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P90
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April 15th, 2013 at 8:17:09 PM permalink
Quote: Ahigh

But many have known gold to be overpriced since it first hit $600 per ounce not really THAT long ago in the midst of financial troubles as a, and I quote, "safe haven."
The concept of safe haven has been decimated.


Hardly. There's plenty of gold bugs out there, and the world is in a "high gold" economic stage.

It was never a question of low or high gold. It was only a question of how high it could go. I looked at it soaring past $1,500, then $2,000, and it was obvious that there isn't real money behind these prices. Just market deficit from a small traded supply lagging behind demand, the most volatile last percent.

Imagine a mountain, a tall building on top of it, and a balloon tied to the top of that building. It's tiny and insignificant, but if mountain height is measured by that balloon, that's the height it will be measured at. Until someone tests that height by trying to climb it.
This is the situation, a bubble grown on top of actual high value.
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AlanMendelson
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April 16th, 2013 at 12:07:01 AM permalink
In early trading on Tuesday gold is having a bounce off the lows. it would not surprise me if gold bounces back a hundred dollars an ounce before resuming its slide. The Friday-Monday plunge was too much, too fast.
odiousgambit
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April 16th, 2013 at 12:55:22 AM permalink
If speculating on gold, my gut says it will have support at about this level but will not climb back up much. If looking to invest, I would still not be a buyer at this price.

The stock market was due for a correction. It has no where to go but up with gold and bonds losing luster, but it could be bearish for a while. Look for buying opportunities.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
AlanMendelson
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April 16th, 2013 at 1:18:47 AM permalink
We never had a rush to buy gold here in the USA but in India there is a rush to buy gold. Everyone buys gold in India. It's like an entire country of Ahighs running to neighborhood stores on payday to buy a quarter ounce or a half ounce bar.

When you think about all of the gold dealers advertising on TV and radio, the USA is a country made up of gold sellers. We sell it and the consumers of India as well as Japan and China buy it.

but think about this: when those same consumers in India and China and Japan are not buying gold they are also buying US dollars. Where do you think all of those $100 bills that Uncle Sam prints go? The casinos only use a fraction of them. The rest are in other countries.

the latest estimate is that 2/3 of all the $100 bills are overseas.
vert1276
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April 16th, 2013 at 3:48:31 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

What does it cost to mine an ounce of gold? In other words, at what gold price would a large gold mine in Nevada or Utah break even?



You can go to any mining companies web site and look at their "cash costs" per oz....They will be broken down by metal they mine. Gold, Silver, Copper ect ect, as most mining companies mine multiple metals at the same site....These cash costs per oz are there so investors can see if it is worth wild to invest in that mining company. Now SOME people really doubt/hate these "cash costs" estimate numbers. Especially the people who are "really into" investing in gold and silver because they think fiat currency is "evil" and the Federal reserve is really run by the Rothschild's, and they think the Illuminati and Bilderberg group rule the world ect ect...These people are easily recognized because they are wearing a tin foil hat LOL!!...

Take for example the largest gold mining company in the US...Newmont Mining Inc.....They say their "cash Costs" in Nevada for 2012, to take gold out of the ground was $661 per oz....At their La Herradura mine in Mexico they list their "cash costs" for to take gold out of the ground at $608 per oz....Now remember these "cash costs" are put out there by the mining company to attract investors...So take these numbers with a grain of salt and know they are probably low....The cash cost only includes the price of taking the ore out of the ground at the site level...So only the cost of the labor of the miners, the cost of equipment, The price of diesel to run the equipment, mining lease costs ect ect....Of course we know it takes more than just the people at the mining site to make the company run...You have the corporate offices...the HR department, engineers, geologist, executives ect ect....The operating costs for those things are not included in the "cash cost"...

PDF for Newmonts cash costs

Now investors(or at least the smart ones) know that the "cash costs" are really there to attract investors and they are artificially low...And have started asking for a "all-in sustaining costs" to take gold out of the ground....and not just at the site level....I guess some of the larger mines have started providing these numbers....There was a good article about this on Bloomberg a while back.....and mines that were reporting the "cash costs" at around $650 per oz are now saying their "all-in sustaining costs" are around $950 per oz to take gold out of the ground....

Bloomberg article

On a side note the "cash costs" from large mining companies for silver right now is about $5.25 per oz......
Ahigh
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April 16th, 2013 at 7:41:35 AM permalink
Quote: AlanMendelson

It's like an entire country of Ahighs running to neighborhood stores on payday to buy a quarter ounce or a half ounce bar.



Wow. That was insulting.

Alan Mendelson ladies and gentlemen.



Here's some friends of mine on Facebook who live in India though.



When I was doing stunts over in East Bay of California, some of my first good friends who also liked doing stunts with me were Indian.

So maybe I do share some common passions with the Indians.

As far as the insult, it's an insult more to India than to me.

I love the Indians!! They are some of the nicest people and culture that I know.

Much nicer than the culture of people I met while living in Santa Monica.
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pacomartin
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April 16th, 2013 at 9:56:15 AM permalink
Quote: AlanMendelson

but think about this: when those same consumers in India and China and Japan are not buying gold they are also buying US dollars. Where do you think all of those $100 bills that Uncle Sam prints go? The casinos only use a fraction of them. The rest are in other countries.

the latest estimate is that 2/3 of all the $100 bills are overseas.



Production figures of the big headed Benjamins in the 17 years from Oct 1995 - Dec 2012 are 15.9712 billion notes. It is estimated that between 8-9 billion are currently in circulation, and probably more than 70% are circulating overseas. The big-headed Benjamins were designed as world currency, and probably more of them were produced then all the small headed Benjamins from 1928-1995. A total of 7.5456 billion produced are from the 2006 or 2006A series. Overseas, these are the only series that are widely used as their is a belief that North Korean counterfeits are prevalent among the 2003A ,2003, 2001, 1999 and 1996 series. There seems to be no concern about any particular series domestically. If a business does not accept the $100 banknote they are usually concerned about security concerns and draining their change supply.

The EMU is circulating roughly 600 million 500 Euro banknotes. Roughly 20%-25% of their total money supply is circulating outside of the Euro Zone. There is no official estimate by denomination, but you can presume that the 500 Euro notes dominate the foreign circulation. There is also 182 million 200 Euro notes, and 1668 million 100 Euro notes. Like the American $50 banknote, the 200 Euro note is not heavily used.

Canada has 310 million $100 notes in circulation. While many circulate outside of the country, there is no official estimate. But that is only 9 per capita for the CAD$100 while the 500 Euro note is circulating at roughly2 per capita. At present exchange rate 500 euros = CAD$667 .
Triplell
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April 23rd, 2013 at 1:46:55 PM permalink
Quote: AceCrAAckers

Quote: Triplell



Look familiar? I bet it's down to 1000-1200 by June



I'll take the bet. If it goes down to 1200 by June, I'll pay you that amount else you buy me 1 oz of gold.


Jokes on you...I didn't mention which June
AcesAndEights
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April 23rd, 2013 at 2:06:23 PM permalink
Quote: Triplell

Jokes on you...I didn't mention which June


Welcome back! Been busy?
"So drink gamble eat f***, because one day you will be dust." -ontariodealer
AceCrAAckers
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April 23rd, 2013 at 2:37:23 PM permalink
Quote: Triplell

Quote: AceCrAAckers

Quote: Triplell



Look familiar? I bet it's down to 1000-1200 by June



I'll take the bet. If it goes down to 1200 by June, I'll pay you that amount else you buy me 1 oz of gold.


Jokes on you...I didn't mention which June



It doesn't matter. It will not go below 1200 this June, next June, or June 2056. BTW, the disconnect in physical and paper price are getting larger and larger. Silver are going for $6 more than spot now and dealers are out of inventory.

Gold coins are going for $100 over spot where I am.
Edward Snowden is not the criminal, the government is for violating the constitution!
AlanMendelson
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April 23rd, 2013 at 4:18:37 PM permalink


Look at the mini reverse head and shoulders formation that started in 2008 with the "shoulder line" at just above $1000... actually it's $1030. That was the break out point for the last big run up that took gold to about $1900+ and that is the "long term support."

In a worst case thats where gold could retreat to. I doubt it. I think we saw the "worst" last week when gold hit about $1340 and bounced. I am expecting another test of $1340 and maybe $1320 in the next week, then some bouncing around until the market levels out.

The "bounce back" from week's lows is probably over. We got up to about $1425... I was expecting maybe a $100 bounce and we almost got all of it.
Ahigh
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April 25th, 2013 at 9:59:10 AM permalink
I took a swing and did a 26-hour hold on Silver to clear a little less than two grand.



I managed to stay out of this since I sold on 4/12 before the shit hit the fan on 4/15.

These metals are hot and volatile!! But it was a fun play to get most of my losses back from holding from 4/11 to 4/12 on that crazy drop.
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EvenBob
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April 25th, 2013 at 11:27:13 AM permalink
Quote: Ahigh



These metals are hot and volatile!! But it was a fun play to get most of my losses back.



You do realize of course that the buying/selling statement
you posted could be anybodies from anywhere. This is why
people seldom post their personal finances on a public
forum, there's no way to verify its actually theirs. I'm
not saying you're doing that. I'm just sayin..
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
odiousgambit
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April 25th, 2013 at 11:43:29 AM permalink
Quote: Ahigh



This is the ETF SLV? For reasons unclear to me, ETFs have at times been said to be not the best thing for speculation. Any experience of yours verify that? [if this is an ETF]

I've done very well speculating on IBM after seeing it drop an unreasonable 8%. This after selling 50 shares before the drop [purely a lucky coincidence - rebalancing]

The downside to this happy event is the fact that I own too much IBM to begin with. Thus no matter how clever I get with 25-50 shares my net worth got dragged down by the 8% drop. Ouch. Not a 52 wk low at least.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
Ahigh
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April 25th, 2013 at 12:12:10 PM permalink
It's much easier to take short-term positions on ETF's as the percentage you lose from commissions is very low.

GLD and SLV are both very liquid with $0.01 spreads. PPLT (platinum) you need to use limit orders. But I do market orders on GLD and SLV with no fear.
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odiousgambit
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April 25th, 2013 at 12:21:03 PM permalink
I spent a little time looking for this caveat, and may have stumbled across it:

Quote: link

When speculating with individual equities or currencies, as opposed to ETFs, however, the speculator may pick and choose whatever asset is desired rather than buy into a pre-selected portfolio of the many assets represented in a typical ETF.



http://www.investopedia.com/articles/exchangetradedfunds/11/speculating-with-etfs.asp

So an ETF can have too many holdings for speculation. The caveat would not seem to apply to GLD and SLV, so I think you are good; the piece otherwise thinks ETFs work well for spec-ing.

Which leaves the final question: what made you think silver would go up in 24 hours?
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
Ahigh
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April 25th, 2013 at 12:40:13 PM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

Which leaves the final question: what made you think silver would go up in 24 hours?



I'm not greedy. I saw a profit and took it. I had no idea it would go this way so quickly, but I met my percentage goal quickly and I headed for the door!

I was prepared to hold for more than 24 hours, but this outcome was fine for me.
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1arrowheaddr
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April 25th, 2013 at 1:01:07 PM permalink
What site/platform do you use for trading? Generally, I advocate buying physical, but the premiums are really high now. Nice score.
Ahigh
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April 25th, 2013 at 2:02:25 PM permalink
I recommend Ameritrade. The commissions are $9.99 and they could be less.

But I've traded all of the following platforms and Ameritrade stands head and shoulders above all of these:

* OptionsHouse
* Wells Fargo
* E*Trade
* Fidelity
* ScottTrade

My Ameritrade account was a Datek account when I opened it. Ameritrade has recently merged with Think-or-Swim. Think-or-Swim's app for option trading is the best that I have used for analyzing complex options trades with multiple legs.

Bottom line is that you can get your commissions lower (EG: OptionsHouse TRIES to be lower on options, for example, but the pricing scheme is just different and isn't even always lower).

If you get hard-core or do algorithmic trading, there are other places that beat Ameritrade. But I learned the hard way that good execution on your order is usually more important than the commission anyway. Sometimes when the markets are overwhelmed, the little guys websites can't even keep pace with the traffic. These days are when it pays off to be on Ameritrade instead of Wells Fargo, Scott Trade or some two-bit trading platform.

On Wells Fargo, I think they had $3.95 trades and I got Visual Basic errors. It was freaking hilarious.

The other thing is how long it takes to get money to and from your account.

In all cases Ameritrade for the win!

It can take more than a week just to move money to/from Fidelity for example.
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AcesAndEights
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April 29th, 2013 at 1:36:34 PM permalink
Quote: Ahigh

I recommend Ameritrade. The commissions are $9.99 and they could be less.

But I've traded all of the following platforms and Ameritrade stands head and shoulders above all of these:

* OptionsHouse
* Wells Fargo
* E*Trade
* Fidelity
* ScottTrade

My Ameritrade account was a Datek account when I opened it. Ameritrade has recently merged with Think-or-Swim. Think-or-Swim's app for option trading is the best that I have used for analyzing complex options trades with multiple legs.

Bottom line is that you can get your commissions lower (EG: OptionsHouse TRIES to be lower on options, for example, but the pricing scheme is just different and isn't even always lower).

If you get hard-core or do algorithmic trading, there are other places that beat Ameritrade. But I learned the hard way that good execution on your order is usually more important than the commission anyway. Sometimes when the markets are overwhelmed, the little guys websites can't even keep pace with the traffic. These days are when it pays off to be on Ameritrade instead of Wells Fargo, Scott Trade or some two-bit trading platform.

On Wells Fargo, I think they had $3.95 trades and I got Visual Basic errors. It was freaking hilarious.

The other thing is how long it takes to get money to and from your account.

In all cases Ameritrade for the win!

It can take more than a week just to move money to/from Fidelity for example.


As a counterpoint for more "traditional" investors, I've been very happy with Charles Schwab. The trades are generally $7.95, but as a very simple investor, I almost never pay it, due to the Schwab-branded ETFs. They are ETFs that align with all of the various indices out there, and they are free to buy and sell in a Schwab account. Most of what I do is dumping money in there to buy-and-hold large segments of the market (somewhat risk-based now since I'm young).

Anyway, I occasionally do some speculation too, but even then it's not usually more than 1 or 2 buys and then a sell. So the commission is reasonable.
"So drink gamble eat f***, because one day you will be dust." -ontariodealer
odiousgambit
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April 29th, 2013 at 1:49:07 PM permalink
Quote: AcesAndEights

I've been very happy with Charles Schwab...the Schwab-branded ETFs. They are ETFs that align with all of the various indices out there, and they are free to buy and sell in a Schwab account.



You might look into that further. No such thing as a free lunch, so, just saying ...

Quote: AcesAndEights

Most of what I do is dumping money in there to buy-and-hold large segments of the market (somewhat risk-based now since I'm young).



Congratulations for being an investor. Stay tuned for the miracle of 30 years, when you finally realize all those ups and downs you sweated through were "no never minds." I myself have not seen 40 years, which puts an investor into another universe [& fingers crossed on one's health etc]

An older investor starts to need diversity. At that stage be sure and graduate to "re-balancing" which does get you out of that "buy and hold" grind but still with the blessings of financial advisors.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
98Clubs
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April 29th, 2013 at 2:10:14 PM permalink
Nothing like a good healthy correction or haircut. If you bought in 2005, your still up 1000/oz. If you bought in the last correction (950 to 750), you have still nearly doubled.
Europe isn't cured yet, and the US mkts are getting incresed gov't manipulation, in competition with corporate manipulation. Chinese sardine cans are being labled as "Real Estate".

Not for nothing, but some of the Dow's biggest names are STILL a whopping -40% to -60% since Apr. 2007. And you're worried about GOLD???
Some people need to reimagine their thinking.
AcesAndEights
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April 29th, 2013 at 6:32:14 PM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

You might look into that further. No such thing as a free lunch, so, just saying ...


From what I can tell, the expense ratios are bargain-basement, but the bid/ask spreads are a bit higher than industry average. Since I'm just buying and not really selling, I don't worry about it too much. Or I might wait for a down day to dump in my monthly deposit...but I realize I'm getting into dangerous territory there trying to "time the market." Although with my automatic 401(k) deductions, there's no way to time anything...



Quote: odiousgambit

Congratulations for being an investor. Stay tuned for the miracle of 30 years, when you finally realize all those ups and downs you sweated through were "no never minds." I myself have not seen 40 years, which puts an investor into another universe [& fingers crossed on one's health etc]

An older investor starts to need diversity. At that stage be sure and graduate to "re-balancing" which does get you out of that "buy and hold" grind but still with the blessings of financial advisors.


Yep. I'm still young (late 20s), so it's weighted to be more risky than average right now. Although I have some money that I need in the short-term in a bond fund...2% yield dividend beats my 1% online savings account.

My aunt learned this lesson the hard way...was nearing retirement, had most of her nest egg in stocks. 2008 hit and she was just crushed. Should have re-allocated a lot of that money into low-risk bonds once retirement neared...
"So drink gamble eat f***, because one day you will be dust." -ontariodealer
odiousgambit
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April 29th, 2013 at 11:52:08 PM permalink
Quote: AcesAndEights

My aunt learned this lesson the hard way...was nearing retirement, had most of her nest egg in stocks. 2008 hit and she was just crushed. Should have re-allocated a lot of that money into low-risk bonds once retirement neared...



This happened to tons of people. Many turned angrily on the financial advice they had been getting. I always felt like betting anyone with such a complaint to find a financial adviser who would tell you to put all your money into stocks and then retire... laying odds no such person [if a pro] can be found. [edits]
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
AcesAndEights
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April 30th, 2013 at 12:16:49 PM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

This happened to tons of people. Many turned angrily on the financial advice they had been getting. I always felt like betting anyone with such a complaint to find a financial adviser who would tell you to put all your money into stocks and then retire... laying odds no such person [if a pro] can be found. [edits]


I think the problem is that many people have a one-time consult with a financial adviser. The say, "hey, for your age/profile, you should invest heavily in stocks!" So they set up their 401(k) to do that, then never go back to the financial adviser and unfortunately forget the part where he said "but you need to re-evaluate and possibly re-balance as you get older.." So they keep that allocation for the next X years, and then when it's time to retire and the stock market just had a big dump, well shit.

You gotta pay attention to this stuff. All of my 401(k) plans have had a "target retirement fund" option. Basically there's a fund for every 5 years looking 40 years into the future...e.g. "2015 retirement fund," "2020 retirement fund," all the way up to "2055 retirement fund." They handle all of that for you, re-balancing on an ongoing basis as needed. Of course, you pay for this service via a higher expense ratio and possible yearly load fees.
"So drink gamble eat f***, because one day you will be dust." -ontariodealer
nezbit
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May 6th, 2013 at 10:48:30 AM permalink
until they figure out how to make gold it will continue to go up. its rare
Ahigh
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May 6th, 2013 at 10:55:25 AM permalink
Quote: nezbit

until they figure out how to make gold it will continue to go up. its rare



Using your logic, why is Platinum the same cost per ounce as gold in general. That's a simple answer, but there is a psychological element that is stronger than the rare element.
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AZDuffman
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May 6th, 2013 at 1:09:32 PM permalink
Quote: AcesAndEights

Quote: odiousgambit

This happened to tons of people. Many turned angrily on the financial advice they had been getting. I always felt like betting anyone with such a complaint to find a financial adviser who would tell you to put all your money into stocks and then retire... laying odds no such person [if a pro] can be found. [edits]


I think the problem is that many people have a one-time consult with a financial adviser. The say, "hey, for your age/profile, you should invest heavily in stocks!" So they set up their 401(k) to do that, then never go back to the financial adviser and unfortunately forget the part where he said "but you need to re-evaluate and possibly re-balance as you get older.." So they keep that allocation for the next X years, and then when it's time to retire and the stock market just had a big dump, well shit.

You gotta pay attention to this stuff. All of my 401(k) plans have had a "target retirement fund" option. Basically there's a fund for every 5 years looking 40 years into the future...e.g. "2015 retirement fund," "2020 retirement fund," all the way up to "2055 retirement fund." They handle all of that for you, re-balancing on an ongoing basis as needed. Of course, you pay for this service via a higher expense ratio and possible yearly load fees.



I remember way back in the 80s wondering why I didn't see such options at the time. If they charge higher expenses it is a ripoff as all they need do is invest in their other funds on autopilot.
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
Maverick17
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May 16th, 2013 at 12:51:52 PM permalink
What would be a common premium to pay for small amounts of gold.

As an example, say I can buy an ounce of gold for spot + $25,

If I wanted 31 grams of gold (I know it is not exactly a troy ounce, but work with it), what would be a common premium for the smaller batch?
Statistics don't lie, they deceive.
Ahigh
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May 16th, 2013 at 1:23:14 PM permalink
Quote: Maverick17

What would be a common premium to pay for small amounts of gold.

As an example, say I can buy an ounce of gold for spot + $25,

If I wanted 31 grams of gold (I know it is not exactly a troy ounce, but work with it), what would be a common premium for the smaller batch?



Sahara Gold and Silver exchange is $70 over spot for a troy ounce.

In San Francisco, it's $50 over spot in China-Town.

You can't just buy an arbitrary amount of gold. But you can get troy ounces and 1/10th of a Troy ounce.

You can call Sahara Gold and Silver exchange and ask them how much over spot for a tenth of an ounce. They have ten-packs of 1/10th of a troy ounce each that are probably not too much more than $70 over spot for the batch, but I only know the prices off hand full one troy ounce of 24k gold.
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Maverick17
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May 16th, 2013 at 1:37:49 PM permalink
Quote: Ahigh

Sahara Gold and Silver exchange is $70 over spot for a troy ounce.

In San Francisco, it's $50 over spot in China-Town.

You can't just buy an arbitrary amount of gold. But you can get troy ounces and 1/10th of a Troy ounce.

You can call Sahara Gold and Silver exchange and ask them how much over spot for a tenth of an ounce. They have ten-packs of 1/10th of a troy ounce each that are probably not too much more than $70 over spot for the batch, but I only know the prices off hand full one troy ounce of 24k gold.



I see these little 1 gram bars on ebay all the time, and I know ebay prices are high, but the gram prices seem even higher.

I am asking because a friend of a friend is wants to sell some gram bars, but wants what I think is a pretty steep premium for it. But I am sure it costs more to make, etc, considering they are so small and wrapped in a playing card size cardboard thing.

I will probably just offer him spot for it and see if he really does need the money, and spot is a little more than the "we buy gold" guys offer around here, but just wanted to know what anyones experience is?
Statistics don't lie, they deceive.
treetopbuddy
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May 16th, 2013 at 1:57:41 PM permalink
A Goldman Sachs analyst put a 500/per once tag on gold......of course we have bullish analyst with a 2500/oz price target. I'm throwing out a radical idea.......nobody frictin knows!
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Ahigh
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May 16th, 2013 at 2:06:08 PM permalink
Quote: Maverick17

I see these little 1 gram bars on ebay all the time, and I know ebay prices are high, but the gram prices seem even higher.

I am asking because a friend of a friend is wants to sell some gram bars, but wants what I think is a pretty steep premium for it. But I am sure it costs more to make, etc, considering they are so small and wrapped in a playing card size cardboard thing.

I will probably just offer him spot for it and see if he really does need the money, and spot is a little more than the "we buy gold" guys offer around here, but just wanted to know what anyones experience is?



They offer BELOW spot when they are buying .. or right AT spot. Offering a 100% spot price to someone who WANTS to sell is totally fair!! It's a buyers' market right now with Gold. I think they offer $10 under spot for a troy ounce or something, but I forgot. It's not much below if it is below, and it may be right on spot for what a place will offer to buy.
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treetopbuddy
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May 16th, 2013 at 2:09:34 PM permalink
who doesn't like the "heft" of gold and silver.....gold is remarkable metal
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DRich
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May 16th, 2013 at 2:35:39 PM permalink
Quote: Maverick17


I will probably just offer him spot for it and see if he really does need the money, and spot is a little more than the "we buy gold" guys offer around here, but just wanted to know what anyones experience is?



My good friend has a Buy/Sell store in Vegas and they usually offer 3% below spot to people that walk in the door wanting to sell. I am sure it is negotiable, but most people showing up are desperate and just do it at 3% below.
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AZDuffman
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May 16th, 2013 at 2:36:33 PM permalink
Quote: Maverick17

What would be a common premium to pay for small amounts of gold.

As an example, say I can buy an ounce of gold for spot + $25,

If I wanted 31 grams of gold (I know it is not exactly a troy ounce, but work with it), what would be a common premium for the smaller batch?



Be careful buying small amounts for investment purposes. You can't just walk into a store and get full value at spot if they are uncertain what you are presenting. The Pawn Stars will only give you a % of spot. There are better ways.

1. Buy gold in coins. The US Eagle, Canadian Maple Leaf, and SA Krugerrand are all respected for what they claim to be in gold. The non-USA ones go slightly cheaper in the USA.
2. Just buy a contract on the NYMEX and take delivery. Do NOT try this without a good broker who knows what he is doing (ie: not some phone-jockey used to selling dog-meat stocks to widows and dentists.)
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Maverick17
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May 16th, 2013 at 2:53:12 PM permalink
Quote: AZDuffman

Be careful buying small amounts for investment purposes. You can't just walk into a store and get full value at spot if they are uncertain what you are presenting. The Pawn Stars will only give you a % of spot. There are better ways.

1. Buy gold in coins. The US Eagle, Canadian Maple Leaf, and SA Krugerrand are all respected for what they claim to be in gold. The non-USA ones go slightly cheaper in the USA.
2. Just buy a contract on the NYMEX and take delivery. Do NOT try this without a good broker who knows what he is doing (ie: not some phone-jockey used to selling dog-meat stocks to widows and dentists.)



So are you saying grams should sell for less than spot because they are so small? These are "johnson and matthey" brand bars from what I am told.

It makes sense to me the gold should be worth a little more because it is broken up into small pieces, but maybe not.

I am not buying as an investment, per se, but I have given coins and silver rounds for presents to nephews and would probably use these gram bars as a substitute for silver when they have to go find "burried treasure" for their birthdays or Christmas.
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AZDuffman
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May 16th, 2013 at 6:05:25 PM permalink
Quote: Maverick17

So are you saying grams should sell for less than spot because they are so small? These are "johnson and matthey" brand bars from what I am told.



Not exactly. You will pay more and get less. It is very rare to get pure gold unless you buy a gold coin. Gold is just too soft for most uses.

Quote:

It makes sense to me the gold should be worth a little more because it is broken up into small pieces, but maybe not.



Rick and Big Hoss will buy little pieces all day long and sell to the refineries whenever. If *you* want to buy in small pieces you will expect to pay a premium for someone to break it down. This is the same as anything you buy by volume from flour to dope.

Quote:

I am not buying as an investment, per se, but I have given coins and silver rounds for presents to nephews and would probably use these gram bars as a substitute for silver when they have to go find "burried treasure" for their birthdays or Christmas.



I'd be careful here, a gram bar can easily get lost. If you want to teach them about metals I would instead suggest getting some pre-1964 us dimes or quarters which are all silver and explain the difference.
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Ahigh
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treetopbuddy
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May 21st, 2013 at 11:01:11 AM permalink
the biggest sucker bet was the.......as fiat money supplies increase precious metals can only go up.......hehehe.........precious metals outside of there industrial/jewelry function, are stone axed primitive.....IMHO
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treetopbuddy
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May 21st, 2013 at 11:12:10 AM permalink
stone axe and their.....my grammar sucks
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EvenBob
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June 20th, 2013 at 12:51:31 PM permalink
Gold is at $1278, how low will it go.. www.goldprice.org
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P90
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June 20th, 2013 at 1:19:18 PM permalink
Not very low. Gold bubbled due to small size of the volatile supply dictating the whole market.

I'll wait for a dip under 1200 to get back into buying mode. Like I said several times, I believe 1400+/-100 to be a fair price for gold in the current situation, with maybe 50-100 higher over longer term. The economy is still in the dumpster, it's just getting deodorant sprayed on it and pretty drapes pulled over. There's zero chance of fundamentals starting to climb back up till Nov 2016, and even that is a coin toss.

1280 to 1400 is around 10% ROI, but with a lot of uncertainty as to when it's realized. I wouldn't put dips to as low as 1000 range out of the realm of possibility, just due to the volatility. The $1k psychological barrier won't get broken though.
As to the form of investment, outside of survivalism, I only consider electronic gold worth bothering with. You're simply losing way too much on transactions with physical gold.
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treetopbuddy
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June 20th, 2013 at 1:29:46 PM permalink
Would not try to catch a falling knife here......pile on the short side until trend is broken.
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EvenBob
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June 20th, 2013 at 1:31:13 PM permalink
Quote: P90

Not very low.



Unless you bought when it was $1700..
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P90
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June 20th, 2013 at 1:38:22 PM permalink
I sold before it got there...
You'd have to be gullible to look at $1700 and think, "hey, here's a good deal". Yes, that $1700 could've been scalped a bit further, but the further along you go, the greater your risk.

Good thing is, though, ETF's selling out injects more liquidity into the market, so it should stay more stable for a while.


Quote: treetopbuddy

Would not try to catch a falling knife here......pile on the short side until trend is broken.


My personal policy is to only jump on a trend when the trend is leading towards what I consider the fair value to be. E.g. with a fair value of $1,400 for gold, that means only jumping on a bull trend when it's below $1,400, only jumping on a bear trend when it's above.

The market is large and if this particular trend doesn't meet said policy - big deal, there's always another commodity to work. A lot of lost profit opportunities, but it is an extra failsafe, allowing to risk greater amounts while keeping the insurance of getting back to even long-term if it fails.

Gold is getting undervalued, it can go back up any minute. When the trend breaks, it's universally too late, else no one would ever lose on the market.
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Wizard
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June 20th, 2013 at 1:51:56 PM permalink
Quote: P90

E.g. with a fair value of $1,400 for gold,



Feature: Is It Sustainable To Mine Gold In This Current Price Environment?.

The article above says the costs to mine an ounce of gold ranges from $1,100 to $1,250.
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treetopbuddy
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June 20th, 2013 at 2:06:19 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

I thought it costs about $1,100 only to mine an ounce of gold.



If gold continues to fall, the yellow metal will be marginally profitable to mine. At some point not profitable. Development of mining properties slows which will affect supply. Yeah, 1,000 to 1,100 to get out of ground in most areas. All the easy stuff has been cherry picked worldwide. Gold mining is getting tougher and tougher. Labor and environmental issues are weighing on mining ventures.
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EvenBob
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June 20th, 2013 at 2:15:27 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Feature: Is It Sustainable To Mine Gold In This Current Price Environment?.

The article above says the costs to mine an ounce of gold ranges from $1,100 to $1,250.



This will spell doom for all the gold mining reality
shows. It was great in the last couple years when
it hovered between 1600-1800, but under 1300?
No way. Thats the 24K price. The gold they take
out of the ground falls in the 75% to 85% purity
range, so you're screwed right off the bat. Then
you have to sell it to somebody who's going to take
another hit off it it. Its worse than selling cocaine,
everybody takes a cut of it down the line.
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AlanMendelson
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June 20th, 2013 at 2:54:39 PM permalink
The recent leg in the bull market started at $1030. While I expected a correction back to $1300 I doubt a drop to $1030 is coming. I expect some base building at current levels.
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