Will Gold 'Bubble' Burst?
January 26th, 2012 at 2:20:28 PM
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Quote: WizardThanks Paco, good answer. So, if anyone is interested I'll sell for $50 above the spot price per coin. Compared to a store you'll save $84 plus sales tax.
Another advantage to buying from an individual is that for purchases above $600 (less than 1/2 ounce of gold) dealers must now fill out a 1099. See Gold Coin Sellers Angered by New Tax Law.
January 26th, 2012 at 2:37:16 PM
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Quote: pacomartinAnother advantage to buying from an individual is that for purchases above $600 (less than 1/2 ounce of gold) dealers must now fill out a 1099. See Gold Coin Sellers Angered by New Tax Law.
That provision of PPACA was repealed in April of 2011.
"So as the clock ticked and the day passed, opportunity met preparation, and luck happened." - Maurice Clarett
January 26th, 2012 at 3:49:15 PM
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its funny I ran across this thread. I swear some of my coworkers and me have this debate at least 3 times a week. Put 5 economist around a lunch table and bring up gold and you will see some fireworks, it gets heated LOL....To me, a defender of fiat currency, gold is just a shinny metal with little to no utility. Gold is a great example of a value paradox(AKA diamond-water paradox) that Adam Smith wrote about in The Wealth of Nations. Its comes down to how you determine value. There is "value in use" which measures the utility of something. The value in use of gold is probably about $50 oz, it really has no use other than being unused in some electronics. And there is "value of exchange"(an economic theory brought about by Karl Marx) this is where gold gets its $1500oz value.
This is why a gold standard is just silly if you break it down to its most basic elements. You might as well have a "famous painting standard" and back currency with the Mona Lisa, there is really no difference between doing that and backing it with gold. Gold served its purpose as a medium of exchange, but now that time has pasted. What I find funny is people who are stocking up on gold and silver in case of an economic collapse. This just seems silly to me. Why stock up on something that has no utility? You cant eat it or drink it, or tell it to plow your fields or water your crops or use it as a form of transportation. If government and law and order breaks down and you have only 25 cans of food and 10 gallons of water left for you and your family. And there is little hope of getting more anytime soon. Would you trade your food and water for a gold coin? Of course you wouldn't becasue the value of gold is purely based on confidence. Some might say it has only intrinsic value economically speaking.
But to the OP's question......Yes I think gold is heading for a rocky future. Remember in 1983 gold was $2400oz inflation adjusted. Then Paul Volcker made some changes at the Fed and it fell like a rock. The problem is now is there is a threat of deflation which will make it hard for the Fed to raise interest rates. Saying all that I still think gold is the next bubble to burst.
This is why a gold standard is just silly if you break it down to its most basic elements. You might as well have a "famous painting standard" and back currency with the Mona Lisa, there is really no difference between doing that and backing it with gold. Gold served its purpose as a medium of exchange, but now that time has pasted. What I find funny is people who are stocking up on gold and silver in case of an economic collapse. This just seems silly to me. Why stock up on something that has no utility? You cant eat it or drink it, or tell it to plow your fields or water your crops or use it as a form of transportation. If government and law and order breaks down and you have only 25 cans of food and 10 gallons of water left for you and your family. And there is little hope of getting more anytime soon. Would you trade your food and water for a gold coin? Of course you wouldn't becasue the value of gold is purely based on confidence. Some might say it has only intrinsic value economically speaking.
But to the OP's question......Yes I think gold is heading for a rocky future. Remember in 1983 gold was $2400oz inflation adjusted. Then Paul Volcker made some changes at the Fed and it fell like a rock. The problem is now is there is a threat of deflation which will make it hard for the Fed to raise interest rates. Saying all that I still think gold is the next bubble to burst.
January 26th, 2012 at 4:44:08 PM
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Quote: vert1276This is why a gold standard is just silly if you break it down to its most basic elements. You might as well have a "famous painting standard" and back currency with the Mona Lisa, there is really no difference between doing that and backing it with gold.
I am not sure why people feel that this argument is compelling. Everyone knows that something is valuable only if lots of people think it is valuable. It's like Hamlet's famous line: for there is nothing either good or bad, but thinking makes it so.
The ultimate test of this concept is Bit Coin, the the digital currency of the future. Bitcoin is not backed by any commodity at all, nor is it backed by a government. Yet it is a currency, and you can buy and sell with it, and you can grow wealthy with it.
But I don't care about the philosophical underpinnings. What I care about is the hearts and minds of billions of people. As fiat currencies grow larger and larger and touch more and more cultures, I expect the old standard to remain strong.
Not because it is rational, but because it is traditional.
January 26th, 2012 at 5:08:20 PM
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Quote: pacomartinI am not sure why people feel that this argument is compelling. Everyone knows that something is valuable only if lots of people think it is valuable..
no......... some things are value becasue they have a "use value" Like food or water or medicine or transportation or a computer ect ect. Gold have little to no value of use.
January 26th, 2012 at 7:03:48 PM
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Quote: vert1276no......... some things are value becasue they have a "use value" Like food or water or medicine or transportation or a computer ect ect. Gold have little to no value of use.
I didn't think you would take me so literally. Of course, you need food, water and air to live.
But, food, water, and medicine have only limited value as "money". They are the things you buy with money.
Money is something that is valuable, fungible, divisible, transportable and widely accepted. Food, water, and medicine can be bartered, but an economy cannot grow beyond primitive stages on barter. You can't support modern day populations on a barter economy.
Primitive money concepts like cattle, or salt are also limited.
Arguing that the world will one day wake up and think that gold is just a metal of limited use, makes just as much sense as arguing that suddenly people won't take banknotes because they are just pieces of paper that cost less than a dime to produce. Banknotes are backed by the good faith of the country issuing them, and gold is backed by 10,000 years of human civilization that valued it. Neither of these concepts will vanish overnight.
There is some advantage to going away from banknotes and coins entirely. You don't have to worry about making change. You don't have to worry about someone breaking into your store or bar and stealing your cash. Nobody can mug you for money. You have some record of every transaction, so if you are kidnapped and people are trying to empty your account, there is a record. Drug transactions, prostitution, and other illegal activities are much harder. Most people assume mobile phones can be adapted to monetary exchange.
The two first world countries with the smallest dependence on notes and coins are New Zealand and Iceland. Because they are relatively small they make some of the greatest use of electronic purchasing. Should either of these countries decide to eliminate notes and coins entirely, I expect you will see an increased popularity in purchasing gold coins.
January 26th, 2012 at 9:02:30 PM
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Quote: Scotty71Did you really pay sales tax for what is essentially a bullion purchase?
No. I bought them in Delaware, a sales tax free state.
Quote: Scotty71If you want to express your gold opinion and make some serious $$ buy some long dated puts on GLD they will be relatively cheap and if you are right you would probably see a 50:1 payoff minimum.
Thanks for the suggestion. I'd like to do that. Can the average Joe do that with an Ameritrade account?
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
January 27th, 2012 at 7:28:39 AM
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Quote: WizardNo. I bought them in Delaware, a sales tax free state.
Thanks for the suggestion. I'd like to do that. Can the average Joe do that with an Ameritrade account?
Yes, just get approval for options. In fact for fun If you put on the trade, I will take the other side by selling the puts. I love options as they are a pure Zero Sum game.
when man determined to destroy himself he picked the was of shall and finding only why smashed it into because."
— E.E. Cummings
February 2nd, 2012 at 9:38:09 PM
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Ya it will
February 28th, 2012 at 2:51:47 PM
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Quote: Triplell
Look familiar? I bet it's down to 1000-1200 by June
That graph doesn't really tell the full story, as USD has lost value over this time as well. Compare to
which shows the nominal price of gold, as well as the price in 1971 dollars and 2011 dollars (price is per-gram, not per-ounce).
It has still gone up, obviously, but it's not as dramatic when you take into account inflation.
"So drink gamble eat f***, because one day you will be dust." -ontariodealer
February 28th, 2012 at 3:15:10 PM
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For the price to fall again, there needs to some certainty in the world: Europe and the US must resolve their budget deficit issues; Iran and Syria should calm.
-----
You want the truth! You can't handle the truth!
February 28th, 2012 at 5:39:44 PM
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Quote: WizardWhat doesn't make sense to me regarding the current price is that it costs only about $400 to mine an ounce of gold...
The $400/oz in production costs seemed low to me, so I thought I check to see what was out there. Found the following report from Q1 of 2011:
ABN_Amro_Gold_Mine_Cost
As of a year ago, this report said average cost of production was at $620 and had risen 12.5% over the previous 12 months. Median cost of production was a lower $583 and looks to have risen 6% in last 12 months.
I don't know how to quantify the fact that the higher gold prices have likely impacted higher cost producers/mines to join the party. Or are we running out of lower cost production reserves? Likley a combination of both.
I would take the over $750 side of the proposition were I to put money on it based on the production costs alone. When you throw in prospective inflation based on all the dollars & euros that are being spent/printed to prop us up now, it seems like once we gain 12-18 months more traction in the economy, inflation is a foregone conclusion.
I think the real bubble is in US Treasuries with the 10 year paying sub 2%. Of course, I have been thinking interest rates would go up significantly for a while now......guess my crystal ball isn't that clear either!
February 29th, 2012 at 9:29:01 PM
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Gold fell 100 bucks an ounce today. I personally believe it is just a correction and has room for a lot more upside. In my opinion, gold should never be looked at as an investment. It is just a trade...gold and the gold stocks were hot in the 30's, 70's, and right now. Seems like every 30-40 years or so it happens. I guess those who got burned by gold never touch it again and you need about 30 years to find new suckers to play the game who were not previously burned by it. Warren Buffet missed 100% of the dot coom boom and 100% of the bust. But those who played it right made a killing. Gold will eventually burst and Warren Buffet will say he was right, but those who play it right will make millions. The public is not all in on the trade so that is why I think there is much more room to go. We shall see.
February 29th, 2012 at 9:35:59 PM
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Five percent in one day.
It's actually a reaction to the strengthening US economy.
It's coming back up in hong kong right now...
It's actually a reaction to the strengthening US economy.
It's coming back up in hong kong right now...
In a bet, there is a fool and a thief.
- Proverb.
February 29th, 2012 at 9:37:52 PM
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Quote: pokerproGold will eventually burst and Warren Buffet will say he was right, but those who play it right will make millions.
It has to burst, it has no choice. Its a fake value, just like the
housing market was. Soros and Buffet got out of gold with a huge
profit, thats why they're so rich. Their greed never overrides their
common sense.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
February 29th, 2012 at 11:44:07 PM
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I answered the Whats the price of Gold on 01/01/13 question already.
Its the stupid economy. About all this country has had going for it in the past 15 years is Management, Housing, Heavy equipment, and Aerospace.
Hosuing is screwed.
Heavy Equipment/Aerospace still going with reduced work-force.
Management still going with reduced work-force.
Reduced work-force has translated into a 9% Unemployment by payments, and estimated 16% including those not collecting.
Housing is screwed via betting pools upon the mortgage, and we lost the paperwork. Unemployment translates into fewer paying mortgages, and the "Principal only" method of buying a house w/o mortgage. Housing is an Industry at the forefront of the economy during the past 15 years.
Take a look at the gold-price charts when the economy was rippin. Gold actually fell of a shelf and went lower until 2004. But then word got out about sub-prime mortgages, and since then, the price of gold has acted in inverse to the mortgage disaster. Also of note is a jump in Crude-Oil prices towards the middle/late 2005. Both charts clearly (IMHO) show a shift in investing... that Gold/Oil (Commodities of any type, physical/tangibles) became money, and related to Currency index valuations and Currencies in general.
My point here is if you were early, say 2003 to 2005, and put the usual 20-25% into gold as a balanced portfolio, you're not selling now, just like you haven't already sold.
Where the market goes, so does Gold, because Gold is the Hedge. To a lesser and more volitile extent Silver/Oil. If you're new to all this thought, and want to play, try using NatGas. There is an abundance, but between storage, liquification, and announced curtailments of supply/transfer, the future is brighter. I'll also toss-in that fracking is not your neighbor's best friend, and will drive up costs. With NatGas about $2.60 ish, this is as cheap as coal, without the labor/insurance.
Obviously, if you're just new to the Gold market, DO NOT EXPECT PAST PERFORMANCE TO CONTINUE. I mean $500 in 2005 to $1700 now... are you betting on $5000 by 2019? Are you even thinking that far ahead? Those that balance themselves with a good job, good education, and investment saavy don;t play day-by-day, or Hedge their investments (BET AGAINST THEMSELVES).
Its the stupid economy. About all this country has had going for it in the past 15 years is Management, Housing, Heavy equipment, and Aerospace.
Hosuing is screwed.
Heavy Equipment/Aerospace still going with reduced work-force.
Management still going with reduced work-force.
Reduced work-force has translated into a 9% Unemployment by payments, and estimated 16% including those not collecting.
Housing is screwed via betting pools upon the mortgage, and we lost the paperwork. Unemployment translates into fewer paying mortgages, and the "Principal only" method of buying a house w/o mortgage. Housing is an Industry at the forefront of the economy during the past 15 years.
Take a look at the gold-price charts when the economy was rippin. Gold actually fell of a shelf and went lower until 2004. But then word got out about sub-prime mortgages, and since then, the price of gold has acted in inverse to the mortgage disaster. Also of note is a jump in Crude-Oil prices towards the middle/late 2005. Both charts clearly (IMHO) show a shift in investing... that Gold/Oil (Commodities of any type, physical/tangibles) became money, and related to Currency index valuations and Currencies in general.
My point here is if you were early, say 2003 to 2005, and put the usual 20-25% into gold as a balanced portfolio, you're not selling now, just like you haven't already sold.
Where the market goes, so does Gold, because Gold is the Hedge. To a lesser and more volitile extent Silver/Oil. If you're new to all this thought, and want to play, try using NatGas. There is an abundance, but between storage, liquification, and announced curtailments of supply/transfer, the future is brighter. I'll also toss-in that fracking is not your neighbor's best friend, and will drive up costs. With NatGas about $2.60 ish, this is as cheap as coal, without the labor/insurance.
Obviously, if you're just new to the Gold market, DO NOT EXPECT PAST PERFORMANCE TO CONTINUE. I mean $500 in 2005 to $1700 now... are you betting on $5000 by 2019? Are you even thinking that far ahead? Those that balance themselves with a good job, good education, and investment saavy don;t play day-by-day, or Hedge their investments (BET AGAINST THEMSELVES).
Some people need to reimagine their thinking.
February 29th, 2012 at 11:51:09 PM
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Quote: 98ClubsObviously, if you're just new to the Gold market, DO NOT EXPECT PAST PERFORMANCE TO CONTINUE. I mean $500 in 2005 to $1700 now... are you betting on $5000 by 2019?
I think it is unrealistic to expect exponential growth to continue for the long term. But that doesn't mean that it will necessarily drop back to production prices.
March 1st, 2012 at 12:37:02 AM
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Quote: pokerprothose who played it right made a killing.
Very few play it 100% right, or well enough to make a real killing. That's not to say there arent good days and I did well: I withdrew all the money I put in gold many times over, it was like an ATM machine that woudnt go dry. To play it better though, I would have put more money in to begin with, or failing that, put more in later. And I shouldnt have taken it all out in November like I did? That is still a question mark, I am either going to look like a fool or a genius, time will tell.
I will get back in. Looking for the big, big drop. If governments like China will quit buying gold that may be the key.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
March 1st, 2012 at 6:23:41 AM
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Quote: odiousgambitI will get back in. Looking for the big, big drop..
Thats the greedy gambler in you talking. You should be
satisfied with the money you made and not worry about
what you could have made. Thats why Soros and the
rest are always on top, they buy low and sell high, but
aren't unhappy that they didn't sell at the highest. The
people who try and always do that get burnt big eventually.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
March 1st, 2012 at 8:41:27 AM
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Quote: EvenBobThats why Soros and the
rest are always on top, they buy low and sell high,.
Having read a number of Soros' books it appears that he is more of a trend investor rather than a value finder like Warren Buffet. His theory of "reflexivity" in financial markets explains this: "Investors' observation of and participation in the capital markets may at times influence valuations and fundamental conditions or outcomes."
The value of gold may come down but the price of Gold in USD will not drop significantly. There would have to be revolution in the way our government and the Federal Reserve conducts business. Right now our policy to get out of debt is to create more debt. I believe we have passed the point of no return and long term outlook for USD is bad, really bad.
100% risk of ruin
March 1st, 2012 at 8:49:29 AM
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Quote: boymimboFor the price to fall again, there needs to some certainty in the world: Europe and the US must resolve their budget deficit issues; Iran and Syria should calm.
I would argue the opposite. The US dollar acts as a safe haven causing it's value to rise in times of war and economic uncertainty (see EUR/USD, XAU/USD after Lehman bros.) If there is a widespread conflict in the middle east the price of gold in US dollars would actually drop.
100% risk of ruin
March 1st, 2012 at 10:43:39 AM
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Then the demand is foreign, not national, money that won't return until spent HERE... its just circulating in a closed loop outside OUR economy, as a reference.
Some people need to reimagine their thinking.
March 1st, 2012 at 9:25:47 PM
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On 12 January 2012 the Chinese National Bank reported 5.07 trillion yuan (up 13.8% from the previous year). That is $804 billion US dollars. That is far ahead of Russia, India, and the U.K.
The Chinese may join the EU, USA, and Japan in the club with fiat currency worth over trillion dollars (US). There is a lot of discussion that the Chinese are trying to procure some gold to partially back their currency.
That could easily drive the price of gold skyward.
The Chinese may join the EU, USA, and Japan in the club with fiat currency worth over trillion dollars (US). There is a lot of discussion that the Chinese are trying to procure some gold to partially back their currency.
That could easily drive the price of gold skyward.
March 1st, 2012 at 10:11:53 PM
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In order for something to be in a bubble, there must be a mass buying for the purpose of selling in the near future at a huge profit. Who do you know, who is buying gold? Who is buying silver?
There are cash for gold places, but I do not see mass hysteria of people buying silver/gold. In order for gold to be in a bubble, people must stop buying. When did people start buy? This is not happening.
Wiz as for the price of gold coin, selling at spot is a fair price. US gold coin is 99.9% pure. The mint adds a little bit of silver to add luster to the American Eagle. Maples are 99.99% pure. For sell person to person, spot is fair. As a coin collector, I am willing to pay more if I buy from a store because the business owner has additional costs, i.e. rent/electric/employees etc. When I buy from a regular seller, I want to buy at a lower price.
There are cash for gold places, but I do not see mass hysteria of people buying silver/gold. In order for gold to be in a bubble, people must stop buying. When did people start buy? This is not happening.
Wiz as for the price of gold coin, selling at spot is a fair price. US gold coin is 99.9% pure. The mint adds a little bit of silver to add luster to the American Eagle. Maples are 99.99% pure. For sell person to person, spot is fair. As a coin collector, I am willing to pay more if I buy from a store because the business owner has additional costs, i.e. rent/electric/employees etc. When I buy from a regular seller, I want to buy at a lower price.
Edward Snowden is not the criminal, the government is for violating the constitution!
March 7th, 2012 at 4:23:20 PM
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Someone IS buying/selling/trading. Typically marketbots that look for pennies per trade, and there's a wealth of pennies to be made in all aspects of the market.
MARKETBOT: a tool used by high-speed traders having free or minimal transaction costs, sometimes also called BLUFFED BIDS, that wait for any gap in trading to put in a below-market bid, with the effect of recovering the difference. BLACK THURSDAY was an organized attempt at controlling the markets this way. Obviously the largest Brokerage houses have clients that use them, as on Black Thursday, many stocks went into free-fall for an hour or two exposing the BOT's/BLUFF operation.
MARKETBOT: a tool used by high-speed traders having free or minimal transaction costs, sometimes also called BLUFFED BIDS, that wait for any gap in trading to put in a below-market bid, with the effect of recovering the difference. BLACK THURSDAY was an organized attempt at controlling the markets this way. Obviously the largest Brokerage houses have clients that use them, as on Black Thursday, many stocks went into free-fall for an hour or two exposing the BOT's/BLUFF operation.
Some people need to reimagine their thinking.
March 7th, 2012 at 4:59:33 PM
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By the way, I sold two of my gold coins to a forum member (I'm not sure he wants to be identified) on March 2, based on a spot price of $1710. The price has dropped $24 since then. Time will tell who was right. I still have two more gold coins (Maple Leaf and Kugerand) I'll sell for $40 above spot each if anyone is interested.
I think we'll hear that bubble popping any time now.
I think we'll hear that bubble popping any time now.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
March 7th, 2012 at 5:39:04 PM
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That's a very good price you got. I have 17 1 oz. silver coins (U.S. Silver Eagles), and I can't get anywhere near spot for them. (The price tanked now anyways).Quote: WizardBy the way, I sold two of my gold coins to a forum member (I'm not sure he wants to be identified) on March 2, based on a spot price of $1710. The price has dropped $24 since then. Time will tell who was right. I still have two more gold coins (Maple Leaf and Kugerand) I'll sell for $40 above spot each if anyone is interested.
I think we'll hear that bubble popping any time now.
"Dice, verily, are armed with goads and driving-hooks, deceiving and tormenting, causing grievous woe." -Rig Veda 10.34.4
March 7th, 2012 at 11:29:10 PM
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Quote: WizardBy the way, I sold two of my gold coins to a forum member (I'm not sure he wants to be identified) on March 2, based on a spot price of $1710. The price has dropped $24 since then. Time will tell who was right. I still have two more gold coins (Maple Leaf and Kugerand) I'll sell for $40 above spot each if anyone is interested.
I think we'll hear that bubble popping any time now.
Eh, no problem. That would be me :). We both saved some money on the deal, as I paid less than I would to a dealer, and he got more than he would by selling to a dealer.
As I explained to the Wiz, I already own some precious metals (2 oz of gold, 200 oz of silver) that I bought several years ago, and am planning on adding a bit more silver, then calling my stash good for now. I'm not planning on selling any of it soon, as I'm not looking at the PMs as a short- or long-term investment, just as a hedge against hyperinflation and financial disaster. Even with the high prices now, I still see that possible scenario in the future just likely enough that I wanted to add to my hedge, even at premium prices.
"So drink gamble eat f***, because one day you will be dust." -ontariodealer
March 8th, 2012 at 6:25:50 AM
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2 oz.. Of gold and 200 oz.of silver isn't much of a hedge against anything.
Total value less than $12,000
Just sayin...
Total value less than $12,000
Just sayin...
In a bet, there is a fool and a thief.
- Proverb.
March 8th, 2012 at 10:23:54 AM
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Quote: WongBo2 oz.. Of gold and 200 oz.of silver isn't much of a hedge against anything.
Total value less than $12,000
Just sayin...
Well that's true, which is why I'm buying more. I now have 4 oz of gold and looking to go up on the silver as well. Also one of my new years resolutions was to purchase a handgun this year, which may not exactly appreciate in value, but in a post-apocalyptic world, it will definitely be worth more than any fiat currency.
"So drink gamble eat f***, because one day you will be dust." -ontariodealer
March 8th, 2012 at 11:50:01 AM
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Quote: AcesAndEightsWell that's true, which is why I'm buying more. I now have 4 oz of gold and looking to go up on the silver as well. Also one of my new years resolutions was to purchase a handgun this year, which may not exactly appreciate in value, but in a post-apocalyptic world, it will definitely be worth more than any fiat currency.
A gold coin that weight 10 per troy ounce is only slightly heavier than a penny, and 20 per troy ounce would weigh less than a dime. I know that some people who are planning for a post apocalyptic world are purchasing these small gold coins since they believe that they will be acceptable as currency for relatively small purchases.
March 8th, 2012 at 12:12:07 PM
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dead cat bounce?
http://www.goldprice.org/spot-gold.html
http://www.goldprice.org/spot-gold.html
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
March 8th, 2012 at 12:59:15 PM
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Per capita at 1.2 billion population thats US$670.00
Lets say the US Fed Res. has triple the Chinese equivilent US$804B... call it US$2.4T but its divided by about 320Million. Thats $7500.00 per capita.
Lets say the US Fed Res. has triple the Chinese equivilent US$804B... call it US$2.4T but its divided by about 320Million. Thats $7500.00 per capita.
Some people need to reimagine their thinking.
March 8th, 2012 at 1:02:09 PM
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Quote:dead cat bounce?
http://www.goldprice.org/spot-gold.html
Perhaps switching to OTHER currencies is more appropriate. Some do not have same shape... Note the Russian ruble, possible bot-trades.
Longer-term, if you think this action is shoulder and head, forming another shoulder, I won't argue... and that is cause for concern amongst long positions.
Some people need to reimagine their thinking.
March 8th, 2012 at 1:54:36 PM
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I think all collectible US coins except the 2c and the 20c piece are still legal tender in the US. Does that mean I can bring $50 in gold US coins and buy a Mercedes and say I paid $50 for it?
Gambling is a metaphor for life. Hang around long enough and it's all gone.
March 8th, 2012 at 4:24:01 PM
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Quote: pacomartinA gold coin that weight 10 per troy ounce is only slightly heavier than a penny, and 20 per troy ounce would weigh less than a dime. I know that some people who are planning for a post apocalyptic world are purchasing these small gold coins since they believe that they will be acceptable as currency for relatively small purchases.
Yeah I'd like to get a hold of some of the British Sovereign coins, which are about a quarter ounce and would be easier to trade. Also my parents have a bunch of pre-1965 US silver coins that my grandfather hoarded back in the day, and I'm trying to convince them to sell them to me instead of to a dealer. They already sold a roll or 2 of the old quarters, but still have a bunch of half-dollars, dimes, and Morgan/Liberty dollars left.
"So drink gamble eat f***, because one day you will be dust." -ontariodealer
March 8th, 2012 at 4:46:54 PM
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The old 20-franc coins are .1867 ounces. Nice, fractional coins if you can find them for near-bullion prices.
March 8th, 2012 at 4:57:41 PM
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Quote: 98ClubsPer capita at 1.2 billion population thats US$670.00
Lets say the US Fed Res. has triple the Chinese equivilent US$804B... call it US$2.4T but its divided by about 320Million. Thats $7500.00 per capita.
It's not that high for the US. Latest figure is $1,089 B or just under $3,500 per capita (but most of it circulates overseas) . My point was not so much that the Chinese currency is high on a per capita basis, it just means that it is soon to be equal with the three major currencies (en total). The desire to put it on a more equal footing, and not just on just fixed to the dollar, means that the government will be looking for ways to make it more independent. One way is to invest in some gold. The long term (10-20 years) may make that investment pay off.
That is a lot of currency if your big banknote is only worth US$15.84 and the rest of the banknotes are worth $3.17 or less. It may be by design, but I bet there are very few large cash transactions
The decision of the United States to circulate 10 billion $1 notes is considered foolhardy by most developed nations, all of which have replaced similar size denominations with a coin. So in comparison, China is circulating hundreds of billions of notes.
March 10th, 2012 at 3:10:29 AM
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Why Gold will Surge to $3800
China's Central Bank Recommends Gold For "Value Preservation" - Forbes
Investing in Gold: An irrational exuberance?-Forbes
Goldbugs will say we will (and every other fiat currency) will always increase the currency in circulation at a rate higher than GDP growth. Hence fiat currency will always decrease in value next to commodities.
Currency in Circulation (CURRCIR)
Source(s): Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
China's Central Bank Recommends Gold For "Value Preservation" - Forbes
Investing in Gold: An irrational exuberance?-Forbes
Goldbugs will say we will (and every other fiat currency) will always increase the currency in circulation at a rate higher than GDP growth. Hence fiat currency will always decrease in value next to commodities.
| Date | Billions | Yearly |
|---|---|---|
| 1929-01-01 | $4.46 | |
| 1931-01-01 | $4.41 | -0.60% |
| 1939-01-01 | $6.71 | 5.40% |
| 1943-01-01 | $15.40 | 23.07% |
| 1947-01-01 | $28.54 | 16.68% |
| 1948-01-01 | $28.39 | -0.52% |
| 1957-01-01 | $31.04 | 0.99% |
| 1965-01-01 | $39.05 | 2.91% |
| 1969-01-01 | $49.78 | 6.26% |
| 1981-01-01 | $133.84 | 8.59% |
| 1985-01-01 | $180.04 | 7.70% |
| 1989-01-01 | $243.44 | 7.83% |
| 1993-01-01 | $330.33 | 7.93% |
| 1997-01-01 | $443.32 | 7.63% |
| 2001-01-01 | $584.01 | 7.13% |
| 2005-01-01 | $749.19 | 6.43% |
| 2009-01-01 | $886.34 | 4.29% |
| 2012-01-01 | $1,068.54 | 6.43% |
Currency in Circulation (CURRCIR)
Source(s): Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
March 10th, 2012 at 3:33:11 AM
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note the stupidity of the 1931 deep-in-depression decision to shrink the money supply.
the feeling at the time was that you treat a country the same way you treat a profligate person who has gone bankrupt. Such a person has to take himself to hard task and live within a strict budget, not spending more than he makes, and should take steps to keep himself away from money he shouldnt be spending.
Wrong fix for a nation, we have learned. Except the Glenn Becks.
the feeling at the time was that you treat a country the same way you treat a profligate person who has gone bankrupt. Such a person has to take himself to hard task and live within a strict budget, not spending more than he makes, and should take steps to keep himself away from money he shouldnt be spending.
Wrong fix for a nation, we have learned. Except the Glenn Becks.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
March 13th, 2012 at 12:45:10 PM
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My My
Stock market is shooting up but old yeller may be seeking a landing place.
Stock market is shooting up but old yeller may be seeking a landing place.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
March 14th, 2012 at 5:38:23 AM
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Some of the "wealth-oriented" Stocks in my pf are doing quite well, as is the Old Greenwich money type. Others based on commodities have had a good run, but are now looking sluggish.
I am looking for a pull-back in Au, and I also expect that some older investments like mine, that were pf based, may liquidate. Once the old money leaves, thats it for Au, and it might drop to 2008 levels of 800-950. At THAT level Au might look good if Europe hasn't gotten its crap together, and it will spur Eastern (India, China) buying.
I am looking for a pull-back in Au, and I also expect that some older investments like mine, that were pf based, may liquidate. Once the old money leaves, thats it for Au, and it might drop to 2008 levels of 800-950. At THAT level Au might look good if Europe hasn't gotten its crap together, and it will spur Eastern (India, China) buying.
Some people need to reimagine their thinking.
April 4th, 2012 at 2:11:25 PM
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Anybody else watching gold? It closed on Mon at $1677
and today at $1620. Thats down $57 in 2 days, an 11 week
low. And it should be well into the $1500's by the end of
the week.
and today at $1620. Thats down $57 in 2 days, an 11 week
low. And it should be well into the $1500's by the end of
the week.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
April 3rd, 2013 at 6:26:36 PM
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Where will this end up? Since last fall its gone
down 13%, $237 an ounce.
down 13%, $237 an ounce.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
April 11th, 2013 at 7:42:28 PM
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Quote: EvenBobWhere will this end up? Since last fall its gone
down 13%, $237 an ounce.
It will be interesting what happens over/under 1500 the next few days. Moving into a pendant pinch point so who know... will have to wait and see what price action does.
April 11th, 2013 at 8:22:46 PM
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Quote: WizardYES! I've had this argument lots of times. At any given time there is always some fad investment, and now it is gold. Before that is was houses. Before that it was the NASDAQ. Before that it was junk bonds and penny stocks. Before that it was gold. I may be missing some periods of time.
If anyone disagrees I have four 1-oz. gold coins I'd like to sell at the fair market price. You'll save about $500 in sales tax.
I'll buy your remaining two coins if you still have them. I've been buying bullion at Sahara Coin at $70 over spot and in San Francisco for $50 over spot. But $40 over spot for a coin would be cool.
I've just got two 1-ounce bars so far, but I'm enjoying the process of accumulating on the downturn.
aahigh.com
April 12th, 2013 at 12:40:47 PM
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Quote: AhighI'll buy your remaining two coins if you still have them. I've been buying bullion at Sahara Coin at $70 over spot and in San Francisco for $50 over spot. But $40 over spot for a coin would be cool.
I've just got two 1-ounce bars so far, but I'm enjoying the process of accumulating on the downturn.
I'm hoping it will drop even more, I really want to get some more, but not at this price.
"So drink gamble eat f***, because one day you will be dust." -ontariodealer
April 12th, 2013 at 12:46:55 PM
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I sold all my metals at a loss today. I'm OUT!!!
aahigh.com
April 12th, 2013 at 12:50:43 PM
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Quote: AhighI'll buy your remaining two coins if you still have them.
Okay. I have one Maple Leaf and one Kugerand (sp?). $40 over spot each. Just say the word and I'll fetch them out of my safe deposit box.
If and when gold gets under $700 or so I'll start buying.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
