Is AP'ing worth it anymore?

Axel you’re an enormous troll lol

Quote: lilredrooster

.


yeah, I've read quite a few of KewlJ's posts at different places

in the last one I saw he stated his top bet was $1K

for me - his story is really hard to believe - that he can get away with this for so long

all of the big casinos have to know who he is - and they're going to let him keep beating up on them endlessly______?

I guess it's possible - but the Managers at these casinos are not stupid - it would seem they would have to be for his stories to all be true

he started posting here in 2012 - I wanna here about this from somebody else

it's now getting close to 50 years of casino experience with counters


.
link to original post

I believe he said he usually leaves after putting out a max bet. If one is only playing 30 or 45 minutes he would probably be very forgettable. It also tells me that he is probably not beating them for very much on the days he does win. When you walk away with $1000 or so there is not much for the pit to get worked up about. I also assume he doesn't win on every visit. If we assume he wins about $100k a year and he is visiting 4 to 5 casinos most casinos would not get wise to that. Making $20k to $25k per casino over lets call it 100 visits to each is not that much money.

Quote: DRich

Quote: lilredrooster

.


yeah, I've read quite a few of KewlJ's posts at different places

in the last one I saw he stated his top bet was $1K

for me - his story is really hard to believe - that he can get away with this for so long

all of the big casinos have to know who he is - and they're going to let him keep beating up on them endlessly______?

I guess it's possible - but the Managers at these casinos are not stupid - it would seem they would have to be for his stories to all be true

he started posting here in 2012 - I wanna here about this from somebody else

it's now getting close to 50 years of casino experience with counters


.
link to original post

I believe he said he usually leaves after putting out a max bet. If one is only playing 30 or 45 minutes he would probably be very forgettable. It also tells me that he is probably not beating them for very much on the days he does win. When you walk away with $1000 or so there is not much for the pit to get worked up about. I also assume he doesn't win on every visit. If we assume he wins about $100k a year and he is visiting 4 to 5 casinos most casinos would not get wise to that. Making $20k to $25k per casino over lets call it 100 visits to each is not that much money.
link to original post

you might be right
but back counting and then putting out a $1K bet when the the true count is +8 - and then winning and walking away
and that's not going to get noticed________?__________the PB is often watching and knows when a lot of small value cards have come out
lots of dealers are wise to counters too - and can earn brownie points with the PB by wising him up
and doing this same thing for what now_______15 years_____?________20 years_______?
and they're not going to wonder about why a guy betting $1K doesn't have a player's card_________?
it's all just a little bit much for me to swallow
I dunno

.

Quote: lilredrooster

[
you might be right
but back counting and then putting out a $1K bet when the the true count is +8 - and then winning and walking away
and that's not going to get noticed________?__________the PB is often watching and knows when a lot of small value cards have come out
lots of dealers are wise to counters too - and can earn brownie points with the PB by wising him up
and doing this same thing for what now_______15 years_____?________20 years_______?
and they're not going to wonder about why a guy betting $1K doesn't have a player's card_________?
it's all just a little bit much for me to swallow
I dunno

My guess is his average win per casino is probably only around $300 on visits when he does win. Then on to the next casino.

Quote: PokerGrinder

Axel you’re an enormous troll lol
link to original post

I wasn't trolling, I was dead seriouse.

If one knows losing 5k on BJ will get back 2250, it's +EV. Not to be confused with losing 5k in value to get back 2250. That's obviously dumb. I assume if he's counting he is gaining +EV.

Even if he's playing at -EV, he isn't giving up much, unless he's grinding out many hours at smaller levels.

Quote: DRich

Quote: lilredrooster

.


yeah, I've read quite a few of KewlJ's posts at different places

in the last one I saw he stated his top bet was $1K

for me - his story is really hard to believe - that he can get away with this for so long

all of the big casinos have to know who he is - and they're going to let him keep beating up on them endlessly______?

I guess it's possible - but the Managers at these casinos are not stupid - it would seem they would have to be for his stories to all be true

he started posting here in 2012 - I wanna here about this from somebody else

it's now getting close to 50 years of casino experience with counters


.
link to original post

I believe he said he usually leaves after putting out a max bet. If one is only playing 30 or 45 minutes he would probably be very forgettable. It also tells me that he is probably not beating them for very much on the days he does win. When you walk away with $1000 or so there is not much for the pit to get worked up about. I also assume he doesn't win on every visit. If we assume he wins about $100k a year and he is visiting 4 to 5 casinos most casinos would not get wise to that. Making $20k to $25k per casino over lets call it 100 visits to each is not that much money.
link to original post

He’s mentioned his casino rotation is 15 casinos or so.

Quote: lilredrooster

Quote: DRich

Quote: lilredrooster

.


yeah, I've read quite a few of KewlJ's posts at different places

in the last one I saw he stated his top bet was $1K

for me - his story is really hard to believe - that he can get away with this for so long

all of the big casinos have to know who he is - and they're going to let him keep beating up on them endlessly______?

I guess it's possible - but the Managers at these casinos are not stupid - it would seem they would have to be for his stories to all be true

he started posting here in 2012 - I wanna here about this from somebody else

it's now getting close to 50 years of casino experience with counters


.
link to original post

I believe he said he usually leaves after putting out a max bet. If one is only playing 30 or 45 minutes he would probably be very forgettable. It also tells me that he is probably not beating them for very much on the days he does win. When you walk away with $1000 or so there is not much for the pit to get worked up about. I also assume he doesn't win on every visit. If we assume he wins about $100k a year and he is visiting 4 to 5 casinos most casinos would not get wise to that. Making $20k to $25k per casino over lets call it 100 visits to each is not that much money.
link to original post

you might be right
but back counting and then putting out a $1K bet when the the true count is +8 - and then winning and walking away
and that's not going to get noticed________?__________the PB is often watching and knows when a lot of small value cards have come out
lots of dealers are wise to counters too - and can earn brownie points with the PB by wising him up
and doing this same thing for what now_______15 years_____?________20 years_______?
and they're not going to wonder about why a guy betting $1K doesn't have a player's card_________?
it's all just a little bit much for me to swallow
I dunno

.
link to original post

You’d be surprised to learn that the majority of dealers and pit bosses are completely clueless. As someone who used to count and worked as a dealer when I was 19 I can say that casino employees both don’t care and aren’t smart enough to realize what’s up. Obviously there are outliers but I’m talking the majority.

Quote: AxelWolf

Quote: PokerGrinder

Axel you’re an enormous troll lol
link to original post

I wasn't trolling, I was dead seriouse.

If one knows losing 5k on BJ will get back 2250, it's +EV. Not to be confused with losing 5k in value to get back 2250. That's obviously dumb. I assume if he's counting he is gaining +EV.

Even if he's playing at -EV, he isn't giving up much, unless he's grinding out many hours at smaller levels.
link to original post

Ok first off, he didn’t know what if anything he would get back from the casino for his play. He is 100% playing a losing game whether he counts or not because he has said that he doesn’t raise his bets with the count and doesn’t know the indices. Tony is a long time ploppy who wins at poker and dumps on recreational gambling. Obviously you know that I know how to maximize offers from casinos but what I’m saying is Tony was degenning and got offers vs Tony knew he could play x amount of time and lose x amount of ev to gain x amount of offers.

Quote: PokerGrinder

Quote: AxelWolf

Quote: PokerGrinder

Axel you’re an enormous troll lol
link to original post

I wasn't trolling, I was dead seriouse.

If one knows losing 5k on BJ will get back 2250, it's +EV. Not to be confused with losing 5k in value to get back 2250. That's obviously dumb. I assume if he's counting he is gaining +EV.

Even if he's playing at -EV, he isn't giving up much, unless he's grinding out many hours at smaller levels.
link to original post

Ok first off, he didn’t know what if anything he would get back from the casino for his play. He is 100% playing a losing game whether he counts or not because he has said that he doesn’t raise his bets with the count and doesn’t know the indices. Tony is a long time ploppy who wins at poker and dumps on recreational gambling. Obviously you know that I know how to maximize offers from casinos but what I’m saying is Tony was degenning and got offers vs Tony knew he could play x amount of time and lose x amount of ev to gain x amount of offers.
link to original post

Perhaps, but you guys dogged him regarding the information he laid out. At that point he never said how he played it or if he got the offers.

Let's take a look.
You"Wow amazing ap play there Tony. Lose $5-6k and get back $5100 in free bets that are worth half their value…"

Bill "Lose money on every play, but make it up with volume. That sounds like a plan.
The only thing better than having a plan is having a good one."

Both of your comments made it seem as if this was a -EV situation and totally dumb to even consider. If I had to guess, you guys didn't actually think about it. You saw the" lose 5-6k and get back 2250" and thought, how dumb.

i never said anything about not knowing any indices. i know all the ones that come up constantly and matter. so i use them to decide whether to hit 12 v 4, 15 vs 10, etc. this is why knowing the count helps, or u will end up just doing basic strategy (and playing the hand wrong). i just dont want to take insurance because it gives away im counting. but i will on the machine if its plus 3 or higher because on the machine vs a live table, no pit boss is watching. of course thats if im in a place such as Laughlin where the machine can actually be counted. most cant.

if im in a casino using a card i have never been to, i assume ill get good mailers if i lose big. this is why i was pissed that so far after dropping over 10k the palms gave me almost nothing for my loss. granted i never talked to a host, but still all i ever got was an email offering me 2 nites 3 times and 3 20 dollar free bet coupons. and i lost over 11k that month. a good 25% of my net worth.