ScubaDicin
ScubaDicin
Joined: May 11, 2019
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May 11th, 2019 at 10:09:32 AM permalink
Iím new but noticed thereís not a lot of info on the odds of streaks, ie. whatís the odds of losing 10 games of Yahtzee in a row for example?
MDawg
MDawg
Joined: Sep 27, 2018
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May 11th, 2019 at 11:16:43 AM permalink
In probability each event has an independent likelihood - whatever happened the hand (or spin or roll) before in a game of chance has no bearing on what happens the next hand.

However, let's consider a game of cards where the cards are set in the deck, in this case the positive count or flow of the cards, whatever you may call it, may increase the likelihood of a win, and in such a case, there might be an over all greater likelihood of wins, and hence also a greater likelihood of a winning streak. Everyone agrees on at least that, such as in for example the game of BJ with reference to a positive count.

If I were to take a deck of cards and stack them carefully so that in a two player game of BJ the dealer lost ten hands in a row, then the unknowing dealer coming into the game might think that he has the usual house advantage plus a 50% chance of winning each hand, when in reality, he has a 0% chance of winning ten hands, and I have a 100% chance of winning each hand and a 100% chance of a ten win streak. Although no one "stacks the deck" which would be cheating, this is essentially what happens in a card game streak whether Baccarat or BJ, the cards have been arranged so that one side will win for a number of hands. Recognizing that a streak is in progress and pushing your bet, is something that winning gamblers are able to take advantage of. By pushing your bet no matter when the streak ends you are coming out ahead. At a minimum, getting up and leaving after a good streak, may work too. Now this last paragraph of mine contains ideas that not everyone here will agree on, but my play has worked for me.
I tell you itís wonderful to be here, man. I donít give a damn who wins or loses. Itís just wonderful to be here with you people.
ScubaDicin
ScubaDicin
Joined: May 11, 2019
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May 11th, 2019 at 11:21:59 AM permalink
Thanks I appreciate it.
OnceDear
Administrator
OnceDear
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May 11th, 2019 at 11:35:46 AM permalink
Quote: MDawg

Recognizing that a streak is in progress and pushing your bet, is something that winning gamblers are able to take advantage of. By pushing your bet no matter when the streak ends you are coming out ahead. At a minimum, getting up and leaving after a good streak, may work too. Now this last paragraph of mine contains ideas that not everyone here will agree on, but my play has worked for me.



For such a longstanding, high stakes, supposedly successful player, you don't half have some wrong ideas and spout some total mis-information.

" By pushing your bet no matter when the streak ends you are coming out ahead. ". So, you sit and watch a winning streak 'develop' and push your bet. You may lose. You may not come out ahead.
Take care out there. Spare a thought for the newly poor who were happy in their world just a few days ago, but whose whole way of life just collapsed..
MDawg
MDawg
Joined: Sep 27, 2018
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May 11th, 2019 at 11:43:30 AM permalink
By the third hand/win, I'm gone! I'm ahead no matter what. I don't usually jump on a streak late, maybe I am just lucky, maybe I have a good sense for where the clutch is.

Anyway, as I said, for whatever reason my win/losses so far at all the casinos since 2018 are wins, no losses. And as you may know from reading my posts I took a long break from gambling, so my prior play was over a decade ago, and there over all, ahead. Back then too, got banned for a while from BJ, which if you're an expert, shouldn't have to tell you what that means. Luckily after a couple years the ban was somehow forgotten as casino ownerships changed, and not taken up at other casinos.

So anyway, you guys do whatever I do what has worked for me.
Last edited by: MDawg on May 11, 2019
I tell you itís wonderful to be here, man. I donít give a damn who wins or loses. Itís just wonderful to be here with you people.
7craps
7craps
Joined: Jan 23, 2010
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May 11th, 2019 at 12:18:10 PM permalink
Quote: ScubaDicin

Iím new but noticed thereís not a lot of info on the odds of streaks,

but there is, unless it has been removed. streaks of Heads in a row, Tails in a row, Pass line bet wins in a row, Roulette Red in a row losses. more than I care to think about.
what specifically are you looking for?
Quote: ScubaDicin

ie. whatís the odds of losing 10 games of Yahtzee in a row for example?

I do not play Yahtzee. can one play by themselves? do you have to play against another?
Is there a strategy to the game.
what is a loss?
what is the probability of winning?

This site is not a Yahtzee site, but there has been some Y math done here.

what specifics about losing Yahtzee can you offer?

the 'math' of streaks is real simple
one needs to start with the probability of winning/losing and how many games to play totally and what length of streak is desired.

if you only play 10 games of Y and the prob of losing 1 game is 45%, the probability of losing all 10 games = .45^10
using a pari/gp calculator
gp > (45/100)^10
%1 = 3486784401/10240000000000
gp > 1.*%1
%2 = 0.00034050628916015625000000000000000000000
gp > 1/%2
%3 = 2936.8
%1 is an exact answer, %2 is the answer as a decimal and %3 is the '1 chance in' result

does this help more than hurt?
winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)
ScubaDicin
ScubaDicin
Joined: May 11, 2019
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May 11th, 2019 at 1:01:04 PM permalink
Wow! Thanks a lot for your answer! I appreciate it. I tried searching for streaks but it didnít come up. Probably did something wrong. I did find the information on Yahtzee but not to the question you just answered for me.
Pity you never played Yahtzee. You should try it. Itís been my favorite game for 45 years.
So to answer your questions yes you could play by yourself but it would be boring. Itís vs 1 other player. Whoever has the highest dice total at the end of 13 rounds wins. There are multiple combinations that yield different point totals so literally itís possible but not probable to score 1,000 points in a game. I donít have any idea what an average score is but Iíd say 215 points. I also donít know what the chance of winning is either? But Iíve read that if you win over 60% and you average 250 points a game thatís really good. Thereís a lot of strategy to it because you never know what your next roll is going to be. So do you take 3 of a kind on the 2nd roll or chance it and try and get a 4 of a kind? In addition, the tougher the combination is to roll, like a Yahtzee, which is 5 dice all with the same number, yields the highest point total which is 50 points.
DogHand
DogHand
Joined: Sep 24, 2011
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May 11th, 2019 at 1:36:48 PM permalink
Here's a site where you can play Yahtzee:

https://cardgames.io/yahtzee/

Enjoy!

Dog Hand
ScubaDicin
ScubaDicin
Joined: May 11, 2019
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May 11th, 2019 at 2:04:45 PM permalink
Thanks Dog hand! I never knew there was an online version of the game. I play it all the time with the app.

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