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WongBo
WongBo
Joined: Feb 3, 2012
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February 21st, 2012 at 11:06:02 AM permalink
Quote: HotBlonde

I dont think anyone on here gives two shits about you. And no one wants to talk about a witch. Why don't you mind your own business?



Classic narcissism...

Social comparison information is especially salient as the narcissist processes social information
In terms of its relevance to the self, that is, he reacts to negative feedback
with more anger and aggression and lower self-esteem than a non-narcissist.
In a bet, there is a fool and a thief. - Proverb.
kmumf
kmumf
Joined: Jul 5, 2011
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February 21st, 2012 at 11:12:52 AM permalink
Quote: WongBo

Classic narcissism...

Social comparison information is especially salient as the narcissist processes social information
In terms of its relevance to the self, that is, he reacts to negative feedback
with more anger and aggression and lower self-esteem than a non-narcissist.



You are the one on camping trips that dumps gallons of gas on a fire.
thecesspit
thecesspit
Joined: Apr 19, 2010
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February 21st, 2012 at 11:13:43 AM permalink
Quote: DorothyGale

You can toss me in a river and see if I float ...
...
--Ms. D.



I prefer weighing people against a duck.
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
DorothyGale
DorothyGale
Joined: Nov 23, 2009
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February 21st, 2012 at 12:34:22 PM permalink
Quote: thecesspit

I prefer weighing people against a duck.


CROWD: The pond! Throw her into the pond!
BEDEVERE: What also floats in water?
VILLAGER #1: Bread!
VILLAGER #2: Apples!
VILLAGER #3: Uh, very small rocks!
VILLAGER #1: Cider!
VILLAGER #2: Uh, gra-- gravy!
VILLAGER #1: Cherries!
VILLAGER #2: Mud!
VILLAGER #3: Uh, churches! Churches!
VILLAGER #2: Lead! Lead!
ARTHUR: A duck!
CROWD: Oooh.
BEDEVERE: Exactly. So, logically...
VILLAGER #1: If... she... weighs... the same as a duck,... she's made of wood.
BEDEVERE: And therefore?
VILLAGER #2: A witch!
VILLAGER #1: A witch!
CROWD: A witch! A witch!...
VILLAGER #4: Here is a duck. Use this duck. [quack quack quack]
BEDEVERE: Very good. We shall use my largest scales.
"Who would have thought a good little girl like you could destroy my beautiful wickedness!"
HotBlonde
HotBlonde
Joined: Feb 8, 2011
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February 21st, 2012 at 12:46:26 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

HB doesn't seem interested in the in-progress wagering. I'll drop the subject until somebody approaches my window with a bet or a counter-offer.

I'm not sure I understand what this is all about. PM me.
OFFICIALLY and justifiably reclaimed my title as SuperHotBlonde!
Scotty71
Scotty71
Joined: Mar 5, 2011
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February 21st, 2012 at 12:53:39 PM permalink
Quote: DorothyGale

Am I the only one who wonders at the obvious narcissism of this thread? Let's all talk about me for 40 weeks ...

--Ms. D.



+100

I wish HB all the best but I could care less about the details.
when man determined to destroy himself he picked the was of shall and finding only why smashed it into because." E.E. Cummings
buzzpaff
buzzpaff
Joined: Mar 8, 2011
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February 21st, 2012 at 1:15:27 PM permalink
Toto was a wonderful dog, but in no way comparable to the " The horse of a different color."
AcesAndEights
AcesAndEights
Joined: Jan 5, 2012
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February 21st, 2012 at 1:27:24 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

HB doesn't seem interested in the in-progress wagering. I'll drop the subject until somebody approaches my window with a bet or a counter-offer.


Trying to wrap my head around this...more as a mental exercise because I would like to be better at sports wagering, and sometimes have a tough time working out the conversion between percentages and lines/odds in my head.

So the line started at -900, meaning all of the money in action currently is 9 to win 1 (from our perspective, not HBs). This implies that those making the bets believed HB had a less than 10% chance to successfully complete the challenge. For a 9 to 1 lay, this is the breaking point. If you thought HB had a better than 10% chance, then it would have been a bad bet to make at -900.

Now that HB has shown remarkable success in the early going, the line should obviously change. Personally, I believe HB will still fail (sorry HB), based on 2 factors
1) Losing weight early on, when you have more weight to lose, is easier, and
2) It is hard to stick to this kind of regimen over 40 weeks. I know HB has stated that she is loving it and has no problem sticking to it, but 40 weeks is a long time. 6 down, 34 to go! This is just my opinion, and if it inspires you to work even harder and achieve your goal, HB, then awesome!

Now, what would be a fair line to get additional money into action? HB has definitely shown some resolve and I think anyone would be foolish to stick to the original 10% chance of success. Personally, I'd put her current chances at...just under 40%? That would make the line 3 to 2 against HB, or -150. So for someone like me who thinks she has a less than 40% chance of successfully completing the challenge, -150 would be a fair line.

Sorry if the above seems pretty elementary to the more experienced gamblers on the board, but it was a good mental exercise for me.

Personally I would be more interested in futures bets. Will HB's weight be over or under 160 lbs. on October 17, 2013? I'm not going to venture a line on that one :)
"So drink gamble eat f***, because one day you will be dust." -ontariodealer
buzzpaff
buzzpaff
Joined: Mar 8, 2011
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February 21st, 2012 at 1:46:48 PM permalink
Predicting HB probability at this point in time is like trying to predict the Kentucky Derby winner by who is leading at the 1/4 pole.
Or clocking the Wiz at the 5th floor of the Stratosphere Tower race and trying to predict his final time.

The race is not always to the swift, but that's the way to bet them. LOL
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
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February 21st, 2012 at 2:06:11 PM permalink
Side bet... who will weigh less on October 17, HB or DG?

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