low hanging fruit thus cheaper to produce. Most of the easy gold has been found.
Each day is better than the next
April 15th, 2013 at 8:39:54 AM
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Do any of you remember the reports back in 1980 that the price of gold collapsed then at around $800 an ounce because the Russians had found a way to create gold (alchemy)??
April 15th, 2013 at 8:47:24 AM
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Quote: AlanMendelsonDo any of you remember the reports back in 1980 that the price of gold collapsed then at around $800 an ounce because the Russians had found a way to create gold (alchemy)??
never heard the Russian alchemy story .....but in the early 80's I was sure the Russians were going to blow us up.......still believe that to some degree.
Each day is better than the next
April 15th, 2013 at 8:58:13 AM
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Quote: WizardWhat does it cost to mine an ounce of gold? In other words, at what gold price would a large gold mine in Nevada or Utah break even?
Somewhere around 1100-1200ish
April 15th, 2013 at 8:59:03 AM
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Quote: treetopbuddylast number I heard was 1100/ounce.....worldwide average. Some areas still have low hanging fruit thus cheaper to produce. Most of the easy gold has been found.
Thanks. That will be my buy point then.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
April 15th, 2013 at 9:41:58 AM
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Curiously 1030-1060 was the break out point for the long term bull run.
April 15th, 2013 at 10:10:16 AM
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Goldman Sachs put out a note last week to short gold......said that gold didn't respond properly to Cyprus meltdown.
Each day is better than the next
April 15th, 2013 at 10:13:51 AM
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Quote: treetopbuddyGoldman Sachs put out a note last week to short gold......said that gold didn't respond properly to Cyprus meltdown.
Not only that... but Gold didnt shoot up when North Korea threatened nuclear war. As I wrote in my web article last week: If worries over North Korea sending a nuclear warhead to Tokyo, Japan couldn't send gold prices higher -- what can?
There is a basic belief in the markets that goes like this: if an investment doesn't perform well when it should perform well, when will it perform well?
April 15th, 2013 at 10:16:16 AM
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the correlation between gold and fear has broken down. Correlations work until they don't.
Each day is better than the next
April 15th, 2013 at 11:59:27 AM
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Here was my fear point: SOLD IT ALL!!! I took a loss, but wow glad I got out.
04/12/2013 12:52:37 Sold 130 GLD @ 145.621 18,920.31
04/12/2013 12:52:47 Sold 105 PPLT @ 146.5201 15,374.27
04/12/2013 12:52:57 Sold 1000 SLV @ 25.5401 25,529.53
I sold my two physical bars on Saturday, and made $400 profit from that since then at the tables .. which made up for the money I lost on the bars.
I lost a lot more on the above positions, but I was at break-even at close on Thursday, so my total losses were accounted for from one day's worth of movements. I never expected that much in one day on metals, but today was like WOW. Schwew! Glad my fear is working!
04/12/2013 12:52:37 Sold 130 GLD @ 145.621 18,920.31
04/12/2013 12:52:47 Sold 105 PPLT @ 146.5201 15,374.27
04/12/2013 12:52:57 Sold 1000 SLV @ 25.5401 25,529.53
I sold my two physical bars on Saturday, and made $400 profit from that since then at the tables .. which made up for the money I lost on the bars.
I lost a lot more on the above positions, but I was at break-even at close on Thursday, so my total losses were accounted for from one day's worth of movements. I never expected that much in one day on metals, but today was like WOW. Schwew! Glad my fear is working!
aahigh.com
April 15th, 2013 at 1:12:21 PM
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Quote: AlanMendelsonThere is a basic belief in the markets that goes like this: if an investment doesn't perform well when it should perform well, when will it perform well?
It's not quite a matter of the fundamentals being wrong. They are right, it's just that there wasn't room for growth.
There is a total of 150,000+ metric tons of gold in the world now. Not all of it is liquid, but it's there. A metric ton is ~32,000 troy oz, giving a total supply of about 5 billion ounces.
Gold passing $3,000 would put the value of this supply at 15 trillion dollars. And the world economy just isn't big enough to back this much value on gold alone. It could be if we used gold coins as currency, but that's what it would take. Short of that, value in $2k range and above is only sustainable on a small traded supply, like corporate market cap figures.
Resist ANFO Boston PRISM Stormfront IRA Freedom CIA Obama
April 15th, 2013 at 1:53:07 PM
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If it turns out the bombings at the Boston Marathon were orchestrated by a foreign power, then the situation may change rapidly.
April 15th, 2013 at 1:57:04 PM
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gold didn't budge on the bombings......
Each day is better than the next
April 15th, 2013 at 2:10:56 PM
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Quote: pacomartinIf it turns out the bombings at the Boston Marathon were orchestrated by a foreign power, then the situation may change rapidly.
I would look first to a Wall Street guy that was getting huge margin calls on his gold positions
Each day is better than the next
April 15th, 2013 at 2:46:59 PM
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tomorrow, don't be surprised if we see a little bounce up for gold. I think the two day plunge we saw Friday and today were a bit "overdone." We could see a dead cat bounce of as much as half of what we lost in two days... that would be $100 to the upside. But that "bounce" might also be short lived. If you wanted to sell, sell on the bounce.
gold seemed to hit some support today at $1340-1350. I still think 1300 will be the bottom.
About an hour ago two "gold buying companies" called me to order new TV commercials that they want to get on the tube right away. Both fear that their markets will dry up as consumers stop selling and wait for higher prices.
But I suggested more consumers will want to sell now fearing even lower prices later.
I shoot one of the new commercials Wednesday night, another on Thursday. Okay, so I made some money off of the panic.
gold seemed to hit some support today at $1340-1350. I still think 1300 will be the bottom.
About an hour ago two "gold buying companies" called me to order new TV commercials that they want to get on the tube right away. Both fear that their markets will dry up as consumers stop selling and wait for higher prices.
But I suggested more consumers will want to sell now fearing even lower prices later.
I shoot one of the new commercials Wednesday night, another on Thursday. Okay, so I made some money off of the panic.
April 15th, 2013 at 2:59:09 PM
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I want to point out that $200 per troy ounce is a solid flooring.
The cost to produce Gold today is only relevant assuming that Gold is actually needed for industry that much, which it isn't.
A lot of the gold that is out there has mostly psychological value as it's not useful in general for anything; just that there's not much of it.
And when you consider that Platinum is even more rare and about the same price per Troy ounce, it just makes the story that gold is still way overpriced that much more believable.
This is an old old thread that is only getting attention because of the triggers.
But many have known gold to be overpriced since it first hit $600 per ounce not really THAT long ago in the midst of financial troubles as a, and I quote, "safe haven."
The concept of safe haven has been decimated.
The remaining value is now going to be put into question and as it become more popular to flee the metal, a self-perpetuating sell-off could see a floor much much lower.
Of course Alan is the expert here, and he's making money off the crises where as I lost a day's worth of movement from the crisis.
So this is just another perspective on the matter from someone who is not as well researched on the topic.
Just consider it a "nightmarish" fear view from someone who timed it about as bad as possible for looking for a bargain as Alan is now suggesting might be a good idea.
I thought it might be a bargain at 1580/troy-ounce. I was wrong and took a $100/ounce hit in one day or so!!!
$1300 might sound good to you just like $1580 sounded good to me.
But what if it drops from $1300 to $800 in one day! I never thought I'd see the loss that I saw that quickly.
Here's my recommendation: flee to the US dollar for the next week or two minimum and totally ignore all the chaos for now.
The cost to produce Gold today is only relevant assuming that Gold is actually needed for industry that much, which it isn't.
A lot of the gold that is out there has mostly psychological value as it's not useful in general for anything; just that there's not much of it.
And when you consider that Platinum is even more rare and about the same price per Troy ounce, it just makes the story that gold is still way overpriced that much more believable.
This is an old old thread that is only getting attention because of the triggers.
But many have known gold to be overpriced since it first hit $600 per ounce not really THAT long ago in the midst of financial troubles as a, and I quote, "safe haven."
The concept of safe haven has been decimated.
The remaining value is now going to be put into question and as it become more popular to flee the metal, a self-perpetuating sell-off could see a floor much much lower.
Of course Alan is the expert here, and he's making money off the crises where as I lost a day's worth of movement from the crisis.
So this is just another perspective on the matter from someone who is not as well researched on the topic.
Just consider it a "nightmarish" fear view from someone who timed it about as bad as possible for looking for a bargain as Alan is now suggesting might be a good idea.
I thought it might be a bargain at 1580/troy-ounce. I was wrong and took a $100/ounce hit in one day or so!!!
$1300 might sound good to you just like $1580 sounded good to me.
But what if it drops from $1300 to $800 in one day! I never thought I'd see the loss that I saw that quickly.
Here's my recommendation: flee to the US dollar for the next week or two minimum and totally ignore all the chaos for now.
aahigh.com
April 15th, 2013 at 3:44:06 PM
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Quote: AhighSome numbers (please correct any of these that are wrong, thanks).
Gold:
$7,576,092
http://onlygold.com/tutorialpages/All_The_Gold_In_The_World.asp
People freaked when BitCoin market cap moved a billion.
Since this post 13 hours ago, Gold market cap moved from $7,576,092 to $6,935,475.
That's 640.6 BILLION dollars or 640x as much money disappearing as the bitcoin event a few days ago.
That is money that simply disappeared. It's imaginary to begin with so it didn't just disappear, just that all of a sudden there is less of the imaginary stuff than there was before.
Something to think about when you're just looking at the percentages.
640 billion is 3.88% of our federal deficit!
aahigh.com
April 15th, 2013 at 4:57:24 PM
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Quote: Ahigh640 billion is 3.88% of our federal deficit!
Federal debt, not deficit. It hasn't quite gotten that bad yet.
Another way to look at it is 640 billion is greater than the "narrow money " or M1 supply of all but 8 nations. Or if you prefer, all but 5 currency unions.
The five are Japanese and Chinese Yen, Euro, US and Canadian Dollar. While UK has a big economy and a lot of "broad money" or M3, their "narrow money" supply is very low comparatively.
M1 comprises the total quantity of currency in circulation (notes and coins) plus demand deposits denominated in the national currency held by nonbank financial institutions, state and local governments, nonfinancial public enterprises, and the private sector of the economy, measured at a specific point in time.
April 15th, 2013 at 5:12:32 PM
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When was there ever a gold bubble? Who do you know who went into a frenzy to buy gold? Let them manipulate the price of gold all they want. China will swap fiat for real money.
As for me, the price of silver went down again. I look at this as a buying opportunity. Drive the price down to $20..$18...$15...$13... or lower. I don't care. I don't plan on selling at these prices so the lower the price goes, the more I can buy.
Definition of a bubble is people buying into something because of the greater fool theory. If I buy a piece of paper for $2 who sells it to someone else for $3 who sells it to some else for $4 etc..... until the last person cannot sell this at a higher price, the real price discovery is reached. Look at tulip mania.
Gold is not in a bubble, the fiat money is.
As for me, the price of silver went down again. I look at this as a buying opportunity. Drive the price down to $20..$18...$15...$13... or lower. I don't care. I don't plan on selling at these prices so the lower the price goes, the more I can buy.
Definition of a bubble is people buying into something because of the greater fool theory. If I buy a piece of paper for $2 who sells it to someone else for $3 who sells it to some else for $4 etc..... until the last person cannot sell this at a higher price, the real price discovery is reached. Look at tulip mania.
Gold is not in a bubble, the fiat money is.
Edward Snowden is not the criminal, the government is for violating the constitution!
