Stock Picks
October 8th, 2016 at 10:39:31 AM
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I could not find 5 to put in. I am putting in 4, including 1 (VRTU) which is going right back in after just coming out.
The 4 are:
That leaves the updated portfolio at:
The 4 are:
| Synmbol | Industry | Date Picked | # of Shares | Cost per Share |
| HLTH | MED-HMO | 10/8/2016 | 287 | 3.49 |
| FN | ELEC-MISC COMPONENTS | 10/8/2016 | 22 | 45.14 |
| VRTU | COMP-SERVICES | 10/8/2016 | 44 | 22.85 |
| LXFT | IT SERVICES | 10/8/2016 | 19 | 53.37 |
That leaves the updated portfolio at:
| Symbols | Name | Screen Run Date | # of Shares | Cost |
| ACLS | AXCELIS TECH | 4/23/2016 | 86 | $11.60 |
| BLOX | INFOBLOX INC | 4/23/2016 | 65 | $15.37 |
| CRAY | CRAY INC | 4/23/2016 | 25 | $39.18 |
| INFN | INFINERA CORP | 4/23/2016 | 68 | $14.66 |
| SIGM | SIGMA DESIGNS | 4/23/2016 | 150 | $6.63 |
| ALQA | ALLIQUA INC | 5/21/2016 | 775 | $1.29 |
| FIT | FITBIT INC | 5/21/2016 | 68 | $14.60 |
| AMRI | ALBANY MOL RSCH | 5/21/2016 | 72 | $13.72 |
| ELMD | ELECTROMED INC | 5/21/2016 | 243 | $4.10 |
| XCRA | XCERRA CORP | 5/21/2016 | 166 | $6.01 |
| SYNA | ELEC COMP-SEMIC | 6/25/2016 | 19 | $52.22 |
| IPXL | MED-GENERIC DRG | 6/25/2016 | 34 | $29.26 |
| NMBL | COMP-STORAGE DEV | 6/25/2016 | 125 | $7.99 |
| TEAR | MED INSTRUMENTS | 6/25/2016 | 1,515 | $0.66 |
| OOMA | COMMUNICATIONS COMPONENTS | 6/25/2016 | 124 | $8.05 |
| LCI | LANNETT INC | 7/23/2016 | 40 | $30.67 |
| NVEE | NV5 HOLDING INC | 7/23/2016 | 39 | $31.69 |
| ORBK | ORBOTECH LTD | 7/23/2016 | 45 | $27.36 |
| P | PANDORA MEDIA | 7/23/2016 | 101 | $12.28 |
| HLTH | NOBILIS HEALTH | 10/8/2016 | 287 | $3.49 |
| FN | FABRINET | 10/8/2016 | 22 | $45.14 |
| VRTU | VIRTUSA | 10/8/2016 | 44 | $22.85 |
| LXFT | LUXOFT HOLDING | 10/8/2016 | 19 | $53.37 |
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
October 18th, 2016 at 3:19:06 PM
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I see where one of the picks for a run to a 100% gainer as of today gained 138.27%. The pick was BVX, one of the December picks
sold off in May for a mere 21.61% gain.
I will be reviewing which others may have become 100% gainers after their sale. It may cause me to extend the holding term of these 100% gainer picks from the 5 months it currently stands at. Maybe I'll take it to 9 months?
sold off in May for a mere 21.61% gain.
I will be reviewing which others may have become 100% gainers after their sale. It may cause me to extend the holding term of these 100% gainer picks from the 5 months it currently stands at. Maybe I'll take it to 9 months?
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
October 19th, 2016 at 7:42:32 AM
permalink
A quick check shows that there were 50 picks made and 3 of them reached 100% gains. A 6% success rate.
Now if only I can find a way to cull the large losers...............
Now if only I can find a way to cull the large losers...............
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
November 6th, 2016 at 8:30:59 AM
permalink
I ran the stock screen today. List below. I'll see if I can find any actually worth wagering on.
| Symbol | Name | Last Close |
| ALQA | ALLIQUA INC | 0.62 |
| HZNP | HORIZON PHARMA | 15.05 |
| CY | CYPRESS SEMICON | 9.78 |
| QRVO | QORVO INC | 51.08 |
| TNDM | TANDEM DIABETES | 2.00 |
| IPXL | IMPAX LABORATRS | 17.75 |
| PMTS | CPI CARD GROUP | 4.85 |
| NVEE | NV5 HOLDING INC | 28.75 |
| LIVN | LIVANOVA PLC | 44.79 |
| NMBL | NIMBLE STORAGE | 7.16 |
| LCI | LANNETT INC | 18.05 |
| CRAY | CRAY INC | 19.85 |
| TEAR | TEARLAB CORP | 0.57 |
| P | PANDORA MEDIA | 10.67 |
| VRTU | VIRTUSA CORP | 19.11 |
| LXFT | LUXOFT HOLDING | 50.15 |
| CCRN | CROSS COUNTRY | 13.09 |
| BDSI | BIODELIVERY SCI | 1.95 |
| ST | SENSATA TECHNOL | 35.81 |
| OOMA | OOMA INC | 8.65 |
| GOGO | GOGO INC | 9.52 |
| SIGM | SIGMA DESIGNS | 7.35 |
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
November 6th, 2016 at 9:30:34 AM
permalink
The following 5 are being sold out of the portfolio:
| Symbols | Name | Screen Run Date | Cost Ea. | Gain | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ACLS | AXCELIS TECH | 4/23/2016 | $11.60 | -$4.30 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| BLOX | INFOBLOX INC | 4/23/2016 | $15.37 | $720.20 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| CRAY | CRAY INC | 4/23/2016 | $39.18 | -$483.25 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| INFN | INFINERA CORP | 4/23/2016 | $14.66 | -$499.12 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| SIGM | SIGMA DESIGNS | 4/23/2016 | $6.63 | $108.00 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Total of the 5 Picks | 4/23/2016 | -$158.47 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| S&P 500 since 04/23/16 | $2,091.58 | -$6.40 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
That leaves the results since opening this portfolio as below. Despite a lousy period, still nicely beating the S&P 500, 8.61% Vs. 3.37%.
| Screen Run Date | Exit Date | Picks Cost | Picks $ Gain (Loss) | Picks % Gain | Annualized Rate | S&P Cost | S&P $ Gain (Loss) | S&P % Gain | Picks Vs. S&P |
| 11/4/2015 | 4/22/2016 | $4,985.56 | $640.01 | 12.84% | 27.18% | $2,110.60 | -$19.02 | -0.90% | 13.74% |
| 12/27/2015 | 5/20/2016 | $4,966.27 | $84.28 | 1.70% | 4.21% | $2,057.77 | -$5.45 | -0.26% | 1.96% |
| 1/30/2016 | 6/24/2016 | $4,977.37 | $1,545.54 | 31.05% | 76.56% | $1,940.24 | $97.06 | 5.00% | 26.05% |
| 2/27/2016 | 7/22/2016 | $4,955.49 | $728.95 | 14.71% | 36.27% | $1,948.05 | $226.98 | 11.65% | 3.06% |
| 3/25/2016 | 10/7/2016 | $4,951.71 | -$288.30 | -5.82% | -10.69% | $2,035.94 | $117.80 | 5.79% | -11.61% |
| 4/23/2016 | 11/7/2016 | $4,809.06 | -$158.47 | -3.30% | -5.99% | $2,091.58 | -$6.40 | -0.31% | -2.99% |
| Total Closed | $29,645.46 | $2,552.01 | 8.61% | $12,184.18 | $410.97 | 3.37% | 5.24% | ||
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
November 6th, 2016 at 9:34:03 AM
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I'm adding 2 from today's stock screen to the portfolio. One is a new name and the other I just sold out, but I believe merits staying in so it's being bought back.
Note that the total number of issues in the portfolio is falling. In line with what I believe is a lousy market, looking to get worse.
The portfolio is now:
Note that the total number of issues in the portfolio is falling. In line with what I believe is a lousy market, looking to get worse.
The portfolio is now:
| Symbols | Name | Screen Run Date | # of Shares | Cost |
| ALQA | ALLIQUA INC | 5/21/2016 | 775 | $1.29 |
| FIT | FITBIT INC | 5/21/2016 | 68 | $14.60 |
| AMRI | ALBANY MOL RSCH | 5/21/2016 | 72 | $13.72 |
| ELMD | ELECTROMED INC | 5/21/2016 | 243 | $4.10 |
| XCRA | XCERRA CORP | 5/21/2016 | 166 | $6.01 |
| SYNA | ELEC COMP-SEMIC | 6/25/2016 | 19 | $52.22 |
| IPXL | MED-GENERIC DRG | 6/25/2016 | 34 | $29.26 |
| NMBL | COMP-STORAGE DEV | 6/25/2016 | 125 | $7.99 |
| TEAR | MED INSTRUMENTS | 6/25/2016 | 1,515 | $0.66 |
| OOMA | COMMUNICATIONS COMPONENTS | 6/25/2016 | 124 | $8.05 |
| LCI | LANNETT INC | 7/23/2016 | 40 | $30.67 |
| NVEE | NV5 HOLDING INC | 7/23/2016 | 39 | $31.69 |
| ORBK | ORBOTECH LTD | 7/23/2016 | 45 | $27.36 |
| P | PANDORA MEDIA | 7/23/2016 | 101 | $12.28 |
| HLTH | NOBILIS HEALTH | 10/8/2016 | 287 | $3.49 |
| FN | FABRINET | 10/8/2016 | 22 | $45.14 |
| VRTU | VIRTUSA | 10/8/2016 | 44 | $22.85 |
| LXFT | LUXOFT HOLDING | 10/8/2016 | 19 | $53.37 |
| QRVO | QORVO INC | 11/6/2016 | 20 | 51.08 |
| INFN | Infinera | 11/6/2016 | 137 | 7.32 |
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
January 13th, 2017 at 9:18:07 AM
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I'll be running a new stock screen and reconstituting the portfolio tomorrow despite the fact that I still believe we'll be in for a significant market drop in the next 4-5 months.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
January 14th, 2017 at 10:25:38 AM
permalink
Here are the 5 oldest sold out of the portfolio in order to make room for the additions from today's stock run.
This was not a good group with a couple of large losers. Particularly Fitbit and Alliqua with losses of around 50%.
This was not a good group with a couple of large losers. Particularly Fitbit and Alliqua with losses of around 50%.
| Symbols | Name | Screen Run Date | # of Shares | Cost | Selling Price | Gain | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ALQA | ALLIQUA INC | 5/21/2016 | 775 | $1.29 | $0.64 | -$504.53 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| FIT | FITBIT INC | 5/21/2016 | 68 | $14.60 | $7.44 | -$486.88 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| AMRI | ALBANY MOL RSCH | 5/21/2016 | 72 | $13.72 | $18.14 | $318.24 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ELMD | ELECTROMED INC | 5/21/2016 | 243 | $4.10 | $3.90 | -$48.60 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| XCRA | XCERRA CORP | 5/21/2016 | 166 | $6.01 | $7.90 | $313.74 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Total of the 5 Picks | $4,974.35 | $4,566.33 | -$408.03 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| S&P 500 since 05/21/16 | $2,052.32 | $2,274.64 | $222.32 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
The closed positions are now as follows below. Although my portfolio is still running ahead of the S&P500, the gap has narrowed considerably with the last 3 groups of sales running losses. I will be running the stock screen either today or tomorrow in order to find replacements for the 5 sold.
| Screen Run Date | Exit Date | Picks Cost | Picks $ Gain (Loss) | Picks % Gain | Annualized Rate | S&P Cost | S&P $ Gain (Loss) | S&P % Gain | Picks Vs. S&P |
| 11/4/2015 | 4/22/2016 | $4,985.56 | $640.01 | 12.84% | 27.18% | $2,110.60 | -$19.02 | -0.90% | 13.74% |
| 12/27/2015 | 5/20/2016 | $4,966.27 | $84.28 | 1.70% | 4.21% | $2,057.77 | -$5.45 | -0.26% | 1.96% |
| 1/30/2016 | 6/24/2016 | $4,977.37 | $1,545.54 | 31.05% | 76.56% | $1,940.24 | $97.06 | 5.00% | 26.05% |
| 2/27/2016 | 7/22/2016 | $4,955.49 | $728.95 | 14.71% | 36.27% | $1,948.05 | $226.98 | 11.65% | 3.06% |
| 3/25/2016 | 10/7/2016 | $4,951.71 | -$288.30 | -5.82% | -10.69% | $2,035.94 | $117.80 | 5.79% | -11.61% |
| 4/23/2016 | 11/7/2016 | $4,809.06 | -$158.47 | -3.30% | -5.99% | $2,091.58 | -$6.40 | -0.31% | -2.99% |
| 5/21/2016 | 1/13/2017 | $4,974.35 | -$408.03 | -8.20% | -12.46% | $2,052.32 | $222.32 | 10.83% | -19.04% |
| Total Closed | $34,619.81 | $2,143.99 | 6.19% | $14,236.50 | $633.29 | 4.45% | 1.74% | ||
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
January 15th, 2017 at 7:31:19 AM
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Here's the result of this month's stock screen:
| Symbol | Name | Last Close |
| AAOI | Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. | 28.22 |
| ACLS | Axcelis Technologies, Inc. | 15.90 |
| AOBC | Smith & Wesson Holding Corporation | 20.60 |
| CGIX | Cancer Genetics, Inc. | 1.70 |
| CRAY | Cray Inc | 18.60 |
| CRTO | Criteo S.A. | 45.78 |
| FIT | Fitbit, Inc. | 7.44 |
| GOGO | Gogo Inc. | 9.54 |
| IPXL | Impax Laboratories, Inc. | 12.85 |
| LIVN | LivaNova PLC | 47.38 |
| LXFT | Luxoft Holding, Inc. | 59.05 |
| NMBL | Nimble Storage, Inc. | 8.43 |
| NVEE | NV5 Global, Inc. | 35.45 |
| OOMA | Ooma, Inc. | 9.00 |
| ORBK | Orbotech Ltd. | 33.41 |
| P | Pandora Media, Inc. | 12.76 |
| PMTS | CPI Card Group Inc. | 4.35 |
| SEDG | SolarEdge Technologies, Inc. | 13.50 |
| SIGM | Sigma Designs, Inc. | 6.75 |
| SITO | SITO Mobile, Ltd. | 2.36 |
| ST | Sensata Technologies Holding N.V. | 41.55 |
| TNDM | Tandem Diabetes Care, Inc. | 2.40 |
| VJET | voxeljet AG | 3.47 |
| VRTU | Virtusa Corporation | 27.61 |
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
January 20th, 2017 at 8:30:13 AM
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Just to get on the record here, my crystal ball says that the market peaks today for the foreseeable future.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
January 24th, 2017 at 1:41:01 PM
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There were a couple of pieces if great news out today. The below is an excerpt out of a press release via GlobalNewswire.
SAN DIEGO and MELBOURNE, Australia and SPRINGFIELD, Va., Jan. 24, 2017 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Organovo Holdings, Inc. (ONVO) (“Organovo”), a three-dimensional biology company focused on delivering scientific and medical breakthroughs using its 3D bioprinting technology, today announced a collaboration with Professor Melissa Little and the Murdoch Childrens Research Institute, The Royal Children’s Hospital, Melbourne, Australia to develop an architecturally correct kidney for potential therapeutic applications. The collaboration has been made possible by a generous gift from the Methuselah Foundation (“Methuselah”) as part of its ongoing University 3D Bioprinter Program.
“Partnerships with world-class institutions can accelerate groundbreaking work in finding cures for critical unmet disease needs and the development of implantable therapeutic tissues," said Keith Murphy, CEO, Organovo. “This collaboration with Professor Little’s lab is another important step in this direction. With the devoted and ongoing support of the Methuselah Foundation, leading researchers are able to leverage Organovo’s powerful technology platform to achieve significant breakthroughs.”
“We have developed an approach for recreating human kidney tissue from stem cells,” said Professor Melissa Little, Theme Director of Cell Biology at Murdoch Childrens Research Institute. “Using Organovo’s bioprinter will give us the opportunity to bioprint these cells into a more accurate model of the kidney. While initially important for modelling disease and screening drugs, we hope that this is also the first step towards regenerative medicine for kidney disease. We are very grateful to Organovo and the Methuselah Foundation for this generous support, which will enable us to advance our research with the first Organovo bioprinter in the southern hemisphere.”
Under Methuselah Foundation's University 3D Bioprinter Program, Methuselah is donating at least $500,000 in direct funding to be divided among several institutions for Organovo bioprinter research projects. This funding will cover budgeted bioprinter costs and key aspects of project execution.
"We at the Methuselah Foundation have been a long-time supporter of academic and industry research in 3D bioprinting, regenerative medicine, and tissue engineering," said David Gobel, CEO, Methuselah Foundation. "Our University 3D Bioprinter Program puts Organovo’s breakthrough 3D bioprinting technology in the hands of the brightest scientists at tissue engineering centers of excellence."
SAN DIEGO and MELBOURNE, Australia and SPRINGFIELD, Va., Jan. 24, 2017 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Organovo Holdings, Inc. (ONVO) (“Organovo”), a three-dimensional biology company focused on delivering scientific and medical breakthroughs using its 3D bioprinting technology, today announced a collaboration with Professor Melissa Little and the Murdoch Childrens Research Institute, The Royal Children’s Hospital, Melbourne, Australia to develop an architecturally correct kidney for potential therapeutic applications. The collaboration has been made possible by a generous gift from the Methuselah Foundation (“Methuselah”) as part of its ongoing University 3D Bioprinter Program.
“Partnerships with world-class institutions can accelerate groundbreaking work in finding cures for critical unmet disease needs and the development of implantable therapeutic tissues," said Keith Murphy, CEO, Organovo. “This collaboration with Professor Little’s lab is another important step in this direction. With the devoted and ongoing support of the Methuselah Foundation, leading researchers are able to leverage Organovo’s powerful technology platform to achieve significant breakthroughs.”
“We have developed an approach for recreating human kidney tissue from stem cells,” said Professor Melissa Little, Theme Director of Cell Biology at Murdoch Childrens Research Institute. “Using Organovo’s bioprinter will give us the opportunity to bioprint these cells into a more accurate model of the kidney. While initially important for modelling disease and screening drugs, we hope that this is also the first step towards regenerative medicine for kidney disease. We are very grateful to Organovo and the Methuselah Foundation for this generous support, which will enable us to advance our research with the first Organovo bioprinter in the southern hemisphere.”
Under Methuselah Foundation's University 3D Bioprinter Program, Methuselah is donating at least $500,000 in direct funding to be divided among several institutions for Organovo bioprinter research projects. This funding will cover budgeted bioprinter costs and key aspects of project execution.
"We at the Methuselah Foundation have been a long-time supporter of academic and industry research in 3D bioprinting, regenerative medicine, and tissue engineering," said David Gobel, CEO, Methuselah Foundation. "Our University 3D Bioprinter Program puts Organovo’s breakthrough 3D bioprinting technology in the hands of the brightest scientists at tissue engineering centers of excellence."
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
January 24th, 2017 at 1:45:32 PM
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The second piece of great news is below, an excerpt out of a Zack's release.
On Tuesday, shares of medical device company InVivo Therapeutics NVIV are gaining big, up almost 15% in afternoon trading on news that a patient in its INSPIRE study has significantly improved.
InVivo announced that a patient, who enrolled in its INSPIRE study back in December, has improved from a complete AIS A spinal cord injury to an incomplete AIS B spinal cord injury in the time between discharge and one-month evaluation.
This is the sixth out of the eleven patients—a 54.5% conversion rate—in follow-up to have had an AIS grade improvement. INSPIRE conversion rates are considerably higher than others.
“The AIS conversion rate observed thus far in the INSPIRE study has exceeded expectations,” CEO and Chairman Mark Perrin said. “We look forward to following this patient’s progress, and we’re hopeful that we will continue to observe positive INSPIRE results as we work towards completing enrollment.”
INSPIRE stands for InVivo Study of Probable Benefit of the Neuro-Spinal Scaffold™ for Safety and Neurologic Recovery in Subjects with Complete Thoracic AIS A Spinal Cord Injury. It was designed to show the safety of the Neuro-Spinal Scaffold, one of InVivo’s premier medical devices; it’s an implant that is surgically placed following acute spinal cord injury.
On Tuesday, shares of medical device company InVivo Therapeutics NVIV are gaining big, up almost 15% in afternoon trading on news that a patient in its INSPIRE study has significantly improved.
InVivo announced that a patient, who enrolled in its INSPIRE study back in December, has improved from a complete AIS A spinal cord injury to an incomplete AIS B spinal cord injury in the time between discharge and one-month evaluation.
This is the sixth out of the eleven patients—a 54.5% conversion rate—in follow-up to have had an AIS grade improvement. INSPIRE conversion rates are considerably higher than others.
“The AIS conversion rate observed thus far in the INSPIRE study has exceeded expectations,” CEO and Chairman Mark Perrin said. “We look forward to following this patient’s progress, and we’re hopeful that we will continue to observe positive INSPIRE results as we work towards completing enrollment.”
INSPIRE stands for InVivo Study of Probable Benefit of the Neuro-Spinal Scaffold™ for Safety and Neurologic Recovery in Subjects with Complete Thoracic AIS A Spinal Cord Injury. It was designed to show the safety of the Neuro-Spinal Scaffold, one of InVivo’s premier medical devices; it’s an implant that is surgically placed following acute spinal cord injury.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
January 24th, 2017 at 4:50:51 PM
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Quote: steeldcoJust to get on the record here, my crystal ball says that the market peaks today for the foreseeable future.[/q
technicals still positive, I'm staying in for whileget second you pig
January 25th, 2017 at 6:28:55 AM
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ontariodealer, good call and good luck!
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
February 10th, 2017 at 7:05:31 AM
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It looks like one of the current picks, out of the stock screener, is moving up to be a candidate for a 100% gain. It's Infinera (INFN). Up around 62% as I write this.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
March 2nd, 2017 at 8:53:40 AM
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By way of update, I have not run a recent stock screen and added picks since I firmly believe that we are on the cusp of a good sized market decline. This morning I watched an interview with David Stockman (Reagan's Budget Director) and his opinion on the upcoming financial problems rings more true than not (in my opinion). There is an upcoming expiration of the law that had temporarily lifted the country's debt ceiling. That happens on March 15, 2017. If it is not dealt with then Stockman claims that we run out of cash towards the end of summer since we are burning thru $75B per month. The debt ceiling will be set at $20T and is a hard stop. Can the WH and Congress work together to once again extend the debt ceiling holiday? I don't know but I don't want to be in the market until we find out.
BTW, Stockman has labeled the current stock market run as "The greatest suckers' rally of all time". He just may be right.
The month of April, next month, keeps appearing in my nightmares..............
BTW, Stockman has labeled the current stock market run as "The greatest suckers' rally of all time". He just may be right.
The month of April, next month, keeps appearing in my nightmares..............
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
March 2nd, 2017 at 8:56:25 AM
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BTW, the current market action to me seems a lot like Wall Street painting the charts in order to exit, and or leverage positions.
Just something that is bothering me and making me lean towards Stockman's opinions.
Just something that is bothering me and making me lean towards Stockman's opinions.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
March 2nd, 2017 at 9:06:23 AM
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So we should sell off every major position we have?
March 2nd, 2017 at 9:45:53 AM
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I haven't sold everything but I am wrestling with it. I'm just not buying until I have a bit more clarity as to whether some of the things that Trump has proposed will happen, which have been used as the reason for the market rise. I wasn't feeling good about things for a while now and Stockman ended up reminding me about the debt ceiling issue, which I had forgotten about, and made my view even more pessimistic.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
March 2nd, 2017 at 9:50:34 AM
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Quote: steeldco
BTW, Stockman has labeled the current stock market run as "The greatest suckers' rally of all time". He just may be right..
I have Stockman at 1/5 to soon be added to a very long list of market prognosticators who have made wrong calls and who never seem to acknowledge their fundamental wrongness. They just go right on predicting. The market will surely pull back at some time. But Stockman can't tell us when. Neither can anybody else. Unless they happen to call it right through sheer luck.
Please don't feed the trolls
March 2nd, 2017 at 10:04:19 AM
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Quote: lilredroosterI have Stockman at 1/5 to soon be added to a very long list of market prognosticators who have made wrong calls and who never seem to acknowledge their fundamental wrongness. They just go right on predicting. The market will surely pull back at some time. But Stockman can't tell us when. Neither can anybody else. Unless they happen to call it right through sheer luck.
Fair enough. I have always said that my general market calls generally suck. But not always.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
March 2nd, 2017 at 10:04:20 AM
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Quote: lilredroosterI have Stockman at 1/5 to soon be added to a very long list of market prognosticators who have made wrong calls and who never seem to acknowledge their fundamental wrongness. They just go right on predicting. The market will surely pull back at some time. But Stockman can't tell us when. Neither can anybody else. Unless they happen to call it right through sheer luck.
Fair enough. I have always said that my general market calls generally suck. But not always.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
March 2nd, 2017 at 10:25:46 AM
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Quote: steeldcoFair enough. I have always said that my general market calls generally suck. But not always.
I didn't mean to criticize you. Your stuff is fun stuff. I like to take aim at the stuffed shirts. The suits with the bobbling heads.
Please don't feed the trolls
March 2nd, 2017 at 10:41:58 AM
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We hit the debt ceiling every year. If Congress doesn't raise it, we get to see another government shutdown.
The S&P gained in seven of the past ten shutdowns, and hardly flinched in the seventeen shutdowns since 1970.
It gained 2.4% in the most recent fifteen day shutdown in 2013. Schwab
We need more government shutdowns.
Stockman interview: Zero Hedge
The S&P gained in seven of the past ten shutdowns, and hardly flinched in the seventeen shutdowns since 1970.
It gained 2.4% in the most recent fifteen day shutdown in 2013. Schwab
We need more government shutdowns.
Stockman interview: Zero Hedge
March 2nd, 2017 at 10:44:40 AM
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No problem. No offense taken. I've always said the same thing about my macro market calls. I just didn't know if you had read this thread very much. The media? Please don't get me started with them. They're just so full of crap.......and I'm talking about the vast majority and it's not just the left or right wings.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
March 2nd, 2017 at 10:47:51 AM
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Quote: TankoWe hit the debt ceiling every year. If Congress doesn't raise it, we get to see another government shutdown.
The S&P gained in seven of the past ten shutdowns, and hardly flinched in the seventeen shutdowns since 1970.
It gained 2.4% in the most recent fifteen day shutdown in 2013. Schwab
We need more government shutdowns.
Stockman interview: Zero Hedge
I know that everyone always says "well, it'll be different this time". However, it applies in this case. The recent market rally is in anticipation of some of Trump's promises being kept. The biggest of which being the tax cuts and the infrastructure spending. I now highly doubt that those will happen......unless he learns how to "play nice" and I don't think that he can.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
March 2nd, 2017 at 10:50:28 AM
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I vividly remember the 90s. 95, 96, 97, 98 and 99 were huge years. The S&P including dividends moved 37%, 23%, 33%, 29% and in 1999 it gained 21%. By the end of '97 there were lots and lots of predictions that the bear was about to growl. The bear came; but it wasn't until March of 2000.
Please don't feed the trolls
March 2nd, 2017 at 11:00:25 AM
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Quote: TankoWe hit the debt ceiling every year. If Congress doesn't raise it, we get to see another government shutdown.
The S&P gained in seven of the past ten shutdowns, and hardly flinched in the seventeen shutdowns since 1970.
It gained 2.4% in the most recent fifteen day shutdown in 2013. Schwab
We need more government shutdowns.
Stockman interview: Zero Hedge
From Wikipedia........
"On 5 August 2011, S&P issued the first ever downgrade in the federal government's credit rating, citing their April warnings, the difficulty of bridging the parties and that the resulting agreement fell well short of the hoped-for comprehensive 'grand bargain'.[23] The credit downgrade and debt ceiling debacle contributed to the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling nearly 2,000 points in late July and August. Following the downgrade itself, the DJIA had one of its worst days in history and fell 635 points on August 8"
I think that was somewhere around a 18% market decline.
My crystal balls say we lose around 25%-30% before 10/31/17.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
March 5th, 2017 at 2:13:01 AM
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Bear markets have a very strong correlation with recessions. If the market drops and there is no recession, almost always, the bulls will buy strongly on the dips bringing the market back. But even this very strong correlation does not IMHO mean that a bear market could not occur without a recession. But for a betting man, (and I'm not one when it comes to the market), betting that a bear market won't happen until there are signs of a recession is IMHO a pretty good bet.
Last edited by: lilredrooster on Mar 5, 2017
Please don't feed the trolls
March 5th, 2017 at 3:31:28 AM
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old saying: 'the market climbs a wall of worry'
market crash prognosticators are all over the place. The old saying for them is 'you never see the bus coming that runs over you'. Not to say you can't get clobbered, but you don't see it coming.
market crash prognosticators are all over the place. The old saying for them is 'you never see the bus coming that runs over you'. Not to say you can't get clobbered, but you don't see it coming.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
March 5th, 2017 at 5:32:35 AM
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The market has a strong upward bias because human beings have optimism in their DNA. They buy because they believe they're going to make money, get rich. Over half the world believes they're going to heaven or paradise after their last breath. All because of a book written thousands of years ago. Nothing against religion. But it shows great optimism.
Please don't feed the trolls
March 5th, 2017 at 5:38:29 AM
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Quote: lilredroosterThe market has a strong upward bias because human beings have optimism in their DNA. They buy because they believe they're going to make money, get rich. Over half the world believes they're going to heaven or paradise after their last breath. All because of a book written thousands of years ago. Nothing against religion. But it shows great optimism.
But the prevalence of doom-sayers, often in ads right there in the financial news, suggests pessimism has a currency as well, and it's a way to make money for some.
Hey, I'm not saying there is no crash coming. My bones say the next decline [there is always one in the future, but when?] will be worse than usual ... you have to be prepared for these eventualities.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
March 5th, 2017 at 5:47:40 AM
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Quote: odiousgambitBut the prevalence of doom-sayers, often in ads right there in the financial news, suggests pessimism has a currency as well
Point well taken. But I believe that unless there is a great amount of undeniable fundamental evidence that pessimism is justified then optimism will trump pessimism. And optimism does not require strong evidence.
Please don't feed the trolls
March 5th, 2017 at 9:23:22 AM
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Quote: lilredroosterPoint well taken. But I believe that unless there is a great amount of undeniable fundamental evidence that pessimism is justified then optimism will trump pessimism. And optimism does not require strong evidence.
Perception is reality until reality rears its, sometimes ugly sometimes not, head. Will the reality warrant the current optimism? Or will reality warrant something much worse than mere pessimism? I say the reality will lead us right into a large market decline.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
March 5th, 2017 at 12:48:35 PM
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Quote: steeldcoPerception is reality until reality rears its, sometimes ugly sometimes not, head. Will the reality warrant the current optimism? Or will reality warrant something much worse than mere pessimism? I say the reality will lead us right into a large market decline.
One question is do Mr. and Mrs, America keep listening to their advisor relationship salesperson and keep in stocks "for the long haul" next downturn. For many of us, 2008 wiped out a decade of returns. 2000-2008 was up and down but mostly dead. Because we just "held."
People do not understand that in a mutual fund the manager cannot sell beyond a point when markets are crashing except to meet redemption needs. If people wake up to this then the crash comes, if not then not as much.
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
March 5th, 2017 at 1:02:25 PM
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Quote: AZDuffmanOne question is do Mr. and Mrs, America keep listening to their advisor relationship salesperson and keep in stocks "for the long haul" next downturn. For many of us, 2008 wiped out a decade of returns. 2000-2008 was up and down but mostly dead. Because we just "held."
In 2009 the S&P including dividends came back 26.46%. In 2010 15.06%. A mediocre year in 2011 of 2.11% and another big year in 2012 of 16%. Every single year since 2008 has been an up year (2015 was only up when dividends are considered) and some of the ups have been huge. That's why many say the best strategy is buy and hold; not to try to time the market. It's tough when the drop is as great as 2008. But that is the risk premium. You are forced into exposure in order to make decent gains for the long term.
Last edited by: lilredrooster on Mar 5, 2017
Please don't feed the trolls
March 6th, 2017 at 1:20:27 AM
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The U.S. and other world economies have not been able to rid themselves of the boom/bust phenomenon. The fact of it happening causes lots of pain. The U.S. has only 2 tools to deal with the bust side of it: reducing interest rates and otherwise freeing up funds to stimulate business activity. And to be able to do this they must borrow money and go deeper into debt. I once had a history professor who said that the world economy is so complicated that there is no one who can say that they truly understand it. I believe that is true and that it's also true, that so far, computer modeling is not especially helpful.
Please don't feed the trolls
March 6th, 2017 at 4:49:09 AM
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Nobody knows for sure, but the the long haul, best guess is that stocks will outperform any and all other types of investments. It may be that in the future no investments do as well as in the 20th century, but I don't see, say, precious metals taking the lead in a long-run scenario.Quote: AZDuffmanOne question is do Mr. and Mrs, America keep listening to their advisor relationship salesperson and keep in stocks "for the long haul" next downturn.
If you got wiped out it was because you sold.Quote:For many of us, 2008 wiped out a decade of returns. 2000-2008 was up and down but mostly dead. Because we just "held."
In 2008 if you saw things were crashing, then sold, you already minimized your chances of benefiting, which would also require getting back in at the right time. If you saw it coming and sold before the crash, then got back in at the right point in 2009, of course we all have our hats off to you, bowing and scraping in your presence as well.
I wouldn't want my fund manager thinking he knew when to sell anyway. In any case, there's no need for mutual funds these days except when you are forced to use them, like in 401ksQuote:People do not understand that in a mutual fund the manager cannot sell beyond a point when markets are crashing except to meet redemption needs. If people wake up to this then the crash comes, if not then not as much.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
March 6th, 2017 at 5:34:34 AM
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I have the attitude that if things go south the value of my portfolio could decrease by 50%. I think if a person doesn't accept that possibility then they're not being realistic. Of course, someone could say I'm not being realistic. That I could lose 85%. Whatever. If that happens I'll accept it. Eat a lot of tuna fish. Regular, not albacore.
Please don't feed the trolls
March 6th, 2017 at 6:34:58 AM
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Quote: lilredroosterI have the attitude that if things go south the value of my portfolio could decrease by 50%. I think if a person doesn't accept that possibility then they're not being realistic. Of course, someone could say I'm not being realistic. That I could lose 85%. Whatever. If that happens I'll accept it. Eat a lot of tuna fish. Regular, not albacore.
Let's say it goes down 85%. How will it come to pass that you sustained a loss? Only if you sell your stock [I know you knew that]. That is the simple lesson to grasp for some people though that seemingly just can't be grasped. I'd put it up there on the level of the Gambler's Fallacy as the fact that some cannot seem to get a handle on.
Furthermore, if you weren't buying once it went below 50% to the best of your wherewithal to do so, as a friend, if one, I'd want to go through your house for guns and sharp objects to remove them, as odds are within a very short period of time you'd definitely want to shoot yourself or something - a good bet on the level of allowing the doubling of a bet on the Don't in craps after the point is set, I'd say.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
March 9th, 2017 at 6:37:32 AM
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For those who may have missed it, Nimble Storage Inc (NMBL), a pick out of the stock screen of June, 2016 received a buy out offer.
It will have returned around a 56% gain.
It will have returned around a 56% gain.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
March 29th, 2017 at 3:32:23 AM
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The world's largest mutual fund company BlackRock is in the process of 86ing its' stock picking homo sapien managers in favor of machines using artificial intelligence to make buying and selling decisions.
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/28/business/dealbook/blackrock-actively-managed-funds-computer-models.html
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/28/business/dealbook/blackrock-actively-managed-funds-computer-models.html
Please don't feed the trolls
March 29th, 2017 at 4:47:51 AM
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Good idea. Most fund managers can't match the S&P anyway.
The computers are for high frequency trading, where even one millisecond makes a difference.
Brokerages can pay to co-locate and install their servers as close as possible to the stock exchange servers in order to shave even more milliseconds off the trades.
Co-location
The computers are for high frequency trading, where even one millisecond makes a difference.
Brokerages can pay to co-locate and install their servers as close as possible to the stock exchange servers in order to shave even more milliseconds off the trades.
Co-location
May 13th, 2017 at 10:37:59 AM
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After a long period of inaction, I am going to sell out the 4 oldest picks made by the stock screen.
Also, I will be (for the first time in my lifetime) adding 5 short candidates.
Here is what is sold:
Also, I will be (for the first time in my lifetime) adding 5 short candidates.
Here is what is sold:
| Symbols | Name | Screen Run Date | # of Shares | Cost | Selling Price | Gain | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| SYNA | ELEC COMP-SEMIC | 6/25/2016 | 19 | $52.22 | $56.15 | $74.67 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| IPXL | MED-GENERIC DRG | 6/25/2016 | 34 | $29.26 | $17.65 | -$394.74 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| NMBL | COMP-STORAGE DEV | 6/25/2016 | 125 | $7.99 | $12.50 | $563.75 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| OOMA | COMMUNICATIONS COMPONENTS | 6/25/2016 | 124 | $8.05 | $11.95 | $483.60 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Total of the 4 Picks | $3,983.97 | $4,711.25 | $727.28 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| S&P 500 since 06/25/16 | $2,000.54 | $2,390.90 | $390.36 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Here is a recap of the closed positions. Still beating the S&P.
| Screen Run Date | Exit Date | Picks Cost | Picks $ Gain (Loss) | Picks % Gain | Annualized Rate | S&P Cost | S&P $ Gain (Loss) | S&P % Gain | Picks Vs. S&P |
| 11/4/2015 | 4/22/2016 | $4,985.56 | $640.01 | 12.84% | 27.18% | $2,110.60 | -$19.02 | -0.90% | 13.74% |
| 12/27/2015 | 5/20/2016 | $4,966.27 | $84.28 | 1.70% | 4.21% | $2,057.77 | -$5.45 | -0.26% | 1.96% |
| 1/30/2016 | 6/24/2016 | $4,977.37 | $1,545.54 | 31.05% | 76.56% | $1,940.24 | $97.06 | 5.00% | 26.05% |
| 2/27/2016 | 7/22/2016 | $4,955.49 | $728.95 | 14.71% | 36.27% | $1,948.05 | $226.98 | 11.65% | 3.06% |
| 3/25/2016 | 10/7/2016 | $4,951.71 | -$288.30 | -5.82% | -10.69% | $2,035.94 | $117.80 | 5.79% | -11.61% |
| 4/23/2016 | 11/7/2016 | $4,809.06 | -$158.47 | -3.30% | -5.99% | $2,091.58 | -$6.40 | -0.31% | -2.99% |
| 5/21/2016 | 1/13/2017 | $4,974.35 | -$408.03 | -8.20% | -12.46% | $2,052.32 | $222.32 | 10.83% | -19.04% |
| 6/25/2016 | 5/15/2017 | $3,983.97 | $727.28 | 18.26% | 20.28% | $2,000.54 | $390.36 | 19.51% | -1.26% |
| Total Closed | $38,603.78 | $2,871.27 | 7.44% | $16,237.04 | $1,023.65 | 6.30% | 1.13% | ||
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
May 13th, 2017 at 10:44:06 AM
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5 Shorts being added to the stock screen portfolio:
| Synmbol | Industry | Date Picked | # of Shares | Cost per Share |
| MIME | Internet - Software | 5/15/2017 | -41 | $24.29 |
| LPI | Oil and Gas - Exploration and Production - United States | 5/15/2017 | -81 | $12.31 |
| ANGI | Internet - Content | 5/15/2017 | -85 | $11.63 |
| BYD | Gaming | 5/15/2017 | -40 | $24.80 |
| INAP | Internet - Services | 5/15/2017 | -296 | $3.37 |
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
May 13th, 2017 at 10:48:49 AM
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The Stock Screen portfolio will become:
| Symbols | Name | Screen Run Date | # of Shares | Cost |
| LCI | LANNETT INC | 7/23/2016 | 40 | $30.67 |
| NVEE | NV5 HOLDING INC | 7/23/2016 | 39 | $31.69 |
| ORBK | ORBOTECH LTD | 7/23/2016 | 45 | $27.36 |
| P | PANDORA MEDIA | 7/23/2016 | 101 | $12.28 |
| HLTH | NOBILIS HEALTH | 10/8/2016 | 287 | $3.49 |
| FN | FABRINET | 10/8/2016 | 22 | $45.14 |
| VRTU | VIRTUSA | 10/8/2016 | 44 | $22.85 |
| LXFT | LUXOFT HOLDING | 10/8/2016 | 19 | $53.37 |
| QRVO | QORVO INC | 11/6/2016 | 20 | 51.08 |
| INFN | Infinera | 11/6/2016 | 137 | 7.32 |
| CRTO | Criteo S.A. | 1/14/2017 | 22 | 45.78 |
| MIME | Mimecast Limited | 5/15/2017 | -41 | 24.29 |
| LPI | Laredo Petroleum, Inc. | 5/15/2017 | -81 | 12.31 |
| ANGI | Angie's List, Inc. | 5/15/2017 | -85 | 11.63 |
| BYD | Boyd Gaming Corporation | 5/15/2017 | -40 | 24.80 |
| INAP | Internap Corporation | 5/15/2017 | -296 | 3.37 |
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
May 19th, 2017 at 4:24:39 PM
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From a Bloomberg article:
"“If the production cuts were to be extended, the participating countries would lose further market shares, which they are hardly likely to accept for any length of time,” the report said.
It isn’t going to get a lot better for OPEC in 2018, either. JPMorgan is forecasting U.S. shale to grow by 1.05 million barrels a day next year, while Bank of America Merrill Lynch has a figure of 950,000 barrels a day.
Even a “drastic” downward shift in the market conditions won’t lead to a rapid collapse of U.S. oil production, according to Rystad Energy. Many wells that have been drilled—but haven’t been completed—could still be brought online profitably if the price falls to $40 or even $30 a barrel, Rystad said in a report on May 11."
Profitably at $30? Wow.....just wow.
"“If the production cuts were to be extended, the participating countries would lose further market shares, which they are hardly likely to accept for any length of time,” the report said.
It isn’t going to get a lot better for OPEC in 2018, either. JPMorgan is forecasting U.S. shale to grow by 1.05 million barrels a day next year, while Bank of America Merrill Lynch has a figure of 950,000 barrels a day.
Even a “drastic” downward shift in the market conditions won’t lead to a rapid collapse of U.S. oil production, according to Rystad Energy. Many wells that have been drilled—but haven’t been completed—could still be brought online profitably if the price falls to $40 or even $30 a barrel, Rystad said in a report on May 11."
Profitably at $30? Wow.....just wow.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
June 23rd, 2017 at 10:41:24 AM
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Quote: steeldcoThe Stock Screen portfolio will become:
Symbols Name Screen Run Date # of Shares Cost LCI LANNETT INC 7/23/2016 40 $30.67 NVEE NV5 HOLDING INC 7/23/2016 39 $31.69 ORBK ORBOTECH LTD 7/23/2016 45 $27.36 P PANDORA MEDIA 7/23/2016 101 $12.28 HLTH NOBILIS HEALTH 10/8/2016 287 $3.49 FN FABRINET 10/8/2016 22 $45.14 VRTU VIRTUSA 10/8/2016 44 $22.85 LXFT LUXOFT HOLDING 10/8/2016 19 $53.37 QRVO QORVO INC 11/6/2016 20 51.08 INFN Infinera 11/6/2016 137 7.32 CRTO Criteo S.A. 1/14/2017 22 45.78 MIME Mimecast Limited 5/15/2017 -41 24.29 LPI Laredo Petroleum, Inc. 5/15/2017 -81 12.31 ANGI Angie's List, Inc. 5/15/2017 -85 11.63 BYD Boyd Gaming Corporation 5/15/2017 -40 24.80 INAP Internap Corporation 5/15/2017 -296 3.37
Infinera (INFN) today is approaching a 65.43% gain since being added to the portfolio. Nice!
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
June 23rd, 2017 at 12:34:52 PM
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Quote: steeldco5 Shorts being added to the stock screen portfolio
I'm going to watch this.
Seems to me the problem with shorting is that you can be right that the outfit is in trouble, yet you have to be right about what's going to happen in a small window of time and just be wrong in your timing.
Of course you can keep shorting and keep shorting - sounds like that can feel like throwing good money after bad, though.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
June 23rd, 2017 at 1:02:37 PM
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Quote: steeldcoAfter a long period of inaction, I am going to sell out the 4 oldest picks made by the stock screen.
Also, I will be (for the first time in my lifetime) adding 5 short candidates.
Here is what is sold:
Symbols Name Screen Run Date # of Shares Cost Selling Price Gain SYNA ELEC COMP-SEMIC 6/25/2016 19 $52.22 $56.15 $74.67 IPXL MED-GENERIC DRG 6/25/2016 34 $29.26 $17.65 -$394.74 NMBL COMP-STORAGE DEV 6/25/2016 125 $7.99 $12.50 $563.75 OOMA COMMUNICATIONS COMPONENTS 6/25/2016 124 $8.05 $11.95 $483.60 Total of the 4 Picks $3,983.97 $4,711.25 $727.28 S&P 500 since 06/25/16 $2,000.54 $2,390.90 $390.36
Here is a recap of the closed positions. Still beating the S&P.
Screen Run Date Exit Date Picks Cost Picks $ Gain (Loss) Picks % Gain Annualized Rate S&P Cost S&P $ Gain (Loss) S&P % Gain Picks Vs. S&P 11/4/2015 4/22/2016 $4,985.56 $640.01 12.84% 27.18% $2,110.60 -$19.02 -0.90% 13.74% 12/27/2015 5/20/2016 $4,966.27 $84.28 1.70% 4.21% $2,057.77 -$5.45 -0.26% 1.96% 1/30/2016 6/24/2016 $4,977.37 $1,545.54 31.05% 76.56% $1,940.24 $97.06 5.00% 26.05% 2/27/2016 7/22/2016 $4,955.49 $728.95 14.71% 36.27% $1,948.05 $226.98 11.65% 3.06% 3/25/2016 10/7/2016 $4,951.71 -$288.30 -5.82% -10.69% $2,035.94 $117.80 5.79% -11.61% 4/23/2016 11/7/2016 $4,809.06 -$158.47 -3.30% -5.99% $2,091.58 -$6.40 -0.31% -2.99% 5/21/2016 1/13/2017 $4,974.35 -$408.03 -8.20% -12.46% $2,052.32 $222.32 10.83% -19.04% 6/25/2016 5/15/2017 $3,983.97 $727.28 18.26% 20.28% $2,000.54 $390.36 19.51% -1.26% Total Closed $38,603.78 $2,871.27 7.44% $16,237.04 $1,023.65 6.30% 1.13%
I'm late to the game, but if I'm reading this right, you have a 7.44% gain,. Is that after commissions and taxes?The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.Recommended online casinos
