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Wizard
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October 19th, 2020 at 3:37:24 PM permalink
I confess to hijacking the HANDLING SEQUENTIAL ROYALS IN AN VIDEO POKER ANALYZER thread with discussion about a reversible royal game at the Red Rock. I have since gone onto writing the following article about it.

VIDEO POKER OPPORTUNITY WITH 105% RETURN

I welcome all comments about that article. After this post, I will copy and paste a post I made prior to writing that article from the Sequential Royal thread.

The question for the poll is would you play this game?
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
Wizard
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October 19th, 2020 at 3:37:49 PM permalink


I paid a visit to the Red Rock to confirm this game. The screen above shows the jackpot as of about 1PM on Oct 17.

The same jackpot is available on six different base games. The following table shows those games with the return for all royals paying 800x the bet amount.

Base game Pay table Return
Bonus Poker Deluxe 6-5 0.953611
Jacks or Better 6-5 0.949961
Triple Double Bonus 7-5 0.949178
Double Double Bonus 6-5 0.946569
Double Bonus 8-5 0.941897
Bonus Poker 10-8-5-3-1 0.941829


As you can see, Bonus Poker Deluxe offers the best value.

The next table shows the return with optimal strategy, including card position for 8-6 Bonus Poker Deluxe. The lower right cell shows a return of 105.22%!

This has an expected profit of 1.3 cents per hand. Assuming a playing speed of 1000 hands per hour, the expected win per hour is $13.05, not including the value of points earned.

Outcome Win Combinations Probability Return
Reversible Royal Flush 807,782 67,567,248 0.000001 0.109525
Royal Flush 4,000 2,531,111,347 0.000025 0.020317
Straight Flush 250 10,545,248,235 0.000106 0.005290
Four of a Kind 400 246,151,065,684 0.002470 0.197580
Full House 30 811,309,337,868 0.008140 0.048842
Flush 25 1,067,259,148,415 0.010708 0.053542
Straight 20 1,275,953,861,466 0.012802 0.051209
Three of a Kind 15 7,722,917,814,918 0.077488 0.232464
Two Pair 5 10,770,132,885,066 0.108062 0.108062
Jacks or Better 5 22,463,692,195,905 0.225389 0.225389
All Other 0 55,295,592,349,848 0.554808 0.000000
Totals 99,666,152,586,000 1.000000 1.052220



The next table shows the return with optimal strategy, NOT including strategy changes for card position. It is based on an average royal of 17,396 coins, which is a weighted average between 1/60 the jackpot and 59/60 a win of 4000 coins. The lower right cell shows a return of 103.56%.

Outcome Prize Combinations Probability Return
Royal Flush 17,396 52,825,312 0.000032 0.110643
Straight Flush 250 160,811,571 0.000097 0.004841
Four of a Kind 400 4,128,394,310 0.002485 0.198827
Full House 30 13,632,719,598 0.008207 0.049242
Flush 25 18,607,023,152 0.011202 0.056008
Straight 20 20,468,179,301 0.012322 0.049288
Three of a Kind 15 129,801,408,860 0.078142 0.234425
Two Pair 5 181,189,140,336 0.109078 0.109078
Jacks or Better 5 370,795,511,313 0.223223 0.223223
All Other 0 922,266,529,347 0.555213 0.000000
Totals 1,661,102,543,100 1.000000 1.035574




The next table shows the return with optimal strategy for non-progressive 8/6 Bonus Poker Deluxe. The lower right cell shows a return of 101.97%.

Outcome Prize Combinations Probability Return
Royal Flush 17,396 40,987,885 0.000025 0.085850
Straight Flush 250 179,539,017 0.000108 0.005404
Four of a Kind 400 4,136,976,035 0.002491 0.199240
Full House 30 13,653,938,163 0.008220 0.049319
Flush 25 18,041,709,548 0.010861 0.054306
Straight 20 21,688,438,418 0.013057 0.052227
Three of a Kind 15 129,936,095,954 0.078223 0.234668
Two Pair 5 181,027,999,728 0.108981 0.108981
Jacks or Better 5 381,597,343,986 0.229725 0.229725
All Other 0 910,799,514,366 0.548310 0.000000
Total 1,661,102,543,100 1.000000 1.019720
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
AlanMendelson
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October 19th, 2020 at 4:14:46 PM permalink
In the Red Rock casino near the buffet, but near the restrooms on the opposite wall, there are four reversible royal 5-cent machines with the jackpot north of $73,000.

Are these different from the machines you spotted or did the meter rise dramatically in just a couple of days?

If they are a different set of machines have you checked their paytables, etc.?
Wizard
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October 19th, 2020 at 4:33:04 PM permalink
Quote: AlanMendelson

In the Red Rock casino near the buffet, but near the restrooms on the opposite wall, there are four reversible royal 5-cent machines with the jackpot north of $73,000.

Are these different from the machines you spotted or did the meter rise dramatically in just a couple of days?

If they are a different set of machines have you checked their paytables, etc.?



The machines I refer to are near the Starbucks in the food court (as opposed to the one by the gift shop). I will have to return to look for these $73,000 jackpot games.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
AxelWolf
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October 19th, 2020 at 7:53:36 PM permalink
This pipe dream is worth between $40 and $70 an hour depending on how fast/accurate you play and whatever possible comps, promos and mail. Good luck, and pray you don't go 5 cycles only to have Grandma Ima Winner snap you off on her first $20.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
Wizard
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October 19th, 2020 at 9:50:12 PM permalink
Can anyone else confirm or deny this $73,000 nickel game by the buffet?
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
tringlomane
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October 19th, 2020 at 11:32:03 PM permalink
FYI, on your WOO page you wrote this.

"The bottom line is if a reversible royal pays 10,000 coins, it adds 0.45% to 0.50% to the return, depending on the particular game and pay table. A fair average to assume is 0.466%."

It should be 50,000 coins. Or 10000 for 1.
AlanMendelson
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October 20th, 2020 at 4:21:00 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Can anyone else confirm or deny this $73,000 nickel game by the buffet?



I sent you a photo.

There are only three of this, not four.
Wizard
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October 20th, 2020 at 7:26:11 AM permalink
Quote: AlanMendelson

I sent you a photo.

There are only three of this, not four.



Thanks Alan.

Strange there are two separate banks of games with enormous jackpots. Perhaps a rollover from some other jackpot that was removed?

Quote: tringlomane

FYI, on your WOO page you wrote this.

"The bottom line is if a reversible royal pays 10,000 coins, it adds 0.45% to 0.50% to the return, depending on the particular game and pay table. A fair average to assume is 0.466%."

It should be 50,000 coins. Or 10000 for 1.



Thanks, you're right.
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Vegasrider
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October 20th, 2020 at 1:35:38 PM permalink
What is the true meaning or definition of cycle in VP?
ChumpChange
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October 20th, 2020 at 1:41:12 PM permalink
If you're expecting a 105.22% payback and don't hit your sequential royal that pays 11% of the total payback, you're really playing a 94.25% machine. You'll need that sequential royal to break even.
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October 20th, 2020 at 2:32:28 PM permalink
Quote: ChumpChange

If you're expecting a 105.22% payback and don't hit your sequential royal that pays 11% of the total payback, you're really playing a 94.25% machine. You'll need that sequential royal to break even.



This is exactly correct.. There is less than 1 in a million chance (per deal) of making a sequential royal - and 11% of your equity is tied up in this long-shot. If you don't make a reversible royal, then this is a dog of a VP game.

And if you do hit the $40,000 jackpot remember that it will be reported to the IRS and income tax will take a bite out of it. It's difficult to be an AP.
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Wizard
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October 20th, 2020 at 8:01:48 PM permalink
I returned to the Red Rock today to investigate Alan's game.

Good news: The jackpot is almost twice as much.
Good news: Better base pay tables.
Bad news: Jackpot requires betting 10 coins (as opposed to 5 coins for the games by the Starbucks in the food court)

All things considered, the returns are nearly the same:

Starbucks: 105.22%
Buffet: 105.26%

The expected win per hour (assuming 1,000 bets per hour) is also much better:

Starbucks: $14.33/hr.
Buffet: $23.63/hr.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
Mental
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October 21st, 2020 at 6:32:42 AM permalink
Quote: ChumpChange

If you're expecting a 105.22% payback and don't hit your sequential royal that pays 11% of the total payback, you're really playing a 94.25% machine. You'll need that sequential royal to break even.



This is not the way any decent career AP looks at expected value. The play has an hourly EV and a variance per hand. Over a very long time frame, the standard deviation of an AP's results is determined only by their accumulated variance. There are a number of tools available to calculate risk of ruin and bankroll requirements. If an AP has an appropriate bankroll such that the the RoR is low, then the only question is is the EV/hour worth it versus other opportunities. The Kelly criteria are another way of deciding the same question. If the max bet is 25 or 50 cents and Kelly says you could risk $2 per hand if that was an option, then your bankroll is adequate to play this game.

There is no basis for removing any of the winning hands from the EV without putting it in context of bankroll calculations. For every single-line VP game that I know of, the most likely result over a session of exactly one hand is a 100% loss. Extending the logic of the comment above, I need a paying hand to get any ROI and I am unlikely to get a paying hand. Therefore, I should eliminate all paying hands from my EV calculation and assign every VP game with a 0% ROI if I intend to only play one hand. This is absurd.

The real question is does the gambler have the bankroll and stomach to undertake the variance offered by the opportunity. I have a cell in my spreadsheet that tracks my estimated variance for VP play. I have an accumulated lifetime variance of 140B dollars2 just from video poker and more from other forms of gambling. If I estimate that the total is really 160B dollars2, the square root of this is $400K. My lifetime standard deviation is roughly +/- $400K. If I added one SRF chase, it would be a drop in the ocean compared to my lifetime variance -- whether or not I hit the SRF.

Even if you don't have great records, you can easily estimate how much variance you incur in a year doing what you already do. You can see how this play stacks up in comparison to your other gambling. Variance is simply additive. Over the long term, a million dollars2 variance from chasing a SRF progressive is the same as a a million dollars2 of variance from blackjack. The variance of the game in the OP is about 18K.
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100xOdds
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October 21st, 2020 at 8:49:01 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

I returned to the Red Rock today to investigate Alan's game.

Good news: The jackpot is almost twice as much.
Good news: Better base pay tables.
Bad news: Jackpot requires betting 10 coins (as opposed to 5 coins for the games by the Starbucks in the food court)

All things considered, the returns are nearly the same:

Starbucks: 105.22%
Buffet: 105.26%

The expected win per hour (assuming 1,000 bets per hour) is also much better:

Starbucks: $14.33/hr.
Buffet: $23.63/hr.

you might want to clarify how come the buffet game is so much more per hr profit.
ie: that the starbucks game is .25 and the buffet one is nickels.

and what are pay tables offered at the buffet ones?
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billryan
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October 21st, 2020 at 9:16:11 AM permalink
Quote: Mental

This is not the way any decent career AP looks at expected value. The play has an hourly EV and a variance per hand. Over a very long time frame, the standard deviation of an AP's results is determined only by their accumulated variance. There are a number of tools available to calculate risk of ruin and bankroll requirements. If an AP has an appropriate bankroll such that the the RoR is low, then the only question is is the EV/hour worth it versus other opportunities. The Kelly criteria are another way of deciding the same question. If the max bet is 25 or 50 cents and Kelly says you could risk $2 per hand if that was an option, then your bankroll is adequate to play this game.

There is no basis for removing any of the winning hands from the EV without putting it in context of bankroll calculations. For every single-line VP game that I know of, the most likely result over a session of exactly one hand is a 100% loss. Extending the logic of the comment above, I need a paying hand to get any ROI and I am unlikely to get a paying hand. Therefore, I should eliminate all paying hands from my EV calculation and assign every VP game with a 0% ROI if I intend to only play one hand. This is absurd.

The real question is does the gambler have the bankroll and stomach to undertake the variance offered by the opportunity. I have a cell in my spreadsheet that tracks my estimated variance for VP play. I have an accumulated lifetime variance of 140B dollars2 just from video poker and more from other forms of gambling. If I estimate that the total is really 160B dollars2, the square root of this is $400K. My lifetime standard deviation is roughly +/- $400K. If I added one SRF chase, it would be a drop in the ocean compared to my lifetime variance -- whether or not I hit the SRF.

Even if you don't have great records, you can easily estimate how much variance you incur in a year doing what you already do. You can see how this play stacks up in comparison to your other gambling. Variance is simply additive. Over the long term, a million dollars2 variance from chasing a SRF progressive is the same as a a million dollars2 of variance from blackjack. The variance of the game in the OP is about 18K.




Would you say Powerball is a positive EV if you factor in the one in a billion chance of hitting the top prize?

The game in question will return 94% to the thousands of people who play it and 105% to the one person who basically gets hit by lightning. To say that the game has an Ev of $ten dollars or more an hour seems very wrong as every person who plays it, with one exception is playing a very poor game.
If a casino had a blackjack game where the dealer won all ties, but it offered a million-dollar prize if every player at the table got a suited BJ, and the dealer got a BJ in spades, would you call that game a +EV?
When you start including once in a lifetime events into a games ev, the formula seems flawed.
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DogHand
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October 21st, 2020 at 9:21:31 AM permalink
Quote: billryan

<snip>If a casino had a blackjack game where the dealer won all ties, but it offered a million-dollar prize if every player at the table got a suited BJ, and the dealer got a BJ in spades, would you call that game a +EV?<snip>



YES!..... If I could play heads-up ;-)

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October 21st, 2020 at 9:22:51 AM permalink
Quote: 100xOdds

you might want to clarify how come the buffet game is so much more per hr profit.
ie: that the starbucks game is .25 and the buffet one is nickels.

and what are pay tables offered at the buffet ones?



It's mainly because you can bet twice as much at the buffet games. The pay tables are stated in my article.
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rdw4potus
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October 21st, 2020 at 11:45:08 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

It's mainly because you can bet twice as much at the buffet games. The pay tables are stated in my article.



Isn't the buffet 60% less than the Starbucks game? 10 nickels versus 5 quarters?
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October 21st, 2020 at 11:58:14 AM permalink
No one is arguing that >1.00 EV isn't refreshing and exciting. We are pointing that with 13% of equity coming from Royal Flushes and 11% of equity coming from a "once in 700 billion" chance, that this game has unusually high variance and high risk of ruin, given a finite bankroll.

And again, there will be no escaping the Tax Man on a $40K or $80K jackpot. It is non-trivial to claim gambling losses to offset a big win, and with the standard deduction at about $20k it may be hard to avoid the tax man altogether. It may still be positive EV after taxes but these are factors worth mentioning.
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October 22nd, 2020 at 2:53:19 AM permalink
Quote: rdw4potus

Isn't the buffet 60% less than the Starbucks game? 10 nickels versus 5 quarters?



The Starbucks game is 5 nickels.
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Mental
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October 22nd, 2020 at 8:36:21 PM permalink
Quote: billryan

Would you say Powerball is a positive EV if you factor in the one in a billion chance of hitting the top prize?

The game in question will return 94% to the thousands of people who play it and 105% to the one person who basically gets hit by lightning. To say that the game has an Ev of $ten dollars or more an hour seems very wrong as every person who plays it, with one exception is playing a very poor game.


Actually, the game does have an expected value of $50/hr for both the lucky player and the others. You are confusing EV with realized gains or losses.

Quote:

When you start including once in a lifetime events into a games ev, the formula seems flawed.


Clearly, Powerball is a positive EV if the math says it is +EV. The math for expectation value is clear and unambiguous. I think you meant to ask me if I think the Powerball lottery is an opportunity that I want to partake in as an AP, 'given in the one in a billion chance of hitting the top prize?'

I would approach this the same way I approached the game at Red Rock. What is the variance, what is the EV, what is the hourly expected profit, and what is my bankroll? You have not laid out a specific payout structure or overlay for your hypothetical lottery, but I can tell you that I have nowhere near the bankroll to attack a big lottery like Powerball without substantial risk of ruin. I don't need to have all the numbers nailed down to know this.

I have most of the numbers nailed down for the $150K Red Rock quarter SRF progressive. I don't know the meter rate or the number of seat or the level of competition for the progressive. For example, if competitors play 9 out of 10 hands because there are five seats and I am there 50% of the time, I will only play about 150K hands per chase and I don't get back all of my own meter advance back if competition intensifies as the meter grows.. If I lock the game up (with help of a team), I will have to fund 1.5M hands per chase, on average. These details make a small difference to playability. Still, I could run bad on a long series of plays like the Red Rock game or watch someone else hit the SRF ten times and I would still have a huge bankroll left. The math tells me I have enough bankroll because the variance is much lower than the variance of my normal gambling regimen, and that is easily within my bankroll.

I am not "including once in a lifetime events into a games ev" -- I am comparing the variance of a gambling opportunity to my lifetime variance, and it is tiny in comparison. For other gamblers, the variance might seem huge and they do not have the bankroll or the stomach to take on the opportunity.

I am saying that there is a well-established mathematical framework for approaching these kinds of questions. You might want to try and use it rather than listening to your gut.
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Wizard
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December 2nd, 2020 at 5:17:53 PM permalink
I paid a visit to the Red Rock today, in part to check on the Reversible Royal jackpots. Here is an update:

Bank by Starbucks:
Oct 19: $40,389
Dec 2: $40,741

Bank by buffet:
Oct 19: $73,860
Dec 2: $75,489

Here is my original article about these 105%+ games.
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December 2nd, 2020 at 6:59:17 PM permalink
Honestly, I wouldn't believe these claims of a 5% player edge for video poker in 2020 if this information wasn't coming from you. Anyone else & I would just assume they got their numbers wrong. A .05℅player edge of .05% I could see, but somebody clearly made a mistake with a 5% edge. It's a heck of a lot of math to check but I will when I get the time, but for now congrats on the find. If I lived in Vegas I would murder this machine from sunrise to sunset, at least till they changed the payouts lol.
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December 2nd, 2020 at 9:27:35 PM permalink
Quote: USpapergames

Honestly, I wouldn't believe these claims of a 5% player edge for video poker in 2020 if this information wasn't coming from you.



Thanks for your faith in me. Please read my article (linked above) for the full rules.

I'm quite sure the reason these games are not being pounded is the bet amount is small, thus the hourly expected win is also small, and that much of the return is in the reversible royal, which could take months of play to hit. Probably not a good Kelly bet for most professional gamblers.
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AlanMendelson
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December 3rd, 2020 at 2:37:42 AM permalink
There's another reason these games are not being pounded, Wizard: seating restrictions. Did you happen to check the number of chairs at each grouping of machines?

When Governor Sisolak ordered 50% occupancy chairs were removed. More chairs were removed with the new 25% occupancy.

Chances are high that if you moved a chair to an open machine another player or security or a slot attendant would say something to you.
Mental
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December 3rd, 2020 at 3:49:00 AM permalink
Quote: USpapergames

Honestly, I wouldn't believe these claims of a 5% player edge for video poker in 2020 if this information wasn't coming from you. Anyone else & I would just assume they got their numbers wrong. A .05℅player edge of .05% I could see, but somebody clearly made a mistake with a 5% edge. It's a heck of a lot of math to check but I will when I get the time, but for now congrats on the find. If I lived in Vegas I would murder this machine from sunrise to sunset, at least till they changed the payouts lol.



It is pretty easy to put a lower bound on the ROI. If you used basic strategy ignoring the sequential RF, one out of 60 RFs would end up being forward or reverse sequential by accident. This falls to one out of 32 if you value SRFs more than life itself and draw for every RF where the draw could be a SRF.. Just adjust the value of the RF in any VP calculator for these ratios of jackpot SRFs and you will get the ROI by favoring RFs but not specifically sequentially ordered draws. You will see very high ROIs. Getting the optimal strategy requires doing some real work.

For more info, look at my thread: https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/video-poker/35213-handling-sequential-royals-in-an-video-poker-analyzer/
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December 3rd, 2020 at 5:13:40 AM permalink
Quote: AlanMendelson

There's another reason these games are not being pounded, Wizard: seating restrictions. Did you happen to check the number of chairs at each grouping of machines?



Good point. It seemed to me at the time I was there, around 1:00 PM on a Wednesday, there were still empty seats at both banks.
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AlanMendelson
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December 3rd, 2020 at 5:51:07 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

It seemed to me at the time I was there, around 1:00 PM on a Wednesday, there were still empty seats at both banks.



Yes. Empty seats by design.
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December 3rd, 2020 at 6:21:10 AM permalink
I think you should include a ‘tax cost per hour’ in your calculations. Winning a Jackpot of $45k + is difficult to ‘wash’

Mike.... if I told you I could guarantee that on your next dollar bet you could win $45k, what would you say the real EV of that bet is for you, tax effect included?
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December 3rd, 2020 at 6:45:12 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

I think you should include a ‘tax cost per hour’ in your calculations. Winning a Jackpot of $45k + is difficult to ‘wash’

Mike.... if I told you I could guarantee that on your next dollar bet you could win $45k, what would you say the real EV of that bet is for you, tax effect included?



If you go to an ordinary job and earn $45K for the year, that is difficult to 'wash' if , by 'wash', you mean fraudulently avoid paying taxes.
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rdw4potus
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December 3rd, 2020 at 7:28:37 AM permalink
Quote: AlanMendelson

Yes. Empty seats by design.



Well...no? If 3/4 of the chairs were removed from the floor to enforce the 25% occupancy cap, then the remaining chairs (the "empty seats") are designed to be sat in.
"So as the clock ticked and the day passed, opportunity met preparation, and luck happened." - Maurice Clarett
terapined
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December 3rd, 2020 at 7:44:06 AM permalink
Heading to the red rock canyon scenic drive today
Might as well stop by and check out these machines.
Probably just spend 20 dollars hoping lightning strikes
Its just a forum. Nothing here to get obsessed about.
SOOPOO
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December 3rd, 2020 at 9:22:30 AM permalink
Quote: Mental

If you go to an ordinary job and earn $45K for the year, that is difficult to 'wash' if , by 'wash', you mean fraudulently avoid paying taxes.



I didn’t necessarily mean fraudulently. If you play 100 hours before you hit it you certainly have a few thousand to legally write off.

But I’ll agree with you that most who attack this type of opportunity do use ‘fraudulent’ techniques. When it comes to taxes.
DRich
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December 3rd, 2020 at 9:27:05 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

I think you should include a ‘tax cost per hour’ in your calculations. Winning a Jackpot of $45k + is difficult to ‘wash’

Mike.... if I told you I could guarantee that on your next dollar bet you could win $45k, what would you say the real EV of that bet is for you, tax effect included?



I believe almost 100% of gamblers cheat on their taxes by not claiming all wins.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
USpapergames
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December 3rd, 2020 at 9:54:46 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

I think you should include a ‘tax cost per hour’ in your calculations. Winning a Jackpot of $45k + is difficult to ‘wash’

Mike.... if I told you I could guarantee that on your next dollar bet you could win $45k, what would you say the real EV of that bet is for you, tax effect included?



This question is just a massive variable. I'm definitely not the all-knowing tax man but I do know that the amount of tax you pay depends on your yearly income. I believe the minimum federal tax is 35% so if your income was nothing other than the jackpot that's still a great reward on top of a machine that already has a positive E.V. in all its other payouts! Sounds to me like anyone with the knowledge of how to play video poker optimally could make around 5x minimum wage playing that machine!
Math is the only true form of knowledge
SOOPOO
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December 3rd, 2020 at 10:01:45 AM permalink
Quote: USpapergames

This question is just a massive variable. I'm definitely not the all-knowing tax man but I do know that the amount of tax you pay depends on your yearly income. I believe the minimum federal tax is 35% so if your income was nothing other than the jackpot that's still a great reward on top of a machine that already has a positive E.V. in all its other payouts! Sounds to me like anyone with the knowledge of how to play video poker optimally could make around 5x minimum wage playing that machine!

. It is my understanding that it has a significant -EV if you eliminate the value of the big jackpot.

Minimum federal tax is less than 35%.

As far as ‘making’ 5x minimum wage.... I think it is fairer to say what the EV per hour is. MOST people if they just play one machine hoping to hit it will actually lose money.
Wizard
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December 3rd, 2020 at 10:06:48 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

I think you should include a ‘tax cost per hour’ in your calculations. Winning a Jackpot of $45k + is difficult to ‘wash’



I've had this comment before with other games. No matter what cost I arbitrarily decide, 99% of readers will disagree with it. So I leave adjusting for taxes up to the dealer.
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Wizard
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December 3rd, 2020 at 10:08:05 AM permalink
Quote: terapined

Heading to the red rock canyon scenic drive today
Might as well stop by and check out these machines.
Probably just spend 20 dollars hoping lightning strikes



Let me know if they demand a reservation to do the scenic drive.

Check out the cake by T-Bones.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
terapined
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December 3rd, 2020 at 11:11:10 AM permalink
By the buffet
75,522.63
2 empty seats on one side but 3rd seat a smoker
Other side 1 empty seat so have to sit next to someone
Starbucks
40,748.25
2 seats empty, not sitting next to anybody and 2 players nonsmokers
Going in and see if I can strike lightening
See how long to lose 10 bucks lol
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Mental
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December 3rd, 2020 at 11:27:25 AM permalink
Quote: USpapergames

I believe the minimum federal tax is 35% so if your income was nothing other than the jackpot that's still a great reward on top of a machine that already has a positive E.V. in all its other payouts! Sounds to me like anyone with the knowledge of how to play video poker optimally could make around 5x minimum wage playing that machine!



The minimum US tax rate is actually negative for those with an earned income credit. When I was a graduate student, I asked my professor to give me a taxable job instead a a tax-free job because my tax rate was negative. https://www.irs.gov/credits-deductions/individuals/earned-income-tax-credit

For people not eligible for the EIC, the minimum tax US rate is 0% and tens of millions of people pay at this 0% federal rate.
Here are some non-zero tax brackets:
2020 Federal Income Tax Brackets and Rates
Rate For Single Individuals For Married Individuals Filing Joint Returns
10% Up to $9,875 Up to $19,750
12% $9,876 to $40,125 $19,751 to $80,250
22% $40,126 to $85,525 $80,251 to $171,050
24% $85,526 to $163,300 $171,051 to $326,600
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Mental
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December 3rd, 2020 at 11:37:10 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

I didn’t necessarily mean fraudulently. If you play 100 hours before you hit it you certainly have a few thousand to legally write off.



Breaking news: Losses are a bad thing!

You don't ever want losses. You should never pass up a +EV opportunity because it does not generate enough losses.

Fake losses on player's account are a different matter.
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terapined
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December 3rd, 2020 at 11:47:18 AM permalink
Quote: terapined

By the buffet
75,522.63
2 empty seats on one side but 3rd seat a smoker
Other side 1 empty seat so have to sit next to someone
Starbucks
40,748.25
2 seats empty, not sitting next to anybody and 2 players nonsmokers
Going in and see if I can strike lightening
See how long to lose 10 bucks lol


Played about 30min
Won 6 bucks
Tired of playing, want to be outside, not inside.
Onto the scenic drive
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USpapergames
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December 3rd, 2020 at 12:34:46 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

. It is my understanding that it has a significant -EV if you eliminate the value of the big jackpot.

Minimum federal tax is less than 35%.

As far as ‘making’ 5x minimum wage.... I think it is fairer to say what the EV per hour is. MOST people if they just play one machine hoping to hit it will actually lose money.



So your saying that the machines jackpot is so overpriced that it's paying out positive E.V. not just on it's probability of success but making up for all the lost E.V. on every other payout? Now I definitely need to look into the math on this game :( That jackpot has to be so far from its default payouts that any operator should spot it!
Math is the only true form of knowledge
USpapergames
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December 3rd, 2020 at 12:39:25 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Thanks for your faith in me. Please read my article (linked above) for the full rules.

I'm quite sure the reason these games are not being pounded is the bet amount is small, thus the hourly expected win is also small, and that much of the return is in the reversible royal, which could take months of play to hit. Probably not a good Kelly bet for most professional gamblers.



How small of a bet amount do you think it was? $0.25 max won't get me coming there :/
Math is the only true form of knowledge
terapined
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December 3rd, 2020 at 1:47:28 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Let me know if they demand a reservation to do the scenic drive.

Check out the cake by T-Bones.


I got to the scenic drive
There is a sign that said reservations required
Oh no
Another sign said don't back up due to spikes
I pull up to the station and tell them I have no reservation.
They said 17 bucks
Woohoo
It was magnificent
Took a lot of pics
Stopped at all the parking spots
Disappointed how short it was.

Buffet
75,533.03
All seats filled
Smoker I noticed earlier before my drive still there
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SOOPOO
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December 3rd, 2020 at 2:33:52 PM permalink
Quote: USpapergames

So your saying that the machines jackpot is so overpriced that it's paying out positive E.V. not just on it's probability of success but making up for all the lost E.V. on every other payout? Now I definitely need to look into the math on this game :( That jackpot has to be so far from its default payouts that any operator should spot it!



That is the whole point of this thread! Duh....
Mental
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December 3rd, 2020 at 3:46:17 PM permalink
Quote: USpapergames

So your saying that the machines jackpot is so overpriced that it's paying out positive E.V. not just on it's probability of success but making up for all the lost E.V. on every other payout? Now I definitely need to look into the math on this game :( That jackpot has to be so far from its default payouts that any operator should spot it!



A long time ago, I played on a $1 Joker Wild progressive at Showboat that reached an ROI of 105.7%. I was trying to get the operator to spot it and shut it down so they would not lose money. Before I could alert them, my wife hit it for $12.7K. Women always mess things up!
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AxelWolf
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December 3rd, 2020 at 4:25:15 PM permalink
Quote: Mental

A long time ago, I played on a $1 Joker Wild progressive at Showboat that reached an ROI of 105.7%. I was trying to get the operator to spot it and shut it down so they would not lose money. Before I could alert them, my wife hit it for $12.7K. Women always mess things up!

Just curious why you care one way or another if the casino/operator loses or wins money? Why would they shut down a progressive just because it reached a positive state? This makes no sense and almost feels like you are trolling.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
rsactuary
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December 3rd, 2020 at 4:25:57 PM permalink
Quote: Mental

I was trying to get the operator to spot it and shut it down so they would not lose money. Before I could alert them, my wife hit it for $12.7K. !



I assure you they did not lose money on that. You don't understand how progressives work.
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