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5 votes (14.7%)
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1 vote (2.94%)
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34 members have voted

Wizard
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Wizard
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October 22nd, 2020 at 2:53:19 AM permalink
Quote: rdw4potus

Isn't the buffet 60% less than the Starbucks game? 10 nickels versus 5 quarters?



The Starbucks game is 5 nickels.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
Mental
Mental
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Thanks for this post from:
JoemanunJonodiousgambit
October 22nd, 2020 at 8:36:21 PM permalink
Quote: billryan

Would you say Powerball is a positive EV if you factor in the one in a billion chance of hitting the top prize?

The game in question will return 94% to the thousands of people who play it and 105% to the one person who basically gets hit by lightning. To say that the game has an Ev of $ten dollars or more an hour seems very wrong as every person who plays it, with one exception is playing a very poor game.


Actually, the game does have an expected value of $50/hr for both the lucky player and the others. You are confusing EV with realized gains or losses.

Quote:

When you start including once in a lifetime events into a games ev, the formula seems flawed.


Clearly, Powerball is a positive EV if the math says it is +EV. The math for expectation value is clear and unambiguous. I think you meant to ask me if I think the Powerball lottery is an opportunity that I want to partake in as an AP, 'given in the one in a billion chance of hitting the top prize?'

I would approach this the same way I approached the game at Red Rock. What is the variance, what is the EV, what is the hourly expected profit, and what is my bankroll? You have not laid out a specific payout structure or overlay for your hypothetical lottery, but I can tell you that I have nowhere near the bankroll to attack a big lottery like Powerball without substantial risk of ruin. I don't need to have all the numbers nailed down to know this.

I have most of the numbers nailed down for the $150K Red Rock quarter SRF progressive. I don't know the meter rate or the number of seat or the level of competition for the progressive. For example, if competitors play 9 out of 10 hands because there are five seats and I am there 50% of the time, I will only play about 150K hands per chase and I don't get back all of my own meter advance back if competition intensifies as the meter grows.. If I lock the game up (with help of a team), I will have to fund 1.5M hands per chase, on average. These details make a small difference to playability. Still, I could run bad on a long series of plays like the Red Rock game or watch someone else hit the SRF ten times and I would still have a huge bankroll left. The math tells me I have enough bankroll because the variance is much lower than the variance of my normal gambling regimen, and that is easily within my bankroll.

I am not "including once in a lifetime events into a games ev" -- I am comparing the variance of a gambling opportunity to my lifetime variance, and it is tiny in comparison. For other gamblers, the variance might seem huge and they do not have the bankroll or the stomach to take on the opportunity.

I am saying that there is a well-established mathematical framework for approaching these kinds of questions. You might want to try and use it rather than listening to your gut.
Wizard
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Wizard
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ChuckleberryVegasrider
December 2nd, 2020 at 5:17:53 PM permalink
I paid a visit to the Red Rock today, in part to check on the Reversible Royal jackpots. Here is an update:

Bank by Starbucks:
Oct 19: $40,389
Dec 2: $40,741

Bank by buffet:
Oct 19: $73,860
Dec 2: $75,489

Here is my original article about these 105%+ games.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
USpapergames
USpapergames
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December 2nd, 2020 at 6:59:17 PM permalink
Honestly, I wouldn't believe these claims of a 5% player edge for video poker in 2020 if this information wasn't coming from you. Anyone else & I would just assume they got their numbers wrong. A .05℅player edge of .05% I could see, but somebody clearly made a mistake with a 5% edge. It's a heck of a lot of math to check but I will when I get the time, but for now congrats on the find. If I lived in Vegas I would murder this machine from sunrise to sunset, at least till they changed the payouts lol.
Math is the only true form of knowledge
Wizard
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Wizard
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December 2nd, 2020 at 9:27:35 PM permalink
Quote: USpapergames

Honestly, I wouldn't believe these claims of a 5% player edge for video poker in 2020 if this information wasn't coming from you.



Thanks for your faith in me. Please read my article (linked above) for the full rules.

I'm quite sure the reason these games are not being pounded is the bet amount is small, thus the hourly expected win is also small, and that much of the return is in the reversible royal, which could take months of play to hit. Probably not a good Kelly bet for most professional gamblers.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
AlanMendelson
AlanMendelson
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December 3rd, 2020 at 2:37:42 AM permalink
There's another reason these games are not being pounded, Wizard: seating restrictions. Did you happen to check the number of chairs at each grouping of machines?

When Governor Sisolak ordered 50% occupancy chairs were removed. More chairs were removed with the new 25% occupancy.

Chances are high that if you moved a chair to an open machine another player or security or a slot attendant would say something to you.
Mental
Mental
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December 3rd, 2020 at 3:49:00 AM permalink
Quote: USpapergames

Honestly, I wouldn't believe these claims of a 5% player edge for video poker in 2020 if this information wasn't coming from you. Anyone else & I would just assume they got their numbers wrong. A .05℅player edge of .05% I could see, but somebody clearly made a mistake with a 5% edge. It's a heck of a lot of math to check but I will when I get the time, but for now congrats on the find. If I lived in Vegas I would murder this machine from sunrise to sunset, at least till they changed the payouts lol.



It is pretty easy to put a lower bound on the ROI. If you used basic strategy ignoring the sequential RF, one out of 60 RFs would end up being forward or reverse sequential by accident. This falls to one out of 32 if you value SRFs more than life itself and draw for every RF where the draw could be a SRF.. Just adjust the value of the RF in any VP calculator for these ratios of jackpot SRFs and you will get the ROI by favoring RFs but not specifically sequentially ordered draws. You will see very high ROIs. Getting the optimal strategy requires doing some real work.

For more info, look at my thread: https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/video-poker/35213-handling-sequential-royals-in-an-video-poker-analyzer/
Wizard
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Wizard
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December 3rd, 2020 at 5:13:40 AM permalink
Quote: AlanMendelson

There's another reason these games are not being pounded, Wizard: seating restrictions. Did you happen to check the number of chairs at each grouping of machines?



Good point. It seemed to me at the time I was there, around 1:00 PM on a Wednesday, there were still empty seats at both banks.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
AlanMendelson
AlanMendelson
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December 3rd, 2020 at 5:51:07 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

It seemed to me at the time I was there, around 1:00 PM on a Wednesday, there were still empty seats at both banks.



Yes. Empty seats by design.
SOOPOO
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December 3rd, 2020 at 6:21:10 AM permalink
I think you should include a ‘tax cost per hour’ in your calculations. Winning a Jackpot of $45k + is difficult to ‘wash’

Mike.... if I told you I could guarantee that on your next dollar bet you could win $45k, what would you say the real EV of that bet is for you, tax effect included?

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