beachbumbabs
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July 13th, 2018 at 6:21:06 AM permalink
Quote: MaxPen

I don't see where it is legendary. The last guy with kings should have laid them down. He had to know he was at best tied. He was gambling. I feel like I have seen this many times.

Maybe PokerGrinder can make a comment?



You're not wrong. But him reading the table wrong and betting anyway is part of what makes it legendary. He HAD to think one or both of the others had AA, it's not that uncommon, but he shoved anyway.

I think his single biggest factor was that the 2nd guy wasn't all in unless he put him all in, and if he read them BOTH with AA, he had more outs with the other 2 kings possible and straight draws, though wouldn't win a flush. He knew he was FT no matter what as the biggest stack there, with a big pay jump (I think). Wanted to put both of them out.

Also worth noting this was a snapshot of guys who'd played some hands together and maybe didn't have as good a read on each other as they should have. The AA guy totally snaked them coming in soft to start.

But, yeah, PG would be a great commenter, and several others on here.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
TigerWu
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July 13th, 2018 at 2:09:53 PM permalink
Craps and Roulette will be in Oklahoma on August 2nd. Sports wagering possibly within a year.

I'm hoping to take a trip out to the local Hard Rock some time in August, so I'll definitely do some kind of trip report.

Oklahoma casinos generally suck because our gaming laws are awful, but if they can slowly claw their way to compete with "real" casinos in other states, I welcome the changes.
GWAE
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July 13th, 2018 at 6:57:06 PM permalink
Quote: beachbumbabs

Nobody has commented on this 2018 Main Event hand last night. It's just sick. Legendary, Even.

Don't read anything. Watch the video.first.

https://deadspin.com/an-utterly-ludicrous-hand-determined-the-world-series-o-1827549219/amp



https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/questions-and-answers/gambling/31136-who-wants-to-do-the-math-on-this-wsop-hand-to-go-to-the-final-table/#post660734
Expect the worst and you will never be disappointed. I AM NOT PART OF GWAE RADIO SHOW
gamerfreak
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July 15th, 2018 at 9:42:01 AM permalink
Mini TR....

I took an Uber with a friend to Parx casino around 3AM on a whim.

This was the first time I’ve taken an Uber trip that went through a toll road. I offered Toll money to both drivers who picked us up that evening, but they both refused and said it was included in the fare. 10/10 drivers.

I convinced my friend to play Pai Gow Poker with me, he had never played the game before. We sat down at a $15 minimum table, which was surprisingly low for Parx. We both bought in for $100. I told the pit boss that my buddy had never played and asked if I could help set his hand. He said no problem as long as I didn’t touch his cards. The pit boss stuck around and chatted with us quite a bit. He was super nice and helped my friend learn the game the ENTIRE time we were there. I don’t think he ever left us for more than 5 mins. 10/10 customer service. The dealers were super friendly as well. We played for about 2 hrs at which point I went bust. My friend did a bit better and came out about $75 ahead.

Parx was pretty crowded for the early morning hours we were there. Mostly Asian players. There was about 6 Pai Gow Tile tables open, and they were all full.

Took and Uber back around 5AM and I am beat. Time for a nap.
FleaStiff
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July 15th, 2018 at 12:07:56 PM permalink
Thanks. This was far more than 'miscellaneous' to us.
Sure the uber info is nice to have and crowds and table limits can change, but its nice to have an idea of what is like during your visit.

The main thing is the your "10/10 customer service" comment for that informs us of something quite likely to persist and quite likely to apply to other pits and other games as well.

I imagine your friend enjoyed the trip a bit more than you did, but we've enjoyed your mini trip report.

A quick casino trip in the wee hours of the morning must be fun.
gamerfreak
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July 15th, 2018 at 6:10:34 PM permalink
Quote: FleaStiff

Thanks. This was far more than 'miscellaneous' to us.
Sure the uber info is nice to have and crowds and table limits can change, but its nice to have an idea of what is like during your visit.

The main thing is the your "10/10 customer service" comment for that informs us of something quite likely to persist and quite likely to apply to other pits and other games as well.

I imagine your friend enjoyed the trip a bit more than you did, but we've enjoyed your mini trip report.

A quick casino trip in the wee hours of the morning must be fun.


I’m glad you enjoyed the report! I didn’t quite think it was enough to deserve it’s own thread.

I hadn’t been to Parx for probably a year or more. I was never a fan of the $25 table minimums, stingy VP, and super tight slots. But what has always been unique about the place is the huge amount of Pai Gow Tile players. I doubt there are many other casino’s in the country with so many tables of it. When you walk through the tiles section of the floor, the normal sounds of slots dinging is replaced by a loud echo of tiles clicking, it’s sort of entrancing.

I had a good time even though lady variance wasn’t on my side, but my friend definitely had a blast learning a new game and ending up a winner. The pit boss that went above and beyond to teach him how to play really made the trip. All of the staff, even security, were surprisingly pleasant considering it was the graveyard shift. I hope Parx is really encouraging that culture of customer service, because you certainly don’t find it everywhere.
TigerWu
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July 15th, 2018 at 6:34:07 PM permalink
Quote: gamerfreak

But what has always been unique about the place is the huge amount of Pai Gow Tile players. I doubt there are many other casino’s in the country with so many tables of it. When you walk through the tiles section of the floor, the normal sounds of slots dinging is replaced by a loud echo of tiles clicking, it’s sort of entrancing.



I'm so jealous of all you north-easterners who are so close to all these casinos with MULTIPLE Tile tables, let alone one... haha...

I read that Foxwoods and Mohegan Sun each have like 10-12 tiles tables, but I don't know if that's still true and I've never been to either one.
gordonm888
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July 15th, 2018 at 10:07:59 PM permalink
There is a mantra in top level poker: never fold a pair of Ks pre-flop. Particularly when you are on TV, you don't want to do something that goes against conventional poker wisdom and have it backfire on you - you will be forever known as the donkey who mucked his KK pair pre-flop. That's one reason why Labat didn't fold the 2nd pair of kings in that crazy hand - and it cost him about $200,000.

There was only one all-in ahead of Labat when he went all in with the 2nd pair of Ks. If the AA pair had already gone all-in as well, I think it was a definite fold. But given that there was only one previous all-in, I don't know. The final table bubble and the money involved if one more person gets eliminated in that hand, I think it was a close decision.
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
FleaStiff
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July 16th, 2018 at 5:20:00 AM permalink
Quote: gordonm888

That's why Labat didn't fold the 2nd pair of kings in that crazy hand - and it cost him about $200,000.

I'd rather be known far and wide as a donkey than lose two hundred grand.
prozema
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July 16th, 2018 at 5:31:12 AM permalink
I'm no poker pro, but I'd like to think pocket kings behind two all ins that late in a tournament would be a tough decision.
PokerGrinder
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July 16th, 2018 at 9:38:38 AM permalink
Quote: gordonm888

There is a mantra in top level poker: never fold a pair of Ks pre-flop. Particularly when you are on TV, you don't want to do something that goes against conventional poker wisdom and have it backfire on you - you will be forever known as the donkey who mucked his KK pair pre-flop. That's one reason why Labat didn't fold the 2nd pair of kings in that crazy hand - and it cost him about $200,000.

There was only one all-in ahead of Labat when he went all in with the 2nd pair of Ks. If the AA pair had already gone all-in as well, I think it was a definite fold. But given that there was only one previous all-in, I don't know. The final table bubble and the money involved if one more person gets eliminated in that hand, I think it was a close decision.


First off there were two all ins before it came back to Labat. Labat was second in chips when the hand started. I think the call is incorrect for a couple of reasons. First one is ICM, “The ICM poker term stands for the Independent Chip Model. In poker ICM allows you to convert tournament players stacks in chips into their money equity (as percentage of total or remaining prize pool)”. If the player with AA (sorry I don’t remember names) eliminates the shorter stack, they go to the final table with Labat sitting 3rd in chips. Not saying he is guaranteed anything but 3rd was $3.75M. Basically what I am saying is his chips were worth more to him the later he went into the tourney.

Now you might say but he had KK, you can’t play scared and just fold massive hands to try and ladder up the prize money chart. Look at the action, there is a raise, Labat 3bets (puts in the 3rd bet), the short stack 4bets all in and the original raiser 5bets all in knowing that he has a player covering him behind (player behind has more chips). Labat has to know that the second all in is completely nutted. Nutted meaning his range of possible hands is as small as possible. In my opinion the only hands that he is overshoving here with are the 6 combinations of AA, the one remaining combo of KK and possibly the 6 combos of QQ but I think a lot of players would find a fold with QQ instead of overshoving when facing a 4bet and a 5bet all in. So basically he has to call off 80% of his chips knowing that the 2nd all in has AA in this spot a lot more often than he doesn’t. Basically his KK are crushed by the 2nd all ins range. It’s a fold for poker reasons and ICM reasons.

I hope this isn’t too much poker mumbo jumbo.
You can shear a sheep a hundred times, but you can skin it only once. — Amarillo Slim Preston
beachbumbabs
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July 16th, 2018 at 11:25:20 AM permalink
Quote: PokerGrinder

First off there were two all ins before it came back to Labat. Labat was second in chips when the hand started. I think the call is incorrect for a couple of reasons. First one is ICM, “The ICM poker term stands for the Independent Chip Model. In poker ICM allows you to convert tournament players stacks in chips into their money equity (as percentage of total or remaining prize pool)”. If the player with AA (sorry I don’t remember names) eliminates the shorter stack, they go to the final table with Labat sitting 3rd in chips. Not saying he is guaranteed anything but 3rd was $3.75M. Basically what I am saying is his chips were worth more to him the later he went into the tourney.

Now you might say but he had KK, you can’t play scared and just fold massive hands to try and ladder up the prize money chart. Look at the action, there is a raise, Labat 3bets (puts in the 3rd bet), the short stack 4bets all in and the original raiser 5bets all in knowing that he has a player covering him behind (player behind has more chips). Labat has to know that the second all in is completely nutted. Nutted meaning his range of possible hands is as small as possible. In my opinion the only hands that he is overshoving here with are the 6 combinations of AA, the one remaining combo of KK and possibly the 6 combos of QQ but I think a lot of players would find a fold with QQ instead of overshoving when facing a 4bet and a 5bet all in. So basically he has to call off 80% of his chips knowing that the 2nd all in has AA in this spot a lot more often than he doesn’t. Basically his KK are crushed by the 2nd all ins range. It’s a fold for poker reasons and ICM reasons.

I hope this isn’t too much poker mumbo jumbo.



Nope. Makes perfect sense in isolation. I don't think any additional considerations he made would outweigh it. But haven't heard what he's said about it.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
DRich
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July 16th, 2018 at 12:41:19 PM permalink
Quote: PokerGrinder


I hope this isn’t too much poker mumbo jumbo.



I agree, your mumbo jumbo is right on.
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Keeneone
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July 16th, 2018 at 5:15:37 PM permalink
Quote: PokerGrinder

-snip-
Now you might say but he had KK, you can’t play scared and just fold massive hands to try and ladder up the prize money chart. Look at the action, there is a raise, Labat 3bets (puts in the 3rd bet), the short stack 4bets all in and the original raiser 5bets all in knowing that he has a player covering him behind (player behind has more chips). Labat has to know that the second all in is completely nutted. Nutted meaning his range of possible hands is as small as possible. In my opinion the only hands that he is overshoving here with are the 6 combinations of AA, the one remaining combo of KK and possibly the 6 combos of QQ but I think a lot of players would find a fold with QQ instead of overshoving when facing a 4bet and a 5bet all in. So basically he has to call off 80% of his chips knowing that the 2nd all in has AA in this spot a lot more often than he doesn’t. Basically his KK are crushed by the 2nd all ins range. It’s a fold for poker reasons and ICM reasons.

I hope this isn’t too much poker mumbo jumbo.


From my amatuer perspective, it looks like Labat cold calls the initial raise.
I do not think this changes your breakdown of the whole situation (ie fold was the play). If anything it made it "easier" for him fold with only 1.5 million commited to the pot at the time. Thanks for the analysis.
PokerGrinder
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July 16th, 2018 at 5:29:43 PM permalink
Quote: Keeneone

Quote: PokerGrinder

-snip-
Now you might say but he had KK, you can’t play scared and just fold massive hands to try and ladder up the prize money chart. Look at the action, there is a raise, Labat 3bets (puts in the 3rd bet), the short stack 4bets all in and the original raiser 5bets all in knowing that he has a player covering him behind (player behind has more chips). Labat has to know that the second all in is completely nutted. Nutted meaning his range of possible hands is as small as possible. In my opinion the only hands that he is overshoving here with are the 6 combinations of AA, the one remaining combo of KK and possibly the 6 combos of QQ but I think a lot of players would find a fold with QQ instead of overshoving when facing a 4bet and a 5bet all in. So basically he has to call off 80% of his chips knowing that the 2nd all in has AA in this spot a lot more often than he doesn’t. Basically his KK are crushed by the 2nd all ins range. It’s a fold for poker reasons and ICM reasons.

I hope this isn’t too much poker mumbo jumbo.


From my amatuer perspective, it looks like Labat cold calls the initial raise.
I do not think this changes your breakdown of the whole situation (ie fold was the play). If anything it made it "easier" for him fold with only 1.5 million commited to the pot at the time. Thanks for the analysis.


Yikes I completely messed that all up. Actually it does change my analysis lol. Manion is actually shoving over top of the short stack all in lighter than I initially thought given how I messed up the action in the hand. Labat has disguised his hand very well and because of that in Manion’s spot he is shoving AA, KK, QQ and all combos of AK. Versus this range Labat is ahead and the correct move is to call especially with all the dead money in the middle. I don’t know how I missed that so badly. My bad, I will wear the dunce cap.
You can shear a sheep a hundred times, but you can skin it only once. — Amarillo Slim Preston
Keeneone
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July 16th, 2018 at 5:42:50 PM permalink
Quote: PokerGrinder

Quote: Keeneone

Quote: PokerGrinder

-snip-
Now you might say but he had KK, you can’t play scared and just fold massive hands to try and ladder up the prize money chart. Look at the action, there is a raise, Labat 3bets (puts in the 3rd bet), the short stack 4bets all in and the original raiser 5bets all in knowing that he has a player covering him behind (player behind has more chips). Labat has to know that the second all in is completely nutted. Nutted meaning his range of possible hands is as small as possible. In my opinion the only hands that he is overshoving here with are the 6 combinations of AA, the one remaining combo of KK and possibly the 6 combos of QQ but I think a lot of players would find a fold with QQ instead of overshoving when facing a 4bet and a 5bet all in. So basically he has to call off 80% of his chips knowing that the 2nd all in has AA in this spot a lot more often than he doesn’t. Basically his KK are crushed by the 2nd all ins range. It’s a fold for poker reasons and ICM reasons.

I hope this isn’t too much poker mumbo jumbo.


From my amatuer perspective, it looks like Labat cold calls the initial raise.
I do not think this changes your breakdown of the whole situation (ie fold was the play). If anything it made it "easier" for him fold with only 1.5 million commited to the pot at the time. Thanks for the analysis.


Yikes I completely messed that all up. Actually it does change my analysis lol. Manion is actually shoving over top of the short stack all in lighter than I initially thought given how I messed up the action in the hand. Labat has disguised his hand very well and because of that in Manion’s spot he is shoving AA, KK, QQ and all combos of AK. Versus this range Labat is ahead and the correct move is to call especially with all the dead money in the middle. I don’t know how I missed that so badly. My bad, I will wear the dunce cap.

No need for the dunce cap, you are the expert on this stuff.
PokerGrinder
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July 16th, 2018 at 5:59:25 PM permalink
Apparently I’m not the expert on paying attention to a video early in the morning lol.
You can shear a sheep a hundred times, but you can skin it only once. — Amarillo Slim Preston
TigerWu
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July 24th, 2018 at 1:28:37 PM permalink
Can somebody walk me through how casino credit lines work....

I'm thinking of doing this on my next Vegas trip, and applying online ahead of time.

Do I need to do it for the specific casino, or do I just apply with, say, MGM casinos in general and my credit line will work for any of their properties?

Is the credit line DIRECTLY linked to my bank account, i.e., I need to have exactly enough cash in my account to cover my credit line at any given second? Or will they give me a day or two to move money around if need be?

How much credit should I ask for? Exactly what I want, or more, to give them room to come down? How much more? Assume I have no substantial play time with a given casino, but pretty good credit (high 700's).

Is this a hard or soft credit check (I think that's the terminology)?

I don't know... what else should I know? Beforehand, at the tables, etc.
MaxPen
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July 24th, 2018 at 1:37:18 PM permalink
Quote: TigerWu

Can somebody walk me through how casino credit lines work....

I'm thinking of doing this on my next Vegas trip, and applying online ahead of time.

Do I need to do it for the specific casino, or do I just apply with, say, MGM casinos in general and my credit line will work for any of their properties?

Is the credit line DIRECTLY linked to my bank account, i.e., I need to have exactly enough cash in my account to cover my credit line at any given second? Or will they give me a day or two to move money around if need be?

How much credit should I ask for? Exactly what I want, or more, to give them room to come down? How much more? Assume I have no substantial play time with a given casino, but pretty good credit (high 700's).

Is this a hard or soft credit check (I think that's the terminology)?

I don't know... what else should I know? Beforehand, at the tables, etc.




Casino credit is basically writing a postdated check. It is based on your ability to pay proven by the maintained balances in your liquid accounts. i.e. checking account
TigerWu
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July 24th, 2018 at 2:10:23 PM permalink
Quote: MaxPen

Casino credit is basically writing a postdated check. It is based on your ability to pay proven by the maintained balances in your liquid accounts. i.e. checking account



Hmm... maybe casino credit is not for me, then. I rarely keep more than $100 in my checking account.
billryan
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July 24th, 2018 at 2:53:18 PM permalink
Quote: TigerWu

Hmm... maybe casino credit is not for me, then. I rarely keep more than $100 in my checking account.



That could be problematic. Do you have other accounts you can link to the account?

As an example, my Wells Fargo checking is linked to another account. I rarely keep more than a few thousand in my checking account, but they are linked so I can write a check for the total amount in both.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
TigerWu
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July 24th, 2018 at 3:07:00 PM permalink
Quote: billryan

That could be problematic. Do you have other accounts you can link to the account?



Yes. I have a savings account that I can transfer money from with the click of a mouse.

If I were to set up a casino credit line, would I just give them my savings account info?

I hope these questions aren't too stupid...haha...
FleaStiff
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July 24th, 2018 at 3:35:25 PM permalink
Quote: TigerWu

I hope these questions aren't too stupid...haha...

Better to look stupid here than in the casino where their opinions once in their computers can be indelible.

Have you considered a Front Money Account?
You transfer the funds to them, usually be wire, or you just leave some massive winnings there and you draw against that sum by signing a form at the table or cashier's window, but they are giving you your own money and you are extending credit to the casino.

Its the simplest and least paperwork, least intrusive way. All they make you do is sign a simple statement that they are hypothecating and rehypothecating the chips and not keeping them in some humidor with your name on it, its merely an accounting entry on their books. This avoids a credit check and a more detailed examination of your affairs.
RS
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July 24th, 2018 at 4:03:45 PM permalink
As far as I know or have been led to believe....

Lines of credit (LOC) are for a specific property. If you play at MGM Grand, Bellagio, and NYNY, you'd need a LOC for each. The same applies to front money. I don't have any experience with LOC, but a bit more with FM. Front money, if you don't know, is basically you just giving the casino money for them to hodl until you get there. You take it out the same (similarly*) way you would to taking out a marker on a LOC.

IMO, call a host and ask. Unless there's a reason you'd prefer credit over front money, probably try to do FM. You may even get some perks from a host, although that depends on the amount (duh).
odiousgambit
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July 24th, 2018 at 5:31:57 PM permalink
Quote: TigerWu

Can somebody walk me through how casino credit lines work....

It's definitely not like other types of credit. They don't look at your credit bureau credit record at all, or if they do, it is in some manner that does not leave a record [I think that means they don't]

They call your bank. If you have other accounts there, I have to think the bank will know generally how much money you keep there, without it having to be just in that one checking account. Other things that count are if you never bounce checks and how long you have had an account there.

They also have a little network joining with other casinos to see if you have had other casino credit and, so , like Santa, know if you have naughty or nice with those.

Unless you look pretty lame it seems easy to get about a $2500 line, if you want $10,000, you probably need to show you keep a lot of money in the bank and are clean otherwise.

All this is "my experience" and ymmv.
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billryan
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July 24th, 2018 at 9:33:25 PM permalink
On a similar vein, what happens to front money when you leave? Does it go with you, or back to your bank?
It seems the advantage is not having to travel with cash, so giving it to you to take home seems silly.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
FleaStiff
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July 25th, 2018 at 7:20:04 AM permalink
Quote: billryan

what happens to front money when you leave? Does it go with you?

Only if you want it to. Front Money is usually simply a deposit that you make and leave there at the casino. Its simple, quick and has minimal intrusiveness or paperwork involved. They don't really care much what your credit rating is since they already have your money. They sure don't care whether the IRS knows about it.

Front Money has certain advantages but perhaps you would not be valuing a less intrusive simplicity?

Its all up to you.
TigerWu
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July 25th, 2018 at 8:09:00 AM permalink
Okay, here's another stupid question....

If I want to deposit some Front Money, does it have to be cash? Do they ever take personal checks or cashier's checks or money orders?
DRich
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July 25th, 2018 at 8:18:20 AM permalink
Quote: TigerWu

Okay, here's another stupid question....

If I want to deposit some Front Money, does it have to be cash? Do they ever take personal checks or cashier's checks or money orders?



They would probably take a cashiers check but it is much easier to have your bank transfer the money to their account. When leaving, the casino will wire it back to your bank if that is what you want.
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MaxPen
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July 25th, 2018 at 8:39:34 AM permalink
Quote: TigerWu

Okay, here's another stupid question....

If I want to deposit some Front Money, does it have to be cash? Do they ever take personal checks or cashier's checks or money orders?



You can write personal checks once you're account has been verified by whatever service the casino uses for such matters. Ditronics is a major service used. Ditronics or whoever sets the level of guarantee to the casino and your limit is based on this amount. Can take anywhere from 10 minutes to 10 days to get this setup.
beachbumbabs
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July 26th, 2018 at 3:34:33 PM permalink
https://www.tahoedailytribune.com/news/harrahs-and-harveys-lake-tahoe-establishing-year-round-paid-parking/

Grrr. It's spreading. ..
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
FleaStiff
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Mission146
July 26th, 2018 at 4:42:25 PM permalink
I can understand casinos trying to derive revenue from some items but paid parking is about as annoying as having to pay for elevator use to get to your room. Is there anything casinos won't do to annoy their customers? Of course as casinos shift to more and more non-gambling activities keeping gamblers happy becomes less important because half those cars may be there for the Tractor Pull or Rodeo or Blues Festival or some other 'attraction' unrelated to gambling.

Upthread there were comments about Front Money. As I understand it casinos prefer wire transfers and will happily give you all the digits needed to help you and your bank do it successfully, but even a personal check is acceptable if you give them eons to make sure it clears before you try to draw against it. Eons ago The Venetian actually telephoned my bank even though I gave them a cashier's check, not a personal check. Casinos will be more happy to give you chips for a check than cash for it so don't ask to 'cash a check'.

Its simply a very easy way to leave money on deposit at the casino and on future visits you draw against it. When it gets to what the casino calls 'low' they will let you know, particularly if you are in town and drawing against it. They follow your instructions quite carefully since it is you lending them money.
TigerWu
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July 26th, 2018 at 6:35:35 PM permalink
Disney World just started doing paid parking (earlier this year) if you're staying at their hotels, so it's not something that only casinos are doing.
TigerWu
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July 27th, 2018 at 10:19:04 AM permalink
Is there some advantage to "playing where you stay" other than hotel charges?

I.e., if I have a room at casino X that for all intents and purposes is already paid for, is there some reason I should focus my play at that casino, or can I go to casino Y without fear of losing out on any specific comps for that specific trip only?

I know it probably looks better in their "system" if I localize my stay-and-play as much as possible, but I'm just wondering about the short term...
DrawingDead
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July 28th, 2018 at 12:36:06 AM permalink
By some peculiar oversight there's not a WoV topic explicitly labelled "degeneracy-magnet tweaker-betting" so I guess this thread might be about right, since this kind of prop wager gimmick is getting into pretty "miscellaneous" gambling territory. Welcome to fabulous New Jersey, sports fans:

Monmouth Park to Offer Racing/Baseball Mixed Wagers, Props on Haskell Day

Quote: TDN

Monmouth Park announced Friday that it will offer a “Grand Slam” crossover wager on three races on Sunday’s GI Haskell Invitational card–the GIII Molly Pitcher S., Wolf Hill S. and Haskell itself–and the Chicago Cubs/St. Louis Cardinals Sunday night MLB game...

...<SNIP>...

...The payout will be calculated by multiplying the $1 win price of the three race winners by the money line of the baseball winner...

The peculiar thing to me is that it isn't parimutual wagering, being house banked and not part of those race wagering pools, and having a significant fixed odds component. But also isn't exactly fixed odds sportsbook wagering, since the potential payout of a ticket is in large part dependent on the closing prices in several entirely separate individual race wagering pools, and is therefore not definitively knowable at the time the bet is booked.

Without having given it any thought beyond a quick first look, I'm not quite sure about the right method for constructing a quick-n-easy & readily repeatable approach to correctly calculating or closely estimating WmHill's vig/hold on this, and any other similar future mixed fish+fowl props. Monmouth Park currently has one of the highest (worst for bettors) straight wager Win/Place/Show takeout rates on the continent, at 17% plus breakage (rounding). While on the fixed odds sports portion WmHill has their usual competitively priced lines providing decent value for wagering on a "side" in baseball, with today's CHC@STL Saturday game for example (not the Sunday game not yet "on the board" that will be part of this) currently priced at +102/-112.
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FleaStiff
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July 28th, 2018 at 2:45:28 AM permalink
Quote: TigerWu

Is there some advantage to "playing where you stay" other than hotel charges?

It depends mainly on the host. If you are seen to be spreading the wealth they MAY look less favorably upon you, but they also realize that a lot of people do wander and some have social commitments and events to attend.

if this is your first visit to a certain hotel accumulating time on the casino floor there should help you at checkout but you really can't hold anyone responsible other than by complaining, which many people do.

I try to play where I stay but at my level I need all the good karma I can get from a host.
TigerWu
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unJon
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July 28th, 2018 at 11:13:19 AM permalink
Quote: PokerGrinder

Quote: Keeneone

Quote: PokerGrinder

-snip-
Now you might say but he had KK, you can’t play scared and just fold massive hands to try and ladder up the prize money chart. Look at the action, there is a raise, Labat 3bets (puts in the 3rd bet), the short stack 4bets all in and the original raiser 5bets all in knowing that he has a player covering him behind (player behind has more chips). Labat has to know that the second all in is completely nutted. Nutted meaning his range of possible hands is as small as possible. In my opinion the only hands that he is overshoving here with are the 6 combinations of AA, the one remaining combo of KK and possibly the 6 combos of QQ but I think a lot of players would find a fold with QQ instead of overshoving when facing a 4bet and a 5bet all in. So basically he has to call off 80% of his chips knowing that the 2nd all in has AA in this spot a lot more often than he doesn’t. Basically his KK are crushed by the 2nd all ins range. It’s a fold for poker reasons and ICM reasons.

I hope this isn’t too much poker mumbo jumbo.


From my amatuer perspective, it looks like Labat cold calls the initial raise.
I do not think this changes your breakdown of the whole situation (ie fold was the play). If anything it made it "easier" for him fold with only 1.5 million commited to the pot at the time. Thanks for the analysis.


Yikes I completely messed that all up. Actually it does change my analysis lol. Manion is actually shoving over top of the short stack all in lighter than I initially thought given how I messed up the action in the hand. Labat has disguised his hand very well and because of that in Manion’s spot he is shoving AA, KK, QQ and all combos of AK. Versus this range Labat is ahead and the correct move is to call especially with all the dead money in the middle. I don’t know how I missed that so badly. My bad, I will wear the dunce cap.

Manion folded KK pre in a similar spot the day before (it was an incredible and correct fold), which everyone at the table knew. With that added information I think Labat could have tightened his range for Manion and could have seen his way to a fold.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
Hullabaloo
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July 28th, 2018 at 3:43:07 PM permalink
Quote: TigerWu

Abandoned warehouse full of slot machines...



That looks like a parts graveyard. Broken/old/hard-to-fix machines are end up there and then parted out as needed.
DrawingDead
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July 29th, 2018 at 10:55:56 AM permalink
Quote: DrawingDead

...<SNIP>...

.Monmouth Park to Offer Racing/Baseball Mixed Wagers, Props on Haskell Day...

I took moment to answer my own question about the house hold of this wager - for absolutely no good practical reason whatsoever, since the only way I'll ever be in New Jersey is if I get spectacularly lost and confused in an airport headed somewhere in the opposite direction. But if any of the multitudes of awesomely fabulous salt-of-the-Earth folks populating that magnificently beautiful Garden State which I hope to never defile with my presence do go out and buy some tickets on this gimmick prop, I hope they get a whole big heaping landfill full of entertainment value out of it and enough drink tickets to float the remains of Jimmy Hoffa.

Because of the effect of compounding from their peculiar plan to multiply a series of net payout rates from four separately raked events to cook up this wager's eventual mystery return, the real effective vigorish on this will be at least 42%. And possibly somewhat higher if a series of chalky favorites happens to come in, with the variable effect of some things like track pool "breakage" calculations. And buying into the Nathan Investment Fund starts looking rather clever.
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Nathan
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July 29th, 2018 at 5:25:10 PM permalink
I personally think paying to park at a Casino is a horrible idea. You have to pay for a chance to lose your money. Let that sink in for a moment.
In both The Hunger Games and in gambling, may the odds be ever in your favor. :D "Man Babes" #AxelFabulous "Olive oil is processed but it only has one ingredient, olive oil."-Even Bob, March 27/28th. :D The 2 year war is over! Woo-hoo! :D I sometimes speak in metaphors. ;) Remember this. ;) Crack the code. :D 8.9.13.25.14.1.13.5.9.19.14.1.20.8.1.14! :D "For about the 4096th time, let me offer a radical idea to those of you who don't like Nathan -- block her and don't visit Nathan's Corner. What is so complicated about it?" Wizard, August 21st. :D
AxelWolf
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July 29th, 2018 at 7:59:17 PM permalink
Quote: Nathan

I personally think paying to park at a Casino is a horrible idea. You have to pay for a chance to lose your money. Let that sink in for a moment.

Kinda like playing the lottery, but that's even worst. Let that sink in for a longer moment.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
RS
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July 30th, 2018 at 5:40:30 AM permalink
Money stays in the front money account until you request it for a withdrawl. They can give you cash, chips, or wire it to your bank, or probably a check. It's very good for not having to travel with cash. You can either leave it at the casino or withdraw it. One benefit (perhaps) is you're playing on your own money, so if you do have a wild weekend, you're only going to lose your own money -- you can't run up an unpayable marker from a line of credit (borrowed money).
TigerWu
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July 30th, 2018 at 8:19:18 AM permalink
Quote: Nathan

I personally think paying to park at a Casino is a horrible idea. You have to pay for a chance to lose your money. Let that sink in for a moment.



You can only lose a finite amount of your money, but you can WIN exponentially more from the casino.

From the casino's point of view, you're paying a few measly dollars for a shot at their millions.... ;-)
FleaStiff
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July 30th, 2018 at 12:09:23 PM permalink
Quote: TigerWu

From the casino's point of view, you're paying a few measly dollars for a shot at their millions.... ;-)

Yes, though its still annoying just as having an overly lengthy walk from the parking lot is annoying as is having to take 'public transportation' because there are too few parking spaces at any price. And some days, not winning that lottery is annoying too.
LoneStarLyla
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July 30th, 2018 at 12:22:56 PM permalink
The casino closest to me has free parking. Yay! But they charge for drinks. Boo. :(

When we stayed at Harrah's we paid $30 a nite. And we got drinks!

Didn't like paying to park but it is safe. Just walk through the tunnel to the casino.

Easy peasy lemon squeezy. Lol.
Rigondeaux
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July 30th, 2018 at 2:46:02 PM permalink
For rec gambling, lotto is the best bet.

Small investment buys you days if hopes and dreams. And you have your drama. Some thing to talk about. An avenue for your lucky numbers and other superstitions.

You squander drastically less of your short time.

If you should happen to win, it is life changing money.
DRich
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July 30th, 2018 at 3:05:31 PM permalink
Quote: Rigondeaux

For rec gambling, lotto is the best bet.

Small investment buys you days if hopes and dreams. And you have your drama. Some thing to talk about. An avenue for your lucky numbers and other superstitions.

You squander drastically less of your short time.

If you should happen to win, it is life changing money.



I agree completely. As a person that doesn't make a lot of negative EV bets, I will still buy a lottery ticket for $2 when the jackpot is big. The entertainment value is worth it to me and when the jackpot is growing at least it is approaching a positive EV.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
Rigondeaux
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July 30th, 2018 at 4:24:19 PM permalink
This made me think of another question.

How hard is it for a rec in other forms of gambling to be a lifetime winner?

Let's suppose instead of playing lotto once a week, you go to a casino once a week and play 4 hours of A) table games. B) Vp. C) normal slots. D) slots with a large progressive. Say, over 250k.

You do this for 25 years.

Chances to a) win overall. B) be up big. Whatever that is. 10k units?
djatc
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July 30th, 2018 at 7:14:59 PM permalink
Quote: Rigondeaux

This made me think of another question.

How hard is it for a rec in other forms of gambling to be a lifetime winner?

Let's suppose instead of playing lotto once a week, you go to a casino once a week and play 4 hours of A) table games. B) Vp. C) normal slots. D) slots with a large progressive. Say, over 250k.

You do this for 25 years.

Chances to a) win overall. B) be up big. Whatever that is. 10k units?



50/50
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