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TomG
TomG
Joined: Sep 26, 2010
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July 13th, 2019 at 12:11:44 PM permalink
Quote: MDawg

1) Posts (not so much threads) by old-time members stating that there is no way to beat the casino short of BJ card counting or schemes to drain casino player cards of free play and promotions, low level schemes they call "AP."



Most people here believe that any casino game with a player advantage is a great way to beat the casinos. Many of us also realize there are lots of different ways to do this that are constantly coming and going. Blackjack is simply one of the oldest and probably the most well documented.

Quote: MDawg

2) Posts (and occasional threads) on how new members must be former banned members.



This is generally only true when the new members are former banned members
michael99000
michael99000
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July 13th, 2019 at 1:03:58 PM permalink
Quote: TomG

With an expected value of negative a few million dollars. But he really won a fraction of a percent on that billion dollar handle without doing anything to change the house advantage. Explain how that is believable?




He informed us in an earlier thread what strategies led him to overcome the house edge, pressing his bet on hot streaks and walking away when he’s ahead
darkoz
darkoz
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July 13th, 2019 at 1:04:11 PM permalink
Quote: TomG




This is generally only true when the new members are former banned members



Nothing like unity

We should all "banned" together.
For Whom the bus tolls; The bus tolls for thee
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
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July 13th, 2019 at 1:25:27 PM permalink
Quote: TomG

With an expected value of negative a few million dollars. But he really won a fraction of a percent on that billion dollar handle without doing anything to change the house advantage. Explain how that is believable?



there are hundreds of people all over different internet sites claiming they beat negative expectation games with progressions, bet selection techniques or intuition

it gets really, really tiring to read these stories - only the most naive believe them - although it is possible some won great amounts due to luck and mistakenly believe they have special skills
𝘱𝘢𝘵𝘳𝘪𝘰𝘵: 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘱𝘦𝘳𝘴𝘰𝘯 𝘸𝘩𝘰 𝘤𝘢𝘯 𝘩𝘰𝘭𝘭𝘦𝘳 𝘭𝘰𝘶𝘥𝘦𝘴𝘵 𝘸𝘪𝘵𝘩𝘰𝘶𝘵 𝘬𝘯𝘰𝘸𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘩𝘦 𝘪𝘴 𝘩𝘰𝘭𝘭𝘦𝘳𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘢𝘣𝘰𝘶𝘵............. ᴍᴀʀᴋ ᴛᴡᴀɪɴ
MaxPen
MaxPen
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July 13th, 2019 at 1:29:13 PM permalink
Quote: michael99000

He informed us in an earlier thread what strategies led him to overcome the house edge, pressing his bet on hot streaks and walking away when he’s ahead


Ayecarumba
Ayecarumba
Joined: Nov 17, 2009
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July 13th, 2019 at 2:28:56 PM permalink
Quote: TomG

With an expected value of negative a few million dollars. But he really won a fraction of a percent on that billion dollar handle without doing anything to change the house advantage. Explain how that is believable?



Variance?

How many hands at an average of $3k before you must see negative overall EV?
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
TomG
TomG
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July 13th, 2019 at 2:42:03 PM permalink
Quote: Ayecarumba

Variance?

How many hands at an average of $3k before you must see negative overall EV?



One. Assuming there is a positive house advantage. Would be awesome if MD could explain how he is able to turn the house advantage into a player advantage. But doubtful he would ever contribute something of quality like that
kubikulann
kubikulann
Joined: Jun 28, 2011
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Thanks for this post from:
AyecarumbaMDawg
July 13th, 2019 at 4:47:27 PM permalink
Quote: Ayecarumba

Variance?

How many hands at an average of $3k before you must see negative overall EV?

Badly worded question.
The EV is the Expected Value. It is negative from the first hand.

The ‘’must’’ term seems to imply the poster is looking for a certainty (understand ‘high probability’ for the mathematically educated) of losing. That probability is independent from the size of wager. The number of hands needed is proportional to the ratio EV/SD.

MDawg claims $2B handle in $50K hands. That is about 40,000 hands. Even playing a very low edge game (say 0.5% without AP) and very high standard deviation (say 3), you have a Z of 200*0.005/3 = .33. The prob is quite high (~37%) of having a positive result in the end.
So we can imagine he did do well, and suffered from the delusion that luck was in fact skill.


On this July 14 Revolution Day, let me add my profound disgust for filthy rich who gamble in one hand an amount I spend almost two years in earning. Bring back the guillotine !
Last edited by: kubikulann on Jul 14, 2019
Reperiet qui quaesiverit
Ayecarumba
Ayecarumba
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Thanks for this post from:
MDawg
July 13th, 2019 at 7:26:32 PM permalink
Thank you. It should have read, “ How many hands before you must see the effects of negative EV? Certainly, variance allows some players to experience wins in the “short” term, but eventually, the house edge will assert itself. The question is, how many hands will it take?

If there’s better than a 1 in 3 chance that after cycling $2B, a player at a low house edge game would still have a positive bankroll, then maybe MDAWG deserves an apology from the “Not Possible” crowd.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
ChumpChange
ChumpChange
Joined: Jun 15, 2018
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July 13th, 2019 at 8:31:51 PM permalink
Guess I need 4 x 25 hand bankroll sessions per 10,000 hands of blackjack, or is that per 2500 hands?
100 x 100 = 10,000
25 x 25 = 625 x 4 = 2500

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