Stock Picks

Quote: steeldco

Below are the results of a stock screen that I ran today

Quote: odiousgambit

omg, not frontier communications!

Quote: steeldco

Just checked and at least it is dead last in my ranked list..... :-)

Quote: odiousgambit

yes, where it belongs

my gut on it is influenced by owning it some time ago due to some advice to own it from some jerk ... didn't work out... looking at it's history it must have been 2011, that makes sense

unscientific feeling on it now - causes nausea - certainly nothing to do with prospects today

Quote: steeldco

I've taken the screen run of 12/27/15 and tried to narrow down the picks based upon how they have acted since and also whether I liked their businesses. I try to limit the amount of subjectivity applied since I seek to be consistent in methodology so that if I find something that works then I can be fairly confident that it will continue to work.

My picks to make the run to a 100% gainer are:

Symbols	Name	Screen Run Date	Gain as of 01/01/16
BVX	Bovie Medical Corporation	12/27/2015	7.14
OMCL	Omnicell, Inc.	12/27/2015	6.08
AFFX	Affymetrix, Inc.	12/27/2015	3.81
AMRI	Albany Molecular Research, Inc.	12/27/2015	0.97
CRY	Cryolife Inc	12/27/2015	0.65

Quote: 100xOdds

Quote: steeldco

I've taken the screen run of 12/27/15 and tried to narrow down the picks based upon how they have acted since and also whether I liked their businesses. I try to limit the amount of subjectivity applied since I seek to be consistent in methodology so that if I find something that works then I can be fairly confident that it will continue to work.

My picks to make the run to a 100% gainer are:

Symbols	Name	Screen Run Date	Gain as of 01/01/16
BVX	Bovie Medical Corporation	12/27/2015	7.14
OMCL	Omnicell, Inc.	12/27/2015	6.08
AFFX	Affymetrix, Inc.	12/27/2015	3.81
AMRI	Albany Molecular Research, Inc.	12/27/2015	0.97
CRY	Cryolife Inc	12/27/2015	0.65

affx shares jumped 50% afterhours today on buyout offer.

so you failed on that one to double up :)

Quote: steeldco

Quote: steeldco

Quote: steeldco

Using this metric, I took a look at the last screen run and chose the 5 best performers. Shown below. Which one of these will be the 100% gainer in the bunch??

Symbols	Screen Run Date	Gain as of 11/28/15
CDNA	11/4/2015	44.50%
MTSN	11/4/2015	29.79%
ORBK	11/4/2015	23.85%
RATE	11/4/2015	20.18%
P	11/4/2015	12.63%

I think my personal favorite of the 5 is MTSN. Despite lagging the leader, I believe it stands the best chance of hitting a 100% gain...........up 4% today.

I thought that I would take another look at this run to 100% gain.......below is the performance since the last update of 11/28. One of the 5, RATE, is down since then but the others are up, and they are up in excess of the S&P which has been a loser since 11/28. I dream of finding a way to further narrow down the stock screens that I run and maybe, just maybe, I have...............

Symbols	Screen Run Date	Gain as of 12/19/15	Gain since 11/28/15
CDNA	11/4/2015	47.48%	2.98%
MTSN	11/4/2015	48.94%	19.15%
ORBK	11/4/2015	30.58%	6.73%
RATE	11/4/2015	9.97%	-10.21%
P	11/4/2015	15.83%	3.20%
S&P 500 since 11/28/15			-4.04%

steeldco

steeldco

• Threads: 52
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Joined: Nov 30, 2011

January 22nd, 2016 at 8:46:26 AM permalink

EGHT is a current holding in the portfolio. They reported earnings yesterday that were quite good. Made it to a 52 week high today and pulled back. I suspect that the rise will resume in the not too distant future. I see fair value to be at over $14. Assuming it gets there, I will probably consider exiting (barring some other news event).

DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.

Boz

Boz

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• Posts: 5701

Joined: Sep 22, 2011

January 22nd, 2016 at 9:45:38 AM permalink

Quote: steeldco

EGHT is a current holding in the portfolio. They reported earnings yesterday that were quite good. Made it to a 52 week high today and pulled back. I suspect that the rise will resume in the not too distant future. I see fair value to be at over $14. Assuming it gets there, I will probably consider exiting (barring some other news event).

Again, Thanks for this one. I've been riding it with you from the start. Almost sorry to see you believe a peak may be coming.

Any general opinion on the larger market as a whole? I know it's tough to time the market but I haven't put my 2016 IRA contributions in yet as I usually do in January.

steeldco

steeldco

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• Posts: 4914

Joined: Nov 30, 2011

January 22nd, 2016 at 10:02:47 AM permalink

Hey Boz,
EGHT, I think, is going to approach what I believe to be fair value. That's not to say that it can't go higher, as a matter of fact many of my sells do. However, I have to tried to apply certain rules and be consistent about it. My tact has always been to buy, or sell, based upon my calculation of a fair value number (obviously can be very subjective since there are many different methodologies, although I consistently apply my own). The hope would be to exit and be given an opportunity to buy back in. Probably won't happen but that's the plan. And if it doesn't happen then are plenty of other picks to invest in.

Insofar as the general market is concerned, I am somewhat confused by the frequent blaming of lower oil prices for lower stock market prices. Other than the oils and oil related industries being hurt and the possibility of some financials being hurt (bankruptcies on the horizon) I do not share the lower oil price concern. However, I think that the general market will probably be driven a bit lower, but I think it will be media driven..... an illusion. As a matter of fact, I don't see oil rising much in price unless it is caused by general inflationary factors, or a large war in the Middle East. I have read where Iran's plan is to double their production in the next 5 years. Supply will continue to exceed demand even with some of the oil companies going out of business. This is becoming a different world..........in many ways.

DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.

steeldco

steeldco

• Threads: 52
• Posts: 4914

Joined: Nov 30, 2011

January 22nd, 2016 at 10:20:31 AM permalink

Quote: steeldco

I'm going to be buying EGHT at some point today. This is a company that I owned shares at a cost of $2.02 in 2006 and sold at $10.41 last year.
It has retreated to just over $7 and I will be getting back into it.

Boz,
I found this as an example of I hope to achieve, although it rarely happens. I had owned and previously sold EGHT for a fantastic profit. I was then given an opportunity to get back in (mind you this is all on a long term basis, with long term gains). Will there be a 3rd.? Not likely......but never say never........

DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.

ukaserex

ukaserex

• Threads: 21
• Posts: 262

Joined: Jul 12, 2015

January 22nd, 2016 at 10:23:01 AM permalink

I'm inclined to agree about the market's behavior being media driven.

You didn't ask - but my approach to identifying good stock picks has been to analyze the Earnings per share for the past 20 quarters. If it increases, that would suggest the company is being well managed. Additionally, I never buy a stock that doesn't give a dividend, unless it's within a mutual fund.

"Those who have no idea what they are doing, genuinely have no idea that they don't know what they are doing." - John Cleese

steeldco

steeldco

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Joined: Nov 30, 2011

January 22nd, 2016 at 10:26:13 AM permalink

Quote: ukaserex

I'm inclined to agree about the market's behavior being media driven.

You didn't ask - but my approach to identifying good stock picks has been to analyze the Earnings per share for the past 20 quarters. If it increases, that would suggest the company is being well managed. Additionally, I never buy a stock that doesn't give a dividend, unless it's within a mutual fund.

ukaserex, I get the earnings per share metric. I have to disagree regarding dividends. Bottom line is that if you have been successful then there is little reason to change. Good Luck!

DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.

steeldco

steeldco

• Threads: 52
• Posts: 4914

Joined: Nov 30, 2011

January 27th, 2016 at 11:45:53 AM permalink

Quote: steeldco

I find this very, very interesting. First, I think the Saudi's are also employing some fear tactics.....i.e., you're losing a bunch at $35 and we think that it's going to $25....how are you going to survive? I would think that they feel that the bleeding needs to be sustained for a bit and not just be temporary.

However, what is the point of this unless the Saudis can live with $35-$40 for a very extended period? After all, if the prices rise again, the production will come back on line. I'm not sure that I get it.

Quote: 100xOdds

production will not come back in full. sure, existing oil rigs will fire back up.
but investors of shale oil will be shy to put $ there again.

the US oil boom was because of shale oil (think north dakoda) but their breakeven point is around $80/barrel.
at sustained $35/barrel, most of them will go bankrupt.
when oil prices rise again, the Saudi's don't have to worry about shale and capture their market share.

hm.. fear tactics.
so when oil goes below $40/barrel, you think the Saudi's will come up with an excuse to cut?

Well, it's a just under a year later and rumor is that the Saudis and Russians may now be amenable to cuts.......

DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.

steeldco

steeldco

• Threads: 52
• Posts: 4914

Joined: Nov 30, 2011

January 29th, 2016 at 7:37:31 AM permalink

One of my holdings, ARAY, reported yesterday evening. Generally a good report. However, they paid off some convertible notes with a loan and it blew up one of my Balance Sheet metrics that I typically apply. This circumstance is rather odd since I would normally welcome a pay off of convertibles. However, I will stick to has worked and will look to exit ARAY in the near future.

DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.

steeldco

steeldco

• Threads: 52
• Posts: 4914

Joined: Nov 30, 2011

January 30th, 2016 at 7:51:43 AM permalink

Below are the results of this month's screen run. Several familiar names.
I'll review and take my guess at the 5 most likely to double in a few days.

Quote: ukaserex

I'm inclined to agree about the market's behavior being media driven.

You didn't ask - but my approach to identifying good stock picks has been to analyze the Earnings per share for the past 20 quarters. If it increases, that would suggest the company is being well managed. Additionally, I never buy a stock that doesn't give a dividend, unless it's within a mutual fund.

Quote: Chereya

I prefer stocks that have dividends as well. Just started my IRA a few years ago and intend to hold for the long term. The past week or two has been a great time to buy. I put in my 2015 and 2016 contributions. Wish I had more tax free money in I could play with. :)

Quote: Chereya

I like free money ;) Since I'm holding long term and auto reinvesting the dividends, I don't mind the price dipping. As long as the company itself is healthy and long term sustainable, and the dividends remain healthy, a lower price at the time of dividend reinvestment means that I get more shares for my free money. Current stock price is really only relevant if and when you are going to sell and what its relative price is from when you bought. I could conceivably hold onto mine forever and just switch dividend reinvestment to cash account deposit in 30-40 years. :)

Quote: Chereya

I could conceivably hold onto mine forever and just switch dividend reinvestment to cash account deposit in 30-40 years. :)

Quote: odiousgambit

If you mean living off just your dividends, without having to sell shares, that has to be the ultimate in 'saving enough money' ... I think most of us would need about $2-3 million or more in dividend producing stocks, with SS income supplementing that too.

It is an excellent time to buy now, especially for someone still building their portfolio. It's a tougher call for the retired, who I can assure you don't like buying during a 10% correction only to find a 20% correction was on the way.

But hey, no worries if it storms back up like it did in the latter half of 2009.

Quote: Chereya

No, that's not what I said nor what I meant but thanks for your snark anyway I guess... ??

Since IRA contributions are capped at $5500/$6500 annually (under 50/over50) there's a ceiling on what you can deposit (extrapolating current limits to future years). Max you could put in of base money is $273,500 if you started at 18 and stopped depositing at 65. Can a $2-3 million portfolio even be built up from $5500 investment each year? I've seen the projections that put $1m as the more attainable goal. My current IRA value is $24k with expected annual dividends for 2016 at $2600. I got a late start on the IRA :( and I'm also not expecting social security to still be around by the time I'm "old". But I'm not unhappy with the amount of dividends I'm expecting this year.

Quote: Joeman

I'd caution, however, to be very careful with stocks that pay dividends at that 10+% rate. It often can be a sign of a problem. Companies will hike up their dividend to make their stock attractive, but in reality, they are in trouble.

Quote: Chereya

No, that's not what I said nor what I meant but thanks for your snark anyway I guess... ??

Quote:

Since IRA contributions are capped at $5500/$6500 annually (under 50/over50) there's a ceiling on what you can deposit (extrapolating current limits to future years). Max you could put in of base money is $273,500 if you started at 18 and stopped depositing at 65. Can a $2-3 million portfolio even be built up from $5500 investment each year?

Quote: Joeman

Them's some sweet dividends! At one time, I was able to do very well with DRIP (Dividend ReInvestment Program) investing. It can be a tax headache when trying to calculate your basis, but since it's in your IRA, that won't be an issue.

I'd caution, however, to be very careful with stocks that pay dividends at that 10+% rate. It often can be a sign of a problem. Companies will hike up their dividend to make their stock attractive, but in reality, they are in trouble.

Quote: odiousgambit

Piling on with the snark, I would say I have to agree with this. Often, such an outfit gets into this condition by paying a normal dividend and then deciding to maintain it after going way down in value. Still, 10% is huge.

Quote: odiousgambit

what did you mean, then?

Quote: odiousgambit

Yes, check it out with this calculator. You'll have to use 10% or so as a yearly 'interest' rate. 8% appreciation plus 2% on dividends does that. Some say 10% can't be done anymore, but that used to be fairly standard assumption.

http://www.thecalculatorsite.com/finance/calculators/compoundinterestcalculator.php

I'd be willing to bet, as a young person, your focus on dividends will soon vanish and be replaced by one on capital appreciation. Congratulations for being an investor!

Quote: Chereya

What I meant, in a lighthearted no-reading-between-the-lines-necessary is that by the time I get Old old, I can withdraw and use the dividend money instead of reinvesting it.

Quote:

I don't consider myself a young person. I am solidly in the middle age demographic. I was not in the stock market when it took a huge nosedive in the 2000s but because of that I have a very healthy skepticism of the entire stock market machine. Your posts are full of contradictory commentary. First you imply that a person couldn't save enough to amass $2-3 million needed to live off dividends plus SS money, then you go on to "prove" that it can be done via calculator link. ?? I don't believe in consistent YOY returns that can be reliably counted upon to produce future income. But I will continue to invest my $5500 annually into my IRA and it will or won't perform according to hypothetical calculation. Life will go on. :)

Quote:

Did someone pee in your cheerios this morning? I am now going to back slowly away with my hands in the air....

Quote: odiousgambit

OK, good.



the difference between investing between ages 18-65 and what you will be able to do is enormous, almost hard to comprehend. My investing just reached 30 years because I was broke at one point, yet what 30 years can do is impressive. 40+ years makes for the truly miraculous. I won't see it in its true manifestation because I am withdrawing.

So they have this theory of what 18 year olds can do with just $2000 per yr and 40 years, becoming millionaires plus having SS. Yet this ability goes back to 1975 and I don't see the articles in newspapers and magazines about the droves of people who did that now that it is 2015. There may be a few, but I don't think it is a mystery if it isn't great numbers, as to why.



If stock market dips don't mess with a guy's cheerios ...

I too have been a buyer lately, but the chances that what I bought will go down further are excellent. I don't fear that, [i[per se, but I do fear going down and staying down, which would hurt me.

Quote: TwoFeathersATL

My advice to everyone that can hear me,,,,,, can you hear me now! Buy, buy now, buy big, go with all the leverage you can muster. I bought yesterday ;-)
<edit> I might be selling tomorrow.....

Quote: odiousgambit

OK, good.

the difference between investing between ages 18-65 and what you will be able to do is enormous, almost hard to comprehend. My investing just reached 30 years because I was broke at one point, yet what 30 years can do is impressive. 40+ years makes for the truly miraculous. I won't see it in its true manifestation because I am withdrawing.

So they have this theory of what 18 year olds can do with just $2000 per yr and 40 years, becoming millionaires plus having SS. Yet this ability goes back to 1975 and I don't see the articles in newspapers and magazines about the droves of people who did that now that it is 2015. There may be a few, but I don't think it is a mystery if it isn't great numbers, as to why.

If stock market dips don't mess with a guy's cheerios ...

I too have been a buyer lately, but the chances that what I bought will go down further are excellent. I don't fear that, [i[per se, but I do fear going down and staying down, which would hurt me.

Quote: steeldco

Apparently, one of my holdings, SVA, received a buyout offer at $6.18 per share this morning. It's terribly disappointing. They are on the cusp of doubling up revenues. The acquisition would be a steal. I hope that it is not approved.

Quote: Chereya

No, that's not what I said nor what I meant but thanks for your snark anyway I guess... ??

Since IRA contributions are capped at $5500/$6500 annually (under 50/over50) there's a ceiling on what you can deposit (extrapolating current limits to future years). Max you could put in of base money is $273,500 if you started at 18 and stopped depositing at 65. Can a $2-3 million portfolio even be built up from $5500 investment each year? I've seen the projections that put $1m as the more attainable goal. My current IRA value is $24k with expected annual dividends for 2016 at $2600. I got a late start on the IRA :( and I'm also not expecting social security to still be around by the time I'm "old". But I'm not unhappy with the amount of dividends I'm expecting this year.

Quote: ukaserex

Sorry, I'm catching up from the past week - I thought the only limitation on when you could start investing in an IRA was when you started producing income. Some kids (models, actors) begin to generate earnings at a very young age.

I realize that's just semantics, but I was curious to know if I misunderstood when they could be opened.

Quote: coachjm

Hey OG,

While the interaction of my investment funds only allow me to lock in allocations the day before, I did catch today's 1.65 s and p continuation from Friday (2.4 roughly for my company index). I won't be in long, as I am not confident the bounce can sustain over 1950. I hope everyone is still doing well! I'm scheduled to pull out at close tomorrow (if we open red I'll wait until striking distance of 1950 the day before making my exit). all the best!

Quote: steeldco

Having some time on my hands today, I thought that I'd take a look at how the monthly top 5 picks to reach a 100% gain are doing.

The first group of 5 was out of the stock screen of 11/04/15. They have done well with a good deal of it due to 1 of the companies being acquired. The group averaged a gain of 24.51% VS. the S&P loss of -11.65%

Symbols	Name	Screen Run Date	Gain as of 02/14/16
CDNA	Care Dx Inc	11/4/2015	16.97%
MTSN	Mattson Technology, Inc	11/4/2015	48.51%
ORBK	Orbotech Ltd	11/4/2015	24.16%
RATE	Bankrate Inc	11/4/2015	-1.55%
P	Pandora Media Inc	11/4/2015	34.45%
S&P 500 since 11/04/15			-11.65%

The 2nd. group of 5 was from the screen run of 12/27/15. Again the average was mainly due to 1 of the companies being acquired. This group averaged a paltry gain of .02%, however the S&P had a loss of -9.38%.

Symbols	Name	Screen Run Date	Gain as of 02/14/16
BVX	Bovie Medical Corporation	12/27/2015	1.53%
OMCL	Omnicell, Inc.	12/27/2015	-8.70%
AFFX	Affymetrix, Inc.	12/27/2015	44.96%
AMRI	Albany Molecular Research, Inc.	12/27/2015	-22.28%
CRY	Cryolife Inc	12/27/2015	-15.41%
S&P 500 since 12/27/15			-9.38%

The most recent group is from a screen run of 01/30/16. So far this is the worst performing group, but it has only been a couple of weeks. Plenty of time left for one of the companies to be acquired :-). The group has lost -4.45% on average. The S&P over the same time has lost -6.01%. So at least they did perform better.

Symbols	Name	Screen Run Date	Gain as of 02/14/16
NMBL	Nimble Storage Inc	1/30/2016	-10.81%
CGNT	Cogentix Medical Inc	1/30/2016	4.85%
SMCI	Super Micro Computer	1/30/2016	0.37%
CSII	Cardiovascular Systems	1/30/2016	-3.55%
FLDM	Fluidigm Corporation	1/30/2016	-13.11%
			-6.01%

This is all in my interest of narrowing down the monthly stock screen list. Not a bad performance. It will be interesting to see how these do in up markets.

Lastly, I see where Barron's, a week ago, predicted $20 a barrel oil. WOW!

Quote: steeldco

Here's the current month's screen run. A lot of familiar names. Will review for what I think are the top 5 to get to 100% gain.

Symbol	Name	Last Close
DSKY	IDREAMSKY ADR	13.47
SEDG	SOLAREDGE TECH	24.7
NMBL	NIMBLE STORAGE	7.54
NVEE	NV5 HOLDING INC	20.91
AAC	AAC HOLDINGS	21.74
SSYS	STRATASYS LTD	18.85
RNET	RIGNET INC	12.81
CGNT	COGENTIX MEDICL	1.16
LCI	LANNETT INC	25.25
ENT	GLOBAL EAGL ENT	8.97
AAOI	APPLIED OPTOELE	18.22
AMRI	ALBANY MOL RSCH	14.8
P	PANDORA MEDIA	10.17
CSII	CARDIOVASCLR SY	8.395
SMCI	SUPER MICRO COM	32.07
INFN	INFINERA CORP	15.6
EXAR	EXAR CORP	5.25
CRAY	CRAY INC	42.76
ENV	ENVESTNET INC	22.88
SAAS	INCONTACT INC	8.99
SNCR	SYNCHRONOSS TEC	27.69
GOGO	GOGO INC	10.59
CDNA	CAREDX INC	4.96
VRTU	VIRTUSA CORP	35.25
ELMD	ELECTROMED INC	4.23
PEIX	PAC ETHANOL INC	3.8
IZEA	IZEA INC	7.75
EVHC	ENVISION HLTHCR	22.57
XCRA	XCERRA CORP	5.8

Quote: steeldco

Maybe I'm on the right track here?