Vegas this Wednesday
from Vegas for life. You're just too much of a threat. Try
Laughlin..
Quote: EvenBobSorry, dude. Your exploits in AC have gotten you banned
from Vegas for life. You're just too much of a threat. Try
Laughlin..
Bob - you must be thinking of my twin brother from another mother buzzpaff
Quote: buzzpaffNow you are really flirting with suspension. LOL
Don't hurt to flirt!
Quote: Mission146I wish you well, are you starting with a 10k bankroll like the last Vegas trip?
Yeah bankroll usually the same ±20%
I was also pleased to discover the Public House restaurant at the Venetian. A large selection of good beer, if you like that sort of thing. Terrific appetizers, especially the Devils on Horseback (dates stuffed with bleu cheese and wrapped in bacon). And the beef short rib was amazing!
Meant to try the First restaurant at Venetian as well, but never got around to it.
Quote: PapaChubbyHope you enjoy your visit! I saw Absinthe a few weeks ago and thought it was great. The circus act stuff was pretty average, IMO, but the comedy, most of it quite lewd, was terrific. Can't hardly remember the last time I busted a gut laughing so hard.
I was also pleased to discover the Public House restaurant at the Venetian. A large selection of good beer, if you like that sort of thing. Terrific appetizers, especially the Devils on Horseback (dates stuffed with bleu cheese and wrapped in bacon). And the beef short rib was amazing!
Meant to try the First restaurant at Venetian as well, but never got around to it.
I will definitely check into both of those. I love Delmonico steakhouse at Venetian. I have also heard really good things about Mesa at Caesar's. Any new places like at the Cosmo or Aria I should be on the lookout for?
I've stayed at Aria a few times, and most of the restaurants there are too fru-fru for me. I've eaten at Todd English P.U.B. a few times, but cannot recommend.
In Cosmo, certainly try out Estatorio Milos. I've heard nothing but good things. Wicked Spoon is a lot of fun.
May want to try the new steakhouse in Caesars, Old Homestead.
Quote: teddysPut me in the disrecommend for Mesa. I thought their food was very mediocre. But I went during restaurant week when they were serving the same special to everyone. Their regular service might be better.
In Cosmo, certainly try out Estatorio Milos. I've heard nothing but good things. Wicked Spoon is a lot of fun.
May want to try the new steakhouse in Caesars, Old Homestead.
Yes Old Homestead is excellent (from what I have heard from others) - what/where is the Wicked Spoon?
Quote: aceofspadesYes Old Homestead is excellent (from what I have heard from others) - what/where is the Wicked Spoon?
Buffet that features lots of individual servings of stuff in little bowls. All the way in the back at Cosmo. Up the escalator.
I know how you feel! I love Vegas so much, and I miss it all the time.Quote: aceofspadesGetting the butterflies for my trip to vegas tomorrow!!!
I don't know if you have your itinerary already set, but if it's not too late I can make a few recommendations. Phantom at The Venetian is excellent and will be playing only through the beginning of September so if you're into musicals you definitely have to catch this before it's too late. For a pretty inexpensive yet entertaining show try Fantasy at Luxor. I bought my ticket for about $37 or so through that 1/2 price Tix for Tonight place (forgot the actual name) and it was well worth the money. My absolute favorite is LOVE at The Mirage. I've seen it twice and plan on treating my dad and his girlfriend when we're likely out there next May.
Terry Fator is fun if you get a decent seat. I also saw La Reve and Mystere, but out of my own personal recommendations it would be the ones listed in the paragraph above.
Keep us updated! Post a blog or update here.
Quote: aceofspadesWell I am back from my trip - 4/26 to 4/30 Caesars Palace Las Vegas
Trip bankroll: $10k
Thursday: I normally play $100minimum blackjack 6D, S17, DOA, DAS - however, the $100min tables on the main floor were all H17 and the tables in the Palace Court high limit area were all $500minimum on my first night...so, off I went in search of a better game...
I would love to hear your feedback on my trip!!!
Personally, I would like to see you go to Hooters for an hour with the 10X odds on craps. Bet $10 on every single roll of the dice for an hour (pass or come) with $100 free odds. See how you come out at the end of the hour.
$100min
6Deck
S17
DAS
DOA
Shoe #1 was up and down, could not get a good rhythm or a good count
Shoe #2 was more of the same - in 3 in a row, lose 3 in a row
Shoe #3 - got into trouble here as, the count went in my favor - however, it helped out the dealer more with 3 blackjacks for the dealer, end of shoe was -$800
Shoe #4 - opened the shoe with a $200 bet - got dealt an 8,3 - double down (face down) - against dealer 5, dealer flips over a 7, then takes a 6 for an 18, drum roll on my double down - turn over a 6 for a 17 ughhhh oh well
- continuing that shoe - another double down situation (face down) - 5,5, against dealer 3 - dealer turns over a 4, then takes a hit of an Ace - my card was a 3 ughhhh again
end of shoe #4 down another $800 for a total of negative $1,600
table switch
Shoe #5 at a $200 minimum table -
first hand for me - natural blackjack
second hand for me - natural blackjack
great - now I am only down $1k
shoe continues back and forth - still hovering around negative $1k
then the count got in my favor
lost two hands then won 5 hands in a row
so, now down $400
Shoe #6: won the first two hands then got up and now having lunch
so far for the trip for blackjack: even steven
however, I did place $100 win bet on the Mets at +115
so, for the trip I am +$115
Quote: aceofspades
so far for the trip for blackjack: even steven
however, I did place $100 win bet on the Mets at +115
so, for the trip I am +$115
I was watching that game--the Mets tried mightily to lose your money, but didn't succeed!
Session #2:
same rules as earlier
shoe starts out great - dealt two Aces against dealer 4 - split Aces - dealer paints both of them - dealer ends up busting anyway - nice start to the shoe
lose the next two hands - still up $200 for the shoe - then the usual up and down, no count good enough to press
end of shoe still up $200 for the session
next shoe more of the same - up and down - a few win streaks of 3 hands - but, yet again, losing streaks of 3 or 4 hands
shoe # 3 comes and lady variance (plus the count) are in my favor and I get out ahead with a few double downs that finally go my way and not the dealer's - new guy jumps in for last hand of the shoe and dealer gets blackjack LOL - session now +$800
shoe #4 - more of the same up and down, down and up - shoe ends without much to write home about session now +$600
shoe #5 - things are going ok - get up another $300 for a +1100 session HOWEVER - dealer goes on an insane run - I lost 3 doubles, a split, and 5 other hands in a row to end the shoe even
I decided to go write this post and take a mini-nap
more later...
still +$115 (LEt's go Mets!!!) for the trip
Would you consider setting a session win limit of $1,000, excluding only a rule not to leave a shoe during a favorable count? In my estimation, that'd be a reasonable goal to set, but I've never played BJ with that kind of money. I was thinking of it in terms of betting $20/hand, I'd happily leave with $100 unless the shoe was looking great for me when I got to that point.
Quote: Mission146It was almost exactly the opposite.
Would you consider setting a session win limit of $1,000, excluding only a rule not to leave a shoe during a favorable count? In my estimation, that'd be a reasonable goal to set, but I've never played BJ with that kind of money. I was thinking of it in terms of betting $20/hand, I'd happily leave with $100 unless the shoe was looking great for me when I got to that point.
Mission - basically you are looking to win 5 units ($20 bet being one unit)?
I normally try to win 10 units in a session then I stop
If I am down, then my goal in that session is to get back to even for the session
Quote: aceofspadesWell here is the next update (Mission - lady variance did play a role - as usual)
Beg to differ, Ace. Variance is NO lady. Female maybe, but no lady. lol
Quote: aceofspadesMission - basically you are looking to win 5 units ($20 bet being one unit)?
I normally try to win 10 units in a session then I stop
If I am down, then my goal in that session is to get back to even for the session
I would say that is how I would go if I were betting $20/hand. In a game in which the HE is very close to 0.00, five units seems like a pretty reasonable time to walk away, to me.
The way you do it seems to work for you, though. I was basically just making the suggestion if you find yourself ahead after a couple of up-and-down shoes and not at a particularly advantageous point in the current shoe. Please don't take it as me telling you how to play, though, your minimum hand is more than I usually even sit down with!
Won $1k in 10 hands (including a $300 bet plus $300 double down 8,3 versus dealer 9 ... dealer turns 19 an my face down card was a 10)
doubled my buy-in and got up
total trip +1,115
Quote: Mission146Nice!!!!
Thanks Mission - I needed a quick hit under my
belt for this trip!
Onward and upward...
The second thing confusing to me is you talk like winning or losing $800 or a thousand is a big deal, but yet you are playing $100 and $200 min tables. If you are doing any kind of spreading, that is one big bet. Even if not spreading that is 4 or 5 units. Swings like that are so minor, I wouldn't even call them a swing. It's just completely normal fluctuation.
Third. Stop limits? or Session limits? Really?? This idea of protecting a win is just complete non-sense. It's just positive valiance associated with normal play. If you get up $1000 and quit, you are only protecting that win if you never ever play again. Otherwise it doesn't matter if you play 20 more hands today or 20 more hands tomorrow or 20 more hands next month or next year. What ever is going to happen is going to happen. It is really all one big session. So again, the only way to protect a big win (positive variance) is to quit and never play again.
If playing with an advantage (counting) stop limits should be based on time (short sessions to avoid detection), or a predetermined exit point like exiting on a certain negative count. Session limits should never be based on monetary amounts or wins and losses.
About the only thing in this thread that made any sense to me was the advise to NOT exit mid-shoe during a high count. The only exception to this would be when the enemy troops (security and suits) are amassing and a backoff/barring is imminent. And even then, I have had times when I tried to squeeze in one more round, while pocketing my chips and preparing for an emergency exit. lol
The point is that you have to quit sometime. Whether or not it is all one big session doesn't change the fact that you will not spend, literally, the rest of your entire life playing Blackjack, so ahead when quitting will provide you a quick emotional boost as long as you are not leaving an advantageous situation.
It's true that it's only a few bets, but it gives you confidence. It reminds me of when I played football. I was kicker/punter/tight end and back up quarterback. If I were practicing kicking at a given time, I wouldn't leave on a missed field goal. I understand there's no money involved there, and you shouldn't chase losses to the point that it puts you on tilt, but the point is that making a field goal successfully being the last thing I did in practice gave me a boost and saw me walking in with confidence in the next practice or a gametime situation. Maybe the comparison is not an apt one, but it's how I look at it.
I might even take my five units and only leave the table for fifteen minutes and then go back. I just like to get in the habit of walking away ahead.
that's what i thought when i started counting in AC in the summer of 85.
and here we are 27 years later and i just got off the bus with 8k...
if i am not mistaken, ace is not fully committed to this endeavor
and is trying to get some enjoyment out of his trips as well.
there is something to be said for modest gains.
i think he also had a bad start this year and was in the hole for 10 or 20k.
Quote: kewljI am a bit confused by this whole thread. The first question that comes to mind is are you counting and spreading bets with the count or just playing? With talk of playing at $100 and $200 tables, if there is even a small spread involved, you better be bankrolled much bigger than the $10 grand you mentioned in your last trip report, otherwise you have a real strong chance of going bust for the trip. Maybe that is acceptable to you, I don't know.
The second thing confusing to me is you talk like winning or losing $800 or a thousand is a big deal, but yet you are playing $100 and $200 min tables. If you are doing any kind of spreading, that is one big bet. Even if not spreading that is 4 or 5 units. Swings like that are so minor, I wouldn't even call them a swing. It's just completely normal fluctuation.
Third. Stop limits? or Session limits? Really?? This idea of protecting a win is just complete non-sense. It's just positive valiance associated with normal play. If you get up $1000 and quit, you are only protecting that win if you never ever play again. Otherwise it doesn't matter if you play 20 more hands today or 20 more hands tomorrow or 20 more hands next month or next year. What ever is going to happen is going to happen. It is really all one big session. So again, the only way to protect a big win (positive variance) is to quit and never play again.
If playing with an advantage (counting) stop limits should be based on time (short sessions to avoid detection), or a predetermined exit point like exiting on a certain negative count. Session limits should never be based on monetary amounts or wins and losses.
About the only thing in this thread that made any sense to me was the advise to NOT exit mid-shoe during a high count. The only exception to this would be when the enemy troops (security and suits) are amassing and a backoff/barring is imminent. And even then, I have had times when I tried to squeeze in one more round, while pocketing my chips and preparing for an emergency exit. lol
Kewl - most of what you say is true and applicable to a counter that is seeking to make blackjack a part-time or even full-time job. I like to win and I like to socialize and play. I use a weak counting system (Speed Count) but I love it for its ease of use and effectiveness in my blackjack lifetime.
per your 'questions" -
1-the bankroll is fluid - if I need more - I get more
2-$1k is a big deal - no matter what the bankroll is - I love how people these days think of $1k as no big deal - if you watch television for any length of time you will see advertisements for short term $1k loans people are desperate to get - no matter how much money I or anyone else has, $1k must still be respected
3-if session limits are no good as it is a lifetime of blackjack play continuously running from shoe to shoe - why ever stop at all? Why not, if in a horrific losing streak - stop? If it is all one big shoe, it should not matter if you lost 50 hands in a row or won 50 hands in a row, you should plow through it all and play play play...no?
Thanks for your contribution to this thread - I love diversity of opinions!
Quote: WongBowhoa, won't spend the rest of your life playing blackjack?
that's what i thought when i started counting in AC in the summer of 85.
and here we are 27 years later and i just got off the bus with 8k...
if i am not mistaken, ace is not fully committed to this endeavor
and is trying to get some enjoyment out of his trips as well.
there is something to be said for modest gains.
i think he also had a bad start this year and was in the hole for 10 or 20k.
WongBo - hey there my friend - I enjoy the casino atmosphere, food, fun, ladies and playing blackjack - I do not use a huge spread because I am on the conservative side - it does not take huge swings to get my adrenaline rushing - sure, could i play $1k per hand and be up $10k now instead of $1k - yes, but I have fun enough with the way I play :)
Yes, the beginning of this year was not kind to me but, I am still up for the year!!!
Quote: Mission146If it's all just one big session and you are not leaving during a positive count, might I ask, why wouldn't you stop? I think that Psychology is a huge factor in any form of gambling, and you simply have an emotional improvement and tend to be more focused if you leave ahead, if only ahead in a small way. It prepares you for next time, I would think.
The point is that you have to quit sometime. Whether or not it is all one big session doesn't change the fact that you will not spend, literally, the rest of your entire life playing Blackjack, so ahead when quitting will provide you a quick emotional boost as long as you are not leaving an advantageous situation.
It's true that it's only a few bets, but it gives you confidence. It reminds me of when I played football. I was kicker/punter/tight end and back up quarterback. If I were practicing kicking at a given time, I wouldn't leave on a missed field goal. I understand there's no money involved there, and you shouldn't chase losses to the point that it puts you on tilt, but the point is that making a field goal successfully being the last thing I did in practice gave me a boost and saw me walking in with confidence in the next practice or a gametime situation. Maybe the comparison is not an apt one, but it's how I look at it.
I might even take my five units and only leave the table for fifteen minutes and then go back. I just like to get in the habit of walking away ahead.
Well said Mission - if it is all one giant lifelong shoe of blackjack - then it should never matter if you leave up or down, in a positive shoe or a negative shoe - since the lifelong shoe will work out the same way no matter what - I like having emotions in the game - it makes it fun and I play the way I like to play
Quote: WongBowhoa, won't spend the rest of your life playing blackjack?
that's what i thought when i started counting in AC in the summer of 85.
and here we are 27 years later and i just got off the bus with 8k...
if i am not mistaken, ace is not fully committed to this endeavor
and is trying to get some enjoyment out of his trips as well.
there is something to be said for modest gains.
i think he also had a bad start this year and was in the hole for 10 or 20k.
I meant that, very literally, in life, you will do something besides play BJ, so the stopping point doesn't matter provided you do not stop in an advantageous position. I will leave Ace to account for his motivations.
stay in your comfort zone and enjoy the ride.
if you take 1000 per session once a week thats 50k a year,
don't let anyone tell you that isn't enough if you think it is.
Quote: WongBothe only year i've lost money to the casinos was the year i tried to go bigger than my usual range.
stay in your comfort zone and enjoy the ride.
if you take 1000 per session once a week thats 50k a year,
don't let anyone tell you that isn't enough if you think it is.
Exactly - I have put my past 3 years statistics in a thread on here - they speak for themselves. Sure - if my spread was bigger, I would be up more - but, I am HAPPY!!! :-)
Quote: aceofspadesWell said Mission - if it is all one giant lifelong shoe of blackjack - then it should never matter if you leave up or down, in a positive shoe or a negative shoe - since the lifelong shoe will work out the same way no matter what - I like having emotions in the game - it makes it fun and I play the way I like to play
Thanks for the compliment, Ace. It means a good deal, coming from you.
Quote: aceofspades
If it is all one big shoe, it should not matter if you lost 50 hands in a row or won 50 hands in a row, you should plow through it all and play play play...no?
Theoretically, exactly correct. At the end of the year my results will be based largely on one thing. How many hands I played. Once you accept that short term results have absolutely no meaning, you can focus on the long-term. 'Plowing through' short term result is an excellent way to put it and think about it. These results have absolutely no meaning and will have no influence on the long term results. Think in terms of expected value, because that's what long term results are based on.
I know that every hand I play is worth about 75 cents to me. This number differs depending on game conditions, rules and spread, but the average for all games that I play, is pretty close to 75 cents per hand. This is the expected value of each hand that I play. Now in the short term, this means nothing. If I play 20 hands my expected value is $15, but my actual results can be anywhere from plus several hundred to down several hundred. This is standard deviation and there is a formula to find the exact range. If I play 100 hands, my expected value is $75, but again actual results could be anywhere from plus to minus a couple thousand dollars. Now the more total hands you play, the smaller this range of actual results becomes (percentage-wise), until you have played enough hands, you can be pretty sure the expected results will come in pretty close to actual results.
So my focus is to play upwards of 100,000 hands per year, which I accomplish most years, and at the end of the year (long term) my results will be pretty close to what they should be, despite some nasty short term rides along the way. But if every time I had a big winning or losing day, I quit early, then those long term, meaningful results of 100,000 hands gets further away. So quitting early, even if it is after a huge win, costs me money in the all important long run.
Now, I said 'theoretically' because there are issues that can cloud this plowing on process, issues like funds availability. Except low limit player, you aren't going to carry your entire bankroll on you at all times. So a substantial loss, depleting 'playing bankroll' may require ending early until you can replenish funds from home or a trip to the bank, or where ever you one keeps his funds.
Quote: kewljTheoretically, exactly correct. At the end of the year my results will be based largely on one thing. How many hands I played. Once you accept that short term results have absolutely no meaning, you can focus on the long-term. 'Plowing through' short term result is an excellent way to put it and think about it. These results have absolutely no meaning and will have no influence on the long term results. Think in terms of expected value, because that's what long term results are based on.
I know that every hand I play is worth about 75 cents to me. This number differs depending on game conditions, rules and spread, but the average for all games that I play, is pretty close to 75 cents per hand. This is the expected value of each hand that I play. Now in the short term, this means nothing. If I play 20 hands my expected value is $15, but my actual results can be anywhere from plus several hundred to down several hundred. This is standard deviation and there is a formula to find the exact range. If I play 100 hands, my expected value is $75, but again actual results could be anywhere from plus to minus a couple thousand dollars. Now the more total hands you play, the smaller this range of actual results becomes (percentage-wise), until you have played enough hands, you can be pretty sure the expected results will come in pretty close to actual results.
So my focus is to play upwards of 100,000 hands per year, which I accomplish most years, and at the end of the year (long term) my results will be pretty close to what they should be, despite some nasty short term rides along the way. But if every time I had a big winning or losing day, I quit early, then those long term, meaningful results of 100,000 hands gets further away. So quitting early, even if it is after a huge win, costs me money in the all important long run.
Now, I said 'theoretically' because there are issues that can cloud this plowing on process, issues like funds availability. Except low limit player, you aren't going to carry your entire bankroll on you at all times. So a substantial loss, depleting 'playing bankroll' may require ending early until you can replenish funds from home or a trip to the bank, or where ever you one keeps his funds.
Kewl - this is where you lose me - when you state that "at the end of the year" regarding your results - if we are all jeu playing one gigantic shoe for our lifetimes, the one year mark is arbitrary - sure, a year is an easy way to divide things, but a continuous shoe should be judged continuously - from day 1 til the final day you decide to play - I too have used the year marker but the lifelong shoe is actually a better way to judge progress
Thoughts...?
Quote: aceofspades
2-$1k is a big deal - no matter what the bankroll is - I love how people these days think of $1k as no big deal - if you watch television for any length of time you will see advertisements for short term $1k loans people are desperate to get - no matter how much money I or anyone else has, $1k must still be respected
You are right about this, Ace. $1000 is a lot of money. In my personal life, if I buy something for a thousand dollars, it is a big deal. It's something I have to plan for. I didn't mean to sound so nonchalant about it. Playing blackjack for a living, even at the mid-level limits that I play requires a large bankroll and placing large bets. My top bet is in the mid black range, varying from location to location, depending on what I perceive as their tolerance level. It is not at all unusual to have a split and doubledown or a couple split hands, sometimes 2 or 3 split hands with a double or two. It's easy to lose sight and forget that a couple thousand dollars you have on the felt at any given round, can be a months salary for some folks. My bad.
Quote: aceofspadesKewl - this is where you lose me - when you state that "at the end of the year" regarding your results - if we are all jeu playing one gigantic shoe for our lifetimes, the one year mark is arbitrary - sure, a year is an easy way to divide things, but a continuous shoe should be judged continuously - from day 1 til the final day you decide to play - I too have used the year marker but the lifelong shoe is actually a better way to judge progress
Thoughts...?
This is true, Ace. But our government requires us to report earning yearly, so this seems a reasonable breaking point.
I don't think there are many serious counters here, and most of us are for lack of a better term ploppies (but educated ploppies). Maybe 3 out of 100 here are serious counters/AP. The rest of us just like to play. This ain't BJ21.com.Quote: kewljStuff about counting
Quote: kewljPoint noted, teddys. I will try to restrain myself and limit my contributions to those threads.
kewl - are you leaving this thread? Insight is always welcome from professional players.
Quote: kewljPoint noted, teddys. I will try to restrain myself and limit my contributions to those threads.
I think you had some valid questions since aceofspades frequently mentions the count, but also exhibited some distinctly non-AP characteristics. Now it seems like we're all on the same page: he does some counting, but with a minimal spread and mostly focusing on the social/fun aspect, with an expectation to be slightly ahead over the long term (my paraphrasing, sorry if that's not exactly correct acepfospades).
Anyway, your observations are useful for any other burgeoning APs (like myself), so thanks for your input.
