Is this forum dead?
But what does this loathsome barely there insect-like activity amount to?
1) Posts (not so much threads) by old-time members stating that there is no way to beat the casino short of BJ card counting or schemes to drain casino player cards of free play and promotions, low level schemes they call "AP."
2) Posts (and occasional threads) on how new members must be former banned members.
3) Did I mention (1) already? Well then, two only so far....
3) RANTS
4) Off-topic threads such as about how to lose weight or what did you eat today that have nothing to do with gambling.
That covers about 90% of the content here these days.
Occasionally you get a real world review of a casino or casino gambling trip, but if any review or story claims any sort of win, the "four legs good, two legs bad" crowd steps in quickly with (1), which is again, that there is no way to beat the casino short of BJ card counting or schemes to drain casino player cards of free play and promotions, low level schemes they call "AP."
Quote: MDawgIt's like an ant you stepped on as a child, just enough to allow the ant to still stir not enough to smash kill it entirely.
But what does this loathsome barely there insect-like activity amount to?
1) Posts (not so much threads) by old-time members stating that there is no way to beat the casino short of BJ card counting or schemes to drain casino player cards of free play and promotions, low level schemes they call "AP."
2) Posts (and occasional threads) on how new members must be former banned members.
3) Did I mention (1) already? Well then, two only so far....
3) RANTS
4) Off-topic threads such as about how to lose weight or what did you eat today that have nothing to do with gambling.
That covers about 90% of the content here these days.
Occasionally you get a real world review of a casino or casino gambling trip, but if any review or story claims any sort of win, the "four legs good, two legs bad" crowd steps in quickly with (1), which is again, that there is no way to beat the casino short of BJ card counting or schemes to drain casino player cards of free play and promotions, low level schemes they call "AP."
You forgot
5) Formerly banned members coming back under different socks with more drivel to add to the fodder.
6) Members claiming they have put billions through the casino betting 2-15k a hand. (Nobody believes this FYI)
Quote: MDawgIt's like an ant you stepped on as a child, just enough to allow the ant to still stir not enough to smash kill it entirely.
I used to rescue ants that had fallen into the swimming pool. Perhaps you should look for something more interesting to read if you're bored.
By the way, I'm quite sure there are several members here who actually walk the walk, they just keep their mouths shut. Do you expect them to broadcast their secrets, for free?
Wake me up when you post something more interesting.
Quote: PokerGrinderThis is fun
6) Members claiming they have put billions through the casino betting 2-15k a hand. (Nobody believes this FYI)
Not saying I believe it, but the numbers aren't as daunting as you might think. $1B handle is 333 5 hour sessions at 60 hands/hour and $10k/hand.
I am not sure what your definition of "low-level AP" is. What works works.
If AP moves must net millions to be big-level well see what happens with that. Most likely the casino will take you to civil court ala Phil Ivey
Big AP move.
But if he is forced to give it back or denied his winnings better to stick with the "low-level AP"
Now if you think high-level AP is complicated Oceans 11 stuff (but legal) something the average AP couldn't think of I remember coming up with this really complicated motion picture process for the labs back in my Hollywood days.
I thought I was hot crap about to change the wheel
The lab techs said my new process would work. And it would save customers money. But it was too damn complicated and confusing to operate.
Sometimes simple "low-level" is preferred. Keeping it simple means keeping it successful in many instances
Michael Shackleford is respected and highly thought of in gaming and non-gaming circles. He is one of the go-to people the media calls on for a gambling story. So it seems odd that he has allowed the forum to go this route. After all, it is his name still associated with the forum, not the casino bonus group that owns it.
Quote: PokerGrinderThis is fun
6) Members claiming they have put billions through the casino betting 2-15k a hand. (Nobody believes this FYI)
You should go back to the thread on how to lose weight, or what you ate today. As I said before, the fact that you don't believe it tells me that you've never played much in your life, because a handle over a B isn't even such a big thing.
And if I wanted to make up a story I think I could come up with a better one than "I used to play average 3000 a hand stopped for about a decade now play about 300 a hand."
Quote: MDawg
And if I wanted to make up a story I think I could come up with a better one than "I used to play average 3000 a hand stopped for about a decade now play about 300 a hand."
I thought this was some massive reverse martingale you hit on.
Start out with 3000 a hand and in a decade work your way down to 300 a hand
Quote: darkozI also wish there was more gambling related content. The forum sometimes doesn't have interesting content
You're pretty interesting.
Quote: rdw4potusNot saying I believe it, but the numbers aren't as daunting as you might think. $1B handle is 333 5 hour sessions at 60 hands/hour and $10k/hand.
Easy peasy, no trouble whatsoever.
Mdawg all your posts are braggadocious. You answer peoples thread questions and it always ends up about how big you used to play. I swear you get off to your own stories or something.
And far as truth or not truth, what would prove it? A pic of huge stacks of money with a handwritten MDAWG Post-It next to the stacks? A pic of $50K in chips pulled out at the casino with a handwritten MDAWG Post-It next to the chips? A pic of stacks of paid $10K markers with a handwritten MDAWG Post-It next to the markers? What would any of those prove? Not that I won. And would I really want an internet forum to get to know me that well?
I read that thread here about the lion tamer guy, SiegfriedRoy and his million dollar win. I mentioned at the end of the thread some numbers from a few of my past trips, and how what he posted might be true. Apparently the Wiz logged into his Player Account and saw the million win and still you guys didn't believe him. So why would any intelligent person bother to prove anything to an internet forum, especially to this crowd?
But getting back to what PokerGrinder said, that's about it, spot on. It's fun to relate one's past. If one's past was fun.
Quote: onenickelmiracleI read some posts and got disinterested. Not dead yet, because I'm here and you're here. Waste of time discussing the reasons why there might be less to talk about. Maybe the site should have things about online gambling casinos they advertise about.
I have a simple solution. Bring back Mickey.
1:45 Bye Felicia
Did you ever do a follow up on that situation? If not, I think you should. That might be a bad example to prove your case.Quote: MDawgIt is pretty dead I think though. I've now been here about a year, I don't think I could imagine sticking with it for years if it remains at the level it is at today.
And far as truth or not truth, what would prove it? A pic of huge stacks of money with a handwritten MDAWG Post-It next to the stacks? A pic of $50K in chips pulled out at the casino with a handwritten MDAWG Post-It next to the chips? A pic of stacks of paid $10K markers with a handwritten MDAWG Post-It next to the markers? What would any of those prove? Not that I won. And would I really want an internet forum to get to know me that well?
I read that thread here about the lion tamer guy, SiegfriedRoy and his million dollar win. I mentioned at the end of the thread some numbers from a few of my past trips, and how what he posted might be true. Apparently the Wiz logged into his Player Account and saw the million win and still you guys didn't believe him. So why would any intelligent person bother to prove anything to an internet forum, especially to this crowd?
But getting back to what PokerGrinder said, that's about it, spot on. It's fun to relate one's past. If one's past was fun.
" oh ya, well I didnt want to be here anyways."Quote: MDawgIt is pretty dead I think though. I've now been here about a year, I don't think I could imagine sticking with it for years if it remains at the level it is at today.
Not getting all the accolades and attention you seek. And no one's buying it eh?
Participating is voluntary. So is not participating. If you're bored, move on.
Quote: beachbumbabsI never understand why people start a thread like this
Quote: PokerGrinderIt’s like at my parents store, my mom gets so irritated when people come up and tell her that the prices are too high. If they are too high then go away, if the forum isn’t interesting enough for you, go away. I can guarantee nobody will miss you Mdawg.
Now you are just being mean.
Quote: billryanNow you are just being mean.
Statisticians can't help it.
They always looking for the mean
Quote: rdw4potusNot saying I believe it, but the numbers aren't as daunting as you might think. $1B handle is 333 5 hour sessions at 60 hands/hour and $10k/hand.
With an expected value of negative a few million dollars. But he really won a fraction of a percent on that billion dollar handle without doing anything to change the house advantage. Explain how that is believable?
Quote: MDawg1) Posts (not so much threads) by old-time members stating that there is no way to beat the casino short of BJ card counting or schemes to drain casino player cards of free play and promotions, low level schemes they call "AP."
Most people here believe that any casino game with a player advantage is a great way to beat the casinos. Many of us also realize there are lots of different ways to do this that are constantly coming and going. Blackjack is simply one of the oldest and probably the most well documented.
Quote: MDawg2) Posts (and occasional threads) on how new members must be former banned members.
This is generally only true when the new members are former banned members
Quote: TomGWith an expected value of negative a few million dollars. But he really won a fraction of a percent on that billion dollar handle without doing anything to change the house advantage. Explain how that is believable?
He informed us in an earlier thread what strategies led him to overcome the house edge, pressing his bet on hot streaks and walking away when he’s ahead
Quote: TomG
This is generally only true when the new members are former banned members
Nothing like unity
We should all "banned" together.
Quote: TomGWith an expected value of negative a few million dollars. But he really won a fraction of a percent on that billion dollar handle without doing anything to change the house advantage. Explain how that is believable?
there are hundreds of people all over different internet sites claiming they beat negative expectation games with progressions, bet selection techniques or intuition
it gets really, really tiring to read these stories - only the most naive believe them - although it is possible some won great amounts due to luck and mistakenly believe they have special skills
Quote: michael99000He informed us in an earlier thread what strategies led him to overcome the house edge, pressing his bet on hot streaks and walking away when he’s ahead
Quote: TomGWith an expected value of negative a few million dollars. But he really won a fraction of a percent on that billion dollar handle without doing anything to change the house advantage. Explain how that is believable?
Variance?
How many hands at an average of $3k before you must see negative overall EV?
Quote: AyecarumbaVariance?
How many hands at an average of $3k before you must see negative overall EV?
One. Assuming there is a positive house advantage. Would be awesome if MD could explain how he is able to turn the house advantage into a player advantage. But doubtful he would ever contribute something of quality like that
Badly worded question.Quote: AyecarumbaVariance?
How many hands at an average of $3k before you must see negative overall EV?
The EV is the Expected Value. It is negative from the first hand.
The ‘’must’’ term seems to imply the poster is looking for a certainty (understand ‘high probability’ for the mathematically educated) of losing. That probability is independent from the size of wager. The number of hands needed is proportional to the ratio EV/SD.
MDawg claims $2B handle in $50K hands. That is about 40,000 hands. Even playing a very low edge game (say 0.5% without AP) and very high standard deviation (say 3), you have a Z of 200*0.005/3 = .33. The prob is quite high (~37%) of having a positive result in the end.
So we can imagine he did do well, and suffered from the delusion that luck was in fact skill.
—
On this July 14 Revolution Day, let me add my profound disgust for filthy rich who gamble in one hand an amount I spend almost two years in earning. Bring back the guillotine !
If there’s better than a 1 in 3 chance that after cycling $2B, a player at a low house edge game would still have a positive bankroll, then maybe MDAWG deserves an apology from the “Not Possible” crowd.
100 x 100 = 10,000
25 x 25 = 625 x 4 = 2500
Actually, if you want to get brutally honest, even the first half of the above isn't an absolute because jump your bet around enough while winning at BJ, or be suspected of counting cards at BJ whether winning or losing, and you'll get the boot. Been there, been booted.
But there is a big difference between saying that something is impossible versus improbable. The posters here that I have recently chosen to ignore jump right in with the "impossible" chant, and that's what gets threadbare.
Quote: MDawgIntrinsically, the statement that - there is no way to beat the casino short of BJ card counting or schemes to drain casino player cards of free play and promotions, low level schemes they call "AP" - is flawless. How may one argue with it?
Actually, if you want to get brutally honest, even the first half of the above isn't an absolute because jump your bet around enough while winning at BJ, or be suspected of counting cards at BJ whether winning or losing, and you'll get the boot. Been there, been booted.
But there is a big difference between saying that something is impossible versus improbable. The posters here that I have recently chosen to ignore jump right in with the "impossible" chant, and that's what gets threadbare.
But why the disdain for AP?
Why call it low-level? I suppose if you are referring to stakes its low-level.
The casinos treat low-level AP's like the plans to the death star were stolen. Its a super high serious priority.
Quote: RSHow is it that you won again? I don’t remember the thread(s) tbh. What was your strategy or angle
Much of the credit for his winnings comes from playing at big tables where players all play well and know not to take the dealers bust card.
Quote: kubikulannMDawg claims $2B handle in $50K hands. That is about 40,000 hands. Even playing a very low edge game (say 0.5% without AP) and very high standard deviation (say 3), you have a Z of 200*0.005/3 = .33. The prob is quite high (~37%) of having a positive result in the end.
So we can imagine he did do well, and suffered from the delusion that luck was in fact skill.
Great stuff. Thanks. With 40,000 hands there is a two-to-one chance he is down. But to get the the "billions" in handle required a lot more than 40,000 hands. More like +400,000 based on the other stuff he's written
the odds that any of this is true is in the billions to 1.Quote: TomGGreat stuff. Thanks. With 40,000 hands there is a two-to-one chance he is down. But to get the the "billions" in handle required a lot more than 40,000 hands. More like +400,000 based on the other stuff he's written
But with these guys their response to others is based on some disappointments setbacks they must have sustained in their lives, such that now, they lash out at anyone who claims to be doing more than they achieved. You may positively feel the seething resentment in their posts. Not healthy. You'll also notice them taking turns getting forum suspended. The "four legs good, two legs bad crowd" are an envious lot. It's sad actually, and as long as people like that are given any stock, this forum will remain in the doldrums. I'd advise you all to put them on Ignore the way I have. When was the last time any one of them contributed any interesting content?
Quote: MDawgThis group that I ignore (don't bother posting anything related to me, I won't respond unless I happen to read your post by accident) whom I call the "four legs good, two legs bad crowd," and really it's just a few maybe four or so posters here, are making a mostly psychological response to the content here. You gotta understand that these are five dollars players or non-players, for whom anyone who has anything as in any measure of success at anything inculcates a jealousy and envy response. That is why they are against DarkO for example, not because they think he couldn't be doing what he is doing, but because he's doing more than they are, staying at home broke. Does it make someone less important because he has less than another? No, not intrinsically.
But with these guys their response to others is based on some disappointments setbacks they must have sustained in their lives, such that now, they lash out at anyone who claims to be doing more than they achieved. You may positively feel the seething resentment in their posts. Not healthy. You'll also notice them taking turns getting forum suspended. The "four legs good, two legs bad crowd" are an envious lot. It's sad actually, and as long as people like that are given any stock, this forum will remain in the doldrums. I'd advise you all to put them on Ignore the way I have. When was the last time any one of them contributed any interesting content?
The sad part is you don't even know why people don't like darkoz.
